August 6: Tracking Florida COVID-19 Cases, Hospitalizations, and Fatalities

August 6: Tracking Florida COVID-19 Cases, Hospitalizations, and  Fatalities

NOTE: We now include “current hospitalizations” rather than cumulative hospitalizations. The state began reporting this data on July 10.

TR will update the three charts below on a daily basis without commentary. Submit questions in the comments section.

Support Local Journalism with a $50 Annual
Tallahassee Reports Subscription

_______________

Positive Cases

The chart below tracks the daily positive cases and provides a 7-day average trend line based on cases reported by the Florida Department of Health (DOH) through August 6th.

Hospitalizations

The chart below tracks the daily hospitalizations and provides a 7-day average trend line based on cases reported by the Florida Department of Health (DOH) through August 6th.

Deaths

The chart below tracks the daily reported deaths and provides a 7-day average trend line based on cases reported by the Florida Department of Health (DOH) through August 6th.

774 Responses to "August 6: Tracking Florida COVID-19 Cases, Hospitalizations, and Fatalities"

  1. Avatar
    Curious   April 12, 2020 at 9:30 pm

    nice. A color-coded map of the cases by county would be good too!

    Reply
    • Avatar
      John   June 24, 2020 at 7:58 pm

      Color coded mapping is where the mass hypnosis all started. John Hopkins University started with these ridiculous bubble maps that make everything look like it is exploding. A proper statistician would never use a device like this that causes the observer to have a false sense of what is happening. The idea of a map or graph is to allow the observer to enhance an understanding of the statistics. Well what do you expect from the JOHN HOPKINS BLOOMBERG SCHOOL OF PUBLIC HEALTH. Must get a pretty penny for coming up with this disinformation. They have used the media and the global health agencies to create the confusion and fear that is needed for mass hysteria and hypnosis. Propaganda is and always has been more powerful than truth. Today’s propaganda is far superior than any ever seen In the history of Earth. It is very dangerous and the sociopaths that are controlling it are even more dangerous. I suspect that the average person on earth can be spun with lies very very easily. I don’t see any way out. Sad world we now live in.

      Reply
      • Avatar
        Ellen   June 25, 2020 at 2:29 pm

        Hmmm, interested in what you say, John. Agree that there is too much doomsday stuff going around! Is there a more accurate and honest graph or diagram that conveys what’s happening in a more truthful light, better than the John Hopkins depictions? THANKS.

        Reply
        • Avatar
          John Pudner   July 1, 2020 at 11:52 pm

          The disturbing part of these trends is that the models all predicted deaths would rise quickly until about April 20, then steadily drop off until they hot ZERO this week. Don’t focus on the cases – it’s the hospitalizations and deaths that were supposed to be at zero by now – NOONE thought they’d be rising again. This is very bad news. Many deniers asked is to follow sweden’s approach when their deaths numbers were low, now they have had 10 times as many per capital covid deaths as their bordering countries. The hysteria on this issue is from anti-mask people who believe this pandemic will somehow be different from the other pandemics throughout history.

          Reply
          • Avatar
            Jim   July 3, 2020 at 11:19 am

            Yes Denmark and Norway may now have much lower death rates, but that only means they have postponed – not eliminated – the inevitable. Sweden’s death rate is on par with France, UK, Belgium, Italy, Spain and other European countries that did lock down. The model predictions were all nonsense as local circumstances vastly impact the ultimate death rate. Sweden has been through the worst while actually saving the most vulnerable from an even higher death rate and not destroying their economy. They did have a quick risk and fall of Covid. Both their death rate and new cases are now way down. Yes, wearing a mask helps in the right circumstances and should be encouraged. But its fantasy to think it will eliminate the virus.

          • Avatar
            mmortal03   July 4, 2020 at 2:32 pm

            Jim, even if it were true that you couldn’t get cases down to zero, postponing the outbreak of the virus is still a good thing, because it gives us more time for improved treatments to be discovered, tested and rolled out.

          • Avatar
            Stephan   July 10, 2020 at 3:41 am

            Jim, just because you say it doesn’t make it true.
            USA, UK and Sweden currently have 1.2-1.9 daily fatalities per 1m of population, while the stricter countries (Belgium, France, Germany etc.) are all below 0.3 daily fatalities per 1m (source: ourworldindata.com).

          • Avatar
            Mike   July 10, 2020 at 10:58 am

            The case of rising deaths with rising cases would be expected with any virus. The question is the % of cases to death, which is in decline. It’s not a case of denial when it comes to just reading the data. Are people dying, yes… but when you factor the numbers for Florida it is still 1 in 25,000 will die. it then becomes a question that driving to the grocery store is more dangerous than catching Corona while shopping at the store. So, base point argument to the overall reaction is that we should ban driving because it’s more dangerous but yet we don’t… why??

          • Avatar
            Chris   July 17, 2020 at 2:06 pm

            Mike states that it is more dangerous to drive to the grocery store. Let’s look at the numbers, as they are not political. In 2018, approximately 3,000 Floridians died in car crashes. That is less than 10 fatalities per day. Yesterday 136 people died from Covid. That is 13 times more than traffic fatalities. Put another way, the Boeing 737 carries about 200 people. So we are experiencing the equivalent of a major airline crash every two days. Now let’s get political. If Florida had planes dropping out of the sky every two days, would our leaders be saying, “Don’t worry, keep flying, everything is under control?” Why is this different?

          • Avatar
            Bill   July 17, 2020 at 3:06 pm

            That is not the point. The argument that this is not a big problem because there are other causes of death (accidents, viruses, cancer, etc.) that kill more people than Covid is irrelevant to the decision-making process of how to deal with it. Why? Because all those other causes of death area already factored into our society system: number of hospital beds, medicines available, insurance costs, among many others. A new factor of disability/hospitalization/death for such a considerable number of people like Covid-19 is doing, causes terrible effects at many levels of the society. There is, therefore, wisdom in doing everything we can as a people to slow it down as much as possible, even if that means doing things that are not normal, like social distancing and wearing masks.

          • Avatar
            Matt Stefan   July 22, 2020 at 8:29 pm

            I am not sure where some of the stat are coming from but John Hopkins has the US currently at 3.6 deaths per 100k. This is better than most EU countries and is actually on the low side for the industrialized nations.

            I never heard anyone say deaths and hospitalizations would drive to 0 in April.

            I think the Sweden people would have been better off if the virus antibodies were effective long term. Unfortunately, it is now believed that they last 2 to 3 months.

          • Avatar
            Noreen   August 3, 2020 at 8:24 pm

            It doesn’t matter if you use graphs or bubble graphs, or color coded maps. The numbers, the daily numbers and the cumulative numbers is all you need to know. This isn’t complicated. There is no “mass hypnosis” happening. And regarding masks, what you learn in middle school about how “germs” get passed between people is pretty easy to understand: doctors and nurses use masks around contagious people so as not to spread the disease to others. Doctors and nurses have ALWAYS used masks in surgery and dentistry for the very same reason. If masks didn’t work, doctors wouldn’t be wearing them. Ive heard ridiculous stories of people now saying wearing mask can cause COVID or it creates breathing problems. This absurd stuff about how wearing masks show that you’re controlled by the state. It’s as if people like that just woke up in this world. I never heard this kind of hysteria around seatbelt, helmet wearing and drunk driving laws. If people can’t grasp simply biology and understand that face masks in public help a virulent, airborne disease from spreading, it shows their ignorance. And I feel sorry for them and their families. And it’s a disgrace to our education system, quite frankly. The rest of the world stopped laughing. They’re now just pitying us our ignorance.

        • Avatar
          Lee   July 4, 2020 at 11:47 am

          how does it work burying your head in the sand? All is just dandy there? Well, tell that to all the people who have lost loved ones and still losing. Just wear a mask, and keep your distance, so we all can get back to normal living and perhaps recover our economy sooner. I know the President likes spread the idea that those things are political ideas, and they are…his political divisive ideas. Just do the right thing for the economy…wear a mask…keep your distance…wash your hands well and frequently…and keep your hands away from your face inbetween.

          Reply
          • Avatar
            Lyn   July 13, 2020 at 10:57 am

            I cannot imagine having to hear that my parent died from COVID and I couldn’t be with them. Its a horrible thing. But my one question, regardless of who the president or governor is, how many people die everyday in FL in these age groups at any other time? I’ve been sitting in my house for months being respectful of others, but I need food, supplies, my son needs to go to school. And yet if my 90 year old uncle dies – and he did, and he has COPD and cancer and has COVID but not the symptoms, then he is a COVID death. I had 3 elderly family members pass during this time, all over 90. We are heartbroken because we can’t have a funeral, but the question is do you now expect that everyone stays inside forever because 3 people who enjoyed long lives died and had COVID. Only one did, but my question is, if 3 people normally die during June who are over 90, and one dies WITH COVID, do we now keep a single working mom at home because her job is non essential. How does she provide for her family? When does unemployment end and people begin to have real problems? So in the end, I’m on the fence. I don’t agree with who cares that people die. All of my daughters college friends went back to schools to live in their apartments and party because they were tired of hanging out with their parents who said you can’t go out. It’s not an easy problem to fix because some people don’t care, but its not the working class of America. We would like to see the virus contained, treated, vaccines and don’t care who gets credit for it.

          • Avatar
            Josh   July 14, 2020 at 11:57 am

            Lyn, let me help you with that, based on death certificate data, you can actually find out the exact number of deaths for various causes by week each year. In 2019, Florida had exactly 0 weeks of more than 4,000 deaths due to natural causes. ZERO. Every week in 2019, deaths averaged 3,650/week throughout the entire year. In 2020, Florida is on track to have at least 10 weeks with more than 4,000 deaths since April already. In April/May 2019 roughly 29,950 people died, in 2020, for the same 8 week period, ~32,550 died. People die too consistently for this to be an anomaly. This is all before the massive breakout recently where reported deaths are increasing, the death certificate data is still being tallied for June and July.
            More people are dying, it is undeniable when you look at the numbers. The sad reality is, more people are dying, and the choice is literally economy or lives. This is a period in time in which the government is supposed to be able to protect lives and keep the economy afloat by helping the people. That is one of the biggest points to a governemtn, to help the people during a crisis.

          • Avatar
            jimr   July 21, 2020 at 1:50 am

            Absent a cure or vaccine, the virus will eat until it starves…. We can flatten and extend the curve or peak and shorten the curve…. Take vitamin D, statins, and whatever and be smart about wearing a mask and stay out of crowded places.

        • Avatar
          Diane   August 4, 2020 at 12:01 pm

          Worldometers is a great source.

          Reply
      • Avatar
        Lloyd   June 26, 2020 at 12:05 am

        What the hell are you talking about? 120k deaths already and over 2 million cases, exactly 4 months after Trump said we had 15 cases that would be going to to 0 within a few days and how great of a job he was doing. THAT is the source of disinformation.

        Reply
        • Avatar
          Gonzo   June 27, 2020 at 11:03 am

          Get Trump out of your pea brain. If Biden had been in, it would have been MUCH worse. What, exactly should Trump have done that he didn’t do?

          Reply
          • Avatar
            AJ   June 29, 2020 at 6:22 pm

            Stop the flights from Europe.

          • Avatar
            Ben   June 30, 2020 at 5:05 pm

            He should have shown some leadership. Listen to his science team – they’ve actually been preparing for this for years. He should have encouraged wearing masks and other physical distancing. He should have acted sooner instead of minimizing the disease in Feb…

            “the heat, generally speaking, kills this kind of virus. So that would be a good thing.”

            “But we’re in great shape in our country,” he added. “We have 11, and the 11 are getting better.”

          • Avatar
            Simon   July 1, 2020 at 9:45 am

            I wish we could get Trump out. His desperate desire to force an economic restart, just because he’s banking his reelection on a strong economy, is backfiring. It is quite clear, despite his innumeracy, that his desire to “restart” the economy too soon (with his disciple, deSantis, in tow) is costing real lives. The number of hospitalizations across Florida are going up because deSantis because of the reopening. Anyone who says we are having more cases because of more testing is the real “pea brain” here. And don’t start throwing puerile comparisons with what Biden would have done. That is an exercise in mere hypotheticals – Biden is not yet in office. Trump should play less golf, stop pandering to Putin, stop blaming everyone else for his stupidity and start spend more time attending to his responsibilities in this country and showing some leadership. His handling of the pandemic will go down in history as a catastrophe.

          • Avatar
            Mark   July 1, 2020 at 1:35 pm

            Based on what you said it makes sense your name is GONZO !!! Trump to this day, despite the science, (but i am guessing you dont care about science…its too real) still will not tell people they should wear masks !!!The man (Donny Bone Spur) is a draft dodging coward who hides behind his Tweets !!

          • Avatar
            Ron Byers   July 2, 2020 at 10:58 am

            Turned the process over to the professionals. That is what happened in Europe and they are doing a much better job holding the line.

          • Avatar
            Lee H DEMAR   July 2, 2020 at 10:08 pm

            Do you have a Biden Crystal ball? Or just a stable genius?

          • Avatar
            Max   July 4, 2020 at 1:13 pm

            To all those hammering ‘Trump’, you clearly need to go back to elementary school and learn how our republic works. Trump did take advice of his experts and scientists. They even had said as much. The Feds gave out guidance and guidelines. STATES, individually, then took action, each charting their own course AS THEY SHOULD in a 50-state nation. Short of declaring martial law and usurping local powers, ‘The President’, Trump or Obama, could not just send out edicts — much as some would clear want (but clearly only when it’s “their” President). STATES are deciding when to relax their guidelines (some) or mandates (others, where Governors declared emergency, issue exec orders — again, as they are empowered to do). Get the Trump-hate out of your heat and mind and THINK. NY isn’t ‘Trump’s fault’, any more or less than Florida or Massachusetts. Reading some of the discourse, an obvious question should be what, pray tell, type of government do you wish for? Centralized power of Feds? Why even both have governors, mayors, etc. if Uncle Sugar is going to make all your decisions for you. And State officials blaming Trump for what THEY did or didn’t do?? — Just step down from power, now. Clearly you can’t handle the responsibility and the results from your OWN decisions. The guidance has been there to follow — or NOT — what each State has done or not done, that’s on the STATE and LOCAL authorities to own. These were THEIR decisions to make. Meanwhile, keep stoking the centralized big government fires. Blame the President for local authorities actions/inactions. Clearly we don’t educate people on how our own government is meant to work. Is THIS President issued exec orders, declared martial law, etc., these same blamers would be coming out of the woodwork to scream about it. Do you need to be reminded what happened the INSTANT Trump announced curtailing flights from China? Labels galore… motivated by racism/xenophobia, not safety. Give it a break. Meanwhile Pelosi was parading herself on San Fran TV encouraging people to get out and enjoy the city – because the narrative was “Trump shutting down China flights = racism = Chinatown business are suffering from stigma”. A month later, mayor of NY is encouraging people to get out and see a how, ride the subways. What a JOKE. What a bigger joke that people parrot this crap and get suckered into it.

          • Avatar
            James M   July 4, 2020 at 2:15 pm

            1.Upon receiving the intelligence briefing that China was lying about the severity of the outbreak Trump should have dispatched CDC teams to the international gateway airports to start screening passengers.

            2. Trump should have immediately accepted the WHO COVID-19 diagnostic tests when the CDC screwed up.

            3. If foreign travelers entering the airports were testing positive he should have shut down travel from those countries. Europe sent us the strain that killed most Americans not China.

            4. Trump should have immediately halted exports of PPE. He should have immediately invoked the National Defense Act to produce PPE and ventilators rather than dithering for months.

            5. Trump should have turned messaging over to the NIH and followed their guidance.

            6. Most importantly Trump should not have reached the conclusion that America would forgive him a body count but not a lower Dow Jones Industrial Average. Everything that has befallen us began when Trump put his re-election ahead of the country. Trump’s conclusions were wrong. The American electorate would have rewarded him for handling the health crisis professionally and forgiven him the economic price as America does when we fight a war. The country is more mature than Trump imagined. Urging the swift reopening of the American economy has set the US back many months in returning to normal. Trump’s private business record of reckless gambling formerly with other people’s money is now happening again this time gambling with other people’s lives.

            As far as Joe Biden. He’s served in government for 40 years. HIV, SARS, Ebola, MERS he has seen it all. This virus is not as novel for him. Biden would have had the good sense and humility to take a back seat to the medical professionals just like Obama and he did during their administration.
            There were never daily White House propaganda briefings during SARS. The medical professionals were allowed to do their job unfettered by the politicians.

          • Avatar
            LG   July 5, 2020 at 9:28 am

            Stop flights from Europe. Mandated domestic manufacture of PPE. Mandated PPE use by all essential workers (factories, transportation staff, food supply and service staff, healthcare and health service staff). Enforce CDC and public health recommendations with force of federal law. Eliminate political interference at CDC and other public health agencies. Federally mandate State opening schedules in accordance with CDC guidelines. Allow reopening ONLY when CDC guidelines for doing so have been met. Lead by example… not pontificate on twitter…

          • Avatar
            ANDREW   July 5, 2020 at 5:36 pm

            Easy to say “whatabout” Biden? But who is the president? Let’s see, we were warned by Navarro early in 2020. Trump called it a HOAX. Then he ignored the science saying it would go away in no time. A toothless travel ban as people still entered. Never mentioned (probably didn’t read it) the Executive Order for a National Response to a Pandemic outlining strategies-signed in 2012. On the weekend of March 7 he was so concerned that he played golf after partying at Mar A Lago! Then he touted hydroxychloroquine and ordered the US to buy 63 mm doses-monummental waste of taxpayer money. Of course the injection of disinfectant and putting a UV light in your lungs was another brainstorm… in between boasting of his success and blaming everyone else! Tweeting “Liberate” states to charge up his base; no unified modeling on maskwearing. Bloviating fool. No leadership, no plan, no strategy, no empathy. How’s that working out with 40 mm unemployed; 27tn national debt; $832 bn trade deficit; 23 mm w/o health insurance? When the king wears the crown, then the king takes the blame–Louis XVI got beheaded for his folly.

          • Avatar
            Nick   July 5, 2020 at 6:59 pm

            Love how gonzo didn’t come back here to comment on this

          • Avatar
            Sandra Bentley   July 7, 2020 at 6:29 am

            Where do I start Gonzo? Firstly he should have been brave and decisive in shutting down the country back in March/April. Second, made it clear in his daily ‘shows’ at the Whitehouse that testing and contact tracing are paramount and made sure each State had the supplies they needed back in April. Thirdly he needed to take advice from science, not wasted time and money on his dead beat theories about hychloroquine, now stockpiled and useless. Fourth, he could have worn a mask to show what a true leader does when there’s a highly contagious virus running rampant. Fifthly, he needed to take charge of this situation, be a leader, not a blamer in chief. I could go on and on, but bottom line is he ran away when we needed him most, he’s now left each state to clear up this mess. Left the country to fend for itself. He’s a disgrace and needs to go now.

          • Avatar
            Dick Nixon   July 8, 2020 at 11:57 pm

            What he should have done, and still can do to save lives is: take a long walk off of a short pier. OR, visit Dr. Kavorkian’s clinic. We would all be better off: even the tRump cultists and zombies that parrot his vile sociopathic lies.

          • Avatar
            Jim Bo   July 9, 2020 at 12:02 pm

            So how do you explain how all those socialist countries in the EU, 440,000,000 people, have new cases of about 4k a day and we are at 60,000? I frequently hear from trumpers that Biden or Clinton wouldn’t do any better. Really? Only those who wallow in trumps constant lies could come up with that theory. President Bush developed a pandemic response listed on the CDC website. It tells the government how to deal with a pandemic. Did trump use it? Nope. Obama had gone through Ebola and SARS and revised the playbook, also on the CDC website with even greater detail. Did trump use that? Nope. Like most things trump he just wings it. Now you’ll probably say he stopped the flights from China and he did which was helpful. But instead of using that time to build supplies and prepare the nation trump played golf. HE PLAYED GOLF! I bet earlier you were one of the people who said what a shitty job Obama did with SARS and his 12,000 deaths. But once our deaths crossed that line all the trumper dropped that argument. I’m sorry to break it to you but trump is an idiot, a dope, a moron and his FAILURE to lead has lead us to this. It’s only going to get much worse.

          • Avatar
            Terry L   July 11, 2020 at 11:36 am

            Wow, talk about fake news, this below:

            USA, UK and Sweden currently have 1.2-1.9 daily fatalities per 1m of population, while the stricter countries (Belgium, France, Germany etc.) are all below 0.3 daily fatalities per 1m (source: ourworldindata.com).

            Is this just a recent snapshot in time to help fit the narrative? The facts are these, and only Germany has less total deaths per million out of this grouping:

            US – 414/million
            Belgium – 844/million
            France – 460/million
            Germany – 109/million
            Sweden – 547/million

          • Avatar
            Kay   July 12, 2020 at 12:02 am

            Trump should:
            1. Listen to his medical and scientific advisors
            2. Have led a coordinated, prioritized nationwide response
            3. Supported and led every state Governor to prioritize ALL of the protective
            measures, immediately and all this time
            4. Led our nation’s people—ALL of us, not just the minority who believe he
            is terrific—by immediately in February, and every day since then,
            encouraging ALL Americans to understand the immensely dangerous,
            highly contagious, easily fatal reality of this virus and adopt ALL the
            recommended protective measures
            5. Worn and still be wearing a face mask himself, and practicing social dis-
            stancing in ALL his appearances, press conferences and political rallies
            6. Not assigned the temporary recalibration of urgently needed industries to
            HELP AMERICA, and ESPECIALLY ALL of our first responders, medical
            providers (who are risking their lived EVERY day to save the lives and
            families of selfish, ignorant morons who refuse to protect themselves,
            everyone they know, our medical workers, and America itself from this
            deadly virus) to his corrupt, mediocre NOT elected son-in-law (who
            immediately failed in the task
            7. STOPPED making division and enmity his total political and leadership
            strategy: ALL OTHER disaster time Presidents help EVERYONE in
            America, and collaborate with their political counter-parts in Congress
            during national catastrophes. Not Trump: he prefers self-serving hate.
            AMONG NUMEROUS OTHER SANE, CARING, COMPETENT THINGS TRUMP SHOULD HAVE DONE AND STILL BE DOING in his role as our President in response to the unimaginable disaster that IS Covid-19.

          • Avatar
            Chris   July 17, 2020 at 3:14 pm

            Max, you say the President is simply respecting States’ rights. This from the President who has sent Federal Marshals into Portland to arrest peaceful protesters – against the express wishes of the Mayor and Governor; re-allocated military funding for bases in Kentucky and other states to build his wall against the wishes of Governors and both the House and Senate (illegally as it turns out); who texted Liberate Michigan and spurred armed protests when that state’s governor took actions against the virus that he didn’t like. Yet this President could even get organized to buy medical equipment, leaving states to bid against each other driving prices through the roof, and allowing companies to ship supplies to China.
            There is no state’s rights principles here, just a completely random response to a problem that the President doesn’t have the mental will or ability to handle.

          • Avatar
            Randy Finch   July 19, 2020 at 5:00 am

            When it comes to COVID19 and leadership? Almost every world leader has been more accountable and transparent that the US executive. And? The numbers show that these other countries are doing better than the US. For example? Had he been in charge in January 2020? Joe Biden might have relied on the same experts that stopped Ebola from spreading in the US when he and Pres. Obama were in charge. There was no community spread in the US of Ebola back then. Why? Because the executive branch acted on the science – not their “instincts” or “very big brains”.

        • Avatar
          Joe   June 27, 2020 at 11:24 am

          Lloyd, 75 million people died last year…that’s 205K a day…that means all the covid deaths in all the countries combined for the past 6 months amounts to 2.5 days worth of deaths. Ask yourself why most media never puts this new source of deaths in it’s proper perspective? {fyi: Fear brings viewers back} Thank you to this website for FINALLY showing a timeline graph of deaths in FL showing the consistent daily decline in deaths since we allowed people to earn a living.

          Reply
          • Avatar
            Rick heffernan   June 29, 2020 at 9:47 pm

            75 million people died last year??? Thats 25% of our population. In 4 years we’ll all be dead

          • Avatar
            Liz   July 1, 2020 at 12:23 pm

            Proper perspective?

            In 2018 the deaths for both Influenza and Pneumonia together added up to 55,000 for the nation. We are at over 120,000 Covid19 deaths and we still have half a year to go. How is that for “proper perspective”?

          • Avatar
            James M   July 4, 2020 at 2:20 pm

            The timeline graph shows infections and hospitalizations and deaths are up since Florida began reopening. Are we looking at different graphs on this page?

          • Avatar
            Mike Deegan   July 11, 2020 at 12:16 pm

            Thanks Joe you nailed

        • Avatar
          danielson   June 28, 2020 at 12:49 pm

          Trump, blah blah blah. Trump is the one who actually acted quicker than anyone else would have while liberal tools were calling him a xenophobe. Let’s review everything Pelosi, Schumer and the libs said that was wrong like ‘head on down to China town etc.’ Your selective hearing is evident. I look at action and you don’t have anything on your side but mask shaming and a dichotomy over coverage. Orange Man bad always. Protests/Riots good. Rally bad.

          Reply
        • Avatar
          James   June 30, 2020 at 9:58 am

          Nice stats, if they were consistent, and the same as other diseases – they are not. It is bad, and will continue to be so, but the number of positive tested should be using metrics like “has symptoms” that other countries use, plus two tests. Asymptomatic ( no symptoms) is ½+ of all reported positives. In other counties not a “case” like in USA. Deaths with multiple issues here are just COVID deaths, not in other countries.

          Reply
        • Avatar
          Pate   June 30, 2020 at 7:12 pm

          Lloyd, stop smoking whatever it is you are smoking. The libtards predicted 1 to 2 MILLION DEAD! All to spin up minions like you. And you prove it worked!

          Reply
        • Avatar
          Nancy Stacy   July 2, 2020 at 7:32 am

          I lived through Hong Kong flu in 1968/69. More people were killed per capita from that. We had 200 million people then with 100,000 American deaths so compared to today’s 320 million people that is more deaths per capita than with Covid. Children also died from Hong Kong yet in Fl not a single child under 18 has died from this one. However from Oct 2019 to March 2020 10 children HAVE died from influenza in Fl right off the state health dept numbers. Also 2 high school seniors have died from lightening strikes. So in Fl children have a 200% larger chance of being killed by lightening than Covid! So now we shut down outside school playgrounds?? Also in Fl teens have a 30,000% higher Hanse if dying in a car accident based upon the numbers of those killed directly off the state website so we ban cars?? btw this virus started exactly where this virus started in China. Same city! FACT: The more people a day get this the closer to herd immunity which is the only fix outside effective immunization!

          Reply
          • Avatar
            Claire Z   July 3, 2020 at 1:41 pm

            The biggest problem with counting on “herd immunity” is that no one knows if having COVID-19 guarantees anyone immunity for life. In some tests, the “immunity” (i.e., antibodies) disappears in just a few months, meaning the person can be reinfected. I’m not sure herd immunity is a solution we can count on.

        • Avatar
          Charles Tuten   July 2, 2020 at 11:31 am

          Chill Lloyd, The President is going to do what needs to be done to HELP ALL Americans. Do you honestly think that a democrat currently available would do better? Yeah Right. sad.

          Reply
      • Avatar
        Ann   June 26, 2020 at 8:41 am

        So sad that facts in your face are not enough to alter your ignorant views. I picture you facing a corner with a tin foil dunce cap firmly seated on your head.

        Reply
        • Avatar
          Gonzo   June 27, 2020 at 11:06 am

          Isn’t it interesting that this very detailed story doesn’t mention the age of the victims, nor does it mention co-morbidities. I wonder why?

          Reply
          • Avatar
            Patrice   June 27, 2020 at 3:32 pm

            Every case and death is listed individually on the website below. The vast majority of the new cases are young less than 35. The vast majority of deaths are in the older population. This is probably why we haven’t seen a spike in new hospitalizations so far.

            http://ww11.doh.state.fl.us/comm/_partners/action/report_archive/state/state_reports_latest.pdf

          • Avatar
            dee herr   July 7, 2020 at 7:09 pm

            Patrice tried to go to that site and it is a bad link now. Do you have any other link for that data? I was bummed that the link did not work now. 🙁

        • Avatar
          Brian   June 29, 2020 at 12:20 pm

          Name calling and no facts on your end. Nice job, Ann. Go away.

          Reply
      • Avatar
        landy   June 26, 2020 at 12:34 pm

        Also, as it has been pointed out antigen test are now included in the positive results we are getting now. So this might only seem like a spike as the death average has remained within a 10 point average even through lock down. They are giving antigen test for free with blood donations. We are getting our antigen test done this week just to know. We had a bug in January so…that being said many are getting antigen tests now and it is going to create a spike in the positive results.I think significantly unfortunately, people won’t understand what it means.

        Reply
        • Avatar
          doug moore   June 26, 2020 at 1:56 pm

          Landy,
          the blood donation test only valid if you had it within 60 days.
          but yes the antibody test they add you today as if you are infected today because they don’t know when you had it. ALSO ppl are not taken off as cured so they make it like there are 50X times that have it but the numbers are really much lower in real time.
          deaths are overreported.
          increase in cases are because we are actively testing now more then before.

          WHAT THEY SHOULD HAVE DONE is health dept told everyone to keep their vitamin D levels up to normal. BEST advice given.

          Reply
        • Avatar
          Michael   July 2, 2020 at 1:26 pm

          According to FLDOH, antibody results are reported separately and are reported once a week.. They are not part of the nearly 10k cases reported today.

          Reply
        • Avatar
          LG   July 5, 2020 at 9:39 am

          Antibody serology tests are intended for use by epidemiologists doing statistical studies of how the virus travels through large populations. They are fundamentally useless as a measure of actual infection of individuals. They are highly inaccurate with both positive and negative errors. If you’re paying for an antigen test, save your money. If you’re worried about being infected. Get a standard test.

          Reply
      • Avatar
        ed   June 26, 2020 at 6:51 pm

        I assume you mean “mass hysteria”? Actually the zip code map is pretty useful for seeing where the cases are. Glades had a huge outbreak; not exactly party central.

        Reply
      • Avatar
        james rapp   June 26, 2020 at 11:16 pm

        They add the positive tests for antigens…. and they add multiple confirmation tests where as many as three are required. The stats are manufactured. That said it was stupid to open bars…..

        Reply
      • Avatar
        patrick   June 28, 2020 at 8:08 am

        wow
        that comment is truly amazing.
        in an attempt to be civil, i erased my original post.
        i’ll now try again
        1: the virus didn’t start in the US
        2: the response to the virus didn’t start in the US
        3:quarantines, lockdowns and mask wearing was , and is undeniably the best way to contain the virus
        all this is fact before you even had an opinion on this matter
        obviously ,the global response to covid 19 is not a left wing, liberal american
        plot to control the narrative. the only hand the US had in this pandemic was to greatly increase the spread of the virus.
        My point is
        how can any ressonable person believe that all of the hospital, universities, health officials and media, in the world be wrong, and biased,in favor of the left wing in the united states??
        think about that please don’t confuse facts and documentation with political bias

        Reply
        • Avatar
          Adam   July 1, 2020 at 11:02 am

          We have had Flu vaccines for many years. How many die from the flu every year?

          New York and Florida have comparable population numbers. NY locked down right away, and still hasn’t opened up. Let’s compare the numbers:

          NY:
          Population: 19.5 mil
          Confirmed
          398K
          Deaths
          31,776
          Deaths per million: 165

          Florida:
          Population: 21.5 mil
          Confirmed
          152K
          Deaths
          3,504
          Deaths per million: 16

          Reply
          • Avatar
            Alison   July 3, 2020 at 12:49 pm

            They may have comparable populations but you can’t equally compare the environments. Have you ever been to NYC? The density and the high subway usage is incomparable to any other city in the U.S. Also, most European flights went through NYC airports so the virus was spreading long before lockdown. So, you are missing a wealth of information if you simply compare population numbers. Community spread is going to take longer in Florida than in NYC.

        • Avatar
          LG   July 5, 2020 at 9:44 am

          I agree. Good on you for being civil. It is really hard to read some of these comments.

          Reply
        • Avatar
          Diane   August 4, 2020 at 12:00 pm

          Thank God there are still some people with common sense, including you. Quarantines and lockdowns at the beginning saved countless lives. This bought the medical and scientific community time to get some effective treatments figured out, acquire proper PPE, and do the other things that needed to be done to increase capacity at medical facilities. It also gave manufacturers time to produce masks for the general populace. Countless more lives could have been saved if a greater percentage of the population observed proper social distancing, indoors and outdoors AND wore masks. This is not political, just reading and understanding the science behind how the Covid-19 spreads.

          Reply
      • Avatar
        Dan Honnick   June 28, 2020 at 10:38 am

        Hi John,

        Showing data by county gives us a more accurate account of where the virus is most active.

        The bar graphs referenced in this article do not show that information.

        Certainly, we could show data by county bar graphs.

        Dan H.
        Bethesda, MD

        Reply
        • Avatar
          Owen   July 2, 2020 at 12:56 am

          That was an admirably restrained and intelligent response Dan. Pretty sure such a response is lost on John.

          Reply
      • Avatar
        Patrick   June 29, 2020 at 10:41 am

        The majority of these posts proves on thing. The United States are no longer the United States. Making a new virus that’s killed 500,000 people a political messaging tool is incomprehensible. There are the Obama haters & never trumpers. The hate from both directions on top of ignorance is what’s going to kill us, not COVID 19. The US has 4% of World Population & 25% of deaths. The US spends 5 times any nation of health care. What’s wrong in the picture? Too many with hate in their hearts & sand in their ears.

        Reply
      • Avatar
        shannon   June 30, 2020 at 5:49 pm

        revelations says “for by thy sorceries were all nations deceived”…. in greek and hebrew sorceries is pharmakia the root word for pharmacy… I fear a spell has been cast on the earth and we have fallen for it, because we know not the truth. It is sad, but there is hope in Jesus, if you have belief in your heart that he is who he says he is and you confess with your mouth that he is Lord. peace

        Reply
      • Avatar
        Greg   June 30, 2020 at 7:09 pm

        You nailed it John

        Reply
      • Avatar
        Patsy   June 30, 2020 at 7:24 pm

        John,
        You are sadly misinformed probably to comport with your radical trumpain views. Johns Hopkins is a bastion of science and research. Don’t blame the messenger because you don’t like it’s well-informed statistics.

        Reply
        • Avatar
          Owen   July 2, 2020 at 12:47 am

          Well said Patsy. Some people, for obvious political reasons, just don’t trust legitimate, factual statistics.

          Reply
        • Avatar
          Kelli Turner   July 2, 2020 at 4:37 pm

          You know who doesn’t care about Trump or Biden?
          – A? virus.

          Reply
      • Avatar
        Maggie   June 30, 2020 at 9:08 pm

        Completely agree!
        Very intelligent!

        Reply
        • Avatar
          Owen   July 2, 2020 at 12:45 am

          Hahahaha. I like your sarcasm Maggie.

          Reply
      • Avatar
        Ana   July 1, 2020 at 9:01 am

        Agreed!

        Reply
      • Avatar
        Owen   July 2, 2020 at 12:43 am

        Can you explain how color coding amounts to “propaganda” or “disinformation” without sounding like a raving lunatic? No? Didn’t think so.

        Reply
        • Avatar
          Nick   July 5, 2020 at 7:02 pm

          you could selectively display a very small section of data to misrepresent it. but here we don’t have that problem, if you can’t see that hospitalizations are going up directly with our amount of cases then you’d only be in denial if you disagreed this was a bad situation

          Reply
      • Avatar
        Shanna   July 2, 2020 at 1:46 pm

        Why jump on the bandwagon of politicizing a stupid disease? Stop paying taxes if you really mean it, you obsiously think this country is a big joke and no one deserve to be here except a few nutjobs who want everyone to bow to them. If this country is nothing but a joke to you, and health care professionals and all our institutions are a waste of your time, all the Trumpers time, why are you still here in America? Where are your contributions to our country other than your racist, ignorant bullst? People are dying, getting sick, we can deal with it, but not like this. If you think it’s all a joke and you just don’t care… what do you really get out of it, anyways? All you Trumpers? He hates all of us, you give him nothing but a means to rake this country over the coals and divide it up to his buddies – which include some bad dictators. This country used to be great. Thanks to Trump Nation, it’s a fkn joke with a bunch of racists and bigots thinking they are going to be the next Nazi superpowers. Good luck with Covid, you may not believe in science/ Darwin, but Darwinism believes in you. Bye in Nov 2020

        Reply
        • Avatar
          Kaypac   July 4, 2020 at 1:54 pm

          Well said, Bryan.

          Reply
      • Avatar
        Gregory   July 2, 2020 at 11:24 pm

        Off your meds again?

        Reply
        • Avatar
          Claire Z   July 3, 2020 at 3:48 pm

          Good one, Gregory. 🙂

          Reply
      • Avatar
        Mark A McDowell   July 3, 2020 at 7:10 pm

        I truly believ e what you are saying John! This BULLSHIT has to stop! I. don’t understand how just 8 days ago the death rate had Gone down Significantly with the spiking of positive test! & now NO One can give me. Answer when I asked why the death rate still. Stay down! No one!

        Reply
      • Avatar
        Bob   July 4, 2020 at 12:45 pm

        Being able to analyze data from a chart is a skill that few people have.
        MD’s can read these charts and learn a lot from them.

        Apparently John can’t understand them and he assumes everyone else is the same.
        …………….NOT !!

        Reply
      • Avatar
        Barb D   July 5, 2020 at 2:48 pm

        You need to crawl back under your rock and pit tour tin foil hat back on. You are putting your neighbors in danger. Stop the dissemination of conspiracie and propaganda.

        Reply
      • Avatar
        Danny Rogers   July 6, 2020 at 7:19 am

        You are on point sir. I am putting together a group for a class action against the perpetrators of this treasonous act.

        Reply
      • Avatar
        Norm Dill   July 6, 2020 at 2:26 pm

        There is nothing wrong with color coded maps IF, they show the right info. Anything to do with total number of cases or even total number of new cases for a county is almost useless. Everything should be in cases, hospitalizations, deaths per capita. It’s the only way you can compare anything with any remote sense of reality.

        Reply
      • Avatar
        Dennis VanVeen   July 14, 2020 at 8:43 am

        Well Said!

        Reply
      • Avatar
        Ben   July 18, 2020 at 4:21 pm

        John, if you were trying to communicate information to people with a high school education, do you have a better way of displaying it? Would you err on the side of caution, or minimizing the fact that we’ve over 140,000 Americans have died from Covid-19? How is Fox News displaying it? How is Sean Hannity helping his viewers see the Johns Hopkin’s propaganda? There is certainly a “very dangerous sociopath” spreading “propaganda is far superior than any ever seen In the history of Earth”, but he isn’t a Democrat… Have you been to the gym and then a bar without a mask lately?

        Reply
      • Avatar
        Dan   August 4, 2020 at 8:50 pm

        John: If you had the vaguest idea of what you’re talking about, you would know there is no such place as “John Hopkins University”.

        That must be the reason that you include no facts whatsoever in your post, just adjectives.

        That’s what’s called propaganda.

        Reply
    • Avatar
      David   June 25, 2020 at 10:44 am

      If you go to the Weather Underground website and go to the map. there’s a button on the left just above the + & – that looks like the coronavirus clock on the and you will see the map changes and shows county by county..

      Reply
    • Avatar
      curious   June 27, 2020 at 7:01 am

      The Covid Jury is still out and it does not appear there will be a coviction. Interesting that I was notified via Scott Adams retweet of Justin Hart’s twitter post yesterday
      “Here. I made this REALLY simple. The increase in cases you see across the country is NOT something to freak out about. In Florida, the average age of confirmed cases has dropped by nearly 20 years! This means #COVID19 has to work 5x harder to kill the folks currently infected.”

      I agree with John’s criticism of my post 2 1/2 months ago and with Ellen’s. I don’t agree with Lloyd or Ann
      I agree with landy & Doug Moore.
      I have no opinion on James Rapp or David but 2 & 1/2 months after my initial post I would say ‘Experts [medical] are useless in a crisis’
      NY politicians are right for NY, FL are right for me. I live in a reasonable state but in an unreasonable community – but that’s been my choice.

      Reply
    • Avatar
      Jane   July 9, 2020 at 10:30 am

      These charts don’t follow the numbers in the FL Covid dashboard which shows a significant drop in fatalities. Where are these numbers coming from?

      Reply
    • Avatar
      William   July 25, 2020 at 12:18 pm

      How are we supposed to believe the numbers when motorcycle accident and gun shot wounds to the head show up as a covid death?

      Reply
  2. Avatar
    CHARLES WILLIAMS SR   April 12, 2020 at 10:11 pm

    Worth watching, but Florida is most likely just entering the uprise of the “Confirmed Cases” and “Deaths” curves over this weekend. According to the U of Washington predictive graphs Florida will be escalating over the next 2 weeks until peaking around April 23. Of course, all is subject to change, influenced by the Passover and Easter Weekend events, and any nonessential return to work over the rest of the month. My thoughts.

    Reply
    • Avatar
      Chet Ritchie   May 15, 2020 at 6:12 pm

      Dude, the U of Wash has been totally wrong since day 1!

      Reply
    • Avatar
      Tom Thompson   May 25, 2020 at 7:59 am

      I would like to see someone be honest and tell us that there is no possible way to predict with a model because models are built on previous factual data and we have no data on social distancing effects, increased washing hands, mask wearing even at 50%, hand sanitizer use, working from home, etc. etc. It has never been done before….

      Reply
      • Avatar
        Joyce   May 28, 2020 at 2:01 pm

        It’s refreshing to see comments from informed people like you Tom. Where is the science? Decisions should be made based on facts not guesses. Shutting down an entire country was a very bad decision.

        Reply
        • Avatar
          bob bear   May 30, 2020 at 3:46 pm

          Closing to late was mistake #1, and reopening to early is mistake #2, so expect infections and deaths to continue to climb!

          Reply
          • Avatar
            Pat Swicicki   June 12, 2020 at 2:45 pm

            I hate to burst your bubble but there has been a significant increase in the number of people being tested which will always show more people testing positive. Disproportionately, the number of Covid hospitalizations and deaths remain low.

          • Avatar
            M Schuck   June 14, 2020 at 8:12 am

            Mistake #1 getting your quips from the marxist anti-trump main stream media.

          • Avatar
            ltb   June 17, 2020 at 2:28 pm

            TOO

      • Avatar
        David Marolda   June 19, 2020 at 9:43 am

        Economic disaster and social isolation also kills people for a variety of reasons from untreated conditions to drug and alcohol abuse. I don’t here much of that from the press but it is a fact. If I still had my actuarial team I would likely already have done a projection of that (tentative projections as we don’t have enough data just like the people who over projected the results of the virus. Not a knock on them as they are in a pickle with not much data to go on.)

        Reply
        • Avatar
          Marvin   June 28, 2020 at 11:37 am

          Agreed.

          The lock-down will take its toll in lives , not just dollars.

          1. Surgery postponed because hospitals have become Co-Vid centers
          2. Cancer screenings post-poned because of fear of catching Co-Vid
          3. Suicides related to isolation, fear of the uncertainty.
          4. Suicides due to unemployment

          Reply
      • Avatar
        Caroline   June 24, 2020 at 2:36 pm

        Cell phone tracking does provide reliable information on social distancing.

        Reply
    • Avatar
      tavo   June 13, 2020 at 9:58 am

      the positive tests include antigen, so the positive tests could be from November. the 10 days after memorial are the highest number of tests we did per day. really have to go by deaths for “more” accurate data. I don’t know if hospitalizations include overnight admittance for a elective surgery of patients who happen to test positive for an antigen test, I wouldn’t put it passed them..

      Reply
      • Avatar
        james rapp   June 14, 2020 at 7:34 pm

        Great insight…. That explains a lot.

        Reply
      • Avatar
        Marilyn   June 16, 2020 at 3:18 pm

        How do you know that the positive tests include antigen testing?

        Interested to find out your source on that fact.

        Reply
        • Avatar
          David Marolda   June 19, 2020 at 9:51 am

          The best data to look at to track the progress of the pandemic is the seven day moving average of new Covid hospital admissions. Number of cases will always be a gross overstatement as long as we are testing more and more people (these count not only actual new cases but also cases that are merely newly discovered cases that we did not previously know about. Not a political opinion…. I did this stuff for a living.

          Reply
          • Avatar
            peter   June 23, 2020 at 5:07 pm

            David,

            I agree with you….I expect the number of cases by this time next year to top 60 million here in the states. Ten years ago, the swine flu hit and in one year 1 out of 6 Americans tested positive.
            I would expect the same rate of cases for Covid.

            Is it correct to see the new cases spike, while the hospitalization and mortality rates as compared to overall cases trend lower? Will the mortality rate trend down to 3-4 times that of a bad influenza breakout? Inquiring minds!

      • Avatar
        Lane   June 26, 2020 at 12:18 pm

        Being that the death rate remained somewhat relative even through lock down. This makes sense. Free antigen test are being given when donating blood. We are going next week. Feel like we might have had this in January.

        Reply
    • Avatar
      Lee   June 15, 2020 at 5:37 am

      I love how people continue to look at predictions rather than look at actual numbers and statistics. Here’s an update: ALL THE PRRDICTIONS HAVE BEEN WRONG!!

      Reply
      • Avatar
        Lisa VanLew   June 27, 2020 at 11:12 am

        I agree Lee and more to the point everyone is forgetting this pesky little point and that is for every positive test hospitals and or doctors get $3300 in their pockets. Any time money is involved there is fraud and lies. My doctor friend told me not to bother with getting tested because he said there were a lot of false positives. So I say no more stages open up the country. Stay home if you want . Wear a mask if you want but, stop the bullshit. Nothing they have done (and buy the way we pay all these peoples salaries that have NOT missed a pay check while the rest of us sit at home) makes sense. Ask yourself what is the difference between shopping at say Walmart or a small boutique? Absolutely nothing in fact you would be safer in my opinion shopping at a smaller store. While big companies stay open smaller ones are now ruined. Open up the freaking country you bunch of losers. This should have never happened. I personally am tired of the lies and if you are watching CNN or any other company affiliated with them you are getting NOTHING but lies. For goodness sakes people fact check. The man that owns CNN owns 70% of the news outlets. Not good. Anyways I wish health and happiness to all and let’s make America Great Once Again…

        Reply
        • Avatar
          James H Fowler   July 14, 2020 at 7:50 pm

          CNN is owned by Time Warner, not a person. You must be thinking of Fox who is mostly owned by Robert Murdock and his family. The Murdocks are the media moguls.

          Reply
      • Avatar
        L Racine   June 28, 2020 at 8:39 am

        “PRRDICTIONS ” (sic) are based on computer models. Models are designed NOT to predict the future and give you “exact” numbers, but to give you a feel for the sensitivities to the INPUT variables. For example, if you let the virus rage what will be the death toll, versus what the death toll will be if you have the population use face mask and social distancing. Does the death rate drop? Is it STATICALLY significant?

        As the old saying goes… “You can’t fix stupid.” and per John Wayne, “IF you are going to be stupid you had better be tough.”

        Reply
  3. Avatar
    James   April 13, 2020 at 7:09 am

    Time to go back to work, school and play. This is way overblown.

    Reply
    • Avatar
      LB   April 13, 2020 at 10:09 am

      Seriously? You’re willing to gamble when the risk is life or death? Do us all a favor and make sure you are clearly marked so we can avoid you.

      Reply
      • Avatar
        Donna Thompson   April 16, 2020 at 10:32 pm

        Happy to, so long as our family and our employees can earn a living, keep our business afloat, and pay our bills. I’ll wear a shiny gold star, like the Jews did in Nazi Germany.

        Reply
        • Avatar
          Gene   April 22, 2020 at 3:59 pm

          every time I hear such simplistic arguments aided by emotionally inflammatory rhetoric, I feel that every American should be required to take a Logic course during K-12 so you’d know how weak and bogus your conclusions are. I know they seem logical to you because you do not know how to differentiate. But to me I always feel I’m at a bar at 2 AM listening to all the drunks solving the world’s problems or back in High School where the nerds were shunned and disregarded as the rest grew up to be the ones that shun elites and disregard science cause it makes them feel better about themselves and their cognitive abilities.

          Perhaps instead of the gold star you could wear your IQ score or level of schooling.

          Reply
          • Avatar
            Greg   May 6, 2020 at 3:28 pm

            Does that logic course include liberals or only liberal logic? LiberalismIsAMentalDisorder

          • Avatar
            bobs   May 19, 2020 at 8:30 am

            As a liberal dem I respectfully want to say that your attack on this person doesn’t represent me . There are people who are figuratively and literally being killed by this lockdown.

            If you have the means to stay home and want to then we respect that. But please don’t attack others who can’t. They are not the enemy

          • Avatar
            William Wilkinson   May 23, 2020 at 6:56 pm

            Your attack and OBVIOUS bias against those that do not carry your “fear” of not being led by the nose through the trials and tribulations of adulthood make your entire opinion worthless. Your IQ level is most likely in the 85-95 point range, so attacking others for something they are not in control of shows you an uncouth and reprehensible human being. The thought process behind such uncalled for attacks are the same mindless attacks we witnessed from the ANTIFA crowd. If you want to cower behing mommy’s skirt, feel free to do so. Others are well aware that life itself consists of many risks – some more overt than others – but are willing to live life without the hand-holding of the government nannies that you and your ilk seem to find so necessary…

          • Avatar
            Josh   June 14, 2020 at 10:06 am

            Gene, it appears that you like throwing around big words to aid your inflammatory tirade to try make yourself feel better about your self professed superior opinion while offering nothing substantial or constructive to the conversation.

            You’re stroking your own ego and simultaneously using name calling to try and make you and your argument sound more important than they actually are.

            The entirety of your response was a diatribe and everyone is dumber for having listened to it.

          • Avatar
            David Marolda   June 19, 2020 at 10:01 am

            Rather condescending. The lock downs are killing people too and ruining others. Skip the condescending reply. I made my living as a health insurance actuary/forecasting/strategic planning guy for decades (translation a job for really smart people who, among other things, do projections and analysis of health care data every day). Deaths are up for every thing from cancer (delayed treatment) to suicides. Look it up.

        • Avatar
          KS   May 5, 2020 at 5:45 pm

          EXACTLY!!! ??

          Reply
        • Avatar
          JAC   May 25, 2020 at 3:56 pm

          It’s people like you for which Darwinism reigns.
          Easy on the illogical, ignorant and racist analogies.

          Reply
          • Avatar
            David Marolda   June 19, 2020 at 10:20 am

            what are you talking about

        • Avatar
          Jason Cooper   May 25, 2020 at 4:00 pm

          Donna, easy on the ignorant, illogical and racist analogies.

          Reply
        • Avatar
          Robert Heinlein   June 2, 2020 at 10:45 am

          Donna, some of the Jews had gold badges, some had different colors. Everywhere they conquered they forced identification.

          Once isolated they were obvious targets.

          Then the Jews were tattooed with bar codes and led to slaughter. So were the gypsies, homosexuals, and anyone else they had questions about.

          Meanwhile, the Soviets murdered tens of millions of people, we “lost” a lot of POW’s, and stole all of the Japanese assets and tossed them into concentration camps. And firebombed population centers. Japan is of course famous for the rape of Nanking. Italy used flamethrower tanks against African soldiers armed with spears.

          I could go on. Bottom line, it was horrific, and I think you should know and say a little more specifically.

          I don’t mean to flame or bash etc. It’s just that when we distort the past, we forget the lessons that could have been learned.

          And the 40+ million people’s story gets further and further back in time.

          Facts are important. Please try in the future to be a little cleaner.

          Reply
        • Avatar
          Diane   June 3, 2020 at 9:49 am

          You are disgusting! Shame on you!!

          Reply
      • Avatar
        james   April 17, 2020 at 11:02 am

        Go hide in your closet. This is a fraud and will be proven so whether you want to believe it or not.

        Mortality rate will end up being the same as the swine flu one tenth of one percent.

        Grow up

        Reply
        • Avatar
          RN   April 28, 2020 at 7:15 pm

          How do you account for 58,906 people dying in two months WITH most of the country shut down? That would be 352,000 deaths if nothing changes. So what would happen without this shutdown? When have they had to build overflow hospitals in the US? When has Italy just let people die because they do not have enough beds, nurses and doctors, vents…that did not happen with the swine flu. Running out of PPE? This did not happen with swine flu in 2009, not even close. No one was told to wear a bandana as a mask all day in my 30 years of nursing.

          I agree it does not have an average 3% mortality as now is apparent both because we have not overwhelmed health care so we have enough to take care of folks unlike Spain and Italy. Not sure what it will end up being but this is MUCH more serious that swine flu and certainly more serious than the regular flu.

          Reply
          • Avatar
            mck   June 12, 2020 at 4:57 pm

            Just to make a small correction about Italy. The reports that they were letting people die because they didn’t have enough beds was related to a situation in one small hospital in a small town in the primary outbreak area. They have had this happen with bad influenza years as well. Additionally, if you look at Italy, the vast majority of the country experienced roughly the same number of hospitalizations as they normally do. Interestingly, the area that had the longest lasting outbreak was the first area to lockdown 10 days before the rest of the country did, and that is raising many questions. All of this information is directly available on the Italian Ministry of Health’s website, where you can see a daily breakdown by each province in Italy of new cases, new hospitalizations, ICU admissions, deaths, secondary tests total, positive and negative, as well as the number of people that were marked as “recovered” after 2 negative tests in a 48 hour timespan. The amount of data they have released is significantly more than we are seeing in the U.S. Furthermore, Italy came out of lockdown six weeks ago, they are not wearing face masks, and are only doing limited social distancing, yet their hospitalizations and critical cases have been plummeting to the extent that there are very few active cases remaining.

          • Avatar
            David Marolda   June 19, 2020 at 10:31 am

            No one actually knows how many people would die but for the lockdowns. The models don’t have enough meaningful data (to new) to be accurate (even when lock downs and social distancing were factored in). They have been overstated from square one. I have sympathy for the forecasters however. I have been tasked at various points in the past to do projections of new healthcare programs and health insurance products. It is not for the faint of heart.

            We do know that continued lockdowns are causing deaths as well as the actual Covid deaths. The lock downs prevented the health care system from bing overwhelmed. Continuing them will kill people too.

          • Avatar
            Jan   June 26, 2020 at 9:17 am

            Go ask Cuomo why he made a conscious decision to send infected people back into nursing homes? There is no other reasonable explanation other than to drive up the death rate. In New Hampshire, Bernie’s home state and in Minnesota, 80% of the covid deaths were in nursing homes. This mass murder was inflicted on the elderly to create mass hysteria for one purpose only; for political gain. This shows how far the liberals are willing to go in an election year. It is time to wake up, open your eyes and take responsibility for your own decisions and life. No one is forcing you to go to work, to the gym or for a haircut. I worked hard to earn a great education and paid for it all myself while raising a family as a single mother. I was not privileged and Had no government handouts. Because of that, I was able to continue going to work through the entire pandemic. Wearing a mask, washing my hands and social
            Distancing has kept me covid free. It is time for our liberal political leaders to stop the fear mongering and lock downs that are Destroying low income families. If you have a family member who is at risk, you can social distance. Don’t try to shame me if I am not cowering in my basement like some people we know when I am behaving very responsibly, not putting anyone at risk.

        • Avatar
          M Arnold   May 14, 2020 at 1:06 pm

          Hmmmm 12,500 deaths in the US in a year from swine flu compared to over 80,000 deaths since March. Yeah that’s a really good comparison there.

          Reply
        • Avatar
          George Fergusson   May 22, 2020 at 11:11 am

          One half of one percent of the two hundred million infected required to achieve “Herd Immunity” equals one million deaths plus millions of survivors with permanently scarred lungs. You may be among the fortunate 75% who display no symptoms, but you may spread death and disability anyway.

          Reply
          • Avatar
            David Marolda   June 19, 2020 at 10:33 am

            No one actually knows how many people would die but for the lockdowns. The models don’t have enough meaningful data (to new) to be accurate (even when lock downs and social distancing were factored in). They have been overstated from square one. I have sympathy for the forecasters however. I have been tasked at various points in the past to do projections of new healthcare programs and health insurance products. It is not for the faint of heart.

            We do know that continued lockdowns are causing deaths as well as the actual Covid deaths. The lock downs prevented the health care system from bing overwhelmed. Continuing them will kill people too.

        • Avatar
          bob bear   May 30, 2020 at 3:49 pm

          the one needing to grow up is you, over 100,00 dead Americans is not a fraud, those who ignore this virus are only making it worse for those who are responsible!

          Reply
        • Avatar
          Neurotech   June 14, 2020 at 12:03 pm

          So you think that the hospitals murdered people as part of a conspiracy? That they used all their ventilators on people that didn’t need them and that they put innocent people in comas? That the trailers full of corpses with nowhere else to put them is part of a hoax? That my neighbors who are gone are not really dead? I never met anyone who was hospitalized from the flu much less intubated, but now I know many who were and some who died.

          Reply
      • Avatar
        Jessica   April 25, 2020 at 11:19 am

        The risk is always life or death everyday. You can die walking across the street.

        Less than 2% of the global population has been infected with Covid19.

        Of the 2% over 80% have a mild case with favorable outcomes.
        Of the 2% only 20% have severe cases needing hospital care.
        The death rate is still being calculated but it is less than 10% of the global 2%.

        2019 Flu killed over 80,000 people the economy did not shut down.

        This is more political than a risk to the general population.

        At this point people who don’t known what to do to protect themselves are a perfect example of Darwin’s survival of the fittest.

        Reply
        • Avatar
          Kathleen   April 26, 2020 at 11:37 am

          You data is not accurate. The flu deaths are globally and for 1 year. Compare that to Corona deaths of more than 200,000 in a 7-week period. This is a serious virus that doesn’t just kill old people.

          Reply
          • Avatar
            BCush   April 30, 2020 at 12:37 pm

            Not correct. According to who, the global death rate for the flu is much higher than 80K. “The World Health Organization estimates that worldwide, annual influenza epidemics result in about 3-5 million cases of severe illness and about 250,000 to 500,000 deaths. [21] In the United States, individual cases of seasonal flu and flu-related deaths in adults are not reportable illnesses; consequently, mortality is estimated by using statistical models. [1]” Also, in 98% of the deaths from corona virus, the deceased had an underlying condition.

        • Avatar
          Stacey   May 9, 2020 at 7:56 am

          Spot on!!!! Jessica

          Reply
          • Avatar
            Searfarer   May 10, 2020 at 9:46 am

            Agree. This wasn’t worth shutting down whole economy and ruining many businesses. Some will never come back.

        • Avatar
          JAC   May 25, 2020 at 4:10 pm

          Jessica, actually there were approximately 34,000 deaths due to the 2018-2019 flu season.

          Reply
        • Avatar
          bob bear   May 30, 2020 at 3:52 pm

          this virus has only begum and you talk like its over!
          When its over far too many would have died needlessly because of stupid decisions by those in power who chose money over life!

          Reply
        • Avatar
          Perry   June 9, 2020 at 1:55 pm

          Over 100,000 died so far and the economy DID shut down (imagine the number dead if it didn’t)
          Your point?

          Reply
          • Avatar
            BB   June 28, 2020 at 1:44 am

            You do know that over 40% of these deaths were in nursing homes, right? Imagine if the stupid governors and mayors hadn’t forced facilities to keep infected people they had no ability to properly treat what the difference would be.

      • Avatar
        Lynn   May 11, 2020 at 9:55 am

        Stay home and you won’t have to worry about catching Coronavirus. Let the people that want to work go about their business.

        Reply
        • Avatar
          George Benitez   May 11, 2020 at 1:57 pm

          Lynn, you must have a nice amount of money to think this way! Some of us, have to work or we cannot survive! So, you stay home and cower!

          Reply
          • Avatar
            Stephen P. Rothman   May 12, 2020 at 11:56 am

            Well, that’s where the government should have stepped in to help the waiters and the hairdressers, etc. And it should be paid for with higher taxes on the top 1%, who have absurd amounts of money. Why should anyone really have over a billion dollars? Are they that much more important than the others? No, our system is just broken. The government did try to step in to increase unemployment compensation and the PPP small business loans, but the implementation was poor. They increased unemployment compensation but administered through the state unemployment offices. If you work in a state unemployment office (a) you are used to having less than 1/10 of the cases that are coming in now, and (b) the mindset in which you have been trained is that people are lazy and you should deny benefits whenever possible. The government guaranteed loans were funneled through banks, who tend to take care of their largest customers first. We needed a strong federal response to the twin crises, economic and health; as strong as the New Deal was as a response the the 1929 market crash and great depression; and as strong as the response of the U.S. was in WWII, when just a stunning volume of aircraft carriers, planes, tanks and weapons were produced in a short time that required strong leadership and some sacrifice from everyone. We needed Franklin Delano Roosevelt. What did we get? a so-so real estate investor turned reality TV star. We should pass a new constitutional amendment that nobody associated with reality TV can again ever be elected President of this once great country. TV is all about entertaining drama that doesn’t produce any benefit to society. We need substance, not show. Trump said he’d make America great again. Instead he made us the laughing stock of the world. And let a lot of people become impoverished, unemployed or dead just because of his focus on his image and wealth rather than the awesome responsibility of the President of the United States.

          • Avatar
            BJ   June 12, 2020 at 10:46 am

            like Stephen, a real communist/socialist. You got it, I want it, give it to me because he has declared you have too much. Just remember, the major liberals running this land through Google, Apple, etc. are Billionaires many times over and hate on Trump, who CNN would fat check on whether he had $4Billion or $9Billion. just priceless. Move to China and submit Stephen.

        • Avatar
          David Marolda   June 19, 2020 at 10:44 am

          Staying home, if you can is the most logical thing to do. Those that can’t need to go back to work if they are not part of the most vulnerable populations (who may need some financial help if they are not already retired). The lockdowns did prevent the system from being overloaded but they should have ended by Memorial day.

          Reply
      • Avatar
        lee   May 14, 2020 at 4:54 pm

        How about you just wear your mask and cower in the corner and the rest of us can get back to work and pay our bills and support our families. This whole situation wasn’t so you wouldn’t catch it, it was so we wouldn’t serve in the hospital. We’re past that now. This is a virus and we have to learn to live with it, it’s not just going to go away because you wear a mask and wash your hands. If you’re afraid of dying stay home.

        Reply
        • Avatar
          Chris   May 17, 2020 at 6:25 pm

          I was wondering where the hell are all the idiots I’m hearing about who have their heads in the sand. Found them!!! As if you’re brave to go out and risk exposing your friends and family instead of a selfish coward who cares more about their pocketbook than their mothers life. People aren’t staying home to protect themselves, they’re staying home to protect you, even though you obviously don’t deserve it. So trump gave us just enough time to reduce the optics if dead bodies flung on trucks. Now that we have enough ventilates and coffins, who gives a hoot if 200,000 more die. Which family member are you sacrificing to the cause? Dad? Youngest son?

          Reply
          • Avatar
            David Marolda   June 19, 2020 at 10:46 am

            Staying home, if you can is the most logical thing to do. Those that can’t need to go back to work if they are not part of the most vulnerable populations (who may need some financial help if they are not already retired). The lockdowns did prevent the system from being overloaded but they should have ended by Memorial day.

      • Avatar
        Chet Ritchie   May 15, 2020 at 6:13 pm

        Absolutely, clearly mark yourself as a dumbass sheep

        Reply
      • Avatar
        Done Hiding   May 19, 2020 at 1:07 pm

        Life always was and IS a gamble and those of us who aren’t sniveling cowards are fine with you avoiding us.

        Reply
      • Avatar
        Alex   May 28, 2020 at 8:30 pm

        Do you go in the water at the beach? Do you drive a car? Do you fly in jet airliners? All three carry a substantially higher risk of death than coronavirus.

        Reply
        • Avatar
          The Dan   June 1, 2020 at 9:08 pm

          The charts actually show an increasing trend line over the last 5 weeks.

          And to Alex, show me where car accidents, deaths at the beach, airline crashes produce over 100,000 deaths in less than 3 months.

          Reply
      • Avatar
        Michael   June 12, 2020 at 8:01 am

        In the US alone 1,300 people die each day from smoking, 102 die each day in car accidents. Why do will still allow people to smoke and drive? It is called freedom. Freedom to make choices and hopefully make smart ones.

        Reply
        • Avatar
          L Racine   June 25, 2020 at 8:33 pm

          Smoking and car accidents do not spread and increase exponentially. The freedom you have to throw a punch ends at my nose.

          Reply
      • Avatar
        Maria   June 22, 2020 at 12:51 pm

        You are already avoiding everyone LOL and don’t worry, once you start the self righteous screeching, those of us with lives to live will avoid you!

        Reply
    • Avatar
      News Maven   April 13, 2020 at 6:54 pm

      Correct.
      And it set a very dangerous precedent.
      23x more Opoid OD deaths in LA than deaths from the Kung Flu. Where is the media outrage over that?
      The Fake News & their sheeple destroyed in one month three years worth of economic progress. SAD!

      Reply
      • Avatar
        Chris   April 16, 2020 at 7:43 pm

        They have a choice with the opioids but not the flu.

        Reply
        • Avatar
          Janet   June 8, 2020 at 4:20 pm

          Not really Chris. For some people one pain pill is all it takes to change a life. If you have not lived it….please refrain from uneducated comments. If it was as easy as a choice do you think it would be a crisis?

          Reply
      • Avatar
        Donna Thompson   April 16, 2020 at 10:29 pm

        agreed

        Reply
        • Avatar
          Donna Thompson   April 16, 2020 at 10:30 pm

          reopenamericanbusiness dot com

          Reply
      • Avatar
        RN   April 28, 2020 at 7:35 pm

        People did not destroy three years of economic progress Covid19 did. Neither the fake news nor the sheeple made a decision to shut the US down, Governors and the President did. Do you think for half a second Trump would do that if he could safely stay open?

        I guess the “fake news” staged the photos of overrun healthcare systems. Maybe the nurses are lying about working 16 hour days back to back (um nope I am an RN and a friend went to NYC, they are working that much, they have had shortages of PPE, and the hospitals are bursting at the seams in couple of areas in the city). The “fake news” baits him with blame and confrontational decisions ans statements he has made, rather than asking legit questions. But this is very real, and very serious.

        Reply
        • Avatar
          patrick tonkovich   May 7, 2020 at 5:34 pm

          I agree…when people say it’s political, think about it, yes it’s political suicide ..and wiping out all of our economic progress…but we will persevere and come out other side

          Reply
    • Avatar
      AJ   April 17, 2020 at 12:33 am

      Oh honey it is definitely not overblown. I would love to have our beaches and parks open more than anything however there are to many untrustworthy folks who think it is overblown to make it happen sooner than later. The ones who had to be made to stay home that wouldn’t, ruined it. It is what it is. I have lost 3 people who were working to help the rest if us. Them RIP the overblowers hope you find peace in rest. Get to know yourself again or for the 1st time. You may or may not like yourself! But please be smart and stay safe.

      Reply
      • Avatar
        David Marolda   June 19, 2020 at 10:58 am

        That is 50% of the picture. The initial lockdowns were a good idea. Masks and distancing still are. The other half of the picture is the deaths and financial ruin that flow from the lock downs

        Reply
    • Avatar
      S Mc Jacobs   June 7, 2020 at 6:24 am

      Where is the chart for pcr testing (not antibody testing.). The % positive of the total number tested. That is an important indicator that everyone is leaving out.
      That is showing prevalence and community spread. If the %positive with increased testing is trending downward, the spike in number of cases is overblown and manipulative. If the % positive is rising with the total number than we need to intervene.

      Reply
    • Avatar
      Susan   June 12, 2020 at 10:02 pm

      bob bear, you are correct. As far as the other response, 400 people are going to die in Florida from the new cases in the past week alone, that assumes a death rate less than 4% which is lower than previously. Was it worth opening so soon to have 400 more people die each week?

      Reply
      • Avatar
        David Marolda   June 19, 2020 at 10:59 am

        The death rate is nowhere near 4%

        Reply
      • Avatar
        David Marolda   June 19, 2020 at 11:02 am

        look at new covid hospitalizations (seven day moving average averages are best) The other numbers other than deaths are meaningless at this point.

        Reply
  4. Avatar
    John   April 13, 2020 at 8:04 am

    Is it true the Corona Virus testing is more likely to be a false negative than a false positive?

    Also folks being tested are being tested because they are suspect of having the virus?So, if they test negative now they could still potentially get it later?

    Wonder how many folks might have virus but don’t realize it because they previously had test and the outcome was negative because the test was innacurate or given prior to them actually getting the virus?

    Reply
    • Avatar
      Claire Z   April 30, 2020 at 9:58 am

      John, yes there are more false negatives than false positives. And, yes a person can test negative if he is so newly infected that the virus’s DNA doesn’t show up yet in the test, and yes it means that person can still get the virus at any time in the future.

      Reply
  5. Avatar
    TONY   April 13, 2020 at 8:09 am

    I just heard that the Democrat has a Leon County Zip Code Chart now. 32304 has the highest COVID-19 Cases.

    Reply
  6. Avatar
    Lia   April 13, 2020 at 12:48 pm

    There is still not enough testing being done to be certain it is not going to go up! I live in the Villages where testing is nearly impossible to get! Many do not even know of opportunity to request testing at the county health department, if they qualify that is. I found out, made an appointment, was there earlier than my appointed time and there was no body there! ? The people here already have a false sense of security with low numbers and death toll, have gotten a very late start on mitigation efforts, so numbers are going to spike before they go down in this area.?

    Reply
    • Avatar
      DeepStateProvocateur   April 13, 2020 at 6:29 pm

      @Lia –

      “I live in the Villages where testing is nearly impossible to get!”

      Clearly false. Trump has said repeatedly that there are plenty of tests. A tremendous number. Anyone who wants to be tested, can be tested.

      Reply
      • Avatar
        TONY   April 17, 2020 at 7:16 am

        President Trump is NOT the one handing them out. You need to Call or Email your Elected Officials and ask them WHY your area is not getting the need Tests.

        Reply
        • Avatar
          Adele   April 19, 2020 at 11:26 pm

          Go to your local Health Department.. but if you are not sick stay home!

          Reply
      • Avatar
        Donna   April 25, 2020 at 3:34 pm

        Are you kidding you must not have kids and if you do I feel very sorry for them. This is not a joke ppl are dying it’s very sad actually of what is going on as a mother I wouldn’t allow my kids near a school or go back to work you need a reality check…

        Reply
      • Avatar
        RN   April 28, 2020 at 7:40 pm

        Oh because Trump said it, it must be true. I am a nurse and I ASSURE YOU that until yesterday you could not get a test unless you had symptoms, even then you had to be referred by your doctor or in the hospital.

        Reply
        • Avatar
          Mike   May 5, 2020 at 8:35 am

          This post is so true. Trump says we have lots of tests. Wrong. He has assured us we would be safe from the virus at least 34 times [Washington Post]. We have lost countless lives because of Trump’s stupidity. We need anyone besides someone with the brain power of a squirrel to run this country.

          Reply
  7. Avatar
    Rich   April 17, 2020 at 6:10 am

    The cure is worse than the disease. Get us reopened asap. We can always close again if we turn into NY. It’s not about lives vs. health, its about lives vs. lives. Put on a mask and get to work. I feel like we are all “Marvin the Martian” waiting for the big boom. There has never been a big boom here. I’m starting to question the models that said 2.2 million people would die even with Social distancing. This was completely false and we are still using these models. I’m throwing a b’s flag on some of this. Let’s proceed with caution and get reopened now!!!

    Reply
    • Avatar
      TONY   April 17, 2020 at 9:38 am

      The cure is worse than the disease? Seriously? You could DIE from the Disease or put up with a few weeks of being alone and filling bad………… I will take a few weeks of being alone and filling bad ANY day. You are not THAT important to risk any ones LIFE because YOU think you are special.

      Reply
      • Avatar
        Calendar Much?   April 17, 2020 at 10:45 am

        We are well past “a few weeks” knucklehead.

        Reply
      • Avatar
        Rich   April 17, 2020 at 2:14 pm

        IWake up Tony. t’s lives vs lives. Watch the drug and alcohol rates rise. Suicide rates rise. Crime rates rise as we keep everything closed. Staying away from work will cost lives also.

        Reply
        • Avatar
          Nick   April 30, 2020 at 10:03 am

          This is one of the dumbest things I’ve ever heard

          Reply
          • Avatar
            David Marolda   June 19, 2020 at 11:08 am

            Actually deaths from the lockdowns themselves are inevitable, Its just an actuarial certainty.

      • Avatar
        jgo   April 20, 2020 at 8:06 pm

        Yes. The risk is very low. The likelihood of recovery is high.

        And then I can run (well, walk) out and do something far more risky: crossing Tennessee Street near the U to get to the library, confronting power-mad privacy violators, spraying chrysanthemum, geranium, &/or eucalyptus juice on the fierce mosquitoes the city breeds (capable of carrying dengue, yellow fever, malaria, or more commonly locally, encephalitis).

        Do a StartPage or DuckDuckGo search and weigh your risks. CDCP says:
        647,457 die from heart disease in a year
        599,108 from malignant neoplasms
        121,494 from Alzheimer’s complications
        83,564 from diabetes
        73,990 from illicit drugs
        55,672 from influenza & pneumonia
        50,633 from nephritis & related problems
        47,173 from suicide
        41,743 from liver dysfunction
        40,231 from vehicular accidents (down from over 50K back in 1950s, up from about 37K some years ago)
        35,823-80K from ethanol consumption
        35,316 from hypertension
        31,963 from Parkinson’s
        30,488 from prostate cancer
        15K murdered (aggregate all means)

        There are far too many Reds for it to be a blue county.

        Reply
  8. Avatar
    TONY   April 17, 2020 at 7:12 am

    I just read an article this morning that a federal Leon County prison WORKER tested positive for coronavirus. I’m thinking, he caught it and brought it into the Prison. With that said, why doesn’t Prisons and Jails have someone standing at the Entrance checking the Temperatures of all those coming in? Same thing for all State, City & County Buildings. With all the Stay Home and Work From Home orders, there are very few people in those Buildings. Make all those Buildings “One Way In / One Way Out” so it can be controlled.

    Reply
    • Avatar
      DeepStateProvocateur   April 17, 2020 at 7:28 am

      @Tony –

      One of the reasons that COVID spreads so much more rapidly than the standard flu is that you can be spreading it for days without showing any symptoms yourself. Sure, if you have a fever, you might have it. But not having a fever is no indication you are COVID free. Just staying home once you are sick doesn’t do anything about the time frame before you got sick where you can still spread the virus.

      Reply
      • Avatar
        Jon   April 17, 2020 at 11:19 am

        Deep, that’s how the flu spreads too. We just dont track it obssessivly and millions of people vaccinate. 50 million people got the flu last year in the us.

        Reply
        • Avatar
          John Provenzano   April 20, 2020 at 4:41 pm

          This is different. Everyone gets sick quickly not over the span of a year. Then the hospitals get overrun. Are you not seeing what is happening in New York and THE WHOLE WORLD!

          Reply
          • Avatar
            Jon   April 21, 2020 at 12:02 pm

            Yeah, thats life. We have one million beds just in hospitals in the US. 99% of people are unaffected, have no worse than flu symptoms. Florida’s hospital capacity is only 38% full. Leon county has one hospitalization a week. Was it worth panicking?

  9. Avatar
    TJ   April 17, 2020 at 11:04 am

    Forgive this idiot’s questions and rant-filled diatribe, but:

    Why is the pandhandle of Florida not being tested to the same degree that south Florida is? Our neighbors to the north in Georgia have a huge number of positives along the FL/GA border, we have a huge number of positives in LA, Alabama, the rest of Florida, yet the panhandle is not being tested? I have done a daily check on the FL dept of health Covid website for the last few weeks, everyday they tested, we had the state average of 10% positive returns on tests. Leon county alone was adding roughly 10 to 20 new cases every day. Then the testing stopped. The tests in Leon county stalled for about 4 days at roughly 1950 tests done. No new tests (or so minimal it didn’t move the counter), no new positives. Did they do this to keep the numbers artificially low? All of sudden, they began testing again. Testing numbers went over 2k, and what do you know, positives went up another 10% with it. The population of Leon county is close to 300k, yet the county has only performed 2k tests – that is less than 1% of the popluation. The local hospital even stated that they are showing more hospitalized and positive patients than are being reported by the department of health, to which the DoH said, we are looking into the discrepancies. . .
    Is Leon county hiding their numbers? Why are they not testing? There is no sickness in the capital, nothing to see here? Political Gain?
    Just a frustrated resident that wants to know the truth and what is going on…

    Reply
    • Avatar
      Margaret mac   April 17, 2020 at 9:10 pm

      Just try to find tests!! We’re not getting many according to medical staff. Probably punishment for being a blue county??

      Reply
  10. Avatar
    Lena   April 17, 2020 at 12:10 pm

    The virus is now the LEADING CAUSE OF DEATH in the US.

    “COVID-19, the illness caused by the novel coronavirus, is now the deadliest disease in the United States, killing more people per day than cancer or heart disease. According to a graph published Tuesday by Dr. Maria Danilychev, who practices in San Diego…”

    OK. We should NOT be returning to business as usual because we would just be infecting thousands of more people.

    ONE INFECTED PERSON was all it took to make thousands of others sick and kill about 80 people in Albany, Georgia when they weren’t taking this situation seriously enough.

    Why does anyone want thousands more infected and dead people, after which, the economy will be ruined again anyway?

    Reply
    • Avatar
      Jon   April 17, 2020 at 12:41 pm

      This week sure. This year not even close.

      Reply
  11. Avatar
    Snidely Whiplash   April 17, 2020 at 7:23 pm

    While The Trump virus is recognized by all thinking people on Earth to be the left’s last desperate hope to fling dooky on Trump before the Great Conservative 2020 presidential landslide, thats just a bunch of fluff like Russia Russia and Impeach Impeach Impeach, everybody knows we need to get back to work.
    Will people die from The Left’s Trump virus after we open up and get back to work? Hell yes some will die. Are we gonna get back to work? Hell yes we are gonna get back to work!!!
    Will Virus Virus Virus prevent Trump from being elected? Hell no Virus Virus Virus will NOT prevent Trump from being re elected.
    The left is so lame!!!!

    Reply
    • Avatar
      margaretmac   April 17, 2020 at 9:14 pm

      HELL YES!! No re-election of the egomaniacal, ignorant, moron!?

      Reply
      • Avatar
        Edward Lyle   April 19, 2020 at 8:45 am

        Why bring SpINO Pelosi into this?

        Reply
  12. Avatar
    Edward Lyle   April 19, 2020 at 8:43 am

    This is what happens when you let agenda-driven, taxpayer-funded, grant-dependent “scientists” play with a altered and modified SIMs game…

    No one should believe or react to any of this nonsense. No Informed American should accept any of this until we’re shown empirical data and a side-by-side comparative chart that depicts and compares the “real” year-to-date number of deaths “caused by” Covid-19 here in America… to the year-to-date number of deaths from the common flu, car wrecks, diabetes, cancer, abortion, trip and falls, et al…

    But this will never happen, lest we expose the ruse and manufactured hysteria that is designed to destroy our economy and Republic. Wake up America!

    May God continue to bless and protect America, Her President, Her Constitution, Her Laws, Her Sovereignty, and Her Citizens.

    Reply
  13. Avatar
    Jon   April 19, 2020 at 12:18 pm

    Not seeing a down trend yet, so still wait and see. However, does 200 hospitalized per day really require everyone losing their job and businesses? Or 1 hospitalization per week in Leon?

    Reply
  14. Avatar
    Lp   April 19, 2020 at 12:21 pm

    Is it possible, the reason that they aren’t testing as many people in Leon county, because they aren’t being directed to do so. I thought that you had to have signs/symptoms to be tested, pretty much directed by your doctor to a testing center.

    Reply
  15. Avatar
    Peggy Berry   April 19, 2020 at 9:43 pm

    I certainly am hopeful that with the beaches opening for “athletic’s, swimming, dog walking…but no sunbathing!!!!!. I found it interesting to see pictures of people lying on the beach. And forget the 6′ distance. Those of you who want your freedom….go for it, but leave me and mine ALONE, AND God forbid you get ill, remember….it was you who wanted freedom. To hell with the rest of the world. The attitude of many Americans is everyone for themselves, and God for no one. Let me tell you. I am a semi-retired RN, with a BSN, and am board certified. I have dealt with HTLV3, AIDS, ARC. I have worked on every floor there is. For heavens sake people, follow the rules. Wear a mask, stay 6′ away from each other. We nurses work hard enough without some non-compliant people who wonder….gee what happened” please please show care for yourselves, family, friends, the guy down the street.

    Reply
  16. Avatar
    Penny   April 20, 2020 at 12:41 am

    I know a few of my relatives were sick different times.. called doctor was directed where to go. Fever shortness of breath etc. None were given the test.. sent home with inhalers and antibiotics they were sick at least two weeks antibiotics didnt make it better but about the 14th day they just got better. They dont want to even test you unless gasping for breath. I think that’s why so many die at home or dont get to the hospital in time.. causing them to need a ventilator. Not a good chance of making it at that point. Just saying for sure cases are not getting reported because they are not testing you unless you need oxygen or worse. Not a single one of relatives were tested…we cant be the only ones this has happened to.

    Reply
    • Avatar
      Jon   April 20, 2020 at 5:17 pm

      And yet we have 90% negative tests? How does that square?

      Reply
  17. Avatar
    Trudy Peterson   April 20, 2020 at 3:19 am

    This graph is only reflective of testing and hospitalization. Duval county testing sites were down last week due to rain. It neither accounts for deaths only hospitalizations. Many, like nursing homes do not go to hospitals. These charts are misleading. Considered they are not from an independent source I have to wonder if they are politically driven. Good luck Lenny Curry on your meet with POUS.

    Reply
  18. Avatar
    Amy Adamski   April 20, 2020 at 9:42 am

    Since not testing would be a great way to keep numbers down….I’d like to see a chart with testing figures as well.

    Reply
  19. Avatar
    Chuck   April 20, 2020 at 2:29 pm

    I wonder why hospitalizations spike on the weekends? Are people working all week, then when they have a little time off going to get seen? Maybe they only have time to take loved ones on the weekend? Seems like an interesting dynamic…

    Reply
  20. Avatar
    Snidely Whiplash   April 21, 2020 at 7:18 pm

    At this point we need to shelter Grandmom, Grandpop, and all our disabled citizens. Some others also with underlying health issues.
    The remainder of you healthy able bodied folks are gonna report for work ASAP.
    That’s right you!
    No more binge watching no more pajamas in the daytime no more masturbation alcohol and drug enhanced marathons all day for you lazy pukes. Yes its time to un-ass from the comfy couch and report for work for all of you!!!
    Open our beloved economey back up.
    No disrespect intended but you all need to get to work, wear masks, use hand sanitizer, and whatever. But it over already.
    If you follow the basic protection you still might get sick but you will survive what will be no more than maybe a bad cold for you healthy folks. Stop being whiney diaper babies and take your ass back to work.

    Reply
  21. Avatar
    Jay Dub   April 22, 2020 at 6:56 am

    Not a single person asked for this to happen and people are dying every day. If it affected any of the people spreading hate and blame it would change their tune. Stay safe and avoid those who choose to be ignorant. People can go back to work when it’s safe.

    Reply
    • Avatar
      Jon   April 22, 2020 at 11:27 am

      Great, lets go back to work then, because its safe. Almost no one in Leon County has it. Almost everyone who does have it has minor symptoms.

      Reply
  22. Avatar
    Lena   April 24, 2020 at 7:14 pm

    This situation is serious.

    There are some days when the virus is the leading cause of death in the US.

    There is no vaccine and no cure.

    The only thing you can do is try to stop it from spreading.

    Or you can end up like Albany, GA where one infected person reportedly made 1,400 sick and killed 100 people. As Albany is only less than two hours away, I’m not sure why this hasn’t been the top story here.

    Worst case scenario seems to be Ecuador where corpses are not picked up and have been left rotting in homes and in the street.

    Yeah, it’s a serious problem and King of Stupid saying you could drink bleach or fry yourself with UV light is further insanity.

    Reply
    • Avatar
      Jon   April 25, 2020 at 11:47 am

      Not the only thing you can do. 99% of people can fight it naturally with antibodies, recover in a couple weeks at most and get on with their lives instead of hiding and obsessing about Trump.

      Reply
  23. Avatar
    Way O Verblown   April 25, 2020 at 10:55 am

    I think LB + Lena should take their own advise and NEVER LEAVE THEIR HOUSES AGAIN!!
    Party at my place!

    Reply
  24. Avatar
    Uncle Matt   April 25, 2020 at 2:27 pm

    I neither know anyone who has Kung-flu nor do I know anyone who knows anyone who HAS or HAD it. With that knowledge, and after reading “how to lie with statistics” in the 10th grade I doubt a lot of the accuracy of the data, the source of the data, and the relevance of certain bits of data.

    It seems that we hear a lot of suggestions/mandates/conclusions that are based on questionable data at best…..anecdotes at the least.

    NOBODY has the answer right now and we are NEVER going to not be susceptible to this or any other current or future virus so then this then becomes, or in my humble opinion SHOULD become, a personal decision. Stay inside if you feel safest that way or go out with PPE or just go out and get on with your life and try not to jeopardize anyone’s else’s health. But for the love of GOD please don’t continue to trample on my freedoms, my rights, or my livelihood.

    This, my friends, is why the second amendment is the second amendment!

    Reply
  25. Avatar
    Cynthia   April 26, 2020 at 12:23 am

    I would support more business openings if we could ALL have n95 masks. Those are the only thing that prevent the virus from entering your body, and that’s not 100%. But of course our federal government can’t figure out how to produce those masks OR tests either. Until then, it has to be lockdown for everybody.

    Reply
  26. Avatar
    Lynn   April 26, 2020 at 5:47 pm

    I support the thought that groceries and stores like Walgreens, even doctors offices could continue to close early, disinfect and have the vulnerable to come in early. That is obviously working where I live in the hot spot of south Florida because the same people are working in Publix, Sams, and other stores that I shop at and they have been there for the 6 weeks we have all be quarantined. I would love for anyone who feels it is a problem for them personally to feel free to stay home and get delivery. I deliver to my disable sister in law. But I go out 3 to 4 times a week to pick up groceries, a meal I ordered, drop off a package at the post office. But one thing we need to remember – people cannot get elective surgery – that includes any elective surgery like a colonoscopy, a biopsy, a baby getting tubes in their ears to relieve serious pain, an ACL for someone who tore it before the stay at home. And this does not address families in unhealthy situations, people in depression, or suicidal. There has to be some balance, and opening a few things here and there is needed.

    Reply
  27. Avatar
    John Hill   April 27, 2020 at 10:08 am

    Young, healthy, need to work? No senior citizens in your household? Okay, fine, go back to work, but is it asking too much to wear a god damned mask? In pictures from China EvERYONE is wearing masks including Xi. Here, by contrast, no one is, including Trump. Now we have maybe 20 tomes the Covid cases as China. Coincidence? I was at a gathering yesterday among 50 other souls and I was the only one wearing a mask. So am I the stupid one?

    Reply
    • Avatar
      News Maven   April 27, 2020 at 5:13 pm

      Yes.
      Any other questions, sheeple?

      Reply
    • Avatar
      Jon   April 28, 2020 at 12:40 pm

      Not stupid, but neither was anyone else. Theres a 99.99% chance no one at your gathering had the virus, Why not wear a helmet too in case you fell down, which is far more likely.

      Point being you dont NEED a mask, but it doesnt hurt.

      Reply
  28. Avatar
    NVC   April 27, 2020 at 4:26 pm

    I am a physician and work in a risk-associated environment. I wash my hands 20x per day, encourage social distancing . I wear a mask whenever I am out of my home. I wear it to go to the grocer, the pharmacist, and certainly when in my office seeing patients. I have not seen my grandson in 6 weeks as there is fear I could bring an infection into his home or their household could pass it on to me- the old guy in the group.
    The mask says two things: 1. We live in very uncertain times. 2. It is, however, very certain that I will do all the things we currently accept that will reduce the risk of my hurting anyone else (family, friend, stranger) or myself.
    No , you are not stupid. Find a more enlightened group of souls.

    Reply
  29. Avatar
    Oliver   April 27, 2020 at 7:21 pm

    How is the black trend line calculated? It looks strangely low for the first half of the data.

    Reply
    • Avatar
      Staff   April 27, 2020 at 7:43 pm

      The black line is a seven day average. Therefore, at 3/27 the black line represents an average of the cases reported from 3/21-3/27. The reported cases on four of those days were below 300.

      Reply
  30. Avatar
    Curtis   April 27, 2020 at 7:40 pm

    FYI with about 17 degrees of freedom (df = n – 1; 4/8 through 4/26 -> n=18; df = 18 – 1 = 17), TR could probably extend that declining trendline at least two weeks (i.e., 14 days, or until around 5/10), maybe three, if you wanted to push it.

    Reply
  31. Avatar
    Snidely Whiplash   April 27, 2020 at 8:10 pm

    Whooo this is new:
    Look closely at the new graph.
    It’s clearly telling us we must cower in fear, binge watch Net Flix, and get fat untill right after Joe Biden is elected.
    Look closely now….there you see it too!!!

    Reply
  32. Avatar
    Skeptical   April 28, 2020 at 2:57 am

    Are new cases really going down OR is there just a shortages of test kits? Bond Clinic only had five test kits?

    Reply
  33. Avatar
    Allison   April 28, 2020 at 3:56 am

    The rich will continue to stay safe at home even if the state re-opens. It is always those who HAVE to work who force themselves to go to work even when they feel lousy. You think Barron Trump will be going back to school anytime soon? No. But all other kids will have to if they open schools. If you didn’t need to work because of financial security, and you and your spouse had health issues, would you go out like it’s any other day? If you had kids would you feel comfortable letting them go back to school now…if it means possibly bringing Covid-19 home and Gramma lives with you? And for those who keep saying how great the economy was before Covid-19 came along (ala Trump’s bragging the same)…how come so many people in our country are broke and standing in food bank lines after no income for a couple of weeks? Millions of people living paycheck to paycheck and/or working two jobs just to make ends meet is NOT the definition of a great economy. Those who invest in the stock market might agree with Trump, but most Americans don’t make enough money to save anything from their checks. That ain’t “great”. I’m sure Bubba, donning his MAGA hat and guzzlin’ suds in his trailer, while watching FOX, just believes what he hears. Go on back to work…risk your health and the health of others, even though the economy was and won’t be great still. Hurry! That hamster wheel is cold from inactivity!

    Reply
    • Avatar
      Jon   April 28, 2020 at 12:43 pm

      Allison, thats why people work, save, spend wisely. You should ask why everyone isnt emulating the rich.

      Reply
    • Avatar
      Rusty   April 29, 2020 at 8:10 am

      Allison, you can overcome your fear of death and that of your loved ones by believing and sharing the good news of God, which is briefly summarized below:

      God made the world and everything in it. Therefore, He is the owner and rightful ruler of the entire universe, and we are all accountable to Him.

      However, the Bible tells us, and our consciences remind us, that we have all sinned against God. We have all rebelled against God and sought to live by our own rules and desires. We disobey His law by lying, lust, sinful anger, selfishness, and many other ways. God is a just and righteous judge. He will judge all who have disobeyed Him, sentencing them to Hell for eternity.

      But God, in His love and mercy, made a way by which He could uphold His justice and forgive the guilty. He sent His Son, Jesus, into the world. Jesus is fully God and now fully man. By becoming a man, He was able to live the perfect life God required of us and to die and take the penalty we deserve for our sin. He was raised from the dead so that our sins could be fully paid for, and we could have His perfect life counted for us.

      This is the good news of God. The Bible says that if you will turn from your sin and trust in Jesus as your Savior, relying on His death and resurrection as your only hope of satisfying God’s demands, you will be forgiven by God and given new and eternal life. How will you respond? Will you trust in your own goodness on judgment day, or will you trust Jesus now?

      Reply
  34. Avatar
    Edward Lyle   April 28, 2020 at 8:15 am

    Wow Allison… bitter much?

    Reply
  35. Avatar
    Jason   April 28, 2020 at 4:43 pm

    Hey, Allison, why don’t you go watch a little more CNN & MSNBC? You’ll feel better. Or, better yet – get a job.

    Reply
  36. Avatar
    Terry   April 30, 2020 at 4:30 am

    Regarding the New Cases graph, shouldn’t there be a graph of some kind indicating the very low number of test kits available in Tallahassee daily?

    Reply
  37. Avatar
    Barbara M   April 30, 2020 at 3:31 pm

    This is TERRIFIC data, thank you. What jumps out at me, though on April 30 is that if we look at the WHITE HOUSE CRITERIA wanting 14 days of falling Hospitalizations, and falling new cases, we have NOT achieved both. The trend line for hospitalizations is barely changing.
    So if we follow the directions that TRUMP released a few weeks ago for the phased reopening, looking to see 14 DAYS OF DECLINE, FL SHOULD NOT YET BE REOPENING.
    Those were the criteria they set out!

    Reply
    • Avatar
      Jon   May 2, 2020 at 9:38 pm

      We have one hospitalization per day in Leon County.

      Reply
  38. Avatar
    Bill   May 2, 2020 at 11:58 am

    Facts first, the KKK has mutated into what everybody knows are Southern republicans, except what changes besides hating everyone that’s not white, they include all poor whites. So expect more voter repression, less benefits that ya can’t even get what’s out there now, and health care that already the worst in the country. So all you poor folk get out there and get sick, fill the pockets of Republicans pockets with more money.

    Reply
  39. Avatar
    Rick Mazur   May 2, 2020 at 9:50 pm

    Nice information. I would also like to see county data and include the number of test conducted each day like Gov DeSantis described a few days ago in his TV briefing. As I recall he referred to that graph as “Positivity” and stated it is the most important tool to look at all this data.

    Reply
  40. Avatar
    Tim   May 4, 2020 at 3:59 pm

    Had to point out. Based on a report of 650+ positive cases in the big bend on another media outlet. Okay. Feel free to correct my math or confirm my numbers. Based on the total population (most stats from 2018, so probably now higher), the population in the same Big Bend areas listed Is 618,520. Or a covid infection rate of .001%. A death rate of .00004%. Again if my numbers or percentages are off I’d like to hear but probably not by much. All deaths and illnesses are sad and tragic, however in my opinion the current statistics do not justify a mandatory shutdown and closures that we are currently experiencing. When a person sees just the headlines the media puts out there to get attention without including all the facts, that panders the fear mongering.

    Reply
  41. Avatar
    B.Good   May 5, 2020 at 1:05 am

    ALL of the numbers are artificially low. If only people who have symptoms get tested then it is not a random sample so it does not accurately express what the infection rate is. If we knew the true numbers of deaths and infections, no one would leave their home. Also masks are a bad idea as it only makes the likely hood of touching your face higher.

    Reply
  42. Avatar
    Jon   May 5, 2020 at 2:55 pm

    Im confused how you get a 72 average new deaths today, when there has been less than 40 deaths per day according to the DOH.

    Reply
    • Avatar
      Jon   May 5, 2020 at 2:58 pm

      Nm, the black line is the average. Charts are supposed to have a legend.

      Reply
  43. Avatar
    News Maven   May 5, 2020 at 7:32 pm

    When you restrict the freedoms of the sick, it’s called quarantining.

    When you restrict the freedoms of the well, it’s called TYRANNY.

    Reply
    • Avatar
      Phil A   May 6, 2020 at 12:36 am

      I didn’t know that “tyranny” is a synonym of “logical.”

      Reply
    • Avatar
      DeepStateProvocateur   May 7, 2020 at 7:46 am

      Good point, News Maven! If anything, quarantining sick people is also Tyranny! I don’t see anything in the Constitution that says someone may have their freedoms restricted if they are sick. If I have corona virus, AIDS, Ebola, and Cat Scratch Fever, there is nothing, NOTHING, in the CONSTITUTION, that says the Government can restrict my rights to go shopping, play basketball, or goto a swing dance. It’s like these people haven’t even read the Constitution, or more likely, are in bed with Soros and other Dem-Socialists because they hate America.

      What’s more, I should be free to run red lights. They are restricting *my freedom* to get to where I need to go at the timeframe I need to get there. It’s *my* decision if I am going to endanger myself, and if someone else doesn’t want to get hit by my car, they can stay home like sheeple.

      MAGA!

      Reply
  44. Avatar
    William   May 7, 2020 at 12:12 am

    This is a big RUSE. Social control and compliance test for next event.

    Reply
  45. Avatar
    Jon   May 8, 2020 at 8:57 am

    Why does the DOH dashboard show much lower numbers? Less than 20 deaths per day.

    Reply
  46. Avatar
    Alexander Coughlin   May 8, 2020 at 1:48 pm

    We are Floridians. We know how ridiculous the notion is of trying to repair your home while in the midst of a tropical storm or hurricane. The pandemic is no different. If you truly want businesses to open up, we need to do a true lock-down plus a substantial increase in testing and contact tracing. The pandemic dies down from the lock-down while the testing and tracing ensures that we catch any new flare ups or importations. These things are necessary to create public confidence and allow things to reopen. What we are doing now is fixing our house while in eye of the hurricane. Beyond foolish.

    Reply
  47. Avatar
    jim rapp   May 8, 2020 at 5:16 pm

    We need to open up and be smart about our behavior. The lockdown slowed us down and showed us how to be safe. Now its up to us to know the risks of our behaviors and to get on with life.

    Reply
  48. Avatar
    Joanna Tammaro   May 11, 2020 at 10:21 pm

    Overblown? Seriously? 4.17 MILLION cases worldwide and the US with the highest death rate at over 80,000? I’d hate to hear what you think “really serious” is. The way to get ahead of COVID-19 has been demonstrated by many other Countries… and we are not following their lead. If science, and the examples proven to work are going to be ignored, then at least mandate gloves and masks for everyone out publicly…. Regardless of whether you are being cautious or not- ASK yourself “What if I’m wrong?” If wearing protective precautionary masks etc is in fact over zealous, unnecessary who is going to be at risk or hurt because you are “wrong”.. If on the other hand you are not practicing precautionary measures?? Who could possibly be negatively impacted by your choice?

    Reply
    • Avatar
      Jon   May 12, 2020 at 1:58 pm

      Yeah overblown. 99.5% of people who get it, recover. The flu kills 30-50k every year, and infects 50 million in the US every year. Viruses are a fact of nature. We should take reasonable measures to avoid infecting others, treat it where possible and continue to let the health care industry create wealth and jobs by fighting them. But we have almost no cases in Leon County. We have event hit 1% confirmed cases in the US. We dont need to be in total lockdown.

      Reply
  49. Avatar
    wally   May 11, 2020 at 10:48 pm

    Interesting to see the ignorance & stupidity spewed out in these comments back in April. Sadly fox is still foaming at the mouth.

    Reply
  50. Pingback: May 11: New Cases and New Hospitalizations Charts – Tallahassee ... - MyPPE Retail Store

  51. Avatar
    Curious   May 12, 2020 at 10:02 pm

    so, its been a month since I’ve posted anything. Leon County population is 293,582. The County has suffered 6 deaths attributed to the virus thru today. I noticed my barber back at work yesterday. I wonder how many folks actually read this long a string of comments? Must have a new important opinion or something!

    Reply
  52. Pingback: New Cases and New Hospitalizations Charts – Tallahassee Reports – Distrump

  53. Avatar
    Darlene Rancourt   May 14, 2020 at 10:21 pm

    Thank you for the daily hospitalizations and daily deaths Charts (with 7-day average trend line based on cases reported by the Florida Department of Health DOH) ! These will give a better trend image than positive cases charts do.

    Is it possible to provide a comparison chart? For instance, the same period last year, or compilation of the same period over previous years . . . or even January or February of this year?

    As the two week frame moves farther away from March, it becomes difficult to see a piece of ‘normal’ . . . Thanks Again!

    Reply
  54. Pingback: May 14: New Cases and New Hospitalizations Charts – Tallahassee ... - Wholesale: Personal Protective Equipment Store

  55. Avatar
    Jon   May 16, 2020 at 11:33 am

    Just a reminder TMH said by now, best scenario, in our region, 50 new hospitalizations per day. We are currently at near 0.

    Reply
  56. Pingback: May 16: New Cases and New Hospitalizations Charts – Tallahassee ... - MyPPE Retail Store

  57. Pingback: May 16: New Cases and New Hospitalizations Charts – Tallahassee ... - MyPPE Retail Store

  58. Avatar
    News Maven   May 17, 2020 at 9:00 am

    Why do reported deaths go WAY down on the weekends?
    Can’t believe nobody noticed this in the bar graph above.

    Do you really think the Coronavirus is taking weekend off?

    Reply
  59. Avatar
    Larry   May 17, 2020 at 9:58 am

    FL Covid Reporting data seems to be categorized based on when it was reported to them, not the actual date of the death. Also, for every new daily update some of the older counts for things like # of tests, hospitalizations, deaths, # of positive deaths, etc. going back as far as 2 weeks also change slightly (almost always in a downward direction). I download the raw data daily and do my own analysis and trending of the data, but it would be nice if they added more detail to the site on the data collection methodology.

    Like this website does, I trend most of my data with a 7 day rolling avg. metric since any one individual day typically isn’t really representative of much and eliminates the variability of the weekends.

    Reply
  60. Pingback: May 17: New Cases and New Hospitalizations Charts – Tallahassee ... - MyPPE Retail Store

  61. Pingback: May 17: New Cases and New Hospitalizations Charts – Tallahassee ... - MyPPE Retail Store

  62. Avatar
    MLaska   May 19, 2020 at 3:41 pm

    I find it interesting that some people who think this virus is a farce and want to go back to work will say “if you want to stay home from work that is fine but, let the others go back” at first but then they start referring to those people who want to stay home as cowards. It seems like some are just mad at those who can afford to be cautious and have the choice weather or not they want to go back.

    Reply
  63. Avatar
    Pamela Donnelly   May 20, 2020 at 11:39 am

    Action News Jax:
    “Gov. Ron DeSantis’ administration said Tuesday evening that a Department of Health employee who helped create Florida’s COVID-19 information “dashboard” was fired for insubordination, disputing allegations that she was terminated for refusing to manipulate data”.

    Welp, guess we will never really know whats going on now…….not even worth looking at a FL case chart anymore because DeSantis is fudging the numbers.

    Reply
  64. Pingback: May 20: New Cases and New Hospitalizations Charts – Tallahassee ... - MyPPE Retail Store

  65. Avatar
    Matt   May 23, 2020 at 10:20 am

    Thanks for publishing TR. Do you have data on the total number of COVID hospitalizations each day? Looking for something that would help understand utilization/capacity. Thanks!

    Reply
  66. Avatar
    Tango247   May 25, 2020 at 2:02 pm

    It is always a bit amusing to read back through the predictions and see just how many of the predictions, declarations, and conclusions withstood the test of time. During a crisis (in general) or anytime panic manifests this is predictable: Half of what you hear is not true, and the other half will later be proven false.
    A practical example: Incoming missile (SCUD) that could contain deadly gas (Sarin). Everybody scrambles and puts on their suits and masks. Missile lands. Everybody waits. Soon, unprotected people come out of shelter and and are have symptoms of pepper stray or crowd control chemical agents. Your choice – stay in the awful charcoal MOP suit and be unable to eat, drink, or use the bathroom or take off the suit and suffer the irritation.
    My point being, if you put the mask on out of respect for the predictions, then you should take it off now out of respect for the data. If you keep wearing it at this point, it would be intellectually dishonest to ever take it off again.

    Reply
    • Avatar
      Reason4Living   May 25, 2020 at 3:11 pm

      I was thinking the same thing Tango. It is interesting how many have gone virtually silent in this string because they stopped following the science and data long ago. Their predictions of doom and gloom if places like GA and FL open up have not come true. It is almost like some are disappointed there hasn’t been the predicted death and illness (or they don’t believe the data anymore?). Instead many only listen to anecdotal negative scary stories of outliers that happen with virtually any virus. The curve was flattened and the hospital system is virtually starving for patients. But data and science all of a sudden don’t matter because it doesn’t fit a narrative. The hate for Trump is blinding people. Intelligent and objective people can look past the stupid things politicians do and say (and both parties have no shortage of stupid). I choose to use my own brain and don’t fall for bias narratives on the left or the right. I follow the science, data, and facts. This is a virus that kills a relatively small percentage of mainly vulnerable precious people on this Earth of 7.5 billion souls and it is scary contagious. This virus is likely not going to go away for years, even with a vaccine. The question shouldn’t be as much about how we want to die, since frankly we are all going to die at some point anyway. The question and discussion should be how we all want to live. Continuing to wait in our houses isn’t going to help since we all have to come out some day. And when we do, there will likely be a resurgence of cases no matter which date we choose. But since the hospitals are not currently overrun, and the curve has more than flattened…its time to start living again. Protect the vulnerable, if they want to be protected, and watch the hospitalization curve to protect our healthcare system and workers, but go on with life as we know it…which carries all kinds of risks, not just COVID-19.

      Reply
  67. Avatar
    MIB   May 26, 2020 at 8:10 am

    So, the curves have flattened. The hospitals are not overwhelmed (though the power-mad illiberal leftist/ Red/ Dem/ collectivist pols in 4 states ordered the most vulnerable people to be exposed, FCOL!).

    The test-kits have improved & proliferated. There are over dozen pharmaceutical treatments in various stages of testing (including 4, nearly ready for wide release) and some that have been out for off-label prescription use seem to be effective for many. At least 6 (that I recall offtge cuff) vaccines are in various stages (including 4), and some are expected to be available in 100M dose quantities in October. Masks are more available, instructions for do-it-yourself masks are posted on-line (as are “raven-beaked plague doctor” 14th-17th century hazmat costumes ?).

    A series of semi-random testing projects have shown 8%-25% infection rates (higher in over-crowded, leftist-subjugated areas), 0.01%-2.8% mortality, though more extensive testing of this sort (tied to massive privacy violation schemes) is being planned.

    Let’s get back to work. On with the Trump visa/immigration/border-security reforms (though he & the squishy congress-critters have been wimping out more & more to the execs & lobbyists for cheap, pliant, low-skilled labor with flexible ethics recently) & economic recovery. No more porkulus. More real jobs (as opposed to gigs/bodyshopping), better job search sites.

    Reply
  68. Avatar
    Ja   May 26, 2020 at 9:44 am

    Why are the totals different between this site and the florida site:

    https://fdoh.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/8d0de33f260d444c852a615dc7837c86

    Reply
  69. Avatar
    Archie   May 29, 2020 at 2:45 pm

    Love this thread! A microcosm of our Humanity. It clearly demonstrates, that we are all nothing more than evolved hairless Apes, pretending that we are ‘Intelligent’. there is no intelligence without full knowledge, and there is no full knowledge as we are each driven by our experiences ergo opinions, resulting in a fact being mutable. Me included….

    The only valid point made here is that we are all going to die – deal with it. I am capable of deciding my own risk tolerance – who hasn’t run through a yellow->red light? For me I just don’t want to be the reason my Parents/Siblings/Spouse/Children/Grandchildren die.

    I wonder how Peoples behavior would be affected if they could see Coronavirus spores through special glasses that made them look like angry bees. Would you avoid them or walk through them or touch them? Afraid of a sting? But not, a metaphorical game of Russian Roulette?

    I wonder if Apes run away from Bees?

    This is the thing that should differentiate us from Apes – we understand that there are things that are real – even though we can not see/touch it – Air, Sound, Radio Waves, UV rays, Emotion, viruses, germs, the roundness of the Planet.

    Reply
  70. Pingback: May 28: New Cases and New Hospitalizations Charts – Tallahassee ... - MyPPE Retail Store

  71. Pingback: May 28: New Cases and New Hospitalizations Charts – Tallahassee ... - MyPPE Retail Store

  72. Avatar
    Tom Thompson   May 30, 2020 at 7:28 am

    Dear Tallahassee Reports staff:
    Thank you for this daily update on Covid hospitalizations! It is really the only piece of data that I believe shows the true trend of Covid and it is has shown not only the flattening of the curve by Floridians but no negative effect from re-opening over one month ago (not sure why the news media doesn’t celebrate this at all).

    One request – would it be possible to follow-up with the hospitals for maybe a week or two and see how many of these initial Covid-assumed hospitalizations actually turned out tested positive for Covid and how many were flu/pneumonia or other? I have a feeling these hospitalization numbers are even better than shown based on Covid positive test results to date never being over 10%.

    Reply
  73. Avatar
    John H Watkins   May 31, 2020 at 9:26 am

    With all of the myriad of numbers reported on Covid deaths and articles spinning the results of the cases and deaths and hospitalizations, I would really appreciate just seeing a number published of the total deaths for all causes in April 2020. I can’t find the number anywhere on the internet and we are at the end of May!!!

    Reply
  74. Avatar
    CK   May 31, 2020 at 12:33 pm

    Is the State of Florida now requiring user login information to sign on to the Department of Health COVID-19 Dashboard? I tried to go to the site this morning and it asked me to verify my credentials.

    Reply
  75. Avatar
    Jack Johnson   June 1, 2020 at 11:28 pm

    It should be discussed that sheltering too long will cost lives as well. If the goal is 100% no loss of life, you have created an unrealistic situation and you can’t blame the other side for the loss if and when a tough decision will be made. Forcing healthy people to live inside and not be out bolstering their immune systems will also lead to many health problems and possible deaths. Please weigh that whether you hide in fear, or choose to find the place when we can all get our lives going again there will be losses of life on either side of this equation. I lost a dear friend recently that was delayed in getting the open room in the hospital for a heart attack because of the chaos and fear in processing at the hospital. Let’s think about this for a second. Putting aside normal procedures that can save people in fear of COVID…

    Reply
  76. Pingback: June 1: New Cases and New Hospitalizations Charts – Tallahassee ... - MyPPE Retail Store

  77. Avatar
    Mike   June 7, 2020 at 9:58 pm

    I thought the original idea of sheltering was to “flatten the curve” so that the number of sick individuals would not overwhelm the medical system. It was never to avoid all deaths (which is not a reasonable goal). The curve has been flattened pretty well (at least in most locations in the US). Opening up will be associated with increased deaths, but hopefully the number of sick will not overwhelm medical services. The most susceptible appear to be the elderly. Would be great if everyone practiced social distancing out of concern for our most vulnerable (even if it is an inconvenience).

    Reply
  78. Pingback: June 7: New Cases and New Hospitalizations Charts – Tallahassee ... - MyPPE Retail Store

  79. Pingback: June 7: New Cases and New Hospitalizations Charts – Tallahassee ... - MyPPE Retail Store

  80. Avatar
    Robert Dick   June 8, 2020 at 7:09 pm

    Covid is more contagious and deadly than
    Flu.
    However, you are 20 times less likely to
    Contract Covid outdoors.
    Social distancing and wearing masks will
    Further reduce risk
    There will be more cases, hospitalizations and deaths as the country opens up.
    However, there should be better and earlier identification of those afflicted and better contact tracing.
    The downside of further shutdown is enormous.
    The government and the fed have pumped 7-8 TRILLION dollars to keep people and businesses afloat.
    That is unsustainable.
    The human costs:
    Huge increases in suicide, marital abuse
    Alcohol and drug overdose deaths and
    80-100,000 cases of cancer estimated to
    Have missed detection.
    Hundreds of thousands of symptomatic orthopedic and cardiac cases not getting done.
    Millions of jobs lost forever
    And millions of children going to bed hungry.

    So to the Americans who are concerned about the fairly rapid pace of reopening in spite of more Covid cases and deaths… you should be … but we really have no choice
    Unless we are prepared to have a worse depression than the Great Depression
    Followed by inflation never seen before in the US.
    Catastrophic consequences could be just around the corner if we stay closed or close again in the fall when the virus hits us again.
    Thank China!

    Reply
  81. Avatar
    Lena   June 8, 2020 at 8:42 pm

    So…there’s a real disconnect between the headline and the confirmed cases graph which clearly shows new cases climbing.

    And they have been at about 1,000 almost every day this week.

    It’s not over.

    We all wish it was.

    It’s just not, though.

    Reply
    • Avatar
      Thomas Thompson   June 9, 2020 at 7:51 am

      Hospitalizations have always been the key Lena. Flatten the curve. We have done that and it is a good thing that people appear to continue to get the virus at a low rate and without the need for hospital care. It helps us build some immunity in our communities before another outbreak hits us. The increase in cases is partially because of 5x the number of tests the last few weeks. Again…hospitalizations show the severity of the outbreak. They continue to decrease and these are daily hospitalizations for “suspected” Covid. Not all of these hospitalizations will be Covid positive. For reference we have 233 hospitals in Florida and 120 people a day needing hospitalization right now.

      Reply
  82. Avatar
    Florida Mike   June 9, 2020 at 2:31 pm

    From where do you get the data for the daily hospitalizations? Is that available online to mere mortals? Graphs show we are flattening the curve and not out of any woods, yet. Thanks.

    Reply
  83. Avatar
    Zack   June 9, 2020 at 5:34 pm

    Hospitalization and death rocketed today.

    Reply
  84. Avatar
    David Cross   June 10, 2020 at 12:04 am

    I suppose the hospitalization chart is for COVID-19 cases but neither the text nor the label makes that clear.

    Reply
    • Avatar
      Zack   June 10, 2020 at 1:27 pm

      I think both hospitalization and death charts are on covid-19, which is the only thing this whole page addresses.

      Reply
  85. Avatar
    Thomas Thompson   June 10, 2020 at 9:03 am

    The hospitalization data is always higher on Monday and low on Saturday-Sunday. Guessing people just don’t go the hospital on weekends. It’s the same every week in the data above.

    Reply
    • Avatar
      Dave T.   June 10, 2020 at 11:23 am

      I suspect it’s just a lag in reporting from some hospitals on weekends. Weekend dip followed by a Monday catch up.

      Reply
    • Avatar
      TomJ   June 10, 2020 at 2:24 pm

      The chart is slightly misleading: it’s showing hospitalizations REPORTED every day. The hospitalizations could actually have been a week or two before they’re reported.

      Reply
  86. Pingback: June 8: New Cases and New Hospitalizations Charts – Tallahassee ... - MyPPE Retail Store

  87. Avatar
    andrew sage   June 10, 2020 at 3:01 pm

    This such BS. propaganda and fear mongering

    Reply
    • Avatar
      Thomas Thompson   June 11, 2020 at 6:55 am

      To Tallahassee Reports – Orlando station WFTV now reporting that the Florida daily case numbers now include “positive antibody tests”. These are individuals who previously had Covid not new cases. No idea why they are not separating the data but your daily case chart above is terribly misleading. New cases are not increasing- only overall cumulative cases are from testing after the fact (antibody).

      Reply
  88. Avatar
    bob   June 10, 2020 at 7:44 pm

    Um,I just read 172 responses,And all i can say is a lot of you Trump supporters are going to die from Covid 19.So sad.

    Reply
  89. Avatar
    Tara   June 11, 2020 at 11:10 am

    Bob, shame on you!

    Reply
  90. Avatar
    DJ   June 11, 2020 at 10:07 pm

    This is an extremely useful chart (7 day moving average of hospitalizations)

    Reply
  91. Avatar
    SK   June 12, 2020 at 8:33 am

    The most important chart is missing. Current total / active hospitalizations due to COVID reflecting new admissions less dismissals (either through death or recovery). Daily admissions only tell one side of the story. A reference point for estimated hospital capacity would be nice also. Are hospitals filling up? How much space is left? When will triage kick in?

    Reply
  92. Avatar
    BJ   June 12, 2020 at 10:35 am

    Bob’s a real gem, eh? Losers on CNN/MSNBC and elsewhere said early on that “Trump supporters” would be die at a much higher rate because he was hyping Hydroxychloriquine (sp?) or just because deplorable or something. Those people and Bob are literally rooting for deaths in Florida because DeSantis looks good in his decision making that was roundly criticized from day 1. How many Trump supporters have dies in NY, NJ, MI as a result of those horrible Governors and their assualt on nursing homes knowing exactly what they were doing in pushing / keeping infected people into those places. This just in…. long-term care facilities /nursing homes are not Hospitals! Go away Bob. cozy up the latest addition of Trump-Russia collusion and the breathless reports you soaked up for 2 years. Lol buddy

    Reply
  93. Avatar
    BJ   June 12, 2020 at 10:52 am

    Bob, How many Trump supporters have died in NY, NJ, MI as a result of those horrible Governors and their assault on nursing homes knowing exactly what they were doing in pushing / keeping infected people into those places. This just in…. long-term care facilities /nursing homes are not Hospitals! Go away Bob. cozy up the latest addition of Trump-Russia collusion and the breathless reports you soaked up for 2 years. Lol buddy

    Reply
  94. Avatar
    rik cee   June 12, 2020 at 11:52 am

    The number of deaths per day is wrong and is about triple the actual numbers in the last several days. https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/96dd742462124fa0b38ddedb9b25e429?fbclid=IwAR1QjZ7Zzx8aYvNHMgd7p08KHhaXhynVkNWqx8MuncycjvBHwpkHHvJPgKM

    Reply
    • Avatar
      Chris   June 12, 2020 at 3:56 pm

      Rik, the site you reference is showing deaths by date of death. Tallahassee is showing deaths reported each day (irrespective of when the death occurred). Because there is a lag between a death occurring and that death being reported, the former metric will always be lower over the preceding one or two weeks.

      Reply
      • Avatar
        rik cee   June 17, 2020 at 2:55 pm

        What you said makes no sense. If the lag was the problem then in a week we would see a tripling of deaths. It has not happened. Deaths keep going down. No one can fake the death number.

        Reply
  95. Avatar
    rik cee   June 12, 2020 at 11:54 am

    The number of deaths per day is wrong and is about triple the actual numbers in the last several days.

    Reply
  96. Avatar
    rik cee   June 12, 2020 at 11:57 am

    Look at the Florida Covid 19 Data and Map to see the actual number of deaths

    Reply
  97. Avatar
    Tony   June 13, 2020 at 11:36 am

    This is not a Republican / Democrat issue or a Trump / Media issue. This is a Math and Statistics issue. Nobody wanted the pandemic but its here so now we need to find a way to best get through life by minimizing death while still having an economy.

    I have analyzed data from day 1.
    Roughly 25 % of all who are hospitalized die. This correlation has remained constant.

    In the beginning 25 % of all cases resulted in hospitalization. so if 100 people tested positive 25 went to the hospital and 6 died.
    now we are increasing testing and we know how to protect the most vulnerable so the hospitalization rate has dramatically decreased to 8 %. so now if 100 people test positive then 8 go to the hospital and 2 die.

    If hospitalization % goes up we are NOT protecting the vulnerable regardless of your political party. If it goes down we are.

    This is counting – Not politics

    Reply
  98. Pingback: June 13: New Cases and New Hospitalizations Charts ... - MyPPE Retail Store

  99. Avatar
    John   June 14, 2020 at 9:06 am

    “The daily numbers documenting the spread of the coronavirus in Florida have begun to show flattening trends.”

    The data seems to indicate a spike and not flattening trends. Did you look at the data or just continue with the same wrong conclusion?

    Reply
  100. Avatar
    Tara   June 14, 2020 at 12:13 pm

    Tony, you are 100% right. The numbers are tools to track the virus, and their interpretation should be done with an unbiased and careful understanding of what they mean.

    Unfortunately, though, this has become political in that Trump haters see only increases. I have family and friends in this category who are good, honest people. Yet politics brings about heated passions and for the life of me I can’t figure out why. But it is the human way. I have been guilty myself of that in the past. My Trump-hating relatives are all salivating at Florida’s skyrocketing increase in cases, along with Texas and Alabama, citing too early reopenings. None of them will see beyond that, no matter what facts are presented to them.

    As they say, torture numbers long enough and they will confess to anything.

    Reply
  101. Avatar
    Tony   June 14, 2020 at 2:13 pm

    numbers as follows
    Florida March April May June Total
    Tests 60623 321782 638944 349064 1370413
    Positive Cases 6338 27352 22473 17389 73552
    % Positive 10.45% 8.50% 3.52% 4.98% 5.37%
    Hospital 823 4972 4658 1702 12155
    % of Cases 12.99% 18.18% 20.73% 9.79% 16.53%
    Deaths 77 1213 1244 482 3016
    % of Cases 1.21% 4.43% 5.54% 2.77% 4.10%
    % of Hospital 9.36% 24.40% 26.71% 28.32% 24.81%

    The main stat that strikes me is that consistently 25 % of hospitalizations lead to death. What we have seen in May and June is that testing has surged (up 100% from april to may and on pace to be up 50 % at least in June). The hospitalization rate has been cut in half.

    Basically in June with increased testing we are getting a clearer picture of the “non-critical” people who contract the virus. We will have record number of cases (as widely reported through the media) but we are on pace for a reduction in hospitalizations and the strongly correlated death rate that has been consistent. Basically with respect to hospital capacity and death rate we are doing better than previous months.

    To just present the case spike without thorough analysis of the numbers is either lazy at best or dishonest at worst in my opinion.

    Reply
  102. Avatar
    Thomas Thompson   June 14, 2020 at 4:27 pm

    Tallahasse Reports – Florida started reopening May 4th not May 18th. May 18th was Full Phase I. Your chart makes it appear we jus started reopening on May 18th. Restaurants were open at 25% indoor and full outdoors on May 4th.

    Reply
  103. Pingback: June 12: New Cases and New Hospitalizations Charts ... - MyPPE Retail Store

  104. Avatar
    Tony   June 16, 2020 at 2:23 pm

    Tallahassee Reports – Could you add a 7 day number of tests completed on avg trend line or graph

    Reply
  105. Avatar
    Lou   June 17, 2020 at 1:22 pm

    I am a retired 75 year old critical care physician. My friends and ex-partners tell me that COVID is “just awful”. Not just old folks in the ICU but those on the regular hospital floors. Even young patients (who are moving the age peaks to the left) are miserable for 10 days to 2 weeks and, obviously transmit the disease to their family members. Main complaints are unremitting fevers, body aches, shaking chills, profound lethargy and persistent cough. The lethargy can last for a month or even two months.
    We haven’t visited our children or grandchildren in 3 months. I understand that you younger people want to get on with your lives but you have to realize that you could be jeopardizing your parents and grandparents. “Opening up” festivals, restaurants and bars is causing a second wave. At least 10 counties in Florida have exceeded their new case peaks in the past week. Yesterday we went out to a restaurant for the first time in 4 months. It was terrifying. No other patrons were wearing masks, some servers weren’t wearing them correctly, kitchen workers weren’t wearing them at all. We won’t be going out again.
    Until there is a vaccine or a cure the only way to control this epidemic is by physical distancing, wearing masks and contact tracing. I’m afraid that this will be one of the worst periods in our countries history. Please be kind to others and stay safe.

    Reply
    • Avatar
      rik cee   June 17, 2020 at 2:57 pm

      Lou, protect yourself if you are afraid. But the rest of us want to live our lives and not destroy America.

      Reply
  106. Avatar
    Shirley   June 17, 2020 at 5:54 pm

    The lockdowns were a mistake, plain and simple. They should never be repeated. For those people who want to stay home, no one is stopping you. However, you are not going to get paid to stay home.

    Reply
  107. Avatar
    Tony Hartsgrove   June 18, 2020 at 7:14 am

    Statistically speaking the lock-downs were necessary
    Statistically speaking continued lock-downs are not necessary

    We were too far behind in knowledge and testing for how contagious the virus was. Non Lock downs in march would have produced really awful results.

    This is a macro / micro issue. Micro – this is personal. when you lose a love one or know someone affected at the micro level it hurts and you cant blame someone for wanting that micro lens to be applied to everyone in the name of safety.

    Macro that is not feasible as statistically only a few will feel the pain and so there is an inevitable trade of between macro well being and micro lives. It sucks and is unfair but as i have always understood fair was not a big consideration of nature.

    Reply
  108. Avatar
    Tony   June 18, 2020 at 7:14 am

    Statistically speaking the lock-downs were necessary
    Statistically speaking continued lock-downs are not necessary

    We were too far behind in knowledge and testing for how contagious the virus was. Non Lock downs in march would have produced really awful results.

    This is a macro / micro issue. Micro – this is personal. when you lose a love one or know someone affected at the micro level it hurts and you cant blame someone for wanting that micro lens to be applied to everyone in the name of safety.

    Macro that is not feasible as statistically only a few will feel the pain and so there is an inevitable trade of between macro well being and micro lives. It sucks and is unfair but as i have always understood fair was not a big consideration of nature.

    Reply
  109. Avatar
    Tara   June 18, 2020 at 7:32 am

    Unfortunately, this virus continues on and probably will for awhile. The initial lockdown helped spread out the hospitalizations thus lightening the load on hospital beds. Had we known then what we know now, perhaps the best course of action would have been to lockdown only those more likely to suffer. By now, we would have been past the worst. But we didn’t know then. So the initial lockdown was a necessary learning experience, if nothing else. So it looks like now we will go through what New York and New Jersey went through. Interestingly, those two states had high numbers of deaths and hospitalizations for months, even though they were on lockdown. Hmmmm.

    Reply
  110. Avatar
    Pete   June 18, 2020 at 8:37 am

    Please add a 4th chart showing number of tests, or overlay testing volume on the positive case chart. Otherwise looking at data from April to June is like comparing apples and oranges

    Reply
  111. Pingback: The emerging face of COVID: Younger patients, more cases, but fewer deaths - OUTBREAK WIRE

  112. Pingback: The emerging face of COVID: Younger patients, more cases, but fewer deaths - VIRUS NEWSWIRE

  113. Pingback: Younger patients, more cases, but fewer deaths – All Sides Now

  114. Pingback: The emerging face of COVID: Younger patients, more cases, but fewer deaths - Coronavirus Class Action News

  115. Pingback: Younger patients, more cases, but fewer deaths – News Aggregation

  116. Pingback: Younger patients, more cases, but fewer deaths – News

  117. Avatar
    Jason   June 18, 2020 at 2:00 pm

    Am I missing something, Steve? The DOH daily report shows 44 hospitalizations for Leon County, but one of your charts shows 55. Why the difference?

    Outcomes for Florida residents
    Hospitalizations 44
    Deaths 8

    Reply
    • Avatar
      Staff   June 18, 2020 at 3:50 pm

      The 55 includes non-residents in Leon County hospitals.

      Reply
      • Avatar
        swarm6   June 20, 2020 at 2:33 pm

        Is the 55 cumulative?

        Reply
  118. Avatar
    Zack   June 18, 2020 at 3:53 pm

    TR: You need to mark the Phase II Reopening of 6/5 on your charts, too.

    Reply
  119. Avatar
    MikeL   June 18, 2020 at 4:06 pm

    Confirmed cases have increased as of late, could be the result of more widespread testing. “In the weeds”, however, hospitaizations and deaths are flat or,maybe,down a bit.

    Reply
  120. Avatar
    Lisa   June 18, 2020 at 5:16 pm

    I’m a 60+ year old teacher, and you’re worried about students taking the virus home. What about the students bring the virus from home to the teachers? Make the state safe, so that I don’t go to school in fear for my life everyday.

    Reply
  121. Avatar
    Paul   June 18, 2020 at 5:31 pm

    The hospitalizations have been relatively consistent since 4/8 at about 147 per day with some peaks and valleys. Florida seems to have done a pretty good job of balancing the need for people to work and the need to protect hospital ICU capacities. Florida’s governor seems to be on the defensive with the national media. In contrast, Michigan is run by a power-loving governor who is enjoying absolute power immensely and locked the state down so tightly that a rowboat could not be used. She has conducted a hundred-plus, non-Michigan interviews, and is a media darling in the running for Biden’s VP slot. Beware of those who crave power–her star seems to be dimming, but remember if you see her name on November’s ballot that the nation is potentially only a heartbeat away from huge numbers of executive orders.

    Reply
  122. Avatar
    Zack   June 18, 2020 at 5:58 pm

    Hey, I support re-opening, but I do not believe that increased testing caused the recent sky-rocketing new cases. That can be true if and only if all the tests were done on randomly selected people. In that case, yes, the more you test, the more positives you turn up. If people were tested with reasons, like showing symptoms or having had contact with sick people, then increased testing cannot be responsible for the increased cases.

    Also, DOH report here: http://ww11.doh.state.fl.us/comm/_partners/action/report_archive/state/state_reports_latest.pdf does show that both new cases AND percent positivity for new cases have tripled between 6/4 and 6/17. Spreading is speeding!

    So, my point is that we need to keep open and get back to our lives, but we also need to take precautions, like social distancing, etc., to slow down the spreading.

    Reply
  123. Avatar
    matt   June 18, 2020 at 11:52 pm

    i read half the comments, no mention of where to get raw case data. I want these simple metrics:

    dateTime
    zipcode
    positiveTest

    Bonus metrics:
    negTest
    age (seriously this is important, if theres a spike in elderly, im not going to publix at opening)

    I want to monitor for spikes in MY and loved one’s neighborhood. County doesn’t help me, its just not granular enough. The closet i can find are these two sources:
    https://services1.arcgis.com/CY1LXxl9zlJeBuRZ/arcgis/rest/services/Florida_COVID19_Case_Line_Data_NEW/FeatureServer
    https://services1.arcgis.com/CY1LXxl9zlJeBuRZ/ArcGIS/rest/services/Florida_Cases_Zips_COVID19/FeatureServer

    Anyone?

    Reply
  124. Avatar
    Florida   June 19, 2020 at 7:15 am

    If the rising cases mostly occurred in the healthy population, it doe not matter much. In fact, it can be beneficial from the population perspective. The key here is to protect the volunarable population and prevent the spike in hospitalization rate. Precautions are needed for everyone.

    Reply
  125. Avatar
    JR   June 19, 2020 at 7:22 am

    Zack is exactly right. The testing is not the primary cause of the spike in new cases. So many experts have told us the relationship between the two when testing, contact tracing, isolation, etc. is done properly. It may be counter intuitive but it is not rocket science. If you need to understand this, just look at NY’s data. As proper testing increased exponentially AND the state had the right responses in place that the CDC has been recommending for several months, the new cases have bottomed out. Come back here in a week and watch the hospitalization numbers and then in 3 weeks to see the death toll. We are in serious trouble in FL and the rest of the world seems to know it as we are making headlines everywhere. The DOH needs to forget politics and speak up!

    Reply
  126. Avatar
    William   June 19, 2020 at 8:34 am

    You have to be cognizant of the fact that hospitlizations are only a partial indicator and should not be used as the sole basis of the seriousness of the virus. The other critcal number is the number of positive cases less hospitlizations. This number indicates the number of infected people who can recover without being hospitalized. Key medical individuals such as Dr. Fauci have said to wear masks and keep distances – this will help slow down the spread and control the virus. It is beyond me how people fail to realize how important it is to wear masks and keep distancing. I track the numbers daily for Florida and I can say that we are headed in the wrong direction. WEAR A MASK and MAINTAIN A SAFE DISTANCE. Show consideration for others.

    Reply
  127. Avatar
    Tony   June 19, 2020 at 8:47 am

    This is a denominator problem. all along we have know the two numerators – hospitalizations and deaths. those we counted all of since the beginning. the thing that is changing is the denominator because we are capturing the cases with triple the testing since april. Make no mistake about it roughly the same amount of people had it in may – we just never tested them.

    Why can i say this with certainty? because the absolute value of the numerators (the number we have always known to be the full universe) is flat to down.

    Analogy is we don’t know how many cars have a check engine light on but we do know the exact amount that have had to go to service by just having stations report the data. If we did a survey of all people with a check engine light it would tell us – but that wouldn’t mean that suddenly millions of check engine lights happened – it would mean that we knew about the check engine lights there all along.

    Reply
  128. Pingback: The emerging face of COVID: Younger patients, more cases, but fewer deaths – Europe News Online

  129. Avatar
    NedS   June 19, 2020 at 1:30 pm

    The increase in cases is not explained entirely by the increase in testing. The positive test result rate in Florida is up to 8.24% (https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/testing/testing-positivity) from around 5% a couple of weeks ago.

    Reply
  130. Avatar
    Jon   June 19, 2020 at 1:59 pm

    Wait and see. New cases ticking up, hospitalizations may follow. Good news is Leon County is still fine.

    Reply
  131. Avatar
    Bob c.   June 19, 2020 at 2:03 pm

    AMAZING! I Remember a day in this country when human life was the one non-negotiable quantity. Now we accept tractor trailer loads of dead bodies as an acceptable price for a strong economy. What happened?

    Reply
    • Avatar
      Bruce   June 20, 2020 at 6:50 pm

      What? No death is acceptable but death happens. And it happens with or without the Wuhan Virus. Death also happens because of closing businesses and lost jobs. A weakened country is also an invite to be attacked by the world just like the body with a weak immune system. A dead economy leads to starvation and suicide. Bored unemployed people start riots and declare autonomous zones. Death has always been negotiable.. What do you think life insurance is?

      Reply
    • Avatar
      Thomas Thompson   June 25, 2020 at 6:54 am

      To Tallahassee Reports – Do you know if retested positive cases appear on the case chart as new cases? Example – employers ask for employees to test. Two employees test positive, wait 5 days and retest again to go back to work and are still positive…does that second positive test appear here as a new case?

      Also there was a report (Lauren Seabrook WFTV Orlando) early on that people who were tested and showed positive antibody tests (Already had the virus and recovered) were showing up on this daily case data. Is that true?

      Finally has there been any tracking/correlation of the effect of the George Floyd protests two- three weeks ago on these case numbers?

      Reply
  132. Avatar
    SGK   June 19, 2020 at 3:44 pm

    According to FDOH data level of testing has remained fairly constant in recent weeks while the % positivity has increased markedly. Hospitalizations and deaths will lag 3-6 weeks.

    Reply
  133. Avatar
    tony   June 20, 2020 at 10:49 am

    Hospitalizations lag 3 weeks?

    So you test positive and go to Hospital 3 weeks later

    Sounds logical

    Reply
  134. Avatar
    Mick   June 20, 2020 at 6:34 pm

    If Tony is right, we should see the health care system in FL crushed by the end of July. I hope he’s wrong but I fear he is right. If that happens, I suppose Faux News will blame Obama and Trump will swear the deaths are a hoax. But, all a thoughtful person will have to do is ask a Doctor or a nurse how it’s goin or try to visit a friend in the Hospital. Looks like a need to just sit back and grab a bag of popcorn.

    Reply
  135. Avatar
    joe   June 20, 2020 at 6:59 pm

    Everything can be manipulated except the hospitalization and death rate. The death rate (Covid19 caused?) is also a little iffy. What is the % increase in testing vs new cases. The new death rate. If the deaths are lower but the testing is higher, they are purposely telling you nothing and it’s good news not bad news.New cases tells you nothing without resulting numbers. Just keep the sheeple confused. The only real way to see what is happening is total deaths for all causes year over year by month. a really easy number to figure out for the “professionals” thats a number they will never show you. It will reveal the facts are against them.

    Reply
  136. Avatar
    Tara   June 21, 2020 at 6:52 am

    Mick, sit back and grab a bag of popcorn? Real nice.

    Yes, joe, I have been trying to find number of deaths per month in past years to compare them to this year, and I have not been successful. I see stories saying they are higher this year, but no official data to back that up. I can find 2017 data, but that’s it.

    Anyone have any luck with this?

    Reply
  137. Avatar
    Barry   June 21, 2020 at 9:06 am

    Does anyone know if test positive count is only counting new patients, or is retesting also counted in the numbers. My son had covid and still tested positive up to 5 weeks after symptoms ended.

    Reply
  138. Avatar
    Joe   June 21, 2020 at 11:00 am

    Just wanted to say that this website is the greatest! You will NEVER find this type of info on NY cases, probably because the NY state gov would rather control the narrative. I am putting you on my quick access…. just left from palm beach to go to NYC… you don’t know how great you have it… all restaurants in NYC still closed, most businesses still closed. Many will never recover. Can’t wait to go back to FL, and some sense of normalcy!!!!

    Reply
  139. Avatar
    Florida   June 21, 2020 at 12:40 pm

    Just wanted point out people need to wear the masks properly and use the right kind of masks. Covering just your mouth with the nose exposed or just using a piece of cloth is not enough.

    Reply
  140. Avatar
    ALAN REYNOLDS   June 21, 2020 at 1:14 pm

    The number of daily confirmed (tested) cases is way up, but the number of daily deaths (not all of which are confirmed) is down. You might think that more cases today will predict more deaths in the next few weeks, but cases have not predicted deaths in the past. It is usually wise to focus on new hospitalizations (including emergency and ICU) and new deaths rather than on cases. That is because cases are sensitive to the amount of testing and to the selectivity of who is the focus of testing (e.g., nursing homes have a lot more positive tests than a random sample of people with no symptoms) https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/96dd742462124fa0b38ddedb9b25e429

    Reply
  141. Avatar
    Seunghan Nam   June 21, 2020 at 6:42 pm

    As a new yorker, your chart is very interesting. Positivity/number of confirmed goes up. Hospitalization stable, death is stable. I will be checking this out more often. One suggestion is that there was a graph of age breakdown. If you could add that, this will be much more informative. Basically you guys are not locking down, swedish model with strict nursing home protection?

    Reply
  142. Avatar
    Tara   June 22, 2020 at 5:07 am

    Seunghan, Florida started lifting lockdown on May 4. Since then, things are slowly getting back to normal. Nursing homes were top priority since we first learned of the pandemic and still are. What I find interesting is that New York and New Jersey continued showing high numbers for months, even though they were on strict lockdown. For whatever reason, those 2 states were hit hardest first, now it seems to be moving across the country. Personally, I don’t consider Florida’s reopening as being “early” just because New York wasn’t ready. New Yorkers had a whole different experience thus far. I am originally from New York and a lot of the people I know from there are scared, afraid to leave their homes and predicting doom for the reopened states. And, sadly, it does seem to be along political lines.

    Reply
    • Avatar
      j williams   June 22, 2020 at 8:52 am

      china is who we should be mad at,how can you ever but something made in china ever again,,xi could care less about us,we should all get reparations from china for
      this virus.

      Reply
  143. Avatar
    Jo   June 22, 2020 at 7:41 am

    It would also be very informative to add the actual number of tests per day to the daily case chart — as well as a 7 day rolling average of % of positive tests. These results are being shown and picked up by media in the most negative and fearful manner possible. Fear is terrible for the immune system and other bodily functions – let’s invest in things that actually help, while showing the whole picture please!

    Reply
  144. Avatar
    Tara   June 22, 2020 at 12:24 pm

    Yes, jo, the media is just so sad these days (except for the great staff at tallahasseereports.com *smile*). I don’t think percent positive has a whole lot of meaning to it, as there are so many factors involved. But it’s a number they can point to as going up. They don’t say deaths and hospitalizations are stable, but the second one of them starts trending up, that’s all we will hear. And they will point to “too early reopening”. Interesting that we never hear that these sudden increases came 2 weeks after the nationwide protesting started. I’m not saying that caused any of this; I think we all just have to go through what the Northeast has already gone through. But my point is the media bias is so blatant it’s disturbing.

    Reply
    • Avatar
      Terry Lunsford   June 23, 2020 at 1:16 pm

      A leader from one of the biggest protesting groups in South Carolina is now admitting a lot of cases, 13 in his group alone, came from the Protesting in that State and contributing to the increase in cases. I give them credit because they are putting their protesting on hold and doing isolation for 2 weeks. We all know we can’t do effective contact tracing because noone will ask if people were participating in the protests and very few will volunteer this information.

      Reply
  145. Avatar
    Susie   June 22, 2020 at 1:19 pm

    Does anyone know why the daily new cases shown on this site does not match the number of daily cases on the Florida Covid-19 dashboard ? The dashboard seems to have much higher numbers. Which site is the most reliable?

    Reply
  146. Avatar
    Bob   June 22, 2020 at 3:01 pm

    The issue with re-opening is it takes 4-5 weeks to see the results in deaths. All positive test results are 8-13 days after infection (4-5 days of incubation, 1-3 days before seeking care/test, 3-5 day test results). Deaths typically take 7-14 days after hospitalization/testing. So all deaths are showing infections 3-4 weeks in the past as are new cases about 10 days in the past. They are reflections of past behaviors that spread the disease. Also, human psychology shows that only a percentage will venture out initially, that percentage grows as the testing (actually form before opening up for the first 10 days or so) continues to drop. By the time it starts to rise after about 2-3 weeks it is too late. The results in Florida for the next 10 days are cast in the past. If you draw the line up form the 7 day average, it shows the path for the next 10-12 days. After that it is what Floridians do today. If the same behaviors persist, the Ro over 1 will continue to drive exponential growth. It is when and how we interact that the disease is spread. Clearly, the changes in behavior that began 4-6 weeks ago in Florida have changed the virus spread.

    Reply
  147. Avatar
    Terry Lunsford   June 22, 2020 at 3:01 pm

    It really is mind-numbing to see people repeating what CNN keeps reporting without anything to back it up. Please show me one chart, just one, that shows hospitalizations are spiking to anywhere near capacity in Florida – which still includes people there for elective surgeries and some elderly who are being kept there because they can’t be isolated as well at their facilities. We were nowhere close to capacity when this whole thing ramped up in March/April, and still doing very well per the heads of the Tri-County hospitals where most of the cases are being reported. We never used these field hospitals that were stood up and my wife who is a Nurse kept getting called off due to lack of patients. Bottom line, a bunch of young, healthy people are testing positive because everyone is being encouraged to get tested, especially if they are going back to work or visit Grandma. The daily death rate is plummeting, in fact it was the lowest it’s ever been (267) yesterday since this whole thing began. The Mainstream media needs to perpetuate this thing as long as possible, or at least until Sleepy Joe can get out of the bunker

    Reply
  148. Avatar
    Tony   June 22, 2020 at 4:29 pm

    Bob – the gap stop you are looking for in the lag between cases and deaths is hospitalizations.

    In a weird way hospitalizations actually beat cases. Generally when you are hospitalized you show up and say dude i really cant breathe and then you are both hospitalized and counted as a case in the same day. Very rare that you test – are asymptomatic positive and then go to the hospital 7 days later.

    So if you show up asymptomatic and test you get your results 5 days later and generally thats it. If you show up with symptoms that put you in hospital – you get admitted.

    If you get admitted to the hospital 25 % of the time you die – that stat has been consistent from march through June. The stat that has dramatically changed is that if you test positive before june 20 % were people sick enough to be admitted and now in june only 7 % get admitted

    May – 640 k tests 22 k positive cases and 4600 Hospitalizations
    June (on track for) – 850 k tests 60 k positive cases and only 4100 Hospitalizations

    Net net less hospitalizations on triple the cases.

    The real question is why do 1 in 10 people die in new york and only .3 in 10 die in florida? Is it possible we are managing it differently?

    Reply
    • Avatar
      Ron   June 24, 2020 at 1:37 pm

      I would hope that people will go back to April and May and read some of the ignorant comments that they made now that we have the benefit of some time since this all started.

      The facts are the facts. Increased cases since Reopenings which is expected. The only question is what is our tolerance for sickness and death.

      For the head of the federal government and our country not to take the lead on this and to encourage a divide over simple Issues such as wearing a face mask is inexcusable. For him to encourage mass gatherings without masks or social distancing is akin to murder. No consideration for anything that he does not feel helps him politically.

      I believe that over the next few months you will see individuals who attended his rally’s Dying.

      In my opinion, had he made mask wearing a sign of civic pride and duty and a patriotic gesture and led the way on this, many of the consequences of non social distancing and Non face coveriNg could have been avoided.

      He is just incapable of caring

      Reply
  149. Avatar
    Tony   June 22, 2020 at 5:49 pm

    To be super clear

    in new york 71 out 1000 people with covid die
    in Florida 31 out 1000 people with covid die

    can anyone find a clip of someone from the media asking cuomo why?

    Reply
  150. Avatar
    FlameTarget   June 23, 2020 at 12:25 am

    Re: “people are dying because of lockdown so we should just “let ’em die”.

    YTD morbidity for FL, non-COVID, as of 21Jun:

    5yr avg: 9,264, 2019: 11,834, 2020: 8,221

    :=== non-Covid illness deaths are down 30% from last year, 10% from 5 year avg

    People are not dying because of lockdown.

    (source: http://www.floridahealth.gov/diseases-and-conditions/disease-reporting-and-management/disease-reporting-and-surveillance/data-and-publications/weekly-morbidity-reports/index.html)

    Reply
  151. Pingback: June 22: Tracking COVID-19 Cases, Hospitalizations, and Fatalities ... - MyPPE Retail Store

  152. Avatar
    Tara   June 23, 2020 at 5:35 am

    Another odd thing here is why was NY/NJ hit so hard right out of the gate? I’ve heard the subway and transportation in NY may have caused the early spread. But that doesn’t explain why states like Florida, California and Texas are getting so hard hit now. If these latter states weren’t hard hit out the gate, why now? California and Florida are both big tourism states with areas of dense population. Are we to believe the virus was only in the Northeast in January? And it moved across the country during the lockdown, waiting for everyone to come back out? It’s baffling to me. The only thing that makes sense is that there have always been a large number of cases, we just didn’t know it.

    My sister, who lives in St.Petersburg, was hospitalized in late January with breathing issues and flu-like symptoms. This was before coronavirus was a “thing”. She was admitted with dangerously low blood oxygen levels. They gave her numerous tests and couldn’t figure out what was wrong with her. They finally released her after 4 days with an asthma inhaler. (She does not have asthma and never used it. She’s fine now.) She was supposed to have a follow-up with her doctor a month later, but he cancelled due to testing positive for coronavirus. She recently tested for antibodies and it came back negative. I’ve heard numerous stories of married couples who both have corona symptoms, and one tests positive, the other negative.

    I think we don’t know nearly enough about this virus.

    Reply
    • Avatar
      Jon   June 23, 2020 at 11:02 am

      We arent getting hit hard. New cases doesnt really matter. Hospitalizations and deaths are still flat. And we are still showing 1/4 of the daily deaths of New York even though we have twice the population.

      Reply
  153. Avatar
    ARG   June 23, 2020 at 11:24 am

    Are these numbers for Florida or are they for Tallahassee only?

    Reply
  154. Avatar
    Terry Lunsford   June 23, 2020 at 1:11 pm

    Great point Jon, we are not getting “hit hard”, the stats that matter are hospitalizations and deaths, which are both trending down. New York’s mortality rate is so much worse because Cuomo totally mishandled the Nursing homes and was sending infected people back before they were negative. In Florida, the hospitals, and Nursing homes for that matter, are requiring two consecutive negative COVID-19 tests before sending people back. I know this because my wife is a Nurse at Holy Cross hospital in Fort Lauderdale,

    Reply
  155. Avatar
    Robert   June 24, 2020 at 10:05 am

    At what time of day do the charts update? It has not updated yet for today as it is the same as mid morning yesterday.

    Reply
  156. Avatar
    ANDREW M.   June 24, 2020 at 5:06 pm

    I heard about how awful it is becoming in Florida but so far that dog does not hunt. There are a lot of new cases confirmed but that number is a useless fact. The real numbers to watch are the averages of hospitalizations and deaths. Those numbers remain practically unchanged even as the reported cases grow daily from hundreds to thousands. If people take care in their actions to protect themselves it is not any more dangerous to be in Florida now than it was three weeks ago. Everyone needs to remain calm and continue to use safety measures getting back to normal. Cases are not increasing, they are just now being reported in realistic numbers.

    Reply
  157. Avatar
    MilMil   June 24, 2020 at 7:49 pm

    Floridians, Follow the New Yorker’s method. It is working

    Reply
  158. Avatar
    Wayne Ouellette   June 25, 2020 at 10:30 am

    Andrew, if you look again, there is an upward trend in hospitalization from June 5 to current.

    Reply
  159. Avatar
    Jane   June 25, 2020 at 11:39 am

    Can everyone please just look at what’s happening in Texas with their hospitalizations and cases?! Do you think the virus in different or the people are different in Florida? Just wait 7-14 days and unfortunately you will see the hospitalizations rate match… smh

    Reply
  160. Avatar
    ray   June 25, 2020 at 2:52 pm

    7 day average hospitalization have just gotten close to the peak during the last 100 days. Deaths are going up. While progress has been made in cutting down the number of deaths per hospitalization, there will still be a horrible spike in deaths in a week or two. Wear a mask and keep you distance so we can keep things open. Be responsible, be loving.

    Reply
  161. Avatar
    Tony   June 25, 2020 at 6:40 pm

    Texas and Florida saw the spike in cases start on roughly the same day June 15 – 10 Days ago.
    Texas saw a corresponding spike in Hospitalizations Florida has not. Just Data.

    So yes the virus does behave differently. Has been all along.

    Like how it kills 32 out of 1000 people in the south and 75 out of 100 (double) in the north-east. Just Data – not my opinion

    Seems like if the reduction of death is our top priority someone in the world would ponder why that is….

    Reply
  162. Avatar
    Tony   June 25, 2020 at 6:41 pm

    Sorry 75 out of 1000 in above comment for northeast

    Reply
  163. Avatar
    Tara   June 25, 2020 at 8:33 pm

    It is pretty funny that when the New York was tolling hundreds of deaths a day and thousands of new cases a day, for weeks on end, Cuomo was getting praise for how well he was handling it. The whole country shut down based on the numbers coming out of the Northeast. Now that we’re re-opening and seeing spikes, all of a sudden those numbers are a reflection of how badly people are handling things. We have yet to see if the Northeast spikes again after re-opening. We cannot stay shut down forever.

    Just search for viral video Jersey Shore and you will see partyers all without masks and shoulder to shoulder. This is going to happen. A lot of people are willing to take their chances with the virus rather than worry about it day and night. I am not defending that, just stating a fact. This virus needs to run its course and prayerfully sooner rather than later. Protect our elderly and those with underlying conditions.

    Reply
  164. Avatar
    Not a drinker   June 25, 2020 at 9:06 pm

    Wow…still less than half as many COVID deaths as annual alcohol deaths. And yet alcohol is still legal but we have to wear masks everywhere?!!!

    Reply
  165. Avatar
    Sigh. People still think Covid is a joke.   June 26, 2020 at 3:05 am

    How about we let those who do not want to wear masks or refuse to social distance to do what they want -as long as it is documented. And if they get sick and have to go to the hospital, they would then go to the end of the line, if there is a shortage of ICU bed (a lot of folks here don’t think that is even remotely possible). Also, they would have to be asked to pay a little bit more out of pocket just to make sure the hospital staff can be paid more for the increased number of patients.
    As an aside to “Not a drinker” who asks why alcohol is still legal while wearing masks is required, well, I am for making the Covid virus illegal also.

    Reply
    • Avatar
      Terry Lunsford   June 26, 2020 at 9:29 am

      When healthy people can tell overweight people they need to stop over-eating and exercise more, and smokers they need to stop smoking, and opiate abusers to stop taking drugs, and doing all of these other things that cause hospitalizations, then I’m fine “going to the back of the line” if I never need to be hospitalized for COVID-19. But since we know that will never happen, because it’s too mean, then I will just ignore this argument altogether.

      Reply
  166. Pingback: June 25: Tracking COVID-19 Cases, Hospitalizations, and Fatalities ... - MyPPE Retail Store

  167. Avatar
    James M   June 26, 2020 at 7:43 am

    Cases only mean more testing, more otherwise health people getting it. Hospitalizations and deaths are flat. This is the democrats trying to bring down the economy to win an election.
    I would be concerned if hospitalizations were skyrocketing, but they are clearly not.

    Reply
  168. Avatar
    Tara   June 26, 2020 at 7:59 am

    It concerns me that we may be putting too much faith in masks. It’s comforting to wear one, and it’s comforting to see others wear one, and it’s even comforting to demean those who don’t. But New York saw it’s highest levels of new cases WHILE ON LOCKDOWN. Even if you take into account the 2-week incubation period, that doesn’t explain how so many new cases kept on occurring. People were home, not going out, and the spread was continuing at higher levels than we are seeing now. I am concerned that the rest of the country just needs to go through what the Northeast did. And it’s very likely that re-opening a month later would not have mattered.

    Reply
    • Avatar
      Terry Lunsford   June 26, 2020 at 9:22 am

      Tara, very good point. The mask thing has been totally politicized like everything else in this Country since this last election. I find it so funny that these big mask proponents claim you need to wear one to be selfless and to show you care about others, even if you aren’t afraid. These are the same people that would cut you off on the highway going 80 miles an hour, or knock you down to get the cheap TV at WalMart during Black Friday.

      The charts don’t lie, the US did over 637K tests yesterday with a positive rate of 6% which is pretty consistent with what it’s been for the past month plus. In Florida there were over 52K tests yesterday, which is the second most since the beginning of this Pandemic.

      Pertaining to New York and that whole Tri-State area, noone will say this, but they are doing better now in terms of daily cases because basically they’ve built up immunity with the younger folks that are out and about. Unfortunately a lot of the folks in Nursing homes are no longer with us.

      Reply
  169. Avatar
    Tony   June 26, 2020 at 10:55 am

    Interesting in New Jersey

    Historical Percent Positive – 12.88 % – June – 1.7 % – hmmm
    Historical Death Rate – 8.74 % – June 32.55 % (next highest 11.8 %) – wow

    one third of reported cases in June are deaths in New Jersey

    We keep ranting about political things but not asking ? about stats that dont make sense to find answers.

    This virus is exposing the education system of America – Very few understand statistics

    Reply
  170. Avatar
    Kendra   June 26, 2020 at 5:19 pm

    My question is how many of the test that are positive are the faulty tests? I know several that had a faulty test through health departments that when they went to their PC their tests we actually negative.

    Reply
  171. Avatar
    Tiffany Warren   June 26, 2020 at 8:08 pm

    It would be interesting to see Phase 2 marked on the cases graph. I wonder if it corresponds to the start of the upward spike.

    Reply
    • Avatar
      zack   June 26, 2020 at 10:51 pm

      Phase 2 started on 6/5.

      Reply
      • Avatar
        Terry L   June 27, 2020 at 2:36 pm

        When did the protests start? Hmmm, not hearing much about that being a contributing factor. In South Florida, especially Broward, we never entered Phase 2, and masks have been required in Public places for almost two months now. Can’t blame this on the re-opening.

        Reply
  172. Avatar
    LILLIAN S   June 26, 2020 at 10:26 pm

    People expect hospitalizations to correspond at the same time to the number of positive tests, but that will not happen for a little while. Once they start getting really sick, then the number of people admitted to the hospital will rise. Wait a little more, and the deaths will rise.

    Reply
    • Avatar
      Terry L   June 27, 2020 at 12:07 pm

      The positive tests that are coming from sick people absolutely will correspond with hospitalizations. Those are the people that are going to the Emergency Room, and pending their breathing, either get sent home or admitted. All of the 20 and 30 somethings are getting tested because they can, or need to as a condition of employment or to visit Grandma. They will NEVER go to the hospital. That is the vast majority

      Reply
  173. Avatar
    James Young   June 27, 2020 at 3:30 am

    Note also that Florida had 10X as many positive cases reported on Friday as NY did, 21X as many as NJ, and 38X as many as MA.
    Yet, fewer deaths were reported in FL than in any of those three states.

    Reply
    • Avatar
      Terry Lunsford   June 27, 2020 at 12:04 pm

      Yep, and Florida has 9x less deaths than New York and 5x less than New Jersey. Overall, Florida is 28th in terms of deaths per million. These are the stats that really matter. Sooner all these 20 and 30 somethings get the immunity built up, naturally, the better it will be for all, including those at most risk. The body is a beautiful thing if you let it do its job. All of these drugs have made us weaker and more at risk.

      Reply
      • Avatar
        Tara   June 28, 2020 at 10:54 am

        Terry, didn’t you get the memo? ? They have given that serious investigation and have determined that the protests were the only group gatherings where no spread of the virus occurred.

        Reply
        • Avatar
          Tara   June 28, 2020 at 10:58 am

          Meant to post that to your comment above. 🙂

          Reply
  174. Avatar
    curious   June 27, 2020 at 7:10 am

    Ctl-Home, Ctl-End. w/o these keyboard shortcuts I probably would not participate in this thread. As a 70+ person the right cranial hemisphere says reasonable socialist distance and avoid crowds & wash hands. The left cranial hemisphere appreciates TR data posting, comments & remembers clearly being 20, 30, 40, 50 & 60. Those versions of ‘curious’ would all be at Panama City Beach as people have for more than 2 months disregarding all the yap

    Reply
    • Avatar
      Tara   June 28, 2020 at 11:21 am

      You go, curious! That’s what we’re talking about!

      Reply
  175. Avatar
    Stephen   June 27, 2020 at 7:15 am

    Does any graph exist plotting the hospitalization vs deaths?

    Reply
  176. Avatar
    Michael   June 27, 2020 at 8:58 am

    Please include March in your charts. Leaving March off the charts is deceptive.

    Reply
  177. Avatar
    Bob   June 27, 2020 at 11:38 am

    Lillian, there is no empirical evidence that your hypothesis is accurate. In the past, people who needed hospitalization generally were hospitalized when they were tested. The people being tested and positive now are overwhelmingly younger, healthier and, in many cases asymptomatic or mildly symptomatic. What we are seeing now is a new set of patients. The evidence says that this group will fare better in general than the people who were confirmed cases through May. We will have to wait and see whether the hospitalizations and death rates rise. So far hospitalizations are up, but not significantly, and the death rates continue to fall. In recent press conferences, hospital heads from several hospitals have emphasized that the people coming to their hospitals today are in much less severe condition than in April and May, and the need for intubation and ventilators is a fraction of what they saw during that time. Taking just a little time to read and follow what is happening on the ground would appraise you of all of these facts.

    Reply
  178. Avatar
    Momma   June 27, 2020 at 1:10 pm

    Interesting thread. FL is not 2x more populous than NY. (SMH) 21MM vs 19MM. There is a strange increase in the # of pneumonia deaths in FL—way off the charts compared to any previous year, and we are only talking 6 mos. Time will tell or s whistleblower. I will continue to be safe and prudent.

    Reply
  179. Avatar
    Tony   June 27, 2020 at 1:24 pm

    Lillian – is this what you think or based on any science. In New York and in Texas hospitalizations corresponded within a couple days of deaths. Im happy to hear of a specific numeric example to back up your claim but my gut says you just think that sounds logical.

    I push that because we time and time again are hearing what people think not what the data actually shows.

    Stephen deaths have been consistently 25 % of hospitalizations from the beginning all the way to now

    Reply
  180. Avatar
    Bob   June 27, 2020 at 1:53 pm

    Tony has been on top of this from the beginning. As of today, according to the latest statistics, Florida resident deaths have equaled 24% of Florida resident hospitalizations according to state numbers. Now that we are getting much higher sampling, and less severe patients entering the hospitals according to several of the hospitals in South Florida, it will be interesting to see whether that number remains constant going forward.

    Reply
  181. Avatar
    Tara   June 27, 2020 at 2:23 pm

    Momma, do you have a credible source you can direct us to regarding the number of pneumonia deaths in Florida in 2020?

    Reply
  182. Avatar
    Tony   June 27, 2020 at 2:29 pm

    The last 11 days the 7 day average of deaths to hospitalizations has been roughly 21 %. Some Progress

    New Jersey with an 11 % death day again More total deaths than Florida on more than 30 times less cases – I’m sure CNN is all over it though

    Reply
  183. Avatar
    Tara   June 27, 2020 at 2:39 pm

    I found 2 credible sources that say that pneumonia claim is false but has gone viral nonetheless. Sadly, because DeSantis is an open Trump supporter, all kinds of ridiculous stories are being put out there. Half the country is hoping for massive deaths in Florida. And these same people call Trump dishonorable.

    https://www.tampabay.com/news/health/2020/05/29/theres-a-new-theory-about-florida-coronavirus-and-pneumonia-deaths-read-this-first/

    https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2020/jun/03/facebook-posts/claim-florida-undercounting-covid-19-deaths-uses-f/

    Reply
  184. Avatar
    Bob   June 27, 2020 at 2:42 pm

    Tara, I suspect that Momma is alluding to a Reddit post from May by a former Obama Administration official which was debunked at the end of May. This person was comparing data inaccurately and has since taken the post down.

    Reply
  185. Avatar
    Richard Lanier   June 27, 2020 at 2:53 pm

    We need to have trendlines by Age and Population Density Demographics. The way the data is currently presented, hides disease trending by age group as well as population density. One would think it would be important to see if the current high infection rate among the youth, is migrating up the age scale. You can’t see that by lumping everything together. Another useful way to group the data would be to break out rural areas (or some population density threshold) vs City areas with high population density. The I would like to see the ages broken out by for example: Under 18, 18-24, 25-30, 30-50, 50-60, 60-70, 70-80, Above 80. I would use 18 to 24 to capture the predominate undergraduate and graduate college age group. This way we can see how the transmission is moving into the general population. As it is, by lumping everyone into the same pot, the statistics are not useful and are doing a disservice.

    Reply
  186. Avatar
    Bob   June 27, 2020 at 4:17 pm

    Richard most of the information you are asking for is on the Florida DOH website. They have a number of different cuts at the data by day, in each county. It may not be exactly what you would like to see but it has a wealth of information on age demographics, ethnic demographics, location, etc. It also lists each case in each county every day, including age. I suspect that you would get much of what you are looking for in their data. You could use this data to calculate most if not all of the trends you mention,

    Reply
  187. Avatar
    Tony   June 27, 2020 at 6:13 pm

    Florida Tests Positive Cases % Positive Hospitalizations % of Cases Deaths % of Cases % of Hospitalizations
    March 60,623 6,338 10.45% 823 12.99% 77 1.21% 9.36%
    April 321,782 27,352 8.50% 4,972 18.18% 1,213 4.43% 24.40%
    May 638,944 22,473 3.52% 4,658 20.73% 1,244 5.54% 26.71%
    June (IP) 808,176 76,382 9.45% 3,979 5.21% 955 1.25% 24.00%
    June Projected 897,973 84,869 9.45% 4,421 5.21% 1,061 1.25% 24.00%

    Reply
  188. Avatar
    Tony   June 27, 2020 at 6:18 pm

    Clunky to paste in here but see if you can follow. We are projecting to have 4421 Hospitalizations this month – down from 4658 in May.

    Pretty good since cases have gone from 22,473 to 84,869

    The data screams to me an inference that there were a ton of young asymptomatic people infected but not tested in april and may that we are just now capturing.

    Totally my inference so who knows

    Reply
  189. Avatar
    Tony   June 27, 2020 at 6:22 pm

    Florida /Tests /Positive Cases/ % Positive/ Hospitalizations/ % of Cases /Deaths /% of Cases /% of Hospitaliztions
    March /60,623 /6,338 /10.45% /823 /12.99% /77 /1.21% /9.36%
    April /321,782 /27,352 /8.50% /4,972 /18.18% /1213 /4.43% /24.40%
    May /638,944 /22,473 /3.52% /4,658 /20.73% /1,244 /5.54% /26.71%
    June (IP) /808,176 /76,382 /9.45% /3,979 /5.21% /955 /1.25% /24.00%
    June Projected /897,973 /84,869 /9.45% /4,421 /5.21% /1,061 /1.25% /24.00%

    Total 1,829,525 132,545 7.24% 14,432 10.89% 3,489 2.63% 24.18%

    Reply
  190. Avatar
    Tony   June 27, 2020 at 6:25 pm

    I have all this data broken out state by state. by region, and by state political party of governor.

    If you want it email me thartsgrove@odcbuilds.com

    Reply
  191. Avatar
    Kevin   June 28, 2020 at 9:27 am

    what I would be asking is,
    1. How many are the anti body positive or rapid test?
    2. is there any mechanism to identify duplication, or the same individual reverting multiple tests?
    3. Of the positive from rapid test, how many are asymptomatic?
    4. How are false positives or negatives reported?

    Reply
  192. Avatar
    Michael Albert   June 28, 2020 at 10:53 am

    Serious question – can you add the average age of infected ?

    Reply
  193. Avatar
    Don   June 28, 2020 at 1:52 pm

    I think the CDC trend line on deaths pretty much tells the entire story. Go to https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/covidview/index.html and scroll to the very last graph. PIC deaths are currently at 6.9% and are headed straight down. When they hit 5.9% this is no longer an epidemic and I am not sure why anyone would be discussing it. The infection rate is skyrocketing so, yes, the virus is quickly moving through the population. Even so, the death rate is going down which seems VERY, VERY good news considering its rapid spread.

    Reply
    • Avatar
      Terry Lunsford   June 28, 2020 at 7:06 pm

      This is awesome Don, thanks for sharing. I know about 46% of the Country is hoping this trend will do an about face so we can continue the death and despair all the way up to 11/4

      Reply
    • Avatar
      Steven   June 29, 2020 at 8:53 am

      Those are national numbers. The reason that they are decreasing is because the hot spots in the northeast are recovering. That doesn’t mean that there is no problem here in Florida. Also, it’s important to read what the CDC says about their death rate reporting. They use death certificates for their data, which is delayed and usually a week or two behind. In the text with the graph you mentioned, it says: “Data for recent weeks are incomplete”. In Florida, the DOH reported death rate is not declining, cases are skyrocketing and hospitalizations are increasing. This is NOT good news for us.

      Reply
  194. Avatar
    Al   June 28, 2020 at 2:54 pm

    Tony, thanks for sharing your data set via email. It’s as comprehensive as I have seen from any other source. I will be paying close attention to your comments. Here are four observations from your latest data for Florida.

    1. As we’ve been seeing, positive cases up sharply in June (~4X versus May)

    2. Hospitalizations for the month are flat to down (4,658 in May versus 4,421 projected for June). Combined with the data on positive tests, this means that the % positive that get hospitalized has dropped from 21% to 5%. There could be some lag in the hospitalization data, so worth watching closely. This trend would be consistent with the sharp drop in the median age of those testing positive who tend to experience mild symptoms and don’t require hospital intervention.

    3. Deaths projected to be slightly down from 1,244 in May to 1,061 in June. But down sharply as a % of positive cases (5.5% vs. 1.25%). Again, there could be a lag factor in deaths, but we would be seeing an increase in hospitalizations first.

    4. The percent of deaths to hospitalized down a bit (26.7% to 24%). I would have expected that number to be down further as medical treatment protocols improve, but it’s moving in the right direction

    Reply
  195. Avatar
    Pete   June 28, 2020 at 4:03 pm

    Don – deaths are a 2 – 4 week lagging indicator. Talk to me about the massive deaths in Florida between now and July 28 and tell me how this is “VERY, VERY good news. . . “

    Reply
  196. Avatar
    Tara   June 28, 2020 at 9:03 pm

    I will feel better after a few more weeks of averaging under 50 deaths a day. This huge spike started in Florida about June 12 or so. I read that on average Covid deaths take about 18 days from diagnosis. So the next few weeks will be telling.

    Reply
  197. Avatar
    Tony   June 28, 2020 at 9:32 pm

    Pete – the positive case spike began 2 weeks ago. You could make an argument for 3 weeks ago. This lag of massive deaths are they not proceeded by hospitalizations? Do people with covid in a spike not check into a hospital but spontaneously combust in 14 to 28 days? Is it possible that the Florida Govt has someone who understands statistics on staff and that person would sound the alarm if 5 to 10 times the death was imminent? After 2 weeks the hospitals would be overwhelmed no.

    Thats what your comment implies that regardless of hospitalizations and a governor who actually protects the vulnerable – we are bracing for 5 to 10 times the death (the lagging corresponding deaths you speak of)

    As I have commented before – just fear mongering a lagging death surge without data is either lazy with best intentions or dishonest with worst intentions.

    BTW why isn’t it good news that the hospitalization and death rate have plummeted. Why wouldn’t any AMERICAN celebrate that?

    Reply
  198. Avatar
    Tony   June 28, 2020 at 9:35 pm

    Al – Spot on analysis. The other glaring thing from the data is this virus is being handled very differently by state in by region. The data suggests to me that some states are either playing games with reporting or grossly mismanaging the virus. I believe its the former. There is no way that 30 percent of people are dying from this in June in New Jersey and all of a sudden only 1 % of people are testing positive. They are pulling a china and not reporting cases.

    Reply
  199. Avatar
    Phil Murray   June 29, 2020 at 4:10 am

    Anyone that believes a word the vile sociopath in our Whitehouse says is a fool.

    Anyone that believes a word the Fox / Pravda / tRump TV channel says is a fool. They used to report the baseball scores quite accurately; but nothing else.

    “Polly want a cracker?”

    Reply
    • Avatar
      Tara   June 29, 2020 at 7:49 am

      Phil, we try to keep things here based on data, and not an area to spew political hatred towards each other. We know we can’t stop you, but please, there are tons of places on the Internet to engage in your rhetoric. These are trying times for all of us. Be kind.

      Reply
  200. Avatar
    Tony   June 29, 2020 at 7:20 am

    i don’t know man – the data (not news channels) say that your twice as likely to die in a democratic led state then a Republican from the virus – not sure how that relates to Trump.

    Calmer than you are…

    Reply
  201. Avatar
    Pete   June 29, 2020 at 8:00 am

    Tony – Hospitalizations are ticking up. Your words can’t change the data. First people test positive, then they go into the hospital. Admittedly, treatments are getting better, so I hope and pray the deaths don’t skyrocket. But the hospitalizations are inevitable. Again, check in with me at the end of July and we can see whether your hopeful spin is right. I hope so – my relatives live in Florida – but I had the same hope in New York in March.

    Tick Tick Tick . . . .

    Reply
  202. Avatar
    Tara   June 29, 2020 at 8:27 am

    The only thing that gives some hope is that it doesn’t really make sense that people test positive and then go to the hospital. It seems to me that people feel very sick, go to the hospital, and are tested positive. The other positives are asymptomatics, or mild.

    They have a free, no-appointment-necessary testing site set up at Florida Central University. When I went by, there were at least 200 cars waiting for testing. I can’t imagine anyone on that line was feeling sick. Very rarely are people tested positive while feeling good, then become so sick they need to be hospitalized.

    Reply
  203. Avatar
    Andy   June 29, 2020 at 8:56 am

    Thank you to all posts that provide clarity and facts on this issue. It’s important to share this information. I’m a little wacky (OK. crazy) but I believe we are in a cultural, civil war. The truth needs to be spread across the state.

    Reply
  204. Avatar
    Tony   June 29, 2020 at 9:22 am

    Ticking up? Cases have gone up by 300 % – 22 k to 90 k and hospitalizations are net down from 4600 to 4400. Statistically that is unbelievably good news for Florida.

    To be clear I’m a Republican who thinks trump is an absolute douche. His communications and handling of the pandemic make him look like maybe the stupidest president i can remember. I also think the left media are only reporting (if not rooting for) bad news because of their absolute hatred for Trump. The feud is at Americas’s expense and both sides are behaving like children.

    I don’t report the hospitalization data as a spin – its the actual data and realistically the one thing that gives me hope. I can assure you if the data was rising at the same path as the cases I would be for shutting the whole thing down again. In fact im on record earlier stating i believe that shutting down earlier was the right call as we needed time to get in front of this virus (which is what the data is suggesting happened). The data suggests New York might have done better if Desantis was Governor in March. All Im saying is applying March New York Data to Florida in June without changing the variables of – Governor, testing, hospital capacity, treatment knowledge, who is vulnerable knowledge is foolish. If I’m wrong and hospitalizations and then deaths rise ill admit it and we will ALL be in trouble.

    Your comments almost read like you want the hospitalizations to go up. My inference is you are almost rooting for it. Why? Will that exonerate your hatred for the president even if it means death? I cannot fathom the irony of rooting for more deaths so that you can hang those deaths over the president in “the name of those people who died”

    Reply
  205. Avatar
    Bob   June 29, 2020 at 10:07 am

    Things that make you go Hmmmm! Fauci said yesterday in talking about his grades for states in managing the pandemic that he would single out New York for doing “really well”.

    Reply
    • Avatar
      Disgusted   June 29, 2020 at 3:33 pm

      That comment alone from Fauci proves that his reasoning ability leaves much to be desired and that is not to be trusted!

      Reply
  206. Avatar
    doug moore   June 29, 2020 at 10:17 am

    why the numbers are higher then this chart, even for month old data?
    https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/96dd742462124fa0b38ddedb9b25e429

    Reply
    • Avatar
      Aaron   June 29, 2020 at 10:57 am

      This is a good and fair question and is part of what causes confusion and allows people to manipulate numbers. The difference lies in tracking when the death was reported vs. when the death occurred. The chart on this page is when deaths are reported while the link you reference shows when the death occurred. For an example you will see on these charts the dips that happen on the weekends. Logically there are not less people that die on these days, but instead there are less people doing clerical/administrative work on these days. The deaths still get counted when they are reported on Monday or Tuesday (hence those mini spikes). The link you provide would instead back date those deaths to the weekend when they happened. You will notice that the DOH dashboard has a much smoother line which corresponds nicely to the rolling 7 day average line on this page.

      Reply
  207. Avatar
    Tony   June 29, 2020 at 10:37 am

    Doug – I don’t follow?

    Reply
    • Avatar
      doug moore   June 29, 2020 at 3:37 pm

      the reply is under my avatar name (FWI)

      the dashboard i posted has an average death of 28-29 / day
      https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/96dd742462124fa0b38ddedb9b25e429

      the chart above has an average death count of 35 / day

      why are they different?

      Reply
      • Avatar
        Staff   June 29, 2020 at 3:59 pm

        Our data is based on the date the deaths are reported. The state graph shows fatalities by date of death. In other words a death could occur on June 21 and not be reported until June 27.

        Reply
  208. Avatar
    Terry Lunsford   June 29, 2020 at 12:23 pm

    On track for yet another sub 300 death tally for US today – far less than people dying from heart disease and cancer. It boggles the mind the amount of people that are actually rooting for more people to die from COVID-19. At the end of the day isn’t that the stat that matters most. Can you only imagine the conversation we would be having if CNN had a live ticker for everyone that was shot on a daily basis in our inner cities. Would really love to keep politics out of a conversation about people dying, but that’s what it’s come to I guess.

    Reply
  209. Avatar
    Todd   June 29, 2020 at 2:28 pm

    It seems to me at least, Cuomo has started a pretty nasty spat with Florida and other states. At a time when NY’s active cases per capita is 3-4 times higher than Florida’s he proclaims that Floridians are a risk to his state. Sure we might be equal to NYs cases in 3-4 weeks, but I think we’ll likely not surpass them by much, and would therefore not be a threat. Any decent leader would try to bring people together, not push them apart. DeSantis has been very good in my opinion. (I’m a registered Dem) Keep the nursing homes, etc insulated, and minimize the spread without killing jobs. If we’re going to requires masks when going into stores, also require stores to have a hand sanitizer station customers should use when going in.

    Reply
  210. Avatar
    Tony   June 29, 2020 at 3:04 pm

    When does the magical lagging death phenomena hit the North East (and specifically New Jersey). If they trail within 2 to 3 weeks automatically – as is being widely assumed then the deaths should be averaging less than 10 a day. The automatic lag happens both ways right?

    Reply
  211. Avatar
    Tara   June 29, 2020 at 6:45 pm

    We will have to see how the next few weeks play out. I think we are definitely looking at something of an increase in deaths, if we judge by the weekend numbers. Tuesday is usually the biggest number and this week Florida has had higher than usual weekend numbers. BUT, still not that high.

    If the media in general can praise Cuomo as being THE good governor that handled it all so well, then it is all so pathetic.

    The world overall has a 4.8% death rate vs. positive Covid cases. 10,388,876 cases with 507,355 deaths

    The United States overall has 4.8% death rate vs. positive Covid cases. 2,675,052 cases with 128,752 deaths.

    New York has 417,318 cases with 31,496 deaths. That’s a death rate of 7.5%.

    And thank you, Tony, for putting these numbers in perspective and sharing them with us.

    Reply
  212. Avatar
    TomTerrific   June 29, 2020 at 11:54 pm

    I’m sure glad I don’t live in Florida! 1) it’s a COVID death zone 2) it seems to be populated with bat sh$t nuts republicans. 3) I’ve been to Miami in august, never going back to hell again.

    Reply
  213. Avatar
    Seunghan Nam   June 30, 2020 at 1:46 am

    If in two weeks, no spike in death occurs, this lockdown is definitely over.

    Reply
  214. Avatar
    Tony   June 30, 2020 at 7:24 am

    To pile on to the New York discussion. New York has 31, 496 deaths – 7.5 % Death rate (population 19 million). All 24 Republican governed states combined have 33,944 deaths – 3.3 Death rate (population 145 million). According to MATH if you contract covid your twice as likely to die from it in new york than if you live in a republican governed state.

    That is alarming.

    Reply
  215. Avatar
    Steven   June 30, 2020 at 8:37 am

    If you selectively choose which data you present you can make it say whatever you want. Go to worldometer and look at the graphs for New York. People are praising Cuomo because he was a good leader under pressure and he brought results. We used to all talk about “flattening the curve” (now nobody cares). The number of new cases in New York has not just gone flat it has taken a nosedive! Number of new deaths is the same, immensely down. Compare those graphs to the ones on this page.

    New York had an explosion of cases and deaths at the beginning of the crisis when everyone was still trying to figure out the best way to deal with it. They made mistakes (especially with nursing homes) which led to a higher death rate, but they have managed to get the virus under control.

    Tony, what does it matter if there is only a 3.3% death rate in Republican states? That translates into over 4 million deaths in those Republican states if the virus continues to run rampant!! I’d much rather live in a state with a higher percentage rate of deaths to infections but a vastly lower total number because the virus has been contained! Unfortunately, here in Florida we seemed resigned to just let whatever happens, happen.

    Reply
  216. Avatar
    Garrett   June 30, 2020 at 9:06 am

    Including a demographics breakout would be helpful as well. Age and race are included in the patient order entry information and available

    Reply
  217. Avatar
    Tony   June 30, 2020 at 9:37 am

    Wait that was just New York.

    If you count The democratic states together (176 million population) at 6 percent death rate thats 10.5 million deaths (2.5 times the republican states) – Same logic you used

    New York has had 937 deaths in June. Florida has had 1012. Solid of New York to join Humanity as previous to that the count was 30,000 to 2,000. Thats 15 times (same population)

    I submit the only measure that matters is those that ultimately loose their lives. Democrats have switched to cases because the death toll is horribly not a good “story” for them

    The data suggests New York will see a skyrocketing of cases in late July to August when they open up and the younger people with no symptoms get tested. Their death rate will plummet as well if they don’t take a flame thrower to the nursing homes like they did in March and April.

    Reply
    • Avatar
      John   June 30, 2020 at 10:04 am

      Some people also have lasting health issues, so they matter too, but I will submit that it doesnt matter where you live or who your governor is. Politicians can not stop viruses. They can advise people what to do, but they are going on minimal information and rely on us to do it. If youre sick, dont infect others. Beyond that, nothing we can do but develop treatments. Which politicians can do either.

      Reply
    • Avatar
      Dave   June 30, 2020 at 12:21 pm

      People linger on ventilators for quite some time (about 3-4 weeks) before they die so the spike in deaths will come soon, assuming your governor is accurately reporting which is questionable. Dexamethasone increases your chance of survival by 30% once you are on a ventilator, raising your chances of making it from around 12% to 16% once you are intubated. Steroids work by blocking the final “cytokine storm” that happens toward the end so it will probably not help much beforehand. Remdesivir shortens your say in the hospital but does not improve your chances of survival, not to mention the supply is short and it costs around $4,000.00 per person. I’m from New York so I know the treat you guys are in for… good luck!!! Please go to the bar and kiss your grandmother for me… they deserve to reap the rewards of your arrogance.

      Reply
    • Avatar
      Steven   June 30, 2020 at 5:43 pm

      But that’s only if everyone gets the virus. If they have it under control and the spread stops, then the deaths will stop. If the total cases stay down, then deaths will stay down, even if the percentage is higher.

      Also, lower cases = lower deaths. The way to prevent deaths is to slow the spread of the virus

      Reply
  218. Avatar
    Tara   June 30, 2020 at 12:41 pm

    New York has it under control because they just reopened. If states with areas of large population like Florida and Texas and California have numbers that skyrocketed after reopening, why would you think that won’t happen in New York and New Jersey? Because they have it all under control? Most likely, we’ll see spikes there as well, and hopefully it will be mostly mild cases.

    The reason people are mentioning politics is because our power-abusing media keeps praising Cuomo, while disparaging DeSantis.

    And DeSantis, by the way, aggressively targeted nursing home protection from the beginning. It was a no-brainer.

    Reply
  219. Avatar
    Tony   June 30, 2020 at 1:29 pm

    Don’t let Data get in the way of a good “story” of doom.

    If Biden wins in November can we have our country back?

    Reply
  220. Avatar
    Bob   June 30, 2020 at 2:00 pm

    Lots of unsubstantiated claims and predictions from people clearly hoping for the worst here in the last few days. Thankfully there are a few, like Tony, who continue to bring facts to the forum.

    Reply
    • Avatar
      Al   June 30, 2020 at 2:53 pm

      Right on

      Reply
  221. Avatar
    Tony   June 30, 2020 at 5:13 pm

    New York City Department of Health added a note to their data update- “On June 30, the count of New Yorkers who have died of COVID-19 increased by 692. Most of that increase is due to new information we received from the NYS Department of Health about city residents who died outside the city. The vast majority of these deaths occurred more than three weeks ago.” Worldometer has adjusted New York State history accordingly.

    Cuomo is a clown. He cant collect data – let alone manage a pandemic

    Reply
  222. Avatar
    Steven   June 30, 2020 at 5:40 pm

    I wasn’t aware that Cuomo was the one out collecting data. But at least you aren’t biased in the way you present the data {sarcasm}. Most of what you talk about is Republican vs. Democrat.

    A three week delay on some death data is not a big deal. The CDC states up front that their data on Covid deaths is several weeks behind other sources because they only rely on death certificates. This sounds like something similar.

    Please lay off the partisan political bashing. We all have to work together if we are going to get through this.

    Reply
    • Avatar
      sue   July 3, 2020 at 9:58 pm

      Well said. Thank you Steven.
      Please lay off the partisan political bashing. We all have to work together if we are going to get through this.

      Reply
  223. Avatar
    Bob   June 30, 2020 at 6:26 pm

    Steven, I guess if a Governor isn’t doing something himself, he isn’t responsible for it? Pray tell what results you were praising him for then in an earlier post, what did he personally do to fix the problem besides make a decision to send covid positive patients into nursing homes? Also, please remember that next time there is any kind of issue in Florida. It won’t be DeSantis’ fault if he is not personally doing whatever it is. Of course, it doesn’t really matter, because according to you DeSantis is just resigned to letting whatever happen, happen, right? Thanks for being completely objective and non partisan.

    Reply
    • Avatar
      Steven   June 30, 2020 at 6:57 pm

      Holding a governor accountable for a data reporting issue and calling him a clown is not the same as holding a governor accountable for their public actions and deeds in response to the pandemic. Presidents, governors and mayors don’t carry out the day to day details of getting things done, but they are responsible for providing leadership, and many people trust and follow what they suggest. When a leader chooses to encourage or discourage suggestions given by health officials, they are responsible for their words and actions. Cuomo encouraged taking the virus seriously, New Yorkers listened and slowed the spread. DeSantis did not encourage taking it seriously (and still isn’t), Floridians listened and now we are seeing the result in increased cases and hospitalizations.

      It’s also strange that you automatically assume I’m being partisan by commending Cuomo. I have always considered myself conservative politically, but now find myself disagreeing with conservative politicians and individuals for one simple reason: they aren’t listening to health officials and they are ignoring the data. Nobody is completely objective, but I’m trying my best to put aside political considerations when looking at this issue and making decisions for myself and my family.

      Reply
  224. Avatar
    Bob   June 30, 2020 at 7:24 pm

    Steven do you know the meaning of the word partisan? It means supportive of a party, idea or person, that’s all. Your comments have suggested support for Cuomo and lack thereof for DeSantis. I’m just pointing out that you have accused a poster of something you have done. Can’t have it both ways. By the way, I don’t find anything wrong with partisan comments. Everyone has a right to their opinion

    Reply
    • Avatar
      Steven   June 30, 2020 at 9:18 pm

      Hi Bob. Yes, I do know the meaning of the word. Partisan as a noun means a “strong”, or “firm adherent” to a party, idea or person. Partisan as an adjective (how both you and I used it) is described as Merriam-Webster as “feeling, showing, or deriving from strong and sometimes blind adherence to a particular party, faction, cause, or person”.

      Saying that somebody did a good job at something is not partisan, it’s just making a statement. Repeatedly taking the Republican or Democratic side of an issue in spite of evidence is partisan. It is the major thing that is tearing our country apart and we need to get past it if we are going to move forward as a country.

      Reply
  225. Avatar
    Tony   June 30, 2020 at 9:34 pm

    Steven – Your right to call me out on the generalizing democrats as part of my comments. Its a fair critcism. The Pete comment of tick, tick, tick (hoping for deaths) and the Dave taunting that Floridians should get a death they deserve got me fired up and its not fair to lump them in with democrats instead of just evil unhappy people. I apologize to democrats but not to dave and pete (whatever party they may be).

    I am confused at the notion that we have this noble choice to all stay home and destroy the economy regardless of data or push the economy and recklessly kill people. I will support being cautious when the data suggests it but in all other matters we have a responsibility to all help each other by doing our part in the economy.

    This virus kills certain people very well (thank goodness not as well since we have learned in the last months) and others it is relatively harmless. I wholeheartedly reject the notion that we cant use that critical piece of information to do our best to minimize death while still focusing on the economy. I believe the answer to that is in data.

    In the last 14 days our 7 day case number has gone from 2000 to 7000 while 7 day hospitalizations has went from 150 to 180. Now I hurt for anyone who has to go to the hospital and the data says that the 30 extra hospitalizations are going to = 1 more death per 7 days. It’s just not enough to stir panic. Easy to say im a killer and i dont care about that extra death per day and someone is entitled to that opinion (doesnt make either of us right just makes us each have an opinion). I just believe in a society of 330 million there are just hundreds of “greater good” decisions that have to be made daily.

    The comments on New York are just my frustration with the lack of accountability to the numbers. It seems to me that the media and left judge cuomo by his intentions and desantis by his actions and the data overwhelmingly suggests desantis outperformed cuomo. Literally not one measure that suggests otherwise statistically.

    The narrative that all governors are the same and the only thing anyone can do is be safe is childish. Wars are fought and won with strategy and its clear that we have 50 different strategies going on and some are doing better than others.

    Reply
  226. Avatar
    Tara   June 30, 2020 at 10:24 pm

    I will say this one (more?) time and move on.

    It is the media inflaming us and all for profit. There has been a blatant abuse of power that includes fear mongering, race baiting, empowering people to mock and demean those whose opinions differ, a denial of civil rights by establishing a new freedom of speech culture that silences entire demographics, and last but not least, a forceful effort to influence an election.

    It is very easy to go along with this when it coincides with your opinion. But what about the next time, or the time after, when it doesn’t?

    Reply
  227. Avatar
    Tony   July 1, 2020 at 7:03 am

    Steven – I forgot one other point. On the Republican / Democratic front – there is a glaring difference in the data as to how republican states are doing vs democrat. If saving lives is the goal I cant understand why all americans dont want to know why that is. why the media doesnt want to know why that is. My suspicion from watching this unfold is if it was the other way around there wouldnt be anything else we would talk about. thats wrong.

    Reply
  228. Avatar
    Bob   July 1, 2020 at 8:11 am

    Steven I will take your word that you are not partisan because your feelings aren’t strong enough even though your words clearly support one side and criticize the other. Hope that makes you feel better-feelings seem important to you.

    Reply
  229. Avatar
    Pete   July 1, 2020 at 8:16 am

    Tony – you are right to call me out on the arrogance of my “Tick Tick Tick” comment. It was borne out the frustration of the continual rationalization of data to deny very simple actions we can take to halt the spread. It was not written out of a hope people would die. It was written to scare people into taking actions that will save their lives. Wear a mask. Wash your hands. Avoid gatherings of people indoors.

    I watched in vain hope as the virus ticked up in NY, and state officials put off making tough decisions, before the data and the virus showed that ignoring common sense health guidelines leads to hospitalizations and death. I had an Aunt in PA die because of this virus. And now, with relatives in Florida, I read the Tonys and Taras split hairs and parse the data and rationalize how this thing can’t bring down our economy and its not as bad as the liberals and MSM are saying.

    The virus is winning. It beat arrogant Cuomo in NYC, and it will beat arrogant DeSantis. No amount of your ratio comparisons can stop the inevitable spread and the inevitable hospitalizations and the inevitable deaths coming. Will you feel vindicated because Florida’s death rate is lower than New York’s? I won’t, because people like you and DeSantis are failing to help people protect themselves. Fewer could die with common sense measures that have become politicized. Wear a mask. Wash your hands. Avoid gatherings.

    And pray. Pray for the souls taken, and for the souls that will be taken because of political posturing and an unwillingness to honestly deal with the data in front of us.

    Reply
  230. Avatar
    Tony   July 1, 2020 at 8:37 am

    Pete – That’s a fair point.

    My hope is that the difference in data trend from New York to Florida (and there is definitely a difference) is precisely because Desantis is protecting people. The difference in nursing home treatment is an actual thing that happened – not a political dream of the republicans. Time and Data will tell for sure and I hope im right for the sake of overall well being of floridians. We could use some good news – all of us.

    Reply
  231. Avatar
    Bob   July 1, 2020 at 9:08 am

    Steven, after thinking about it a little more, I am very careful not to get into silly arguments on the internet, mostly because they never solve anything, so I apologize for calling you out-you have your opinions, and as I said in a prior post, that is certainly your right. I do have an honest question for you, however. I recognize that how you do things is important, but only important if if leads to accomplishing something. I sincerely do not understand the love for Cuomo’s leadership and performance related to the pandemic. As far as DeSantis is concerned, so far, I believe his results have been very good. Time will tell for both of them because this pandemic is far from over.

    Getting back to Cuomo, I realize that he was dealt a more difficult hand than most. If you look at the results, I consider them to be abysmal. For me, the only thing that really matters is deaths. I don’t know how anyone can say that Cuomo did a good job in this regard. In addition, we will never be able to calculate the financial and human toll that his nearly four month shutdown has caused. But it is staggering, many believe far in excess of any toll directly resulting from the virus. You can debate that, but anecdotally the stories about the devastation to businesses and families from the extended lockdown are heartbreaking and lasting.

    At this point, the deaths and lockdown tolls in Florida are disheartening, but a small fraction of what has happened in New York. Many argue that Florida has not seen the worst yet, but so far facts do not show that deaths are going to get anywhere close to New York levels. Remember, at one point New York was losing close to 800 people per day! As I said earlier, time will tell, but as Tony’s facts and statistics consistently indicate, Florida is not headed in that direction now. If that changes in the future, I will be the first to demand other actions from DeSantis, I hope it does not come to that.

    Reply
    • Avatar
      Tara   July 1, 2020 at 10:20 am

      Pete, you are correct in that I hope this thing does not result in a big spike in deaths and perhaps I am putting my hopes above the inevitable outcome. I wait every day with bated breath for the Florida numbers to come out. This is an extremely stressful way to live and it’s been going on for months.

      Reply
  232. Avatar
    Steven   July 1, 2020 at 11:03 am

    Tony and Bob, I respect you both for being willing to apologize about previous comments. That is not something that happens often in Internet discussions! I also apologize for my sarcastic comment in response to one of Tony’s post. As Pete mentioned a few comments previous, I am also frustrated by what I see as ignoring dangerous trends, but that is no excuse for taking out my frustrations on you.

    I truly do attempt to look at these things objectively. Lest you think that I only praise one side: I can happily agree that DeSantis did a very good job protecting our nursing homes from Covid (as Tara mentioned previously). It is one thing that has kept our death rate down. Cuomo did a miserable job at that.

    In order to direct the conversation away from political divisions, I wonder if any of you have been comparing our data to other countries and regions around the world? For instance, in Europe (excluding Russia, because who trusts them anyway, right!) they only had 5,827 cases. That is with a population of 600 million (again excluding Russia)! The question is, how can an entire continent have fewer new cases in one day than the state of FL which only has 21 million people? The answer is that they took the virus seriously, took strong measures against it and got control of it. Our response to this virus should not be dictated by political leanings, but by what is being proven to work against it!

    It’s been previously said here that the number of deaths is the most important statistic and the nearly flat (not declining, but flat) average of daily deaths show that there is nothing to worry about. One thing that hasn’t been talked about here is number of those who have recovered compared to number who have died. This means those who have finished being sick and we see how it ended for them. In FL we are at a 12.7% rate (27,423 no longer active cases with 3,505 deaths). That is an outrageously high rate! Obviously, that won’t continue, but what if we take an outrageously low number going forward and call it a 1% death rate. That means 1 out of every 100 people will die as the virus spreads through the state. For every 100 people you know (relatives, friends, coworkers) 1 of them will die. Would you like to watch the suffering of those families knowing that you could have done something to prevent it? Will you take responsibility for those lives if you are not actively doing something to prevent it?

    I agree that the media is politicizing this and stirring people up into a fervor. We should stop listening to the media and instead look at the data and think for ourselves. There is a middle ground between complete lockdown and letting everything open up blindly. Irregardless of what our political leaders and the media are saying, the data is weighted heavily that we should be extremely cautious about this NOW. Rising cases will equal rising deaths. If we wait until the deaths are increasing, it will already be too late. We each have a personal responsibility to avoid gatherings, wear a mask, social distance and urge others to do the same. For me, it’s worth the temporary discomfort and inconvenience in order to save lives.

    Reply
  233. Avatar
    Tony   July 1, 2020 at 11:16 am

    I went down the rabbit hole of looking at other countries but really hard to trust the data we are getting. Italy for instance has a death rate of like 14 %. Statistically that seems improbable to me. My inference (basically my opinion) is that they are only testing the people who show symptoms. Getting a handle on political structure is important if comparing countries as all are not taking the same approach to who they test or how they report the results.

    I think that is also what is happening in North East and Mid Atlantic States is an emphasis on testing 1st responders and people with symptoms. I am willing to admit that I am totally guessing but if you focus your efforts on only testing symptomatic and 1st responders you will see low cases and a high death rate as you will not be capturing the vast amount of asymptomatic cases. Conversely if you have the capacity or strategy (or just by accident because work places require it) to expand the testing to asymptomatic testing – you will see rise in cases and lower death rate.

    In my head that seems super logical. In time I may be exposed as just pumping sunshine up every bodies you know what.

    Reply
  234. Avatar
    Bob   July 1, 2020 at 12:23 pm

    Steven, I agree with many of your points, we should all take personal responsibility to try to stem the rise of new cases, I don’t know how anyone can disagree with that. Wearing masks in public, social distancing, etc. should not be debated. I also think local officials need to be at the forefront of regulating behavior to the extent they are legally able, because different areas of Florida are in very different places with this issue.

    I share Tony’s view that comparing the US to other countries is difficult. As you said, Russia (as well as a number of other countries) cannot be believed. I have a very close friend in Milan and another in the Lake Como area, and both of them have told me repeatedly that the numbers coming from Italy from day one were not to be believed, mostly because local officials counted and estimated however they saw fit, so what you got, and are still getting is inconsistent. Also in Milan, anyone can get tested, in the Lake Como area, even today only those in the hospital are tested, so it is difficult to compare. Anecdotal, but interesting enough to make me skeptical.

    As far as recoveries are concerned, most areas of Florida as I understand it don’t even count cases recovered. If I am wrong about that, please point me to the data, because I have not seen consistent data that is reliable, if it is there I am really interested in seeing it.

    I am concerned about the rise in cases. I do believe that there are many reasons for it, but clearly one is increased community transmission. On the flip side, the heads of hospitals in Miami Dade, Broward, and Orange counties, as well as those in the Pensacola area have all said in recent days that those being hospitalized with Covid recently are very different patients than they saw in March, April and early May. They are younger, less severe, and much less likely to need admittance to ICUs. In addition, the use of ventilators is a fraction of what it was early on and they have learned to treat patients much more effectively than before. They have all said in addition, that many of the positive tests are from asymptomatic patients. All of that said, I am still concerned about the spike in numbers, because it threatens increase spread. I am just not as convinced that the death rate is going to automatically spike because of the cases. I hope that is true, we shall see.

    In the meantime, I hope this spike is a wakeup call and people start acting more responsibly to get the new cases under control.

    Reply
  235. Avatar
    N.C.   July 1, 2020 at 12:36 pm

    Amazing to see this turn into reasonable conversation and discussions. Thanks to all who are making useful comments and helping people see different perspectives.

    Reply
  236. Avatar
    Tara   July 1, 2020 at 1:04 pm

    I agree, Bob, and I am a little concerned about the upward trend in hospitalizations. Stands to reason, even with milder cases, that trend will eventually lead to an increase in death rate, however slight or not slight.

    Reply
  237. Pingback: July 1: Tracking Florida COVID-19 Cases, Hospitalizations, and ... - MyPPE Retail Store

  238. Avatar
    Tara   July 2, 2020 at 11:40 am

    Today’s numbers — Ouch!

    Reply
  239. Avatar
    Bob   July 2, 2020 at 12:19 pm

    Especially the hospitalization number, troubling.

    Reply
  240. Avatar
    doug moore   July 2, 2020 at 12:37 pm

    why did they stop showing the DEATHS chart here unless to hide the fact that deaths are flatlined? they want to scare the behigies (sp?) out of you to get you to comply.
    https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/96dd742462124fa0b38ddedb9b25e429

    Reply
  241. Avatar
    Tony   July 2, 2020 at 1:19 pm

    Yeah the 7 day avg on hospitalizations went from 180 to 197. Not good news for sure.

    the percentages of death rate and hospitalization rate are super small compared to other states but the upward trend is tough. these 2 weeks are critical.

    Reply
  242. Avatar
    DeepStateProvacatuer   July 2, 2020 at 1:25 pm

    July 1: 10K+

    June 25: 5,004

    June 18: 3,207

    June 11: 1,698

    We are roughly doubling every week, though eventually we will find a place where there won’t be enough tests to keep up. (The President will be pleased!) Or respiratory technicians. Or nurses. In a month our hospitals will look like those in Italy with every room, corridor, and bathroom stall filled with a person struggling to breathe.

    One wonders if Pissy Pants DeSantis will admit that his brown nosed decision to re-open was poorly conceived, and how his rant about how wrong the media was about how exponential growth works stunk of ignorance and indeed, ‘hoping it will all just go away’. It seems likely that the belief that there is a 14 day window from exposure to symptoms is off, and it may be closer to a month.

    The important thing for our ‘leaders’ to try to get into their think skulls is that even if we totally locked down again tomorrow, there is *at least* two full weeks of these kinds of increases *already baked in*. People that get exposed today, won’t start showing symptoms for two weeks (or more), those that are susceptible, won’t start going to the hospital for three weeks (or more), those that die, won’t start dying for over a month. Well, they might start dying earlier, because they won’t be able to take up an ICU room for a week, because there will be none available when they need one.

    This was all completely predictable. The virus cares not for political ideology; it cares not for whether or not you think your freedumbs are being imposed on for the inconvenience of wearing a mask, or going without having your nails done. No one could have prevented the pandemic, but as Americans we have failed to take simple, straightforward steps that could prevent the upcoming catastrophe. But we didn’t. And lots of us, including many on this site, actively took offense at being told that application of the scientific method could help alleviate suffering, reduce illnesses and deaths, and instead chanted moronic platitudes about the Constitution. Europe is opening back up, but are closing entrance to US visitors due to our haphazard (or non-existent) ‘handling’ of the virus.

    Our national, and state wide response, is a complete embarrassment and *that* can be laid plainly at the feet of Republican Presidents, Governors, and voters, who somehow came to conflate the dispassionate, known actions of a virus with conspiracies involving Bill Gates, George Soros, the lamestream media involvement in a hoax, and somehow coming to believe that vilifying infectious disease specialists would somehow ‘make it all go away’.

    See you next week!

    Reply
    • Avatar
      Steven   July 2, 2020 at 2:02 pm

      DeepState, I share some of your frustrations, but name-calling and throwing insults is disrespectful and counterproductive. Over the past few days, we’ve actually come to a place of calm discussion in these comments, even among people with differing views (feel free to scroll up and read through the comments). Inflammatory statements and harsh condemnations don’t change people’s minds and it won’t help us going forward. It also is not contributing to the ongoing conversation here. If you need to rant, please take it somewhere else. This is one of the few places I can have an sincere conversation with people about the data and I’d prefer it not to turn into a political flame war.

      In regards to the new data released today: I’m praying for our state and country. It still might be possible to get this under control and bring the numbers down if we take it seriously. We’ve seen some good movement in South Florida (where I live) regarding public use of masks and slowing the spread of July 4th weekend. Hopefully, it will bring measurable results in the numbers in future weeks.

      Reply
      • Avatar
        DeepStateProvacatuer   July 2, 2020 at 3:12 pm

        Hi Steven –

        > I share some of your frustrations, but name-calling and throwing insults is disrespectful and counterproductive.

        I am so sick and tired of people being able to openly disregard simple, easy to implement measures such as wearing masks, or abstaining from visiting a bar under the guise of their Constitutional freedoms being under assault; the self entitlement, victim-hood mentality is childish and the epitome of narcissism, but yet, they should be immune from criticism because they’ve wrapped themselves up in a first graders rendition of the Constitution. But the moment that someone has the audacity to call that behavior what it is, scientifically ignorant, intellectually bankrupt, and dangerous for everyone, only then there is a problem with civility. Is it respectful, or productive, to decide not to wear a mask in public, and openly object to such provisions? Was it productive to open the beaches and bars when *experts in infectious disease* told us exactly what the outcome would be? Ignorant people making dumb choices got us here, and pussyfooting around it might just enables poor decision making in the future. Why not call a spade a spade?

        These behaviors, and policy decisions are affecting everyone, and they were *the wrong decisions*. It wasn’t some big open question, ‘what might happen if we open bars?’. People who pay respect to the scientific method *knew what would happen*. So, yeah, my language is inflammatory, but experts respectfully told our policy makers what would happen if we opened when we did, and they ignored that advice on the ridiculous notion that hope and tourist dollars would somehow make the physics of viral spread stop happening.

        At what point do we decide that stronger language is necessary to convince people that what they are doing is dangerous for everyone? Ever?

        > It also is not contributing to the ongoing conversation here.

        The people who helped our wise Governor by decide that it was time to re-open by ‘making their voices heard’ comment here a lot, and they deserve to be ridiculed for that; I’m pretty sure the snowflakes can take it. This wasn’t a discussion about the right way to pronounce tomato; this was a public health and safety issue for everyone in the country and state, and despite abundant and clear evidence of what would happen, our policy makers did the exact dumbest thing at the behest of the loudest, least informed voices. Why not make sure that the other side, the side that has the backing of the scientific community, also is loud, and at times, inflammatory?

        The ongoing conversation here is largely one wherein someone’s ill informed and blatantly false opinion is treated the same as predictions made from application of the scientific method and observable reality.

        > I’m praying for our state and country.

        That isn’t a plan. That’s pretty much been our plan from the get go and it hasn’t done very much.

        > It still might be possible to get this under control and bring the numbers down if we take it seriously.

        But first, our policy makers have to take it seriously, and they aren’t doing that. (yet)

        > Hopefully, it will bring measurable results in the numbers in future weeks.

        We can hope!

        Reply
  243. Avatar
    Tony   July 2, 2020 at 1:49 pm

    You seem like a fun guy to hang out with.

    The upward trend is troubling and lets pray for those lives. Our vital statistics for a state of 20,0000,000 plus are as good as any state (Texas is a little better) and i challenge anyone to compare them to any other state.

    Im sure you probably wanted the other guy who almost won the governor election but hes indisposed in a hotel room somewhere.

    Desantis 2024!

    Reply
  244. Avatar
    Tony   July 2, 2020 at 2:08 pm

    Steven – I should have waited for your comment – as you are generally the voice of reason.

    I just cant fathom why there are those that celebrate bad numbers as vindication and I also am not clear on what this plan is that would make all of this completely unavoidable.

    So can someone lay out to me what the exact “plan” that should have been implemented to avoid this?

    Reply
    • Avatar
      DeepStateProvacatuer   July 2, 2020 at 2:44 pm

      @Tony –

      “I just cant fathom why there are those that celebrate bad numbers as vindication and I also am not clear on what this plan is that would make all of this completely unavoidable.”

      Is it really that hard to understand? It isn’t like we don’t have existing, valid examples of states, and countries, that are avoiding exactly what we are going through. Look to Europe, who had an actual lockdown, and did not open up the second a subgroup of the population complained.

      By way of example, see this easy to read graph regarding EU cases and US cases over time:

      https://tucson.com/lifestyles/health-med-fit/graph-shows-stark-difference-in-us-and-eu-responses-to-covid-19/video_b92eb19d-c2db-5247-9f83-cd24a04b4d1b.html

      Can you see any difference between the two?

      The ‘exact’ plan, would have looked like this:

      Don’t open the beaches.
      Don’t open the bars.
      Don’t open the gyms.
      Don’t open the restaurants.
      Don’t open nail saloons.
      Mandate masks.
      Give people a functional social safety net.
      Have functional contact tracing in place.
      Have enough tests available.
      Re-open slowly, based on metrics such as actually going down. If the metrics go up, re-evaluate and shut back down.
      Don’t have a plan based on “hopefully it will go away soon”

      It isn’t hard to imagine what it looks like, all you have to do is look to other places that have done it successfully! Our economy isn’t going to be going gangbusters in a month if we continue to experience exponential growth in infections no matter how much some people want it to be so.

      Reply
      • Avatar
        Tara   July 2, 2020 at 3:10 pm

        What makes you think opening later would have mattered? Understandably, NY and NJ were not ready, since they were hit hardest from the beginning. No one could have predicted what would happen when Florida opened, since it was not hit hard at that point. The other states are learning from the states that opened first.

        No state has the “let’s hope it goes away” plan. It’s absurd. Florida is shutting high impact areas down.

        Reply
        • Avatar
          DeepStateProvacatuer   July 2, 2020 at 3:23 pm

          Hi Tara –

          > What makes you think opening later would have mattered?

          You start with a lower viral load in the population to begin growth. You allow for the creation of contact tracing programs that actually have a chance of identifying persons likely to be infected. You allow for the creation of a backlog of tests so your testing centers don’t reach capacity by noon.

          > No one could have predicted what would happen when Florida opened, since it was not hit hard at that point.

          This is demonstrably untrue. It was predicted quite a bit, the timelines of *when* it would happen were off, but the nature of viral spread and exponential growth weren’t somehow mysterious because we live in Florida.

          > The other states are learning from the states that opened first.

          Are they? Take a look at this graph of US vs EU cases of covid and tell me if you can detect any difference:

          https://tucson.com/lifestyles/health-med-fit/graph-shows-stark-difference-in-us-and-eu-responses-to-covid-19/video_b92eb19d-c2db-5247-9f83-cd24a04b4d1b.html

          Europe’s lockdowns were very strict compared to ours, they didn’t start re-opening until later, and they were a lot better about wearing masks. Look where they are now.

          > No state has the “let’s hope it goes away” plan.

          That’s Trumps plan! He said it less than three days ago:

          “I think we’re going to be very good with the coronavirus. I think that at some point that’s going to sort of just disappear, I hope,” Trump said in an interview with Fox Business Network.”

          If you don’t think that is roughly equivalent to DeSantis’s plans, maybe you could enlighten me. Is DeSantis going to tell Disney not to re-open? Will he mandate masks? Will he reclose bars? Or gyms?

          https://www.local10.com/news/local/2020/06/29/florida-gov-ron-desantis-leaving-mask-mandates-public-closures-up-to-local-leaders-amid-latest-covid-19-spike/

          No. He’s leaving everything up to local governments.

          Reply
  245. Avatar
    Tony   July 2, 2020 at 3:02 pm

    Italy – 35,000 deaths – 14 % of cases
    Spain – 28,000 deaths – 9 % of cases
    UK – 44,000 deaths – 13 % of cases
    France – 30,000 deaths – 18 % of cases

    Florida – 3,600 Deaths – 2.3 % of cases
    Probably would have been 3,580 deaths if the nail salons were closed.

    I like my chances in Florida .

    I agree we screwed up opening up the bars – that was a no brainer and definitely cost lives
    Think we can responsibly social distance on beaches. Think we can be safe in gyms.

    Why wouldnt you close the grocery stores? same chance there as most gyms and it can all be delivered.

    Closing things with no regard to the long term effects of those closures in lieu of practical social distancing and working to minimize deaths not cases is not a strategy its a dream. The average American does not have more than $3,000 in savings and the effects would be devastating.

    Reply
    • Avatar
      Fennec   July 2, 2020 at 5:03 pm

      Most of the 170,000 Floridians who’ve contracted the coronavirus have been diagnosed within the past month. June started with just 57,000 cases. Those who fall ill take time to die. And whereas Spain, Italy and France are mostly done with the current wave, i.e. – have mostly finished counting their dead – Florida is just starting.
      So you can’t compare your “chances” here and there, because it’s apples and oranges. But if you really insist on comparing, then the Florida denominator should be closer to 60-70k, which would put the actual death toll at at least 5%.
      Wait a month or two and with these newer 100k diagnosed, you can expect another 5k dead *at the very least* (if hospitals aren’t overwhelmed).
      But of course, the way things are going right now, by then you’d have another 300k diagnosed. So.

      Reply
  246. Avatar
    Jerome   July 2, 2020 at 3:51 pm

    I’ve been following this thread passively for quite some time. I think Tony has done a great job of analyzing the data from a statistical approach. The key to making good decisions is in good analysis. I wanted to add some commentary into some deeper drill down on the fatalities reported. Has anyone noticed that 52% of the deaths reported are long term care facility related? This seems to be a common theme across the country, and one of the key reasons why the NE states lead the nation in deaths/mil population (NY, NJ, MA making debatably bad policy decisions as it relates to long term care facilities). Not to minimize the threat of this virus (which is definitely real), but I think there is clear distinction of high risk vs low risk populations, and proper care/resources need to be allocated to the higher risk population.

    Reply
  247. Pingback: The mystery of mask denial: Why is it so hard for Americans to mask up to save lives? – Tower

  248. Avatar
    jzizka   July 2, 2020 at 5:12 pm

    How are you getting your daily fatalities number and data? I can’t find up to date info on this anywhere, and it appears the state just removed its daily deaths chart from the dashboard.

    Reply
  249. Avatar
    Gary   July 2, 2020 at 5:40 pm

    Why are they not showing DAILY DEATH RATE and DAILY CASE DETECTED RATES.
    DEATH RATES HAVE BEEN TRENDING DOWN.. not INCREASING. This would state the detection of cases are LESS SEVERE if NO Significant DEATHS are being recorded..
    PLEASE A comparison of DEATHS VS CASES DAILY….ther is a lag of course of days.
    Florida Covid Dashboard used to show this.
    Detection of CASES means little if severity of illness is a nuisance, and not serious.

    Reply
  250. Avatar
    Tony   July 2, 2020 at 6:57 pm

    Fennec Im sorry but your logic is flawed. Not personal it just simply flawed.

    1. The deaths are the numerator not the denominator (work it out and you will see what i mean).

    2. most importantly since number one was being petty – you cant just take the florida cases and apply the same variables as in Europe or the north east. We have better treatments for people, most are reporting the strain is weaker, we understand how to protect nursing homes (great point jerome), we have testing to protect people from going into nursing homes sick.

    I dont understand the desire for people in this thread to constantly just multiply our florida cases by europe or new york variables when time and again we have treated the virus different in florida.

    For instance peak cases in new york was the first week of April – they had 68,000 cases in seven days. Peak deaths in new york was the very next week – they had an unbelievable 6,600 deaths the second week of April. Florida has had 56,000 cases in the last 7 days. We had 290 deaths in the last week. There is definitely no where near enough hospitalizations to get us even past 400 deaths next week – let alone 6,600. In fact they had twice as many deaths in one week as we have had all along on 170,000 cases. Out Data is MILES apart.

    None of this is to diminish that we are seeing our hospitalizations and deaths go up and we dont want that and need to see what practices we can do to minimize. But simply to think that our numbers are even remotely on pace with any european country or any state in the northeast or mid atlantic is statistically improbable.

    If there is one thing im certain of is different states are having way different results. It appears time and again that instead of accepting that and actually trying to find out why so that we can minimize the deaths in those areas have done poorly – I am accused of some sort of statistical wizardry or just “well your numbers will equal the worst states eventually” I say “why – what logic do you base that on” and people say ” well you just want to kill people” on the contrary i want to understand what we are clearly doing well (even with an upswing in hospitalizations and deaths we are light years ahead of alot of big states) and SAVE LIVES. My inference is we dont want to go down that road because the states that have performed poorly are overwhelmingly democratic.

    Reply
  251. Avatar
    Tony   July 2, 2020 at 7:41 pm

    Because Im neurotic – I went and looked at the data for spain and their peak cases and their peak deaths occured simultaneously in the first 3 weeks of April. When their cases spiked – their death spiked – so you right in a sense spain and florida are apples and oranges.

    This magical 1 month lag of deaths from the spike while often touted anecdotally – doesnt actually hold water when you look at almost every country and and state in the northeast. The cases and deaths spike simultaneously.

    Reply
    • Avatar
      Fennec   July 4, 2020 at 3:17 pm

      Tony – see Cheri’s comment below regarding when death occur.
      Also – I specifically did not treat *deaths* as the denominator, but rather the cases up until June 1st (60-70k). I took the current number of deaths and divided it by that case total from a month ago, because people take time to die. Yes, a somewhat crude method.
      And you’re right, different states and countries act differently with this virus, or rather – the virus acts differently on them. Florida certainly may not produce similar results to NY specifically – it obviously has different demographics, so you can’t assume things will be exactly the same.
      But what you also cannot do, is assume widespread infection will *not* result in widespread death. Why can’t you assume that? Because it has not proved to be the case anywhere else in the world (with the possible exception of Singapore (almost a totalitarian state) and some extremely dry countries in the Middle East (Qatar, Bahrain, Oman, UAE), whose data are suspect anyway.

      Reply
  252. Avatar
    Tony   July 2, 2020 at 7:46 pm

    New York – 228,000 cases in April and 16,000 deaths – also in April. Only 5,000 deaths in May – Why so few – I mean its “settled science” that the deaths lag the cases by a month right?

    Reply
  253. Avatar
    Dan Edwards   July 2, 2020 at 8:41 pm

    Thank God I don’t live in Florida. You guys are about to hit overload in the hospitals and the deaths will skyrocket by the middle of July…

    Reply
  254. Avatar
    Steven   July 2, 2020 at 9:39 pm

    For those seeking detailed information about the daily case numbers, positivity rate, numbers of death and other information, I suggest looking at http://ww11.doh.state.fl.us/comm/_partners/covid19_report_archive/state_reports_latest.pdf. That is a link to the DOH report that is updated daily. There are many other reports available, as well as previous daily reports if you use the same url but remove everything after the last /

    Tony, you bring up valid points, which are supported by the data, about the delay of deaths after new cases. My hesitation on that is that it doesn’t seem logical. How can it be that people are dying as soon as they are diagnosed? Could it be perhaps that those statistics were from the beginning of our response to the pandemic (I saw several times you were pointing to April, specifically the first week). It’s very likely that at that time, when testing was just ramping up and we were just beginning to understand what was happening, many people were being tested as they showed up at the hospital in advanced stages of the disease. At that time the only ones who were being tested were those showing marked symptoms or those who had been exposed to a confirmed case. There simply weren’t enough tests available at the time. In light of that, it makes sense that there was a much shorter gap between diagnosis and death. Today that is not the case, which means that we still might be looking at a spike in the death rate 3-4 weeks after the recent spike in cases. What do you think?

    I am not saying this in hopes that there will be more deaths, but am simply trying to understand the spread of the virus and hoping that we will all take this seriously and do everything we can to slow the spread.

    Reply
  255. Avatar
    Tara   July 3, 2020 at 6:47 am

    I fear that just as the hospitalizations and death trend upwards, so will the arrival of Internet trolls (not you, Steve) to this forum, which has up to now managed to stay civilized. Quite a feat!

    Reply
  256. Avatar
    Tony   July 3, 2020 at 7:29 am

    Steven – Thats a valid logical hypothesis for sure. Ultimately we dont know. My counter argument to that logic would be advanced treatments and that primarily we are seeing younger asymptomatic transfer in Florida.

    In a way this is exactly my point/frustration. It is different in Florida than it is in other states both because the timing of the outbreak and the strategies our governor has time and time again employed to protect the vulnerable. It remains to be seen what that means but the data is different.

    Tara – your right on that. I keep hanging on to the hospitalization number. Yes it creeped up to a 7 day average of 200 hospitalizations which historically is going to translate into 50 deaths. The primary claim of the trolls as I understand it is we are a ticking time bomb that inevitably has to reach new york numbers (the alternative is that we actually managed the virus better than New York and that is wholly unacceptable to the trolls). If we were to get to New York numbers we would have to average like 300 deaths a day for 45 days and the corresponding 1200 hospitalizations.

    As Deep State points out – we have seen cases double every week for 4 weeks but hospitalizations in the entire time have not even doubled once – going from a 130 7 day avg to a 200 single day avg in that time.

    Reply
    • Avatar
      Cheri   July 3, 2020 at 6:43 pm

      Actually, Tony, the reason there didn’t appear to be a lag between cases and deaths in places such as spain, italy and nyc is because the virus was there spreading for a good 6 weeks undetected.

      https://www.wsj.com/articles/some-new-yorkers-had-coronavirus-antibodies-in-february-study-shows-11593595801

      It is a lengthy illness. We were already detecting and testing so we are actually seeing the lag of time it takes between those getting sick and passing away. And the death rate in Florida, as of the last week, is increasing. The country as a whole has been decreasing but in Florida it has been increasing as of the last week.

      Hopefully, due to better knowledge of the virus and therapeutics, as well as older individuals hopefully still socially distancing, the death rate in Florida will not reach anywhere near those numbers in the first hit places. They didn’t know it was coming and were not prepared. Also, hospital capacity has a lot to do with it. Once hospitals get overloaded the death rate will go up because they can’t get everyone the same standard of care. If it gets to that point in Florida I’m sure the governor will do some sort of mitigation.

      Reply
  257. Avatar
    Bob   July 3, 2020 at 12:40 pm

    Tony, according to the Florida Hospitalizations Y Chart website, as of 6pm yesterday there were 472 Covid 19 patients currently hospitalized in the state. Have you seen any other places which list current hospitalizations?

    Reply
  258. Avatar
    Tony   July 3, 2020 at 6:12 pm

    I dont. I just know cumulative. I dont have visibility as to people who check out or current.

    That number seems hard for me to believe though as almost 700 hospitalizations have happened in the last 2 days

    Reply
  259. Avatar
    Bob   July 3, 2020 at 6:58 pm

    I agree. That’s why I asked. All of the other numbers they had on the site lined up with the Fl DOH, so it looked legitimate, however, this number stuck out to me. I haven’t seen a current number on any other site. Thanks.

    Reply
  260. Avatar
    Artie   July 3, 2020 at 8:52 pm

    There’s a difference between reported cases and actual infections. I live in Southern Connecticut, and here just like NY and NJ, there was almost no testing to be found back in March and early April. People who had symptoms but did not require hospitalization were told to self quarantine, and never got tested. Thousands of infections never got counted. The same thing happened in Italy and Spain. Reported cases spiked weeks after the surge of the outbreak not because more people were newly infected during lockdowns, but because there was more available testing to capture people who were less sick. The US is now testing vastly more people than it, or Italy and Spain did in the early phases of their infections. Deaths will absolutely lag behind reported cases now. I really, really hope I’m wrong about this, but I expect that you’re going to see the ramp up in deaths continue. It’s unlikely that you’ll see anything close to Tri-State region numbers, but some bad days of 100+ would not be surprising. Stay careful folks.

    Reply
  261. Avatar
    Tara   July 4, 2020 at 4:26 am

    Tony and Bob, I’m pretty sure the hospitalizations number on the dashboard includes ALL hospitalizations, not just COVID ones. But I have read that this week, Florida was supposed to start reporting which of those are Covid. It would also be nice to know the number currently hospitalized.

    Reply
    • Avatar
      Steven   July 4, 2020 at 8:51 am

      Tara, the numbers are COVID hospitalizations, not all hospitalizations. On the DOH’s daily report it make it clear that it is a total of all people who have been hospitalized for COVID. The news this week about reporting change is that they will start reporting the number of those who are currently hospitalized for COVID, not just the total. Those are important numbers (especially the number in ICU) for people who are carefully watching our hospital capacity.

      There is a project from FIU showing numbers of current hospitalizations in South Florida. They are using hospital census data. The numbers don’t all add up completely, but it’s useful to get a rough idea. The number currently hospitalized in South Florida is shown as 2,100 as of June 30.
      https://rwilli5.github.io/MiamiCovidProject/South%20Florida%20Covid-19%20Trajectory/

      Reply
  262. Avatar
    Bob   July 4, 2020 at 8:57 am

    Tara, thanks. The numbers above represent all hospital admissions in Florida each day? Will they report hospitalizations due to Covid or hospitalizations with Covid? I have heard a number of hospital heads say recently that around 20% of their admissions for non Covid reasons are testing positive.

    Reply
  263. Avatar
    Bob   July 4, 2020 at 8:59 am

    Thanks Steven, that makes sense. Those numbers seemed low for total admissions in a state of 21 million people. And frankly, I would be much more interested in current hospitalizations than total hospitalizations.

    Reply
  264. Avatar
    AlexWill   July 4, 2020 at 9:07 am

    DeepStateProvacatuer,

    As I see it, the biggest problem with your argument is that executives like presidents and governors have to make concrete decisions that impact real people based on imperfect data.

    Executives don’t get to hide behind squishy terms like “roughly doubling” and “eventually we will find a place” and “it seems likely” and “it may be closer” and “at least two weeks worth” and “for two weeks (or more)” and “for three weeks (or more)” and “over a month” and “might start dying earlier,” etc.

    As you correctly state “this was all completely predictable” when you look back from the future. Was it completely predictable that thousands of the most vulnerable would die when Cuomo mandated that COVID patients be readmitted to nursing homes? Looking back now, sure it was. If I look back at your posting history to the day Cuomo made his decision, can I assume I will find where you were pointing out what a disastrous action that was and putting a number on how many would die? Can we hold it against Cuomo that he had imperfect data about the future?

    Today is July 4, here’s your real opportunity to prove your point about how predictable this is (fill in the blank with the future data for Florida):

    August 4
    Daily Coronavirus Cases 7-Day Average: _______
    Daily Hospitalizations 7-Day Average: _______
    Daily Fatalities: _______
    Total Fatalities: _______
    Number of Available ICU beds: _______

    September 4
    Daily Coronavirus Cases 7-Day Average: _______
    Daily Hospitalizations 7-Day Average: _______
    Daily Fatalities: _______
    Total Fatalities: _______
    Number of Available ICU beds: _______

    October 4
    Daily Coronavirus Cases 7-Day Average: _______
    Daily Hospitalizations 7-Day Average: _______
    Daily Fatalities: _______
    Total Fatalities: _______
    Number of Available ICU beds: _______

    These are just some of the numbers Governor DeSantis needs to make his decisions and set his policies. We can all check back on those dates and see how you did. I will certainly applaud you if you score within, say, 10% on all these numbers. And the executives making decisions could certainly use predictions that accurate.

    Reply
    • Avatar
      DeepStateProvocateur   July 5, 2020 at 8:39 am

      Hi AlexWill –

      > As I see it, the biggest problem with your argument is that executives like presidents and governors have to make concrete decisions that impact real people based on imperfect data.

      Sure. What ‘concrete decisions’ has the President made, by the way? Can you name any?

      > Executives don’t get to hide behind squishy terms like “roughly doubling” and “eventually we will find a place” and “it seems likely” and “it may be closer” and “at least two weeks worth” and “for two weeks (or more)” and “for three weeks (or more)” and “over a month” and “might start dying earlier,” etc.

      What is squishy about “at least two weeks worth or decreasing cases”?

      In any case, the White House had guidelines published in the times when public safety experts still had insight. Before even starting to enter the first phase of re-opening, it was recommend that the state observe a “Downward trajectory of documented cases within a 14-day period”.

      Did Florida do that? Did Texas, or Arizona? No.

      I guess counting to 14 too difficult for our Republican executives these days? Is detecting if 200 is less than 100 overly difficult for DeSantis or his advisors?

      > As you correctly state “this was all completely predictable” when you look back from the future.

      It was also *completely predicted* by infectious disease specialists! What do you think they’ve been saying this whole time? Here is a quote from Fauci on 5.12 regarding states that were trying to re-open. I would provide links, but they tend to get stuck in moderation, occasionally never to return. You can google any significant part of the quote to validate it.

      “If some areas, cities, states or what-have-you, jump over those various checkpoints and prematurely open up without having the capability of being able to respond effectively and efficiently, my concern is that we will start to see little spikes that might turn into outbreaks,”

      So, take a look at what is happening in Houston, or Dallas or Arizona, and tell me this wasn’t prescient? I mean, do you think it is just some *wild coincidence* that states that re-opened the fastest are also the ones experiencing the biggest outbreaks?

      > Was it completely predictable that thousands of the most vulnerable would die when Cuomo mandated that COVID patients be readmitted to nursing homes?

      Super dumb move, but ultimately, he did this *because the hospitals were overwhelmed*. If new cases were to be treated, people needed to be moved out of the hospital. These are the types of decisions that get made when there are no more hospital beds available, and Florida, Texas, and Arizona are heading that direction now (a prediction). When we get there, it will be because we opened too soon, and too many morons refused to wear a mask because it infringes on their ‘freedoms’.

      > These are just some of the numbers Governor DeSantis needs to make his decisions and set his policies.

      You want some predictions? In Houston, the place where Texan individualism had people not wearing masks, you will see stories of doctors deciding which patients get care and which don’t, death panels if you will, by 8.4.20. Texas will be *back* in a lock down by 8.4.20, because the even the ‘elderly should sacrifice for the economy’ Lt Governor knows that their re-opening was a total disaster, their ‘great state’ on the front page of every paper and first segment of any reality based news outlet as a (preventable) horror show.

      As far as numbers, here’s a few stabs in the dark:

      In Florida, Orlando, Tampa, and Jacksonville will begin to see significant increases in hospitalizations by 8.4.20. Hospitals in South Florida will be beyond surge capacity by 8.4.20. Let’s just say in Florida that we will be seeing 750 hospitalizations per day by 8.4.20. Deaths are harder to guess at, there are some therapeutics (i.e., steroids, plasma therapy, Remdesivir) and demographics (i.e., vitamin D levels) that seem to help extremely bad cases, so fewer might die on a per capita basis compared to NYC. Let’s say our daily deaths will be at 250 / day on 8.4.20. ICU beds are going to be a problem everywhere, but especially in larger metro areas; not that having two free ICU beds in Wakula is going to do anything to help Jacksonville who might need 50 free beds by then.

      By the way, what prize do I get if my predictions are too rosy, and we actually have 500 deaths a day by 8.4.20?

      Going further out, things get more difficult, seeing how as there will be more policy changes inbound once even DeSantis can see that his ‘we aren’t going back’ statement has aged like milk. I imagine gyms will be closed again, and restaurants back to 25% capacity or outdoor seating only. This will happen by 8.15.20.

      The Republican National Convention in Jacksonville will be a tour-de-force of mouth breathers bravely not wearing masks or social distancing because the virus is just a big hoax that is going to just vanish eventually anyways. Considering how much Jacksonville county is already showing increases in COVID, it will be October before any effect of that party will show up, and it might be meaningless in the grand scheme of things if the entire place is on fire anyways. If you watch TV, you can expect to see video of this event peppering the broadcasts in ads supporting Democratic candidates because it exposes *how completely dumb* people were to take a simple, physical action that reduces virus spread and turn it into a political wedge.

      By 9.4.20, DeSantis will be getting ROASTED for allowing Disney to re-open. Orlando will be a complete mess, Disney wants to stay open, but nobody in their right mind is flying into the airport, and hundreds or thousands of Disney employees will have been diagnosed with COVID. There will be dozens of whistleblowers who insist they were threatened with a loss of a job if they didn’t show up to get in a Mickey suit.

      By 11.4.20 Trump’s approval rating with the elderly in Florida will be negative, an impressive feat considering he won them by 16 points in 2016.

      Reply
      • Avatar
        AlexWill   July 5, 2020 at 12:12 pm

        <>

        I don’t know why you would think I’m defending Trump. I can’t stand the guy. My point is that everything he does is a concrete action that impacts actual people. Everything you do is just words. He goes to Mount Rushmore and people are impacted for both good and bad — it’s the real world everything is both good and bad. He points out the good. You point out the bad. He has a convention and people are impacted for both good and bad. He points out the good. You point out the bad. Your words are just that. Words. No one is impacted for good or bad. No one has to live with the consequences of your words. You can change them whenever or tweak them whenever. There are no consequences. Presidents and Governors don’t have that luxury.

        Well, of the eight phrases I pointed out, I notice you decided to defend one. It’s squishy because it doesn’t say “two weeks” it says “at least two weeks.” That’s exactly what squishy means. There are an infinite number of weeks that are “at least two weeks.” If you’re giving the executives a choice of an infinite number of choices, that’s some mighty squishy advice. Did they wait “at least” two weeks? No. But “two weeks” or “fourteen days” whatever it was, wasn’t handed down from God. That’s why you have advisors. Decisions have to be made. They made them. Good and bad. It’s the real world. Executives have to get input from the public health people, the mental health people, the economists, the policy people, the political advisors, etc., weigh the options and make the decisions. You can’t let Fauci run the pandemic response for the same reason you can’t let the generals run the war, or the Department of Transportation decide where the roads get built. They have a singular purpose and a singular viewpoint. The executives have to take all the input, make the decision and live with the consequences.

        I’m going to assume that’s sarcasm. I’m pretty sure the governor can count to 14.

        No need to validate it. I’ll trust you on it. See above comments on input from various sources for executives. I assume you’ll agree that Fauci, not being God, is not correct 100% of the time. If he is wrong about this? What if he was wrong about something else? And millions are bankrupted and standing in bread lines? Then what happens? Drug use? Suicide? Someone has to make that call considering his and all the other advice and live with the consequences. You, clearly, would have made the other decision. But you didn’t get elected President or Governor. Clearly we would have been better off if you had been. You have done us a great wrong by denying us your service.

        Here you’re providing context for Cuomo’s decision, which you seem unable to do for anyone else. I don’t see where you provide the context that DeSantis did what he did *because he didn’t want to bankrupt thousands of businesses and millions of people*. Your “explanation” is that he is unable to count to 14. I personally think Cuomo’s decision was horrible. But I wouldn’t accuse him of being unable to count to 14 or being malicious. He looked at the situation, he listened to his advisors, he made a decision. It impacted people for both good and bad.

        Some quantifiable predictions, yes.

        Well, as much as the media love this kind of story, we are guaranteed to see that story. We’ll see if occurs before 8/4/20. But I suspect it will. I saw about 1000 of these stories about New York. So I’d be stunned if I don’t see them about Texas.

        Well, since that has always been the advice of Fauci and part of the plan, to open up, test, move back if necessary, that wouldn’t surprise me either. We’ll see about the date.

        Squishy. How is the Governor supposed to make a decision if his advisors say we’ll see “significant” increases. What does that even mean? 5%? 50%? 500%? 5000%? This is what I mean about you being about to tweak your words later. It’s not an insult, it’s how the universe and the human brain work. If it increases 5%, you’ll convince yourself you were right. That’s a significant increase! If it’s 50%, you were right again! And you didn’t even say we’d see the increase. You said we will “begin” to see the increase. That can mean almost anything.

        Slightly squishy (but better). Will it be “significant” numbers of hospitals “significantly” beyond surge capacity? Will you be right if it’s two? That would be plural.

        Now we’re getting somewhere. I don’t know how many there are now or if that’s a lot so I don’t know how bold that prediction is, but it’s certainly a testable hypothesis. Let us see. What if it’s 2750? Were you wrong? It would certainly be a terrible prediction to take to the Governor if you predict 750 and it turns out to be 2750! He has to make a decision today based on your guess.

        You left out hydroxychloroquine. Must have been an accidental oversight. See the recent Henry Ford Health System scientific study.***A team at Henry Ford Health System in southeast Michigan said Thursday their study of 2,541 hospitalized patients found that those given hydroxychloroquine were much less likely to die. Dr. Marcus Zervos, division head of infectious disease for Henry Ford Health System, said 26% of those not given hydroxychloroquine died, compared to 13% of those who got the drug. The team looked back at everyone treated in the hospital system since the first patient in March.***

        I don’t know if it helps or not. I have no direct experience. But science says ‘yes’.

        Again, better. But what’s your range? Does DeSantis plan for 250? What if it’s 150? or 2500?

        Now THAT’S a bold prediction. Let’s check back on 8/4/20 and see if every single county in the state, otherwise known as “everywhere”, has a problem with ICU beds.

        No prizes for incorrect predictions either way. Governors and presidents have to make real decisions. You can’t plan for every eventuality. You have to make real decisions about real people and real money with the best data you have.

        Agreed. This is how the universe works.

        We will see. (I’ll grant you the wiggle room of 25% capacity OR outdoor seating only.)

        I don’t see anything testable in there. You think Republicans are mouth breathers? Check. You think this decision is “completely dumb”? Check. We will see ads from Democrats insulting Republicans? Check.

        He was roasted before it even happened, so not much of a prediction there. Also, you know he’ll be roasted whatever happens, so no points for that.

        Non testable. I’m certain by the definitions of DeSantis opponents it will be a mess whatever the status.

        The google machine says they have 77,000 employees so it would be statistically stunning if that were not the case.

        Not sure what to say about this. If you refuse to do your job, of course your job is in danger. If you point out that you refused to do your job and got fired, does that make you a whistleblower? I’m sure there will be stories. Maybe dozens; 77,000 employees after all. Not sure if it means anything.

        Okay, if this one works out I WILL get you a major award (possibly a leg lamp). Since approval ratings run from 0-100, it’s mathematically impossible for an approval rating to be negative. Unless you’re talking about a net approval rating, although you didn’t say that. I’d be surprised if it’s not already.

        Don’t take it personally. I’m not even saying you’re wrong. All of your predictions could be correct. I’m just saying either hold yourself to the same standard you’re holding the decisionmakers too, or cut them the same slack you cut yourself. It’s only fair. If daily deaths don’t match your prediction of 250 and you made policy decisions based on that, you either let some people die who didn’t have to or bankrupted people you didn’t have to with all the bad that comes from that. And you’ll have to live with the consequences.

        Sorry this was so long.

        Reply
        • Avatar
          DeepStateProvocateur   July 5, 2020 at 1:44 pm

          @ AlexWill –

          Love it. No worries on the lengthy response.

          > Presidents and Governors don’t have that luxury.

          That’s true, but why aren’t we able to hold them accountable when their decisions not only are bad for the country, but bad for the country (or state) in very predictable ways? And yes, all I have is words, but as futile as it may seem, I do hope that my words might convince someone to vote differently, away from candidates who have gleefully eschewed a science based approach to the pandemic.

          > That’s exactly what squishy means.

          But we didn’t even wait 14 days! We couldn’t even manage that, so all this hand wringing about squishy or not is moot. Nobody has an exact game plan for something like this, but we couldn’t even follow this simple guideline: “Count to 14”

          > Executives have to get input from the public health people, the mental health people, the economists, the policy people, the political advisors, etc., weigh the options and make the decisions.

          OK. But what we can see is that the people who weighed those options, and made the decisions to open early, to stand away from mandating masks, are seeing completely predictable outbreaks of the disease. Take a look at the graph on this page comparing positive tests in the US vs Europe:

          https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/30/europe/european-union-travel-us-graphic-intl/index.html

          Yeah, the decisions we made had consequences.

          > Here you’re providing context for Cuomo’s decision, which you seem unable to do for anyone else.

          I provided plenty of context for Trump’s belief that it will ‘all just disappear’ (he’s an idiot). I mean, a week ago, Trump’s economic advisor, Kramer, went on TV and proclaimed ‘there is no second wave’. What context could we possibly come up with to absolve this kind of thing other than plain old ignorance?

          > I don’t see where you provide the context that DeSantis did what he did *because he didn’t want to bankrupt thousands of businesses and millions of people*.

          Well, in other areas here, I wondered aloud who is going to be spending money in a re-opened economy when the hospitals are all popping at the seams with people who cannot breathe. The economic impacts of a re-opening are going to be vanish once the upcoming wave lands with the inevitable re-closing, and this one is going to last *much longer*, because the virus has a far deeper grip in the population.

          In any case, the economic arguments for re-opening have a place (if done cautiously), and it is my hope that it turns the country to a place where we can honestly discuss if having an economy based on continuous consumption wherein half the population is paycheck to paycheck is a good model or not. And the thing is, we (in Florida), did not re-open cautiously; we had no strong mandates for social distancing and/or masks, and we opened up bars.

          > But I wouldn’t accuse him of being unable to count to 14 or being malicious. He looked at the situation, he listened to his advisors, he made a decision.

          A decision to ignore the guidelines. Do you think any of his advisors told him: “By July 4, our cases will have increased ten fold, per day?” If they had, do you think he would have steamed ahead? In our situation, cases increased by 20 fold. I mean, I guess I wonder if you think there was a scenario they could have painted for him that would have caused him to *not* re-open? I don’t think so, because he was so intent on pleasing Trump (and Trump voters). You are really interested in the empiric of this, what value of predicted daily hospitalizations would have made DeSantis hold up on the re-open?

          > Well, as much as the media love this kind of story, we are guaranteed to see that story. We’ll see if occurs before 8/4/20. But I suspect it will. I saw about 1000 of these stories about New York. So I’d be stunned if I don’t see them about Texas.

          That’s what is so horrifying, it isn’t like this was a big surprise (‘what will happen if we open the bars?’), we had plenty of examples of what the virus does with un-inhibited spread. You go on to make economic arguments; do you think the boost of having bars open in Texas for two months is going to make up for the upcoming lockdown when reality sets in?

          > If it increases 5%, you’ll convince yourself you were right. That’s a significant increase! If it’s 50%, you were right again! And you didn’t even say we’d see the increase. You said we will “begin” to see the increase. That can mean almost anything.

          If your mandate is to protect the health of the population, I would think that you’d be shooting for significant decreases in that population going to the hospital. I can’t help but think of Shrek, wherein the small king is willing to send his nights into battle against the dragon. “Some of you may die, but it is a risk I am willing to take!”

          I mean, I’d have respect for DeSantis had ever came out with any non-squishy values; “I believe in X weeks we will be at Y cases per day, and I have determined the benefits to the economy will make that trade off acceptable”. Did he do that? If he didn’t, why not hold him as accountable for being squishy as you’d like to hold me?

          What amount of daily hospitalizations and deaths would make that decision seem good to you, I wonder?

          > don’t know how many there are now or if that’s a lot so I don’t know how bold that prediction is, but it’s certainly a testable hypothesis. Let us see. What if it’s 2750? Were you wrong?

          This isn’t a two tailed test in my opinion; if it’s 2750, then I was wrong in absolute terms, but correct in terms of the direction of our course.

          > You left out hydroxychloroquine.

          The study you mention, had double the steroid use in the treatment group! Understanding that end stage failure and death is largely a function of cytokine storm / the bodies immune system over reacting, and not the virus proper, over using a drug known to tamper down the immune system this is a huge confounding factor. I mean, they added steroids it because they had a good rationale toward it’s use for COVID and it would have been immoral to have a treatment group without it! Hydroxychloroquine is a dud.

          > Now THAT’S a bold prediction. Let’s check back on 8/4/20 and see if every single county in the state, otherwise known as “everywhere”, has a problem with ICU beds.

          OK!

          > You think Republicans are mouth breathers?

          Well, the ones dumb enough to get into an arena next to each other without wearing masks, yeah.

          > If you point out that you refused to do your job and got fired, does that make you a whistleblower

          I do not think we should conflate ‘refusing to do your job’ with ‘being forced to come into work while sick with a known pathogen in the middle of a pandemic’. Again, this will be a good opportunity to see if the country has the stomach to look at our health care system, and system of insurance, and determine if we are doing all we can to protect our citizens.

          > Since approval ratings run from 0-100, it’s mathematically impossible for an approval rating to be negative.

          Hah. Yeah, well, he won seniors by 16 points in 16, so yeah, net. But OK. Love the leg lamp joke.

          > Don’t take it personally. I’m not even saying you’re wrong.

          Sure!

          > I’m just saying either hold yourself to the same standard you’re holding the decisionmakers too, or cut them the same slack you cut yourself.

          No. Here is why. The same people making these decisions that are turning out so awfully have a history of doing the same thing (making awful decisions) other places. Climate change? It’s a hoax! Gay people? They don’t deserve protection from discrimination! Does anyone think that the 1T tax cut Trump passed helped anyone but the top 1%? The corporations who saw their tax rates slashed simply poured it into buybacks, and immediately came running to Big Government for bail outs the second the pandemic hit. These people are wrong, consistently wrong, on every big issue, and they keep doubling down on being dumb about it.

          You don’t get slack cut for you by consistently legislating based on scientific ignorance, faux morality, and economic theory that has done nothing but increase inequality for the past four decades.

          > If daily deaths don’t match your prediction of 250 and you made policy decisions based on that, you either let some people die who didn’t have to or bankrupted people you didn’t have to with all the bad that comes from that.

          This reminds me of something Fauci said early on, it was along the lines of ‘if we go too far in protecting people, we may never know, but if we don’t do enough to protect people, we will never live it down’. That is what we are witnessing here.

          > Sorry this was so long.

          No problem!

          Reply
  265. Avatar
    Serge Taran   July 4, 2020 at 9:56 am

    I want to see ONE chart, with two lines:

    Green – number of people who died in the U.S. (for any reason) in January – June 2019

    and

    Red – number of people who died in the U.S. (for any reason) in January – June 2020

    Until then, I consider Covid-19 l as a disrespectful and dangerous stunt in 2020 Election campaign.

    I will be Very Happy to admit, I was wrong, if I ever see such a chart.

    Reply
    • Avatar
      Fennec   July 4, 2020 at 2:53 pm

      https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm

      Reply
    • Avatar
      Fennec   July 4, 2020 at 3:38 pm

      Also here, where the chart you requested is available – though you should remember that the virus was not and is not spreading equally everywhere. So while there is obvious excess death over the entire USA, it is much more striking in specific states (Try MA, CT, DC, obviously NY & NJ).
      Also remember that *less* people are dying this year in traffic accidents.
      And note that this excess mortality is *after* severe mitigating means have been taken.
      https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm

      Reply
  266. Avatar
    Tara   July 4, 2020 at 11:07 am

    Thanks, Steven, for that correction. I guess what I read, and as you stated here: “The news this week about reporting change is that they will start reporting the number of those who are currently hospitalized for COVID, not just the total.” was what confused me.

    At any rate, cases set new high today, but deaths and hospitalizations are lower. *fingers crossed*

    Personally, I have elected to quarantine myself until this blows over. My thought was always that we should never have shut down, but instead take precautions and quarantine the groups most likely to be affected the hardest. As a 65-year-old, the CDC has taught me that I am elderly and then some. I wasn’t aware of that before. 🙂

    Reply
    • Avatar
      Steven   July 4, 2020 at 2:54 pm

      A lot of respect to you Tara for choosing to quarantine yourself! It can’t be easy!! I really believe that if all of us who the CDC doesn’t consider elderly 😉 would take this seriously, we could make it safer for the high risk people even without quarantine.

      Reply
  267. Avatar
    Tony   July 4, 2020 at 1:48 pm

    Im still perplexed at the stark difference in the numbers from NY/NJ to Florida. The amount of deaths do not seem to be going down in that area in correspondence to their cases.

    In the past 3 Weeks NY/NJ combined has had 21,000 cases and 1,200 Deaths
    In the past 3 Weeks Florida has had 107,000 cases and 818 deaths

    The 3 weeks before that NY/NJ combined for 37,000 cases and 2,804 Deaths
    The same 3 weeks so from 4-6 weeks ago Florida had 21,50 cases and 699 Deaths

    Either the virus is a ton more deadly in those states or they are hiding positive cases or something but the numbers are fishy.

    Reply
    • Avatar
      Steven   July 4, 2020 at 2:49 pm

      I think this data is playing into the conversation that we’ve been having here about the delay between being tested positive, being hospitalized and dying from the virus. You can’t compare new cases and daily deaths from the same time period. Daily deaths must be compared to new cases 4-8 weeks previous. If we look at your numbers that way: 4-6 weeks ago NY/NJ had 37,000 cases which yielded 1,200 deaths (3.2%) in the past 3 weeks. Florida had 21,500 cases 4-6 weeks ago which yielded 818 deaths (3.8%) in the past three weeks. Considering that, the death rate seems to be about the same. If those numbers hold true, we should expect about 3,700 deaths in Florida over the next 3 weeks. That could be lower if the virus stays mostly among younger, healthier people, which I hope it does.

      If we discount the first months of the virus when everything was chaotic, there seems to be a steady relation between deaths a few weeks after new cases. We see this in the steady decline of NY/NJ cases and deaths.

      Reply
    • Avatar
      DeepStateProvocateur   July 5, 2020 at 8:52 am

      Tony –

      You aren’t ever going to try to make sense out of it because the reported new york data is a total mess. You are just gonna drive yourself crazy. Here are some things to think about:

      It has been predicted through antibody testing that 20% of new yorkers were exposed; when they were testing there, it was only people who were really sick and coming to the hospital. There were no drive in testing sites like we have. Think about people riding in mass transit all through January, February and March, spreading COVID. A LOT more people had it and their cases never made it into the official count.

      Take a look at cases of ‘pneumonia’ deaths in 2020:

      https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/investigations/2020/04/29/far-greater-u-s-covid-19-death-toll-indicated-cdc-data/3048381001/

      Also, consider that vitamin d levels are known to be protective for COVID and consider the average sunlight exposure of a NYC resident compared to a Floridian. Finally, there are some therapies available for tough cases now (i.e., plasma exchange, steroidal treatments, a few pharmaceuticals) that were not available in NYC peak times. You’ll still see overloaded hospitals, but fewer deaths if these protocols are in place now, as opposed to then.

      As noted previously, returning people to nursing homes was a disaster. For all of my criticism of DeSantis, I doubt he’ll do that when hospitals start running out of room.

      This isn’t fishy data, it’s reality where records are poor, there are significant confounders across populations, and our treatment sets are different now versus the past.

      Reply
  268. Avatar
    Tony   July 4, 2020 at 2:20 pm

    Cheri, You make a great point in the virus spreading undetected. I actually believe the virus was spreading rapidly undetected in April and May as well in Florida. Its statistically improbable that we went from 22,000 cases to 100,000 cases in 1 month. I think we just didn’t capture the asymptomatic spread in May and April. Thats not to say we arent spreading it more rapidly by being open – its pretty clear we are – but not 5 times the rate. I also believe we are not capturing the asymptomatic spread in the north east.

    We are “capturing” 50,000 cases a day but that is not the totality of it for sure. We keep acting like we have had perfect information all along on the universe of people who contract it. We keep reporting and “increase in cases” as if we counted all of them before and after. Meanwhile we are adding more tests every day. Seems to me we are just continually reaching the upper limit of cases detected to actual cases transmitted.

    So in May we could have a day of 600,000 transmissions but only caught 35,000 of them. Today we could have 500,000 transmissions of which we only caught 50,000. No one knows because testing capacity has seen a sever ramp up.

    I believe this because of the phenomena of increased testing capacity and more importantly – asymptomatic infection. Its unrealistic to believe that we are seeing tens of thousands of asymptomatic cases that are turning up now, because of testing capacity, that weren’t there in May. With limited testing capacity and only essential business open – there would be no motivation for an asymptomatic person to test in May.

    To me this perfectly explains why the death rate is drastically going down in almost all states (except New Jersey).

    If I am right – I feel for the non-essential business in the North East as – they will see “cases” skyrocket as they open up – not deaths and this will lead to whole scale shut downs in those states as I fear they will ignore the data.

    Reply
    • Avatar
      Steven   July 4, 2020 at 3:05 pm

      Tony, that’s why the positivity rate is so important. It’s not about tests to positives, it’s about the percentage of tests that are positive. We have been seeing that increase. Also, a high positivity rate means that not enough tests are being done. If the rate is increasing it means that the increase in testing is not keeping up with the increase in new cases. This is bad because it means more people are not getting caught early and so are spreading the virus more.

      As far as asymptomatic cases, they are still a problem because they still spread the virus. We don’t have firm numbers on what percentage of cases are asymptomatic, but they are more dangerous in some ways because, unless we are regularly testing everybody in the state, the asymptomatic are spreading the virus to people who will be symptomatic, some of whom will die.

      Reply
  269. Avatar
    Tony   July 4, 2020 at 3:42 pm

    It seems logical to me that if we were about to have 3700 deaths then the hospitalizations would have already spiked.

    I am becoming more and more convinced that you cant compare any state to another unless you make all the variables constant. I think florida and some other states are pounding out asymptomatic positives and others are not. This difference will cause havoc in predictability of deaths from one to the next.

    To be clear – i do think we are spreading the virus at too rapid a rate. It could be civilly argued that we made mistakes to get to this point but republican or democrat we cannot change the past (I recognize the irony of that statement). We have to stay safe – mask, wash hands, social distance and most importantly do everything possible to inform and protect those that the data shows are vulnerable. As a side note it is not reported enough the unbelievable increase in chance of death by comorbidity or over 65. We have had more deaths from people over 80 than those under 65 in Florida.

    I am just hopeful that the data indicates that when you add up the real number of people who have it – the death rate is going to be less than a 1/2 of percent. At this point I have to be right because the alternative is something the Nation/State cannot take at the rate this virus travels.

    Reply
  270. Avatar
    Bob   July 4, 2020 at 5:22 pm

    Tony I completely agree with you relative to the predicted spikes. And maybe there is a better study somewhere, but the best study that I have seen out there was from the Lancet in England which pegged the average time from showing symptoms to death at 17.8 days. I would guess that the standard deviation may be great, but certainly not several weeks. It is easy to google the information.

    Reply
  271. Avatar
    Bob   July 4, 2020 at 5:28 pm

    Steven you are absolutely correct that we need more testing if we want to slow the spread. Pool testing has been proposed recently and that may be the best way for us to multiply the testing to an adequate level with the resources available.

    Reply
  272. Avatar
    Darlene Rancourt   July 4, 2020 at 6:31 pm

    Thank you for numbers AND avg trend in ea gragh! Very Good.

    Please consider developing a percent-positive gragh in similar fashion? It would help cut through the noise and push-back surrounding the rising numbers.

    Reply
    • Avatar
      Rick   July 5, 2020 at 4:09 am

      The percent of cases coming back positive is is clearly the metric we need to use to measure the progress of the epidemic. Devoid of context, the raw number of cases tells you absolutely nothing.

      Reply
  273. Avatar
    Truth Seeker   July 4, 2020 at 7:39 pm

    They are cooking the numbers on this covid B.S. and we know why. It is the globalist / communist agenda to bring total HELL.. to the U.S.A. and the world. This covid is a scam and part of there hell agenda to put fear in the people to get them to fall for there lies and be enslaved like never before. They want you to take there poison vaccines so many people will die from them and from all the other hell… they will bring, and have planed for you. The people of this web site are following like others the lies and agenda of the globalist CCP communist. Don’t fall it and don’t be enslaved by these workers of satan. God in heaven almighty hand will come down hard soon for all like this web site. That is the Truth……!!!

    Reply
  274. Avatar
    Scott   July 4, 2020 at 9:20 pm

    Always good to see a debate and to know that regardless what side your on we are all concerned and hopefully masking up. I need to bring up a couple of issues that I haven’t seen mentioned in the thread that may be interest. 1.) The virus is mutating and appears to be able to attach itself to a host much easier than the prior version making trend analysis much more difficult. 2.) Trump was having daily briefings in late April and early May with all fifty governors with the main topic of discussion to reopen their states as quickly as possible. From what you may recall there was almost a competition to see who could open up first in May 3.) Many states including Florida are for the most part financially insolvent or damn close to it as a result of the revenue losses due to the shutdowns. The governors are being forced to choose between the physical health of its residents or the financial insolvency of their states, its a no win situation that congress should have seen coming. This dilemma scares the hell out of me as there is currently no good outcome for this situation without a lot more contract tracing and testing. Be safe out there!

    Reply
  275. Avatar
    Richard   July 5, 2020 at 5:06 am

    Does anyone know if the virus would stay viable in a sewer system long enough to test? It would seem a good way to do community pool testing.

    Reply
  276. Avatar
    Tony   July 5, 2020 at 7:42 am

    Steven – Another point on the theory that we have had tens of thousands of cases all along and are just now counting them is the relatively flat death line for 3 months. If you look at the deaths from the beginning of April till now you’ll see they are relatively flat. My inference from that is the only thing that has changed in June and July is we are counting the people who have it that are asymptomatic while we weren’t due to lack of testing before.

    On the percent positive front – I have been thinking about this logically. In the beginning we had lack of tests and primarily focused on 3 subgroups of people. Those with symptoms, first responders, and those that were vulnerable. These people we were testing over and over to keep them safe. As capacity went up and we began testing asymptomatic people we began the phase of asymptomatic people who were exposed to the virus being tested. Seems again super logical to me that if we introduce a large group of people who are only testing because they have been exposed to the virus then we will have a higher percent positive.

    Next there’s the multiple positive phenomena. So I have had several employees and even my son contract the virus. Luckily like 99.7 percent of people under 65 that dont have a comorbidity everyone has had no issues. It takes 4 to 5 days to get the result and you cant go back to work in alot of places until you get a negative result so what do alot of people do – go every day to test knowing that there’s a 5 day lag so they could have 4 positives before getting a negative.

    Essentially the southern states are in a phase of back to work and counting likely asymptomatic people which is creating a craze of cases (that i firmly believe were there all along) while plummeting the death rate (Florida sits at 2.0 % while New York and New Jersey maintain a nearly 8.0 %)

    On that subject its just odd to me that the top 10 states in terms of death rate are republican and the worst 5 are democrat. Can that be a sheer coincidence? Those top 5 states have as many deaths as the entire rest of the US.

    I will always pound the drum of why is it we dont ask why this is?

    Reply
    • Avatar
      DeepStateProvocateur   July 5, 2020 at 9:08 am

      > My inference from that is the only thing that has changed in June and July is we are counting the people who have it that are asymptomatic while we weren’t due to lack of testing before.

      Then why are hospitalizations rising? I mean, can you detect any trend in hospitalizations between June and July?

      > On that subject its just odd to me that the top 10 states in terms of death rate are republican and the worst 5 are democrat. Can that be a sheer coincidence?

      I’m sitting here scratching my head, trying to think of any differences between New York City and South Dakota. They seem pretty much to be the same to me!

      > I will always pound the drum of why is it we dont ask why this is?

      Funny, the rest of the world looks to Trump and our numbers and says *exactly the same thing*. Ooof.

      In any case, the answer is amazingly straightforward to someone trying to come to a logic based answer, instead of someone who has a preferred answer and wants to find a way to convince themselves it is true:

      1. Population density matters. A lot. States (and municipalities) with Democratic leadership have higher population densities.

      2. The virus was spreading, largely unknown, for a long time in urban areas, *especially* NY and NJ, which comprises the overwhelming bulk of the deaths you seem to concerned about.

      3. We did not start practicing any social changes to affect the virus until a ton of growth was already baked into the population in those urban areas.

      4. The mathematics of exponential growth.

      If you think that Republican policies are great at preventing the virus (whatever those polices actually are?), why not turn your logical thinking mind toward what is happening in Arizona, Texas, and Florida? Why is Abott all of a sudden mandating masks and threatening a return to lock down?

      The virus doesn’t care if you are a Republican or a Democrat, it really doesn’t. But it is opportunistic, and Republican policies are the ones that give it the most freedom to continue spreading. This is why places that re-opened earlier, places that refused to issue mask orders are the same places seeing numbers surge. It’s not difficult to understand.

      Reply
      • Avatar
        Tony   July 9, 2020 at 10:20 am

        Then why are hospitalizations rising? I mean, can you detect any trend in hospitalizations between June and July?
        Cases up 1000 % Hospitalizations 20 % – not a strong correlation – actually emphasizes my point

        I’m sitting here scratching my head, trying to think of any differences between New York City and South Dakota. They seem pretty much to be the same to me!
        Then why do they have to have the same govt restrictions?

        1. Population density matters. A lot. States (and municipalities) with Democratic leadership have higher population densities.

        For the most part – i agree with you that this is a logical explanation. I would even add that the ones who rely more heavily on public transit have a much harder hill to climb. My only thing is thats it we just explain it away. It seems to me we are willing to calculate every decision desantis makes but just wash away mass deaths in the northeast – why not do both. Either explain away both staes or calculate every decision in both states. Fair?

        2. The virus was spreading, largely unknown, for a long time in urban areas, *especially* NY and NJ, which comprises the overwhelming bulk of the deaths you seem to concerned about.

        I think that is alot of it for sure. There are some glaring mistakes at the core of their strategy – hard to argue. Since June 1 NJ has a 20 % death rate – all other states avg less than 3 %. Why?

        3. We did not start practicing any social changes to affect the virus until a ton of growth was already baked into the population in those urban areas.

        I think thats true – but 10 times the death? If we had that as a Republican state would you be so willing to attribute?

        4. The mathematics of exponential growth.

        I’d welcome a debate solely based on math with you

        If you think that Republican policies are great at preventing the virus (whatever those polices actually are?), why not turn your logical thinking mind toward what is happening in Arizona, Texas, and Florida? Why is Abott all of a sudden mandating masks and threatening a return to lock down?

        The mass opening of the bars was a serious miscalculation in the Re-open states. Cant really get around that. This has caused Re-open states to see massive rise in asymptomatic cases that have spread unfortunately to the vulnerable. This is causing cases to skyrocket, hospitalizations and deaths to moderately increase. It was a miss and I can’t run from that. I dont think the total death caused by the miss equal the deaths caused by missing on the nursing homes in the northeast – but no democrat will concede that point.

        I believe the republican states (Florida in particular) in general did a better job of mobilizing the national guard to protect the vulnerable and that saved a ton of lives.

        Reply
  277. Avatar
    Tony   July 5, 2020 at 8:18 am

    Scott,

    My understanding is Florida is one of the few states that by law has to balance the budget every year and thus cannot go into debt. In addition Florida has a large reserve. We are depleting that reserve (which is the point of having a reserve – no rainier day than a pandemic) and with 1 billion in budget cuts – we are tightening the belt but by no means are we even close to insolvent. This isnt my area of expertise so totally welcome facts if im wrong.

    Reply
  278. Avatar
    Steven   July 5, 2020 at 8:55 am

    Tony – I’ll respond to your points in order:
    1. You point to a flat death rate as being evidence that nothing has changed, but we also had a flat new cases rate until about 3 weeks ago when it started to rise. The death rate has been consistently 3%-5% of the average of cases. That doesn’t contribute to your point at all. In fact the rising hospitalization rate supports the fact that we are not just finding people who have been asymptomatic the whole time. New people are getting sick who are ending up in the hospital

    2. You theorize that the positivity rate has increased because we are opening up the testing. The problem with that idea is that we opened up the testing to people without symptoms in early May. The spike in positivity rate didn’t come until mid-June. There was no change in who was being tested between early May and mid-June. The only thing that changed was the rate, which means that there are verifiably more people who are sick than there were before. If we were just observing this group of consistent asymptomatic people that you theorize, we would have seen them in May as well, not just suddenly appearing in June.

    3. In regards to the multiple positive phenomena, luckily our DOH is smart enough to account for that. In their daily pdf report (which I advise everybody interested in the data to look at) they show two positivity rates. One for total tests per day to total positives per day and another for total people tested compared to number of people who test positive for the first time. This second rate is the one that everybody is relying on and reporting in the media. It is the correct way to handle the data and avoids counting people multiple times like you suggested. In the past week it has ranged from 12%-15%, which is extremely high!

    4. I didn’t understand if your 99.7% comment was about your employees or in general, but there is no way that 99.7% of the general population under 65 have no comorbity. People with obesity, heart disease and diabetes are all confirmed higher risk. People with those conditions make up far more than 0.3% of the sub 65 population. If you look at the COVID numbers for Florida, those under 65 make up 47% of the hospitalizations and 19% of the deaths. This disease is not just a threat for older people.

    5. While I respect your right to have this opinion about the asymptomatic people, the data just doesn’t back it up. Of course there are and will be asymptomatics, but we were testing openly before and not showing this kind of spike in cases, positivity rate and hospitalizations. Also, our death rate is not plummeting. As you said earlier it is flat. New York and New Jersey on the other had do have a plummeting death rate. It has gone down dramatically along with their numbers of new cases.

    6. There is a very simple answer to your question of Democratic versus Republican states. The states that had the worst explosion early on were Democratic. I’m sure some would say that there is some conspiracy to this, but honestly, that’s just the way it happened. It’s discouraging that you are being so political about this. Republican states have seen an explosion of cases and hospitalizations recently, but you don’t focus on that. This virus doesn’t care about our politics! If we as individuals, or our political leaders allow political motivations to influence our response to this pandemic it will end badly for all of us.

    Reply
  279. Avatar
    Tara   July 5, 2020 at 9:37 am

    FWIW, my son’s workplace was exposed to the virus about 4 weeks ago by a visitor to the office. All 50 or so employees were tested. 9 tested positive. All 9 presented symptoms within 2 weeks of exposure.

    1-hospitalization (53, male, said to be “not in the greatest health to begin with“)
    2-shortness of breath, high fever
    6-sore throat, low fever, fatigue

    All 9 are well on the road to recovery.

    Reply
  280. Avatar
    Tony   July 5, 2020 at 10:58 am

    Ok
    Point 1 – Well taken – i guess i dont understand why the death amounts ramped up so quickly to 3-5 % if there is a month lag with out there being cases we didn’t know about but your right we havent had ramped up cases and flat death rate long enough for my theory to proven valid or not. Seems super logical to me that if the same absolute amount of people are dying for 3 months and then we all of sudden have triple to quadruple the testing and we “reveal” more cases that there was rampant undetected infections in the previous months.

    Point 2 – I wholly disagree that we were testing the same group of people in Mid May then the end of June. In mid may you were encouraged not to test unless you had symptoms but quarantine do to lack of tests (our 7 day test avg was 10,000 then) and now virtually anyone is encouraged to test who has been exposed (7 day avg is 30,000). That is a significant change in strategy of who you are testing.

    Point 3 – I didnt know that – that is helpful information for sure.

    Point 4 – If you go to the Worldometer website for the US and click on footnote number 1 for New York it will take you to the state of new york website – click on fatality data. This isnt breitbart or fox news – its literally the data collected by the state of new york. You will find that 89 % of deaths had a comorbidity (some of which are the ones you mentioned – my 99.7 comment points to those any age that dont have a comorbidity) and 85 % of people were older than 60. Their data not mine. Its safe to assume that Florida breakdown is similar (maybe not but statistically its probably similar). So if only 2 % of all people who contract in florida die and we know that in general a large portion of those are older than 60 and or have a comorbidity then its safe to assume those that do not have a comorbidity and are younger are going to have an enormously high survival rate ( 99.7 might be light if you run out the math). This is why i make the point time and time again that the message of protecting those with commodities and/or older should be the one singular message all media pound.

    Point 5 – Part A. The data overwhelmingly points to a decrease in the avg age of positive cases for those 30 and under. Before June the avg age of positives was in the 50’s and now has gone all the way to the 30’s. This clearly points to different groups being tested.

    Part B – I never said the (or didnt mean to) death rate is flat – more the absolute value is flat. The rate has gone from 5 % in april and may to 2 % overall with june being 1.1 % and July .5 % so far. The hopitalization rate has went from 20 % in april and may to 4 % in June and 3 % in July. Meanwhile New York has went from 8 % death rate to 4.5 % death rate (so their plummeting number matches our all time high).

    Point 6 – I will never understand why its simply taboo to ask the question when its clear the data is different. If the states were all divisions of your company you would not just initially excuse the data – you would dig in and make sure there isnt a systematic problem. I would never let a manger just give me a simple answer to a problem in data without proof that they thoroughly dug into it.

    I didnt make this virus political – the media did and im sorry but im gonna call it like i see it. It doesn’t have to be nasty but its worth a conversation. BTW if it was reversed Id still want to know why and Id be the first in line asking those republican states what wasn’t working. In the end I think not asking the questions is equally as political as asking them.

    I believe some states implemented strategies that made them more successful than others and I want to know what they are so we can save lives in all states.

    Reply
  281. Avatar
    Richard   July 5, 2020 at 12:31 pm

    Tony, There are some political animals in these comments. You are not one of them.
    Thanks for all your work!

    Reply
  282. Avatar
    Tara   July 5, 2020 at 1:09 pm

    BTW, all those 9 people at my son’s workplace are Republicans. ?

    Reply
  283. Avatar
    Tara   July 5, 2020 at 1:11 pm

    That ? was meant to be a “joking” emoji.

    Reply
  284. Avatar
    Clif   July 5, 2020 at 1:29 pm

    Holy crap there are a bunch of Andrew Gillum voters here today! Still wanting to prove they know a good leader when they hear their facts bahaha

    Reply
  285. Avatar
    MIB   July 5, 2020 at 6:57 pm

    I keephoping for animated GIS maps, showing the increases, e.g. in each county, over time. Not number change or percentage change; those are too easy to make deceptive. Just the numbers. Maybe with each county white ot black, then filling up with color. Then you could, if one must, use different colors for the rate of change at different times.

    Yah, I kerp wishing Johns Hopkins showed the percentages — what percentage of population confirmed infected, what percentage of population died from actual Wuhan/SARS-cov-2/ncov vs. how many died from traffic wreck, falling off the porch, etc., who happened to have antibodies. But the data are already contaminated, so good luck getting that.

    It looks like job markets are 25%-50% back from the pandemic to pre-pandemic levels (depending on indicator). We still are about 36M-39M jobs short of full employment.

    Reply
  286. Avatar
    Seunghan Nam   July 6, 2020 at 1:57 am

    Well, still no spike in death. What’s the CFR now? Feel like there should be definitely a spike in death. Of course, tomorrow, we don’t know. I hope there is no spike in death.

    Reply
  287. Avatar
    Tony Hartsgrove   July 6, 2020 at 2:26 pm

    Well DeSantis doesn’t seem too worried. Said the median age of positives this week was in 20’s. Says he thinks there was same rate of people who had it in earlier months but we weren’t testing asymptomatic. Sounds familiar but I cant place where I’ve heard that theory before…

    I would imagine if we were bracing for the same death rate as NY we’d be outfitting convention centers as hospitals but we aren’t.

    Reply
  288. Avatar
    Marvcus Patton   July 6, 2020 at 5:12 pm

    Good news for my Floridian geniuses who want to dig deep into the Johns Hopkins numbers. People are complaining about the bubble graphs and charts. Hence, if you spent some time and explored their data, perhaps you can write your own detailed analyses in what you are seeing.

    https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/

    This isn’t some left wing or right wing issue. For goodness sake, its called a public health crisis and we are not managing it in any responsible way whatsoever.

    Wear a mask, stay away from large crowds, and sanitize. It’s not rocket science and it shouldn’t be a political issue.

    Reply
  289. Avatar
    Marci   July 6, 2020 at 6:10 pm

    I hesitated to post my experience, because it doesn’t match any reports. But, here goes.

    I believe my husband and I both had the coronavirus. We had what began as very runny nose, followed by weeks of extreme fatigue. During this time, our kids visited. One kid went back home and experienced high fever and shortness of breath. He said he felt awful.

    I hesitate to say this, because this happened at the end of December, in Florida. I have several relatives in Florida who experienced similar symptoms in Jan-Feb. All of us have tested negative for antibodies.

    As people we know are now testing positive, they all have the same symptoms we had back in December, save for one who is hospitalized, but was always having health issues for years prior.

    My point is, this thing has been around for a while. Everything they say about it keeps changing. And it will continue to change for years until they can examine all the data and all the test resEverything they say about it keeps changing. And it will continue to change for years until they can examine all the data and all the test results

    So for all of you getting excited about the upward trends in Florida, I would suggest we all calm down and wait to see how this whole thing plays out. Because no one has any idea what is really going on with this.

    Reply
  290. Avatar
    glenn taylor   July 7, 2020 at 5:59 am

    Tony, even if we were expecting the same death rate as New York why would we outfit convention centers? New York outfitted two hospital ships and Central Park with tent hospitals and didn’t use them.

    Reply
  291. Avatar
    Tony   July 7, 2020 at 8:49 am

    Great Point Glenn

    Interesting Florida hospitalization rate (7.9%) is virtually the same as New York Death Rate (7.6%)

    Florida Death Rate is 1.88 % (1/4 of New York)

    Reply
  292. Avatar
    Tara   July 7, 2020 at 10:21 am

    New York also outfitted the Javits Convention Center and it was largely unused. It had a 2500 bed capacity, and treated a total of about 1100 patients before they closed it in early May.

    Reply
  293. Avatar
    Tony   July 7, 2020 at 10:27 am

    Yep – Even though they sent thousands of patients to nursing homes and made them accept them even with all the capacity of ships and convention center.

    Cuomo shouldn’t get voted out – he should be in jail

    Reply
  294. Pingback: The Media and The Crisis – Media Value

  295. Avatar
    Richard   July 7, 2020 at 5:24 pm

    The fear mongers are currently trying to assert that that being sick and recovering does not confer immunity. I can’t find any actual evidence for that assertion.

    This article (from NPR, no less) seems to provide evidence FOR immunity:
    https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2020/05/22/861061727/south-korean-study-shows-no-evidence-recovered-covid-patients-can-infect-others

    Some articles claim that COVID-19 antibodies do not last more than several months. The South Korean study avoids that question by testing for reinfection rather than presence or absence of antibodies. I think that’s the correct approach.

    Reply
    • Avatar
      DeepStateProvocateur   July 8, 2020 at 7:51 am

      Hi Richard –

      > The fear mongers are currently trying to assert that that being sick and recovering does not confer immunity.

      It is currently an open question.

      https://www.the-scientist.com/news-opinion/studies-report-rapid-loss-of-covid-19-antibodies-67650

      The NPR article you cite has nothing to do with wether or not you can get sick with COVID again after testing positive, but rather, if people who tested positive but recover can get *other* people sick. Also, in the age of covid science, this is a relatively old article.

      > The South Korean study avoids that question by testing for reinfection rather than presence or absence of antibodies. I think that’s the correct approach.

      Why do you think it is the correct approach though? You seem to conflate two different questions, though I have no idea why:

      1) Can people who test positive, then recover, subsequently infect others? (This is the basis of the NPR article)

      “Health officials there studied 285 patients who tested negative for the virus after recovering, but weeks later tested positive again. The question — in this and similar situations — is whether a positive test in this circumstance means that these people can still spread the virus.” – From the NPR article you cited. (OMG, you cited NPR!)

      2) Can people who test positive, get sick again at a later time? (This is the basis of antibody studies).

      “A pair of studies published this week is shedding light on the duration of immunity following COVID-19, showing patients lose their IgG antibodies—the virus-specific, slower-forming antibodies associated with long-term immunity—within weeks or months after recovery. With COVID-19, most people who become infected do produce antibodies, and even small amounts can still neutralize the virus in vitro, according to earlier work. These latest studies could not determine if a lack of antibodies leaves people at risk of reinfection.” — From the page I linked.

      Antibodies give us insight into whether we can keep from ourselves the same disease again; they don’t tell us anything about whether or not people who recover can get *other* people sick. This isn’t fear mongering, but it seems like you are missing some basic immunology knowledge. (?)

      Reply
  296. Avatar
    Tara   July 7, 2020 at 6:43 pm

    I live in Florida. For the past 5 days, we had late afternoon thunderstorms, high winds, and drenching rains, that lasted for about an hour. Just like we always do this time of year— June through August. These storms move rapidly, but are accepted in Florida as everyday occurrences around 4 pm or so. If this coronavirus can live though an hour a day of the voltage of thunderstorms, heavy rains, and winds, then the rest of the country has a shitload more to worry about.

    Reply
  297. Avatar
    Tara   July 7, 2020 at 9:23 pm

    haha

    Reply
  298. Pingback: July 6: Tracking Florida COVID-19 Cases, Hospitalizations, and ... - MyPPE Retail Store

  299. Avatar
    lymond   July 8, 2020 at 12:12 pm

    Can we get a green arrow for when the protests started and people ignored social distancing guidelines? Seems like that is more is relevant than when the Phase 2 re-opening was.

    Reply
    • Avatar
      Msg   July 8, 2020 at 3:52 pm

      It’s only if more relevant if more people attended the protests than started going to restaurants, bars, stores, gyms, hair salons, etc, etc, etc after the Phase 2 reopenings. You think that’s very likely?

      Reply
      • Avatar
        Marc   July 9, 2020 at 5:16 am

        It might be relevant if all the protestors that congregated before Phase 2 started going to restaurants, bars, stores, gyms, hair salons, etc, etc, etc. That seems pretty likely. Whether or not that actually contributed to this rapid spread is unknown But the point is they were given a free pass by the media. That is what is so annoying and that is why politics gets brought up. If they were protesting for conservative values, they would not have been given a free pass And that is very likely, don’t you think?

        Reply
        • Avatar
          Tony   July 9, 2020 at 8:17 am

          It is transmitted in close contact. Pretty logical that there was mass transmission in both the protests and the re – open. The protests were significant enough in my opinion to track cases after. On the media point – hard to argue that they went through great lengths to track the spread in tulsa. It just shows hypocrisy that they dont also track spread in giant cities with protests is all.

          Reply
        • Avatar
          DeepStateProvocateur   July 9, 2020 at 8:52 am

          > But the point is they were given a free pass by the media.

          Gov De(ath) Santice already went full in on opening up before BLM; we were among the last to close, never had any serious mandates on distancing or masks, failed to close beaches for Spring Break, and were the first to do a victory lap. The policies have aged like milk, but it’s the media’s fault for being annoying.

          > If they were protesting for conservative values, they would not have been given a free pass

          I love how ‘let’s have cops stop murdering people’ is not a conservative value. That could be part of the problem, you know.

          Reply
          • Avatar
            Tony   July 9, 2020 at 10:00 am

            I don’t like to argue with people who don’t concede obvious points.

            Police brutality is an issue for sure. As a conservative – I welcome the protests and hope they bring real change. I dont want there to be 1 jerk on our fine police force and everything we can do to make that happen is welcome. Not sure I have found one conservative who thinks otherwise actually.

            The point was really safety is safety and its hard to argue the difference in treatment.

            I would say I love how not wanting to be jobless and lose your life savings when you know you can be safe but a governor arbitrarily deems you not essential should not – not be a liberal value.

            The reality is the police brutality movement was important to who it was important to enough to protest (American Right) and the right to work was important to who it was important to enough to protest (American Right). While both were important both to the scale they were done put lives at danger and for whatever reason trump condoned one and not the other and the media condoned one and not the other – both based on their own agenda not a fair look at what was important to the people. Both of these bias cause us to question their motives on carona virus because they consistently flip to the other side when convenient.

            Trump and the media are in a feud that both are politicizing tragedy and its at Americas expense.

  300. Avatar
    Williams Dunning   July 8, 2020 at 8:59 pm

    Now, with the virus running rampant, Punkin Head wants to send all the kids back to school, without benefit of the CDCs scientific recommendations.

    Reply
    • Avatar
      Tony   July 9, 2020 at 8:21 am

      No question his methods suck. In my mind there is no question that its worth a conversation as to exploring every way to make it happen for the competing negative effects and the long term damage.

      His methods and the predictable Never Trump response leave us with this binary he wants to kill Americans / No other way to achieve safety but closure continuum.

      Frustrating to me because I truly believe if we banned trump and the media from the island we could all find compromise relatively quickly

      Reply
      • Avatar
        Richard   July 10, 2020 at 8:47 am

        The left never compromises.

        Reply
  301. Avatar
    Karen   July 8, 2020 at 9:41 pm

    Our death rate is only so much better than New York’s if we aren’t undercounting COVID deaths significantly. I’m not at all convinced that’s the case… see this thread

    https://twitter.com/DrSeaPerle/status/1280958220891193344

    Reply
    • Avatar
      Tony   July 9, 2020 at 8:27 am

      The skeptic in me believes this is a stat you will believe if your a liberal and not if your a conservative. Like viewing a pass interference call from opposing teams.

      There are like 20 states in US with similar Death Rate and Florida lines up with all the states in the South. So far the Death Rate has shown consistency by Region (Democratic North Carolina is similar to Republican Georgia in the south – Republican Massachusetts is similar to Democratic New York)

      Its also hard to imaging with the hard to argue with the obvious left slant of the media – there would not be more traction nationally (cnn) to the Desantis is fudging the numbers theory. There would have to be alot of complicit people to pull that off.

      Reply
  302. Avatar
    Tara   July 9, 2020 at 7:44 am

    Twitter is cesspool of vitriol. With the shutdown, it got progressively worse. I have deactivated my account and my life has improved. 🙂

    There will be people who need to believe that Florida is a mass of dead bodies. Nothing will dissuade them, not numbers, not testimony, nothing. They will come up with facts and innuendo and anything else that feeds into the narrative they choose to create. Accusing Florida officials of lying is no surprise.

    Reply
  303. Avatar
    Tara   July 9, 2020 at 8:01 am

    The next few weeks will be tense for sure in Florida. It remains to be seen if the number of deaths will rise considerably. Staying off Twitter can only help when it comes to staying as calm as possible.

    And just to say, my post about Florida’s afternoon storms is what happens when you quarantine yourself and sit on your lanai watching a thunderstorm with your husband and a bottle of wine. Lesson: never drink and post. Ever.

    Reply
  304. Avatar
    Bob   July 9, 2020 at 9:50 am

    Thanks Karen, when I want the truth, Twitter is always the first place I check.

    Reply
    • Avatar
      Tony   July 9, 2020 at 10:01 am

      Perfect

      Reply
  305. Avatar
    Tara   July 9, 2020 at 10:54 am

    Ughhh….I can hear the salivating media now….Florida tops all time high in deaths…for the first time, over 100 in a day. Now they can go back to talking about deaths, and not cases.

    Reply
    • Avatar
      DeepStateProvocateur   July 9, 2020 at 12:39 pm

      @Tara –

      Well, hasn’t the steady drum beat from our fearless leader been: “Our deathrate is low, so my decisions haven’t been proven to be a disaster”? (yet) They could also talk about cases, seeing how as 18% of tests came back positive. They could also talk about how our hospitalization rates are shooting up also.

      I mean, it was like Monday when the governor insisted aloud that our cases were ‘stabilizing’; I just don’t see how it is the media’s fault for reporting factual information. You seem to be more bothered about the fact that it violates some narrative (we’ve stabilized!) vs the reality of the situation.

      What would you have the media report? Nothing? At least it wasn’t 200 dead Floridians today? Should they redefine what stabilized means? What do you want?

      Reply
      • Avatar
        Tony   July 9, 2020 at 2:05 pm

        I agree with you – it’s not the media’s fault the cases are up. My suspicion is more that Tara is frustrated that there isn’t more emphasis when the numbers are good but only when they are bad.

        Shooting up is hardly a the correct explanation of the hospitalization rate. Certainly an unwelcome upward trend.

        Desantis and all other early open Governors need to be held accountable in the court of public opinion for opening up the bars to 100 %. I would also have to admit that not requiring masks is not making much sense with the data we have.

        Most of the other businesses I think are able to operate with masks and social distancing.

        In the end there have been giant mistakes made by literally every leader involved. We would do well as a nation to not excuse the ones that are from people with our beliefs and not the ones from those that arent.

        Reply
        • Avatar
          DeepStateProvocateur   July 9, 2020 at 6:59 pm

          > My suspicion is more that Tara is frustrated that there isn’t more emphasis when the numbers are good but only when they are bad.

          But the numbers were never good, they were just fantasies, the equivalent of being up two touchdowns at the end of the first quarter and then declaring victory. Yes, our numbers were low initially, but it didn’t have anything to do with our lockdown-lite or some other facet of our “plan” that leadership put in place. It was a function of geography (more initial vectors from China went to NYC compared to say, Miami) and NYC looking like a total disaster, very likely as a function of a combination of extremely high population density and transmission in the subways. Once Florida started getting *hot* people started congregating indoors, which is wear COVID spreads best.

          I mean, it would be one thing if the Governor had given any explanation as to which of his initiatives were responsible for our low rate, but instead, he simply declared mission accomplished, opened up the state, and conservatives penned a piece about him being due an apology. Oh the irony.

          > Shooting up is hardly a the correct explanation of the hospitalization rate. Certainly an unwelcome upward trend.

          OK. It’s going to get worse until we go back to lockdown though, and it won’t stop getting worse for a few weeks after we go into lockdown. Every day that DeSantis ignores this reality puts us deeper in the hole. The virus is going to keep spreading no matter how many explanations he tries to use to explain why our growing numbers aren’t a disaster in the making.

          > Most of the other businesses I think are able to operate with masks and social distancing.

          It would help if we had a statewide mandate for it. But even then, I don’t think lots of businesses are well suited for it; everyone wants other people making their food, but kitchens in professional restaurants, and fast food, are cramped. You can’t social distance. Sure, you can where a mask, but I was at Metro Deli three weeks ago and no one in the place was wearing one. (This was before the county mandate, no idea if they have changed habits). But the point is, there are a lot of places still open where it is not really possible to be 6 feet from someone.

          > I would also have to admit that not requiring masks is not making much sense with the data we have.

          We are in complete agreement. But take a look at the thread on this site about the lawsuit in Leon county regarding the masks; Republicans are suing the county commission over it, and other Republican’s are cheering it on. He cannot mandate masks because he angers a significant portion of his base, a subset of people that are seemingly immune to the benefits of masks.

          > In the end there have been giant mistakes made by literally every leader involved.

          Won’t disagree much. What about the governor of Michigan? They have half our population, and when a bunch of armed people came to the capital to protest mask wearing, she held fast. When our President referred to her as ‘that woman’, she held fast and did unpopular things in name of public safety. Now, they’ve been averaging We would do well as a nation to not excuse the ones that are from people with our beliefs and not the ones from those that aren’t.

          I agree.

          Reply
          • Avatar
            Tony   July 9, 2020 at 8:19 pm

            Maybe,

            This world you live in where there was this obvious perfect solution that we didnt follow is kinda hard for me to get behind but who knows.

            The death rates in Europe are a joke – a joke. Why are they so high because they dont report cases – or they just dont take care of the people – its one or the other

            My biggest frustration with you is that you excuse every early – northern – death as not their fault and wear out lately when in the end Florida would have to have 120 deaths for like 250 days to equal new york today (not adding the deaths they will have in those days. We will end up with the same cases and a 1/3 of the casualties and we will not leave our grandkids with trillions in debt (but hey debt, economy – thats just some things the republicans made up because their greedy – theres no actual long term ramifications to ignoring them). But that wasnt new yorks fault and 100 % Floridas

            Governors have to actually making decisions with tho whole of safety, economy, and society in account. You get to wait for bad new and pick at them. Your world of perfection of minimal deaths would have had some catastrophic side effects but you dont have to live with that decision – you just live with reporting all the obvious bad decision.

            The governor of Michigan is one of the biggest hypocrites there is. Trump will win Michigan – not because he deserves to but because of people hating her.

            BTW – I guarantee you that when northern states open up as it is inevitable (because society will demand it) – their cases will skyrocket (amazingly deaths will rise moderately but the death rate will plummet) and that wont be their fault somehow.

            I also predict Republican states will never end up with more than 60 % of Democratic States in casualties

  306. Avatar
    Pete   July 9, 2020 at 2:41 pm

    COVID-19 Cases are Rising, So Why Are Deaths Flatlining?
    1. Deaths lag cases, and that may explain almost everything.
    2. Expanded testing is finding more cases, milder cases, and earlier cases.
    3. The typical COVID-19 patient is getting younger.
    4. Hospitalized patients are dying less frequently, even without a home-run treatment.
    5. Summer might be helping – but probably only a little bit.

    When President Trump and others point exclusively to lagging death figures during a surge, they are trying to tell you that America is, secretly, winning the war on COVID-19. But we’re not. The summer surge is an exceptionally American failure, born of absent leadership and terrible public-health communication.

    After all the graphs, statistics, science, and interpretations, we’re left with a simple fact: Hundreds of Americans are dying every day of a disease that is infecting several hundred thousand of them every week. If that’s success, let’s pray we never see failure.
    Source: https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/07/why-covid-death-rate-down/613945/

    Reply
    • Avatar
      DeepStateProvocateur   July 9, 2020 at 7:04 pm

      > The summer surge is an exceptionally American failure, born of absent leadership and terrible public-health communication.

      It is downright embarrassing when you look at US numbers vs Canada and the EU. We were already a laughing stock of non-stop Trump platitudes before COVID, and now, the EU is actively banning travelers from the US because of how badly we’ve botched our ‘response’. Remember when the President’s son in law, inexplicably put in charge of the response went on TV in late April and proclaimed:

      “We’re on the other side of the medical aspect of this,” he told Fox News on Wednesday with a smooth smile. “The federal government rose to the challenge, and this is a great success story.””

      What planet are these people living on?

      Reply
      • Avatar
        Tony   July 9, 2020 at 8:22 pm

        The real one where we have to make big boy decisions and dont live on unemployment provided by the people who have to really make decisions.

        Reply
        • Avatar
          DeepStateProvocateur   July 10, 2020 at 7:50 am

          > The real one

          LOL, so in the real world the federal response ‘rose to the challenge and this is a great success story’? I mean, would you call the federal response a ‘great success story?’

          I mean, if you want to argue about the economics, that’s fine, but if you think the federal response has been outstanding, I am sort of at a loss for words. I guess I would start with, what federal response?

          Reply
    • Avatar
      Richard   July 10, 2020 at 9:15 am

      Pete, Please enlighten us with your foolproof short and long term strategy for the pandemic. Please avoid unicorn-based solutions. Please explain why – given the fact that totally effective vaccines have never been developed for Corona viruses – the human race has managed to survive so far. Specifically, please let us know exactly why viruses have died out in the past.

      Perhaps you can cite other articles by leftist Trump haters to help you make your points.

      Reply
  307. Avatar
    Gary   July 9, 2020 at 3:47 pm

    Today showed the highest hospitalizations and the highest deaths. Let’s hope this isn’t the beginning of something much worse.

    But let’s prayer that we are not sending our children back to school without a better plan than we have had as adults.

    Reply
  308. Avatar
    Cynthia Rogers   July 9, 2020 at 8:03 pm

    to all of you people leaving comments on this page I have some questions: have you gone to get groceries since mid March? If so then why? Do you all have income independent from the economy? ie government checks etc?

    Reply
    • Avatar
      Richard   July 10, 2020 at 9:18 am

      We have our groceries delivered by Publix and Amazon. I was laid off effective May 1 and we are living on retirement funds and Social Security.

      Reply
  309. Avatar
    Tara   July 9, 2020 at 9:16 pm

    @DeepStateProvocateur

    I want a media that reports the facts without bias. I want a forum where it isn’t apparent some are hoping for the worst in order to blame politicians they hate. I want politicians that don’t act like a bunch of high school mean kids at best, and megalomaniacs at worst. Silly me.

    I was born and raised in NJ. I moved to NY after I married. I worked in NYC for 30 years. I have many friends and relatives still in NJ/NY. I do not personally know a single person who was hospitalized, let alone died, from Covid. I do not personally know a single person who knows someone personally who was hospitalized or died from Covid, save for one woman who died but had stage 4 lung cancer. I know quite a few who tested positive and had mild symptoms. I know several who think they had it earlier. I know a few people who keep coming up with people they know who know someone that is related to someone who died without any underlying conditions.

    Maybe I and everyone I know are just lucky, I don’t know, but I do know I’m tired of the never-ending stress and fear-mongering with this godforsaken virus.

    Reply
    • Avatar
      Richard   July 10, 2020 at 9:19 am

      Thanks for your thoughtful post.

      Reply
  310. Avatar
    Tara   July 10, 2020 at 6:52 am

    If you’re concerned about the virus, quarantine yourself and hope for the best. Gloating and Monday morning quarterbacking is just annoying and doesn’t help. If you feel your leaders are letting you down or your neighbors are letting you down, don’t waste your energy by using it as an excuse to mock and demean. Do something constructive about it instead. I’m sure people who figured out whom to blame can figure out what to do. If you have young children and are afraid of their going back to school, homeschool them. If you are a teacher and are afraid for your life if you have to go back to a classroom, don’t go. Offer to teach online classes. I expect you won’t get much of an argument. Make it work for you. I suspect the schools’ opening date will be postponed, who knows. The point is, most people are good, honest souls. In times like this, we would all be comforted if we work together towards a common goal. We can do it, we are doing it, despite sometimes going off track with looking to blame.

    Reply
    • Avatar
      Richard   July 10, 2020 at 9:20 am

      Wow! Great post! Thanks!

      Reply
  311. Avatar
    DeepStateProvocateur   July 10, 2020 at 7:59 am

    @Tara –

    > I want a media that reports the facts without bias.

    The fact that our rolling 7 day average went to 120 deaths is simply a fact. It isn’t bias.

    > I want politicians that don’t act like a bunch of high school mean kids at best, and megalomaniacs at worst.

    Don’t vote Republican then.

    > Maybe I and everyone I know are just lucky, I don’t know, but I do know I’m tired of the never-ending stress and fear-mongering with this godforsaken virus.

    I mean, you saw the video of the refrigerator trucks used to store bodies because the morgues were overwhelmed, right?

    Reply
    • Avatar
      Tara   July 10, 2020 at 12:19 pm

      OK, my last visit and comment here for a while because it’s getting hot in here. 🙂

      @DeepStateProvocateur
      Of course I am not talking about stating facts as being biased. I am talking about our current media which is very slanted in its quest to find blame and to be inflammatory.

      I saw Nancy Pelosi rip up a copy of the SOTU address behind Trump’s back on national TV. You can’t get more high school mean girl than that. Is that any way for grown, elected official to act, and is that any example to be setting for our youth? I agree the Republicans are just as bad. The whole political system has gone bananas!

      And, no, I did not see the video, although I heard of a funeral parlor owner who was accepting more bodies than he could handle and putting them in a U Haul. I would like to see the video.

      Reply
  312. Avatar
    Pete   July 10, 2020 at 8:17 am

    @Tara –
    >I do not personally know a single person who was hospitalized, let alone died, from Covid. I do not personally know a single person who knows someone personally who was hospitalized or died from Covid.

    Allow me to introduce myself. My Aunt died of COVID-19. My sister and her family all got it in February- thankfully were not hospitalized, but they were severely ill. Her friend is still living with severe symptoms five months later.

    So now you know one person. Does that give you more empathy than seeing 130,000 Americans dead? If I told you they were white, upper-middle class Christian Republicans, would that make you care more?

    You go on to say, “I’m tired of the never-ending stress and fear-mongering of this virus.” So go out. Enjoy yourself. Have a great time at church, restaurants, shopping. I hope you don’t get sick.

    But if you do get sick with this horrible disease (and don’t die), maybe then you will have a shred of empathy for your fellow man. Bless your heart.

    Reply
    • Avatar
      Richard   July 10, 2020 at 9:24 am

      Mind reading lack of empathy. Sarcasm. You should be ashamed.

      Reply
  313. Avatar
    Tara   July 10, 2020 at 8:43 am

    You don’t know me. Your post was mean-spirited and filled with assumptions about me to fit your own narrative. You live in your mind, I don’t.

    Reply
    • Avatar
      Pete   July 10, 2020 at 11:30 am

      My narrative is that attitudes like yours are contributing to people not adhering to prudent public health recommended behaviors. As a result, more people are getting sick, and more people are dying. My post was not intended to be mean-spirited, but I will admit to anger. I was reading your words and got angry with your attitude.

      Your simplistic solutions – “If you are concerned, just quarantine yourself” – ignore the many people on the front lines trying to take care of us. Grocery store workers, health professionals. They can’t quarantine themselves. And the jerks not wearing masks in the stores put workers’ lives at risk. “Homeschool your kids” – and hold down a full time job if you are able to work remotely?

      I stand by my comments that you lack empathy. I am glad you don’t live in my mind.

      Reply
      • Avatar
        Tara   July 10, 2020 at 11:45 am

        I stand by my assessment that you need to create a person in your mind. For whatever reason, it apparently comforts you. If you read my previous posts, you would see that I have elected to quarantine myself until this blows over, and in my private life I encourage all those my age to do the same. I shouldn’t have to explain myself to you. And stop trying to keep your idea of me in your mind by quoting me and putting your own meaning into what I say. Can’t you find someone else to bother?

        Reply
      • Avatar
        DeepStateProvocateur   July 10, 2020 at 2:00 pm

        @Pete –

        > My narrative is that attitudes like yours are contributing to people not adhering to prudent public health recommended behaviors. As a result, more people are getting sick, and more people are dying. My post was not intended to be mean-spirited, but I will admit to anger. I was reading your words and got angry with your attitude.

        Dead on. People are advocating attitudes that affect the health of everyone in the society, then get their snowflakes melted if you tell them t