During a recent presentation about the local economy at the Capital Tiger Bay Club, Skip Foster, the former publisher of the Tallahassee Democrat, stated that “In October of 2024, according to the OEV’s own data center, there were 163,592 jobs in Leon County. The latest reporting data – it’s down to 158,830.”
Foster concludes that, based on this data, “Almost 5,000 jobs have vanished in 18 months.”
Foster’s conclusion is wrong and here’s why.
The jobs data Foster is referring to comes from the Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS) and measures employment by place of residence, not total jobs created in a specific county.
For measuring jobs created in Leon County, the federal government publishes the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW).
Comparing the two sources of job information shows why Foster’s conclusion related to vanishing jobs is wrong.
In the table below, the QCEW data shows the “Jobs in Leon County” increased 9.8% from 2021 to 2025. The Leon County economy added 14,725 jobs during this period.
However, the data that measures “Leon Residents with Jobs in Leon County” only increased by 10,050 or 6.8% during this period. And as Foster points out, this number decreased in 2025.
The big story in this data is not the vanishing jobs but the vanishing people that still hold the jobs created in Leon County.
Since 2021 over 4,500 people with jobs in Leon County chose to move outside Leon County. And even more relevant is that most of this movement occurred recently, in 2024 and 2025.
Where did the people go? For the answer to that question, let’s turn to population growth.
The table below shows the latest census population numbers available for Leon, Jefferson and Wakulla counties from 2020 to 2025.
Foster argues that census data shows Leon County loss 1,400 residents in 2024. However, the most recent revisions do not support this decline.
The most recent data shows 2.3% population growth in Leon County over 2020-25, much less than the 8.9% for Florida over the same period and even less than the population growth in Wakulla (12.8%) and Jefferson (10.3%) counties.
Now it is becoming clear where the people with jobs in Leon County went – to Wakulla and Jefferson counties. And when they left, they kept their Leon County jobs.
Implications
The above analysis shifts the focus about the local economy from the Leon County job market to a question about why people are choosing to work in Leon County but live elsewhere.
The list of possible answers to this question is long and, in my opinion, includes housing affordability, local taxes, public school quality, crime and, yes, politics. This discussion will be left for another day.
However, regardless of the answer, If this trend continues, the Leon County economy will continue to create more jobs and eventually begin losing out on the benefits of the job growth.
For a great example of what this might look like, look no further than the Leon County School Board: declining enrollment, unused infrastructure, under paid teachers, and increasing property taxes!
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