Foster concludes that, based on this data, “Almost 5,000 jobs have vanished in 18 months.”

Foster’s conclusion is wrong and here’s why.

The jobs data Foster is referring to comes from the Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS) and measures employment by place of residence, not total jobs created in a specific county.

For measuring jobs created in Leon County, the federal government publishes the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW).

Comparing the two sources of job information shows why Foster’s conclusion related to vanishing jobs is wrong.

In the table below, the QCEW data shows the “Jobs in Leon County” increased 9.8% from 2021 to 2025. The Leon County economy added 14,725 jobs during this period.

However, the data that measures “Leon Residents with Jobs in Leon County” only increased by 10,050 or 6.8% during this period. And as Foster points out, this number decreased in 2025.

The big story in this data is not the vanishing jobs but the vanishing people that still hold the jobs created in Leon County.

Since 2021 over 4,500 people with jobs in Leon County chose to move outside Leon County. And even more relevant is that most of this movement occurred recently, in 2024 and 2025.

Where did the people go? For the answer to that question, let’s turn to population growth.

The table below shows the latest census population numbers available for Leon, Jefferson and Wakulla counties from 2020 to 2025.

Foster argues that census data shows Leon County loss 1,400 residents in 2024. However, the most recent revisions do not support this decline.

The most recent data shows 2.3% population growth in Leon County over 2020-25, much less than the 8.9% for Florida over the same period and even less than the population growth in Wakulla (12.8%) and Jefferson (10.3%) counties.

Now it is becoming clear where the people with jobs in Leon County went – to Wakulla and Jefferson counties. And when they left, they kept their Leon County jobs.

Implications

The above analysis shifts the focus about the local economy from the Leon County job market to a question about why people are choosing to work in Leon County but live elsewhere.

The list of possible answers to this question is long and, in my opinion, includes housing affordability, local taxes, public school quality, crime and, yes, politics. This discussion will be left for another day.

However, regardless of the answer, If this trend continues, the Leon County economy will continue to create more jobs and eventually begin losing out on the benefits of the job growth.

For a great example of what this might look like, look no further than the Leon County School Board: declining enrollment, unused infrastructure, under paid teachers, and increasing property taxes!

The amendment, which will appear on the Nov. 3 general election ballot, would increase Florida’s homestead exemption for non-school taxes from the current $50,000 to $150,000 beginning Jan. 1, 2027, and to $250,000 beginning Jan. 1, 2028. The measure requires approval from at least 60% of voters statewide to take effect.

Property tax revenue is the primary funding source for Tallahassee’s General Fund and is projected to generate $77.7 million in Fiscal Year 2026. Those revenues fund approximately 94% of the Tallahassee Police Department budget, while also supporting parks and recreation, public infrastructure, children’s and adult services, and capital investments.

The projected losses represent a 13% reduction in taxable value in FY2028 and a 21% reduction in FY2029.

The proposal establishes a framework for future increases in homestead exemptions and directs the Legislature to create procedures that could eventually exempt all remaining assessed homestead value from taxation. City officials estimate that a complete elimination of homestead property taxes would create an annual funding gap of approximately $36 million, equivalent to about 40% of the City’s current property tax revenue and 10% of the general fund revenue.

Supporters of the amendment argue it would provide meaningful tax relief to homeowners. However, City officials note that the benefits would be limited to residents receiving a homestead exemption. Of approximately 89,000 households within Tallahassee city limits, about 25,500 households, or 28.6%, would directly benefit from lower property taxes.

The remaining 71% of households, many of them renters, would receive no direct tax reduction while continuing to contribute indirectly to property tax collections through rental payments. As a result, city officials contend that a majority of residents would continue paying for municipal services without receiving the proposed tax savings.

The amendment also would impose a five-year Florida residency requirement for new residents seeking the enhanced homestead exemption and would authorize local governments to adopt additional exemptions under certain circumstances.

City leaders say the recently implemented Voluntary Separation Incentive (VSI) program represents an important step toward preparing for potential future budget constraints if voters approve the amendment.

The proposed measure is expected to generate significant debate in the months leading up to the November election as local governments across Florida evaluate the impact of reduced property tax revenues on public safety, infrastructure, and other core services.

Spending Growth

From 2018 to 2026, COT general fund spending increased from $151.5 million in 2018 to $225.945 million in 2026, a 49.1% increase. During this same period, population growth (3.31%) and inflation (26.8%) totaled 30.1% growth.

The graph below shows that cumulative general fund spending growth since 2019 followed population and inflation growth from 2019 through 2023. However, from 2024 to 2026 spending accelerated relative to population growth and inflation rates.

If general fund spending had followed population and inflation growth rates since 2024, the 2026 proposed budget would have been approximately $197.0 million or $29.0 million less than the approved 2026 budget of $226.0 million.

City Responds to Spending Growth

Tallahassee City Commissioners recently voted 3-2 to offer “voluntary separation” to its entire workforce of 2,700 employees beginning in May. Eligible employees, which are those hired before Jan. 1, 2026, who agree would be paid $20,000 or 12 weeks of pay. Those employees would keep health insurance through the end of the calendar year. The city expects between 100-175 employees may separate.

“The program is intended to reduce and contain personnel expenses, minimize the impact of workforce reductions on employees and provide employees with an option if they’re considering retirement or other career opportunities,” Resource Management Director Robert Wigen said during the city’s latest budget hearing. The reduction in positions would assist in balancing Fiscal Year 2026’s budget, with more impact Fiscal Year 2027.

The item will come before the Board on Tuesday, May 26, 2026.

Originally, school board members talked about how the property tax revenue would be used just for teacher salaries. However, now that has changed and the language that will go before the voters in November will allow the new property tax revenue to be used for all school staff pay, not just teachers.

The property tax proposal – not to be confused with the half-penny sales tax – would raise approximately $24 million annually from Leon County property owners. That is a significant burden at a time when residents are already dealing with rising insurance costs, inflation, and higher property taxes driven by increasing home values. Before asking citizens for more money, the school board must demonstrate that it is managing current resources responsibly.

One of the biggest unanswered questions involves declining enrollment. Student population in Leon County Schools has been falling for at least the last five years. In most organizations, shrinking demand leads to restructuring and cost reductions. And while some cuts have been adopted for this year, new tax revenue could make it easier for officials to delay difficult but necessary decisions.

Also, while enrollment declined, the school board hired more administrators. Some have repeatedly asked why additional administrative positions are necessary when fewer students are attending district schools. To date, the district has failed to provide a convincing explanation.

Equally concerning is the lack of long-term planning. School districts across Florida facing enrollment declines have begun difficult but necessary conversations about consolidating campuses, closing underused schools, and streamlining operations. Leon County Schools has offered no comparable plan despite clear demographic trends.

Avoiding these discussions does not make the financial realities disappear. Maintaining underutilized facilities while expanding administrative overhead is not a sustainable strategy, particularly when district leaders are simultaneously asking homeowners for another $24 million each year.

Before any property tax increase moves forward, the school board should invite respected community leaders, business executives, financial professionals, and parents to conduct an independent review of the district budget. A collaborative process could identify efficiencies, reduce waste, and build public trust. Taxpayers deserve to know that every reasonable reform has been considered before they are asked to pay more.

Public education is vital to Leon County’s future, but accountability matters too. Voting against this proposed tax increase would be a vote for transparency, responsible planning, and fiscal discipline.

Recent TR Related School Board Reports

Fewer Students, Higher Taxes

LCS Leads State in Assistant Principal Positions

Double Digit Enrollment Drops Hit Five Florida School Districts

LCS Seeks Renewal of Half-Penny Sales Tax, $500M in Revenue

Leon County School Board Wrangle Over Budget Cuts

LCS Board Rejects Citizen Review in 3-2 Vote

LCS Adds 47 Administrators as Student Enrollment Declines

The analysis also addressed a meeting attended by two school members and the implications related to the Florida Sunshine law.

The memorandum, dated May 19 and authored by attorney Louise Wilhite-St Laurent, analyzed RFQ 113-2026, the solicitation for construction manager services related to the new construction, renovation, demolition and site work project at Raa Middle School.

According to the memo, the district issued the request for qualifications on Feb. 12 through its public procurement portal. Seven firms submitted responses that were deemed responsive and advanced to the scoring process.

The memo acknowledged that district staff initially calculated interview scores using only five committee members instead of six, but noted that the corrected calculation did not change the final vendor rankings.

The legal analysis states that vendors had multiple opportunities under Florida law to protest the solicitation, the short-list selection process and the final recommended award, but no protests were filed within the required 72-hour windows. The memo argues that the failure to file timely protests waived the vendors’ rights to later challenge the process.

The attorney ultimately concluded that the superintendent’s recommendation to award the contract to Rippee Construction is “legally sound” and can be approved by the School Board “without significant subsequent legal risk.”

The memorandum also addressed questions surrounding an April 29 information meeting attended by two School Board members and representatives from construction firms. The meeting raised concerns about whether the gathering violated Florida’s Sunshine Law or the district’s Cone of Silence policy governing procurement communications.

The two school members attending the meeting were Daryl Jones and Marcus Nicolas.

Wilhite-St Laurent concluded that no Sunshine Law violation occurred because no official action was taken or intended during the meeting. The memo further stated there was no substantive discussion of the RFQ itself and therefore no Cone of Silence violation.

The item is scheduled to be addressed at the May 26 Leon County School Board meeting.

The analysis compares 12-month average taxable sales growth from December 2022 through October 2025 — labeled as the “peak” period — with growth since October 2025, when the national economy began slowing. The “total” column combines both periods to show which local economies have remained resilient despite the downturn.

Statewide, taxable sales growth during the “peak” period was 7.8%. Since the peak, growth has declined 2.8%, for a net growth rate over the period of 5.0%.

Among Florida counties, Sumter County posted the strongest peak-period growth at 19.0%, followed closely by Clay County at 20.3%. Saint Johns County ranked third at 14.7%, while Manatee County recorded 12.9% growth and Pasco County posted 11.3%.

Several counties in Central and Northeast Florida dominated the peak growth rankings, reflecting strong population gains and consumer spending during the post-pandemic expansion.

At the opposite end, Monroe County experienced the weakest peak growth at negative 5.4%, followed by Okaloosa County at negative 3.2%, Seminole County at negative 2.6%, Lee County at negative 0.9%, and Escambia County at negative 0.6%.

Since the October 2025 slowdown, however, nearly every county has experienced declining taxable sales growth. The counties hit hardest by the downturn were Miami-Dade and Hillsborough counties, each showing a 6.9% decline since the peak. Pinellas County followed with a 6.5% drop, while Broward County posted a 6.1% decline and Duval County fell 5.8%.

Leon County also saw a notable decline of 5.7% since October 2025.

Tourism-heavy counties were particularly vulnerable during the slowdown. Monroe, Sarasota, Charlotte, and Seminole counties all posted declines exceeding 5% after the peak period.

Despite the economic slowdown, several counties still maintained positive overall taxable sales growth, indicating stronger consumer activity and comparatively resilient local economies.

Sumter County led the state with a total gain of 19.8%, followed by Clay County at 18.5% and Saint Johns County at 12.6%. Manatee County remained strong at 10.0%, while Nassau County posted 7.3% total growth.

Other counties that stayed in positive territory included Orange, Lake, Sarasota, Marion, Palm Beach, Brevard, Walton, Santa Rosa, and Leon counties, though some showed only modest gains after recent declines.

The statewide total remained positive at 5.0%, suggesting Florida’s economy overall continues to outperform many states despite weaker consumer spending trends.

Still, a growing number of counties have now slipped into negative territory on the combined measure. Broward County posted a total decline of 5.5%, Lee County fell 4.9%, and Seminole and Monroe counties each recorded a negative 7.9% total change — the weakest overall performance among the counties analyzed.

The data highlights a widening divide between counties that continue benefiting from population growth and in-migration and those more dependent on tourism, discretionary spending, or slower-growing local economies.

Matlow sought to take advantage of a recently revealed federal government audit of a grant program awarded to the city. In the process Matlow accused City Manager Reese Goad and his “brother-in-law” of “public corruption.”

Matlow wrote on a social media post, “Nepotism between Reese Goad as City Manager and Adam Jacobs, Budget Director for the COT housing department underscores the poor judgement of Reese Goad again. The city manager and his brother-in-law have cost the city another political, financial, and reputational black eye… This is a dark moment for our city.”

Matlow continued, “Both Mr. Goad and his brother-in-law have let down our city government.”

The attack backfired when it was revealed that Matlow’s claims were false. The Budget Director for the city referenced in Matlow’s post is not related to City Manager Goad.

Matlow used the false narrative to make dramatic claims, writing, “the embarrassment of public corruption amid allegations and findings by the United States Department of Housing and Urban Development against the City of Tallahassee is the very last straw we can take.”

The audit initiated by the federal government has not been completed and no findings have been released.

Matlow offered an apology for his mistake at the end of Wednesday’s city commission meeting but was criticized by Mayor Dailey for not understanding the impact of his irresponsible actions on an innocent city employee. Dailey demanded Matlow make a formal apology at the next city commission meeting and include that apology on social media where Matlow published his accusations.

Matlow left the city hall chambers while Dailey was responding to Matlow’s attack on Goad.

Statewide, Florida’s K-12 student population declined from 2.84 million students in 2018-19 to 2.79 million in 2024-25, a decrease of about 53,700 students, or 1.9%.

Among large districts, Pinellas County Schools recorded the steepest percentage decline, losing 16.8% of its enrollment over the six-year period. The district dropped from 100,985 students to 84,064 students, a loss of nearly 17,000 students.

The chart below shows the changes in student enrolment from 2018/19 to 2024/25 for districts with over 10,000 students in 2024/25.

Broward County Public Schools posted the largest numeric decline, shedding 29,244 students, or 10.8%. Leon County Schools ranked among the districts with the highest percentage losses, falling 10.6% from 33,543 students to 29,990 students.

Other districts with notable declines included School District of Indian River County at minus 10.6%, Escambia County School District at minus 10%, and Seminole County Public Schools at minus 7.8%.

On the growth side, Hendry County School District recorded the state’s largest percentage increase, nearly doubling enrollment from 7,322 students to 14,194 students, a 93.9% increase.

Several fast-growing districts were concentrated in Central and Northeast Florida. St. Johns County School District grew 21.7%, while Walton County School District increased 20.2% and St. Lucie Public Schools expanded 18.4%.

Other districts posting sizable gains included Pasco County Schools at 9.6%, Lee County School District at 7.4%, and School District of Osceola County at 6.7%.

School Closures

Several of the Florida school districts that experienced the largest enrollment declines since 2018-19 are now actively closing or consolidating schools because of falling student numbers and related budget pressures.

Pinellas County Schools, which posted the state’s largest percentage decline among major districts at 16.8%, has already approved multiple school closures and consolidations. In February 2026, the school board voted to close Cross Bayou Elementary and Disston Academy while also merging and restructuring other campuses to address long-term enrollment losses and rising operating costs.

District officials said the changes were part of a broader “Planning for Progress” initiative prompted by years of declining enrollment. Earlier in the process, administrators warned that additional closures could follow.

Broward County Public Schools, which lost more than 29,000 students between 2018-19 and 2024-25, is also pursuing a large-scale downsizing effort. The district has considered closing, consolidating, or repurposing dozens of campuses under its “Redefining Our Schools” initiative.

Reports indicate Broward officials proposed shutting down at least seven schools amid a projected budget shortfall tied to declining enrollment.

Statewide, enrollment losses have been linked to lower birth rates, expanded school choice programs, charter school growth, homeschooling, and private-school voucher programs. Former Florida Education Commissioner Manny Diaz Jr. said in 2024 that some school closures are an expected consequence of increased school choice competition.

While Leon County Schools ranked among the districts with the sharpest enrollment declines, current web reports did not show the district formally moving to close schools at this time. Other districts with notable losses, including Escambia County School District and Seminole County Public Schools, also have faced ongoing discussions about capacity and enrollment management, though large-scale closures have not received the same statewide attention as Pinellas and Broward.

According to materials presented to board members, the Tennessee-based company specializes in student recruitment, retention and chronic absenteeism campaigns for public school districts across the country. Caissa says it currently works with more than 100 districts in over two dozen states and uses political-style campaign strategies to identify and recruit students.

The proposal comes as Leon County Schools faces financial pressure linked to declining enrollment. Public school districts receive state funding based largely on student attendance, meaning each student who leaves for a charter school, private school, home-schooling or another district reduces district revenue. Community discussions in Tallahassee have increasingly focused on enrollment losses and potential budget cuts or school consolidations.

The company’s materials describe a “performance-based” model in which districts pay only for students who successfully enroll and attend school. Caissa says it tracks students individually to verify results and uses outreach tactics including canvassing, direct mail, phone calls, digital advertising, community events and grassroots organizing.

Caissa officials argue public school districts now operate in a competitive environment and must actively market their programs to families. The company says its campaigns are designed to improve enrollment trends, increase state funding tied to student counts and strengthen public awareness of district offerings.

One of the biggest questions surrounding Caissa’s proposal is the company’s fee structure. While Leon County Schools has not publicly released a proposed payment amount, contracts in other districts provide insight into the company’s pricing model.

In Orange County Public Schools, district officials approved a contract paying Caissa $935 for every student successfully recruited or recovered who remained enrolled for at least 30 instructional days. District officials there said the company helped re-enroll 1,932 students during the first year of the agreement, generating approximately $1.8 million in payments to Caissa. However, Orange County officials argued each returning student also generated nearly $8,950 in state funding, leaving the district with a net financial gain.

A similar contract approved this year by Hartford Public Schools also pays Caissa $935 per recruited student, with the agreement capped at $500,000.

Caissa describes its services as “performance-based,” meaning districts pay only for verified enrollment results rather than traditional advertising fees. The company’s campaigns include direct mail, phone calls, digital advertising, canvassing, community events and grassroots outreach.

Leon County Schools officials have not yet announced whether the board will move forward with a contract.

District officials recently reviewed a proposal from TPG Cultural Exchange, a U.S. Department of State-designated J-1 visa sponsor that places certified international teachers in K-12 schools across the country. According to the company’s presentation to the district, TPG has more than 15 years of experience and reports a 93% year-over-year teacher retention rate in partner districts.

Publicly identified countries connected to TPG teachers include India, Jamaica, Philippines, Ghana, Uganda, Spain, and France.

The initiative is aimed at helping the district fill hard-to-staff positions, including exceptional student education, STEM fields, English language learning, and elementary education. TPG states that participating teachers must hold the equivalent of a U.S. bachelor’s degree in education, have at least two years of teaching experience, demonstrate English fluency, and obtain Florida certification before entering classrooms.

Under the proposed arrangement, Leon County Schools would interview and select candidates while TPG would manage visa sponsorship, relocation assistance, compliance requirements, and ongoing support services. The company says the J-1 visas are initially valid for three years and may be extended to five years with federal approval.

District leaders indicated the recruitment effort would not replace local hiring initiatives, but instead supplement ongoing efforts to address staffing shortages that have affected schools nationwide. Supporters say international teachers can provide students with broader cultural perspectives and global learning opportunities in addition to filling vacancies.

TPG’s materials highlighted partnerships with school districts in Florida and other states, including Duval County Public Schools and Polk County Public Schools.

In the 2024 election cycle, Inman-Johnson took on Commissioner Curtis Richardson. Richardson won reelection, capturing 50.71% of the general election vote with Inman-Johnson receiving 49.29% of vote.

Like Kalicki, Inman-Johnson is part of the Tallahassee progressive movement led by City Commissioner Jeremy Matlow.

“I’m not willing to let Dianne Williams-Cox be re-elected without a meaningful challenge. City Hall is in disarray; it’s clear we are going to need stability and ethical leadership in Seat 5 to guide our City through this interim period,” said Inman-Johnson. “I’m willing to serve one term and make sure the transition is successful.”

In addition to Dianne Williams-Cox, the seat 5 race also includes candidates Tifany Hill and Bernard Stevens.

The news release from the campaign is below;

TALLAHASSEE, FL— Dot is back.

Dot Inman-Johnson filed to run for Tallahassee City Commission Seat 5 to challenge Commissioner Dianne Williams-Cox.

“I’m not willing to let Dianne Williams-Cox be re-elected without a meaningful challenge. City Hall is in disarray; it’s clear we are going to need stability and ethical leadership in Seat 5 to guide our City through this interim period,” said Inman-Johnson. “I’m willing to serve one term and make sure the transition is successful.”

Inman-Johnson cites the hostile state government takeover of Tallahassee Memorial Hospital, reckless selloff of Capital City County Club, questionable administration of the Fire Services Fee and chronic City Hall self-dealing, with political insiders benefitting themselves by sitting on local government boards in her decision to run.

The announcement comes as embattled City Manager Reese Goad abruptly resigns leaving a void in responsible leadership to appoint his successor.

Dot Inman-Johnson served honorably as Mayor and City Commissioner, building consensus from neighborhoods and business interests alike. A historic figure in Tallahassee politics, Inman-Johnson was the first Black woman to serve as Mayor and gave the Key to the City to Civil Rights icon Rosa Parks.

A proven vote getter, she received 40,856 votes against incumbent Curtis Richardson last November and 15,791 votes in a first-place August primary result, for a total 56,647 ballots cast for Inman-Johnson in the most recent City elections.

“I have advocated and navigated high stakes community issues that divided our community like the coal plant, and helped guide the creation of Kleman Plaza downtown development that now bears my name at Dot Inman-Johnson Park.”

Since 2024 Dot has remained in the spotlight leading the fight against what she cites as an illegal tax in the way the Fire Service Fee is administered.

“We need to move forward with engaged neighborhoods, a responsible business community, leaders unwilling to blur ethical lines, and most of all the restored trust of everyday Tallahassee residents,” she added.

“I have the expertise to bring stable, ethical leadership during this transition to get our house back in order,” concluded Inman-Johnson.

Dot’s official campaign operations will launch the week of May 18, when she will be available for media interviews.

Couriel, 48, will succeed Justice Carlos Muñiz as chief justice, who has served in the role for two consecutive terms.

“I am grateful to my colleagues for their trust,” Couriel said in a released statement. He added that he is “indebted to the previous chief justices with whom I’ve served. I will do my best to serve the people of Florida as they so ably have.”

The chief justice is the administrative leader of not just the Florida Supreme Court but the entire state court system, helping to set the management and operational policies as well as the legislative and budget agendas for the judicial branch.

Before being appointed to the court in 2020 by Gov. Ron DeSantis, Couriel had never served as a judge. He grew up in Miami and earned his bachelor’s and law degrees from Harvard University.

Couriel worked as a federal prosecutor for the Southern District of Florida and also practiced at a firm in New York and at Kobre & Kim LLP, a global firm with offices in Miami.