In the Arena: Pre-Election Voter Turnout

In the Arena:  Pre-Election Voter Turnout

Over the last four Presidential general elections 74% of Florida’s registered voters turned out to cast ballots.  When the Florida Division of Elections and Leon County Supervisor of Elections report a percentage of the vote is in, they are running that number against 100% when it should be put against the last four average turnouts of 74%.

As of Thursday morning, statewide 29.5% of the voters have already cast ballots which means if the average turnout of 74% is met then 40% of Florida voters have done their civic duty already.

In Leon County more than 59,000 ballots have already been cast.  By election day it is likely that 60%+ of the ballots will have already been received by the Supervisor of Elections.  The days of precinct in person voting and neighborhood polling locations are numbered.

Florida uses an absentee ballot system.  In Florida, each voter must take an affirmative step to receive an absentee ballot through the mail.

In universal mail ballot jurisdictions, the elections office mails a ballot to the last known address of every individual voter.  No affirmative step needs to be taken by the individual voters.  The nine universal mail ballot jurisdictions are:  California; Colorado; Hawaii; Nevada; New Jersey; Oregon; Utah (county opt in but all counties opted in); Vermont; and, Washington, DC.

In a detailed review of six states polling data, including Florida, there are some consistent findings across red, blue, and purple states.  In every poll the percentage of voters that declare they have made up their mind and there is no chance of them changing it is over 95%.  In Florida 40% of the likely voters have already voted so we know they are not changing their mind.

Another key finding is that 94% of the Democratic voters are voting for Biden and 94% of the Republicans are voting for Trump.  There are no party disloyal voters to speak of this year.  Some of the 6% that are going the other way loudly announce they are doing so but when 19 of 20 stay loyal and the number of defectors is the same in each party those defections cancel each other out, so no real change.

A final finding confirms what every interested political observer already knew.  Independents are turning out at a significantly lower rate than either Republicans or Democratic voters.

In Leon County 32% of the Democratic voters have already cast ballot and statewide that number is 37%.  Republican turnout in Leon County is 24% and statewide it is 28%.  No party affiliation and minor party affiliation turnout in Leon County is 17% and statewide it is 22%.

When you look at the total number of ballots cast in Leon County the party split is 64-23% in the Democratic Party’s favor.  Statewide the Democrats have a 45-34% advantage.  Independents only make up 13% of the turnout in Leon County but statewide it is 20%.

Polling suggests in all six states reviewed that independents are favoring Biden over Trump.

Four years ago, there was an October surprise that shifted at least one or two percentage points from one party to the other.  Eleven days before the 2016 election, on October 28th, FBI Director James Comey sent a letter to Congress announcing he was reopening the Hillary Clinton email probe even though he closed it earlier.  Comey’s announcement helped Trump to narrowly carry Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin and by so doing, win the Presidency.

The President is attempting to get an FBI investigation going on Biden’s son (which he has been doing for over a year and go impeached for his effort).  With days to go that effort is not going to influence enough voters to change the trajectory of this election.

All the television and mailing advertisements, all the news coverage, are almost inconsequential because a large number of voters have already cast their ballots.

Jon M. Ausman is the longest serving member of the Democratic National Committee in Florida’s history (December 1992 to January 2017).  He can be reached at ausman@embarqmail.com or at 850-321-7799.

5 Responses to "In the Arena: Pre-Election Voter Turnout"

  1. Avatar
    Edward Lyle   October 23, 2020 at 10:46 am

    My five takeaways from last nights debate:

    1. The moderator did a slightly better job than Wallace did at masking her clear bias. But her questions to President Trump were framed in a declarative and accusatory manner, while her questions to Dementia Joe were more in line with “which pudding flavor would your like for desert”

    2. As was the case at the first debate, the Biden campaign violated the rules and pre-staged notes at Dementia Joes podium. And as was the case at the first debate, when the debate ended, DJ just nonchalantly folded them up and shuffled off stage… BUT… last night he forgot a few, so you’ll see a staffer follow behind DJ and quickly grab the rest off of his podium.

    3. President Trump remained calm and in command of the facts… as Dementia Joe babbled aimlessly, lied incessantly, lost his train of thought on several occasions, and also lost his temper… appearing like a senile ol’ man standing on his porch in his bathrobe, and yelling at his mailbox to get off his lawn.

    4. Like the Clinton, Obama, Pelosi, Schumer, et Al… Crime Families… the Dementia Joe Boden Crime Family has made a fortune by stealing from and selling out our Nation. Our enemies around the world OWN the Biden Family… and there’s no denying it anymore.

    5. And finally… if not most importantly… if we allow the Demunists to steal this election – or worse yet; willing give these treasonous criminals control of our Nation – then we deserve the destructive results of our ignorance.

    Reply
  2. Avatar
    Hope   October 22, 2020 at 7:06 pm

    Jon writes:

    “The President is attempting to get an FBI investigation going on Biden’s son (which he has been doing for over a year and go [sic] impeached for his effort). With days to go that effort is not going to influence enough voters to change the trajectory of this election.”

    The president was questioning a breach of security by Biden. It appears that Biden used his son to breach our national security for monetary gain for himself and his family. Trump is a hero for bringing this to the attention of the American people.

    The Democratic Party “Impeachment Gang” are on the take themselves and enriching themselves through channels that are questionable if not illegal. They should be considered co-conspirators with Biden and be prosecuted for the impeachment fiasco.

    This security breach by Biden is serious and perhaps if Jon spent more time being concerned about ethics and character rather than skewing absurd bogus poll numbers his party could get back on track. Not only is the Democratic party off-track in Leon County it is a nationwide train wreck.

    Reply
  3. Avatar
    Snidely Whiplash   October 22, 2020 at 6:35 pm

    I’m thinking Democrat minorities know who gave them the greatest economic advantages in the entire history of the planet during the first Trump term and will vote accordingly.
    Democratic minorities went for Hillary as expected back in 2016 and the DNC is in a deep crack this time which they can not work or cheat themselves out of.
    That’s the big elephant in the room the left pretends not to see.
    In my opinion no amount of mail in cheating can overcome the inevitable 2020 Republican landslide trifecta of White House, Senate, and House of Representatives.
    Riots by whiney diaper babies are expected after the election but will be put down quickly.
    Wait for it and rejoice my fine Americans!
    Jon’s really a decent dude who should be allowed to enjoy his statistical fantasy for a few weeks. Dont be sad after the election local leftist Biden voters. I hear whiskey helps if you just cant get over it.

    Reply
  4. Avatar
    WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot   October 22, 2020 at 5:50 pm

    Don’t give any credibility to a hugely biased Democrat who is trying to reincarnate himself as a voice of political wisdom, he’s not. He’s just a voice of the radical left.

    Reply
  5. Avatar
    Dennis Barton   October 22, 2020 at 4:35 pm

    The numbers Mr. Ausman has pulled together are interesting …but this election isn’t going to turn on numbers. This election will turn on hate or reason. The question is are there enough voters who hate Trump; his New York developer braggadocio manner, his tweets, his hair, you name it, enough to cancel out those who vote for the positives of closed borders to illegal immigration, great progress in mid-east peace efforts, opposition to killing babies on demand, energy independence ($2 versus $5 gasoline) and of course a nice tax cut for the working folks as well as the lowest unemployment rate for minorities since records have been kept. A rational person would say the positive actions of the president they know clearly out weight the unknown capability of a lifetime politician well past his prime in determining the future of our country. However, hate is a powerful emotion and can overcome rational thought and easily so when the facts are kept from the voters which is being done today by major media outlets and social networks. Hopefully, the voters will demonstrate the exercise of rational thought and not the emotion of hate on election day and give the win the candidate best suited to lead all Americans

    Reply

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