In the Arena: Wednesday Early Voting Update

In the Arena: Wednesday Early Voting Update

Over seven million registered voters in Florida have already cast their ballot as of Wednesday morning.  This means statewide 65% of the likely total voter turnout has already been cast.  In Leon County 58% of the projected vote is already in at the Supervisor of Elections’ Office.

Republicans are turning out at a higher rate than Democrats in early voting.  Democratic voters have turned in more absentee ballots than Republicans.  The exact reverse occurred in 2016 and 2018 but the current President has raised issues about absentee voting.  This has lowered Republican vote by mail but increased Republican early voting in person.

Four years ago, when Trump carried Florida, 6.6 million voters cast ballots before the election day.  We are well pass that number with five days to go before election day.

In 2016 just 96,450 more Democratic voters cast ballots than Republican.  As of today, 245,912 more Democrats have voted.  Two days ago, that number was 354,654 more Democratic ballots.  Republicans for two days in a row a net of 50,000 more Republicans have voted on Monday and Tuesday.

Another number to watch is how many more Republicans voted than persons registered with minor parties and non-partisan.  In 2016 Republicans cast 1,089,532 more votes than the NPA voters.  This year, as of today, the number is 1,112,011.  However, 1.4 million independents have already voted.

In Florida there is a high degree of party loyalty to their respective candidates among Republican and Democratic voters.  The defection rates for both parties are very low.  Independents (the NPAs) are splitting in favor of Biden over Trump.  Even conservative pollsters confirm this trend.

With that in mind, among absentee and early voters it is likely, among the 7 million votes cast, that Biden has a net lead of 440,000 votes or 5% of all the ballots cast thus far.  Most Florida polls suggests the percentage Biden is getting among those who already voted is between 58% and 61%.  I disagree.

Pollsters say early voters in Pennsylvania are giving Biden 87%, in Michigan the number is 75% Biden, and in Wisconsin pollsters are saying Biden is getting 73%.

If this 53% Biden number is sustained (it neither grows nor shrinks) and if 70% of the votes are cast before election day the question becomes will Trump’s advantage among election day voters be enough to carry the day for him.

If the two conditions above are met – the Biden lead of 53% and 70% turnout before election day – then Trump would need to get 57% of the on-day election voters to carry Florida.  Newsweek estimates nationwide that Trump will carry 63% among those casting ballots on election day.  That would be enough for Trump to carry Florida unless those Republicans voting early are depleting the pool of election day Trump supporters.

If the pollsters are correct and the estimate of 53% Biden is too low then Trump, even with 63% of those voting in-person on election day, loses.

With so many votes already in an October surprise, if one occurred,  would likely be a dud.  The FBI Director did his October surprise against Hillary Clinton eleven days before the election.  That was plenty of time to swing critical voters in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.  Now the impact of something like that will be minimal as there is only just over five days to go.

Jon M. Ausman is the longest serving member of the Democratic National Committee in Florida’s history (December 1992 to January 2017).  He can be reached at ausman@embarqmail.com or at 850-321-7799.

12 Responses to "In the Arena: Wednesday Early Voting Update"

  1. Avatar
    Johannes de Silentio   October 30, 2020 at 11:42 am

    Let’s talk about voter suppression Tally style, shall we?
    Go here: https://www.leonvotes.gov/Voters/Early-Voting/Early-Voting-Polls
    See that red marker by the NE branch library? See it green everywhere else? I have, for over a week now (though sometimes it’s been yellow).
    Why doesn’t the NE (where most in the county have voted by percentage) have another early voting location or two (heck, maybe even three…)?
    Things that make you go, hmmm.

    Reply
  2. Avatar
    Edward Lyle   October 29, 2020 at 9:13 am

    This election – and the future of our Republic – really boils down to these two simple and unimpeachable facts:

    ~ President Trump and VP Pence love America, and will do everything within their power to fight for and protect Her.

    ~ Corrupt Dementia Joe Biden and AA-posing Slave-Owner Harris despise America, and will do everything within their power to fight against and destroy Her.

    Like the Clinton, Obama, Pelosi, Schumer, et al… crime families… the Dementia Joe Biden Crime Family – in collusion with Big Tech and the Media PACs – has made a fortune by stealing from and selling out our Nation. Our enemies around the world OWN the Biden Family… and there’s no denying it anymore. If we allow the Demunists to steal this election – or worse yet; willingly give these treasonous criminals control of our Nation – then we deserve the destructive results of our ignorance.

    Reply
  3. Avatar
    TONY   October 29, 2020 at 8:04 am

    I just read an article where Sen. Kelly Loeffler, R-GA, was asked if she had any issues with Trump’s comments in the “Access Hollywood” tape from 2005, 15 YEARS ago.

    I guess these Reporters have to dig that far back to find something on Trump that they can twist to fit what they want it to fit. They can do the same with Bidden and Harris and they wont have to twist it at all.

    If Biden wins this Country will NEVER be great again.

    Reply
    • Avatar
      Hope   October 29, 2020 at 9:13 am

      The media refuses to report on the enthusiasm… the vast enthusiasm across America for TRUMP.

      Americans have hope that their country will resume leadership under Trump and only more good things to come. God Bless America!

      Reply
  4. Avatar
    Savoir Faire   October 28, 2020 at 9:26 pm

    WTF is ‘raceist’ or ‘scamey’??

    To quote, “SPEAK ENGLISH!”

    Really, I just came to ask what’s TR’s e-mail address, if you have one.

    Reply
  5. Avatar
    Snidely Whiplash   October 28, 2020 at 7:32 pm

    Democrats are raciest and Blacks have caught on to Democrats scamey ways this time.

    Reply
  6. Avatar
    TONY   October 28, 2020 at 4:02 pm

    If they would start arresting the people who tamper with Ballots and charge them with Treason most of it would stop. Also arrest those who commit Voter Fraud and make sure to post their Photos for all to see.

    Reply
  7. Avatar
    Frank lynch   October 28, 2020 at 2:50 pm

    “There has been a lot of talk…”

    Is that like “People are saying…”?

    Sorry, I’ll take Ausman’s research and facts over “People are saying…”

    Reply
  8. Avatar
    fed up   October 28, 2020 at 1:37 pm

    Why do you give this idiot space?

    Reply
  9. Avatar
    Hope   October 28, 2020 at 1:14 pm

    There has been a lot of talk about Biden voters wanting to change their vote. That is not addressed in this article.

    I believe a lot of the Democratic Party voters are voting for Trump and crossed over. This is not addressed in this article.

    There is word going around and a video that the Democratic Party-Biden campaign is going to take Biden out and replace him with Hillary because Biden is not able to function in a cognitive capacity.
    .
    Mr. Ausman is ignoring the Ukraine, China, Russia connections between the Biden family members.

    Also, ignored in this article is the massive grassroots support car parades, airport events, groups that normally don’t come out for candidates such as the Amish, nuns, priests, etc are enthusiastically supporting Trump. The massive support should not go unnoticed.

    The Democrats and Pelosi playing politics and depriving Americans of the stimulus is not being addressed.

    Also ignored is the Trump nomination to the Supreme Court that was approved. This gives Trump immeasurable support that Mr Ausman has conveniently not addressed.

    There are many more areas of support for Trump that Ausman fails to report.

    And the recent violence by Antifa which is connected to the Democratic party does not help Biden bode well which again is not addressed by Ausman.

    Americans are no longer being fooled by Democratic Party shenanigans.

    Reply
    • Avatar
      Pray   October 28, 2020 at 2:16 pm

      I like it, Hope. Wish you had written the article. It would have been more informed.

      Reply

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