Signed

Four stars

WR Maurice Goolsby, OL Dontae Lucas, DE Curtis Fann, DE Derrick McLendon, LB Jaleel McRae, LB Kalen DeLoach, S Raymond Woodie

Three stars

OL Jay Williams, OL Maurice Smith, DT Tru Thompson, DE Malcolm Ray, LB Kevon Glenn, CB Renardo Green, CB Jarvis Brownlee

Committed but not yet signed

Five Stars

CB Akeem Dent

Four stars

DE Quashon Fuller, CB Travis Jay, S Brendan Grant, S Nick Cross

The class took two major hits on Wednesday with QB Sam Howell flipping to North Carolina and DT Derek Hunter flipping to Texas A&M. On Thursday the class took another blow as OL Will Putnam chose Clemson over the ‘Noles.

The 15th-ranked class is actually pretty good for a team that missed out on a bowl game, but missing on two positions of need put a lot of pressure on Taggart and staff to bring in players at quarterback and offensive line.

New and uncommitted old targets including possible transfers

WR Jaden Haselwood, OL Kamaar Bell, QB John Rhys Plumlee, QB Lance LeGendre, OL Josh Cooper, OL Kadeem Telfort, OL Dawand Jones, Georgia quarterback Justin Fields, Alabama quarterback Jalen Hurts, Notre Dame quarterback Brandon Wimbush, Houston quarterback D’Eriq King

On this Thanksgiving Saturday at noon the Seminoles will host the rival Gators on ABC in Doak.

The Florida Gators are 8-3 and ranked 11th in the College Football Playoff poll. Their 8 wins have come against Charleston Southern, Colorado State, Tennessee, Mississippi State, LSU, Vanderbilt, South Carolina and Idaho. Their 3 losses have come against Kentucky, Georgia and Missouri. Florida is 3-0 on the road this season.

Last year the Seminoles took advantage of four Gator turnovers to help fuel a 38-22 victory in the Swamp.

The last time the Seminoles played UF at home was two years ago when the defense sacked Austin Allenby six times helping the home team secure the 31-13 win.

The last time Florida defeated FSU was in Doak Campbell Stadium in 2012. EJ Manual threw 3 interceptions in the 37-26 defeat.

Observations from the Boston College game

Inserting Leonard Warner into the starting lineup and moving Dontavious Jackson to outside linebacker seemed to help defend Boston College’s great running attack. Coverage of the opposing tight end was a little shaky as Tommy Sweeney was open quite a few times.

Walt Bell continues to give the opposing defenses different looks and is helping create holes for Cam Akers and Jacques Patrick.

Deondre Francois was very erratic for the first three quarters throwing two interceptions. Some of his misfires were throwaways deep downfield to avoid the sack.

The offensive line played better against the power pass rushers from Boston College and we will see how they do against the speed guys of Florida. Brady Scott came in for Jauan Williams in the second half and that move helped get the offense going. Florida State scored on three out of the five possessions that Scott was in the game.

Florida State offense versus Florida defense

The Seminoles once again go up against a great pass rush. Going up against the pass rushers from Miami, Clemson, NC State, Notre Dame and Boston College have prepared the offense well for this rivalry game. Jachai Polite (8.5 sacks) and Jabari Zuniga (5.5 sacks) use their speed more than their power when trying to get to the opposing quarterback. CeCe Jefferson is also a good pass rusher but has missed a few games and is still trying to work his way back. The Florida defensive tackles are not that disruptive in terms of tackles for loss but take-up blocks that help the linebackers fill in the hole and make tackles.

The Gators top tacklers are linebackers Vosean Joseph and David Reese as well as safety/linebacker Chauncey Gardner-Johnson. Florida defensive coordinator Todd Grantham likes to bring the blitz to try to create pressure just like his counterpart, Coach Barnett. This got Florida in trouble early on against South Carolina but they dial it back and started to make stops that helped them come back. I’m curious to see what he does against a struggling FSU offensive line. If the Gators are not able to get home on a blitz Tamarrion Terry, Noonie Murray and others might be able to get behind the coverage to make a big play.

The Gators secondary is young but very talented. They played well against decent quarterbacks but good quarterbacks like Drew Locke from Missouri were able to pick them part. Francois has to improve from the last game to take advantage of the young secondary.

Florida State defense versus Florida offense

The Gators like to run the ball with four different players. Running backs Jordan Scarlett and Lamical Perine split carries most of the time with Dameon Pierce getting a few here and there as well. Feleipe Franks used to be a quarterback that ran just to keep the defense honest on the read option. Lately he has been using his power on designed runs. He has scored six TDs on 84 carries this season.

This season Florida Coach Dan Mullen likes to pass the ball only necessary as the Gator offense has run the ball 121 more times than they have passed the ball. Franks has struggled with his accuracy against good defenses but does possess a very strong arm. Expect Florida to try to test the FSU safeties, Hamsah Nasirildeen and AJ Westbrook, deep in the middle of the field. Hopefully cornerback Lavonta Taylor (2 interceptions against Florida last year) will most likely be back for this matchup so that Stanford Samuels can move back to safety. Samuels really hit his stride at corner last week so it will be interesting to see what Harlan Barnett wants to do with him.

Franks has done a good job spreading the ball around to different receivers. Five Florida receivers have more than 18 catches. Van Jefferson has been his favorite target with 27 catches for 347 yards and five TDs. Quick receivers Kedarius Toney and Josh Hammond are targeted for short passes while Tyrie Cleveland and Trevon Grimes are red zone threats. Florida tight ends have only accounted for 10 catches which is good news for FSU because the Seminoles have had trouble with this position the past couple weeks. Florida State will go up against an experienced and big offensive line once again. Every starter on the Florida line has been in the program for at least 3 years. Marvin Wilson, Demarcus Christmas and Brian Burns will need to take up blocks so that Warner and Jackson can get to the ball carriers easier.

Special teams

Florida has the advantage in the kicking and punting game. Gator kicker Evan McPherson has only missed two kicks on the year and his long is 48 yards. Florida punter Tommy Townsend is tied for 26th in the FBS in yards per punt at 44. Ricky Agauyo had a good game last week and hopefully that confidence will carry in to this week. Logan Tyler has continued his steady pumping. Both teams possess an electrifying return man but I think DJ Matthews has the edge due to his experience.

Prediction

Florida State is still last in the FBS and penalties per game, however Florida is sixth to last in the same category. Both teams like to take the ball away but are also prone to giving it up. So whoever makes the least amount of poor decisions and undisciplined plays will have quite the upper hand. Against Boston College the Seminoles were able to have a decent start but were still down 7-6 going to halftime. (Still a great improvement from 17-0). The ‘Noles have to get out to another start like that to give themselves a chance.

Yes there are several streaks on the line for this Seminole squad putting a lot of pressure on this game but there’s also plenty of pressure for Florida. The Gators are trying to end a five-game losing streak to their rival, put their name in the hat for a New Year’s Six bowl game and of course they are trying to end all of the streaks for the Seminoles.

Due to FSU’s experience with dealing with talented pass rushers it won’t affect the home team as much as the Gators are hoping. With the new lineup in the linebacking corps I think the Seminoles will be able to deal with the Gators 4-headed rushing attack (Franks, Scarlett, Perine and Pierce).

Florida State will play just good enough to start to keep them in it but with a big second half they will take the lead. With the Seminoles clinging to a 3-point lead in the final minutes the Gators will attempt a game-tying field goal. With every FSU knowing it will go through the Seminoles will block it sending Doak into a frenzy and to a 30-27 victory.

On Saturday the Seminoles will head to South Bend, Indiana to take on the Notre Dame Fighting Irish at 730 on ABC. The game time temperature is projected to be around 25°.

The Fighting Irish are undefeated at 9-0 on the season. Their wins have come against Michigan, Ball State, Vanderbilt, Wake Forest, Stanford, Virginia Tech, Pittsburgh, Navy and Northwestern.

The last meeting between Florida State and Notre Dame was in 2014 in Tallahassee. Florida State won the game 31-27 to extend its perfect season. In the final moments of this game Notre Dame thought they had taken the lead but offensive pass interference was called against the Irish. Notre Dame failed to convert on 4th and goal from the 18 to give the Seminoles the ball back.

The last time Notre Dame won a game in the series was in 2002.

Observations from the North Carolina State game

Offensive coordinator Walt Bell called the plays for the first time this season. I thought he did a fairly good job and I guess coach Taggart did too, because he announced earlier this week that Bell will continue to call the plays for the rest of the year.

James Blackman started off slowly but he ended up passing for over 400 yards and 4 TDs, which was good enough to give him the ACC quarterback of the week award. Taggart has still not declared who will start at quarterback at Notre Dame, but with last week’s showing I think all signs point to Blackman starting again.

The rushing attack continues to struggle as the Seminoles only managed 45 yards rushing from running backs.

Starting cornerback Lavonta Taylor was sorely missed. Starting safety Stanford Samuels had to replace him and the pass defense suffered committing 4 pass interference penalties.

Florida State offense versus Notre Dame defense

Notre Dame has solid and experienced players littered throughout the defense. Playmakers that stand out the most at each level of the defense are cornerback Julian love in the secondary, linebacker Te’von Coney and defensive tackle Jerry Tillery. Love is 5th in the FBS with 12 pass breakups. Tillery is a pass-rushing machine from the defensive tackles spot. He is 18th in the country in sacks at seven and is tied for seventh in forced fumbles with three. Coney is a stat stuffer at linebacker who leads the team in tackles at the 80. He also has three sacks, three pass breakups, an interception and a fumble recovery. Drue Tranquill, Notre Dame’s other playmaking linebacker, is questionable for the matchup. In previous games he has played in passing downs situations only. All signs point to that happening again.

The Irish defense has not made a whole lot of tackles for loss in the running game this season. If that continues to be an issue, FSU might be able to stay in manageable second down and third down situations. James Blackman and the Seminole offense played well in the Independence Bowl in last year’s finale. Hopefully the solid play in the cold will continue this weekend. Blackman and the rest of the offense will try to push the ball down the field to big play receivers to Tamarrion Terry and DJ Matthews. If Florida State is able to get this going, it might be able to open some running lanes for the read option later in the game.

Florida State defense versus Notre Dame offense

Irish quarterback Ian Book leads the nation in completion percentage at 75%, but reports are that Book may not play due to a rib injury. This means Devin Wimbush would be the starter at quarterback. Notre Dame was still a run heavy team with over 100 more rushing attempts than passing attempts even with Book’s success. Bush was only able to throw for 500 yards and a TD with 4 interceptions in his three starts.

Dexter Williams is the team’s leading rusher with 568 yards and 8 TDs. Tony Jones Jr and Jafar Armstrong are other options for the Irish at running back. Wimbush is also a threat to run with 52 carries on the year. When they do throw it they like to spread it around to receivers Miles Boykin, Chase Claypool, and Chris Finke and tight end Alize Mack.  Notre Dame’s offensive line is experienced on the right side and talented, but young on the left. Brian Burns, Janarius Robinson and other Florida State pass rushers will need to get back to creating havoc in the backfield once again.  North Carolina State and Clemson have the best offensive lines the ‘Noles will see, so I expect them to have a little bit more success this week.

Pittsburgh, who gave up only 19 points to the Irish, runs a similar defense to the one that Harlan Barnett uses at Florida State. (Pittsburgh’s head coach Pat Narduzzi and Harlan Barnett both coached under Michigan State head coach Mark Dantonio). This will help the defense recognize what Wimbush and the Irish are trying to do to them.

The past two weeks FSU has faced the best quarterbacks it will see all season and this forced the secondary to play more on its heels instead of bearing down on the run. This made more holes available to opposing running backs making life on the defense very difficult. This was supposed to be the case this week as well, but due to Wimbush being less accurate the Seminole defensive backs will be able to take more chances. Without Lavonta Taylor being in the lineup for the Seminoles the Irish receivers should have an easier time getting separation. Freshman Asante Samuel and converted safety Stanford Samuels will need to showcase their talent to help get the ‘Noles a chance.

Special teams

After playing well against Miami and Wake Forest the special teams have been abysmal the past two weeks. Almost every time there has been a return there has also been a penalty, forcing the offense to start with terrible field position. Keeping the mistakes to a minimum on special teams could help the garnet and gold immensely. I will take Justin Yoon, Notre Dame’s kicker, over Ricky Agauyo in this game due to experience in the bad weather. We will have to see how the weather affects Logan Tyler, but I think he will continue his improvement. Notre Dame punter Tyler Newsome is averaging 45 yards per punt, which is 2 yards better than Tyler. The Irish definitely have the edge on special teams.

Prediction

The biggest key to this game will be discipline, with the emphasis on penalties. Over the last two games Florida State has had 32 penalties for 255 yards. Due to these numbers, FSU has dropped to dead last in the FBS with 9.9 penalties per game. Notre Dame is averaging the 16th least amount of penalties per game at 4.7.

When looking at the stats there isn’t one thing that Notre Dame does that stands out. With that being said, they do everything well. They are around 30th in the country in yards passing, yards rushing, passing yards allowed and rushing yards allowed. The passing attack was able to catch up to the running game with the emergence of quarterback Ian book. Through the first three games with Devin Wimbush, Notre Dame was 99th in scoring offense and in the eight games that Ian Book started the Fighting Irish offense moved to number 27. With their ability to avoid mistakes, Notre Dame makes the opponents beat themselves. Most offenses have to take the ball the length of the field to score against ND, which helps make the Irish 17th in the FBS in points allowed at 19.3 per game.

I think the injury to Book will make a difference in the final score, but I do not think it will affect the outcome. I believe the Fighting Irish will extend its perfect record to 10-0 by knocking off the Seminoles 38-21.

This Saturday at 3:30 the Seminoles will take on the rival Hurricanes in Miami Gardens at Hard Rock Stadium. FSU has won 7 straight games in the stadium including 2 orange bowls. The last time Miami beat Florida State in Miami was in 2004 at the Orange Bowl when Frank Gore scored on a walk-off touchdown in overtime. Perhaps this is the reason some Seminole fans call it Doak South or Seminole Hard Rock Stadium. A couple memorable moments during the streak for FSU are when Jameis Winston led a 16 point comeback capped off by Jalen Ramsey’s interception in 2014 and Demarcus Walker’s blocked PAT in 2016.

Last season’s matchup started off slowly but it had a furious finish as Florida State took the lead with 1:24 to go. However, Miami scored the winning touchdown with just 6 seconds on the clock and ended FSU’s 7 game winning streak in the rivalry.

Miami had an opening loss to LSU but has since reeled off 4 straight wins against Savannah State, Toledo, FIU and North Carolina.

Observations from the Louisville game

Corey Durden is a liability in the run game but is a good pass rusher from the defensive tackle spot.

The 3rd down struggles continue for both sides of the ball. It is baffling how many times the defense gives up first downs on third down and long.

The communication between the linebackers and safeties on pass plays has to get better soon. Many times there would be big holes in the middle of the field that could have ended up in big plays for Louisville. Thankfully for Florida State, Juwan Pass was unable to connect with his receivers on most of these miscommunications.

The offensive line was considerably better this past weekend. There wasn’t much room for the backs to get many yards but the big guys were able to protect their quarterback very well. It was the first time since 2014 that the FSU offensive line did not give up a sack in a game.

In the first half Brian Burns was lined up against Louisville’s left tackle Becton and was unable to get consistent pressure. In the second half coach Barnett lined him up on the right tackle and Burns was able to force Pass to throw it sooner than he wanted to on multiple occasions.

Florida State offense versus Miami defense

Last year FSU had success running the football against the Miami defense. The Seminoles combined to rush for 203 yards with Cam Akers going for 121 yards on the ground. I’m not sure that that will happen this year due to the offense still adjusting to Taggart’s scheme. As discussed in the previous previews other reasons as to why the running game has struggled are that the backs are trying to go for the big play, poor blocking, penalties and Francois’ inability to grasp the read option.

I expect the garnet and gold to try to challenge the D the same way UM will try to attack FSU. That is by using the quickness of slot guys Noonie Murray and DJ Matthews to try to get in behind the blitzers and using the athleticism of big-play receiver Tamorrion Terry. The Miami secondary is very experienced so it will be a little more challenging for the Seminoles.

Strong safety Jaquan Johnson should be back in the lineup for the orange and green. Florida State’s offensive line has been good at protecting the quarterback when the opposing defenses use the normal four-man blitz recently but they still struggle deciding who to block against pre-snap shifts, stunts and five or more rushers. Miami will try all three of these ways to produce pressure. This is one of the reasons why they lead the nation in tackles for loss per game at 12. Defensive lineman Gerald Willis and Jonathan Garvin have combined for 20 tackles for loss this is season. FSU hasn’t been very good at preventing tackles for loss by ranking in the 100s in this category. Experienced O-lineman Derrick Kelly and Landon Dickerson remain questionable for this matchup. Other defenders to look out for in the Miami scheme are talented linebackers Shaq Quarterman and Michael Pinckney.

Florida State defense versus Miami offense

QB N’Kosi Perry is coming off his 1st career start against UNC. The run game and defense dominated the Tar Heels so he only threw the ball 12 times going 8/12 and for 125 yards in the 47-10 win. Malik Rosier started the first 4 games but struggled just enough to give Perry a chance at the starting job. Perry showed off his talents in relief to earn the start versus UNC. Perry will remain the starter against this weekend.

Miami has three senior offensive linemen on the left side of the line and this is where UM has had the most success running the football. The Hurricanes like to establish the run with Travis Homer (364 yards) and Deejay Dallas (338 yards) first and then take some shots off play action. To keep that from happening the Seminoles defensive tackles will to keep up their solid play from the first month of the season. Keeping Demarcus Christmas, Marvin Wilson and Fred Jones in the lineup while the ‘Noles D is on the field will be a big help. If Miami can get the run game going it will be a long day for the Seminoles. The safeties and sometimes the linebackers will need to stay back to help defend Miami slot receiver Jeff Thomas. The Seminoles have bad trouble defending the slot receiver position through the years. Thomas is the fastest receiver FSU has gone up against so if he can get room in the secondary he can turn a short catch to a long touchdown or burn the defense over the top. In the red zone Miami will try to target their big receivers Lawrence Cager and Darrell Langham.

Special teams

FSU definitely has the advantage at kicker. Ricky Agauyo started off slowly just like last year but went 3 for 3 against Northern Illinois. He has experience in the rivalry and in the stadium. However, that doesn’t always mean success for Florida State kickers against Miami.

Bubba Baxa is a true freshman who is 4/5 this year but his long is only 38 yards. I would give Zach Feagles the edge over Logan Tyler in the punting game. The two teams have very talented athletes in the return game but Miami’s coverage teams have been performing better this season.

The Rivalry

The connections between the two schools on the coaching staffs and rosters are another reason why this rivalry so heated. Most of the players played each other in high school and some even played on the same team. Miami receivers coach Ron Dugans went to FAMU DRS in Tallahassee, played for Florida State, winning a national championship in 1999 and was a grad assistant for FSU in ’05 and ‘06. Head coach Mark Richt was graduate assistant, QB coach, offensive coordinator under Bobby Bowden from 1985-’88 and 1990 until the end of the 2000 season when he took the head-coaching job at Georgia. Defensive graduate assistant Matt Gazzillo is a Florida State alumnus and my fraternity brother. (Come on ‘Noles this means a little extra for me too.) Miami defensive coordinator Manny Diaz was a defensive grad assistant for FSU from ’98-’99. Cade Weldon and Brandon Jennings Jr’s dads are former Seminoles as well.

FSU tight ends Telly Lockette is from Miami and coached high school football at Miami Northwestern and Miami Central helping both schools claim state championships. FSU offensive line coach Greg Frey played for Mark Richt with the Seminoles from ’92-96. Defensive line coach Odell Haggins was on the same Florida State staff as Richt for 7 years. No doubt Manny Diaz learned a couple things from coach Haggins as well. Mario Edwards Sr. played one season for the Miami Dolphins after starring for the Seminoles at cornerback from ‘95 to ‘99.

Prediction and why

Both defenses like to bring the blitz in any situation. This will mean tackles for loss and chunk plays for both teams. When Miami brings the heat they are more consistent than Florida State at getting to the ball carrier. I think that miscommunication in the FSU secondary will lead to a long touchdown pass for Perry. Also, negative plays on first and second down for the FSU offense will force Francois to make bad decisions that will lead to a couple turnovers. These mistakes help Miami secure the victory. I think FSU keeps it close into the fourth quarter, but those turnovers will turn into touchdowns giving Miami a 34-17 victory. I hope the ‘Noles can prove me wrong because writing the last two sentences was very difficult!

This Saturday at 3:30 FSU will travel to Louisville to take on the Cardinals.

Louisville is 2-2 on the season with wins against Indiana State and Western Kentucky and losses to Alabama and Virginia.

The Cardinals have beaten the Seminoles two years in a row. The last time FSU played at Louisville they were thrashed 63-20 in the game that helped propel Lamar Jackson to the Heisman trophy. Last year the defense played decent against Jackson and the Cardinals but a late turnover by James Blackman turned out costly as FSU lost 31-28.

Florida State observations from the last game

The Florida State offense showed signs of life last weekend against Northern Illinois. During the first 40 minutes or so of the game the only thing that stopped the offense was itself. Hanging on to the football was the main issue as FSU fumbled twice, dropped a couple passes and had a costly high snap during this stretch.

The much-maligned offensive line was able to block well against the Huskies base defense. They still struggled against the blitz but showed improvement from the game before. When left tackle Abdul Bello went out of the game midway through the third quarter the offense reverted back to playing like they did in the first three games. While he was out coach Taggart called mostly run plays and NIU was able to pick up on it, stalling the Seminole offense for a few drives. When Bello came back Francois hit Tamorrion Terry for the long touchdown that busted the game open.

Francois looked more like the 2016 version of himself for most of the game except for a couple wild decisions that led to turnovers. The skill position players all had solid games except for tight end Tre’ McKitty who dropped some passes and fumbled.

The Seminole defense has been very stout against the run this season and really showed that last weekend allowing just 6 yards rushing to Northern Illinois. They did all this without their most experienced defensive tackle Demarcus Christmas. He should be back this week. The secondary fell asleep a few times during the game. Northern Illinois was able to get some really long plays on third down and the ‘Noles even gave up two touchdowns through the air.

Florida state defense versus Louisville offense

Louisville is being secretive about who will be the quarterback on Saturday. The quarterbacks to choose from are 6-4 Juwan Pass, who is more of a pro-style quarterback that will get yards running only when it’s the last resort and redshirt freshman Malik Cunningham. I think they will go with Cunningham because he is the teams leading rusher and is just good enough at throwing the ball to make the FSU corners pay for blowing an assignment, which happens a few times a game.

In last week’s game Cunningham was able to move the offense but they were not able to convert those drives into points. Louisville has three running backs that share the carries and they are Jeremy Smith, Trey Smith and Dae Williams. All of them have struggled as neither of them has surpassed the hundred-yard mark for the season. The Cardinals’ most talented offensive weapon is preseason first-team All-ACC wide receiver Jaylen Smith. Due to the struggles at quarterback and his inability to catch the ball at times Smith has only racked up 8 catches through the first four games. He is definitely the best wide receiver FSU who has gone up against this season and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him have a big game. Dez Fitzpatrick is another wide receiver to look out for.

The only way I see Louisville being able to get any yards on the ground is with the quarterback on the outside. Dealing with Jaylen Smith and Fitzpatrick will be the biggest question mark for the defense. Smith will most likely be double teamed for most of the game so it will be up to Fitzpatrick to help get the Louisville offense going. Cornerback Lavonta Taylor will need to play his most consistent game of the season for the Seminoles if he hopes to help keep the Cardinals from getting a lot of big plays. Cornerback Kyle Meyers will need to continue his solid play while dealing with the talented receivers. It will be up to Adonis Thomas, DeCalon Brooks, Jaiden Woodbey and Stanford Samuels to help spy on the quarterback Cunningham if coach Petrino decides to go with him.

Florida State offense versus Louisville defense

Coach Taggart and offensive line coach Greg Frey may have found the best line combination this past weekend. Bello, Arnold, Eberle, Minshew and Scott played decent together, which was able to free up some time for Francois and the running backs to get going. The most talented lineman for the Seminoles when the season started was Landon Dickerson and he is hopeful to return this weekend. This would add some much needed depth.

Louisville has a very young front seven but the secondary is the biggest weakness for this side of the ball. The deficiencies in the backfield were masked by Virginia’s young quarterback inability to push the ball down the field when needed. This part of his game was not called on very much last week as all the pre-snap motion and Virginia’s ability to run the football put them in non-throwing situations. The Cardinals defense will get a big boost this weekend when Dorian Etheridge returns in the middle of the linebacking corps. Last year he was third in the nation among freshmen with 66 tackles, which earned him freshman All-American honors. Louisville only has six sacks on the season and .5 of those are from defensive ends. Defensive tackles GG Robinson and Jarret Jackson have two each. Petrino’s guys will add to this total but limiting the Cardinals to only a couple could go a long way towards a Seminole victory.

Florida State probably won’t have a whole lot of success on the ground in the middle so it’ll be up to the wide receivers and tight ends to block on the perimeter in order for the running backs to have success. Downfield plays in the passing game will be needed to have the Louisville safeties play further back.

Special teams

Ricky Agauyo was back to his old self last weekend going 3-3 including a 50 yard field goal to end the first half. Blanton Creque is also a solid kicker so this position is a wash once again. The punting averages are about the same as well. Both teams have speed at the return positions but DJ Mathews for the ‘Noles is a better returner when people don’t get blocked in the back. So I would say State has a very slight edge in special teams.

Prediction and why

At the beginning of the season the trip to Kentucky seemed like the more difficult early-season road game for the Seminoles. But with Syracuse getting out to a fast start and Louisville struggling so badly it seems like the experts were wrong.

Both teams seem to have the same problems like not having much of a rhythm on offense and a pretty good run defense with holes in the secondary. I think Florida State will be better at stopping the run but will still give up two or three big plays to allow Louisville to score around 20 points. I think the Seminoles offense will manage to score just enough to keep its postseason hopes alive. FSU gets the victory 23-21. If the offense turns it over as many times as it did against Northern Illinois it will be a different story.

This Saturday at 3:30 on ESPNU the Seminoles on take on Northern Illinois.

Northern Illinois is 1-2 on the season with losses to Iowa and Utah and a win versus Central Michigan.

The last time these two played was in the 2013 Orange Bowl. FSU won the game 31 to 10. This game was Northern Illinois coach Rod Carey’s first game as a head coach as well.

Florida State offense versus Northern Illinois defense

Florida State’s offense has been anemic at best scoring five points per game against FBS level opponents and only scoring 29 on offense versus Samford. The Northern Illinois’ defense is the focal point of their team so I’m not sure the offense will find as much success as we want it to on Saturday either.

The offensive line has clearly been the biggest issue. Jauan Williams and Baveon Johnson have not developed as quickly as expected and starters Derrick Kelly, Landon Dickerson and Cole Minshew have missed time and will miss the game as well. The problems on offense don’t stop there as Francois is still missing reads and is sometimes wildly inaccurate, the receivers can’t hang on to the ball and the backs keep trying to make big plays when they’re just not there. Coach Taggart has promised to try to figure out ways to help the offensive line keep the quarterback up right in the pocket. Some ways that have been talked about to do so are leaving more backs and receivers in to block, rolling Francois out of pocket and more quarterback-designed runs.

The Huskies defense is led by junior defensive end Sutton Smith, who was a 2017 second team All-American. Last year Smith recorded an astonishing 14 sacks and 29 1/2 tackles for loss. The defense is also very experienced as all but one starter is a junior or senior. Other players on the NIU defense to look out for are linebackers Kyle Pugh and Antonio Jones-Davis. In order for Florida State to have any success they have to have solid plays on first down in order to keep Northern Illinois guessing on later downs. The Seminoles are going to have to get most of their yards on the outside and hopefully they can make some big plays using their speed. Northern Illinois’ defense is too good and Florida State’s offense is too inconsistent to sustain drives.

Florida State defense versus Northern Illinois offense

Just like on the other side of the ball Florida State’s defense is the strength of the team. Last week the defense did everything they could to keep the Seminoles in the game but due to the team’s lack of possession they could only keep up the good play for so long. For the past several years the Seminoles have done well against slower, more pro-style offenses with a non-running quarterback like NIU. I expect that success to continue in this game with the lack of playmakers at the skill positions for the Huskies. Marcus Childers is the Northern Illinois quarterback and he is averaging just over 100 yards passing per game this season. With these numbers the Huskies will rely on their running game to move the ball. Tre Harbison and Jordan Nettles are the leading rushers with 228 and 130 yards respectively. Childers relies on really just two receivers and they are DJ Brown and Jauan Wesley. NIU’s offensive line is anchored by NFL caliber left tackle Max Scharping. The most interesting matchup on this side of the ball will feature Scharping and Bryan Burns. The FSU run defense is a strength of the team, which bodes well for the Seminoles because the Huskies will try to establish the run game for most of the contest. Look for Demarcus Christmas, Marvin Wilson, Fred Jones, Dontavious Jackson and Jaiden Woodbey to have big games.

Special teams

If Ricky Agauyo was kicking like he was last year I would say Florida State has an edge at kicker but he is struggling so it is about about even this position. The punters are about the same as well but Northern Illinois excels at blocking kicks so Logan Tyler will need to get his punts off quicker. Due to FSU’s wealth of speed they hold the edge in the return game if the blocking holds up.

Prediction and why

I expect this to be the defensive struggle with the lack of consistency shown by the two offenses this season and the plethora of defensive talent for both teams. If Northern Illinois exploits the Seminoles special teams FSU could trip up once again. But I think FSU scores just enough points to get it a 13-10 victory.

On Saturday at noon Florida State will take on ACC opponent Syracuse in the Carrier Dome.

Syracuse is 2-0 on the season with wins at Western Michigan 55-42 and against Wagner 62-10.

Last year Florida State defeated Syracuse in Tallahassee 27-24 on a missed field goal as time expired.

Florida State offense versus Syracuse defense

The health and development of the offensive line continues to be the main concern for the Seminole offense. At points during the game last week only two linemen that started the season were in the game. This is not good for the cohesion of the line. When Samford’s biggest playmaker on defense went out of the game in the third quarter the FSU offense started to figure things out and move the ball the way they are capable of. I hope that it was because FSU started playing better as opposed to being because Gooden was being that disruptive.

The Orange’s coach Dino Baber’s is very excited about his defensive ends, Alton Robinson and Kendall Coleman and if they are as good as he says they are as you FSU could have problems protecting Francois once again. Antwan Cordy is the nickel safety that Syracuse is high on and he will be matched in the passing game with Tre’ McKitty and hopefully sometimes for Florida State with DJ Mathews. After the three aforementioned players on the Syracuse D the orange don’t have a whole lot to offer on the side of the ball. If the Seminoles want to improve on offense this will be the game to try to get it done.

Florida State defense versus Syracuse offense

The FSU defense has started the two previous games slowly and will need to play well from the start in order to keep Syracuse out of rhythm and keep from wearing themselves out the defending so many plays in the beginning of the game. This will be the Seminoles first game this season against a fast-paced spread team with a very elusive dual threat quarterback, which is something they have struggled with under former defensive coordinator Charles Kelly. Hopefully seeing this in practice since Taggart arrived will help the defense slow the Syracuse offense down.

The Syracuse offense begins and ends with quarterback Eric Dungey. The senior Dungey lead the team in passing yards and rushing yards last season. He is doing the same this year with 402 yards passing and 244 yards rushing. Syracuse likes to push the tempo as fast as possible in their spread run pass option scheme. This year they are averaging 92 plays a game and last year they led the nation in plays per game at 88. When Dungey decides to pass he likes throwing to receivers Jerome Custis and Sean Riley. Running backs Moe Neal and Dontae Strickland are viable receiving options as well and will most likely split the carries on the ground.

The run stoppers in the middle will be able to keep Syracuse from running it in between the tackles but that might be okay with Syracuse as they like to run the ball on the outside with the quarterback and others. The players the orange was likely attack will be the outside linebackers and cover safeties like Jaiden Woodbey, DeCalon Brooks and Stanford Samuels Junior as they try to get them to commit to the outside runner or inside receivers. On the outside I think that the FSU cornerbacks will have a better game than last week.

Special teams

Sterling Hofrichter is the placekicker and punter for the Orange. Punting is more of his specialty and is highly regarded among ACC punters. Agauyo missed three case kicks early on last year and did not miss the rest of the seat so hopefully that trend continues this year as he is missed three already.

Prediction

I’m going to say Florida State eeks out its first victory in the ACC 38-37. Both offenses will be able to move the ball in between the twenties but getting it into the end zone will be a different story. I think that due to FSU’s run defense Syracuse will be forced to kick more field goals than they want helping the Seminoles secure the victory.

After a disappointing blowout loss to Virginia Tech, Florida State will face FCS opponent Samford at 7 PM on Saturday. Samford, originally Howard College, is located in Birmingham, Alabama and is where Bobby Bowden went to college.

The Samford Bulldogs defeated Shorter College 66-9 in their first game of the season on Saturday.

Last time these two teams played was in 2010 and Florida State won 59-6. This result should be a little bit closer as Florida State has yet to find its groove on offense, has just five days off and Samford is ranked 9th in the FCS. Last year the Bulldogs finished second in the Southern Conference but were eliminated in the first round of the playoffs by Kennesaw State.

Florida State offense versus Samford defense

Taggart will start Francois at quarterback but if he continues his tentative play he may have to consider James Blackman. The ‘Noles offense will be going up against a 3-4 defense led by outside linebacker Ahmad Gooden. Gooden will provide a nice test for the FSU offensive line, as he is someone who could disrupt a play if left in one-on-one situations or left all alone like we saw too many times on Monday night.  Hopefully the FSU offensive line can stay healthy during this game. Cole Minshew missed the Virginia Tech game due to a concussion and three other starters had to miss portions of the game due to injuries. Starting right tackle Landon Dickerson will miss this game with a high ankle sprain. Former defensive lineman Arthur Williams will replace Dickerson than the starting line up. Coach Hatcher of Samford is also excited about his safeties Sam Pettway and Koi Freeman. Overall Florida State has more speed and size than Samford on this side of the ball, which will mask most of the mistakes made by the offense as they continue to adjust to the new scheme.

Florida State defense versus Samford offense

The FSU defense was the highlight of the opening game and that should then continue into the second game. They kept the team in the game by getting stop after stop even while backed up. They really only gave up 14 points despite being on the field almost the entire second half. A lot of players played well in the first game but safety/linebacker Jaiden Woodbey really stood out as he recorded an NCAA record by a true freshman in his first game by racking up 9 tackles.

The Bulldogs boast one of the best passing tandems in the FCS with Devlin Hodges at quarterback and Kelvin McKnight and Chris Snelling at wide receiver. Hodges was a Walter Payton Award finalist last season and is Samford’s career leader in almost every passing and scoring category in the school’s history. Last year he threw for 3,983 yards and 39 touchdowns. I expect FSU’s defense to play well but the Bulldogs will challenge them through the air.

The last time Samford played an FBS team was last year when they lost 42-14 against national runner-up Georgia. The result should be similar as Florida State quarterbacks will be still learning how to run the offense, especially the run pass option portion of Taggart’s scheme while the offensive line figures out how to gel together. I’m not saying the Seminoles are near Georgia’s level but they should win by a few scores I’ll say FSU 40 Samford 13 will be the final.

The data shows that all FSU teams, except for football, scored over 960.

The FSU football team, which had a single year score of 918 last year, improved to 966 during the 2016-17 academic year and raised the four-year APR t0 941.

Also, 14 of the 18 FSU sports teams met or exceeded the four-year APR score reported last year.

Four FSU teams reported a perfect 1000 four-year APR for 2016-17.These teams are Women’s Beach Volleyball, Women’s Cross Country, Women’s Golf and Women’s Tennis.

The table below shows the four-year APR over the last two years for all FSU sports. A full searchable list can be found here.

This football team improvement raised the multi-year average from 939 to 941, which keeps the program eligible to participate in championships.

However, the football program still has the worst multi-year APR rating among all Power-5 programs. The Atlantic Coast Conference ranking are shown below.

In-state rival Florida reported a multi-year APR rating of 977 and Miami had an APR rating of 964.

The Tallahassee Democrat reported that FSU’s APR rating was among the lowest in the country throughout Jimbo Fisher’s tenure in Tallahassee.

ACC APR Ranking
1 Duke 992
2 Clemson 987
3 Boston College 985
4 Pitt 984
5 Louisville 981
6 Georgia Tech 980
7 Wake Forest 979
8 Virginia 969
9 Syracuse 967
T10 Miami 964
T10 NC State 964
T12 North Carolina 960
T12 Virginia Tech 960
14 Florida State 941

FSU came in at No. 7 with a total of 40 players. This was second among ACC schools, behind the University of Miami  (4th overall) who totaled 44 players and ahead of Clemson University (8th overall) who placed 38 players in the NFL.

Approximately 285 schools from all levels of college football  were represented on NFL rosters for Opening Day 2017.

Four SEC schools — LSU, Florida, Alabama and Georgia — cracked the Top 10.

LSU came in at No. 1 with a total of 51 players. Florida was tied with USC for No. 2 with 45. Alabama tied Miami for fourth place with 44, and Georgia came at No. 8  tied with Clemson on the list with 38 NFL players.

The Big Ten added two teams – Ohio State (42) and Michigan (35) – and the Pac-12 was represented by Southern Cal.

However, the FSU Football took a major dive in the APR and finished last in the Atlantic Coast Conference and last among teams in the Power Five conferences.

The table below shows the four-year APR rate and the 2016 APR for all FSU sports. A full searchable list can be found here.

The NCAA has been tracking APR for 12 years. It is a tool used to establish a baseline academic standard. The rating factors in eligibility, retention and graduation of each scholarship athlete. The NCAA penalizes teams with an APR of 930 or below with sanctions, which can include loss of postseason eligibility.

The latest rankings are based on a four-year rolling average and FSU’s 2015-2016 APR was calculated to be 939. This ranks last among the 64 schools in the Power Five conferences which are in the National Collegiate Athletic Association (NCAA)’s Division I Football Bowl Subdivision (FBS).

But more important than the rankings is how close the four-year average of 939 is to the NCAA threshold for penalties and sanctions.

Consider this.

The individual APR’s recorded for the last four years are listed below

FSU APR’s
_______________

2013 – 959
2014 – 943
2015 – 934
2016 – 918

4-YR Ave. 939
_______________

The problem that FSU football faces next year is that their highest APR, which occurred in 2013, will fall from the four-year calculation. This means if FSU scores an APR of 924 or less in 2017, the four-year average will fall below 930.

NCAA APR METHODOLOGY

Each student-athlete receiving athletically related financial aid earns one point for staying in school and one point for being academically eligible.

A team’s total points are divided by points possible and then multiplied by 1,000 to equal the team’s Academic Progress Rate.

In addition to a team’s current-year APR, its rolling four-year APR is also used to determine accountability.

Currently, teams must earn a 930 four-year average APR or a 940 average over the most recent two years to participate in NCAA championships. In 2015-16 and beyond, teams must earn a four-year APR of 930 to compete in championships.

Last year FSU finished the regular season CFP at #3 with an academic rating of #22.

The rankings of the Top 10 teams are listed below.

To see full report click here.

New America compiled the rankings by using each school’s football graduation success rate (GSR).

Schools lose points for graduating football players at different rates than their overall male student body. To compare players to students, New America relied on federal rates, since there’s no GSR for the general population. (Since Navy, ranked no. 21 in football, does not provide a federal rate, the Midshipmen were excluded from these rankings). The bigger the discrepancy, the harsher the penalty.

It’s important to note that even if a school graduated football players at higher rates than the overall male student population — six schools in the top 25, Alabama, Baylor, Utah, Oklahoma, Houston, and Tennessee did so — the difference was counted as a penalty. Why? New America does not want to reward schools with low overall graduation rates. In fact, schools got an added bonus for having high overall rates.

Northwestern rose to the top on the strength of its 97% GSR for football players. But the biggest winner in these rankings might be Clemson. The country’s top football team finished a very solid fourth in the academic standings, behind scholastic stalwarts Northwestern, Notre Dame and Stanford. The Tigers face Oklahoma, No. 15 in academics, in one national semifinal on New Year’s Eve; Alabama, No. 6 in New America academics, plays Michigan State, No. 22, in the other.

Clemson turned in a solid 84% GSR for football, but more importantly, the school graduated football players at the same federal rate (79%) as the rest of the school’s male student body. “This suggests to us that unlike many schools with major college football programs, Clemson is treating the educations of its players and overall students equally,” says Benjamin Barrett, a researcher at New America.

The biggest disappointments? The University of North Carolina, whose athletic department has been tainted by a far-reaching academic fraud scandal, finished at the bottom of New America’s academic rankings. The team’s most recent federal graduation rate — 31% — fell way below the 88% rate of UNC’s male students. USC, which finished second-to-last, showed a similar disparity (41% for football players, 90% for the students). “That’s just unacceptable,” says Barrett.