Local government and business leaders gathered on Monday, March 30, at The Moon for NAI TALCOR’s 6th Annual Commercial Real Estate Market Update, offering a mixed assessment of Tallahassee’s economic outlook and urging greater focus on housing development and job growth.
The attendees heard presentations detailing trends across the retail, industrial and office sectors. The overall message: Tallahassee’s commercial economy is stable but showing limited momentum.
Ed Murray, president of NAI TALCOR, described the local economy as neither booming nor declining, but largely flat. He suggested the city should continue leaning into housing development — particularly near universities — to meet demand from students and young professionals seeking walkable neighborhoods.
“There are 40,000 students at FSU, and there are probably 15,000 beds around campus,” Murray said, noting that lifestyle preferences are driving demand for new residential projects.
Office Market Shows Limited Growth
Commercial brokers reported roughly 100,000 square feet of vacant office space among approximately 850,000 square feet of downtown inventory spread across nine buildings. While some tenant movement is occurring, most activity involves companies relocating in search of more favorable terms.
John McNeil, a principal with NAI TALCOR, said a key indicator of sluggish growth is the absence of new construction. “Not a single new office building has been completed since our last market update in 2025,” McNeil said. “Maybe we’re not growing jobs at a rate that’s fast enough.”
Murray agreed, calling the lack of new office development a sign of a flat employment market.
Retail Remains a Bright Spot in Certain Areas
Retail development continues to show the strongest demand, particularly in Midtown and northeast Tallahassee. Restaurant space remains especially attractive to national and regional tenants due to relatively quick turnover and consistent consumer demand.
Interest is also growing near the campuses of Florida State University and Florida A&M University, where food and beverage concepts are expanding along West Tennessee and Gaines streets.
Two shopping centers — Carriage Gate in northeast Tallahassee and Miracle Plaza in Midtown — are fully leased, reflecting sustained retail demand in established commercial corridors. Murray noted that new major shopping centers have been built resulting in many national brands constructing stand-alone locations.
Murray Addresses Challenges, Politics
Despite positive indicators in certain sectors, Murray cautioned that the broader economy remains constrained by slow job growth and uncertainty. “We’ve got all the hardware you need,” he said. “We have great universities, great people, great infrastructure. Our problem is the inability to connect the pieces and make us great.” He described the local economy as “bouncy,” meaning businesses are delaying major decisions while monitoring state and global economic pressures, particularly during an election year.
Ahead of the 2026 election cycle, Murray said elected leaders should avoid what he called “negative chaos,” aka negative self-talk. He added all sides of the political spectrum engage in that, especially during an election year, which can damage long term business interests.
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