June Permits

For the month of June, the number of single-family residential construction permits were down 7.0% when compared to June 2025. There were 53 permits issued in June 2026, compared to 57 permits issued one year ago. There were 66 permits issued last month, May 2026.

The 3-Mnth Avg. data (Apr. – Jun.), which smooths out the month-to-month volatility, shows a 19.5% increase in the number of permits issued over the same 3-month period one year ago.

June Permit Value

The June permit value was down 9.3%, from $16.2 mill in June 2025 to $14.7 million in 2026.

The 3-Mnth Avg. data show a 3.5% decrease in monthly average permit value during this period. The 3-month average permit values decreased from $14.3 million in June 2025 to $13.8 million in June 2026.

Long Term Trend

The chart below shows the number of permits issued each month for the last 37-month period. A 3-month average line is also included. The highlighted numbers relate to permits issued in the month of June back to 2023.

The chart shows that the 3-month average declining trend that began in June 2025 has been reversed. The year-to-date (YTD) numbers through June show 2026 permits (312) are ahead of the number of permits issued during the first six months of 2025 (301) and 2024 (298).

TR has previously published an analysis which showed that Leon County’s job growth during this period ranked 37th and the annual wages ranked 13th.

According to data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW), Leon County’s number of business establishments increased from 9,155 in 2019 to 10,868 in 2025. That represents a gain of 1,713 establishments, or 18.7%, ranking sixth among 11 peer counties.

For comparison purposes, the peer group includes counties that produced between 100,000 and 200,000 jobs in 2019.

Only Pasco County (30.5%), Manatee County (24.8%), Sarasota County (24.1%), Lake County (22.9%) and Collier County (20.4%) recorded faster growth during the six-year period.

Leon County’s growth also exceeded the statewide average. Across Florida, business establishments increased from 679,463 to 800,831, a gain of 121,368 establishments, or 17.9%. Leon County’s 18.7% increase was nearly one percentage point higher than the state’s overall growth rate.

Among the counties trailing Leon were Marion (16.6%), Seminole (13.5%), Escambia (13.4%), Volusia (8.6%) and Alachua (7.3%).

The figures come from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW), widely regarded as the nation’s most comprehensive source of local employment and business data. Unlike surveys that rely on statistical sampling, QCEW is based on unemployment insurance records submitted by employers and covers approximately 95% of U.S. wage and salary jobs, making it one of the most accurate measures of local economic activity.

In QCEW data, an establishment is a single physical business location where economic activity occurs, such as a retail store, restaurant, manufacturing plant, office, medical clinic or warehouse. A single company may operate multiple establishments—for example, a retailer with 10 stores would be counted as 10 establishments. As a result, establishment growth measures the expansion in the number of business locations rather than the number of companies.

Economists often view growth in business establishments as a key indicator of economic vitality because it reflects business formation, expansion and investment within a community. When combined with employment and wage growth, establishment growth provides a broader picture of the strength and diversity of a local economy.

The analysis below provides a comparison between Leon County and a peer group that includes 11 other counties. For comparison purposes, the peer group includes counties that produced between 100,000 and 200,000 jobs in 2019.

Leon County Added 12,000 jobs Since 2019

Leon County added more than 12,000 jobs over the past six years, ending 2025 with an average of 165,332 jobs. The pace of employment growth (7.67%) ranked 7th in the peer group of ten counties. See table below.

Among the 11 peer counties included in the comparison, Alachua County (4.99%), Escambia County (5.97%) and Seminole County (6.64%) recorded lower growth rates than Leon County.

The strongest performers were Pasco County, which added 28,535 jobs for a 23.44% increase, followed by Marion County at 15.15%, Collier County at 13.79%, Sarasota County at 12.92% and Manatee County at 11.93%. Lake County also posted double-digit growth at 17,314 jobs, or 17.09%.

Statewide, Florida employers added more than 1.03 million jobs during the period, an increase of 11.68%.

The gap narrows somewhat when looking only at the post-pandemic period from 2022 to 2025. During those three years, Leon County added 9,452 jobs, representing 6.06% employment growth.

That growth matched the statewide average of 6.03% but still ranked below six of the peer counties. Pasco again led the group with 11.22% growth, followed by Manatee (9.20%), Lake (8.56%), Collier (7.83%), Sarasota (7.71%) and Marion (7.45%). Leon outperformed Volusia (4.69%), Alachua (3.85%), Escambia (3.26%) and Seminole (3.00%).

The data suggest Leon County has experienced steady job gains but has not kept pace with many of Florida’s fastest-growing counties over the longer six-year period. However, its performance since 2022 indicates the county’s labor market has largely kept pace with statewide employment growth as Florida’s economy has continued to expand following the pandemic.

Leon County wage growth ranks among Florida’s strongest

While Leon County has trailed some of its Florida peer counties in overall job growth since 2019, workers have experienced one of the stronger increases in wages over the same period. The QCEW data shows that Leon County economy ranks 13th among the 67 Florida counties in annual wages in 2025. From 2019-25, Leon County wages grew 39.6%, which ranks 22 among the 67 counties. The table below lists the top 20 Florida counties ranked by 2025 annual wage.

Among the 10 peer counties in the comparison, Leon ranked fifth in wage growth. See table below, which display the counties ranked by the 2025 annual wage.

Florida’s average annual wage climbed from $51,744 in 2019 to $72,732 in 2025, an increase of 40.6%. Leon County’s 39.6% increase was just one percentage point below the statewide average.

Only four peer counties recorded stronger wage growth than Leon. Manatee County led the group with a 43.3% increase, followed by Pasco County at 42.1%, Sarasota County at 41.6% and Collier County at 40.1%.

Leon County outperformed Lake County (38.5%), Marion County (38.0%), Escambia County (37.0%), Volusia County (36.2%), Seminole County (35.6%) and Alachua County (34.5%).

Leon ranked in the middle of the peer group for wage growth with average annual wage of $64,947 ranked behind Collier County ($70,215), Seminole County ($68,003), Sarasota County ($67,589), Alachua County ($66,042) and the statewide average of $72,732.

The comparison suggests Leon County’s labor market has produced steady wage gains even as employment growth has lagged many of Florida’s faster-growing counties. Workers saw average annual pay increase by more than $18,400 over the six-year period, reflecting continued upward pressure on wages despite more modest job creation than many of the state’s high-growth markets.

The airline’s first flights on the new routes started on July 2, adding direct connections between Tallahassee and the two destinations for the first time. Service will operate three days a week — Tuesdays, Thursdays and Sundays.

Breeze Airlines Communication Specialist Ryne Williams told the Tallahassee Democrat that the company was “really pleased with the performance of both routes and are excited to see how they continue to grow following the launch of service.”

“We are excited to begin service from Tallahassee to Fort Lauderdale and Raleigh-Durham on July 2,” said Williams,

Breeze is offering introductory fares starting at $39 one way for qualifying reservations, giving travelers another low-cost option for summer travel.

The launch of Breeze service marks the latest effort to expand air travel options at Tallahassee International Airport. City of Tallahassee Aviation Director David Pollard said the new routes support the city’s goal of increasing passenger traffic, economic impact and cargo activity.

“We are thrilled to welcome Breeze Airways to Tallahassee,” Pollard said, calling the addition an important step as the city continues investing in air service improvements.

The Tallahassee City Commission approved a program that good provide up to $3 million in incentives for the new routes at Tallahassee’s airport, according to TLH Airport Director David Pollard.

“We’re very pleased with the support of our leadership and the City Commission as we work to take that next step with respect to the implementation of the air service incentive and capacity improvements program,” Pollard said.

Breeze Airways founder and CEO David Neeleman said the airline is focused on providing affordable, nonstop service from communities that have had limited direct-flight options.

Founded in 2021, Breeze operates more than 300 year-round and seasonal routes to 86 cities across the United States, Mexico and the Caribbean. The airline flies Airbus A220-300 aircraft and promotes amenities including onboard WiFi, family seating options and flexible booking policies.

With the new flights beginning, Tallahassee residents will have expanded access to two additional nonstop destinations as the airport continues efforts to grow commercial air service.

Relative to 2025, the Passenger Traffic Report shows year-over-year passenger counts in May were down 11.8% for American Airlines and up 7.1% for the Delta Group. Impacting the numbers was the fact that Silver Airways ended service in June 2025.

The graph below shows the annualized number of passengers for the last 37-months. The highlighted numbers on the graph indicate the annual traffic during the month of May over the last four years. The annual rate of passengers at TIA in May 2026 – 869,626 – is down 9.13% when compared to one year ago (956,949). The annualized number of passengers is calculated by summing the previous 12 months of traffic.

May 2026 is the 14 consecutive month that annual passenger traffic has declined.

Foster concludes that, based on this data, “Almost 5,000 jobs have vanished in 18 months.”

Foster’s conclusion is wrong and here’s why.

The jobs data Foster is referring to comes from the Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS) and measures employment by place of residence, not total jobs created in a specific county.

For measuring jobs created in Leon County, the federal government publishes the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW).

Comparing the two sources of job information shows why Foster’s conclusion related to vanishing jobs is wrong.

In the table below, the QCEW data shows the “Jobs in Leon County” increased 9.8% from 2021 to 2025. The Leon County economy added 14,725 jobs during this period.

However, the data that measures “Leon Residents with Jobs in Leon County” only increased by 10,050 or 6.8% during this period. And as Foster points out, this number decreased in 2025.

The big story in this data is not the vanishing jobs but the vanishing people that still hold the jobs created in Leon County.

Since 2021 over 4,500 people with jobs in Leon County chose to move outside Leon County. And even more relevant is that most of this movement occurred recently, in 2024 and 2025.

Where did the people go? For the answer to that question, let’s turn to population growth.

The table below shows the latest census population numbers available for Leon, Jefferson and Wakulla counties from 2020 to 2025.

Foster argues that census data shows Leon County loss 1,400 residents in 2024. However, the most recent revisions do not support this decline.

The most recent data shows 2.3% population growth in Leon County over 2020-25, much less than the 8.9% for Florida over the same period and even less than the population growth in Wakulla (12.8%) and Jefferson (10.3%) counties.

Now it is becoming clear where the people with jobs in Leon County went – to Wakulla and Jefferson counties. And when they left, they kept their Leon County jobs.

Implications

The above analysis shifts the focus about the local economy from the Leon County job market to a question about why people are choosing to work in Leon County but live elsewhere.

The list of possible answers to this question is long and, in my opinion, includes housing affordability, local taxes, public school quality, crime and, yes, politics. This discussion will be left for another day.

However, regardless of the answer, If this trend continues, the Leon County economy will continue to create more jobs and eventually begin losing out on the benefits of the job growth.

For a great example of what this might look like, look no further than the Leon County School Board: declining enrollment, unused infrastructure, under paid teachers, and increasing property taxes!

According to the May 2026 sales data tabulated by the Florida Realtors® , the median single-family home sales price increased from $340,00 in Mayl 2025 to $355,000 in May 2026, a gain of $15,000 or 4.4%. The increase suggests that home values in the Tallahassee area continue to appreciate, although at a moderate pace that is more consistent with a stabilizing market than the rapid price growth experienced during the pandemic-era housing boom.

Sales activity also improved during the month. Total transactions increased from 330 homes sold in May 2025 to 357 in May 2026, an increase of 27 sales or 8.2%. The rise in transactions indicates that buyer demand remained strong enough to support increased market activity despite higher mortgage rates and elevated home prices.

Year-to-date figures present a somewhat different picture. While overall sales volume is stronger, median prices have softened slightly. Through the first five months of 2026, the median sales price stood at $339,300, compared with $331,000 during the same period in 2025, a decline of $8,300 or 2.5%. The decrease suggests that while May was a strong pricing month, lower-priced sales earlier in the year may have pulled down the cumulative median.

Meanwhile, year-to-date transactions rose significantly from 1,373 sales in 2025 to 1,466 sales in 2026, an increase of 93 homes or 6.8%. This stronger growth in sales volume indicates a healthier level of market participation and suggests that buyers remain active in the Tallahassee market despite economic uncertainties.

Overall, May’s data show a housing market characterized by modest price appreciation and increasing sales activity, while year-to-date figures point to stronger demand but slightly lower average pricing than a year ago.

There were 66 permits issued in May 2026, compared to 46 permits issued one year ago. There were 70 permits issued last month, April 2026.

The 3-Mnth Avg. data (Mar. – May.), which smooths out the month-to-month volatility, shows a 32.0% increase in the number of permits issued over the same 3-month period one year ago.

The 3-Mnth Avg. data show a 6.1% increase in monthly average permit value during this period. The 3-month average permit values increased from $13.1 million in May 2025 to $13.9 million in May 2026.

The chart below shows the number of permits issued each month for the last 37-month period. A 3-month average line is also included. The highlighted numbers relate to permits issued in the month of April back to 2023.

The chart shows that the 3-month average declining trend that began in June 2025 has been reversed. The year-to-date (YTD) numbers through May show 2026 permits (259) is behind the number of permits issued during the first six months of 2025 (301).

Relative to 2025, the Passenger Traffic Report shows year-over-year passenger counts in April were down 3.3% for American Airlines and up 2.5% for the Delta Group. Impacting the numbers was the fact that Silver Airways ended service in June 2025.

The graph below shows the annualized number of passengers for the last 37-months. The highlighted numbers on the graph indicate the annual traffic during the month of April over the last four years. The annual rate of passengers at TIA in April 2026 – 876,929 – is down 8.92% when compared to one year ago (962,861). The annualized number of passengers is calculated by summing the previous 12 months of traffic.

Dr. Nute joins TOC following a distinguished career in the United States military, where he gained extensive experience in diagnosis and treatment of hand, wrist, and upper extremity conditions, including fractures, arthritis, tendon and nerve injuries, sports-related injuries, and minimally invasive surgical procedures. His patient-centered approach and advanced surgical expertise will help provide patients with expanded access to specialized upper-extremity care.

“I’m excited to join the talented team at TOC and begin serving patients throughout the region,” said Dr. Drew Nute. “My goal is to help patients return to the activities they enjoy as quickly and safely as possible by providing the latest treatment options and surgical techniques. I look forward to building relationships within the community and contributing to TOC’s strong reputation for orthopedic excellence.”

The press release noted that the “addition of Dr. Nute strengthens TOC’s growing network of orthopedic specialists and reinforces the organization’s commitment to delivering high-quality, comprehensive musculoskeletal care close to home.”

“We are excited to add another highly dedicated hand and wrist specialist to our growing team as we continue investing in advanced orthopedic services for our communities,” said Kelby Tardi, Chief Executive Officer of TOC. “Dr. Nute’s experience, clinical excellence, and patient-focused philosophy align perfectly with TOC’s mission and vision for compassionate care.”

TOC continues to expand its physician network and services to meet the evolving healthcare needs of patients across the region. With more than 10 locations and a multidisciplinary team of orthopedic specialists, TOC remains dedicated to providing innovative treatment options and exceptional patient care.

Dr. Nute is now accepting new patient appointments in Tallahassee and Panama City Beach, with patient visits beginning June 12, 2026. For more information or to schedule an appointment, visit TeamTOC.com.

The UCF-HCA Florida Healthcare GME Consortium is the fastest growing residency and fellowship training program in Florida, designed to address the state’s physician shortage. By June, it will be training more than 820 physicians in 49 accredited programs across Florida that have graduated almost 1,300 physicians. About 50 percent of those graduates stay in Florida to practice.

HCA Florida Capital Hospital has had a dermatology residency program since 2022. Specialties such as dermatology, anesthesiology and physical medicine and rehabilitation require residents to do a transitional year of training that emphasizes inpatient medicine, ambulatory care, emergency medicine, critical care, surgery and elective specialty experiences tailored to each resident’s future field of practice.

The program is expected to welcome its first class of 15 residents in July 2026 and interviews are complete for the incoming cohort. This new residency expands graduate medical education opportunities in North Florida and strengthens the UCF/HCA Florida Healthcare’s commitment to developing highly skilled, adaptable physicians prepared to enter specialized residency pathways.

“The launch of the Transitional Year Residency Program at HCA Florida Capital Hospital represents an exciting step forward in the continued growth of graduate medical education at our institution,” said Sarah Vocelle, DO, program director. “We are building a program that prepares physicians to lead, innovate and deliver exceptional care across a wide-range of specialties.”

Job growth was essentially flat in April when compared to March, as the number of unemployed increased from 7,790 to 8,095 in April.

There were 158,830 people working in Leon County in April compared to March’s revised employment number of 158,733. The size of the workforce in April was 166,925 up from the 166,523 reported in March.

Year Over Year Comparisons

The Leon County Jobs Report, provided below, shows the number of people working in April 2026 was 2,378 less than in April 2025. The April labor force – those looking for jobs – came in at 166,925 which was 154 more than reported one year ago.

The April unemployment rate of 4.8% is up from the 3.3% reported one year ago. At the state level, the April unemployment rate of 4.6% (not seasonally adjusted) was up from the 3.4% reported one year ago.

The chart below shows the monthly level of jobs in Leon County over the last 37 months with a 12-month average trend line. The highlighted numbers relate to employment levels for the month of April back to 2023.