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Will Residential Real Estate Continue Momentum into 2016?

Posted on February 23, 2016

Will Residential Real Estate Continue Momentum into 2016?

Over the last three years the resale of residential real estate has been a bright spot in our local economy. Double digit increases in transactions during this period has been the norm.

In addition, prices for single-family homes has continued to see modest increases. For example, the average sale price of single-family homes in Leon county increased by approximately 3.3% in 2015, to $217,000.

Will this pace continue in 2016?

The latest information for January shows that 153 single-family homes were sold in January, 2016. Last January, 149 homes were sold. While these numbers are comparable, there are some factors that indicate the pace of resales may slow in 2016.  

For example, the number of homes for sale in January 2016 is down from January 2015 and so are average sale prices.

However, the best indicator for what 2016 holds will come in the spring. Will sales from March through May match the pace set in 2015?

The graph below shows the annualized sales of single-family homes in Leon county over the last 12 months.  The annual pace of resales reached 2,800 transactions in July 2015 and has stayed above that threshold.

For January 2016, the annual pace is 2,850 which is slightly down from last month, but significantly ahead of this time last year.

RESalesFeb16

The graph below shows the annualized average sales price of single-family homes  in Leon county over the last 12 months.

As we reported last month, the single-family resale prices in December had a significant downward impact on the 12-month average sale prices. The graph below shows that resale prices began to slowly decline beginning in August. This trend continues in January, 2016. Average sales prices for single-family homes sold in January were down again.

Based on historic trends, this downward pressure on prices should begin to turn around over the next couple of months.

REPricesFeb16

One Response to Will Residential Real Estate Continue Momentum into 2016?

  1. Franklin Thompson Reply

    March 20, 2016 at 8:27 am

    I’m not sure it’s ‘momentum’. It appears to be more of ‘trip and roll’.

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