Foster concludes that, based on this data, “Almost 5,000 jobs have vanished in 18 months.”

Foster’s conclusion is wrong and here’s why.

The jobs data Foster is referring to comes from the Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS) and measures employment by place of residence, not total jobs created in a specific county.

For measuring jobs created in Leon County, the federal government publishes the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW).

Comparing the two sources of job information shows why Foster’s conclusion related to vanishing jobs is wrong.

In the table below, the QCEW data shows the “Jobs in Leon County” increased 9.8% from 2021 to 2025. The Leon County economy added 14,725 jobs during this period.

However, the data that measures “Leon Residents with Jobs in Leon County” only increased by 10,050 or 6.8% during this period. And as Foster points out, this number decreased in 2025.

The big story in this data is not the vanishing jobs but the vanishing people that still hold the jobs created in Leon County.

Since 2021 over 4,500 people with jobs in Leon County chose to move outside Leon County. And even more relevant is that most of this movement occurred recently, in 2024 and 2025.

Where did the people go? For the answer to that question, let’s turn to population growth.

The table below shows the latest census population numbers available for Leon, Jefferson and Wakulla counties from 2020 to 2025.

Foster argues that census data shows Leon County loss 1,400 residents in 2024. However, the most recent revisions do not support this decline.

The most recent data shows 2.3% population growth in Leon County over 2020-25, much less than the 8.9% for Florida over the same period and even less than the population growth in Wakulla (12.8%) and Jefferson (10.3%) counties.

Now it is becoming clear where the people with jobs in Leon County went – to Wakulla and Jefferson counties. And when they left, they kept their Leon County jobs.

Implications

The above analysis shifts the focus about the local economy from the Leon County job market to a question about why people are choosing to work in Leon County but live elsewhere.

The list of possible answers to this question is long and, in my opinion, includes housing affordability, local taxes, public school quality, crime and, yes, politics. This discussion will be left for another day.

However, regardless of the answer, If this trend continues, the Leon County economy will continue to create more jobs and eventually begin losing out on the benefits of the job growth.

For a great example of what this might look like, look no further than the Leon County School Board: declining enrollment, unused infrastructure, under paid teachers, and increasing property taxes!

According to the May 2026 sales data tabulated by the Florida Realtors® , the median single-family home sales price increased from $340,00 in Mayl 2025 to $355,000 in May 2026, a gain of $15,000 or 4.4%. The increase suggests that home values in the Tallahassee area continue to appreciate, although at a moderate pace that is more consistent with a stabilizing market than the rapid price growth experienced during the pandemic-era housing boom.

Sales activity also improved during the month. Total transactions increased from 330 homes sold in May 2025 to 357 in May 2026, an increase of 27 sales or 8.2%. The rise in transactions indicates that buyer demand remained strong enough to support increased market activity despite higher mortgage rates and elevated home prices.

Year-to-date figures present a somewhat different picture. While overall sales volume is stronger, median prices have softened slightly. Through the first five months of 2026, the median sales price stood at $339,300, compared with $331,000 during the same period in 2025, a decline of $8,300 or 2.5%. The decrease suggests that while May was a strong pricing month, lower-priced sales earlier in the year may have pulled down the cumulative median.

Meanwhile, year-to-date transactions rose significantly from 1,373 sales in 2025 to 1,466 sales in 2026, an increase of 93 homes or 6.8%. This stronger growth in sales volume indicates a healthier level of market participation and suggests that buyers remain active in the Tallahassee market despite economic uncertainties.

Overall, May’s data show a housing market characterized by modest price appreciation and increasing sales activity, while year-to-date figures point to stronger demand but slightly lower average pricing than a year ago.

There were 66 permits issued in May 2026, compared to 46 permits issued one year ago. There were 70 permits issued last month, April 2026.

The 3-Mnth Avg. data (Mar. – May.), which smooths out the month-to-month volatility, shows a 32.0% increase in the number of permits issued over the same 3-month period one year ago.

The 3-Mnth Avg. data show a 6.1% increase in monthly average permit value during this period. The 3-month average permit values increased from $13.1 million in May 2025 to $13.9 million in May 2026.

The chart below shows the number of permits issued each month for the last 37-month period. A 3-month average line is also included. The highlighted numbers relate to permits issued in the month of April back to 2023.

The chart shows that the 3-month average declining trend that began in June 2025 has been reversed. The year-to-date (YTD) numbers through May show 2026 permits (259) is behind the number of permits issued during the first six months of 2025 (301).

Relative to 2025, the Passenger Traffic Report shows year-over-year passenger counts in April were down 3.3% for American Airlines and up 2.5% for the Delta Group. Impacting the numbers was the fact that Silver Airways ended service in June 2025.

The graph below shows the annualized number of passengers for the last 37-months. The highlighted numbers on the graph indicate the annual traffic during the month of April over the last four years. The annual rate of passengers at TIA in April 2026 – 876,929 – is down 8.92% when compared to one year ago (962,861). The annualized number of passengers is calculated by summing the previous 12 months of traffic.

Dr. Nute joins TOC following a distinguished career in the United States military, where he gained extensive experience in diagnosis and treatment of hand, wrist, and upper extremity conditions, including fractures, arthritis, tendon and nerve injuries, sports-related injuries, and minimally invasive surgical procedures. His patient-centered approach and advanced surgical expertise will help provide patients with expanded access to specialized upper-extremity care.

“I’m excited to join the talented team at TOC and begin serving patients throughout the region,” said Dr. Drew Nute. “My goal is to help patients return to the activities they enjoy as quickly and safely as possible by providing the latest treatment options and surgical techniques. I look forward to building relationships within the community and contributing to TOC’s strong reputation for orthopedic excellence.”

The press release noted that the “addition of Dr. Nute strengthens TOC’s growing network of orthopedic specialists and reinforces the organization’s commitment to delivering high-quality, comprehensive musculoskeletal care close to home.”

“We are excited to add another highly dedicated hand and wrist specialist to our growing team as we continue investing in advanced orthopedic services for our communities,” said Kelby Tardi, Chief Executive Officer of TOC. “Dr. Nute’s experience, clinical excellence, and patient-focused philosophy align perfectly with TOC’s mission and vision for compassionate care.”

TOC continues to expand its physician network and services to meet the evolving healthcare needs of patients across the region. With more than 10 locations and a multidisciplinary team of orthopedic specialists, TOC remains dedicated to providing innovative treatment options and exceptional patient care.

Dr. Nute is now accepting new patient appointments in Tallahassee and Panama City Beach, with patient visits beginning June 12, 2026. For more information or to schedule an appointment, visit TeamTOC.com.

The UCF-HCA Florida Healthcare GME Consortium is the fastest growing residency and fellowship training program in Florida, designed to address the state’s physician shortage. By June, it will be training more than 820 physicians in 49 accredited programs across Florida that have graduated almost 1,300 physicians. About 50 percent of those graduates stay in Florida to practice.

HCA Florida Capital Hospital has had a dermatology residency program since 2022. Specialties such as dermatology, anesthesiology and physical medicine and rehabilitation require residents to do a transitional year of training that emphasizes inpatient medicine, ambulatory care, emergency medicine, critical care, surgery and elective specialty experiences tailored to each resident’s future field of practice.

The program is expected to welcome its first class of 15 residents in July 2026 and interviews are complete for the incoming cohort. This new residency expands graduate medical education opportunities in North Florida and strengthens the UCF/HCA Florida Healthcare’s commitment to developing highly skilled, adaptable physicians prepared to enter specialized residency pathways.

“The launch of the Transitional Year Residency Program at HCA Florida Capital Hospital represents an exciting step forward in the continued growth of graduate medical education at our institution,” said Sarah Vocelle, DO, program director. “We are building a program that prepares physicians to lead, innovate and deliver exceptional care across a wide-range of specialties.”

Job growth was essentially flat in April when compared to March, as the number of unemployed increased from 7,790 to 8,095 in April.

There were 158,830 people working in Leon County in April compared to March’s revised employment number of 158,733. The size of the workforce in April was 166,925 up from the 166,523 reported in March.

Year Over Year Comparisons

The Leon County Jobs Report, provided below, shows the number of people working in April 2026 was 2,378 less than in April 2025. The April labor force – those looking for jobs – came in at 166,925 which was 154 more than reported one year ago.

The April unemployment rate of 4.8% is up from the 3.3% reported one year ago. At the state level, the April unemployment rate of 4.6% (not seasonally adjusted) was up from the 3.4% reported one year ago.

The chart below shows the monthly level of jobs in Leon County over the last 37 months with a 12-month average trend line. The highlighted numbers relate to employment levels for the month of April back to 2023.

The innovative program was developed in response to the nationwide pilot shortage and is designed to help students move from zero flight experience to commercial pilot readiness in as little as 12 to 16 months.

The PAC program combines comprehensive ground school instruction with hands-on flight training, preparing students for FAA pilot certifications and entry into the aviation workforce. Through a cohort-based model, students progress together through training in a focused, collaborative learning environment while gaining the knowledge, flight hours, and practical experience needed to pursue careers in aviation.

Students will split their training between classroom instruction at TSC and flight instruction at Sterling Flight Training, located at the Bobby Bowden Tallahassee International Airport. The program includes classroom learning, simulator training, one-on-one flight instruction, and aircraft-based flight time, allowing students to earn 250 to 300 flight hours.

Unlike many traditional collegiate aviation programs, the PAC program is intentionally non-degreed, focusing directly on the FAA certifications required for employment as a professional pilot.

“Professional pilots get paid for their FAA licenses, not their degrees, so we chose to cut out the aviation-related degree that many other colleges offer and that their graduates rarely monetize,” said Dr. Chris Johnson, program architect and former professor at Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University.

The program is designed to make aviation careers more accessible to a broad range of students, including traditional college students, career changers, and Veterans seeking a streamlined pathway into the aviation industry.

“Aviation is one of the fastest-growing workforce sectors in the country, and this partnership allows TSC to respond quickly to industry demand while creating life-changing career opportunities for our students,” said Shelly Bell, Vice President for Workforce Development at Tallahassee State College. “The PAC program provides an accelerated, affordable pathway into high-paying aviation careers right here in our region.”

The Professional Aeronautics Certification program is scheduled to launch in Fall 2026. Space is limited, and prospective students are encouraged to apply early. For more information about the Professional Aeronautics Certification program or to apply online, visit SterlingFlight.com. 

There will be a free, community event to celebrate the program’s launch on Wednesday, May 20, at Sterling Flight School. The event will have aircraft displays, program information sessions, networking with aviation professionals, a raffle for a free discovery flight, and pizza. 

There were 70 permits issued in April 2026, compared to 55 permits issued one year ago. There were 58 permits issued last month, March 2026.

The 3-Mnth Avg. data (Feb. – Apr.), which smooths out the month-to-month volatility, shows a 18.8% increase in the number of permits issued over the same 3-month period one year ago.

The 3-Mnth Avg. data show a 0.8% increase in monthly average permit value during this period. The 3-month average permit values increased from $12.1 million in April 2025 to $12.2 million in April 2026.

The chart below shows the number of permits issued each month for the last 37-month period. A 3-month average line is also included. The highlighted numbers relate to permits issued in the month of April back to 2023.

The chart shows that the 3-month average declining trend that began in June 2025 has been reversed. The year-to-date (YTD) numbers through April show 2026 permits (193) is just behind the number of permits issued during the start of 2025 (198).

The analysis compares 12-month average taxable sales growth from December 2022 through October 2025 — labeled as the “peak” period — with growth since October 2025, when the national economy began slowing. The “total” column combines both periods to show which local economies have remained resilient despite the downturn.

Statewide, taxable sales growth during the “peak” period was 7.8%. Since the peak, growth has declined 2.8%, for a net growth rate over the period of 5.0%.

Among Florida counties, Sumter County posted the strongest peak-period growth at 19.0%, followed closely by Clay County at 20.3%. Saint Johns County ranked third at 14.7%, while Manatee County recorded 12.9% growth and Pasco County posted 11.3%.

Several counties in Central and Northeast Florida dominated the peak growth rankings, reflecting strong population gains and consumer spending during the post-pandemic expansion.

At the opposite end, Monroe County experienced the weakest peak growth at negative 5.4%, followed by Okaloosa County at negative 3.2%, Seminole County at negative 2.6%, Lee County at negative 0.9%, and Escambia County at negative 0.6%.

Since the October 2025 slowdown, however, nearly every county has experienced declining taxable sales growth. The counties hit hardest by the downturn were Miami-Dade and Hillsborough counties, each showing a 6.9% decline since the peak. Pinellas County followed with a 6.5% drop, while Broward County posted a 6.1% decline and Duval County fell 5.8%.

Leon County also saw a notable decline of 5.7% since October 2025.

Tourism-heavy counties were particularly vulnerable during the slowdown. Monroe, Sarasota, Charlotte, and Seminole counties all posted declines exceeding 5% after the peak period.

Despite the economic slowdown, several counties still maintained positive overall taxable sales growth, indicating stronger consumer activity and comparatively resilient local economies.

Sumter County led the state with a total gain of 19.8%, followed by Clay County at 18.5% and Saint Johns County at 12.6%. Manatee County remained strong at 10.0%, while Nassau County posted 7.3% total growth.

Other counties that stayed in positive territory included Orange, Lake, Sarasota, Marion, Palm Beach, Brevard, Walton, Santa Rosa, and Leon counties, though some showed only modest gains after recent declines.

The statewide total remained positive at 5.0%, suggesting Florida’s economy overall continues to outperform many states despite weaker consumer spending trends.

Still, a growing number of counties have now slipped into negative territory on the combined measure. Broward County posted a total decline of 5.5%, Lee County fell 4.9%, and Seminole and Monroe counties each recorded a negative 7.9% total change — the weakest overall performance among the counties analyzed.

The data highlights a widening divide between counties that continue benefiting from population growth and in-migration and those more dependent on tourism, discretionary spending, or slower-growing local economies.

Correa has more than 20 years of Tallahassee-based experience in commercial lending, business banking and relationship management.

“Business owners in the Tallahassee region need a banking partner who understands the local market and delivers responsive, practical financial solutions,” said Don May, regional market executive for North Florida and South Georgia. “Willie’s extensive experience in commercial banking, combined with his strong community ties and relationship-focused approach, enhances our ability to serve clients and support continued growth across the region.”

The press release noted that “Correa is a relationship-driven business banker and commercial lender who helps businesses grow through personalized banking strategies, commercial lending support and business development opportunities. Fluent in Spanish, he works closely with clients seeking lenders for business loans as well as those looking to establish a business bank account and build long-term financial relationships.”

Prior to joining Capital City Bank, Correa spent more than 20 years in the banking and financial services industry, holding roles of increasing responsibility in commercial lending, business banking and relationship management. His experience includes structuring lending solutions, managing deposit relationships and supporting ongoing credit needs, including renewals and portfolio growth. Throughout his career, he has contributed to the development of business banking teams and helped drive initiatives focused on expanding commercial client relationships and service offerings.

An active member of the Tallahassee community, Correa has served as president of Capital Action and Catholic Charities. He has also coached youth baseball in Tallahassee for more than 20 years. His long-standing community involvement reflects his commitment to building strong relationships and supporting local businesses.

Correa is based at the Capital City Bank Bradfordville Road Office at 6691 Thomasville Road. More information is available at bankers.ccbg.com/fl/tallahassee/willie-correa.html.

In his new position, Browning will focus on fostering strategic partnerships, supporting member engagement and advancing initiatives that contribute to a more vibrant and competitive business environment in Florida’s capital city.

“Philip’s history of leadership within the Chamber and his strong background in growing businesses make him a natural fit for this role,” said Michael Dalby, President and CEO of the Greater Tallahassee Chamber of Commerce. “He brings both the relationships and the results-driven mindset needed to support our members and move our mission forward.”

Originally from Atlanta, Browning moved to Tallahassee in 2005 to play football at Florida State University under legendary Coach Bobby Bowden. He and his wife, Jessica, have made Tallahassee their permanent home, where they raise their three sons.

The press release noted that “Browning has been deeply engaged in the local business and civic community. He previously served as a member of Access Tallahassee, including roles on the Access Council and as Council Chair. During his tenure, he helped lead impactful community initiatives such as the installation of Little Free Libraries throughout the area.”

Browning served five years on the Greater Tallahassee Chamber of Commerce Board of Directors, where he was Chair of both the Economic Competitiveness Committee and the Talent and Workforce Committee. Browning was also a part of Leadership Tallahassee Class 38. 

Most recently, Browning served as vice president of sales at Synchros, where he expanded the company from a regional payroll provider into a national payroll and HR solutions firm by cultivating new client relationships and driving strategic growth.

“I’m honored to step into this role with the Chamber,” said Browning. “Tallahassee has given so much to my family and me, and I’m excited to contribute to its continued growth by supporting our business community and helping create new opportunities for success.”