NOTE 06/01: No daily updates from 5/29-5/31. Numbers provided 6/1 are averaged to provide daily estimates.
NOTE 01/01: There was no report from FDOH on 01/01.
NOTE 12/26: There was no report from FDOH on 12/25.
NOTE 11/27: There was no report from FDOH on 11/26.
NOTE 10/11: There was no DOH COVID daily report on 10/10. Therefore, the 10/11 daily number for cases and deaths will include two days. The current hospitalization numbers and the seven day average numbers will not be impacted.
NOTE 9/1: DeSantis was informed late Monday that nearly 75,000 results of Quest testing data dating as far back as April would be ingested into the state’s COVID-19 data for Tuesday’s update. Source: Orlando Sentinel.
TR will update the three charts below on a daily basis without commentary. Submit questions in the comments section.
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Positive Cases
The chart below tracks the daily positive cases and provides a 7-day average trend line based on cases reported by the Florida Department of Health (DOH) through June 1st.
Hospitalizations
The chart below tracks the daily hospitalizations and provides a 7-day average trend line based on cases reported by the Florida Department of Health (DOH) through June 1st.
Deaths
The chart below tracks the daily reported deaths and provides a 7-day average trend line based on cases reported by the Florida Department of Health (DOH) through June 1st.
June 1: Tracking Florida COVID-19 Cases, Hospitalizations, and Fatalities added by Staff on
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Been a long time……
Everyone I know has gotten vaccinated, everyone I know has gotten Covid. Luckily, no one had symptoms worse than flu-like for a day or two, and then some odd lingering things like Covid tongue. (It’s a thing. ?)
I still think much misinformation was given out in the beginning and then never corrected. I hear stories from people who “know nurses” in NYC and say they were told by these front-line people all sorts of horrific things. Like so many people were dying they were piling dead bodies on the sidewalks. I guess the refrigerated trucks all ran out of space. And it remains a political divide…the more the person hated Trump, the more horrific the stories are.
What a lesson in how people believe what they want, myself included.
So I came down with covid 2 weeks ago. I am fully vaccinated like everyone wants me to be. Couple things.
1. before I figured out i had it i gave it to people (didn’t matter that i was vaccinated).
2. It was a not great time of the flu for sure.
3. I got the regeneron that they are providing at camping world stadium and I almost immediately felt better. I was without symptoms in hours after that.
4. Every single person i know feels the same way about the regeneron.
5. I am convinced it would have been worse for me if I wasnt vaccinated. Dont know if Im right but the feeling i get.
Again if its all the same why isnt it simply my choice on the vaccination front? Also why is this regeneron product not a national priority.
Maybe because we have people who dont like America and when covid is a manageble flu then we have to get back to the principles of freedom and capitalism that provided the blanket of comfort by which people had the luxury to not like America. Just a wild guess.
The following comment is making more and more sense to me. I read it the other day in the comments section after a covid article.
‘I need to take your vaccine that doesnt work, because your vaccine doesnt work?”
Well, yeah, that’s my concern.
THIS below could have been said in March 2020, August 2020, January 2021, or last week.
“We have a surge. People are hospitalized, people are dying. Most people with Covid have flu-like symptoms or less.”
Me: My daughter has a cold
Doctor: Has she been exposed to Covid
Me: She is vaccinated
Doctor: That Doesnt Matter
So what is the bleeping point then
A recent New York Times article stated “Covid vaccines continue to maintain high protection against severe disease, hospitalization and death.” This quote was from Dr. Sara Oliver, a C.D.C. scientist.
I am having a really hard time buying into the narrative that the vaccine is saving people from severe effects of Covid. Everyone I know that got Covid before vaccines were available had the same severity of effects that vaccinated people are getting now.
I have been vaccinated and will get the booster. I feel, better safe than sorry. But, I don’t know what to believe with this. Too much of it doesn’t make sense.
Tony,
“I still cant understand the vaccine mandate argument – If you can still get covid and spread it if your vaccinated then why isnt it just a personal choice…… If you cant get covid and spread it then also why do you care (and why do i need a mask if im safe)”
I’m glad to read someone else had my thoughts. City of WP is requiring all city employees (500+-) to submit proof of full jab by Sept. 15. If the number is less than 65% jabbed (random ratio with no health organization backup to lean on) city commissioners will hold a “Special Meeting” to decide next move. If you can’t get jabbed on religious or medical grounds, you need proof. Overall, no jab, weekly testing for the non-jabbed. If you get covid, stay home with no pay. If get jabbed, the taxpayers will pay you $150 and give you a day off. Oh, it’s “entirely voluntary”.
Seems like a reasonable counter argument to 800,000 abortions (still more than covid deaths) – baby seats vs ability to afford a bigger car. This is the kind of self-fulfilling political logic that has us all in trouble.
Personal rights matter unless they don’t fit your politics.
Same thing the other way every child life matters but you cant make me wear a mask even if it saves one life because of my freedom.
This pandemic exposed that we are all hypocrites in that we just want what we want and will find some logic and some report of data to back it.
I still cant understand the vaccine mandate argument – If you can still get covid and spread it if your vaccinated then why isnt it just a personal choice – in that if you think your safer then get the vaccine and if someone doesn’t its on them. If you cant get covid and spread it then also why do you care (and why do i need a mask if im safe)
Alexander Coughlin, you combining masks with current virus. The virus does not bother children under 12 years of age. If you can find a study that shows children catch virus, are bedridden and require hospitalization at anywhere near a hazardous rate, please post. England, Ireland, know this. If you are interested, New York magazine had an article with many references. https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2021/07/the-kids-were-safe-from-covid-the-whole-time.html
To prevent abortions, we could regulate and require reversible vasectomies for all males until they are legally married or have legal consent to procreate from the corresponding female. If we are ok regulating what happens to women’s bodies, shouldn’t we be ok with that? It would reduce babies born out of wedlock for those who push the sanctity of marriage and family…
I saw an amusing meme regarding some Southern politicians that continue to restrict abortions. It was something to effect that “those Southern gentlemen who fight against abortion should be made to sign a contract before having sexual relations with a woman guaranteeing that he will not impregnate her.
Statistics about the unborn are interesting. Did you know that fewer children are born due the requirement of a car seat than are saved from it? NPR did a great story with crash test experiments and detailed analysis of real crash injury reports. Many parents choose not to have a third or fourth child because of the economic needs associated with the larger vehicle needed to accommodate the child car seat(s). Not that any of this is remotely related to Covid or the impact of masking to prevent communicable disease for the children that are here.
I would love to see those who want to defund welfare programs, childcare programs, adoption/foster impacts and the associated rise in abortion statistics. Again, a better focus on a society that benefits everyone would reduce the need/desire for abortions. It should also be noted that abortion laws (which can only directly impact females and the fetus that is entirely dependent on the mother and no other human) are written by groups that are predominantly male and voted on by governments that are predominantly male in a country that is majority female.
Alex,
Im certain your view on protecting rights vs what is right extends to the 800,000 unborn children that are “discarded” in the US every year in the name of a women’s personal rights…
yes that stat is right – every year we abort more babies in the US than we have had covid deaths – nothing to see here 🙂
Masks work to prevent airborne disease. This fact has been verified through countless studies and over a hundred years of historical evidence. I don’t know where you guys get your information from but 99 out of a hundred doctors agree that masks work (even for children) to reduce the spread of disease. It is a physical barrier that reduces the energy of the particles thus reducing the spread. That’s basic physics. Citing the 1 out of 100 who has a different opinion is not without some merit but should probably be given 1% of the weight when determining the best course of action for you, your family, and your community.
There are a group of families who have filed a lawsuit against Florida for not allowing the mandates of masks in school under the Americans with Disabilities Act.
One couple has a 10-year-old who is immuno-compromised and too young for a vaccine. The mother said, “If we don’t have enough kids wearing masks, that effectively makes it unsafe for my child to go to school at all,”
There is no way in hell I would send my immuno-compromised child to school just because masks have been mandated, thereby depending on a bunch of 10-year-olds to properly wear a mask. In fact, I wouldn’t trust the masks to protect my child even if it could be guaranteed they were all worn properly. I doubt these parents are going to feel their children are safe even if everyone in school is wearing a mask. But, I guess feeling a bit of control in these trying times is comforting nonetheless.
Alex, everything I read about kids and masks says masking makes no difference. One study suggests it makes it worse. Brown University Professor Emily Oster has a dashboard.
Vaccines, seatbelts/car seats (somehow I survived without either in parent’s cars) but they clearly work. Masks don’ matter with kids. So why force the parents to do something that is not effective?
We are too focused on rights and not focused enough on the responsibility to the society that enables those rights (like the current concern for women’s rights in Afghanistan). Parents are in the driver’s seat but still have to follow the laws that require seatbelts, child safety seats, etc (can’t legally drive drunk either for the welfare of other drivers). The same people that want a physical barrier on the southern border can’t grasp the concept of a physical barrier on their body’s point of entry (intelligent individuals vs particles; which would a barrier work better on…). People who complain about dirty masks seem to miss the concept of changing clothes once they get dirty (hate to see their underwear). You need proof of vaccination to attend public school because vaccines are proven safe and effective (public good outweighs personal interests). And remember that your rights end once they interfere with another person’s rights (just as you don’t have the right to hit someone, you don’t have the right to hit them with your diseases).
On a positive note, the commentary has improved greatly since 2020 and election time. There is no end to the wild claims vehemently strewn about. Covid has killed more people than cancer? Covid is the deadliest virus on the planet …in all of history? Bwwahahahhaaha! Please people! you’re killing me!
All time total Number of “COVID DEATHS” from 2019 to present: (AKA anyone who tests positive for covid regardless of cause of death) 4.3million or around 2.15m per year.
Deaths CAUSED by covid UNKNOWN.
Compare that to REAL reports Number of deaths on the planet in only 1 year 2017: 56million
17.79 million CAUSED by cardiovascular
9.56 million CAUSE cancer
…….. check for yourself.
https://ourworldindata.org/causes-of-death
Idiots. up until 2017- before the covid excuse to do whatever was necessary to make corporate dictatorship official- In Global burden of disease studies, EACH death had ONLY 1 specific cause.
But since there isn’t any virus deadly enough to justify any of the insane mandates on their agenda, it was necessary to artificially pump up the numbers just to have something- ANYTHING AT ALL- to back up all the hype and supply adequate fuel to keep the fear and hate mongers burning. They have changed the criteria for reporting the burden of disease from 1 specific cause of each death to a very broad category LOOSELY defined as COVID-RELATED deaths and carelessly named: COVID DEATHS. This is NOT the number of deaths CAUSED by covid. They have been recording the deaths of everyone who tests positive for the virus as a “COVID DEATH”- without regard to the 1 specific cause of death. In 2020 it was calculated that only 6% of “COVID DEATHS” where actually CAUSED by covid. To date there are only 4.3 million “covid deaths”. A global death rate of 0.05%. But the rate of deaths CAUSED by covid is closer to 0.003%. The idiocy displayed in this commentary is UNBEARABLE. I swear I’m so disgusted by the overwhelming evidence of TSTL (Too Stupid To Live). I’m ready to pick up a banner and lead the campaign for IMMEDIATE global depopulation.
TY, Tara! If you’re jabbed and wearing a mask, why worry about anybody who isn’t jabbed/vaxxed/masked? Is you mask not working? Is your jabbed body vulnerable to virus? Why worry if you’re jabbed and masked? I learned in kindergarten to cover my mouth when I coughed, sneezed. I learned at age 4 to wash my hands after going to the bathroom. In the 58 years since then I don’t think the CDC has come up with any new, startling news regarding personal hygiene.
You know what I don’t get? If people choose not to get vaccinated, then get Covid, well, then, that’s on them. If those who got vaccinated still have to worry about getting it because of all the unvaccinated who are still spreading it, then the vaccine is untrustworthy and what are we even saying at that point?
I am so sick of this incessant Covid talk. Get vaccinated, they are telling us it works. Get a booster when it’s recommended. Don’t get vaccinated, it’s your choice. It’s time to move on and accept that Covid will rear its ugly head just like so many other awful illnesses that aren’t used to literally put the fear of death in everyone, all day, every day.
Many months ago I stopped watching all news shows. My life got so much better.
Will this site ever be updated, or will it remain as a memorial to all the schmucks who “thought” Covid was over? Does the community not deserve to be updated on the latest numbers during thus upward surge with the Delta variant?
Covid is over brother. Much to the dismay of those who don’t like America…
What happened to updates?
Seems a little odd that the peak of ever media data graph is almost literally inauguration day…
Death rate is going down. To put it in perspective, OK, actual data, the 7-day average on May 1 was 60, now on June 1 it’s 52. Problem is, because coding deaths as COVID-19 related is more profitable for Medical providers, particularly for Medicare cases, the FDOH is now going back 6, 9, even 12 months re-coding deaths into the COVID-19 bucket – this definitely inflates the daily number being reported in the news. You can see this on the FAU COVID Dashboard. They do go back and take some out of the COVID bucket, but there are far less of those. The highest amount of deaths in the past two months, based upon actual date of death, was on April 1, and that was 67.
Every day I thank my lucky stars that I live in the Great State of Florida. We are neck and neck with Maine as having the highest percentage of residents > 65 in the entire Country, yet our death rate with (not from) COVID is 26th in the nation. Better than NY, NJ, Conn, Illinois, Michigan, Penn, Nevada, all masked up and locked down for almost 14 months.
Death rate Lags. Has for a year now but somehow seems to blow peoples mind when the data does or doesnt match their political slant
Tara pointed out that new cases and hospitalizations are dropping, so why emphasize the death count? Supposedly, people getting COVID now will have milder cases and FEW will die, so why is the death rate constant (is the death RATE actually going up? No that can’t be true)? Most likely, there is alot more COVID out there than these graphs show. If most new cases are young people, their symptoms may be so mild that they don’t get tested. But of that number, 5% end up in the hospital and 5% of them die (i.e., .25% of the total). So a level death rate when the other numbers are going down shows me that new cases are being under-reported.
Bottom line is: “This Thing Should Be Over, so Get the Vaccine”.
“The Biden administration stopped a State Department investigation launched late last year into whether the coronavirus originated in a Chinese lab”
Looking at the graphs, cases are falling, hospitalizations are falling, deaths are level. Death levels have historically followed the others. I don’t think picking the one of the three that is not falling accurately signifies anything.
William Wallace says when vaccinated people are allowed to take off their masks everyone else will also. I think that explains Florida’s pretty constant death rate at a time that it should be falling dramatically.
You know how lots of people thank a cop or a soldier when they see them in public? When I see a young person without a mask in public I thank them for being smart and helping us all out by getting vaccinated. At least they have to think about what they’re doing for a few seconds.
You lost me at “>3X lower than”. Did you mean to write “less than a third as high of a rate”?
No, that can’t be it, because you then wrote “5.3/100K CAN vs US 15.5/100K”. 3 times the rate 5.3/100K would be 15.9/100K. So if your figures are correct, the rate in Canada is a little more than one-third of the rate in the USA. Doesn’t matter. Different polities, different cultures, different individuals, different habits…lots of factors to weigh, impossible to establish “controls” to turn it into real science.
In any case, the CDCP & Johns Hopkins reports show a very low infection rate & a very low fatality rate (both percentage of population & percentage of those infected).
The last I checked, there were over 100 known probably effective treatments, over a dozen tried & tested effective treatments & preventatives, 3 different vaccines now, & still more on the way. Different treatments are appropriate for different individuals. Get vaxxed, eat your veggies, soak up a few rays, if you have a cytokine storm get to the docs, and remember to breathe enough fresh or UV-blasted or ozonated air for you.
All the rest is hysteria being generated in the cause of power-madness.
With the CDC now saying vaccinated people don’t need masks any more, they are basically saying no one does. Are businesses now going to become the vaccine card gestapo?
This requires re-posting here.
With the long overdue, increasing evidence, finally coming out about the mass murderer Fauci, it’s time for criminal charges be brought against this evil man. Fauci and his NIAID along with the NIH provided grant funding through a middle man company, Eco Health for gain of function research at the Wuhan Lab. Eco Health was also contracted by the WHO to do the investigation into the Wuhan Lab. No conflict of interest there, right? Mass murderer Fauci, the godfather of gain of function research, outsourced this work when the Obama administration ordered a stop to these types of studies in the U.S.
What is “Gain of Function” research? Simply put, it’s genetically altering/experimenting on viruses like corona viruses to assess what gains you can obtain from them. In layman’s terms, bio-weapon research.
Put that in your pipe and smoke it, Branch Covidians! Let it sink in. Yes, the USSA government DID have a hand in enabling the creation of this bio-weapon. Do you still trust the CDC and mass murderer Fauci? The Chicoms just stupidly, accidentally or intentionally released it and decided to take full advantage of it. Mass murderer Fauci has been trying to cover all this up for the past year. Hence his constant flip-flopping and lies about Covid-19.
I find these 3 graphs to be extremely useful, thanks for posting this page and keeping the graphs up to date. But guys – please update the page! It’s been 4 days since the last update, and current data says hospitalizations are continuing to drop…
Gee Ed,
I don’t know what reality you are living in but COVID 19 started under Donald Trump and gas in Orlando Florida is currently $2.70a gallon.
The China Bio-Weapon Flu Scandemic AND $5 a gallon gas…
… gee, thanks Joe!
Got got’em Ronny, while Blue State Governors are mixed up in scandals, killing people in Nursing Homes, and getting recalled, you are using common sense and letting people return to normalcy. Keeping Draconian measures in place is actually causing people not to want to get vaccinated because there is no incentive to do so. He was the first to recognize that 65+ needed to be prioritized and it paid huge dividends. In DC, despite being vaccinated, you can’t even dance at your own wedding. 96% of DC votes Democrat every time, so you deserve that. Buy some popcorn and wait and see all the lawsuits filed by liberal local leaders to wear their two masks longer.
@William_Wallace exactly. These despicable Branch Covidian Capital District Kommissars will try to weasel something for sure or run under the nearest rock with their tails between their legs to lick their wounds. It will also be interesting to see what the filthy child abusing Scruel Superintendent Hanna and the child abusing Scruel Kommissars will do about forced muzzling of the kids.
Welp DeSantis just dropped a nuke on all the local gov’t Covid restrictions. It will be interesting to see how Leon county tries desperately to hold on to their mask mandate.
The China Bio-Weapon Flu Scamdemic numbers have been fudged from the get-go. There was no greater display of the disconnect from reality than a half-empty vaccinated session of Congress, all fart-distancing and wearing face diapers, as they listen to CCP puppet and Dementia patient berate our Republic and share their plans to destroy it.
when it comes to mask mandates, Joe Biden is the Village Idiot.
If anyone wants living proof that Democrats really revel in controlling their constituents, look no further than Mayor Demings and Nancy Pelosi. They have now moved the goalposts once again, or actually created brand new ones, to take off the face diapers. They, and many other Dem leaders are now saying a certain percentage of people have to get the Trump vaccine first. Of course they aren’t considering all the people who have already built up immunity the old fashioned way. At last count 2.2M cases in Florida alone that we know about via testing – that’s ~ 10+% of the population. We know millions more weren’t sick enough to bother getting tested but now have antibodies and/or “T” cells. Yes, scientific studies have shown that natural immunity lasts as long as immunity via vaccine.
Of course now Governor Murphy of NJ is saying you can’t vote without a mask on. Where is Stacy Abrams when we need her? This definitely sounds like voter suppression to me but silly me, we know that only cuts one way.
“Give me Liberty or give me death”
If only aborted babies had that “choice”
The abortion analogy is interesting paradox to the covid debate:
Liberals – your free to kill roughly 800,000 babies a year (yes that number is accurate) – meanwhile 1 death is to many and we are sitting at far fewer covid deaths 500 k plus (that’s 7 any 7 months of abortions you want to pick out of last 10 years)
Conservatives – my freedom prevails and if some people have to die then so be it – meanwhile there have been some tragic scenes in hospitals across US that could have been mitigated with a little more care and simple common sense.
Steve and staff at TR. Thanks for continuing to post this info. I appreciate all you do. Also, time for a fresh page 😉
The current covid logic behind the CDC and the White House is so confusing. The vaccines are wonderful and are available to all adults now. However, after somebody is vaccinated they must continue to live like they are not and mask up, avoid crowds and indoor settings to protect those people who choose not to get vaccinated. I guess we should follow Biden’s example and mask up for those super-spreader Zoom calls.
Wrong, sir… our rights are individually possessed, God-Given, and inalienable. Our Constitution was crafted and codified as a legal means to protect our rights from Government infringement and intrusion. Neither you, nor any government, nor Dr. Frauchi and his white robe wackos has any power or standing to infringe upon my God-Given rights.
As for my rights causing impact to others… tell that to the baby that screams in agony as a Planned Parenthood intern severs her spinal cord and ends her life… then has the audacity to call it “healthcare”.
Sell your snake oil elsewhere
No, sir. That is merely a statement of belief. Your belief that you are welcome to it.
An individuals rights (whether granted by God or not) are ensured by the government/society. Any claim of individual right must respect and support that government/society or it will not be able to defend your rights in the future. This is why we should show we care about each other and wear facial coverings (just like how we shouldn’t have to see you naked).
Your rights end where the next person’s begin. Please consult US Supreme Court precedent for details.
Your individual paranoia and beliefs do not take precedence over the rights of others.
THIS… is logic
Your individual rights end once they interfere with the rights of other individuals. Not wearing a mask can increase the likelihood of disease spread and interfere with the rights of other individuals. Thus, you do not have a right to not wear a mask when instructed to do so around others.
This is logic. If both premises are true and the structure valid, you must accept the conclusion.
“My Body; My Choice”… it’s not just for killing innocent babies.
https://tallahasseereports.com/2021/04/21/two-charts-show-positive-trends-for-florida-in-coronavirus-battle/#comment-251004
“excuses by Emperor Cuomo as to why so many died in Nursing Homes in his State.”
“person who tests positive with any kind of test may or may not have an active infection with live virus, and may or may not be infectious”.
Yep. Normally, nursing facilities are infected by visitors and employees. After prohibiting visitors, the better nursing homes setup temporary housing for employees.
Recovering patients test positive for antibodies, though aren’t infectious. It’s unlikely that recovering patients infected nursing homes.
BTW, Florida’s “pneumonia” deaths were about ten times Florida’s usual true pneumonia deaths, and multiples higher than Florida’s official covid deaths.
In the past, many of our brave men and women went to war to protect our citizens. Many died. Is it really that hard to get a vaccine that has little to no chance of killing you?
lunzy makes a good point. We would still need to get vaccinated, but the government may stop encouraging it. If the CCP really did cook up this virus in order to break the Western economies, then who’s side are you on if you choose to prolong and intensify its effect?
The current vaccines have already proven themselves (jury still out on J&J??), so this isn’t the time to worry about the future need for boosters or future changes in political policy. Exercise your personal freedom and do what you know is right at this time. “Get the shot, while you still can!”.
Dr. Mark, I like your choice of words, every time a new virus is “hatched”. So pretty much we’re agreeing that the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is still not happy about the lucrative trade arrangement they had being torn to shreds by the previous administration and will therefore continue to cook up new bioweapons to unleash on the US and the rest of the World. Of course if the new administration, who is very chummy with the CCP, reverses course and starts giving away the farm again, do you still think we’ll need to get all of our shots?
The demand for personal freedom over societal responsibility is the same freedom that allows the virus to thrive, mutate, and make things worse. There is a cost to all freedom.
With these great vaccines available, mutation of the coronavirus is the only thing that can screw things up. Every time a new virus is “hatched” there’s a small chance of a bad mutatuion happening. So if 10 million people each have 10 billion corona viruses in them and that makes a 70% chance of a bad mutation (among the 100 trillion repications) then our odds of a new pandemic breaking out are higher than 50-50. But, that chance drops to 0.07% if only 100,000 people have 1 billion viruses (milder disease) in them.
Sad to say, 98% of Americans eyes just glazed over because schools haven’t taught math and science in 40 years. So, the interpretation is “with full vaccination we might have a breakout pandemic every 100 years, but with only 50% vaccination it could be more like 1 year”. Choose Wisely!
The media. What can you say?
Today, Anderson Cooper was on CNN and educating on Covid.
***********************
BREAKING NEWS
Even the mild cases of Covid need to be stopped.
If you had Covid before and survived it, you have a 60% higher chance of dying from it if you get it again, than people who have never had it before.
If you’ve had it before and think you are OK, you could experience adverse effects …heart failure, kidney failure, and more……
And some people who’ve had it are experiencing brain fog and other body symptoms that have not gone away.
Even with vaccines, we cannot stop taking precautions.
****************************
If that is really our situation, then I am just glad that at my age, I’ll be checking out soon.
I compare and contrast media coverage to get to try to get to some ‘truth’ if possible. I also read the reports directly when available. Our lack of pandemic preparedness, lack of planning/implementation, and lack of national participation is shameful. Regardless of how you feel about Covid, I would hope that our failings would drive us to try to address these issues before the next one hits.
Steve Good Point – perhaps this board should just be resigned to:
“Desantis is a jerk – killing all”
“Biden will kill our stock portfolio”
Really no reason to try and talk about how 2 sides can come to a meaningful compromise.
Instead lets continue the fear mongering and hate language that has made us all sheep to the whatever media outlet feeds your tiny little mind.
Super Productive!
So, what does everyone think about DeSantis getting the Covid-19 vaccine in private and not publicly doing so to raise awareness and encourage participation?
He thinks it works well enough to protect himself…
Why has it become a Republican thing to refuse the vaccine and Democrat to take it? Wasn’t it Pres Trump who took unprecedented measures to make these available in record time? I say, “Take one for the Gipper!” and let’s get this awful pain completely behind us. Republicans should be all over this solution that could only come from our competitive Capitalist system and was spurred by their leadership. Dems will be glad to take the credit in your absence/silence 🙁
Tony and Alex, get a room…
I think you make alot of valid points. I’m not sure we are that far off from what we think. My issue is the randomness of the restrictions and how correlated they seem to be with one’s politics. Child labor laws make sense and we’re federally made and have stood the test of time regardless of the administration. We have local states making random rules that quite frankly do not seem to be based on science but centered on political appeal. This causes a visceral reaction from those that don’t agree to rebel to what feels arbitrary. There doesn’t seem to be a strong correlation of restrictions to better data in terms of restrictive states. If I am a business owner suffering in that state I think im entitled to ask why? As a business owner no one wants arbitrary restrictions and a hand out. That is never going to be the American way. I’m not for no restrictions but for us all asking hey what is working and how can we get back to work sensibly.
Lastly I don’t understand how we pay for this new found socialist better society. It is irresponsible to not run the math of our current federal spending. I’m not saying we don’t look at things but as a nation we have all stopped even considering how we pay. The programs you speak of in the depression we’re ultimately paid for by a bloody war that killed more in a week than covid. To me that is scary.
Freedom is in the eye of the beholder. Freedom of choice means not only being able to make the choice but often being forced to make the choice and absorb the stress associated with it. Freedom from choice seems wrong from how we were raised but we live in a world where more choices are made for us than we realize or are willing to admit. Some by governments and some by businesses; both because it benefits them and not so much us.
Regarding socialism as a response to pandemic, well we incorporated socialistic policies to get us through the Great Depression and we are a better country for it. The social safety nets have granted relief to many over the last century.
If we were more socialistic, there would have been programs in place to assist the business owners get through this and return us to where we were before (just like insurance but on a national scale). Our current situation, left totally to capitalism would have destroyed smaller businesses in favor of the mega corporations that can more easily endure. This leads to monopolies, ends competition, and moves us away from capitalism. A socialistic system to support the people and a free market to promote growth through competition is best. Hence why we need to be more socialistic.
And the country has changed much since its founding, we have been steadily moving away from pure capitalism as science and industry improved. The size and scale of what we can achieve has increased but we have also seen the horrors that this can bring without regulation and respect for the workers/consumers/neighbors that become impacted. This is why we have child labor laws, labor unions, EPA, OSHA, etc. Unbridled capitalism is merely greed which I would hope no one is arguing for. It is only when tempered with wisdom that greed can be of societal benefit. That tempering is through rules and regulations which necessarily lead to some form of socialism as the societal good must override individual greed.
My comment simply is to say if I were a retail business owner who watched my lifes work arbitrarily go up in smoke – the suggestion that this last year was at best a “dry run” for a pandemic response would be infuriating.
If you believe that America was founded on the bedrock of capitalism and individual freedom then it is natural that you would want be as safe as possible without mortgaging freedom to run a business. There would be tradeoffs that would have consequences
If you believe we are supposed to behave all of sudden like a socialized country then of course you want a world of maximizing governmental control with equality of outcome regardless of effort. There would be less tradeoffs but still all actions would have consequences
For me its hard to look at the opportunity that America has represented for 200 years in lieu of socialism and then all of sudden say we need socialism because of a pandemic
I believe we should never give in to capitalism and freedom of individuals. I’m not in the least bit right its just what I believe that’s all – its the sum total of my life experiences. I also believe you are free to believe and fight for a socialized system as I am sure it is the sum total of your life experiences. The American way is to differ in opinion but come together and find the best compromise. A world where there is no restrictions in a world pandemic is ridiculous. A world where there is no common sense to the restrictions is equally ridiculous.
Seems to me Florida Govt. did about the best job of maximizing the principles of safety and freedom as possible. You can quote whatever biased CNN article you want and I’m sure I could counter with some equally biased Fox News article but the reality is markets are efficient and people are flooding into our state and that is the true test of how people ultimately judge the response.
The 3473 people presently in FL hospitals with COVID say ‘Hi’.
Those who have died from COVID are not able to say anything.
Tony
Clarification request:
They say hi because they are also upset that the public did not get behind the pandemic response and thus the economic situation is really the nonparticipants’ fault?
They say hi because our economic system was so dependent on individualism that we were unable to support them unlike the socialized democracies of the world?
Disantis AKA minni trump is a freaking idiot!!
Alex – thousands of business owners in financial ruin say “Hi”
If you did not believe that Covid-19 was a real threat but recognize that the concept of a deadly pandemic is a real thing, then this past year was basically a practice run; a fire drill, if you will. How did you do with respect toward saving yourself and your community? Are you proud of your actions?
If you are saying now that you would have acted differently if this was “real”, then why didn’t you then when you could have proved it?
How much faster would we be getting back to normal if we all participated like we are supposed to?
Jon, I think I can go with that line of thinking. It’s kinda like all these people didn’t die FROM COVID-19, they died with it. For sure noone dies directly from being obese, it’s all the other complications it causes, including hypertension and Type II diabetes, which are the most common comorbidities with COVID-19 hospitalizations and deaths. But for sure this is a better explanation why Japan and South Korea are doing so much better, certainly not because of mask-wearing and lockdowns.
In the monologue Maher was really hitting on all the misconceptions and panic porn that has come with COVID-19, and noone is being held accountable. “The vast majority of Democrats incorrectly overestimate the probability of being hospitalized from COVID, with 41 percent believing it’s at least 50 percent while only 10 percent of Democrats correctly said that the probability is only 1-to-5 percent.
Your facts matter you mean, not mine? That study doesnt link obesity to the deaths, it just says more deaths in fatter countries. Again, when you actually look at the people who died, obesity isnt the problem, age is. Which is why old people make up 80% of deaths. Even if youre obese, you have a 99%+ chance of survival.
Just go to any retirement home. Very few obese people. They don’t make it to the retirement home.
Facts Matter,
LONDON (Reuters) – The majority of global COVID-19 deaths have been in countries where many people are obese, with coronavirus fatality rates 10 times higher in nations where at least 50% of adults are overweight, a global study found on Thursday.
The report, which described a “dramatic” correlation between countries’ COVID-19 death and obesity rates, found that 90% or 2.2 million of the 2.5 million deaths from the pandemic disease so far were in countries with high levels of obesity.
The study analysed the COVID-19 death figures from Johns Hopkins University in the United States and the World Health Organization’s Global Health Observatory data on obesity.
Strikingly, the authors said, there is no example of a country where people are generally not overweight or obese having high COVID-19 death rates.
“Look at countries like Japan and South Korea, where they have very low levels of COVID-19 deaths as well as very low levels of adult obesity,” said Tim Lobstein, an expert advisor to the World Obesity Federation and visiting professor at Australia’s Sydney University who co-led the report.
“They have prioritised public health across a range of measures, including population weight, and it has paid off in the pandemic.”
By contrast, the report found that in the United States and Britain, for example, both COVID-19 death rates and obesity levels were among the highest.
The United Kingdom has the world’s third-highest coronavirus death rate and the fourth-highest obesity rate – 184 COVID-19 deaths per 100,000 and 63.7% of adults overweight, according to WHO data – followed by the United States, with 152.49 COVID-19 deaths per 100,000 and 67.9% of adults overweight.
TAL. He’s wrong though. In the latest report on over 500000 deaths obesity is only mentioned in 20,000 of them. Certainly it increases your risk, but it’s not the main focus here.
Really good monologue by Bill Maher on COVID and the job being done by DeSantis vs Cuomo and other blue state Governors. Not a huge fan of Maher by any means, but at least he’s spewing facts.
“I think a lot of people died because of Trump’s incompetence and I think a lot of people died because talking about obesity became a third rail in America… it is the key piece of the puzzle, by far the most pertinent factor, but you dare not speak its name.
“Imagine how many lives could have been saved if there had been a national campaign ala Michelle Obama’s ‘Let’s Move’ program with the urgency of the pandemic behind it,” Maher continued. “If the media and the doctors made the point to keep saying, ‘But there’s something you can do,’ but we’ll never know because they never did because the last thing you want to do is say something insensitive. We would literally rather die. Instead, we were told to lock down. Unfortunately, the killer was already inside the house. And her name is Little Debbie.”
FIGHT.. FIGHT..FIGHT. That’s all anyone in this country is doing now. Be silent, listen, and Don’t believe ANYthing except your own intuition!
Yep, that whole box of masks and lockdowns are really paying dividends in Michigan and other Blue States. Also great job by Fauci and the CDC striking fear in everyone about getting the vaccine. First there was no benefit, no relaxation of restrictions by getting it, now you’re discouraging people from wanting to get it after 6 bloodclots, and zero deaths from 6.8M doses administered. Great job.
Real news reporting would have included the awesome job Publix has been doing for years now in providing flu vaccines (yep, they are experienced in giving vaccines!) as well as that there was/is a CVS in Belle Glades that offers the vaccine so no need to drive 20 minutes to the closest Publix.
They would have gotten into the real reasons some segments of society are not getting vaccinated to same degree as others so we better understand and can help. Why didn’t they report that 83% of English speaking Asian-Americans support getting vaccinated (state they will or will probably get vaccine) and African Americans are much less inclined (42%). Could that play into why their actual vaccination rates are lagging? BTW, white and Latin are in between those groups.
The fact that mainstream is allowed to so blatantly mislead, and IMHO their peeps meekly allow themselves to be spoon fed their narrative, is so disturbing. The lack of honest news reporting is the single biggest existential threat to this country. Look at the fact that they are not questioning the POTUS on his misleading Jim Crow statements relative to Georgia.
People of all positions and points of view should not allow the news to mislead or misreport to support a certain narrative… its the death of being the single check on bad politicians…
Dave Kerner the democratic Mayor of Palm Beach County said the 60 Minutes story was ‘intentionally false’ and debunked their whole narrative. If Gov DeSantis helped get vaccine in the biggest grocery chain in Florida I don’t see that as a bad strategy to speed up the vaccination efforts.
How false is the 60 Minutes story on Ron DeSantis and Publix? False enough that the Democratic mayor of Palm Beach County, Dave Kerner, has released a statement noting that it is not just based on “bad information” but is “intentionally false.” Mayor Kerner says that he offered to talk to 60 Minutes himself, but that CBS declined. He says Palm Beach County asked for the Publix relationship, and that CBS knew that but “left it out because it kneecaps their narrative.” He says that the media is “hellbent on dividing us.”
Media is obsessed with trying bring down DeSantis a notch. He is surging and putting his Blue State peers to shame despite Florida’s heavy 65+ population.
So once-respected media outlets like 60 Minutes have now been enabled to tell so many half-truths that they are in reality, and knowingly, lying.
They pick a wealthy area that received Covid vaccines in mid-January and pick a poor area that did not receive vaccines until later, and then create a narrative that says DeSantis favored the wealthy. They did not mention that many poor areas received the vaccine in mid-January and many wealthy areas did not. Half truth.
They insinuate that Publix donated to the DeSantis campaign in return for vaccine distribution rights. All major corporations donate to one campaign or another. Another half truth.
At some point, half truths can be presented in such a misleading way that they really are lies. That’s what 60 Minutes did.
I loved Publix’s response to that shameful 60 Minutes piece:
A spokesperson for Publix Super Markets provided the following statement to 60 Minutes:
“The irresponsible suggestion that there was a connection between campaign contributions made to Governor DeSantis and our willingness to join other pharmacies in support of the state’s vaccine distribution efforts is absolutely false and offensive. We are proud of our pharmacy associates for administering more than 1.5 million doses of vaccine to date and for joining other retailers in Alabama, Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, Tennessee and Virginia to do our part to help our communities emerge from the pandemic.”
Im already been back to normal. Just waitin for yall to catch up.
Debi,
It seems Faucci is after more than just the science. He considers nothing but the darkest alternative with little regard to the tradeoffs that I think we can all agree need to take place to run a country the size of America and built on the principles of freedom and capitalism. Hes on every talk show possible. Hes throwing out first pitches in Baseball games. These do seem like the characteristics of a narcissist. All the talk about trumps personal finances – I would truly like to know what things Faucci is invested in as my suspicion is his motives are not completely altruistic. Like all things – there is some good in what he is trying to say but just blanket skepticism when there is tons of data that shows how to minimize the impacts of covid without destroying lives of others who built legitimate businesses.
I love your point about listening if the name calling is dropped. I don’t like the notion that in the end he is wrong. We all have beliefs that are the sum total of our life experiences. Yours are no more wrong or right than mine but if we all listen and try to actually understand the other perspective we will do better.
I believe you’re wrong, but I would be willing to your points and consider them if they involved more than name calling.
So… I’m right, but you just didn’t like the name calling. I can live with that.
It’s hard to take comments seriously when they’re nothing but name calling.
Nah… not trolling… just truthing… 🙂
Wow dude, really? Trolling or just ridiculousness?
I wouldn’t let Dr. Fraudci prescribe me an aspirin. He’s a narcissistic NaziCrat clown who did everything he could to undermine President Trump’s efforts. That was his charge, and he received his payoff from Dementia Joe. His loyalty to a warped ideology is responsible for thousands and thousands and thousands of deaths here in America.
Other countries were simply collateral damage. The United States, our President, the America First Agenda, and our economy were always the primary target of the China Bio-Weapon Flu Scamdemic.
Fraudci, the CDC, the NaziCrats, the Media PACs, and the Big Tech puppets of the CCP all have lakes of blood on their hands. As I’ve always said… bombs and bullets are not the only way to take down a nation. Drugs and disease take a little longer, but are just as effective at achieving the goal. It’s exactly why Dementia Joe and his Seditious Sadministration are flooding our nation with more drugs and disease as we speak.
Be smart, be safe, stay vigilant, and watch your six… we’re in for a rough haul folks.
Blind faith in a particular scientist (or group of scientists), means ignoring falsifiability. Whatever they say today is 100% correct, regardless what they said yesterday or may say tomorrow. It also means silencing dissenting scientists as deniers.
An acceptance of Science means an acceptance of falsifiability (new information can make old information false). The classic example is the swan. Scientists claimed that all swans were white until the discovery of black swans. The scientific definition was updated to reflect the new data. Science does not tell us the way things are but rather the way we think things are based on the most up to date information.
Those who complain when scientists update the Covid-19 guidelines don’t understand science. They are merely complaining from a place of ignorance. If it were up to these people, medical science would have languished in the era of bleedings and fear of miasma.
CDC has no credibility, unless you’re a Democrat of course. Remember, the CDC big cheese, Robert Redfield, said masks may offer more protection than a vaccine. What a tool. Out of more than 8,000 federal contributions from over 550 CDC employees since 2015, only five went to Republican PACs or candidates, the vast majority of donations went to ActBlue, over $285,000 total to Democratic candidates.
I guess Covid is now only allowed to travel 3 feet in schools as opposed to the normal 6 feet everywhere else. The CDC should quit while it still has a glimmer of creditability.
So looks like John Kerry is the next in a long line of Democrat hypocrites, this time getting photographed on a Commercial flight reading a book without his mask on. “Do as I say….”. He has to fly commercial now because it’s not a good look having your Climate Czar running around in a Private jet with a huge carbon footprint. But when the mainstream media checks in, you must read from the playbook and say how masks save lives and this was just a brief lapse in judgement. He knows how ridiculous wearing a mask really is, but he can’t go against the Party narrative, not as long as their is one false-positive test where the person doesn’t even know they have the virus, let alone can actually spread it. Sad. Hey John, it’s not Science spraying an aerosol mist at a mannequin with and without a mask on.
Tallahassee people must fly a lot.
In other news TMH is reporting they have zero Covid patients.
Bozos, airliner is the safest place you can be other than isolation cell. Anyway, she’s vaccinated now. Still attached to Trumpnipple.
@William_Wallace
Touche.
Aaron Wood. This is Covid. Logic left the universe about a year ago.
@ N111Z
You claim “DeSantis’ vaccination plan continues to be a giant CF.” and then proceed to post an article about a FEDERAL FEMA site that screwed up and DIDN’T follow Desantis plan and all the problems that it caused. I really hope you are able to see the flaw to your logic (or lack thereof)
I don’t know man Doctor Who is pretty awesome. Time Lord. Although Fauci does convey that he has the knowledge of a common Time Lord so…
Dr. Anthony Fauci is the second greatest doctor in America only just behind Dr. Jill Biden.
This is why: “according to the Dr. Fauci”
In a few weeks it will be open season for vaccines according to the Dr. Fauci. Why anyone would be willing to fly hours in an airplane crowded with strangers to Connecticut to be vaccinated is beyond me.
And I know one diabetic under 65 who signed up with his county has got vaccinated a month ago.
I also know several 65+ who made the trip up to the panhandle weeks ago rather than wait for their county. I thought that was excessive, and chose to wait for my county to open a bit more. I didn’t have to wait long. Now that we are into March, it is actually pretty easy to get an appointment. 65+ or those at risk. I cannot imagine why anyone would fly to Connecticut. It sounds like you had the wrong people instructing you on how to get an appointment.
EVERYONE I know in Florida that’s 65+ has gotten vaccinated. EVERYONE.
Real world.
Keep up the good work and the right Vaccine strategy Governor DeSantis. Putting Tri-State Governors to shame.
New Jersey – 2656 deaths/million
New York – 2500 deaths/million
Connecticut – 2167 deaths/million
Florida – 1479 deaths/million. Below the US average of 1627 deaths/million. Despite being neck and neck with Maine as the State with the highest % of 65+ population
OK well today she got her shot there and couldn’t get one here. Real world vs. stats.
CT has less the 4 million residents. They’ve vaxed 400K. FL has 22,000,000 residents and the vax total is 2 million. Seems like we’re doing OK and CT needs some help.
Percent of population with both doses as of 3/7:
FL: 9.2%
CT: 9.1%
US: 9.2%
https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2021/01/28/960901166/how-is-the-covid-19-vaccination-campaign-going-in-your-state
DeSantis’ vaccination plan continues to be a giant CF.
https://www.tampabay.com/news/health/2021/03/07/confusion-then-anger-at-florida-city-vaccine-site-after-rumor-spreads-its-open-to-all/
Only 1 in 10 Floridians have been vaccinated so far. This morning my wife, who has significant health issues and is 7 months shy of 65, is flying to Connecticut where anyone over age 18 is eligible including nonresidents.
Asymptomatic transmission of covid-19? The whole justification for why perfectly healthy people have to wear masks. Not so much….actual scientific evidence, not theory and conjecture, or excuses by Emperor Cuomo as to why so many died in Nursing Homes in his State.
This article pretty much confirms what a lot of us already knew:
https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4851
“As things stand, a person who tests positive with any kind of test may or may not have an active infection with live virus, and may or may not be infectious”. Dead virus, meaning virus that doesn’t get the host sick, or can get another person sick, is still being reported as a positive case and the only statistic that CNN and MSNBC seem to care about,
“The absence of strong evidence that asymptomatic people are a driver of transmission is another good reason for pausing the roll out of mass testing in schools, universities, and communities”
You will not hear any of this from Fauci, Redfield, or Biden, because if they said it, they would be admitting that perfectly healthy people have been punked for a year.
Well, what has happened in American now — the ol’ glass of water 50% filled:
Optimist – that glass is half full
Pessimist – that glass is half empty
Liberal – that glass is racist
Our American society values individualism over the collective good. This makes unlikely the idea that individuals would exercise good judgement regarding the benefit to society of their personal actions. Mask wearing is about societal responsibility not personal responsibility.
Regarding the disproportionate vaccine distribution relative to the racial make up of our society, I am curious to know how racial makeup of the targeted groups relative to the whole. It’s all well and good to note disparities but if they are the result of different racial proportions then that needs to be factored in to discussion of hesitancy or unequal vaccine distribution. For example, non-Whites have a shorter life expectancy and so may not live long enough for senior population to be representative of the population as a whole in addition to the fact that when they were born the racial makeup of society was different.
Dominos are starting to fall one-by-one. Mark this down, DeSantis will soon take this a step further and restrict Florida Counties from imposing face diaper mandates.
“Governor Greg Abbott today issued an Executive Order (GA-34) lifting the mask mandate in Texas and increasing capacity of all businesses and facilities in the state to 100 percent”
“With this executive order, we are ensuring that all businesses and families in Texas have the freedom to determine their own destiny.”
What a novel concept, people responsible for their own well being.
“The data suggests that the flu cases are being lumped in to the rest of the cases skewing the numbers. The data also suggests that a lot of other causes of death are being lumped into covid as well. Its really hard to argue that when you look at historical causes of death and compare to 2020.”…..
So because the flu numbers are lower that means they are being reported as covid? I don’t believe that it’s hard to argue the exact opposite because all you need to do is test and you know if it’s covid or flu or whatever. It doesn’t matter what I want to believe, you just need to test to know. What you can’t do is argue that people are not dying from something because the numbers are higher than the prior year. If X number of people died last year (from anything) and X plus number of people died this year (from anything) you can’t conclude that all those people died from the same things as the prior year. They could have died from different things then in the prior year.
Orlando – Might be the greatest place on earth to live right now.
The data suggests that the flu cases are being lumped in to the rest of the cases skewing the numbers. The data also suggests that a lot of other causes of death are being lumped into covid as well. Its really hard to argue that when you look at historical causes of death and compare to 2020.
Covid and the response have changed the way the US thinks about rights and money. For some that is a good thing because they weren’t happy, and certainly those that believe government should be bigger – as no other entity as enjoyed more of a shift of power (hard to argue that). For these people (also the same people responsible for reporting the numbers) its a good thing for the death toll to be more dramatic.
Its natural for the people that liked things the way they were to be upset. The irregularities in reporting and data are glaring. So they point them out. That comes off like they don’t believe covid is deadly.
In the end covid IS deadly. In the end by the time we figured it out – it was too late for mass lock downs to work. The response to this disease has been almost 100 % politically motivated and thus creating a bitter divide.
For now im happy to live in my “oasis of freedom”. Ill wear a mask if it makes people feel comfortable. Ill stand 6 feet away if that’s your thing but I wont give in on the numbers and they suggest something bigger is in play for sure.
I’m not sure what your conclusion is here…that flu cases are being called Covid cases? That flu cases are not being recorded? Let’s consider the face that some people have immunity to the flu because the flu has been around for…ever? lol You know what I mean. So, the flu viruses change slowly and some people will not have immunity to the new variant, so they are more likely to get infected, but some people will still have some immunity. So, 1st not everyone gets exposed during the flu season, 2nd some people have immunity, 3rd there is a vaccine. I myself have only had the flu once in the past 20 years because I’ve been getting vaccinated. You may remember that the southern hemispheres flu season was almost non-existent as well. Also, how many people already had covid around the beginning of the flu season? Covid had the higher numbers out of the gate. I think the more likely scenario is that the flu was not able to spread as easily as it usually can because some people still work at home, some kids are attending in class school, we wear masks at the store, and people aren’t breathing on each in line like they typically do. Yes, Covid spreads more easily than the flu.
It is sort of unbelievable that the common flu has been all but eradicated this season because of masks and distancing but nearly one third of the county has contracted COVID in the past year. So are we to conclude that COVID is 1000% more transmissible that the flu?
Tony H. I get it. The people I see in Orlando (99%+) are wearing masks where they’re required/asked to wear them. I think it’s stupid, but I do it, too. Numerous times people have jumped out of my way to avoid me on an outdoor sidewalk even when I’m clearly 6′ away. I don’t ask them “why the fear”? I’ve washed my hands since kindergarten so that isn’t a new normal for me. In my experience, the people who are always predicting another surge, or describing a voluntary outdoor event as a “super spreader” are problems. But I don’t bother with them. The best policy I’ve read is https://imprimis.hillsdale.edu/sensible-compassionate-anti-covid-strategy/ Gov. DaSantis seems to be pretty close to this outline.
So now we’re hearing that the Common Flu has virtually disappeared this year. Of course the “experts” point out it’s due to the mitigation measures used to contain COVID-19, such as physical distancing and mask wearing, and schools and office closures. Yet these “experts” say all of this happened while COVID-19 kept surging – until now of course due to Operation Warp speed and approaching herd immunity.
Do these people really listen to themselves before they publish their opinions? Are even the most sheltered people buying that wearing masks helped with the Flu, but had no meaningful impact on COVID-19? This is so ridiculous on its face it’s not worth the virtual paper it’s printed on. Maybe a better explanation is that it’s ALL COVID-19 now, because that diagnosis is much more profitable for the healthcare providers.
I’m not arguing those stats. TBF my tendency is also in that the lockdowns were more harm than good. I just want to find harmony – not hammer people with statistics. Desantis plan has turned out to work well. To some degree its much easier to argue this point now that you have data. Its hard to argue unbiased that he didn’t take risks. When the dealer pulls the hit card and its a 5 then your a genius to hit on 16 but until you know that card then its just a calculated risk. In real time – if you were someone who truly valued safety then it seemed too risky.
Im just really saying i’d love to see us all seek to understand the other side point of view and try to have a meaningful discussion where we give in when our “side” is obviously made a mistake or is being overly judgmental.
The facts are the facts is a tricky statement when for the most part the are being openly skewed by political motivation based on the source – by both sides.
Even when your facts are right – the strategy of hammering on people with them is not ideal. One of my favorite scenes in the movie Lincoln is when he talks about a compass will tell you true north for sure but it says nothing about the hazards and obstacles in the way. So to just hammer away at true north without navigating and compromising your position will never actually get you there.
There is a semantical difference in spouting an opinion and seeking to understand why someone who lived an entirely different life than you has a different one.
Tony H.
I think we’re all aware of other people’s POV and opinions, but facts are facts and stats are stats. Any reasonable person who googles “FL and CA use different tactics but get similar results in covid fight ” will see conservative, liberal, middle of the road media report the same thing: despite clearly different approaches, results are the same. Heck, the Libertarians at Reason magazine a week ago had a comparative USA to UK. Bottom line: “Despite the stark difference in policy, both countries saw remarkably similar COVID-19 trends this winter. According to Worldometer’s numbers, the seven-day average of new cases peaked in the U.K. on January 9; it peaked in the U.S. two days later. That number then fell sharply in both countries.” Based on the numerous reports, none of which have been refuted, the DeSantis approach is the best. NYC shuttered indoor dining when the transmission rate was less than 2% at these places. The bottom line: A lot of people elect really stupid people. Can you imagine the Democrat opponent of DeSantis running this? Argh!
So what’s the middle ground. How long do we go with conservatives berating liberals about masks and shut downs and liberals chastising conservatives about safety. There has to be a world where we start to see that the other side is just as obnoxious as unrelenting as our side. Why can’t we seek to understand.
Like William Wallace – try for 2 days to post where you think desantis and or trump may have been a little to aggressive and carefree. That there was some ways of communication and planning that maybe just maybe could have helped people a little more.
And Debi – try for 2 days to post where you can see that in a lot of cases the restrictions don’t seem to be correlated to actual results and maybe just maybe are having some negative impacts that can be avoided.
One by one if we realize that our political world view is just as valid as the next persons and a result of the sum total of each of our individual experiences – then we can start to communicate instead of just unloading how the other side sucks.
The whole purpose of the shutdowns and restrictions was to slow the spread and not overrun the hospitals. By every meaningful measure both of these goals have been met, oh and we now have two vaccines and a third (J & J) coming in a few weeks. The case for not returning to normal is getting weaker by the day. If the fear mongers want to wear two masks and stay in the basement they are free to do so.
So tired of hearing the US makes up 4% of the World’s population yet almost 20% of the deaths from (or is it with?) COVID-19. It’s all because of Trump and lack of a Nationwide Mask mandate – that must be it. So what is the explanation for all these European Countries, many of which are doing worse than the US – England, Belgium, Italy with Spain and France right on their heels. It certainly can’t be due to COVID-19 designated deaths being more profitable for the US Healthcare industry. And it certainly can’t be because we have a population with large-scale obesity which caused diabetes and hypertension. Of course we must also believe the data coming out of China, home of the World’s largest population. We need to become close buddies with that regime again. I’m sure they are fully transparent with their death count. And what about India, the home of the World’s 2nd largest population. A Country where they have used hydroxychloroquine as a preventative from the beginning of the pandemic. Not to mention all of the natural immunity they have built up over the years dealing with Malaria, Dengue Fever, and other viruses.
Trump and DeSantis non-restrictive policies looking smarter by the day as the media tries to extend the fear with talks of variants from all over the Globe. “Biden COVID adviser can’t explain why closed California isn’t doing better than open Florida”. That tricky DeSantis must be hiding the bodies, right Emperor Cuomo?
Wonder how much longer career bureaucrats like Redfield and Fauci, and their complicit Mainstream media brethren can justify peddling the fear for ratings from their loyal sheep that mailed in their votes for Biden – even the dead ones. Still waiting for that ever elusive criteria to start opening up EVERYTHING. Has it now become zero new cases, and noone can get sick from COVID-19, like ever again? Local officials blocking fans from attending sporting events and concerts keep saying, “due an increase in cases in the local Community” – or some other gut feeling not based in reality. Yet as we know now, cases, positivity, hospitalizations, and deaths have all been trending down across the Country for weeks. Thank you Operation Warp speed and Herd Immunity.
Does anyone else find it perplexing that in Florida you can go to a restaurant with no capacity restrictions and no mask required once you are seated, but our kids are treated like prisoners in school. I guess we at least have a choice….
If you got kids you better thank your lucky stars you are in Florida. Our kids are in school and exposed to necessary germs needed to help build their immune systems. These kids across the country living in bubbles are going to pay with a weakened immune system because they are not naturally exposed to germs as God intended.
Not to mention the depression and mental problems involved with isolation. Theres also many children who truely rely on school as their outlet from being a victim of abusive homes. This is just the tip of the iceberg. There is many more issues aside from the few i mentioned.
Bye bye freedom.
I think history will show lockdowns were an imperfect and needless destruction of a pretty well working economy. Also shows Trump got bamboozled. He wasn’t quite the 4d chess player he was described as. Far from it.
Comparing the average age of death from Covid to life expectancy isn’t valid. Imagine a virus that kills a billion people at an average age of 78. It’s still the same as life expectancy but I doubt anyone would argue that it’s not impactful.
Interested in evaluating the worst case, I calculated the expected survival rate of a person aged 85 or older to be 84.3% from https://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/table4c6.html.
By comparison, the survival rate for people aged 85+ is currently 77.5% based on https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#demographics. This is likely overstated because not everyone who contracted Covid was tested, but let’s assume it’s accurate.
At the very least, this approach seems to avoid the question of death from Covid vs death with Covid.
Given these numbers, contracting Covid reduces the one-year survival rate of a person aged 85+ by 6.7%. While this difference is certainly not meaningless, it’s definitely not on the order of 911, WW2, or an A-bomb as was suggested below.
The real question to me is whether or not Covid warranted trashing the economy, families, education, etc. Particulary because lockdowns appear to have no effect on the spread of Covid other than to delay it (as was the original intent), I believe the extended lockdowns were a disastrous decision.
Approximate number of those who have actually died “from” the China Bio-Weapon Flu = 23,000
Average age of those who have actually died “from” the China Bio-Weapon Flu = 78
Average life expectancy here in America = 78 (and the CDC just dropped it another year)
Do the math people. We’ve been and are being played like a Clinton/Biden intern.
I have a question with those excess deaths. When you look at the chart on the CDC website, the excess deaths did not start until Mar/Apr 2020.
I know many people who insist they caught the virus in December. Their symptoms matched those who tested positive later on. One person was hospitalized with low oxygen levels and all tests came back negative (testing for Covid was not being done at that time). This suggests to me the virus was running rampant in Florida in December.
If that is true, then why was no one dying until March/April? I’m not sure it makes sense to believe the virus was weaker at first and didn’t strengthen until it was “found” out.
I’m not into conspiracies, but it truly puzzles me. Also, most things I read downplay any report that the virus was here in December, or earlier, yet I have personal observations of what really looks to me that many people had it.
Flu is spread by the same means as other respiratory diseases, such as Covid-19. Since we’ve been social distancing, wearing masks, washing hands, and sanitizing the flu has not had much of an opportunity to spread. It would be nice if we remembered this for next flu season, eh?
Anybody take a look at the flu numbers this year? By most reports the 2020/2021 flu season took the year off. According to the CDC there has been 1 pediatric flu death this year, last flu season there was 195 pediatric flu deaths. Don’t tell me the numbers aren’t be fudged.
No one is being played. It’s not hard to realize that there are 400,000+ more deaths last year than average. This whole situation could have been handled a lot better, but no one is being “played”.
Average age of those who have actually died “from” the China Bio-Weapon Flu = 78
Average life expectancy here in America = 78
Do the math people. We’ve been and are being played like a Clinton/Biden intern.
I’m curious. What impact does everyone think Covid has on the likelihood that a person aged 85 or older survives one year? That is, what is the probability of survival without Covid less the probability of survival with Covid? 0-5%, 6-10%, 11-15%, 16-20%, 21-25%, 26-30%, etc.
Some masking tape ought to do the trick!
Just staple your nose and mouth shut, follow that with some spackle, and wear three face diapers at once… all will be fine.
Yeah, I know……I liked seeing the actual numbers, too. My only guess is that they were getting complaints from people in the counties with lower numbers. I assume they portion them out by population.
Tara I know. That was the case at first. My point is the website keeps changing. What would be the point of not showing the raw numbers of vaccine?
TR: an overlying graph of 2019, 2020 and 2021 flu cases would give great perspective one way or another. The three graphs of tests, hospitalizations and deaths are great!
N1111Z, what on earth are you talking about? Publix has been administering vaccines non-stop for quite some time. And if poor, rural counties get less doses, it’s because they have less people, obviously. Maybe they changed to percentages because people don’t always understand that and complain that their counties are not getting a fair share.
When I booked my appt. on the Publix website days ago, I left the Medicare# blank and had no problem booking.
There are nearly 5 million 65+ residents of Florida. It is a massive job to vaccinate every one of them, and considering this is the first time a task of this magnitude is being undertaken, I think it’s going remarkably well.
Well, more disturbing changes were made to the Florida Publix vaccination signup website this morning. This after blocking anyone without a Medicare card from signing up, keeping medical and first responders from being vaccinated. Now the amount of doses remaining per county in absolute numbers has been replaced with the percentage of doses remaining. Obviously to keep people from seeing the pathetically low numbers of doses being allocated to Florida as well as the even more pathetically low numbers being allocated to poor and rural counties. Of course DeSantis can’t control the number of doses being sent in by the feds but still the manipulation of data puts off a stench of corruption.
The debate should not be centered on “do masks work?” Its common sense that if you have an additional barrier between you and someone else (and they have that barrier as well) that the spread will be reduced. The debate is whether the government and other citizens should have the right to mandate what you do on private property? This is where our highly divided political views are complicating this discussion.
Each side should just give in 20 to 30 % (like with most other issues). When your around someone you don’t know and cant be 6 feet away – throw a mask on. Be respectful If your around someone who doesn’t do it – avoid them – don’t go on a social media tirade of shame – move on with life. Be respectful.
Masks are no trouble – its the arbitrary destruction of small businesses with little science to illustrate why that is the problem. Lets give in to each other on masks and open up the country so the common man can work and own business like the US is founded on.
There are many articles out there attempting to explain why masks are not working as expected in the real world . This one is particularly thoughtful and pretty thorough: https://theconversation.com/face-masks-cut-disease-spread-in-the-lab-but-have-less-impact-in-the-community-we-need-to-know-why-147912.
The idea that mask mandates somehow work is complete bunk. Miami-Dade county was one of the first counties in the state to impose such a mandate and Miami-Dade’s cases per capita are the second highest in the state only behind Lafayette county which had a large prison outbreak that skews their numbers.
If people in power in this Country, particularly the highest paid Civil servant, Fauci, really cared out keeping people from getting sick from COVID-19, versus getting rich from vaccines. they would have followed through on the copious amount of evidence and clinical studies that show both Hydroxychloroquine and Ivermectin are extremely effective as a prophylaxis. Problem is, once that fraudulent and immediately retracted story from the Lancet Medical Journal was published, the damage was done and it became a political football that caused anyone that touted these drugs to be banished, shamed, cancelled, and terminated. There was Senate testimony about this, but good luck finding it if you search using Google. It’s extremely cheap and been around for 60 years, so obviously no use in trying it. Meanwhile, countries that are using it heavily as a preventative, like India, have a mortality rate of about 100 per Million versus UK, Spain, Italy, Belgium, and US who are around 1400 per Million. All of those aforementioned countries have a Nationwide mask mandate, except for the US. I won’t even bring up these extremely Blue counties that have had mandates since the beginning and are still on full lockdown 10+ months later. Stop it with the mask crap, because there is no REAL data to back it up other than what CNN and MSNBC are telling you.
The mask debate is i guess hilarious. It is like riots and everything else – binary to the point of which i could never imagined. If you point out some of the obvious over-kill on masks you are an elderly killing selfish jerk. If you point out that wearing a mask where it is sensible then you are a fear monger. I get it – your really arguing your political position. It seems pretty sensible that if you cant be 6 feet away from someone you dont know – throw a mask on. But at the end of the day if someone is not wearing a mask – stay away from them and make sure you do what you can control – wear a mask. Let them worry about their fate.
We had a close divisive election. Its over why cant people who dont want to wear a mask go out of their way to do so in particularly obvious situations and those who think they should have a say in someone else personal space realize that is too far and mind their own business.
What is more effective at protecting you from COVID 19.
A) Everyone wears a mask
B) Lose Weight, Exercise, get Sun Exposure
If anyone on the news actually cares about lives they would be pushing B. At some point everyone will be exposed to COVID 19. Taking care of your personal health is the most important you can do in order to combat both the spread and lethality of COVID.
This virus effects people with low vitamin D, Diabetes, High-blood pressure, etc much more severely than otherwise healthy people.
If you have or are exposed to COVID it will not save you. Taking care of you general health may actually save you from COVID and/or improve your quality and quantity of life.
Focus on what’s actually important instead of arguing about whether everyone has to wear a mask.
There are two possibilities with mask usage: they are either effective and save lives or they are ineffective and inconvenient. How many potential lives saved is your inconvenience worth? So some maturity, social awareness, and morality and just wear the damn mask.
The scientific evidence shows that they work. The anecdotal evidence from around the world shows that they work. The real world evidence also exists here in the US when comparing counties with and without mask mandates within a given state. So the evidence is that they work.
Putting all that aside, if those of use pushing masks are wrong then we have inconvenienced you; not wronged you, not harmed you; not damaged you beyond repair. A minor inconvenience. To be asked to do so little with so much potential gain in life and an earlier return to economic normalcy and yet to complain, to make partisan, to claim it to be a violation; Sad. Please care about others enough to wear a mask.
The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears.
The mask hysteria has gotten out of control. Case in point, people were up in arms when Tom Brady was seen maskless walking into the stadium for the super bowl, but it’s totally fine for 50 plus guys to be playing football for 4 hours without a mask in sight.
The stupidity and irrational thought has reached epidemic proportions, pun certainly intended. In North Carolina, the campus “mask police” caused a NCAA basketball game to be cancelled because two college kids, probably not even 20 years old yet, were actually caught (ok, snitched on) partying without a mask on like most young kids like to do in College. What is this World, actually really just this Country, coming to? We keep hearing, “follow the science”, yet the science clearly shows these young kids, and certainly these finely tuned athletes are at more risk from getting in a motor scooter accident than getting sick from COVID-19. Still have not heard of one, not one, pro or college athlete getting hospitalized, let alone dying from COVID-19. Plenty have been hospitalized with concussions and multiple have died from gunshots this year. We all know this would be front page news for days on CNN and MSNBC if they could find a case.
Last I checked while on campus these kids are not visiting Nursing Homes. These Universities stopped teaching useful things years ago, it’s all about indoctrination now. Sad
Edward Lyle-Thank you. Glad to read someone who thinks like me. Esp like latest post. Thumbs up. “fart distance’
Well, according to the DJ Biden Fraudulent Sadministration, even though you got your two shots of sugar water and fertilizer runoff at $2k a-pop… you must still wear face diapers and fart distance… and even though the CDC and the “science” says schools can safely reopen now, Slow Joe and his Union masters say no.
Please, Dr. Fraudci… do tell us more about the amazing and unquestionable virtues of “science”.
So, how many Americans have died so far as a result of DJ Biden’s mishandling of the China Bio-Weapon Flu Scamdemic?
Yes, be sure to wear triple masks even after being vaccinated.
Looking at the graphs, thank God DeSantis instituted strict lockdowns for all bars, restaurants, and youth sports on Jan 7th 2021 and mandated double mask wearing….oh wait he didn’t….
Its the same type of trends you see across all states regardless of “mandate”. Thank God DeSantis had some common sense to not destroy lives at the same time as everyone deals with this pandemic.
Just checking in… Are we all dead yet?… should I wear three face diapers?
I think this message board has reflected the thoughts and concerns of the general population during the past year…from the early days when no one was sure about anything…during the whole confusing shutdown…to the re-opening, and the resulting surge….and up until today.
There have been wildly different thoughts and opinions. And that’s life. This board should serve as a research piece for 2020 in years to come.
FAU has revamped their website. Lots of excellent graphs regarding vaccines.
https://business.fau.edu/covidtracker/data/florida-data/
What percentage of 80-year-olds have survived Covid? What percentage of 10-year-olds? Same discussion.
This board has taken a pathetic turn. I am not a citizen so can’t vote. I vote for conservatives in my home country. I can’t believe people are still discussing if we should wear masks. Most of the people now comparing death rates or stating the number of people surviving were using arguments like this at the start ‘we have bigger killers in USA, flu, auto accidents etc.’. Those aged well. No need to reply I won’t be back.
Most states are withholding 50% of their vaccine doses for the 2nd shot (
https://www.beckershospitalreview.com/public-health/states-ranked-by-percentage-of-covid-19-vaccines-administered.html ). Would someone please explain “Just-In-Time (JIT)” inventory management to these bureaucrats! With production ramping up there will be plenty for the 2nd dose PLUS more for additional 1st doses. Gov DeSantis, here’s a huge opportunity to shine!
If you’re going to compare disperate events, you need to be careful to use appropriate denominators.
What percent of those in the vicinity of the WTC survived? What percent of soldiers in WWII? What percent of Hiroshima and Nagasaki residents?
100% of all humans die.
So… how many Americans have died so far as a result of Dementia Joe Biden’s mishandling of the China Bio-Weapon Flu? If Trump was responsible for the deaths under his watch, it’s only “equal” that DJ Biden be held responsible for the deaths under his watch…. right?
99.9921% of New Yorkers did NOT get massacred on 9/11.
99.5711% of Americans did NOT die fighting in WWII.
99.6489% of Japanese did NOT get vaporized at Hiroshima and Nagasaki.
The numbers are BAD. The pandemic is VERY, VERY BAD.
TRUMP! WHAT A SORE LOOSER.
Such a good riddance. Life is so peaceful now behind our beautiful masks.
Crow magnon went back to his cave and took all the cavemen with him.
Some are still opening their big mouth after such a biting.
They don’t want to wear a mask. That’s alright with me. Let the Brazilian virus strand take them away. Less pigs at the table.
Mask up good people. I doesn’t cost a thing. The new Brazil strain is coming up
and it will not be as gentle. More transmissible, more deadly. Mask up while
waiting for the vaccine.
And now for some positive COVID-19 news.
In Leon County, 293,364 (99.92%) of the residents have NOT died from COVID-19.
State-wide, 21,454,328 (99.88%) have NOT died from COVID-19.
Nation-wide, 330,575,000 (99.87%) have NOT died from COVID-19
Maybe if we stop fixating on the negative numbers and track the positive numbers people would start feeling better and this pandemic would be better understood for the reality it is.
Is the virus disrupting our lives or is it the way it’s being reported that is causing panic, anxiety and fear in people’s lives?
If Dr. Fauci is all knowing about COVID why did it take him 10 months to figure out 2 masks are better than one? Theoretically 5 masks are better than 2 masks but people need to I don’t know breathe and talk. All those in the Biden admin. wearing 2 masks are just virtue signaling.
Ugh. Now I’m going to have to wear four masks to look more pious than everyone else!
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/25/dr-fauci-double-mask-during-covid-makes-common-sense-more-effective.html
Trying to discern data from US counties that have a mask mandate is nearly impossible since the enforcement of the mandate varies. A mask mandate on paper in a county where the state governor has dictated that there can be no enforcement is practically worthless; like here in Florida. Also not considered are things like quality of mask, other mitigation efforts, the strain of virus in the area, weather, societal acceptance, holiday activities, etc.
Rules only have an impact when properly enforced amongst a public that doesn’t cheat.
There are no real world apples to apples comparisons. The clinical trials indicate that they are effective and i would hate to see how bad things would have gotten if there was no mask usage at all.
Thank you for these charts. Please add a chart for daily immunizations.
Tara, Tara, Tara, and you made my day by your response! Hang in there, Tara:)
This article has actual data that proves what a lot of us already knew for the past 10 months, masks aren’t effective. At least now, after talking ad-nauseum about a better plan for COVID-19, and getting elected running on this of course, Biden admits there’s nothing he can do to change the trajectory. Democrats, the Party of great ideas, i.e. fantasies, but no practical solutions. Congrats to them, the electoral college was decided by a grand total of 42K votes in 3 key states. In contrast, Hillary needed 75K votes in a few key States to win in 2016. Not exactly a landslide or “mandate for change” having a 50-50 split in the Senate, and the Republicans gaining significant ground in the House:
https://www.heritage.org/public-health/report/mask-mandates-do-they-work-are-there-better-ways-control-covid-19-outbreaks
Three key takeaways from the article are:
While mask-wearing can help to reduce transmission of COVID-19, data show that mask mandates in the U.S. and other countries did not prevent a surge of cases.
During the U.S. surge in the fall, 97 of the 100 counties with the most confirmed cases had either a county-level mask mandate, a state-level mandate, or both.
Governments should take more effective steps, such as protecting nursing home residents and approving rapid self-tests for widespread at-home testing
Pitt, I just noticed your kind words. Thank you, you made my day.
According to the Johns Hopkins Covid site, 48 of our 50 states are now green! Very encouraging.
Every 10 minutes someone in Florida dies from covid, yet vaccination centers are closed in honor of MLK day, and no vaccines are being scheduled in the coming week. But we all got $600 from the government last week, yay!
My husband and I recently moved to a new town. I was due for a yearly physical and went to a local practice. I received a text message saying they had Covid vaccines, I immediately called and waited on hold about 45 minutes (not bad at all, considering), but then they said only I could get the vaccine from them, my husband could not as he was not an established patient.
I thought that was awful. Is that normally what practices do when being given the vaccine to distribute? I would have thought with the current emergency of this pandemic, a medical practice wouldn’t be able to give itself any rights to the criteria of who gets it.
I appreciate that folks are concerned about the various political issues of the day—given their prominence in the news lately—but am I the only one growing increasingly concerned by the recently reported COVID deaths? It appears the daily death count has been spiking, and has very nearly reached the peak(s) we saw during the worst part of the summer. I’m hoping people take a look at this and the increasing hospitalizations and take it as inspiration to follow the CDC’s recommendations to keep this pandemic under some degree of control.
Tara, Tara, Tara,
From all of your comments you seem to me to be a nice, caring, empathetic, giving, generous, sweet person. But, the opponents of Trump are not. For the next 4, 8, 12, 16, 20, 24, 28, 32…..years (and every year in between), Trump will be the bogeyman. God Save America!
I thank God we won’t have to go through another 4 years of hatred for Trump afflicting so many with Trump Derangement Syndrome. Its main symptom is being unable to see anything through the poisonous cloud of hatred always in front of their eyes. Everything points back to Trump, has Trump at the center, and compares everything to Trump. Exhausting.
“it was a coordinated effort to take down the government”
This is one of the most riduculous ideas I’ve ever seen the media push, but I guess some people will believe anything if it’s anti-Trump.
What I remember most about the protests this summer were how many Biden / Harris flags were flown at them. Every. Single. Protest. I saw at least a hundred Biden flags at every rally.
And we all know that the reason Trump lost 60 consecutive election related lawsuits was the DEEP STATE operatives and Chinese interference, not because the evidence provided by his elite legal team was ridiculous. That’s exactly the same as people of color being executed by the police! So as we can clearly see, the motivations for both were identical.
Not only that, but there were daily protests in dozens of cities this summer, literally hundreds of protests, and AT EVERY SINGLE ONE THEY BROKE INTO GOVERNMENT BUILDINGS, THREATENED TO SHOOT LEGISLATORS, AND BROUGHT ZIP TIES. Not only that, but Biden was giving speeches at every BLM protest, encouraging the protestors to march to government buildings and fight. Identical.
Yep, both things are exactly the same. It’s only the LameStream Dimocrats who think anything else, and since they hate America and are traitors, I really don’t see why it matters.
I am kind of confused as to why this page is even up though; I thought COVID was supposed to go away after the election, not get worse. (?) Also, when is Trump going to lock Hillary up? He better hurry! Maybe I can look that up on Parler.
Rioting is rioting no matter what form it takes. Trespassing, destruction of property, looting are wrong no matter what the setting.
The difference in this case is that the capital insurrection was directed by a sitting president and it was a coordinated effort to take down the government. That’s how countries get dictators.
You don’t measure riotous events by how many people were killed or how much property was destroyed, you measure them by who was directing them and what was their intent. And even then, no intent can ever be rationalized because all of these actions are wrong.
But when the President directs people to commit insurrection to preserve his position, THAT is the act that needs the highest level of punishment.
All of the other crimes will be sorted out through arrests (about 300+ in the BL case and about 80 and counting at the US capital).
All this while we watch thousands of people die every day from the pandemic that this website tracks. Very sad.
Alex, I believe the Capitol riots were a culmination of a year of lawlessness and disrespect (the President’s idiocy didn’t help.)
In Seattle, police cars were set on fire, a police station was overtaken, a major highway was blocked night after night, City Hall was invaded, and the Mayor spoke to the protestors and praised them and called them Patriots. 4 young people were killed as a direct result of this accepted lawlessness.
I don’t think we can separate what happened at the Capitol from the the events of this past year. Sure we can find stark differences in each occurrence. But it has been a year of destruction, a year of high tension all around that began with the stress of Covid.
Not sure how we got to the riots, but here we are I guess.
Trump incited a protest. Some of the protestors rioted because they’re idiots. They broke into the capitol and took selfies.
Honestly there were fewer attempts by the protesters to stop the rioters than I would have expected. It would have been easy given how few were rioting. That’s what disappointed me the most about this.
That said, if this was an insurrection, supposedly planned over several weeks on Parler and other extremist apps, by a group of what must be the largest percentage of private owners on the planet, where were all the guns?
I know the media is pushing the insurrection narrative to ensure Trump doesn’t run in 2024, but it’s kind of silly if you really think about it.
Tara
The capital riot was basically an insurrection against the legislative body of our government and instigated by the head of the executive branch of our government. The police response to the capital right compared to the police response to protests (during which there were looters and rioters) is as different as night and day or BLACK and WHITE. There were more police for the other events during 2020 including the ACB hearings and the BLM protests. Trying to conflate the two is erroneous. Nothing compares to a sitting president inciting a mob in an attempt to keep power.
To steer it back to corona virus, it should be noted that the capital rioters were mostly not wearing masks as compared to other protesters during 2020.
Yes, I know, it’s very confusing. I was speaking with some people who were outraged at the Capitol riot. And it was outrageous, to be sure. But, I asked, where was the outrage when 4 people were killed in Seattle, when police cars were burned, when police stations were taken over, when City Hall was invaded. They said it had nothing to do with the Capitol riot, what happened in Seattle was not the same because (*enter justification of your choice here*).
@talesin
I would love to believe your numbers, but if they were accurate the number of cases would be decreasing and the percent positivity would be decreasing as well assuming we were near 75% infected. The trend lines increasing would suggest we are no more than 40% infected unless we are getting infected a second time.
However, if the percent positivity decreases to 3% and the newly infected counts drop to 1-4k then it would suggest your numbers might be accurate. I am hoping I am wrong.
Tara, thank you for the clarification. I am so confused: peaceful protesters or violent mobs, police shooting an unarmed Black person or a Trump supporter killed while assaulting the “citadel of Democracy”, Trump draws 20,000 people and called it a rally or Biden yells at 7 cars and calls it a rally.
.
Pitt, you can get angry as long as the liberal media says it’s something you can get angry at. For example, you can get angry that Trump is responsible for everyone who died of Covid in the US, with the exception of those in Florida. For that, you get angry at DeSantis.
Talesin, thanks for posting. The truth is this virus was weaponized for political purpose and a lot of innocent people were/are harmed/ruined/demoralized, not by the virus, but by the lockdowns. I would get angry, but that’s not allowed in USA 2021.
The CDC estimates that the actual cases are between 8-10x the reported cases. If we take the lower estimate of that…1.4 million reported cases in FL x 8 = 11.2 million estimated actual cases in FL so far. If we say 15,000 new reported cases on average per day for the next 30 days, gives us another 450,000 reported cases or another 3.6 million actual cases (x8) for a total statewide of about 14.8 million out of a population of 21 million. That is almost 70% of the state’s population. Toss in about 1 million vaccine doses given out by then and we’re over 75%, getting close to full herd immunity. Unless the CDC is off on their multiplier or there are a high number of false positive cases, we should be getting close to the other side here….certainly would expect a major slow down over the next 60 days based on the math. Hang in there folks.
With the vaccine picking up steam, can we get a new chart showing total # of people vaccinated in Florida and a separate line that combines vaccination count and people that already had the virus and are now immune? Even though antibody studies are estimating 5x or as high as 8x more infections than the actual case count, at least with the reported numbers we can get a better perspective on the march towards herd immunity. In Florida, since we’re counting Antigen positives in our daily case count, refer to the FDOH dashboard, which inflates our numbers, we for sure know 203,932 more are already immune without having the vaccine – hopefully these people aren’t the first in line for the vaccine. That is only the people who paid for an antigen test, not the actual number which is much, much higher.
“Researchers found that people with antibodies from natural infections were “at much lower risk … on the order of the same kind of protection you’d get from an effective vaccine,” of getting the virus again, said Dr. Ned Sharpless, director of the U.S. National Cancer Institute.
“It’s very, very rare” to get reinfected, he said”
#factsversusfear
Robert, this was not your average Stanford MD, Ph. D. offering a different view. This was a *gasp* whistleblower.
“If you think a Stanford MD, Ph. D. is going to make up stuff to print in a small midwestern college magazine”
I said nothing of the sort.
Robert: If you think a Stanford MD, Ph. D. is going to make up stuff to print in a small midwestern college magazine, then I give you a trophy tin foil hat. CNN? MSNBC? NYT? WaPo? No, Hillsdale College’s Imprimus magazine. Maybe they have more clout than they think.
“A whistleblower complaint filed last week with Stanford University reveals that the Santa Clara study was partially funded by JetBlue Airways founder David Neeleman”
Wait. Are we believing whistle blowers this week? It’s so hard to keep track.
It is not about dissent or not. I am really worried about the direction we are going and pray that something will slow the spread in Florida. Early people in this chat said watch the hospitalizations. We were at 2000 hospitalizations towards the end of October in Florida, 6700 yesterday, this does not look good. Someone told me last week that there is a 0.002% chance globally of dying from/with COVID. As 0.02% have already died it is clear this statistic is wrong. Any research or statistics that are false or misleading can lead to people not taking mitigation seriously, see the reports of NYE celebrations across Florida as an example.
Of course. No dissent allowed. Why am I am not surprised? (I am not a Jet Blue Frequent Flyer)
The science purported by Bhattacharya is incorrect. His case/fatality ratio is massaged to support the infection herd immunity strategy which is very dangerous.
There was a retraction (“update”), see the summary in this article:
https://www.the-scientist.com/news-opinion/how-not-to-do-an-antibody-survey-for-sars-cov-2-67488
Update (May 18): A whistleblower complaint filed last week with Stanford University reveals that the Santa Clara study was partially funded by JetBlue Airways founder David Neeleman
Just found this which suggests that the test used in the study in Santa Clara was not approved… It is a pity we don’t have better data and testing in the USA to help everyone figure this out
https://www.the-scientist.com/news-opinion/how-not-to-do-an-antibody-survey-for-sars-cov-2-67488
Pitt Warner – In the early days we didn’t test. Even if we have 10 times as many people having contracted it as are tested that would put us at 200 million now and well on the way to herd immunity. Given the number of cases in California currently that either means there must have been issues with the earlier analysis or there is no lasting immunity which bodes really badly for the vaccine….
Tom Reagan’s Hat: “Seroprevalence is what I worked on in the early days of the epidemic. In April, I ran a series of studies, using antibody tests, to see how many people in California’s Santa Clara County, where I live, had been infected. At the time, there were about 1,000 COVID cases that had been identified in the county, but our antibody tests found that 50,000 people had been infected—i.e., there were 50 times more infections than identified cases. This was enormously important, because it meant that the fatality rate was not three percent, but closer to 0.2 percent; not three in 100, but two in 1,000.”
Jay Bhattacharya is a Professor of Medicine at Stanford University, where he received both an M.D. and a Ph.D. in economics. He is also a research associate at the National Bureau of Economics Research
Well I cannot BELIEVE that Lee County has suspended vaccinations over the 3 day holiday. Yay New Years! Do they realize they just bumped off a bunch of people? The Feds too? This is an emergency, they should be vaccinating every day 27/7
I have been eating out 5-8 times a week since this pandemic started (except when restaurants were closed). I have also shopped 3-5 times per week at the grocery since this began. And to date I have not yet contracted covid-19. I could catch it today and die from it. My point is protect those who need protection and let the rest of us live our lives and work and do our jobs. I will not live in fear of something that I literally cannot control.
Pitt Warner.. you don’t have a 98% chance of not catching the disease. You have a 98% chance of not dying from it once you catch it (though, depending on other facts about you, that chance could be much lower).
Your odds of catching the disease are significantly higher, and rise depending on how you are living your life (eating out, not social distancing, etc.). You should take the vaccine so the U.S. can get to herd immunity and allow us to get back to a normal way of living without the risk of losing thousands of lives every single day.
I am not a math person or stats person, but pls tell me if I’m off base. I have a 98%+ chance of not catching the Covid virus du jour. And the new antidote/vaccine is 95-98% successful. Why would I take a new vaccine if my odds are just as good with vaccine as not? Please explain.
MJ, it doesn’t mean that at all. TAL’s comparison was apples to apples: average lifespan of those with and without Covid. To compare average remaining life of someone age 78, you’d need that figure for both total and with Covid. We won’t have the latter for another nine years, and I doubt anyone with the data will ever calculate and publish it.
I agree there is almost certainly an impact, but we don’t know the significance, especially when you consider that most Covid deaths have co-morbidities.
TAL – The average remaining lifespan for someone who reaches the age of 78 is 10 years. That means that their life is being shortened if they die from/with COVID.
Some researchers have isolated an allele that puts you at risk for serious illness with Covid just by inputting Geneology DNA from ancestry.com familytreefinder or 23and me. Mine said 4%, which is low, even though i am obese and over 60. http://Www.covidforecaster.com
I think it worked out as well as it could have for DeSantis. We can’t all stay in all the time.
Now they are saying there is a new mutation that is even more contagious. But, luckily, the new vaccine works against it. Thank god for science,
looks like new cases and hospitalizations are trending up… we know deaths lag by 3 weeks give or take.
I wouldn’t take a victory lap just yet… it didn’t work out well for DeSantis months ago.
Tal, I think people blame DeSantis because it is in fashion to dump on Florida and he was a big Trump supporter. Personally, I am so glad to be living in Florida where the shutdown was ended a while ago, and we have not back-stepped into it. Bravo, DeSantis. (I don’t know how anyone could go into politics, especially in this age of social media, where places like Twitter have become cesspools of ignorance. Just go there and search on Florida Hiding Coronavirus Numbers.)
The data means nothing unless you are personally affected by covid such as family member sick or dying. ;( I’m happy to wear my mask to hide in plain sight; and stay home so as not deal with morons driving like idiots and morons at the stores constantly bumping into me. *As you were, nothing to see here, move along.
Really encouraging to see Florida at #20 in terms of deaths per capita with COVID-19. Notice how I didn’t say FROM COVID-19 since we know the average life expectancy for an American is 78.4 years and the average age of death of someone WITH COVID-19 is almost identical. Florida is below the US average by a good margin now and that’s with Florida being just a tick behind Maine for the highest percentage of the population 65+ years old.
Still not sure how anyone could try to say our Governor hasn’t done about as good a job as humanly possible balancing protecting the elderly/vulnerable and letting perfectly healthy people work and try to live a somewhat normal life. I’ll take our situation over NY, NJ, Illinois, Penn, Conn, and Michigan any day. At least we still have personal freedoms in our State, don’t have people coming to our houses checking to see if we are quarantining, having to evade checkpoints at the border, and telling us who we can spend the holidays with.
Robert – The 2500 daily death average is for the country. 95 is the average for just Florida.
MJ: “It is a pity that people still want to politicize a pandemic when the 7 day avg. of deaths is over 2500 and going up. It is not surprise we keep going in the wrong direction…..”
Not seeing where 2500 is coming from. It looks from the chart like the 7-day average of deaths is 95. They printed it on the graph. And though it’s a bit to early to tell for sure, it looks like it may be peaking.
I agree that ideally we wouldn’t politicize a pandemic regardless the numbers, but this one has been politicized by everyone on all sides since the beginning.
I worked in Tokyo for 2 years, masks were a fairly common sight. Mainly worn by people with a cold or flu, hayfever, sneezing etc — a social courtesy in a crowded city esp the subway. You wear it for the people around you, it doesn’t protect the WEARER from much of anything at all. I wear one when required, but mask hysteria has gotten ridiculous. Social distancing and hand washing are key. Let’s not overstate the efficacy of masks. Sure they help some but they won’t end the pandemic. Florida fatality numbers are way way down, that was nice to see.
It is a pity that people still want to politicize a pandemic when the 7 day avg. of deaths is over 2500 and going up. It is not surprise we keep going in the wrong direction…..
You should add graphs to track share prices of the drug companies to see if pandemics are effective at creating shareholder value.
Would be nice to see how many have recovered or been vaccinated.
Are we all dead yet… and if so, do we still have to wear face diapers?
Time to add a good news graph. How about a graph showing the total number of people who already had the virus as well as those vaccinated. Let see the trend towards herd immunity!
I have a feeling that the liberal government will not allow us to remove masks ever… Even if we get the shot. They found a way to take away freedom and destroy us from within. I guess next thing is check points in and out of cities and states and wrong thinking will be punished.
I guess I have to be careful of what I say or they just might come and arrest me for my conservative views.
another mask study from USMC via…
2020-11-16 (5781 Mar-Cheshban 29)
Daniel Horowitz
episode #759: Boston Mask Party; Wuhan coronavirus/covid-19/SARS-cov-2/ncov/novel Betacoronavirus/Pelosi/BiteMe/Cuomo disease vs. out-breaks of influenzas
Andrew G. Letizia, Irene Ramos, Ajay Obla, Carl Goforth, Dawn L. Weir, Yongchao Ge et al.: NEJM: Wuhan coronavirus/covid-19/SARS-cov-2/ncov/novel Betacoronavirus/Pelosi/BiteMe/Cuomo disease ? transmission among USMC recruits during quarantime
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2029717
Navy.mil: masks, distancing, repeated testing, hand-washing, etc., not enough to reduce spread
https://www.navy.mil/Press-Office/News-Stories/Article/2413465/navymarine-corps-covid-19-study-findings-published-in-new-england-journal-of-me/
Thomas Novelly: Charleston SC Post & Courier: masks, distancing, repeated testing, hand-washing, etc., not enough; spread among recruits despite “strict” quarantine…but not much, imo
https://www.postandcourier.com/news/study-shows-covid-19-spread-among-marine-recruits-under-strict-quarantine-at-the-citadel/article_2a5788ec-2510-11eb-971c-bfd51809ada0.html
Charleston SC Post & Courier: what we can learn
https://www.postandcourier.com/opinion/editorials/editorial-the-marine-experiment-didnt-go-so-well-what-we-can-learn-from-it/article_b1cdb6de-2533-11eb-840d-9bcd6af9400d.html
2020-12-14 (5781 Kislev 28)
Ian Miller _Rational Ground_
post-ThanksGiving: still no signs that masks work to reduce spread of Wuhan coronavirus/covid-19/SARS-cov-2/ncov/novel Betacoronavirus/Pelosi/BiteMe/Cuomo disease ?
https://rationalground.com/post-thanksgiving-mask-charts-still-no-evidence-that-masks-work/
Jesse may be a proud liberal. (Not something I would brag about), but He/She is clueless when it comes to dealing with a virus. Regardless of politics. This is a virus!! Do you blame the common cold on politics?
Jesse, you sure are peddling a bunch of garbage for someone, as you stated, comes here for the numbers. The numbers are all above, just stop scrolling down.
Well, we are all frustrated with this Covid situation and need to vent, I guess. You picked this forum to do so. Better that than on your loved ones. 🙂
Glad to see the traffic ramping down on this message board. What a weird conversation. I am fascinated/horrified that so many people are so effectively spinning a situation like this. I am a proud liberal. On this pandemic, I am a conservative. I guess this is an economic debate? If so, those arguing against ultra conserve response to COVID have literally F’ed the country. Morons have put us in the situation we are in, and now they are ultra vigilant. If not so horrifying…entertaining…sad…educational?
DeSantis’ no lockdown/no mask mandate stance is looking pretty sound at this point. Florida’s covid deaths per million just dropped below the national average.
Dan, the deaths on this site are “by date reported”. The deaths on the Florida site are “by date of death”.
Why does data on your web site not match the Florida State covid website data?
https://floridahealthcovid19.gov/#latest-stats
Thanks
A good read. Both maskers and non-maskers can use the findings to bolster their arguments.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4480558/
Most of the studies cited here are really pretty vague and meaningless. They are aimed at whether wearing a mask will completely stop the spread the virus, and people are justifying not wearing masks based on the fact that it really doesn’t fully protect them.
From a “protect yourself” perspective, the very best thing you can do is to constantly wash your hands and use hand sanitizer. Ideally after every contact with something out of your own environment. You can still contract the virus from exposure to your eyes. If you touch your mask, touch any contaminated surface, shake hands, etc, and then rub your eyes, you risk infection.
The upshot is pretty much that, like the surgeon, the mask is to help protect others from you. If you take the attitude that “i aint wearin’ no stinkin’ mask”, You’re basically saying to heck with everyone else.
We seem focused on the fact that wearing a mask, whether it protects the person wearing the mask or the people they might come in contact with, is that it isn’t 100%; it isn’t worth the effort. If you sneeze, or cough while wearing a mask, sure it lets some of the droplets out, but compare that to sneezing or coughing without a mask. Most people spit a bit when they talk. Same principle. Obviously keeping a good safe distance is the third leg in this stool. The only way to be certain of not spreading is quarantine.
It’s really just common sense. If you go outside and it’s 26 degrees out, a sweater is not going to keep you toasty warm. But do you not put it on because it doesn’t?
I heard somewhere recently that sneezing in your mask is the new pooping your pants….
Just to clarify, I am not against wearing masks. I believe we should wear them, and they are certainly more helpful than not.
I think a tiny tiny fraction of a percentage of people are saying, “I ain’t wearin’ no stinkin’ mask”. I think wearing a mask is stupid unless you are sickly or plan to be close to someone sickly but I wear one. The real problem is people like myself are not allowed to express an opinion that is different from the Media, Liberals, or Know It Alls. I think the masking upon entering a restaurant, then taking it off once your water arrives is stupid. I don’t think passing a stranger on the sidewalk requires people to be masked. I don’t think Orange County Mayor should fine businesses $500-$15,000 for not following his mask orders. BTW, it was reported 99.5% of 5,400 Orange County businesses were in compliance. Why make a show of fining 27 businesses unless you’re trying to weaponize the virus for political purposes. Virus is real but political theatre is worse.
I have been following this site (for the data) for 8 months. I have actually been impressed by that intelligence and research capabilities of many of the posters to the message board. That said, this message board is an absolute disgrace. I would suggest to posters—-throughout history, when you have been on the wrong side of right, it has been easy to crawl into the shadows and wait it out. This is a digital record. Your kids can find it….and will be able to 5 years from now. There are probably other social media sites to consider that are far more broad reaching. Erase. Erase, erase, erase.
I have found, for the most part, this board has been a reasonable combination of differing thoughts and opinions, with the occasional name-calling, intolerant post.
This past Thanksgiving, I had 3 previously-invited people who unfortunately had been exposed to the virus several days prior. They said, we will wear masks. Was I comfortable with that? Of course not. Should I have told them they cannot come? That they could not spend Thanksgiving with their family? Should any health-compromised guests been asked to not come?
It was not an easy decision to make. My point is, I did not trust the masks to protect the other guests. I will not be hosting any more holidays until this is all over, I can say that much.
Did anyone get sick?
Funnily enough, one of the people got congestion and a sore throat 4 days later, but has tested negative. Whew! Someone actually got a common cold.
Tara, you shouldn’t feel guilty, or uncomfortable. Based on the early antibody studies I estimate the number of Americans with Covid antibodies to be at least 100 million. ANYONE who has left their house and encountered humans in the last three months has been “exposed.” If you feel you must wear masks when you have family over and remain 6 feet apart. Don’t put your life on hold. Remember Covid is not a death sentence! My health care worker brother and his wife came down with the syndrome on Tuesday. I prescribed the 3-drug cocktail, they had a couple of rough days but are doing fine. They are in their 60’s.
I’m not terribly educated (or maybe I was) so forgive me. Why do surgeons and other medical crew wear masks in surgery?
If your surgeon had a highly contagious virus, would you feel safe as long as a mask was worn during your surgery?
So, then, why does a surgeon wear the mask?
I think it’s so they don’t essentially spit into your body. When people talk small amounts of saliva come out of your mouth. You don’t have to be sneezing or coughing for that to happen. So, even if your doctor doesn’t have an infectious virus it probably is best that their saliva doesn’t get into your open body.
From what I see after reading several things online, it’s twofold — protect the patient and the staff. There are also numerous articles questioning it’s efficiency. The bottom line seemed to be, might as well wear it, it’s certainly better than nothing.
https://www.medpagetoday.com/infectiousdisease/infectioncontrol/16278
My point, though, was to simply think about how much would any of us trust a mask to keep us safe? Again, I agree that it’s certainly better to wear one than to not.
Sometimes you need to just look at the research. The design wasn’t there to determine if masks reduce the spread, but to see if it reduced the mask wearer risk of Covid. So yes, it is, as I pointed out another data point. There are lots of data points, in fact 50 years of them. So explain the logic that if masks can’t reduce the wearer’s risk, it can reduce other’s risk?????? Why are you so determined that masks work? Read the science………..it is weak at best. I get it…….it is one of the few things we can do and that gives us agency against this nasty virus. But, that isn’t science.
Science does support the use of masks…the paper you linked clearly states “The most important limitation is that the findings are inconclusive, with CIs compatible with a 46% decrease to a 23% increase in infection.” and “The data were compatible with lesser degrees of self-protection.” While statistically weak, even it demonstrated a benefit to wearing masks: 1.7% of mask wearers developed Covid-19 vs 2.1%. If that difference, in combination with other measures reduces the rate of transmission from slightly above 1 to slightly below, it would completely change the impact the virus has on the community and the economy.
Here is a study that looks at infection rates after state-wide mask mandates were implemented: https://www.healthaffairs.org/doi/full/10.1377/hlthaff.2020.00818. There was a noticeable reduction in the infection rates following those mandates.
Further studies:
https://www.ucsf.edu/news/2020/06/417906/still-confused-about-masks-heres-science-behind-how-face-masks-prevent
https://www.mayoclinic.org/diseases-conditions/coronavirus/in-depth/coronavirus-mask/art-20485449
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/more/masking-science-sars-cov2.html
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-02801-8
The biggest spread is through droplets, then aerosols and a small percentage through formites. Just spray an aerosol can (deodorant, cleaner whatever) at a piece of paper, see how much ends up on it. Then do the same with a disposable mask between the paper and the aerosol, close to the aerosol nosel as your nose/mouth would be to the mask, again see what ends up on the paper. Please then come back and say there is no difference……
A small experiment which I have done at home. If you come back and say there is not a marked difference you are having problems with doing a simple test.
It is not a determination that masks work, it is common sense based on how the virus is known to be spreading.
Aerosol droplets compared to molecular viral particles is like comparing in size the Empire State Building to an ant. But this spiky virus does want to stick to things so it is a bit baffling
Vietnam now has 1350 cases from its 97M population. In the attached article they said this:
In mid-March face masks became mandatory for all people who were outdoors.
Unlike in other parts of the world, there was little resistance to mask-wearing.
Along with a number of other measures you read in the article. Why are so many people determined that masks don’t work. MIB – ‘I wear only where the power-mad people demand, and for least time possible…’
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-09-23/how-did-vietnam-get-on-top-of-coronavirus-yet-again/12683008
From https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/oct/20/vietnam-covid-economic-growth-public-health-coronavirus
To date, Vietnam (population: 95 million) has recorded 35 deaths from the novel coronavirus. My office building’s response was typical of the aggressive contact-tracing strategy the country adopted from the beginning of the pandemic. During the first phase, the government managed to cut off all the virus transmission routes promptly and comprehensively. Every infected person was hospitalised. People in contact with them were traced to the fourth layer and isolated. Their homes and neighbourhoods were put under local lockdown and sanitised by the army. The country has effectively been acting as if this were biological warfare.
https://fee.org/articles/authors-retract-study-showing-efficacy-of-mask-mandates-as-biden-pushes-nationwide-requirement/
article asserting efficacy of masks withdrawn because of increases in some locations invalidating earlier conclusion; further study required
Masks mitigating the spread might not be debated at the moment, but the science is not only not settled, but is trending toward them not working to reduce the spread. The Danish study was just published looking at 4300+ participants and found no statistical significant difference in being infected between mask wearers and non-mask wearers.
https://www.acpjournals.org/doi/10.7326/M20-6817
I wear my mask where I am asked too, but the Swedish public medical director is correct when he says the science supporting mask wearing is weak.
Hi David
A key line for me in this report is
The findings, however, should not be used to conclude that a recommendation for everyone to wear masks in the community would not be effective in reducing SARS-CoV-2 infections, because the trial did not test the role of masks in source control of SARS-CoV-2 infection.
All the research I read says that if all people are wearing mask the risk of infection is hugely reduced. If you wear a mask but no one else is the chance of spread is much higher. There was another survey that said that 85% of people who contacted COVID had worn always masks. The follow up should that a very large percentage of those 85% admitted to eating in restaurants which means they of course removed the mask to eat. As I said previously you can always find surveys but when the research itself says it cannot be used to conclude that masks would not be effective you cannot use it to make that point.
I think if you are around people a lot you have a good chance of getting this virus, mask or no mask. Unless you stay home all the time and don’t eat around anyone.
Of course, wearing a mask can’t hurt, so why not just wear one. I think when it first started being said that wearing a mask yourself doesn’t protect you, it’s the people around you who need to protect you, was when all the brouhaha started. A lot of people at that time were never wearing masks. And when they were called selfish and stupid, they responded by saying, basically, f#ck you. And both sides dug in.
That is human nature and, ironically, a science in its own right.
The link you provided does not provide any evidence that masks are not effective at reducing the spread of the virus as it doesn’t address the key benefit masks.
Masks are far more effective at preventing the infected person from spreading the respiratory droplets containing the virus than they are at preventing someone from breathing them in. So, while that particular study didn’t find a statistical difference between mask wearers and non-mask wearers, the mask wearers who did catch the virus were possibly much less likely to spread it to those around them.
The reduced likelihood of spreading the virus to someone else is why it is so important that everyone wear a mask. You are not deciding if you are going to take a chance with your health, you’re deciding to risk the health of everyone around you.
Thank you tf and TomD for adding some good explanations about the nature of the vaccines! I will be taking the vaccine when offered. It is the best way to get to a point of safety and being able to regain our full lives again! I worked for 45 years as a nurse and nurse practitioner. Side effects from vaccines are VERY rare. Vaccines are safe. I am also old enough to remember many of the diseases vaccines now protect us from – they are the real danger.
We have many problems because politicians have fomented fear in the public surrounding Covid-19. The truth is that we must still take precautions until a majority of the public is immune to this virus, either from the vaccine or contracting the virus.
What has worked well for years and would work IF people would practice these things: wash your hands (this I can’t emphasize enough), stay home if you are sick until you are completely recovered, cough or sneeze in a tissue or your sleeve, protect the vulnerable. Masks and social distancing in public places – are still being debated. Lock downs of whole communities do more harm than good. Get yourself as healthy as possible and don’t put off seeing your health care provider – small problems only get bigger with time.
Hi Pam, I will also be taking the vaccine. I do not believe masks and social distancing in public places are being debated. There is enough scientific evidence to say that they reduce the spread. A doctor on Fox News the there day said we should have been pushing mask wearing more than washing hands in the beginning. When you google for scientific studies make sure you go to the origin, the major research centers and reputable universities. There are plenty of chats where masks are put down but not in reputable reports.
Keep safe.
I agree that lock downs of whole communities do a lot of harm and should not be necessary, but they are a last resort tool to slow the spread when the number of people needing medical attention exceeds the capacity of the health care system. If everyone does their part and follows the guidelines and recommendations you explained: washing your hands (use hand sanitizer when soap and water aren’t available), social distancing, staying home when sick, and wearing a mask (at least in indoor public spaces in case you are an asymptomatic carrier so you don’t spread it to a dozen other people) there should be no need for lock downs…but when people disregard the guidelines and the case numbers start skyrocketing there can be no other choice.
Vaccines are probably already in town by now. They had some in Wisconsin, and a number of plane-loads left Belgium Friday, probably under 8 hour flight to the East coast. I figure a couple hours transferring & routing, then 2-3 hours to other major cities. Just waiting for final FDA approval.
Typically, crazy NY says they will think about being ready to begin to vaccinate EMT/life-squad, medical personnel, fire-fighters… about 3-4 weeks from now. Probably similar in Tallyhassle. Expect 5K people per day.
I probably won’t get vaccinated any time soon, because of evil cousin ObummerDoesn’tCare, Orwellian HIPAA, etc.
There are + & – with each of the various kinds of masks ? ?. It’s impossible to drag in enough oxygen & get rid of the CO2 while physically exerting with most, and the super medical NP95s expell as though you are not wearing a mask at all, so that isn’t blocking spread from wearer. I wear only where the power-mad people demand, and for least time possible…though spray hands & public surfaces with isopropanol, clean up with detergent & peroxide, etc. I think the “authorities” waffle, pontificate, wear them on chins instead of over nose & mouth when they think the cameras aren’t on because masks are only marginally effective & in limited contexts.
Land of the free & home of brave or groveling subjects?
People educate yourself! Do you really think the government is so trustworthy? Anyone familiar with lawsuit lost by the CDC around the end of February
Not one single study in over 10 something years saying they were tested for safety and not ONE study to prove there is not a link and autism when given too early in life. Read up on the ingredients read up on what happens when that foreign RNA attaches to your DNA
Vaccines are far safer than getting sick from the viruses for which they protect you.
Please get your information from reliable sources, not web pages that generate thousands of dollars of add and sales revenue for quack remedies.
https://www.cdc.gov/vaccinesafety/ensuringsafety/history/index.html
https://www.cdc.gov/vaccinesafety/concerns/autism.html
The original study that demonstrated a link between vaccines and autism was completely fraudulent: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2831678/
If you don’t know someone who has complications from a childhood disease, thank vaccines!
You are misinformed on how RNA vaccines work. They do not “attach” to your DNA at all. The DNA is found in the nucleus of the cell. The RNA strands injected in these new vaccines never make it to the nucleus. They attach to the cell, insert the RNA to the cytoplasm where the ribosomes are located to manufacture the proteins that your immune system will develop a response to. By the way, this is the EXACT mechanism the virus itself uses to invade your body. It “hijacks” your cell’s own machinery to replicate itself. This vaccine works in the same way, but only produces a part of the virus that is not harmful. Autoimmune concerns with these type of RNA based pharmaceuticals are with protocols that call for multiple injections over and over to correct genetic disorders. This would be unlikely with a vaccine against a virus in that it only calls for two doses to elicit an immune response. These RNA vaccines are a major breakthrough that will change medicine going forward.
Sweden banned outdoor group gatherings of more than 8, not indoor.
Sweden is 20th in deaths (616) per million of population in a ranking dated Nov 20, 2020. The US is 14th with 766 per million.
Sweden trusted their citizens to act as adults and did not cause the loss of millions of jobs for the poorest of their population. The politicians on the advice of administrative healthcare researchers locked down the US and cost millions of workers and small businesses their jobs
and livelihoods. This act increased a multitude of social issues while seem, given the above statistics, to have been ineffective in saving lives.
Now we apparently have elected a very rich politician, who does not stand to lose a penny in another lockdown who proposes an even tighter lockdown in January!
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1104709/coronavirus-deaths-worldwide-per-million-inhabitants/
Yes CharlieMac, all good points, but of course I’m not allowed to agree with you because we must all do what we’re told, otherwise we are just minions of the Trump way of thinking. It’s not like grown adults can do research and look at the data ourselves. Sweden only regrets not locking down their elderly and at-risk population earlier, but after months of everyone trying to shoot holes in their strategy, the critics really don’t have a leg to stand on. It’s extremely unfortunate that the Democrats who so desperately wanted to be in charge again were willing to do whatever it took, call it a “scorched earth” policy, to win the Presidency. This even meant putting people out of work, yes, even the ones who WANT to work, not their typical base. It got even worse towards the end when the vaccine was close to fruition, but they had to put out negative press about the vaccine during debates, campaign speeches, CNN interviews, etc, to the point where the people that really need it won’t even take it now.
Obviously masks and lockdowns have worked so well, so why should we try something new like a vaccine with 90+% efficacy. Dems are already on record demanding that masks need to be worn until the end of 2021. These are the same morons who want the US to pay India and China billions of dollars to clean up their carbon emissions and defund the police. Brilliant
Tal – Get off the political soapbox. After what has gone on with the election ‘fraud’ suggestions from the Trump administration to blame the other side for negative press on the vaccine looks ridiculous.
To say ‘Obviously masks and lockdowns have worked so well, so why should we try something new like a vaccine with 90+% efficacy.’ is moronic in the extreme, masks are to get us to the vaccine while trying to have as few unnecessary deaths as possible.
I am not a democrat but believe in democracy before you go off on that tack,
How can an event like Cleetus and Cars be allowed to operate? Watch the videos of 21Nov20. No social distancing, no masks, just utter nonsense. If people are denying (like they did with global warming, and some still are) COVID isn’t real….Smh….Idk what to say to you other than….get your head out of your…
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Interesting…..apparently there was a lung cancer study in Italy with 959 volunteers from Sept. 2019 to March 2020. They tested the blood samples that were taken from each volunteer and 14% had coronavirus antibodies, suggesting it was Italy at least as early as September, perhaps even longer.
https://112.international/politics/coronavirus-in-italy-arise-in-summer-of-2019-scientists-say-56511.html
Interesting…but it doesn’t make much sense on the face of it. How would it be that it was roaming around Italy but rarely, if ever, killing anyone, and once it “shows” in Wuhan it caused a huge outbreak.
I wonder if they could have contaminated the samples at some point? I haven’t looked up the paper, but the article didn’t have much detail. Was it the samples they took back in September 2019 or ones from March 2020? Could the virus have been non-lethal but mutated to something more deadly and that’s when it “showed”? No idea. Hope they look into it further.
This link below is not conclusive but goes into some more information:
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3110576/coronavirus-italian-paper-origins-pandemic-hit-backlash
The scientists in this country are pretty consistent against the virus being here earlier than they originally thought.
I know several people who believe they had it in mid December. They could be wrong, I guess, but it’s awfully odd their symptoms were exactly the same as what positive-tested people had.
Also, to answer your question, there were antibodies found in some early October samples, something one can find as easily as one can find the article shedding doubt on the study linked above which, by the way, is from the South China Morning Post, a Hong Kong newspaper.
It “showed” in Wuhan, Hubei in 2019 August. Hospital visits, traffic, hospital parking lots, communications traffic, etc.
I figure many people were asymptomatic or thought they had common colds, and the Red China ruling gangsters wanted to “save face” so did not announce it.
2020-06-09 (5780 Sivan 17)
John Hayward _Breitbart_
Harvard study suggests Wuhan coronavirus/covid-19/SARS-cov-2/ncov out-break may have begun in August based on hospital & communications traffic: previous efforts had estimated December or October
2020-05-11: Eric Haseltine, Ph.D.: Psychology Today: mysterious blips in records of searches for “SARS” & “coronavirus” in 2019 September & October raise questions about time-line
van Dorp et al.: Science Direct/Infection, Genetics, and Evolution: emergence of genomic diversity and recurrent mutations in SARS-cov-2
2020-05-04: David Cyranoski: Nature
South China Morning Post: time of the most recent common ancestor (tMRCA) of 7666 strains of Wuhan coronavirus/covid-19/SARS-cov-2/ncov
Put your seat belts on, it’s going to be a scary ride for the next 2 months. And a mask would help too.
COVID-related hospitalizations in Florida are about 1/3 they were during the peak in July – 9500 then versus 3300 now. News flash, hospitalizations (and deaths) are always higher in the Fall/Winter months. This is nothing new and is primarily due to the Common Flu and Pneumonia, which is definitely getting blended with these COVID numbers now. Remember, it pays more (Medicare) to put COVID as part of the diagnosis.
I guess those folks in the Midwest that have had mask mandates since the beginning of the Pandemic must need to wear two masks now. New York and New Jersey too,
Protect the vulnerable, and let’s just all agree that we need to get the vaccines and new treatments to the masses, and stop worrying about Trump taking credit. As we all know by now, lockdowns and masks did not do ANYTHING to stop this virus. It’s still here, and exists in every nook and cranny now thanks to Joe’s buddies in China.
Exactly x 100
Masks work. Logically, a physical barrier will reduce (not prevent) spread of any respiratory illness (reduction of potential energy of particles reduces range). Flu numbers are down worldwide because other countries are using them to combat COVID and masks work on more than just this disease.
Lockdowns are not put in place as a cure. Lockdowns used to immediately change the conditions on the ground to reduce the opportunities for disease to spread. Governments were to use this opportunity to improve testing and contact tracing. Regardless of the pandemic, identifying and isolating potentially sick individuals through testing and contact tracing is standard procedure. These techniques are time tested and proven effective.
Medicare pays more when there is a positive test for COVID because it is a real threat that is more expensive to treat currently (PPE, isolation beds, etc.)
Other countries did a better job during their shutdowns when it came to testing and contact tracing. Their economies are already bouncing back.
Most of us are hurting financially from this pandemic and want our economy back that doesn’t mean that the right answer is denial. Just as tourists would avoid a warzone or restaurants/business that appear dirty, tourists will avoid Florida until we get our act together. We needed our state to be a clean, safe place that invites tourists to spend our money here and keeps our elderly safe. DeSantis needs to think longer term as our current increasing caseloads are a direct result of his failure of leadership and focus on the short term.
Not even sure where to begin to rebut most of these untruths so I’ll just state facts that can’t be disputed.
Florida is #14 in the US when it comes to deaths/million and #20 when it comes to cases/million. Yes I’m including DC if you want to split hairs, but since those people get a say in the election, I’m counting them.
This is despite being the 3rd largest State by population and the largest percentage of elderly in the US. I still remember CNN and MSNBC gleefully reporting 2.2M would die in Florida from COVID. Sorry CNN and MSNBC.
People are fleeing to Florida and other Republican run States to get away from these stupid, Draconian measures being employed in traditionally Blue States. Our economy is doing just fine and last time I checked, we still don’t pay State taxes even though crack-head Gilllum wanted it.
If anyone is still hurting financially, it’s because Counties like Broward are still run by Liberals and unelected morons like Bertha Henry,
Other countries, especially Europe, are hurting big time, except for Sweden of course. Sweden treated their people like aduts, and their economy never went in the tank in the first place.
Just the facts please, not fear and hyperbole to try and steal an election,
That’s hysterical, you trying to rebut untruths and spewing out garbage. Too hard to even refute your inaccuracies, but for a start, Sweden just banned indoor gatherings of more than 8 people. Try and keep up if you’re going to play.https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2020/11/18/sweden-coronavirus-surge-policy/?utm_campaign=wp_todays_worldview&utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter&wpisrc=nl_todayworld&carta-url=https%3A%2F%2Fs2.washingtonpost.com%2Fcar-ln-tr%2F2cd0ff4%2F5fb4a9579d2fda0efb6bcdee%2F596a7392ade4e20ee372432e%2F10%2F87%2F749631c8ada26b0c91565dfbbcb63054&fbclid=IwAR0GSfoJoL6dQM-1nUylaVbnd5XESJ2Rckjnpwwow9We0Qfgi8dllq3deLk
Are you saying that Republican run states like South Dakota are doing a good job with Covid? Just the facts please on cases, positivity, hospitalizations and mortality (current figures for example last 2 weeks).
Also the facts on Sweden v its neighbours.
I believe we all need to look at what we can do to stop the spread. We were told by scientists throughout the summer that if we did not bring done the cases to a reasonable level the surge would be much worse, now here we are.
Tal, I see you are on here a lot posting. For someone that clearly doesn’t care about the virus, it’s surprising. You may not care about your health or that of those around you, but some people do, so maybe your time is better served doing something else. You clearly are not going to be a part of the solution here until the virus impacts you or a loved one, which I hope you never have to go through. We have been dealing with this virus since early this year. There is light at the end of the tunnel with promising vaccines that will be here in a few months. Why can’t we all just agree to hunker down for a few months and slow the spread and potentially save a few lives as we wait for the vaccine? I’m not saying shut everything down, just be smart about gathering, practice social distancing, and wear a mask. Is a few months too much to ask?
I see you did not want to reply with facts. Maybe that is because most of your post is your opinion and name calling. If only this was not so serious your post would be funny in its imbecility calling for facts and spouting rubbish.
Rick – Much of Europe is in hard lockdown where you will be ticked for wandering more than 3 kilometers from your house, closing all “non-essential” businesses, and wartime curfews. Meanwhile in Sweden they closed nothing and limited PUBLIC gatherings to 8 people which does not apply to private gatherings. So essentially Sweden has banned concerts. Not sure that qualifies in any way of reversing course in favor of lockdowns. Actually just seems like a highly unobtrusive and reasonable approach.
erm…just facts? :} Pretty sure those are opinions and insults.
You’re drinking the trump kool -aid. Look up the facts. Flu virus is less transmissible than cv19. Cv-19 will kill you more easily. Wear a mask when indoors and be healthy. Flu will be less this year due to mask wearing. Doctors don’t want to see more covid. Doctors don’t make more for covid diagnosis. Don’t you think remsivir/ nursing etc costs more when you got Covid vs flu. Smarten up. This country is being selfish.
I guess we all have a different idea of what “better” is. Sweden’s GDP is in far better shape than their neighbors, please show me something that indicates otherwise. Even more important, looking at yesterday’s data for new deaths in Europe:
Sweden – 4
Netherlands – 82
Belgium – 223
Germany – 244
Spain – 351
UK – 529
Italy – 753
People that watch CNN and MSNBC for their daily news still look at cases as the #1 criteria. Sorry, but I still think how many people are dying is the more important statistic. Silly me
Tal – As you said silly you. Please quote all relevant facts when trying to push your view as you say facts are important.
Deaths per million population for the Nordic countries since pandemic started. In case you are unsure these are Sweden’s most comparable neighbors:
Sweden – 626
Norway – 56
Finland – 68
Denmark- 133
As you said how many people are dying is the more important statistic.
MJ – When viewing demographics Belgium has more commonality with lifestyle along with densely packed immigrant and refugee communities.
Deaths per million:
Belgium – 1,323.23
UK – 803.18
Sweden – 616.4
Netherlands – 501.71
Deaths in Sweden were already on a trajectory three times as high when Denmark instituted their first lockdown (around 7 times higher than Norway). It takes at least three weeks from contraction to die from COVID which would put the first effects on deaths in Denmark at around April 5th (started lockdown in mid-March).
Nordic deaths graph:
https://www.blazingcatfur.ca/2020/04/05/sweden-prepares-for-possible-tighter-coronavirus-measures-as-death-toll-climbs/
It was clear before the lockdowns that Sweden was going to suffer more deaths.
You can “protect the vulnerable” by wearing a mask and social distancing, you can protect the economy by wearing a mask and social distancing, you can relieve the pressure on the healthcare system and our essential workers b wearing a mask and social distancing. All the rest of this is political bull.
mr trump & VP has planned a RALLY in FLORIDA! Plans to FIGHT to be re-elected!
Fight thru DECEMBER. GAWD. Biden is gonna take Georgia.
USA PRESIDENT IS A LOSER with an AGENDA.
1000 percent agree
Florida most likely will not have as many problem through the winter for exactly the reasons you’re stating…it’s warmer and the cold/flu season is milder here, so that will help with this as well since it’s spreads in similar fashion.
The areas that actually have the higher rates of infection right now are the areas that don’t have mask mandates. New York’s positivity rate is just now around 3% because, of course, it’s going to go up somewhat during the winter months for reasons already stated.
The area that I’m in was going up up up and then masks were mandated and then, yes, the rate when down. That’s what happens everywhere people actually start wearing masks. They do help and if you do get it you’re more likely to get a low dose, a less severe outcome.
Can’t understand why you believe this crap. Because your god told you I would guess. I did not already say this as I put my email in wrong and it did not send. Not to worry this person could care less. No sense in commenting. It won’t change the deniers.
Keep our eyes on these figures: total current daily deaths relative to average of past decade, adjusted for population growth. And current TOTAL current hospitalizations vs. average of past ten years. Number of covid deaths is meaningless if we do not know the total deaths above baseline (ca. 8,000 per day nationally).
Without a chart to show how many “HOURS” the average stay in the hospital actual is, the new hospitalizations don’t show the true story. As someone who is currently undergoing Cancer treatment, I am getting to spend a lot of time with Doctors and nurses. I am hearing the average stay is less than 36 hours. A huge number is less than 24 hours.
The total current hospitalizations is important and we are up over 50% in the last month. Lets hope it doesn’t keep going up. Near us hear the largest hospital in Pinellas only has 1 ICU bed free…..
My sister is an ER nurse. About 2 weeks ago, lost her taste, body aches, slight fever. Uh oh, we thought because she is also asthmatic. Sure enough, she had COVID. After a couple of days, she figured she needed to go to the hospital. She was admitted, got some treatments, and was released 24 hours later. Yesterday she went for a test to see if she was cleared to return to work. No one else in the family got COVID and other than a lingering dry cough which gets better each day she feels fine. If she gets a negative test, we will have them for Thanksgiving.
Here’s a good site for hospitalizations:
https://bi.ahca.myflorida.com/t/ABICC/views/Public/ICUBedsHospital?%3AisGuestRedirectFromVizportal=y&%3Aembed=y
I pay attention to the ICU beds and COVID hospitalizations tabs.
Another good site though it seems to be down this morning:
https://business.fau.edu/covidtracker/data/florida-data/
READ MORE
Four years ago after two weeks in the hospital I was diagnosed with late stage chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and sent home to on oxygen daily. After 8 weeks of using BESTHEALTHHERBALCENTRE COPD HERBAL REMEDY, my breathe completely came back to normal. Last week I was checked by a different pulmonologist and tested and he said I don’t have COPD.
Locally hospitalizations continue a downward trend at 29 total; 9 at TMH and 20 at CRMC as of Friday as reported in the Demicrat
I still see people comparing countries and states as to how they have fared with The Virus. But that’s basically impossible.
Things which must be taken into account when comparing countries or states in terms of their success in minimizing the effects of COVID-19:
* Population density
* % Black population (higher mortality)
* Average age
* Island (or nearly an island)
* Cultural norms of conformity
* Strong states vs. Federal govt.
* Vitamin D exposure
* HCQ use
* When they got first infection
* How open the borders
* How seniors are cared for
* Sex rates and number of partners
* Fake news effect
* Privacy limits
* Data credibility
* Lying about contact tracing
* Which “type” of coronavirus dominated
* Comorbidities
* Population density distribution
* Transportation mechanisms
* Average BMI
And of course you have to wait until the end of the coronavirus everywhere to know how a country performed overall. Infections are likely to return to most places that have it under control.
I get that each country is different. Surely each government knows there demographic etc. breakdown so the response should be more aggressive or less aggressive depending on the risk.
For those touting the Sweden approach they have had restrictions on groups larger than 5 since early on (inside and out) and are now tightening other restrictions.
https://www.euronews.com/2020/11/13/sweden-introduces-tighter-restrictions-to-halt-surging-coronavirus-cases
I might never get over this thread. I used to think, if all of these talented people who play guitar hero actually spent the time to learn to play guitar, they would be amazing.
I wore a mask all year. I also use 70 percent alcohol on my hands when I enter my vehicle from wherever I was. I also keep my distance from people. I have not had a cold all year. I like that. I have no problem wearinng the mask. I’m not going to wear it outside. No one is going to make me do that. I’m not wearing in a large store where I am only customer in there. I’m not wearing it in my vehicle. So I hope nobody tries to mandate some national mask wearing outside the home. It is way over the top. Trump handled the whole mask thing wrong. I understand what he was trying to do. We need to get the country open. We are already heading toward paying a big price. The less we are closed the better it will be. Won’t impact me as I already have made my money. I’m safe. But there will be many that will lose their jobs and will not be able to find work. There is a reckoning coming.
I fear you are right. I don’t know how New York City will recover. There hasn’t been a play performed since March. Everyone I know who works there is still working from home. The city that never sleeps is practically comatose.
One of the hardest hit are the hair and nail salon owners. Numerous businesses have gone under. These were people who invested in a business and ended up losing it to a virus that is serious for a very low % of the population.
This is really sad Tara, but it’s all about a political calculation by these liberal Mayors and Governors. Even though small and medium business owners are suffering, they make up a small percentage of the constituents that elect these same clowns over and over and over and over…..
People out of work, no problem, we’ll take care of them and make them totally dependent upon the Gov’t for aspect of their lives. These are the same cities that are flat out broke due to poor leadership and looking to get bailed out as part of these proposed COVID-19 stimulus packages. Most of us know better that these problems were created decades ago, not with COVID-19.
Same with Chicago, Philadelphia, LA, Detroit, Baltimore, etc, etc, etc
It was a sad time that so many people had to pass in nursing homes do to New York gov.
I think this is an extreme oversimplification.
Absolutely correct Debi. As a public health educator/epidemiologist even I find it difficult to work the numbers & analyze what’s happening around the US regarding COVID. We’ll be compiling data, crunching numbers & trying to figure it out for the next 20+ years. People are looking for a scapegoat, pointing fingers when they have no idea what they’re talking about.
Had Trump mandated closures & masks in March people would’ve been in an uproar. Americans don’t like to be told what to do, even if it’s for their own good. People are still resisting masks even when it’s been shown masks are an effective deterrent to infection.
I’m hopeful Moderna’s vaccine which was just reported Monday as being 94.5% effective will become available mid-Dec.for high risk people & our health care workers & the rest of the population by April.
Paul, please help me understand. What is going to happen with the reckoning? I am sincerely asking for more information.
This is a complicated subject and much is still not known about this virus. I would recommend that we give one another some slack. We are all humans and we all want the best for us. It doesn’t matter if the President is Trump, Biden, Obama, or whomever….any President would do his best and for anyone here to suggest otherwise is just a terrible thing to see. Remember Trump lost his brother and friends to the virus. As long as you make him out to be a cold evil demon you have no credibility with me. 70 plus million people voted for Trump. You need to respect that. The subject is complicated and we need to respect one another. Discuss it with kindness.
President Trump has repeatedly said the COVID crisis was a media-driven lie that would disappear the day after the election. I’m sorry, but he is not “doing his best” to fix this problem. As the nation is seeing its highest levels of both cases and hospitalizations since the pandemic started, he is golfing and contesting the results of a fair election… and hasn’t said a SINGLE WORD about the increasingly dire situation. Please don’t defend the indefensible.
I don’t believe Trump ever said the virus a media driven lie that would disappear the day after the election. If you can find the quote, please post it. I’d love to read it. (pls be careful and honest)
This was Trump two weeks ago (the caps are his): “ALL THE FAKE NEWS MEDIA WANTS TO TALK ABOUT IS COVID, COVID, COVID. ON NOVEMBER 4th, YOU WON’T BE HEARING SO MUCH ABOUT IT ANYMORE. WE ARE ROUNDING THE TURN!!!”
To be “careful and honest,” he was not saying the virus itself is a lie, just that the media was sensationalizing it in order to hurt his chances at reelection.
So your original comment above was a lie. Correct? You falsely interpret Trump, spread the untruths, and expect what? Recognition? Fame? You may want to revisit some basic laws of humanity.
So would you prefer Trump stay locked down in a bunker? What is your plan? Personally, I feel having the leader of the free world spreading fear on a daily basis is not really leading at all. What would Biden have done differently, been more empathetic? How does that help? Did Roosevelt say “oh my God, the Japanese killed another 10000 Americans in the Pacific” as part of his daily address? Or maybe Eisenhower should have called off D-Day because a bunch of 18-19 year olds were going to die on the beaches of Normandy. Trump’s actions were far more important than his words or demeanor, which is why we now have a vaccine getting ready to be distributed to millions in RECORD time. That had to be the top priority, along with treatments like Remdesivir from DAY 1. Make no mistake, either Obama or Biden would have kept us locked down and hoped the virus would magically disappear. We know that didn’t work, and caused more harm, but the addiction and depression-related deaths are not being talked about breathlessly by the media. Just look at Europe, except for Sweden, how are they doing now? And that is AFTER prolonged lockdowns and mask wearing. Sweden must be laughing their collective heads off at the rest of the World.
The leader of the free world should be doing his job. Not fighting to overturn a democratic election.
Sweden deaths per m 601 Germany 144 Canada 282. Not sure they will be laughing at the rest of the world. Looks a little better than us but not much.
Making semantic arguments to defend Donald Friggin’ Trump isn’t exhibiting “basic laws of humanity.” This man has never shown an ounce of compassion for the now 240k+ American lives lost to a disease, let alone advocated something as simple as wearing a mask, which if he hadn’t made it into a political statement could have saved many of those lives. We are in the most extreme period to date in terms of cases and hospitalizations and the president of the United States hasn’t said a single word about it, except to accuse a drug company with a promising vaccine of playing politics with the announcement. Instead, he is spending all of his time broadcasting debunked conspiracy theories, filing frivolous lawsuits, and attacking Fox News, all because his feelings are hurt after he badly lost an election. The only thing sadder than the behavior of this narcissistic grifter child is the behavior of those who apologize for him.
OK. You’re unhappy. Check one for the unhappy. Got it.
I’d bet one thing….if Trump had to do it all over, he’d play the concerned father figure, doling out mask-wearing advice and talking incessantly about those who died and what a shame it is. And in between that, he’d be encouraging all his supporters to mail-in vote. If he had it to do it all over……
MJ you should learn to read. Worldometer and Johns Hopkins, Sweden death rate per m better than UK, France, USA, and twenty other nations.
When: Friday, February 7, and Wednesday, February 19
The claim: The coronavirus would weaken “when we get into April, in the warmer weather—that has a very negative effect on that, and that type of a virus.”
When: Thursday, February 27
The claim: The outbreak would be temporary: “It’s going to disappear. One day, it’s like a miracle—it will disappear.”
When: Multiple times
The claim: If the economic shutdown continues, deaths by suicide “definitely would be in far greater numbers than the numbers that we’re talking about” for COVID-19 deaths.
When: Multiple times
The claim: “Coronavirus numbers are looking MUCH better, going down almost everywhere,” and cases are “coming way down.”
When: Wednesday, June 17
The claim: The pandemic is “fading away. It’s going to fade away.”
When: Thursday, July 2
The claim: The pandemic is “getting under control.”
When: Saturday, July 4
The claim: “99%” of COVID-19 cases are “totally harmless.”
When: Thursday, August 27
The claim: The U.S. has “among the lowest case-fatality rates of any major country anywhere in the world.”
The truth: When Trump said this, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Korea, and India all had lower case-fatality rates than the U.S., which sat in the middle of performance rankings among all nations and among the 20 countries hardest hit by the virus.
When: Multiple times
The claim: The media is overblowing fears about the virus ahead of Election Day.
The truth: Has journalism stopped covering the pandemic after Trump lost the election?
When: Multiple times
The claim: “Cases are going up in the U.S. because we are testing far more than any other country.”
HAHAHAHA
When: Multiple times
The claim: The Trump administration’s travel restrictions on China were a “ban” that closed up the “entire” United States and “kept China out.”
The truth: Nearly 40,000 people traveled from China to the United States from February 2, when Trump’s travel restrictions went into effect, to April 4th.
When: Thursday, March 26
The claim: This kind of pandemic “was something nobody thought could happen … Nobody would have ever thought a thing like this could have happened.”
Truth: In case you forgot, this dude was alerted to the presence of the virus in the very end of 2020 and did nothing, while the republicans who knew sold their stocks. The USA might have known earlier if Trump hadn’t dismantled and defunded the US infectious diseases team in China just earlier that year.
Suggest TR report Leon County and Florida stats on hospitalizations and deaths at the same time to get full perspectives.
The current research shows that masks work to reduce the spread and severity of Covid-19 (and likely other illnesses like the flu). The research is indicating that the volume of viral particles determine the severity of the disease. Masks work since they reduce the volume spread and reduce the distance that they can travel by absorbing the energy. Basically, a single bee sting is not a big deal to most people but a swarm of bees can pose a significant risk to most people. Fewer stings means better outcomes. Less virus means better outcomes. They don’t need to block 100% of the virus. Any reduction will result in better outcomes. Universal mask usage is key to controlling the outbreak and getting the economy back up.
I’m going to be as kind as I can be here … site your sources ! (spoiler alert — you won’t find any ).
https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/10/20-0948-t1
there are a lot of caveats. it has to fit properly; you have to refrain from fiddling with it & pulling it down the way BiteMe & Fauci do; it has to be made from the right materials with the right balance between oxygen intake & CO2 out-flow & the 850 billion viral particles per square inch Wuhan.
https://amgreatness.com/2020/10/24/if-masks-dont-work-why-do-we-keep-wearing-them/
https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/pdfs/mm6936a5-H.pdf
Table page 4
“Reported use of cloth face covering or mask 14 days before illness onset (missing = 2)
Case-patients
Never 6 (3.9%)
Rarely 6 (3.9%)
Sometimes 11 (7.2%)
Often 22 (14.4%)
Always 108 (70.6%)…”
Agree Aaron. We need to be careful when issuing irreproachable claims that masks work because there are no scientifically sound studies proving they do and certainly none that are peer reviewed. There is good anecdotal evidence that they can help with very close contact situations like at a barber but almost none on use outside or on universal wearing.
However, open to seeing any updates to this situation if you have any sources. I just ask we stick to sound research and studies before posting low quality confirmation biased “studies”
You are a closed minded idiot that will only accept the truth one a sociopath, sore loser tells you it is ok to do so. Your sad existence that is based on a fanboy love for someone that doesn’t care about you or any of your fellow supporters really makes me sad for you, but don’t let that impact the many Americans that deserve to live and have a happy, full life if we just listen to the intelligent doctors and scientists.
and you had to go down the path of being obnoxious with ‘You are a closed minded idiot’. That’s the best you can do (smh)?
New CDC guidelines do give a list of citations on masks – but as the disclaimer states effectiveness has been demonstrated through observation and epidemiological studies.
The MSM media has politicized masks so much – I worry that we have lost the cornerstone of all infection control – hand washing. Frequent and correctly practiced hand washing is essential – especially because most people touch their masks frequently.
Don’t forget distancing. Every time I go to the store some moron employee comes and stands next to me restocking shelves. Why are you standing next to me? I have a mask on, I have to do my job. Well you’re going to have a hell of a time doing your job from a hospital bed. Distancing is proven, mask is not.
Kevin, you can find many peer-reviewed studies about the effectiveness of masks (various materials) in JAPA and The Lancet. There has been peer reviewed research on scenario-based research of masks by infectious diseases for decades, but the most recent ones (since the beginning of this pandemic mobilization) are also available. A good one recently came out of Japan. Perhaps just based on the chance that they might protect our fellow humans, we could wear one. But if you need hard evidence of how effect a mask is to justify wearing one – happy reading! 🙂
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-02801-8
https://www.mayoclinic.org/diseases-conditions/coronavirus/in-depth/coronavirus-mask/art-20485449
https://www.healthline.com/health-news/the-simple-science-behind-why-masks-work
https://hartfordhealthcare.org/about-us/news-press/news-detail?articleid=27691&publicId=395
https://www.ucdavis.edu/coronavirus/news/your-mask-cuts-own-risk-65-percent/https://www.ucsf.edu/news/2020/06/417906/still-confused-about-masks-heres-science-behind-how-face-masks-prevent
and one on viral load specifically
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.09.13.20193508v2
Perhaps I was not specific enough … “The research is indicating that the volume of viral particles determine the severity of the disease. ”
This is the line that you wrote which is unfounded. I think that you are confusing viral load with viral dose. Viral dose is the amount of the virus that you come in contact which can determine whether you get sick, while viral load is the amount of the virus in your body when you are sick. There are studies which show the higher your viral load the worse your symptoms (https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.09.22.20199125v1.full.pdf) , but there are none that connect the individuals viral load to the viral dose which caused them to get sick in the first place. A virus like this is nothing like a bee sting, it replicates exponentially inside your body and how quickly and how many times it reproduces is a factor of a lot of variables, and none of them are known to be the viral dose that you initially met with (unless you can find a study that I am unaware of).
I am not going to get into the efficiency or effectiveness of masks because that is just beating a dead horse.
So are you saying it doesn’t reduce your chance of catching the virus if there are less viral particles in the air?
No that is not what I am saying and not the part of the original post that I think was wrong. The original claim is that the less viral particles in the air , the less “the severity of the disease.” if you do catch it.
My objection is that as far as I can find there is no correlation between how severely sick a person gets and how much of the virus they initially came into contact with. How much of the virus you come in contact with may determine whether or not you get infected. However, if you get infected I have found no evidence that there is a difference whether it was from standing in a room full of Covid patients coughing on you, or if it was from one person you interacted with briefly.
Ok I get your point. When you said show your sources I thought you were disputing that masks reduce the spread as well as the severity.
Until we have a vaccine in circulation for most of the population I think masks are the best we have for those who cannot be outside and social distance. People need to work and masks are the only way to make it a little safer at the moment.
Mike, maybe you should look in the mirror and do some of your own research versus name calling. Take a look at Sweden, doing better than all of Europe and not seeing any “surge” like the rest of Europe that has had mask mandates throughout. Same with Blue States in the US like Wisconsin, Illinois, and Michigan. The virus is going to do what it’s going to do, a piece of cloth is not going to stop it, and certainly not inside a residence where family members don’t even wear a mask – are you advocating that? Your best defense is being in good shape, and if you aren’t, better to have your groceries delivered and stay away from your family.
Japan and most of the Asian countries are doing better than Europe and the US because most of their population is not morbidly obese and diabetes is not prevalent like it is in the US, particularly with minorities who are 4 to 5 times more likely to die from COVID-19. Fact per the CDC.
The average age of death from COVID-19 in the US is 78, actually 79 in Florida per FDOH. The average life expectancy of an American is 78.4. Coincidence?
All this talk about masks is mind-numbing, there are only two ways to deal with this virus and any other pathogen that has come before. 1.) Vaccine, 2.) Natural Immunity.
Japan is also testing at a significantly lower frequency than the U.S (roughly 22,000 tests per 1M people in Japan, compared to 455,000 tests per 1M people in the U.S.). That could definitely explain the delta between total cases.
You need to test less when you have less community spread not more.. for most of the pandemic Japans positivity rate has been way belo the US hence the need to test a lot less.
There is a reason for this lack of testing in Japan. Their policy is to focus on testing people when they are actually sick and also their insurance plans don’t cover tests for people that want to get tested, “just because”.
“For this reason, the Health, Labor, and Welfare Ministry recommended that patients without any underlying conditions be kept at home, and that testing capacity be focused on people who had had close contact with COVID-19 patients as well as older persons with underlying conditions.”
Same explanation for why the NE States aren’t officially showing MILLIONS of cases since they couldn’t test everyone and everything that moved back in the Spring. Japan also doesn’t isolate and quarantine a bunch of perfectly healthy people which leads to many other mental and physical issues like drug abuse and suicide. This is why hospitalizations and deaths, particularly excess deaths, are a much better barometer.
Why do you think they have a much lower positivity?
If they only test sick people it should be higher than here but it is way lower. This means you can do less testing when Covid is under control. As we have seen in the North at the moment positivity here is through the roof and the virus is really out of control.
I fully agree that initially in the NE testing was not available hence the number is way low there. Another reason it ran out of control is that we had done 8000 tests by early March. S. Korea which had its 1st test on the same day as us had done over 100K tests by early March.
The Asian countries are also using Contact Tracing Apps to isolate new covid cases and stop the spread of the disease. In many countries, the app is mandated along with wrist bands to ensure you stay quarantined. South Korea has a novel covid avoidance app. The State of Virginia released a Contact Tracing app in July and I believe it has had very low acceptance
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/nov/12/covid-infections-in-sweden-surge-dashing-hopes-of-herd-immunity
May want to rethink the Sweden statement.
I live in Michigan, worked in the fitness industry and am considering a move to Florida where I can have a job and some freedom. I pray for the day where I don’t have to read someone virtue signalling online about masks. What have we been lowered to? Are we all going to live in fear until we die? We all die. We all get sick. My god people, wake up. Why would you deliberately give up your freedom in a state that is trying to help you?
I’m going to regret this but…what freedom has someone given up?
If you look outside the state of Florida there are a lot of states that have launched attacks against basic freedoms and many people seem to be willingly accepting it. I will go into just a few of the more ridiculous ones.(most all of these “rights” fall under right to peaceful assembly)
California — The right to hold Thanksgiving dinner https://www.deseret.com/u-s-world/2020/11/1/21541820/california-thanksgiving-rules-guidelines
New York — The right to have a wedding
https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/officials-continue-to-break-up-weddings-large-gatherings-on-long-island/2653322/
Too many states — The right to go out to eat at a restaurant. https://patch.com/illinois/across-il/il-nears-statewide-ban-indoor-dining
These are just some examples of the government overreach. They work for us , they do not get to control us. We are all aware at this point of the dangers of Covid, but life must go on. We are fortunate to live in one of the states that re-opened the fastest , but lest we forget even Florida took away our most basic right of going to the beach to enjoy the Ocean (or Gulf for us west coasters).
Thank you for being an intelligent thinking human being.
Thank you, Brandi. I agree. For the vast majority of people, this is little more than a cold.
I was in a discussion with some friends about why the whole world has gone on board with this. It’s puzzling, for sure. A lot of the deaths are people who were dying anyway. Granted, it shortened some lives, especially grandmas and grandpas who could have had more years. But, to me, at a certain age I expect something to come along that could take me out. And like you said, should we live in fear every day of that something?
I am thankful every day I retired to Florida. I was born in NJ and lived in NY before retiring to FL. We can’t hide from this virus forever….it’s waiting. I heard NY may shut down again. There was one story of a batshit crazy undertaker who was throwing bodies in a UHaul and all you hear is “so many people were dying they had to put them in trucks.”
Are you referring to the refrigerated trucks they were using to hold the bodies? If there was a story about 1 person using a UHaul I missed it so I just wanted to clarify.
The freedom to not wear a mask? Do you feel the same way about seat belts?
I think seat belts are a good comparison. Do you really need a seat belt in 20-35 mph, stop and go traffic, with lots of traffic lights, school zones, ped crossings, suburban settings? I usually belt up, but if you’re a careful driver driving in a typical small town setting under 30 mph, I think I’m not in harm if I don’t buckle up. (I wear a seat belt 98%). Driving on a highway at 60 -70 mph and getting blown away by everything from Tuners, truckers, bikes going 80+ mph, I always wear a seat belt. Same with masks. Wear them where it makes sense. Walking on a sidewalk past diners eating outside, I don’t really need to worry. Same with people on sidewalks. I don’t care if you’re not wearing/not wearing. So far, so good.
If you are “only” going 25 and are in a head-on your air bag will have your head resting in your lap. Air bags are the best reason to wear a seat belt.
The level of ignorance is appalling. Wearing a mask helps save lives.
My take on Brandi’s post was that she was concerned with loss of jobs and the freedom to work. Her comment on masks was just on the never-ending conversation about them, as evidenced here. The name-calling and insults and everything being about masks is exactly what she said she was hoping would end. I could be wrong, but I don’t think she meant not wearing them.
Brandi,
PLEASE! Educate yourself. Look at Japan’s numbers compared to the USA. Using data from the CDC (an American organization), in the US, you’re 50 times more likely to catch Covid, and if you catch it you’re twice as likely to die. What’s the difference? Japan has NO mask shaming Republicans.. They’ve been wearing masks every flu season since the 90’s. LOOK AT THE DATA NOT THE TELEVISION. DO YOUR RESEARCH. THEN APOLOGIZE TO EVERYONE YOU’VE TRIED TO SHAME.. ignorant ass.. please DONT move to Florida, weve already got WAY too many self righteous Yankees..
Well, with all that name-calling and insults, I question who is doing the shaming. Brandi said nothing about masks.
Oops, she did mention masks. But still, your comments were uncalled for.
Mike,
You are comparing completely different populations, climates, and ethnicities.
Obesity Rate in US is 42.4% (this is insane)
Obesity Rate in Japan is 4.3%
Its been shown that High Blood Pressure, diabetes, and metabolic dysfunction in general are significant co-morbidities of Covid 19.
I posit the significant difference in Covid spread & outcomes between Japan and other East Asian nations vs the US has more to do with the obesity rate than mask wearing. Also, prior to Covid, although Japanese people would wear masks in public, it was limited to those who were already sick. Not the general population. Having a virus, and being sick are two different things. Humans are exposed to countless bacteria and viruses on the daily basis. We are not always sick.
The research on the efficacy of mask wearing is not out. I agree that in most cases wearing a mask doesn’t hurt. Its just not the full proof solution people are making it out to be. Wearing masks is not going to prevent you or anyone else from being exposed to or contracting the disease. Especially since the general population are not capable of appropriately wearing masks consistently.
Ex: You adjusted your mask with your hand so that it covers your nose because it slipped down, boom you could have spread Covid from you hand to your mask.
And lastly, as if on cue, you proved Brandi’s point about just mentioning masks online will bring out the virtue signalers.
Hope you stay safe and educate yourself on all the aspects of the pandemic. Single factor analysis is very easy to do, but is generally useless for policy and personal decision making.
There is still no solid scientific proof that masks do anything other that encourage people to forgo measures that have been proven, such as not standing shoulder to shoulder next to me and washing your hands thoroughly. By scientific proof I mean large long-term double-blinded studies. Everything else is inference and extrapolation. Japan has lower numbers because of masks? Correlation does not imply causation. Who’s the a$$?
You tell him I am 1 of those grandmas that would like to spend a few more years with my family so I will wear my mask and ask anyone near me to do the same
Brandi. You must be young and healthy. I’m glad you are not in an at risk category. I am going to be 70 next April. I have great friends and a lot more living to do. I am doing 6 zoom exercise classes every week to stay strong. I had a trip to Alaska planned with my sister who is 4 1/2 years older. My sister has a mild case of emphysema. I am hoping you will choose to wear a mask to protect us as we would probably fare worse than you. You have the freedom to choose to care for your fellow human beings who are at a higher risk.
Important message for you:
https://www.fox9.com/video/862966
Where are the local stats? Are they in an upward trend in hospitalizations as Florida overall?
Johns Hopkins finally updated their numbers for Florida to more accurately reflect positivity. They now show the Florida 5% positivity rate correctly.
FL positivity (10/31, 1:16 PM) = 7.94%
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/region/us/florida
From that link:
*****
“The count for this metric is incremented up by one for each day on which an individual person is tested, no matter how many specimens are collected from that person on that day. If an individual person is tested twice a day on three different days, this count will increment up by three.”
*****
I really don’t understand why they count anyone more than once. People who get COVID need a negative test before they can go back to work, so of course they are getting tested more than once. Some people get tested several times before finally getting the negative.
Another example of “torture numbers long enough and they’ll admit to anything.”
That is an incorrect link and stat, 7.94% is from beginning of pandemic. Current 7 day positivity rate is 5.7%.
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/testing/individual-states/florida
One can view the stats for themselves to see how poorly New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, and Massachusetts performed.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1109011/coronavirus-covid19-death-rates-us-by-state/
Rankings of example US states (some have statewide mask mandates)
here:
https://www.beckershospitalreview.com/public-health/states-ranked-by-covid-19-test-positivity-rates-july-14.html
a few examples
Data points were last updated Oct. 31. Data for positivity rates and tests are seven-day moving averages. New cases are daily counts as reported by state and the District of Columbia. The information cited is from the Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center. States are arranged in descending order of test positivity rates.
Vermont: 0.5%
New York: 1.5%
California: 3.1%
West Virginia: 4.4%
South Dakota: 47%
Alabama: 20.9%
Take whatever NY, NJ, and Conn are reporting with a grain of salt. We all know millions of people actually had the virus in the Spring, just couldn’t be tested at that time unless they were sick enough to go to the hospital – which well over 95% of people that test positive never request hospitalization. The antibody studies conducted in New Rochelle and Brooklyn show this. This means there are very few people left to catch it at this point. If they officially reported on antibodies, that would be a completely different story.
Wisconsin has had a mask mandate since the beginning and now has a positivity rate between 15 and 20% per Johns Hopkins – 7-day moving average of 13.7%. Maybe they should wear two masks in case the first one falls off.
Finally Johns Hopkins got onboard with Florida’s reporting and is now showing a 7-day moving average of 5.2% for Florida. This is with pretty much everything fully opened now, unlike California. I’ll take Florida’s policies hands-down over Cali. We don’t have people leaving the State in droves due to Emperor Newsom.
Death rates per 100,000:
Worst:
New Jersey – 184
New York – 172
Massachusetts – 144
Connecticut – 129
Best:
Vermont – 9
Maine – 11
Alaska – 11
Wyoming – 15
Noted:
South Dakota – 46
Alabama – 59
Hard to claim New York did well when the only stat that matters contradicts that claim so strongly.
One can view the stats for themselves to see how poorly New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, and Massachusetts performed.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1109011/coronavirus-covid19-death-rates-us-by-state/
Wednesday evening, CDCP reported that Florida had an accumulative 938,830 “cases”, 4.408% of population, 18,157 fatalities, 0.085% of population, fatalities/infected rate 1.934%…(unless I made a typo). Panic, everyone!!!
One reporter noted that a high percentage of fatalities have been among people expected to die within 6 months if SARS-cov-2 never existed. And then there was the Croatian who fell off the ladder, hit his head, bleeding between brain & membrane, arteriosclerosis… an obvious case of Wuhan the MEs say.
Can we get a graph that shows positivity rate and Rate of deaths? I want to compare on the same graph a trend line showing the positive cases with negative outcomes. In other words, I’m hoping it will show that when cases are trending up, hospitalizations and deaths are holding flat or trending down. The bar charts show it but they are isolated so I would like to see the charts combined
Yes that would be super helpful
Easy to do if the data is available.
For Mindy,
This page has a really good graph showing all epidemiological curves:
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/covidview/index.html
To those who continue to question masks, here is a definitive study, a “natural experiment,” recently summary of Kansas citizens in counties with vs without mask mandates. I suggest that those of you who are not scientists (and do not know what the simple meaning of p-value is, for instance) please refrain from stating unsubstantiated statements such as many in this thread. Examples: The virus will be no longer a problem on Nov 4. That is simply untrue. In order for someone to really believe that, one would have to believe all counties in the entire U.S. would be “in on the conspiracy,” not to mention the co-conspirators in all of Europe. Why do you think the Canadian case per capita is >3X lower than ours (5.3/100K CAN vs US 15.5/100K)? Are Canadians NOT in on the “liberal” conspiracy? Here is an excellent summary of the data from multiple countries, where Canada clearly has done so much better than U.S. as a whole. Obviously their cold weather is like our Wisconsin weather. Wisconsin is now under major crisis, such that they had to open a field hospital.
What would you say to the 34-yo lady who has double pneumonia and is happy to have received care in that field hospital?
https://www.nbc15.com/2020/10/26/coronavirus-patient-at-wisconsin-field-hospital-say-care-is-high-quality/
Wisconsin opened an alternative care facility for COVID-19 patients Oct. 14 as COVID-19 hospitalizations tripled statewide over the last month:
https://www.beckershospitalreview.com/patient-flow/wisconsin-hospitals-on-the-brink-as-field-hospital-opens-6-notes.html
Here is an article in FORBES, a right-leaning publication, showing how well Canada does:
https://www.forbes.com/sites/niallmccarthy/2020/10/15/how-excess-mortality-in-2020-compares-infographic/#4646651867a2
Proof that I am not pushing only “left wing” publications for this argument:
https://mediabiasfactcheck.com/forbes/
Do you notice an uptick in the number of sirens going through your neighborhoods? Those are people struggling for breath being carted off to the hospital, where they will lay alone in their hospital beds. And no, hospitals and doctors offices are NOT inflating covid numbers simply to get more money. Here is a full explanation for why this is a flat out lie (and really hard to believe that people would fall for this, again thinking that there is a massive conspiracy underfoot to make the current administration “look bad.”
https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2020/oct/27/donald-trump/trump-wrong-claim-us-padding-covid-19-stats/
Regarding “SARS-cov-2 was weaponized. Li Meng Yan, M.D. who allegedly worked there, said in September interviews that it was” This has been disproven WITHOUT a doubt. This “Dr. Yan” did not publish a real scientific journal article. Here are several studies (again published by real scientists who use their real names, that show the lineage of the virus:
(Ironically enough, we are so good at genomics sequencing these days, with subsequent bioinformatics analyses, that we can even trace the different strains and how they got spread around in this country. The vast majority of those that killed the New Yorkers in the early days actually were infected by viruses coming in from Europe:
https://asm.org/COVID/COVID-19-Research-Registry/Basic-Virology#evolutions
(scroll to the bottom of the page for a list of real scientific publications, under “Evolution & Phylogenetics”)
NY strains study (one of several):
Introductions and early spread of SARS-CoV-2 in the New York City area
https://science.sciencemag.org/content/369/6501/297
Regarding this one: “All of this mask wearing is going to cause people to get deathly ill from a cold because you’re not building your immunity.” You need to read a basic immunology text book, my friend. Immunity is very specific. Although some common colds are caused by coronaviruses, this particular virus is significantly different so that who do contract COVID will have no immunity against colds or other similar viruses. I can point to several places. Here is a basic immuno lesson:
https://www.khanacademy.org/science/high-school-biology/hs-human-body-systems/hs-the-immune-system/a/hs-the-immune-system-review
Again, this person is believing Dr. Scott Atlas and his push for herd immunity which has been propogated throughout this state. Please do not state “examples” of (n=1) people who normally wear masks and do not normally wear masks, and subsequent anecdotal “evidence.” Again n=1. True, the regular masks (not N95) do not protect you from contracting it. The masks are meant for all to wear, to prevent you from spreading it. Most of us do not have the luxury of wearing N95 masks out in public. (expensive and hard to find). If I am wearing a mask in Publix, but a maskless person comes near me and expels droplets in my area, of course I could get it. That is why it is so frustrating that people refuse to wear masks.
What about this one: “There is no hiding from it, people are going to get it, just need to protect the vulnerable.” That is PROMOTING HERD IMMUNITY. (thanks to Dr. Scott Atlas, America’s favorite MRI Radiologist, who has been “selected” by the WH since he is the only person who agrees with opening everything up, with no mask wearing and no physical distancing. All well and good, except the “vulnerable” cannot be completely isolated from the young and the reckless who are getting the disease. Ever try to go to the grocery store and avoid coming near the maskless? Impossible. The young and the reckless are keeping us trapped in our houses.
From the Mayo Clinic: “there are some major problems with relying on community infection to create herd immunity to the virus that causes COVID-19. First, it isn’t yet clear if infection with the COVID-19 virus makes a person immune to future infection.
Research suggests that after infection with some coronaviruses, reinfection with the same virus — though usually mild and only happening in a fraction of people — is possible after a period of months or years. Further research is needed to determine the protective effect of antibodies to the virus in those who have been infected. Experts estimate that in the U.S., 70% of the population — more than 200 million people — would have to recover from COVID-19 to halt the epidemic. If many people become sick with COVID-19 at once, the health care system could quickly become overwhelmed. This amount of infection could also lead to serious complications and millions of deaths, especially among older people and those who have chronic conditions.”
https://www.mayoclinic.org/diseases-conditions/coronavirus/in-depth/herd-immunity-and-coronavirus/art-20486808
(Simple, just calculate it — to get to 70% of the population, you would have to allow 0.6*325,000,000 = 195,000,000 people to get it. Of those, how many will die? Let’s be generous and err on the low side of death rates shown on this page:
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/mortality
If you push for this natural herd immunity “strategy,” then 195,000,000 people in US contract it, and again if you are using the *low end* of the confirmed death rates:
0.005*195,000,000 = 975,000 will die.
If you use the median (again see chart in page jhu.edu/data):
0.02**195,000,000 = 3,900,000 will die.
(And please, don’t use that n=1 instance where someone died on a motorcycle but they were counted as covid death. Sometimes overwhelmed hospitals and Dr. offices make mistakes, when they are holding the hands of those dying alone, or holding up phones for last face time with family members….sorry cannot help being snarky.)
Here’s more info to prove that you would have to have 60-70% get it to achieve natural herd immunity:
https://www.mdanderson.org/cancerwise/what-is-covid-19-coronavirus-herd-immunity-when-will-we-achieve-herd-immunity.h00-159383523.html
And don’t forget about long-term damage to survivor’s hearts, eyes, etc. since don’t forget this is a vascular disease that causes irreparable damage that will stay with them for the rest of their lives:
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7467860/
And about this: “The risk of contagion in such places is so low as to make wearing a mask not necessary. And remember, exposure does not mean contagion. Per the CDC, contagion requires extended exposure to a symptomatic person in close proximity.” *Incorrect.* Even brief encounters will result in contracting the virus. The CDC updated its guidelines based on several studies, including this one:
https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6943e1.htm
And here (again from a scientific publication, but this one is written for the lay person):
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-02801-8
Re: “Over 2.8M Americans die every year” — YES but we can PREVENT the COVID deaths. Every rational-thinking, logical person who has enough sense to read more than Facebook “news” knows that the actual COVID deaths are WAY underestimated. COVID deaths (actual documented ones) are the third leading cause of death. We are losing K-12 bus drivers, custodians, and cafeteria workers (not to count the teachers) from being in contact with asymptomatic maskless students on buses.
Last, “If you are old or health compromised stay home. Everyone personally knows their health situation. We live in America- we have rights and freedoms….” We do not have freedoms to infect others. That would be akin to “we have our freedom to drive drunk. If you are afraid of being in a car accident with a drunk driver, then stay off the roads.” Old and compromised are not living in bubbles. We unfortunately come into contact with those maskless “free folks” who are infected but are presymptomatic, or those very young who are bearing high viral loads and still perhaps remain asymptomatic. Noone lives in a bubble. All people need to wear masks to prevent themselves from infecting others.
This is the Kansas study: https://ipsr.ku.edu/covid19/images/MaskMandateUpdate.pdf
Thank you Doctor. Very long winded response quoting some generic media articles. Without requiring a list of articles, you should take a present look at an entire country called Sweden. I would suggest reading the current Economist article on it. . . . Their story rebukes every statement you made.
“Do you notice an uptick in the number of sirens going through your neighborhoods? Those are people struggling for breath being carted off to the hospital, where they will lay alone in their hospital beds.”
THAT. Is reckless fear mongering, and it’s a shame because it undermines everything else you said.
Well, is it true, or not, that folks who are hospitalized are alone, with only nurses and other hospital personnel there to comfort them? I personally have been separated from my 84-yo father with cancer, and the only time I see him is through phone “face time” (actually the android version, “video call”) when the hospice nurse has time to do a video call. In our neighborhood (we purchased this house last year, March), we never heard sirens. Our neighborhood is between the hospital and a major hotspot (a small town that has had mask burning ceremonies and where people successfully forced the town council to drop a mask mandate). Whereas between March 2019 and March 2020, we would hear a siren on average 1X per month, we now hear them on a regular basis, at least 1X per every 2 days, usually 1-2X per day. Just stating the facts. And yes, it is scary, especially since those in power either to (a) hide the data, or (b) distort the data to morph the statistics to fit their political agendas.
*”THAT. Is reckless fear mongering, and it’s a shame because it undermines everything else you said.”*
… Yeah, my thoughts exactly. Nothing exposes a crackpot better than shameless demagoguery.
Yeah, more sirens. That’s very scientific.
A long post that is very unconvincing. France, Belgium, Netherlands, UK are reporting more cases than the entire U.S. The U.S. is now reporting less than half the cases per population as the E.U. The U.S. kept the curve manageably flat (which is what was prescribed from the beginning) and did so while having less than half the economic drop as E.U. Now much of Europe is back in lockdown.
People can blame Trump but America is doing much better than other large nation or nation blocs.
Don’t even look at South America where there are more deaths per capita and dramatically underreported numbers due to lack of testing resources and records. Canada is a very small population country that emerged from lockdown in the their mild summer; we will see their situation in January (Quebec province is back in lockdown, so they are not a success story even now). Whereas Americas outbreak was pronounced in the summer in the Sun Belt in indoor A/C weather.
The answers always lie somewhere in the middle. While there is much to discuss in your article, I’ll just point out the herd immunity conversation. As a voracious reader of medical literature for over 2 decades, I’m very familiar with most aspects of delving into statistics as it relates to research. With herd immunity, those against seem to be dancing around the research on residual T-cell immunity, which may be present in up to 50% of the population. How else would you explain a sub-20% spread in households, where exposure almost absolutely had to occur? Have some residual T-cell immunity from exposure to other coronaviruses when the individual’s immune system tagged the antigen as a conserved segment of proteins would go a long way towards explaining this, and is supported by the research that has asked that question.
TR – Can we get a set of graphs that covers from the start of this pandemic – so we get the context of these bar graphs? It’s hard to find graphs that go out beyond 3 months.
Here:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/florida/
Yesterday I went and early voted. And, no exaggeration, this happened:
A couple came in behind me without masks. A woman on line, with a walker, yelled out, “Go out and put on a fucking mask.”
And the guy said, “No, no, I’m not.”
Then the woman said to another guy, “And you put your mask up over your nose. That’s where all the germs are. I’m a nurse, I know. I see all the dead bodies.”
So the guy said, “I’m not wearing it right? Then I’ll take it off.” And he took it off.
Then the woman said, “Then stay away from me, you germy slobs.”
Sigh.
The case watching is maddening. There were only 2100 cases the day before, noone talks about that. The US has been doing > 1M tests per day for the past week or so, a couple times it was 1.2M. The positivity rate is in the same range as it’s been for months, 7-day moving average is 5.7%. Once again, more fear mongering, not an actual surge other than a few localized areas in Wisconsin and Illinois. Sooner or later people are going to understand how math works. For sure the virus is here, and has spread far and wide. There is no hiding from it, people are going to get it, just need to protect the vulnerable. Masks are not effective, but wear one if it makes you feel better. Lockdowns do more harm than good. It would be nice if Democrats would stop pushing back on the vaccine, because we know there are only two ways to mitigate the virus at this point. 1.) natural immunity, 2.) immunity by vaccine
I have to tell that I laughed a bit when you said that sooner or later people are going to understand how math works…….are ya sure about that? :} But I’m totally with you on the lack of an actual surge. Before this year whenever the media was “catatrophising” I just assumed that most people really didn’t believe it and people just moved on. This year I realized I was wrong about that. For example, I live in Florida so whenever they would go on about a hurricane that was supposed to hit I figured most people realized the real risks and if they are in an evacuation area they most likely left the area. Now I realize I’m wrong about that and people take them literally and are being scared to death. I’d love the media to find the middle and report on things factually.
I would disagree that masks do not work. There is mounting evidence that while the virus is still spreading people are not getting as sick…which amounts to a vaccine like effect for whatever period of time the disease will allow immunity. Before now there was no way to ethically test if masks work for this type of virus…now we are getting real world evidence because we have no choice.
Debi, I would be willing to bend a bit on the mask thing if we all could agree that most of the cases are coming from family members under the same roof and people hanging out in a bar for hours. We know people are not wearing masks in their own home, and not when they are seated at the bar, so wearing a mask at Publix or Home Depot when you might be in close contact with someone for maybe a minute or two is not how this thing spreads – on the CDC website, not my opinion. I do agree that people are not getting as sick now, but that is a function of two things, 1.) the viral load which comes back to how long you were in close contact with someone that has it. Obviously being under the same roof, or even in the same bed, is going to expose you to a much higher viral load. 2.) we’ve learned a lot in 7 months, and there are better treatments and strategies as my wife (RN) has seen first hand.
Do we still say we are not seeing a surge?
We know that the most likely spread of virus is through droplets in the air. Aerosols spread it as well but to a slightly lesser extent. For all people who say masks are ineffective or don’t work please try this at home. Take a sip of water and then hold a sheet of paper 6 inches from your face and cough with the water still in you mouth. Then put on your mask and do the same again. Compare how much water hits the paper.
I understand wearing masks is not great but it is much better than being locked down.
It’s not so much whether masks are effective, but rather whether they make a significant difference in low risk areas such as shopping in a store. The risk of contagion in such places is so low as to make wearing a mask not necessary. And remember, exposure does not mean contagion. Per the CDC, contagion requires extended exposure to a symptomatic person in close proximity. 🙂
A better analogy is cigarette smoke. The particles are considerably larger than viruses so masking should be more effective for cigarette smoke. Consider an enclosed area with smokers puffing away: do you think that having them wear a mask, or you, the victim, having a mask, will make any difference? Do you think that you will not smell the smoke? Surgical or cloth masks will not protect you. Maybe they make people feel better??
Well said. We all need to take a slow deep breath and lower the anxiety level that the MSM and Democrats keep trying to pump up.
Why do so many people who claim to not care about the virus or say it isn’t that bad come on here and comment. Seems odd, “if you don’t car.”
Because people apparently want to burn the village to save it, and that effects everyone…
The same thing happened to us when we early voted. The young guy behind us didn’t have on a mask. It was almost an hour wait, mostly outside. He was the only one I observed with no mask. I got him to back away from us pretty quickly though. I coughed loudly (in my mask) several times and he kept his distance. Lol
10/22/2020 – So we have 5,489 new cases today. However, if you look into the data you will see that Florida conducted 97,984 tests yesterday. We have been averaging about 400,000 tests a week statewide. So I am supposed to believe that suddenly 97 thousand plus people decided to get tested yesterday? Seems fishy to me. Probably another data dump.
To JFK. On the same page where the statistics are reported in between the statistical charts if you will look and read them they say things such as when there is an extraordinary number such as 97,000 that means that the day before the test weren’t reported so that day includes two days worth of tests so if you would read the rest of it instead of just peeking at the chart and coming to erroneous conclusions you would understand that it’s basically correct they say 44,000 one day and skip a day and then 97,000 the next day then that means it was about 44,000 those two days. So just read everything that’s very important in a statistical analysis.
Test reporting will vary for a few reasons. 1) test laboratories reporting may be delayed so the date of reporting is not necessarily the day they were tested. 2) testing for people without symptoms is voluntary; you will see that testing is always down on weekends; 3) when tests results are submitted, they must be validated and that could cause a delay; 4) as in any reporting, looking at a single day will be misleading, which is why they report trends and and 7 day rolling averages. Data collection, validation and reporting at the volume that covid requires is a challenging exercise.
Dear Journal, the hospitalization chart is missing, and a duplicate of the fatality rate is in its place. Thank you for this documentary work though, it is very precious.
Corrected.
Did anyone notice that the deaths and hospitalization charts were identical?
Corrected.
I don’t whether SARS-cov-2 was weaponized. Li Meng Yan, M.D. who allegedly worked there, said in September interviews that it was, with at least 3 genetic modifications, mainly in the “spikes” to make it a more effective cell attacker. Might be blowing smoke or not.
Many people have been doing searches, reading through journal & pop articles. We’ve studied photos of people sneezing with & without masks. We’ve read of durations of infectiousness on various surfaces in normal light, under UVA, UVB, & UVC. We’ve read that peroxide (3%+) & ethanol (50%-70%) & isopropanol (70%) & chlorine are effective disinfectants for it but benzalkonium chloride not so much…that sometimes a higher percentage is less effective because it evaporates too quickly. We’ve seen the graphs, much like those here at TR, of new cases per day or week, comparing the shapes for Sweden, Denmark…
We’ve been tracking the stats. We were told (I heard it on radio) that effective herd immunity would only be reached after 60% or more of the population had been infected or vaccinated. Months back, a survey test sweep reported about 21%+ of NYC residents were probably infected. After a lot of hysteria, CDCP is now saying only 7% of those tested are positive, only 2.46% of the USA population has been infected, 0.066% of USA population has death attributed (correctly or not) to ncov. Worldwide 0.524% infected, 0.015% death attributed to betacoronavirus. But the graphs seem to suggest some degree of herd immunity already. I know of no hospitals overwhelmed. Masks mostly work, eye-glasses mostly work, washing hands mostly works…nothing’s perfect.
(I am not a doctor, not an epidemiologist. My mother & grandmother were nurses — surgery, geriatric… Several of my old school friends are docs, nurses or retired from same. I have done some microbiology lab work in middle school & uni, and read some biochem, microbiology, & a terrifying pathophysiology text reminiscent of F. Paul Wilson, Michael Crichton & … Mira Grant fiction.)
I think the media has been drumming up hysteria all along from ignorance or political motives. But, as with arms, we need to respect the Wuhan & take reasonable precautions. Individuals differ over what’s reasonable. That’s part of what makes USA freedom great.
We shouldn’t be surprised that those who don’t fear getting covid would get tired of wearing masks for the 37% at high risk of getting covid badly. After all, we all care #1 about taking care of ourselves primarily. Nothing wrong with that, because it’s about self-survival. But please, don’t get within 20 feet of those wearing masks, since they only stop the larger droplets, and a sneeze or cough can go 19 feet unaided by blowing ac or heat blowers.
Amen to Susan’s comments!
It is nature-have you heard of survival of the fittest? If you are old or health compromised stay home. Everyone personally knows their health situation. We live in America- we have rights and freedoms or at least we use to. That’s why I thank God everyday I was born here and call this great country home. I am older and don’t go out except when absolutely necessary. I wear a mask and wish others would too but if they don’t I avoid them-it is their right. This won’t last forever- be smart, be patient and quit blaming others. Take responsibility for your own safety. This isn’t the first pandemic and sadly face it, it won’t be the last.I would be more afraid of losing my freedoms than the pandemic. Studies show people wearing masks get COVID as well.
Great points Susan, it’s amazing how only one cause of death seems to matter right now in the US, most of the other Countries have stopped reporting with the level of detail we do. They certainly aren’t going out of their way to code a death “COVID-related” when it’s borderline at best – most of the time they don’t do a PCR test beforehand. The average age of a COVID-related death, if you even believe the numbers, is 78, actually 79 in Florida per the FDOH. The average life expectancy of an American is 78.4.
There is always going to be that one off story about a perfectly healthy 30 year old dying from COVID-related causes. Over 2.8M Americans die every year, a lot of them were perfectly healthy, but they died in a car accident, suicide, brain aneurism, rare mosquito-borne illness, snake bite, etc. I remember hearing about this perfectly healthy 16-year old dying in Florida from COVID. Then you find out he weighed 300 pounds and had a blood-glucose level of 1000. I checked with my wife who is a RN and she agreed that kid was not perfectly healthy, not by a long shot. Problem is, parents probably never went to a Doctor so in their minds their kid was perfectly healthy, so keep feeding him fast food.
Time for Americans to wake up and take better care of their health and not penalize those who have been taking care of themselves all along. We’re making it worse and creating more far-reaching mental health issues, not just for the elderly, but our kids as well. My daughter is being treated like a leper in her high school so I’m THAT close to keeping her home because it’s creating more problems sending her in with all these protocols designed to keep the selfish Teacher’s Union safe.
Applaud your common sense Susan!
susan,
while one appreciates your upbeat and accepting attitude, your acceptance of survival of the fittest could easily been seen as accepting eugenics and accepting others “freedumb” to go maskless as inviting their abuse of the social contract and validating their potential to harm you.
having said that, for effect and reflection, dont believe those were your intended meanings.
society and the social contract are often in direct conflict with the “natural” concept of survival of the fittest. in truth our society is all about the survival of the “un-fittest”. we dont leave babies with deformities or down-syndrome out the cold, we dont ask the old to go off and die (ok arguably some of us do), once their no longer producing. Do you think special needs programs or behavioral therapy or any kind of medicine for that matter is “survival of the fittest?”
its not freedom to go maskless during a pandemic, particularly when a high percentage of people infected are aysmptomatic or presymptomatic. think of them as THOUSANDS of typhoid marys (though in fairness to mary its not been established clearly that she was as depicted)
given that many “carriers” have lasting lung and heart damage, though admittedly not established as long term or permanent, their long term health impacts are still unknown. partly because long term studies of any mild respiratory illness have not really been studied.
back to the social contract, it is VRY reasonable to expect others to reciprocate your masking particularly when its the law. And its well within the governments purview to require the citizenry to adhere to legal mandates based on best practices for preventing/reducing the spread of deadly pathogens.
while its great and preferable when people voluntarily adhere to recommendations to protect themselves and their fellow citizens. when they don’t and disease spreads beyond control harsh legal enforcement is not only reasonable but demanded. sadly it will likely come to that, mostly because ignorance and misinformation.
freedom is not free, part of the cost is adhering to law. freedom as some see it, in opposition to the laws that dont suit them and in line with disdain for the social contract, is anarchy. in fairness, since the most recent “law and order” government seems to feel anarchy and chaos are its guide, its not really surprising that a good portion of the nation is running around doing their best “cartman impression”…”i do what i want”
basically, its not reasonable for wanna be sovereign citizens to act in abeyance of reality putting the health and safety of others at risk. so no, you really shouldn’t just accept thats its ok or normal for people to act with disregard for the safety and health of yourself and others, because even if you avoid them its just a couple links in the epidemiological chain back to you or someone you care about .
applauding your live and let live vibe, but also saying, while we can and sometimes should make allowances for others eccentricities, just not when it impacts the health and safety of the citizenry as a whole as it does in this case.
It is inarguable to say wearing masks/protective screens is the right thing to do. It’s safe, it’s considerate, it’s comforting, the list of good things goes on and on. There is no argument against it.
But that still won’t make everyone do it, and the current pushback on those who don’t is not helping anything. “Non-maskers” will only dig in deeper when they’re being called selfish and harmful to the wiser, better “maskers”.
We all know that ridiculing and demeaning is not the way to get good results from people, yet it’s being done anyway. Then communication breaks down, and people are just talking through each other. I think that’s where we are in this country when it comes to the mask debate.
To your “current government” chaos and anarchy point, surely you’re talking about the Democrats who are applauding the anarchists who are creating chaos in their cities?
There is no law saying you have to wear masks. Businesses and some states claim to mandate masks but you can’t just make something a law because you want to, it’s unconstitutional. Masks are not full proof. I’ve known a few people personally who have had COVID. 1 couple did not wear a mask. He had some achiness and fatigue. She was asymptomatic. Another couple wore their mask anywhere they went. They went very few places and if they did they sanitized their hands before and after and of course hand washing. They both got it. She was sick with vomiting, lost sense of taste and smell, fatigue. He was asymptomatic. My son works for a gym. Back in May his girlfriend felt sick at work. Before she left to go home they hugged, touching faces with no masks. She was sick with fever and fatigue for about 3 days and then worked out and caused her to throw up but she was fine after about a week. My son was asymptomatic and he was living with us. None of us either got it or we were asymptomatic.
We are all either going to get it or throw it off. Yes people will die but guess what none of us are getting out of here alive. This country needs to get healthier but it’s a choice. All of this mask wearing is going to cause people to get deathly ill from a cold because you’re not building your immunity.
Yes it’s scary because no one knows if they will have major symptoms or none. We should never have shut down the economy. The cure cannot be worse than the virus and it has been. They have children, who are the very least susceptible wearing masks. That’s crazy. People are working in these things for 8 to 10 hours. It’s all about fear. They can’t even count numbers correctly. Die in a car accident but you test positive, it’s a COVID death. The media lies about everything.
I trust in God. I pray for protection but if I get it, I know He is with me through it. If He takes me home that’s a win. You realize they will never want you to stop wearing masks. They have you where they want you in fear and following like sheep. It will be wear your mask, there might be one person out there that has COVID and it could spread into an epidemic again. So as they put it this will be the new normal.
not as many people wearing masks get it as those who don’t. And they don’t spread it as much as the non-maskers, since the masks help contain and block the larger droplets.
AND local communities and states have every right to mandate mask wearing. It is NOT unconstitutional. They can write a law and you can be fined for transgressing. The Supreme Court will back them up. If you don’t believe me try walking around naked and see how long before you get arrested.
I personally know 3 younger coworkers that contracted Covid at work. 1 in his 30s passed away 1 in his 30s was sick for over 2 weeks and 1 in his 50s sick for over 3 weeks and needed hospitalization. Even those that recovered still have lingering effects after months of being negative.
My experience. I personally knew two people, ages 19 and 46, who died. I have had two staff members who tested positive, but like a lot of others the symptoms were mild. They are young, mid 20’s. My brother in-law, a firefighter, just tested positive a few days ago, and my sister in-law tested positive two days ago. So far, so good.
You should buy a lottery ticket. The odds of knowing personally persons ages 19 and 49 who were fatalities are approximately 1:17,563,421
How did you calculate those odds?
My experience. I personally knew two people, ages 19 and 46, who died. I have had two staff members who tested positive, but like a lot of others the symptoms were mild. They are young, mid 20’s. My brother in-law, a firefighter, just tested positive a few days ago, and my sister in-law tested positive two days ago. So far, so good.
After 7 months, I’m bringing my staff back to the office two days a week beginning Monday. Because this virus is so unpredictable, they will be required to wear masks, distance and follow other procedures. No exceptions. I never want to feel that a member of my staff, or the people they are in contact with outside of work, get sick or worse because I didn’t take precautions and require what I could.
I am 46 and tested positive for Covid in August. I had minor flu like symptoms and a light cough. My youngest child had no symptoms and oldest lost taste for a few days but no other symptoms (both teens). My wife (also my age) had a cough for a week. We all tested positive.
This was our experience.
And yours is the majority experience, a point often forgotten
Let’s give our personal experiences with Covid. Meaning, people we really know, not my boss’s mother, or my best friend’s brother’s friend type of stuff. People we have spent time with a few times a year for at least a few years.
My experience is I know 4 people who had Covid. Ages 63 to 89. Each one ended up having zero effect on them after 2 weeks of diagnosis. So, what do 4 zeros add up to? One big, fat zero.
They were lucky. I do believe the virus has changed though. I supposedly had covid earlier in the year and was extremely ill. It started with a high fever, cough, nausea and diarrhea. I went to the ER and said I tested negative for seasonal flu. The next week I went back with being short of breath. My oxygen levels were in the mid 80’s, I had pneumonia and a massive pulmonary embolism. I was airlifted to a larger hospital for a special clot busting technique. I was in the hospital for five days. Covid wasn’t being tested for at that time. I left the hospital with an enlarged heart and breathing issues. My cardiologist said I most likely had covid because of my symptoms and being negative for flu. At age 63 I feel blessed that I had great health care and got through it. Prior to getting sick I was at a theme park for several days where I probably was exposed. So to issue a blanket statement that no one gets it or gets through it easily is a huge disservice. I still have issues with stamina months later. I’m not saying we should hide in the basement but we shouldn’t ridicule those who take this serious and want to protect themselves and others. Stay well everyone.
I am not issuing a blanket statement. I issued my experience and I was quite clear in asking honestly for others’ experiences in an effort to understand the fear.
I appreciate your sharing, as that is exactly what I’m looking for. I want to understand why this virus continues to be so in the forefront, while I have not personally seen why.
I do have a relative who was hospitalized in early February with breathing issues and low oxygen levels and tested negative for everything, was given steroids and sent home with an asthma inhaler which has never been used, and has since tested negative for Covid antibodies.
I just think there is so much we don’t know, and the fear-mongering is not right.
So, anyone have any other other experiences?
Thank you for your response. I didn’t mean to come off as a fear monger. I believe the msm has done a huge disservice about this virus scaring everyone. The emotional damage done by the fear is just as bad as the virus if not worst. Instead of shutting down and cowering we perhaps should have gone to mask wearing sooner. I go out and about living my life taking precautions.
Thank you, too. I’m glad you are feeling well!
Tara,
unfortunately, the 220 thousand plus persons who could best answer your question are unable to respond.
As are the 100,000 who died in 1968, and we didn’t shut down the country
In 2008 I almost died of the flu, at the age of 50, but I didn’t.
On September 27, 2020 my 88 year old mother died of a massive brain bleed, she also tested positive for COVID 19, her death was listed as COVID even though no one knew she had it until she was admitted to the hospital from her assisted living facility, she had no symptoms and no one else in the facility has tested positive, so excuse me but it’s no worse than the flu that killed far more!!!!!!!!
I almost died several times in my youth. What are the odds?
Friday, CDCP reported the odds of getting the Wuhan in Florida at 3.682% aggregate, paying no attention to age, etc., & 0.078% of the Florida population have had the Wuhan attributed as cause of death, of those infected, 0.212% have died from it.
I could understand the fuss, masks, hysteria, etc., if the infection rate were 65%, 75%, 80%, and if 30%, 40%, 50% of population had died from it. It’s not like USA cities have never struggled through such epidemics.
They also started splitting out NYC from NY outside NYC, with the city being considerably worse. They should also report the whole state. Ditto for Florida, Miami-Dade. I like that TR has been tracking the county.
Early on, in survey testing, NYC was up over 21% positive for infection; now they are reporting considerably lower rates. There are some questions about PCR amplification in later tests. Is 4x sufficient (higher risk of false negative), 40x too much (higher risk of false positive)? There is some range of exposure that healthy immune systems shrug off without cranking up, and a different range for hyper immune systems, & another for those impaired, e.g. from transplant rejection suppressors.
At least the docs are using something resembling the scientific method to improve the treatment regimes.
My wife’s uncle, very smart/educated, died from Covid at age 92. 2 weeks ago. He was living in an ALF in PA, no family visitations since March. Family has shared a January 2020 video where he describes his Korean War service in the Air Force. No sign of any mental decline in 1/2020. Great American Success Story cut short by the WuFlu, IMO.
Sorry for you and your wife’s loss. He sounds like a wonderful guy.
I know about 15 people who have had covid. Most of them are young service workers – 25 to 35. For all but one of these, it varied between almost no symptoms (fever and/or aches, might have never known except for testing when fellow employees took ill) to a severe flu. One was very ill and took over two weeks to recover, most were less than a week.
I also know two other individuals, one a 45yo man and his 70yo mother. He is somewhat overweight, she had a stroke a couple of years ago. They both developed pneumonia and were admitted to the hospital, quickly being transferred to icu. She passed away, he slowly recovered. She was admittedly not in perfect health, but she was unlikely to die this summer had she not been infected. I’m still grateful we did not lose him.
Anyway, my personal odds look like ~6% compared to your zero percent. Obviously, the actual numbers lie somewhere in between.
FWIW, I work in a lab and have regular contact with medical staff who can’t possibly avoid contact with infected individuals entirely. I have not been within several yards of another unmasked human in over six months. I am lonely and frustrated, but as of yet I am healthy – as are the relatives I can only contact and try to help support via phones and internet. I will continue this as long as I must, but I sure hope we are closer to the end than the beginning.
I am so sorry that you have been put in such a place of fear. I am 58 and have been working ever since this has started. Out in the public every day and I know no one that has had this and I continue to live my life as I have always done. The only difference is I wear a mask. The N95 that is the only ones that really works. All other masks give people a false sense of security and most likely cause people to get infected because they think they have protection but don’t. You need to go out and live life it is the only life you have.
My 85 y/o mother had all the symptoms a few weeks ago but tested negative. She recovered after about a week. Thirty-something nephew got symptoms a week or so later and tested positive. He felt like crap for three or four days but was back 100% in less than a week. Because he’s a teacher he had to quarantine for 14 days.
Wife or I fly nearly every weekend. We’ve been up and down the east coast from Florida to New Jersey a dozen times or more in the last several months.
To my knowledge, none of my co-workers or their families/relatives have tested positive.
Given the following premises:
Masks and social distancing efforts work to reduce spread of pathogens.
Covid-19 is a real threat to the life and health to you and your loved ones.
Florida is a stand your ground state where you can use deadly force against reasonably perceived threats.
Refusing to wear a mask puts individuals at risk; it is like brandishing a weapon.
Conclusion:
There will be some dead, maskless covidiots and the assailant will probably serve no jail time.
Whether or not you believe masks work, others do and feel threatened when you don’t wear one. Gives new meaning to: Mask it or Casket.
You have serious issues, and you should see someone about them soon. Remember to wear your face diaper when you do.
Edward, you sound Republican, and should face reality and truth here soon, but I’ll bet I’m too late. I’ll bet you even believe jet fuel can melt building structural steel thats been fire retardant treated. Building code since 1930 something. LEARN HOW TO READ AND EDUCATE YOURSELF!!!
We’re too fearful to be free anymore. This is a perfect example and explains why we’re in the process of giving up on America and choosing Socialism.
I think it’s odd that so many none mask supporters who don’t believe Covid-19 is a problem, check this site for statistics. I also believe people like Alex don’t do the pandemic any justice by posting ridiculous comments about people using stand your ground as justification to shoot none mask wearing people. It’s just silly. We must follow state and local laws and policies and when we don’t agree with those laws and policies for public and private places outside of our home because of safety concerns or impediments on our rights, we don’t participate in those places. Full disclosure, I believe this is an awful pandemic and we should all follow the CDC guidelines and we could quell it, but I also believe in laws and policies. So if people don’t want to wear a mask or social distance, I avoid them. I don’t dine at restaurants, but I don’t have a problem with people who choose to. We all make what we believe to be the best choices for ourselves. My choices have kept me healthy throughout this pandemic. Until we have FDA approved treatments and/or vaccines that significantly reduce the current percentage of getting seriously sick or dying, I will continue on my path. We should all choose our own path and respect each other’s choice, as long as it abides by the laws and policies within our cities, counties, and state.
Yes follow the science. Every mask you buy tells you on the package that they do not protect you against the virus. Study from The WHO says 90 percent of the people that get the virus wear a mask and stay at home unless absolutely pessary to go out. I guess you think that if everyone wore a mask 100 percent would never get the virus. You need to think before you comment.
My point was that it has been established that one merely needs to reasonably feel threatened in a stand your ground state to respond with deadly force. Whether or not you personally believe in the risk, it would be difficult to claim that others don’t. Your unmasked face can reasonably be conceived of as a gun (loaded or otherwise) and you can be infectious and not know it. A lawyer can feel free to chime in and show were I am misinterpreting the law. I welcome facts and I don’t own a gun (as I am not so fearful).
We need a universal response to a virus that can/will affect us all. Masks and social distancing have been shown to work. Quarantines have worked for centuries. This is a come together opportunity that has become politicized. Your rights end when they interfere with mine. My right to life Trumps your right to go mask free. Calls for personal responsibility have failed. No one cares that God is watching and judging the harm brought by covidiots.
Edward – I have a serious issue with people who would rather deny the current science and put others at risk of death. When I see people, I always wear a mask. Any time you interact with persons outside your household, you should too.
Robert – We can be American and embrace what works in other countries. I would rather see more social programs that give Americans the foundation needed to have great careers and start business, etc. You can’t pull yourself up by your bootstraps when you never owned shoes.
Jack – If scaring one more person to wear a mask and that reduces the spread to 20 more people, then it is worth it and any criticism that I receive. Maybe it made someone seriously consider the gravity of their choices. Also, it may allow Florida to revisit the stand your ground law and fix or repeal it.
It should also be noted that If you know that you have been exposed and have reason to suspect you could be contagious and still go out and expose/endanger others you could possibly be personally sued by persons you infected. That goes for parents sending their kids to school and exposing other children and teachers when they have reason to suspect their child might be contagious. Bottom line keep your gun holstered and sue them. Threaten their wallet and I bet more will take their actions more seriously.
Thank God you don’t do this kind of Tracking for the FLU.
We have been turned into communities where people can’t socialize, need to stay away from each other, can’t go to work because work has been shut down or, if you’re lucky, you work from home and have no in-person human contact.
In New Jersey, everyone is encouraged to report social gatherings to the police. If you fly into New York or New Jersey from a state they consider a “danger”, you have to fill out a form giving your email, phone#, airline, flight# and seat#. As of now, there are over 30 states on that list. This is done under the umbrella of contact tracing.
What next?
Eventually, everyone will catch the China Bio-Weapon virus (take-19) It’s simply a matter of time and yes; “science”. The good news is… about 99.5% of us will pull through. The others will fall victim to their comorbidity conditions exasperated by the ChiRona.
Wearing a mask to protect yourself against a viral infection, is like wearing a t-shirt to protect yourself against a bullet. Wear one if it makes you feel better about yourself, but don’t expect miracles and stop pretending it matters.
The China Virus is now a full-blown political campaign strategy exploited by the Demunists and supported by the Media PACs, and no longer has any real applications or concerns for public health. Andy “Auschwitz” Cuomo sentenced thousands of innocent people to death due to his homicidal malfeasance, and the Demunists and their Media PACs praised his leadership… let that sink in a bit.
… carry on… oh, and wash your hands often.
I really liked the style and most of the content of this post. So much so, I copied and pasted into a local fb group saying I found it on a comments page elsewhere. Naturally, a philosophical opponent immediately responded to the post. “Offensive”. “Incorrect”. “involving Holocaust”. I guess it’s more powerful than I thought.
you are surely edward trump, not edward lyle.
A lot of discussion about masks and our response. Mask wearing is much more political here than in most other countries, though there are demonstrations all over the world.
Found this info very interesting I think it shows that compared to most countries the US has learned least over time….
https://www.axios.com/united-states-coronavirus-death-rate-a40eb02b-bf8c-4146-8ef2-3cfd6b22de5b.html
We even lag behind Sweden. While everyone think they are going for heard immunity, gatherings of more than 50 people are banned indoors and outdoors. Compared to that our approach seems inadequate. Especially as we have examples shown on all news channels of large gatherings with most people not wearing masks. We should do something similar to limit groups of people.
Did you even read the link that you posted? Directly from the source:
“Yes, but: Death rates are not static, as this study proves, and outbreaks in several European countries have taken a turn for the worse lately.”
Come back in 5 years and you will have your answers to who had the best approach. Spoiler alert — There is a very real chance that every country ends up similar regardless of approach. So in the meantime ask yourself how much freedom you are willing to give up and for how long?
I have my answer already and it is no more than I have already lost, and I will start fighting for those back as well. Quality of life is important too!
I am not sure how death rates increasing now changes the data? Going forward it will change.
I do not want to give up my freedom and that is why I am concerned that there is so much fighting against masks and restrictions on numbers of people meeting. In Sweden, which is touted for going for herd immunity, They limit gatherings to 50 people indoors or out and are trying to enforce it. Here we ignore the easy things and fight on partisan lines against a force of nature rather than using common sense.
Quality of life is hugely important hence the need to take steps to slow this spread until a vaccine is here. I am absolutely against lockdowns but as long as the example of super spreader events is in the public eye people will not stop meeting in large family/social groups which will be a problem.
Unfortunately if you read the international press (not just the translations that are given in US news) while not a complete laughing stock they are shocked at what is going on over here.
Mike, so sick of hearing how the US is the laughing stock for this or that from Europe of all places. Most of those countries were flat broke before COVID due to their Socialist policies, mainly due to healthcare and education. In any event, I just read a study done on the European nations pertaining to excess deaths. Most European countries have basically stopped reporting COVID-related deaths, partially because they aren’t testing as much to know if someone is positive before they died, and they certainly aren’t wasting test kits on people after they died – my India colleagues echoed that for their Country. The article also said England and others aren’t reporting because not everyone is reporting the same and some will look worse than others. Where have we heard this before. Instead, the only fair way is to look at excess deaths compared to previous years. While the US is around 11-12% excess deaths, not good, England, Wales, and Spain were at 37% for multiple months during the peak. This is why trying to judge our numbers against Europe, Russia, China, Iran, is absolutely futile and meaningless. The US Govt doesn’t control the news here, that’s for sure.
Someone else said on this blog that we need to wait a few years for the dust settles to really evaluate each Country’s strategy, that is spot on.
Taking a snapshot of the data at a point in time does not give you the slightest clue as to what the whole story is. It absolutely matters a ton if the death rates are rising again in Europe and ours are declining. Check the numbers again in 6 months .. and then a year , and then 2 years. At that point you will have some idea of what might have worked and what might not have (although you still won’t have the whole picture). There is no scientific evidence that we can ever stop a virus like this through any means other than herd immunity. A vaccine could potentially help get to herd immunity faster but it is not guaranteed that we can actually develop one at all (look at the failure rates for seasonal flu vaccines).
It is not a problem for me if people keep meeting in groups and even in large numbers (and you can’t stop them as both sides are doing it!). By the way, I absolutely do not care what the international press thinks, in fact I am inclined to believe that if they think America is taking the wrong approach then we are on the right track.
Herd immunity without mass vaccination is a fantasy. That is like saying Black Death achieved herd immunity for the population of Europe. This concept of which you and others speak is magical thinking cloaking in scientized language. Enough already. It has cause the suffering and death of too many already. And this new virus does not behave like the flu. It is explosive in the way that it spreads in concentrated loads in crowds and unventilated spaces and then overwhelms hospitals and clinics. Simple precautions such as making, distancing, hand-washing, and limiting crowds, and reducing the number of people in spaces that are not well-ventilated can slow the transmission rate down. These precautions are beneficial such that even if people do catch the virus, they are not afflicted with a high viral load of it, making survivability more likely.
That article is a perfect example of “Torture numbers long enough and they will admit to anything.”
It conveniently leaves out the countries that started spiking after May 10. They justified it by calling the countries they selected “peers”, by finding a commonality between them. It also gives no mention to the size of these countries vs. the US. The northeast part of the country, which is bigger than Italy, spiked in March/April and it has followed Italy’s coronavirus pattern. The part further south spiked later, in July/August, along with several other countries. That article is meaningless.
The new thing in this country now is to put ourselves down and believe we are the laughingstock of the world. Well, anyone who laughs at people dying is really a nitwit, so why give it a second thought?
Seems weve plateued, which is bad. Need those hospitalizations to keep going down or we’ll never get back to normal.
Middle class private business will get back to normal. The professional gov’t employees and pajama crowd of private employers/employees who can afford to work from home, may never return. Fine. I drive the roads of Orlando every day. Somebody is doing something b/c the roads are very busy. Maybe they’re just driving to drug store to replenish their mask supply, but I think it looks like businesses are operating.
Wearing masks everywhere, takeout, limited capacity, canceles events is not normal.
Checking in 6 months and a day since my first post in this thread. There was a time when people could agree that running on wet slippery concrete by a swimming pool was a bad idea. Democrats and Republicans and Libertarians and Socialists. People who loved the President [Ike] and people who hated the President. When info came on a TV network about running on wet concrete by a swimming pool – the solution always seemed the same: “Don’t do it!”
Actually, many of us had the experience of observing someone running on wet concrete by a swimming pool – and the frequent results. Have a great day and good luck!
This post provides an interesting 6 month narrative of responses and arguments. However, none are very persuasive about anything! And I know as little about virus response methodology and expected results as I did 6 months ago.
More fun with numbers…
Of the 14 states now experiencing the highest Covid cases…9 of them do not have statewide mask mandates.
The wearing of face masks is a proven deterrent to spreading the virus. But ONLY if everyone does it. A mask does not protect you. It protects everyone else around you. That is why states who understand this have mandated them. That is why municipalities that understand this have mandated it despite opposing governors.
So when people decide that they don’t need to wear a mask they are really deciding the destiny of all of the people around them. Rather selfish I think.
That is why you see the numbers go down when these mandates are followed.
Miami-Dade county was the epicenter of Covid in FL with over 172,000 cases.
On July 29th Miami-Dade hit its highest case rate of 5,564 per day. In response to this, the mayor imposed a mask mandate in mid July. By August 17 cases dropped to 713 per day. By Sept 6th cases per day dropped to 345 per day and has stayed that low through Oct 7.
Coincidence?
https://usafacts.org/visualizations/coronavirus-covid-19-spread-map/state/florida/county/miami-dade-county
Bunch of BS, case numbers are totally dependent upon amount of testing, period. The virus has already spread far and wide all over the Country, there is no hiding from it, either with a mask or under your bed. Broward County has had a mask mandate since April 10, yet, the cases and hospitalizations spiked in July/Aug and now in Sept/Oct have come down drastically. Did anything change? Yeah, we opened up more and went to Phase 2 and now Phase 3!. It’s called herd immunity and T-cells which is certainly the case in densely populated Miami-Dade, where Mom/Dad/Uncle/Aunt/Cousins/Friends, all live together in the same 2000 sq ft house.
Cases are supposedly surging across the Country, that’s what you’ll hear lately, but of course the lamestream media conveniently leaves out that we’ve performed over 1M tests per day on multiple days in the past week – it was previously 800K-900K per day. Guess what, if the positivity rate stays the same, which it has at 5%, doing more tests means more cases. DUH!
Hospitalizations are WAY down from their peak, and deaths/day, is now hovering around 700/day – which is still questionable given only 6% are actually dying FROM COVID-19. Joe Biden famously said if we wore masks for the last 3 months of 2020 we could save 200K lives. Great math Sleepy Joe. Even if 1000/day were dying, which they are not, that would be 90K total more deaths by end of 2020. Hard to save 200K lives with masks when only 90K, worst case, are dying to begin with. What a fear mongering idiot. When you have nothing to run on, you just make stuff up to scare people.
I appreciate the lengthy and thorough explanation of your opinion. Unfortunately your snarky use of the phrase “guess what?”, completely compromises the accuracy and credibility of everything you said. There’s too much guess work going in as it is. We certainly don’t need to be encouraging people to indulge in more.
The models are quite clear. I would suggest you view the IHME models at this page:
https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america?view=total-deaths&tab=trend
before touting falsehoods, IHME model actually, has UNDERESTIMATED in many parts of the country in the past 9 months. Some of those underestimations were due to the fact that some states refused to put in mask mandates. Also see this Kansas study:
Kansas study: https://ipsr.ku.edu/covid19/images/MaskMandateUpdate.pdf
The falsehood that “hospitalizations and deaths are WAY down” is based on these simple facts (follow the logic):
At the beginning of the pandemic, the only people that qualified for COVID tests were the seriously ill, e.g. seeking admission into hospital, or hospitalized.
Now, with more widespread testing, there are many more “low risk” groups (younger, for example) being tested.
Do the math, as an example:
In an example day in Mar 2020, 100 people short of breath seeking hospitalization get tested. 100 are tested. In this example, 75 are COVID-positive. (100% were hospitalized).
In Sept 2020, after schools open, and contact tracing dictates that classmates, teachers, other staff are tested, after coming in contact with a COVID-positive student.
So in this example, 100 people are tested on a particular day in Sept 2020.
Of those 100, only 10 were seeking hospitalization care due to shortness of breath, etc. Of those 10, 6 are COVID-positive.
The remaining 90 were simply getting tests because of contact tracing. Of those, let’s say that 20 were COVID-positive.
So in this September example, total 26 are positive, but only 6 of them were hospitalized. So now in Sept, only 6% tested were hospitalized, and 23% of all COVID-positive tests were hospitalized (6 people / 26 total COVID-positive).
Comparing % hospitalizations (and deaths) of COVID-positive individuals between March (100% hospitalized) and now (23% hospitalized) is blatant DATA MANIPULATION.
It is not due to “improved therapeutics,” which is what current administration is touting as the reason for such better improved death/hospitalization rates.
Current “therapeutics” are extremely expensive and not available to most of us “po folks” and certainly, we would not have access to the early in disease progress hospital admission plus triple-pronged approach to attack the disease (dexamethasone+MAb+remdesivir).
The typical person would not be hospitalized that early in the disease progression and certainly could not afford (even if they got special access to MAb treatment).
Here are more details on the treatment which we as tax payers provided to the person who wants us all to go out and get COVID and not let it dominate our lives:
Experts said Trump’s helicopter rides to and from the hospital, diagnostic testing and imaging, experimental prescription drugs, a private suite, round-the-clock care, and additional personal protective equipment required for outings would cost at least hundreds of thousands, and perhaps millions, of dollars.
“I would not be surprised if it were to exceed $1m,” said Dr Bruce Y Lee, a professor at the City University of New York School of Public Health, whose recent work has estimated how much a course of Covid-19 treatment would cost an average American.
“The majority of Americans don’t have the best treatments, whatever he said, because it’s about access,” said Lee. “The care that he received is available only to a very small minority of Americans.”
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/oct/08/trump-covid-treatment-health-insurance
Last, comparison of COVID death rates, from the beginning of the pandemic, summarized at this page:
https://www.cdc.gov/library/covid19/102320_covidupdate.html
(about halfway down the page, COVID deaths per 100,000)
Adapted from Bilinski et al. COVID-19 Mortality in the US Compared with that of other countries. Data on COVID-19 deaths from February 13 to September 19, 2020 (n?=?198,589 US deaths). All mortality rates are statistically significantly different from the corresponding US mortality rates (p?<0.001).
If you would like some basic information on what p-values and Confidence Intervals (CI) are, see these pages:
https://www.khanacademy.org/math/ap-statistics/tests-significance-ap/idea-significance-tests/a/p-value-conclusions
https://www.khanacademy.org/math/statistics-probability/confidence-intervals-one-sample
Hawaii spiked in cases after they implemented an outdoor mask mandate. Coincidence?
BK, good point, and looking at Hawaii’s current Travel Requirements, besides the ridiculous mask nonsense, they are still locked down tighter than a drum for travel from the Mainland.
“Beginning October 15, 2020, a pre-travel testing option will allow travelers an alternative to Hawaii’s 14-day quarantine”
So they are still quarantining everyone that lands for 14 days, and you know it’s easier to enforce that considering everyone has to enter via plane right now. Can’t blame those nasty non mask-wearing tourists.
Sorry Gary. The wearing of masks is not a “proven deterrent” to the spread of covid. So far we only have anecdotal inference; correlation does not imply causation. There isn’t a single evidence-based study proving the efficacy of masks (although one large study is underway in Denmark). This is not to say that the wearing of masks is a bad idea, or that the wearing of masks won’t eventually prove to be useful. But we should be precise when utilizing scientific language. And yes, I’m a physician.
Glenn,
No, I am not a physician.
However, on July 14 the CDC did say,
“We are not defenseless against COVID-19,” said CDC Director Dr. Robert R. Redfield. “Cloth face coverings are one of the most powerful weapons we have to slow and stop the spread of the virus – particularly when used universally within a community setting. All Americans have a responsibility to protect themselves, their families, and their communities.”
I consider “slow and stop” as a phrase that means “deterrent”
Is your position is that you don’t trust the CDC?
My post was in regards to masks. I feel it’s counterproductive to criticize the governmental agencies at this point. But yes they have made some mistakes. My point was that the wearing of masks has turned into a religion and my fear is that the public has been led to believe that if you’re wearing a mask it’s ok to ignore other more proven methods of deterrence.
I don’t think that the public is in any danger of being misled “to believe that if you’re wearing a mask it’s ok to ignore other more proven methods of deterrence.”
The fundamental issue on this website seems to be a disbelief that masks help at all OR that yes they do, but I don’t need to wear one because its my right not to.
If you know some other very easy to do method to stop the spread that people will adopt without hesitancy PLEASE share it.
Because the path we are on now will get us nowhere.
Eventually, everyone will catch the China Bio-Weapon virus (take-19) It’s simply a matter of time and yes; “science”. The good news is… about 99.5% of us will pull through. The others will fall victim to their comorbidity conditions exasperated by the ChiRona.
Wearing a mask to protect yourself against a viral infection, is like wearing a t-shirt to protect yourself against a bullet. Wear one if it makes you feel better about yourself, but don’t expect miracles and stop pretending it matters.
… carry on… oh, and wash your hands often.
Let’s take your points one by one.
“China bio-weapon”: COVID-19 was not man-made. Furthermore, the strain that is infecting the US evolved in Italy, and came over Europe. This is why Trump’s policy to limit some (but not even most) travel from China was ineffective.
“Good news… 99.5% will pull through”. We have a population of 300+ million people. 0.5% of that is 1.5 million Americans who don’t “pull through”. That’s certain not “Good News” by any reasonable definition. And, many of those who “pulled through” will suffer long term health and cognitive impairments.
The primary reason to wear a mask is not to protect yourself from the virus, it’s to protect other people from you in case you have it and don’t realize it. This is particularly important with COVID-19 because people who have it are most contagious *before* they show any symptoms.
But hey, you got the washing your hands often part right. So you’ve got that going for you.
Reports have come out saying covid-19 is man made. So until we know with absolute certainty you can’t really make a blanket statement that it isn’t.
A mask does protect the wearer. When I was hospitalized the medical staff didn’t wear a mask. When it was known I was contagious with the flu they then wore a mask, not asking me to wear one. So that argument is false that it doesn’t protect the wearer. I believe it was not pushed at first due to a mask shortage.
Please explain why South Korea does so well if it is not the masks, that everyone wears as normal, that are not making the difference? Remember we got the first case of Covid on the same day as them……
Mike,
Because most of the Asian countries have some “memory” immunity built up from all the viruses they’ve dealt with over the years. Malaria, Dengue fever, Typhoid, H1NI, etc. Lots of cases when they test of course, but mortality rate is much lower – reference India. Japan only tests when someone is actually sick enough to go to the hospital – similar to why New York is not showing nearly as many cases as they’ve actually had.
It also doesn’t hurt that most of the people over there are not morbidly obese with diabetes and hypertension issues.
This virus is teaching Americans a valuable lesson, that you need to eat better, exercise regularly, and see a Doctor BEFORE you are very sick,
My friend, you need to learn a bit more about the biochemistry/biology involved in human immunity. See this page, basic immuno lesson:
https://www.khanacademy.org/science/high-school-biology/hs-human-body-systems/hs-the-immune-system/a/hs-the-immune-system-review
Immunity is achieved by highly specific protein-protein interactions (antibody-antigen). The proteins on the outside of the malarian plasmodium parasite (not a virus) are nothing like the spike proteins on the outside of the SARS-CoV-2 virus (the virus that causes COVID19).
Dengue virus is in a totally different family of viruses than SARS-CoV-2, in the Flaviviridae; genus Flavivirus.
Even SARS disease virus (a coronavirus) is significantly different in its spike protein amino acid sequence, that antibodies developed against SARS will not interact with SARS-CoV-2 antigens:
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanmic/article/PIIS2666-5247(20)30098-7/fulltext
Specifically, the argument that Asian countries are doing so much better (per capita) than US is that they have been exposed to similar viruses has been disproven in one of the most definitive studies at the link above. A few details:
“a seropositive rate of 2·73% (53 of 1938 serum samples) in SARS-CoV-2 enzyme immunoassays”
and
“There are seven types of coronaviruses that naturally infect humans. SARS-CoV-2, severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS-CoV), and Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) can cause severe acute respiratory illnesses. By contrast, the four endemic genotypes, including 229E, NL63, OC43 and HKU1, usually only cause mild upper respiratory tract infections, and thus can be classified as low-pathogenic human coronaviruses. In total, there have been just over 10?000 cases of SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV. Because of their genetic relation with SARS-CoV-2 (appendix), the generation of cross-reactive antibodies is not surprising. However, as the population exposed to these two coronaviruses was very small and the outbreaks occurred some years ago, their effect on the global COVID-19 pandemic would be minimal.”
Do you tell the doctor that he doesn’t need a mask before operating on you?
I think the pushback on mask-wearing is coming from people getting sick of the media fear-mongering. I believe the media has gotten so bad in this country, it’s sickening.
I don’t watch ANY American TV anymore except for football when my husband has it on. After Sunday’s game I didn’t turn it off quick enough and caught the first couple of minutes of 60 minutes. How low that show has sunk! It used to be a favorite, but after 2 minutes I was disgusted by the partisan nonsense and ridiculous spin. And of course they just won’t stop with coronavirus. Yes, it’s very contagious, yes, it will be very harmful to some. Enough already, it’s not the only game in town and there are plenty other deadly illnesses. So many are living in fear of this virus that odds are will not be that harmful to them. Yes, we all know it will be harmful to some and no one is saying too bad for them.
I have a friend whose son was just diagnosed with stage 4 lung cancer at 28 years old. You know how he feels about constantly hearing about this virus that does no harm to most people while his son is battling a disease that is devastating for everyone who gets it? This whole thing is just plain sickening on so many levels. People blaming it on Trump because they hate him, people self-righteously judging people on mask-wearing (and yes, most of them are hypocrites, from my experience), people afraid to leave their house.
I’d take my chances with this virus any day over listening to all the talk about it. I’m getting old now. There are worse things older folk have to worry about, like heart issues, Alzheimer’s, stroke. Eff this virus, I’m sick of hearing about it. Everyone I know who got it, it was a big, fat nothing. *knock on wood*
Death rates per age group:
Age group All Deaths involving COVID-19 Deaths from All Causes
45–54 years 11,093 130,088
55–64 years 26,525 297,499
65–74 years 45,015 450,532
75–84 years 55,089 548,255
https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6942e2.htm
—
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-020-73777-8
From January 26, 2020, through October 3, 2020, an estimated 299,028 more persons than expected have died in the United States.** Excess deaths reached their highest points to date during the weeks ending April 11 (40.4% excess) and August 8, 2020 (23.5% excess) (Figure 1). Two thirds of excess deaths during the analysis period (66.2%; 198,081) were attributed to COVID-19 and the remaining third to other causes†† (Figure 1).
Although more excess deaths have occurred among older age groups, relative to past years, adults aged 25–44 years have experienced the largest average percentage increase in the number of deaths from all causes from late January through October 3, 2020. The age distribution of COVID-19 deaths shifted toward younger age groups from May through August (9); however, these disproportionate increases might also be related to underlying trends in other causes of death. Future analyses might shed light on the extent to which increases among younger age groups are driven by COVID-19 or by other causes of death.
The findings in this report are subject to at least five limitations. First, the weighting of provisional NVSS mortality data might not fully account for reporting lags, particularly in recent weeks. Estimated numbers of deaths in the most recent weeks are likely underestimated and will increase as more data become available. Second, there is uncertainty associated with the models used to generate the expected numbers of deaths in a given week. A range of values for excess death estimates is provided elsewhere (7), but these ranges might not reflect all of the sources of uncertainty, such as the completeness of provisional data. Third, different methods or models for estimating the expected numbers of deaths might lead to different results. Estimates of the number or percentage of deaths above average levels by race/ethnicity and age reported here might not sum to the total numbers of excess deaths reported elsewhere, which might have been estimated using different methodologies. Fourth, using the average numbers of deaths from past years might underestimate the total expected numbers because of population growth or aging, or because of increasing trends in certain causes such as drug overdose mortality. Finally, estimates of excess deaths attributed to COVID-19 might underestimate the actual number directly attributable to COVID-19, because deaths from other causes might represent misclassified COVID-19–related deaths or deaths indirectly caused by the pandemic. Specifically, deaths from circulatory diseases, Alzheimer disease and dementia, and respiratory diseases have increased in 2020 relative to past years (7), and it is unclear to what extent these represent misclassified COVID-19 deaths or deaths indirectly related to the pandemic (e.g., because of disruptions in health care access or utilization).
—
Article
Open Access
Published: 06 October 2020
The age distribution of mortality from novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) suggests no large difference of susceptibility by age
We estimated the parameter which describes the age-dependency of susceptibility by fitting the model to reported data, including the effect of change in contact patterns during the epidemics of COVID-19, and the fraction of symptomatic infections. Our study revealed that if the mortality rate or the fraction of symptomatic infections among all COVID-19 cases does not depend on age, then unrealistically different age-dependencies of susceptibilities against COVID-19 infections between Italy, Japan, and Spain are required to explain the similar age distribution of mortality but different basic reproduction numbers (R0). Variation of susceptibility by age itself cannot explain the robust age distribution in mortality by COVID-19 infections in those three countries, however it does suggest that the age-dependencies of (i) the mortality rate and (ii) the fraction of symptomatic infections among all COVID-19 cases determine the age distribution of mortality by COVID-19.
In conclusion, the contribution of age-dependency to susceptibility is difficult to use to explain the robust age distribution in mortalities by COVID-19, and it suggests that the age-dependencies of the mortality rate and the fraction of symptomatic infections among all COVID-19 cases determine the age distribution in mortality from COVID-19. Further investigations regarding age-dependency on the fraction of infections becoming symptomatic is required to understand the mechanism behind the mortality by COVID-19 infections.
No, actually 80% of us will not. Why? How? Unclear. But most don’t even get it, even when exposed
I’ve learned from traveling for the last two months in Montana, Idaho, Utah, Massachusetts, New Hampshire that those who wear a mask of fear of getting Covid will gladly take it off around me (not wearing one) because I am a friendly gal who looks very organized and clean, will get a test because their insurance (your tax dollars) will pay for it (not due to symptoms/around anyone who has), will take it off on a plane to eat snacks provided by the carrier – screw Covid it’s snack time! We wear them in restaurants to order the food but take them off to eat…hahaha…it’s all counter-productive if you truly are scared of getting it. Point being – Covid is like religion. People obey the parts which work best for them and make excuses for the parts which don’t. If you’re scared – stay home and stop spreading your hypocrisy!
You’ve realized—it’s all fear theatre, not scientific strategies.
Well, the self-proclaimed leader of “no masks” now has Covid and is now in the hospital.
While we will all pray for him to live, my only hope is that he will change his belief (as evidenced by EVERYONE around him NOW wearing a mask as he was taken to the hospital) and stop the idiotic rhetoric that wearing a mask is not patriotic.
He bears a huge responsibility in creating this situation. A true leader would now suck it up, admit his mistake, and unite us in protecting each other.
I thought he said wearing a mask IS patriotic, months ago.
Yes, he did say that, and he also knows that wearing a mask should be a choice, not a mandate in a Country founded on freedoms. Just like people have the choice to eat or drink whatever they want, never exercise, never see a Doctor until they are sick, and drive recklessly. Yeah, and I’m pretty sure there are plenty of positive cases for people who are very diligent about wearing masks. California and Illinois have been very strict about it from the beginning, yet both are still leading the way in new cases, kinda like Broward County was until herd immunity took hold.
Herd Immunity requires at minimum 50% of a population have a virus. Broward County currently has an est 80,000 cases and a population est of 1.9 million. That’s not herd immunity.
Not true, by a long shot. Read up on what’s already happened in major cities across the globe with antibody studies. More like 20-25% pending the age of the people and activity level. Case numbers are only being reported for the folks who’ve been tested, not the millions who never got tested like in NYC during the peak.
Don’t forget everyday they told us it’s at least ten times the amount of people who have positive results. Every single news cast said today’s total is 3,000 (as an example) but really is at least ten times that. So by your own totals that would put it at 800,000 positive cases at least. Unless the media was lying just trying to makes things look worse. So herd immunity may actually be closer than you realize.
People may have the CHOICE to drive recklessly (as you wrote), but they do not have a legal RIGHT to that behavior. You have the choice to drink Clorox too if you like, but that says nothing about the “rightness” of your choice for Society IF others must pay for your hospitalization. There are laws to protect the public against reckless behavior that can create potential harm to the public. You may be ABLE to drink and drive and feel that is your Choice, but in a country with a Rule of Law, irresponsible choices that creates harm to others is NOT a Right. In order to have Law and Order, you must first have Law.
Your Choice to infect me does not override my Right not to be infected by you.
Unfortunately, it is insane to expect every human being to do the right thing. The mask-wearing debate is just another cause of divisiveness during these turbulent times. If I were very worried about contracting this virus, I would stay home. I certainly wouldn’t go out and put my life in the hands of every screwball walking the streets. (present company excluded, of course). Finding someone to blame wouldn’t give me any solace.
Personally, I believe it needs to run its course.
New York and New Jersey have gone out of their minds. I have relatives up there that are literally spouting the most nonsensical things I have ever heard them say. The latest: Trump is much sicker than they are telling us, no one is in charge and as such we are in danger of a military strike since we are just sitting ducks here, especially considering how the whole world knows we are all idiots.
I don’t think I can take another 4 years of this. 🙂
I see, no mention about people making bad choices with their diet and lack of exercise, it becomes my problem to protect them, as well as my own family. Sound like a lawyer waiting to sue someone because you got sick. Feel the same way about the flu and every other pathogen that’s afflicted the globe from the beginning of time? Did they not kill enough in their hey day to wear masks then? Face it, we’re only talking about masks now because it’s an election year, Joe Biden still has no other plan to combat the virus other than masks that he knows he can’t mandate, and 46% of America has TDS.
Then stay at home or wear your fool proof mask.
Thank you so much. I’m so sick of the FORCED MANDATES and people so blatently UNEDUCATED that they think A mandate is A LAW. Hello????? Something has to go thru do process to be put on a docate to be voted for becoming A law in which thier has NOT BEEN.
Yes Terry – it is every American’s right to drive drunk too. It’s a free country – and they’re only endangering themselves – just like not wearing a mask. That makes perfect sense.
Terry, as with every other time you have posted, you are once again a font of misinformation. while it is true freedom, from taxation without representation primarily, is a founding principle of this nation. What you believe is freedom, “guberment aint tellin’ me what to do”, is anarchy. Freedom in the USA is governed by uncountable federal, state, local and municipal codes. They are generally not intrusive on basic freedoms that our society as a whole, and more specifically the wealthy, have consensus on. The “government” actually does in some cases require people to have medical examination or treatment or frequent drug testing for various jobs and professions, the require physicals participation in sports, and they can quarantine you or require masks among a host of other requirements during a declared epidemic.
to address your other examples, yes the government can regulate what you eat and drink (and they do), special taxes on soft drinks, banning import of foods, regulate foods out of existence. some examples https://www.eatthis.com/banned-foods-in-america/
driving recklessly, we”ll call that a non example.
broward does not have herd immunity, if anyone did it would be some new york city locales, but its not the case their either for 2 reasons minimum 60% likely higher previous infections a
AND because reinfections already documented.
just fyi- florida has the LOWEST per capita testing in the country, less than 1 per thousand residents, with a positivity over 10% (despite the statistical magic FDOH uses to reach their below 5% number)
Scott, I could easily argue that the way New York and some of these hardest hit States in the NE are not testing correctly either. Florida is including positive antigen tests, they are not. So while we can argue whether that should be included or not, because having antibodies is actually a good thing, for sure New York would have been reporting much higher than 1% positivity because we all know how many people already had the virus there – NJ, Conn, and Mass as well. Florida is including every negative test but not every positive test. Again, debatable, but from a controlling the spread perspective does it really help to report every positive test for the same person? Thank you for letting me know you’re still positive 10 times? Reporting all negatives seems to be more logical, because it indicates less infections.
Per the WHO, 10% of the World population has had this thing, and they made this point because they were trying to show that 90% of the World is still vulnerable. Fine. But you are also showing that the actual case mortality rate is 1M dead over 760M infected, which amounts to a .13% (that’s point 13) case mortality rate. And guess what, hospitalizations and deaths are decreasing due to better treatments and younger, healthy people getting infected – but not sick.
For the 1000th time, many scientists have disputed that you need 60-70% infection rates to achieve some sort of herd immunity.
Sweden must be laughing their collective a$$es off at Europe and the rest of the World. Their decision not to lockdown, not close schools, and not to mandate masks, and trust their people to be adults, is looking smarter by the day. But then again, they are not in an election year
First of all herd immunity only works with the body is showing immunity from a virus. So far not one patient has had any long term immunity. In fact people are getting it again. Also herd immunity, with our population would kill3 to 6 million Americans. This is not like any other virus . The kicker is that long term heart & lung damage is showing up in adults & even children that never had symptoms! So, we should try to avoid catching it & our children should be protected! Masks, social distancing. We don’t have enough testing or contact tracing because our Gov wants to keep numbers down! Masks are not a political statement! That is the reason we are doing do much worse than other countries because people are told they have a right. All because some people think it makes you look weak. Covid makes you look weak too! Broward county has not achieved herd immunity! Stop listening to Dr atlas! He is a radiologist! No experience at all! In fact I’m starting a class action for the bad medical advice that has killed loved ones.
Check CDC. Not one single documented case of reinfection in first 90 days after Positive and a single case of some sketchy traveler from China who allegedly got reinfected after having it early on. There are plenty of experts who think that “case” is bogus based on the information put out. So 0 reinfections. stop watching CNN and do your own research. The misinformation in these posts is frightening… since people want to cite CDC and misstate CDC. Read every published, double blind, peer reviewed reviewed study (Fauci claims only those count) – masks do not work to stop influenza virus. These all occurred over last 15+ years BEFORE Covid19 (not panic research?) with no outlier research in support masks doing any good. Like Fauci said (lied I guess) until he didn’t. Even WHO says masks have so little impact. So does CDC in July and Sept:
” In our systematic review, we identified 10 RCTs that reported estimates of the effectiveness of face masks in reducing laboratory-confirmed influenza virus infections in the community from literature published during 1946–July 27, 2018. In pooled analysis, we found no significant reduction in influenza transmission with the use of face masks (RR 0.78, 95% CI 0.51–1.20; I2 = 30%, p = 0.25).
”
A piece is crap paper mask from China stands between you and a deadly virus? Feeling lucky? people fumble and touch their masks making them an infection source says CDC too.
Regarding BK’s comments. It is correct that randomized double blind studies with a control are the gold standard but many have serious flaws. You can’t blind wearing or not wearing a mask. Compliance, adequate followup, differences in subjects exposure between populations and differences in other behaviors that affect risk but most importantly an insufficient sample size can influence outcomes. An underpowered study has a high probability of failing to identify a difference. The very wide confidence interval in the report you posted is indicative of underpowered studies. It is correct that high quality evidence proving masks are effective is lacking. However WHO, the CDC and the vast majority of infectious disease specialists urge the use of masks because the bulk of evidence indicates that they have a very high probability of reducing risk.However they are not totally protective. Equally important are distancing, frequent hand washing and avoiding indoor spaces with large numbers of people for prolonged periods of time. The CDC has removed the article you refer to from its website.
This is not true. Harvard just released a study that shows getting infected again is very unlikely. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/22/health/covid-antibodies-herd-immunity.html
Broward County does not have herd immunity. To date, there is no place on this planet that has herd immunity. Please refer to CDC and Dr. Anthony Fauci’s information on herd immunity. Broward County lowered their Covid numbers by adhering to protocol: masks, social distancing, staying home, washing hands frequently. According to the CDC and NIH, the two top immunological organizations in the world, masks are the single-most important way to stop the virus. When people exercise their ‘freedom’ to not wear a mask, they are depriving others of their freedom to stay alive, stay healthy, keep their job, their house, their car, their life. Any freedom we have in the U.S. is to be exercised responsibly. Unless non-mask wearers build a Mask-free Pale of Settlement and stay within its walls, their ‘freedom’ to not abide by CDC guidelines ends where the safety and life of others begins. WE are not ‘free’ to run a red light at an intersection because it may harm or maim others. We are not ‘free’ to drive without a seatbelt, or drunk, or while texting, because it may harm others. It’s exactly the same. We are not ‘free’ to go maskless because it may harm others. Americans are not, historically, a nation of selfish narcissists. This is a recent disease infecting the nation along with Covid-19. It’s called irresponsible, selfish self-centeredness,
ken,
july 22 is not just released and to be clear, there is at least one genetically documented case of reinfection in nevada. there are several other cases that have been reported but because of lack of retention of initial tests samples, not as clearly verified. but they tested positive months after original confirmed illness. genetic test proves a later and earlier strain infection.
Herd immunity requires 50-90% of a population to be immune depending on its infectivity. Covid is highly infectious and will be closer to and probably higher than the 70% average. Furthermore it is not clear how long immunity lasts. Documented cases of second infection are being seen with a mutated virus, the reason we have frequent colds and influenza returns every year. We need a new influenza vaccine combo because of the ability of some virus’s to adapt by mutating. Those who suggest herd immunity from spontaneous infection are using magical thinking.
He said nothing like that. Trump loves stupid people he said that once.
There is no “cure” and there never will be. Case in point are all the ineffectual influenza vaccines that year over year miss the mark and result in tens of thousands of deaths. We have never “cured” a novel virus and the outlook on this one is equally as slim. All the draconian actions including masks are only aimed at “slowing” the spread. Just by using the term “slowing” the “experts know there is no way to stop it. We all need to get on board that this thing is here to stay and we need to learn to live with it as humans throughout history have done. The illegal attempts to curtail freedom are simply power grabs by the ones who peddle fear.
Governor DeSantis please address these unconstitutional counties like Hillsborough, Pinellas, Dade, etc that openly brag about continuing to cite citizens awaiting the expiration of the suspended fines so that they can screw it populous at a later date. Just look at St Petersburg, FL mayor Rick Kriseman and trusty side kick Kevin King who were caught red-handed fomentingviolence in opposition of your order.
Why does the Florida Dept of Health let moronic politicians lead them. When their job is to protect the citizens of this state? It is obvious those employed at the Florida Dept of Health value their jobs more than the lives of the citizens who they are supposed to protect.
So what’s your story now that he’s fine? Everyone is eventually going to catch this virus. We can’t live our lives in a cave to avoid a freaking virus. It’s not the first one we’ve ever encountered but it is the first one that was used as a political weapon.
Well, based on his last tweets, any behavior or messaging about protecting each other with masks and social distancing ain’t gonna happen. Be safe out there.
And now that his last tweet states that its just like the flu, those that listen to him will believe it. I am saying prayers for all of my friends and family who wear masks but will be endangered by people who listen to his false claims (some have died) . These people who protect others by wearing masks will further withdraw their presence and money from the part of the economy that needs it most.
If there was national leadership to actually validate how important masks are to protect each other and people believed it and practiced it, we could actually have safe gatherings, safe restaurants, and safe schools without hiding and without shutting down.
Masks work, social distancing works. It would go a tremendous way to getting Covid under control while we find a vaccine. Yet, he will NEVER make that a national message. It sounds weak, its unpatriotic, and it denies your civil liberties.
His father never endured weakness in any of his sons. And its a curse that he pays for every day. Except now, WE are paying for it with our lives.
Fauci says the President listens and has not sent out contrary guidance. God Fauci is the Gold Standard. Harris said the other night she would take the vaccine if Fauci said Okay, but not Trump. So stop your TDS meltdown… If you figured out that Trump is saying and doing the “wrong thing” then why can’t everyone else? BTW, was Sweden wrong? Those with TDS have it in their DNA! 48% have TDS so you should hope Trump does the opposite of what you claim is “right” because you and your TDS disciples will always do the opposite of Trump or, in your world, the “right” thing. Don’t over complicate this.
Sweden has less than 200 new cases per day and they did absolutely nothing to prevent the virus. This thing just needs to run it’s course. When you blame Trump for a random virus, you obviously have nothing else to complain about. MAGA!
Not true, Sweden understood that the virus spread in crowds and unventilated areas. The country imposed all kinds of limitations on mass gatherings.
@Gary Spain enforces masks with citations even outdoors and currently has more cases per capita than US. He said they make sense in high risk situations. They believed their White House testing regime made those gatherings lower risk. They probably did, but if you are meeting with that many different people you are bound to transfer contagious genetic material. Always could do more but there is then also always a cost.
Unfortunately we do not have a true leader. We have babies in the whitehouse
I don’t remember him saying it was unpatriotic to wear a mask but we should all just use the good common sense most of us were born with and not run around in a panic which is what I believe the President was attempting to project. Stay safe and healthy.
Is there any data on the ages of those hospitalized? Of the 2100 hospitalized today there may be many long term cases that have been there for weeks, which means the hospitalization number will go down much less rapidly on its way to zero.
I agree. Could simply add a “serious” or “ventilated” variable to the chart too. “Serious” could be hospitalized more than 1 or 2 weeks. Not matter how you analyze it, Florida has obviously gone way down.
Regarding deaths, it depends on what you mean by “”way down” and down from when.
Little solace here.
Exactly! People seem to think that cases are down and you’re in the clear — I think your deaths have maintained a pretty steady level. You’re 5th in the nation in deaths. In no way is that good news.
Florida had a big backlog of “probable” COVID-19 deaths to process, a lot in Miami-Dade, so that is the why the death numbers still look high, except on weekends of course. As everyone knows, unlike the rest of the world, in the US there is a financial and political benefit to putting COVID-19 on the death certificate as a contributor – look up Medicare and COVID-19 reimbursement. Good news is if you drill into the actual date of death, you will the numbers are way down for the past month so I expect the backlog will be cleared soon.
Florida is floating between 12 and 14 in terms of deaths per population, so for the third most populous state, with probably the highest percentage of elderly, we’re doing better than most big states.
#factsvsfear
#herdimmunity
I refer you to the FAU COVID-19 tracking site at:
https://business.fau.edu/covidtracker/data/florida-data/
Does it really matter how long they’ve been in the hospital when the current ratio of COVID-related to everything else is currently 2,095 compared to 41,617? This ratio was 6116/41531on 7/10, so clearly a lot of people are occupying hospital beds throughout the year, but a lot less for COVID-19-related illnesses.
Is the latest goalpost move for going back to normal that we have to have zero people hospitalized for COVID-19?
This virus has taught us that a lot of Americans are not in good shape, don’t eat right, never excuse, and certainly don’t see a Doctor before they are actually sick. Hopefully a wake up call.
Yes, Terry, that’s right, zero people hospitalized with COVID-19 is the goal.
Not a realistic goal with any virus, new ones get introduced, some cooked up in a lab in Communist countries, others from birds and animals. How long as the flu been around, with a flu shot available every year? Goal is to come up with better treatments and minimize deaths. We’ve all learned two valuable lessons, 1.) Americans need to take better care of their health and not rely on others to keep them from getting sick, 2.) locking down caused WAY more collateral damage given we knew who was most vulnerable very early on.
The most interesting stat on that site (to me) is the CFR (case fatality rate). It has dropped dramatically in every age group since April. That would seem to suggest to me that even if you get COVID, the hospitals have very adept at treating the virus. That’s a very important statistic, obviously. At one point, AIDS was statistically a death sentence. Now the death rate is extremely low in comparison and there have even been cases where patients were effective cured. That’s not to say that death is the only important stat, but is certainly the highest.
Thank you Debi!!!
So called “herd immunity” for flu is impossible without vaccinations. Probably impossible for any virus.
It’s not really about herd immunity. It’s about the vectors of the disease burning out.
Gov. DeSantis is now following DJT’rump’s lead – by adjusting Fla’s COVID restrictions to enable a COVID19 Contamination-Level, in Fla., of approx., 60% of our population. Herd Immunity theorizes that when 60% of a given population is contaminated with a pathogen- it will have the epidemic “under-Control.” Collectively speaking – Herd Immunity in the US will require contaminating approx. 200. Million of us, with COVID 19. Using a conservative 3% death- rate – more than 6.Million Americans would die from COVID19. If the “Herd Immunity” process is the government’s choice to deal with the COVID19 epidemic…Then, the Life-Threatening” aspects of this choice should be made clear to all of us. The “Herd Immunity” process …now under-way….has been very discretely kept from the public.
How can you post that drivel? The most important metric that cannot be argued against is the current hospitalizations. Look at that figure. Trending down. New infections, trending down.
You sound like you would be happier in a communist state where you have to be told what to do and how to do it. Wear a mask! Social distance! don’t go to work! etc. etc. etc.
How about exercising a little personal initiative? If you are afraid for your safety, stay inside, wear an n-95 mask, mitigate your risk. Your conspiracy theory about “herd immunity” is also known as people going about their daily lives in a way they choose based on their own risk profile.
Having come from a former communist country, and happy that I escaped, I will advise you to go and take a look. Maybe it suits you. They are always looking for new suckers to subjugate.
But I guess your TDS is so bad that you are too far gone. You connect anything that happens in our society to the guy in the Whitehouse. Get a life. No one controls my success. I prospered under Bush, Obama, Trump and will prosper no matter who is there. Its called hustle. Those that blame their life’s problems on others and believe in doom and gloom conspiracy theories are pathetic.
I really feel sorry for you. Living in the most prosperous place and time in man’s history and all you can see is doom and gloom.
I gotta go. I’m taking my wife and kids out for breakfast, then enjoying the beach, life, and everything else that’s good going on around me.
Your comments are the reason why the United States has the most deaths in the world. The USA is a joke and the whole world knows it.
John page, I love your attitude. I agree, let’s do our own thinking and not be led by the BS that gets repeated over and over. Intelligent people all over the world know that.
Surely the most important metric is deaths? That does not seem to be trending down. I really hope hospitalizations continue downward but worry that moving to phase 3 will reverse that. It would be great if it doesn’t,
Just a question on masks, how do people explain the good performance of the likes of South Korea and other Asian countries where masks are considered the best way to protect yourself and others? The does not compare well….
Its been well publicized that Daily deaths are reflective of a backlog. The daily death toll on this publication is not when people actually died, but rather, when death cert was filed. I.e a death recorded today may actually be of a person who died in july, but only got to be reported today. Please be at least a little educated before you join the adults table at thanksgiving.
“New infections trending down.” Did I read that correctly? Have you been on the Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Tracker this week? You must be looking at the graphs on your computer upside-down. Positivity rates have increased just in the past five days. Florida’s jumped from 11.7 to 12.3 percent. Wisconsin’s rate is 22.9 percent. Nevada, 17.3; Iowa, 20.2. Hospital ICUs in rural areas are maxed out and they are filling up in urban areas, too. I hate to break it to you, but normal colds and flus don’t upset hospital and clinic operations the way this virus does. This is going to be a long winter.
You are mistaken on the 3% death rate. The survival rate is 99.97% and as new cases increase while deaths decrease the survival rate will increase.
Did you not listen to the 2 hour press conference Gov. Desantis did the world renowned experts which concluded that our society is clearly entering into herd immunity?
A common misconception amongst the Left is that new cases equals deaths. The data clearly shows that this is not correct. And before somebody accuses me of not caring about people, I am being oppressed with a mask mandate by an out of control county administrator here in Pasco County named Dan Biles. There needs to be rational balance in how the government infringes upon people’s personal space and personal choices. Not to mention the harmful effects of wearing face coverings from oxygen deprivation and CO2 poisoning. These are very real effects from wearing masks and no one in the government provides warnings to the general public while at the same time demanding that people wear them. And then of course there’s all the karens out there who harass people who don’t wear masks. They don’t seem to care at all that people like me or harmed by wearing masks.
What someone does to protect themselves is a very personal choice and we are long past the point of simply excepting government dictates from power-hungry bureaucrats!
Stop spreading ignorant fear and get your facts right. Just read the data!
“Stop spreading ignorant fear and get your facts right” It’s interesting that this is the last line of your statement seeing as how you want to make us believe that wearing a mask is somehow harmful to everyone’s health. There is no evidence for this. The easiest way to refute it is to simply look at doctors and nurses who are wearing N95 rated masks for hours on end and have no breathing side effects.
Let me educate you Debi, SURGEONS AND NURSES DO NOT WEAR N95 MASKS – THEY WEAR SURGICAL MASKS.
There is a substantial difference. Specifically, N95 masks are mostly used in manufacturing used to solely to protect the wearer (mostly from dust particulates in the air). The huge check valve on the mask is the dead giveaway. Surgical masks are intended to protect those around the wearer.
N95 masks were developed to deal with tuberculosis , which is a bacteria, which is 1,000 times larger than a virus. Viruses sail through the membrane of both N95 and surgical masks.
Yet another Leftist who is ignorant of the data and basic medical facts on the attack. Ahhh, the arrogance of the young.
And I was only speaking for myself not everyone as falsely claim. I recently had sinuplasty surgery to correct a severely deviated septum which made wearing a mask very difficult to breath. Wearing a mask post surgery is even more difficult due to swelling. I have a legitimate medical exemption from my doctor. However this does not stop you busybody karens from harassing me everywhere I go.
It’s gotten to where I don’t go to the stores hardly at all anymore. Are you happy? Does it please you to know how people like you curtail me freedom? And what about the lost revenue for those businesses? The ripple effect of harm from masks is significant. A Marxist wouldn’t care about these things, what about you?
However, now that you bring it up, wearing masks which are mandated by local governments IS harmful to basically everyone due to hypoxia and/or respiratory acidosis.
After wearing a mask for less than 1 minute and the oxygen content inside the mask falls to 16%. The Federal minimum is 19.5% (the ideal is 20.5%). This is where hypoxemia begins to set in. If you exert yourself or simply wear the mask for a prolonged period of time, hypoxia sets in which can damage organs, reduce one’s immunity and at the very least you will experience fatigue.
CO2 poisoning is just as serious resulting in respiratory acidosis. CO2 regulates the pH balance in your blood. This is when the pH in your blood becomes acidic. The body senses the change and if it is too much you will pass out. The unconsciousness regulates the breathing and brings the pH back to normal.
So Debi, you are wrong you are callous towards people who are in fact harmed by mandatory masks. You may be able to tolerate masks but a LOT of your fellow citizens CANNOT.
You are also wrong about your claim that there is no evidence that masks are harmful. You just have look just a little and you will find it. Dr. Russell Blaylock’s article in Technocracy.com cites several long term studies which prove 3 things:
1) masks are proven to be ineffective in protecting the wearer from viruses.
2) masks cause hypoxia and/or respiratory acidosis to varying degrees in almost everyone who wears a mask for almost any length of time.
3) masks are largely “theatrical comfort” for the wearer or those around the wearer.
Be considerate of others when demanding that someone attach a mask to their face.
This is all baseless rhetoric.
Nothing you said is backed up by science. As Obi Wan Kenobi said “who’s the more foolish the fool
Or the fool who follows him?
Sally T, I love living rent free in your head!? I’ve presented so many facts that you are actually rejecting basic, commonly known, household level, scientific and medical facts.
You’re going to give yourself a ‘roid hyperventilating about this (that gives you respiratory alkalosis, ain’t science fun?)
In true leftist fashion you immediately resort to name calling and ridicule. No data, none of the time. You’re only mad because you know I’m right so you come up with a 2nd grade insult to discourage people from listening to me.
You can’t shout me down Sally. People are listening to me because what I’m saying is indisputable scientific fact AND COMMON KNOWLEDGE.
You might want to duct tape your head now because this will blow your mind. My family has taken zero precautions to avoid COVID-19 since this started back in February. We don’t wear masks, we shake people’s hands and (oh the humanity!) we actually hug people.
All we do is take zinc and quercetin once a day and we have a magic force field around us. Unfortunately it won’t protect us from ignorant people who wear masks while driving alone in their cars or attack us for sharing knowledge but there’s always hope. We simply refuse to participate in your pandemic.
You are free to ruin your life avoiding the bogeyman of COVID-19 but stop trying to ruin mine. I have thoroughly educated myself on this virus and I do my best to educate everyone that I can.
There’s no reason for the vast majority of to live in fear. If someone is high risk then they need to isolate themselves. If you have a suppressed immune system, pulmonary problems, cardiovascular problems, diabetes or other complications of obesity then you need to quarantine yourself because you could die if you get this disease.
But the rest of us which includes more than 99.97% of the population are going to be just fine if we get COVID-19. We can do our civic duty and participate in herd immunity.
We’re going to go and have fun and live our lives in point and laugh at fools who insist upon being terrified by this and try to drag everyone else down with you.
Instead of buying politically fed rhetoric you will find Tranquility in learning what I have learned. Stop ridiculing people like me and just inform your self. I promise you Sally, there’s a lot more happiness in knowledge than there is in the fear that you practice in.
Steven Emm, I use a face shield which does not impede my breathing at all and I have never been stopped from entering any establishment (in a county with widespread mask mandate and usage). This alternative could give you more freedom.
There’s so much here to disagree with I’m not sure where to start…and not to be a jerk but I seriously do not have time to do it.
Suffice to say that doctors and nurses do wear N95 masks for hours on end if they are working with a contagious disease. There are probably other conditions in which they wear them as well, but since I do not pretend to be an expert I’m not sure what those may be. However, no one is asking the public to wear N95 masks…ever. They’re actually not even asking the public to wear surgical masks. They’re asking them to wear cloth masks. There is no evidence masks are harmful to the general public. I know that there are people have been given exemption from this or feel they need exemption from it, so be it. If 98% of people are wearing them it’s all good.
Speaking as a physician, I can tell you that we do wear N95 masks for certain procedures. At on of the hospitals I work for, an example set by hospital governance is “aerosolizing procedures.” An exampe would be giving a patient with COVID, whose lungs are faling, an endotracheal tube. Then I would have to wear an N95 mask fit to my face (we get re-fit every year or if we gain or lose weight). N95s protect me from your disease, but not necessarily you from mine. Here’s the Mayo clinic’s brief education about masks for you: https://www.mayoclinic.org/diseases-conditions/coronavirus/in-depth/coronavirus-mask/art-20485449
If wearing a mask made O2 levels fall, then how do we do surgery for hours on end? The shortest surgery I have participated in was ~2h. My colleagues often do surgeries >12 hours. Somehow, even when wearing masks, we survive.
And a deviated septum? No problem, wear a mask and breath through your mouth. That’s how we survive surgeries when our allergies are acting up.
Also, the death rate in the USA, dividing deaths by cases is ~2.9%. IF we assume only 50% of actual infections get tested (which is reasonable, as ~50% of the infected don’t have symptoms) then the death rate in the USA is ~1.4%. That is not good. ~210 000 dead Americans so far. That’s 3.6 times as many as died in the the Vietnam war. That is not good.
And ignorance like yours is part of the problem. Masks work, period
Problem is youre picking and choosing false data. One that will contribute to deaths. Continue to feel good about your denial for convenience when people die. Probelm with DeSantis is he backed a President who ran a lousy economy pre covid now he needs to help with the distraction.
Keep telling yourself that DegreeD White Guy. Like a good Lefty you attack me but you can’t disprove anything I’m saying.
C’mon lefties, you’re not sending your best. Put a little effort in and do some research and prove me wrong. It should be easy based upon how boisterous you are.
You can’t because your enemy is the facts – not me. But you can’t attack the facts, facts are an immovable object for you. So you try to distract others from the facts which discredit you by attacking me. It’s like a cat with catnip, you are so easy to draw out and manipulate. Ultimately you discredit yourselves meanwhile I successfully expose good people to useful information.
As for people dying, giving high risk people a false sense of safety by telling them that a mask will protect them is what will kill people. But you can’t stop yourself from using the heavy hand of government to force everyone else into your WOKE hellhole of having wear a mask for fear of being fined. Making a few people’s problems into everyone’s problems will not help the few. It weakens all of us.
High risk people need to isolate themselves. For you high risk people out there, pay attention to this. Look at me, feel free to wear a mask but that is not why the government is forcing everyone to wear a mask. The government’s primary purpose is source control.
They say that the mask will keep a healthy person who is infected from infecting someone else. The data about masks nullifies this. Heck, it says right there on the box of every mask sold that “this mask is effective in preventing viral infections.” These Leftist liberals will tell you I’m lying. DON’T TAKE ANYONE’S WORD FOR IT. Just look at the box your mask came in.
Viruses sail right through masks. Go ahead and wear the mask but don’t think you are protected. Again, the mask is for source control. Not to protect the wearer from viruses. Don’t take unnecessary chances. COVID-19 is very contagious and cell division is aggressive. High risk people should wear your masks and hunker down until herd immunity takes over. Let us healthy people get this disease and build herd immunity which will ultimately protect everyone.
Yet another indisputable fact is that all of us are going to contract COVID-19 sooner or later. As individuals we can build immunity over time with repeated small exposures or we can contract the full blown COVID flu. At this point our society has enough people who have immunity so that we are entering herd immunity. Herd immunity IS WHAT PROTECTS THE WEAKEST AMONGST US.
For some bizarre reason you Lefties reject this basic fact. Oh yeah, that’s right! You have Trump Deranged Syndrome. I know politics is sport for you guys but, there really is more to life than Orange Man Bad. Take a lesson from Dave Rubin. Find tranquility in accepting facts which disagree with your political beliefs.
And now we are at the crux of all of this aren’t we. It’s always Orange Man Bad! You’re in such extraordinary, self defeating denial that you can’t recognize that we had the greatest economy in the history of mankind before COVID.
Donald Trump simply took the government out of our way and let the people loose and we built the greatest economy ever. Just like we did under Reagan (you might want to borrow some of SallyT’s duct tape). And we’re going to do it again. Join us! Participate in prosperity instead of kicking rocks out in the parking lot.
I’ll leave you by teasing you with the words “cycle threshold” or CT. Understand how this works with PCR testing and how the CT for most PCR testing should be below 30 cycles but how most positive COVID-19 tests are cycled 40 times (very few are as low as 37 times) resulting in a very high rate of false positives. A New York Times article found as many as 90% of PCR tests are false positive. Imagine feeling healthy and being forced to quarantine for 6 weeks because of false positives. All of that lost income and time with friends. All of the unnecessary arguments after being cooped up for all that time. All for nothing.
You Lefties wonder why we are done listening to your WOKE nonsense? It’s because you’ve overplayed your hand and ripped off the mask revealing your true socialist agenda. Don’t let me stop you, go ahead, attack me. Call me names. Anything but dispute the facts, right?
My work here is done so I’ll leave you to feast upon each other. But for God’s sake, stop fighting facts. Facts don’t care about your feelings.
All the best,
Steve
Correction: EVERY BOX OF MASKS SAYS THAT IT IS NOT EFFECTIVE IN PROTECTING FROM VIRUSES.
The funny part is these idiots ATE IT LIKE THANKSGIVING TURKEY when Fauci BLATENTLY said the masks CANNOT protect you from the Covid stop wearing them. Then turns around with the A lie and says “Oh we only said that so Frontline Drs could have adequate masks!” Really Fauci because Dr.s get thier masks from Safeways and 99 Cents only stores lol get outta here with that garbage we all know they get thier medical equipment from TRUSTED medical supply companies. See the LEFT love the always used tactic of truth first followed by LIES and control. All the rich out there traveling partying doing what they want because they know its BULLSHIT. It’s really sad to me that they couldn’t have just said please wear them if you are feeling sick or gain any sick like conditions. Instead it’s been them playing MIND GAMES with American lives that has lead to people being judgmental PRICKS that use the MASK HYSTERIA to be assholes to people. I live the same way as you. I wash my hands and keep up on the zinc etc and have been in better shape then ever before. Intelligence is not an EVERYBODY thing I guess lol. Bless you and your family and may God bless you and your family.
I may be wrong, but I think Steve’s zinc pills could be making him a little grumpy. Is that a thing? Or it could just be that not everyone agrees with him.
My husband has asthma and diabetes so we don’t have the luxury of flaunting our “freedom” all over town.
As long as the virus is out of control, we can’t spend money on things like travel, entertainment, dining out, etc. We’re stuck at the house. Money that could be going into the economy is going in the bank instead. And to friends who are having trouble paying their light bill because business is bad.
It is what it is. If it’s worth the risk to you to get out there, great. But until everyone feels safe doing so, the economy can’t get going again. And the Governor assuring me that a hospital bed will be available for my husband if he needs one isn’t a great reason to get out there. It’s actually kind of insulting.
I actually think Steven Emm has made some really good arguments and I am sitting here with my popcorn and beer waiting for a response to him beyond ObiWan quotes and an idiotic analysis of our economy prior to the shutdown. Good try though DegreeD White Guy. Now, since your “DegreeD”, offer up some data to rebut Steven’s argument… Guessing I will need to go get more beer before you respond.
Right?! Lol
Thank you! Couldn’t have said it better myself??
80% of the population is immune. We know that from the quarantined cruise boat Diamond Princess. Of the 20% that is not, 50% of that amount is asymptomatic. Of the remaining 50% of the 20%, only .03, or 3% have died. So theoretically the most that would die even if the entire country was infected is around 1 million. But that isn’t going to happen due to improvements in treatment anyway. It’s just a worst case scenario.
I was for strict lockdowns in the beginning. The curve was flattened. It’s been six months now. It is now time for personal responsibility. If you have preexisting conditions, are obese or live with someone under these conditions use your brain and do not put them at risk.
Wow, 3% death rate, thanks for the scientific analysis Don Lemon and Rachel MadCow. Amazing how many liberals, including the Governors of NY, NY, and Conn conveniently leave out how many positive cases they actually had during the peak in Mar/Apr/May. The antibodies studies in the Bronx and other metro areas show that MILLIONS actually had this thing already, but that was when only people sick enough to be hospitalized got tested. This is why their death per case ratio is so much higher for the Northeast States than everyone else. You would think they would want to clarify that considering the Tri-State area accounts for almost 25% of the total deaths yet only 9% of the total US population. This would also drastically reduce the nationwide 3% ratio to less than 1%. Now anything that moves can be tested as many times as they want which is coincidentally why the three most populated States lead in cases – DUH!
Scientists in places like Mumbai, Stockholm, and London have already concluded that due to activity levels of the younger part of the population, sheltering of the vulnerable, as well as the T-cells, some level of herd immunity occurs at as low as 25% which is certainly where most of South Florida is at now. Really glad our esteemed Governor has followed the Science and used common sense despite all the politics and fear mongering.
There seems to be quite a bit of confusion over the difference between the numbers that John Hopkins is displaying and the numbers being reported by FDOH. Here is what I have found so far.
1. John Hopkins does not include people who have tested negative multiple times even if they are different days. This helps explain why their total number of tests is less than half of the number of tests reported by FDOH. This is the wrong approach! The purpose of testing is to find community spread. To leave out the negatives just because the person tested negative in the past leaves you with numbers that don’t accurately reflect the actual spread of the virus.
2. John Hopkins does include people who are repeat positives! Again if our goal is to find community spread then I believe this is the wrong approach as we are now saying how many people have Covid, not whether it is spreading or not. There can be debate whether there is value in showing the repeat positives but not if you are leaving out the repeat negatives.
3. This I only found evidence of in AZ but it is possible that Florida is the same. If a test lab only reports their positives and leaves out their negatives then the state will exclude all information from that lab, while John Hopkins will include it. I don’t think this is happening any more and not in Florida but it is a possibility.
Points 2 and 3 are both debatable and probably only a small change in the numbers but point 1 is very important and I strongly believe that John Hopkins is using the wrong approach. The reasons for testing are varied but a big one is to know community spread, where are the danger spots and where do we need to send resources if there is going to be an outbreak. The consistently falling hospitalizations (75% in 2 months) makes a lot more sense when looking at the FDOH numbers and the way that they report.
Resources:
https://www.azfamily.com/news/continuing_coverage/coronavirus_coverage/the-reason-why-there-are-so-many-conflicting-covid-19-positivity-rates-for-arizona/article_83fa2d80-dc33-11ea-8d38-17fac0e3733a.html
https://www.baltimoresun.com/coronavirus/bs-md-maryland-coronavirus-positivity-rate-hopkins-20200817-zoepxdjlxbazdm6kabrjehbemq-story.html
If i test 1000 people, 10 times each over the month- like say for instance the people in the nba bubble- or i test 1000 people who have tested positive the standard 2 times for negative results to be cleared as they do for hospitalized and quarantined persons. counting more than 1000 initial tests for the nba as negatives or counting ANY of negatives for disease clearance would skew the results to make it appear that positivity is lower. This is exactly what florida has done. They have done this while reducing actual testing to among the lowest per population in the country 1-0.9 tests per thousand. florida apprx 22 million , tests 22-24k per day.
just as a note- the lowered hospitalizations is due to prevalance of spread among younger persons, as this shifts outward over the coming days and weeks you will see hostilizations and deaths increase. with bars open 100% expect a tsunami. you can thank desantis.
Shouldn’t John Hopkins use this same algorithm for NY/NJ/Ct?
I believe for these states they are counting negatives. The result of this manipulation of data is completely misleading and bogus. If John Hopkins was a private company manipulating data to project a certain outcome, the fbi would be investigating them. Lastly, do you know of any lawsuits aimed to stop this? Thx
Johns Hopkins excludes serology and antigen tests but not PCR tests because these tests categorically do not measure the same thing. It is considerable a more scientifically valid dataset even though it is smaller. The Florida DOH dataset includes the proverbial “apples and oranges” in its dataset and muddies the waters. The Johns Hopkins website gives an explains for why it does what it does.
Positivity rate should be checked with John Hopkins. Can anyone explain why it is so much lower with the DOH?
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/testing/individual-states/florida
The amount of tests being performed each day on the Johns Hopkins site is about 3x less than what FDOH is showing. They are showing roughly 23-25K tests per day whereas FDOH is showing as high as 70-80K on some days – 72079 for 9/24. That’s why counting cases is mind-numbing, just tell me how many people are actually getting sick and having to be hospitalized which has been dropping like a rock for 2+ months now. Unfortunately, unlike Europe and the rest of the world, because we have tested so much more, and have so many more cases, a lot more deaths are being wrapped into the overall COVID-19 death number that everyone is breathlessly talking about. You know, died “with” COVID-19 versus died “from” COVID-19. The reality is that excess deaths in Europe paint a different picture than what is actually being attributed to COVID-19 on all the dashboards. If there was never a positive test, they put something else on the death certificate. When the average age of death from COVID-19 is 78 (79 in Florida), and the average life expectancy of an American is 78.4 years, it’s not surprising people are dying when they get any type of respiratory illness. They were extremely fragile to begin with
Contrary to popular belief, John Hopkins is more scientifically valid than the Florida DOH tracker because the JH tracker purposefully excludes serology/antigen tests from its dataset. Serology tests measure a person after they have been infected, or past infection rates. The purpose of these trackers is to report epidemiological information such as positivity rates, seven-day averages, etc. about what the viral loads are in a community in relative real time. You don’t get there by measuring antibodies in the blood. Therefore, Johns Hopkins only includes PCR testing. The other ways that Florida DOH skews data is to exclude multiple positive tests person. Again, epidemiologists want to know and therefore you want to know what the virus is doing in real time. If one of us catches the virus and is in the hospital, we are going to be tested more than once. Enough said. This is why the Florida and Johns Hopkins trackers are so different. I live in Virginia. My governor is a pediatric neurologist and former Army medical corps physician. Up here, we don’t seem to have the same discrepancy as you, and our curve stayed relatively flat this summer. Being a Florida native, though, I do worry about things down there.
John Hopkin’s data does not exclude people who are being tested more than once, while DOH results do. For example, If a person has been tested twice and shows up positive in both instances, John Hopkins counts it as a positive test both times. Florida DOH excludes subsequent test results for the same person, resulting in a lower (but more accurate) positivity rate.
NO matter how you try to spin it, the charts clearly document that Florida is on the right path by re-opening. This resulted in a short bump but already is showing a decline in new cases. There is no need to keep the economy shut down. There was no need to destroy the economy in the first place. The covid-19 has demonstrated a typical new pandemic pattern of hitting and killing the most vulnerable broadly and swiftly and now is powering down to a manageable disease like flu or any other.
The politicians want to muddle the waters and hide the fact they destroyed the best economy in over 50 years and cost you your jobs and savings simply to fear monger and grab for power and control. Facts are proving them wrong. It is time for torches and pitch forks!
Richard
NO it is not on the right path!!!!!!!!!!! Compare the number of tests per day, and the positive rate remains the same…averages about 12%. Tests has decreased in number by well over half since they were slowed by the hurricane.
Where on earth are you getting 12%? Are you looking at the cumulative percent positive? The rolling 7 day average has been under 5% for 11 straight days, and under 10% since the 7th of August. Please don’t make outrageous and false claims here. Facts will win:
https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/96dd742462124fa0b38ddedb9b25e429/
https://business.fau.edu/covidtracker/data/florida-data/
The first link will give you yesterdays percent positive under the florida testing tab – 4.44%. The second link will give you the rolling 7 day average under the heading of Florida Covid Case Testing Positive Percentage.
You need to look at John Hopkins and explain the difference between there 7 day positivity rate of 11.2% and the FDOH numbers and FAU numbers you are quoting.
I really don’t understand how they can be different.
Why is there a discrepancy between that graph and Hopkins’ site showing 11-12% figures.
Do you know why John Hopkins uses totally different numbers for the moving average. And since Florida is and has been below 10% do you know why it hasn’t been taken off other states quarantine list? Thx
I look at John Hopkins and it shows a 7 day moving average positivity rate of 11.2% for Florida. I have tried to check why but cannot explain the difference between their numbers and the FDOH/FAU numbers.
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/testing/tracker/overview
I have asked in the past but no one can tell me why the numbers produced by the Florida Administration are less. As long as we see big differences it i really hard to know what is really going on. It seems globally john Hopkins is considered a reliable source (I am from Europe).
Because FL has interfered with accurate reporting as the Gov, Trump puppet, has altered the nos. Person in charge quit as reported in the press because she refused to doctor( you should pardon the expression) the numbers into a lie.
Death data is available by date of death but this chart shows date of report. Misleading with a backlog of deaths coming in after the fact. I realize it grows the past the other way but this is near meaningless in any time scale.
I have heard from some county employees that Fl contact tracing came to a halt a month or so ago. Is this true?
If it is, then it seems this is one of the main drivers behind lower positive rates and total cases. If we have + and you trace say 5 people per person, and the + rate for each group is say 30%, then for each person + they are missing a boatload of cases. And since this high rate large group is gone, then the FL + rate goes way down. Am I crazy?
It seems to me the whole world has gone crazy but I don’t know you well enough to know for certain 🙂 . To your assumptions though – I don’t think Florida had much of a contact tracing program to begin with but I can’t seem to find an article to suggest it has been shut down. The best I could find is this article dated August 28th (https://www.miamiherald.com/news/coronavirus/article245291420.html). There is a lot of things in this article so I will highlight one specific to this topic.
“The summary shows that as of Aug. 13, the health department’s contact tracing vendor had investigated 37,541 positive cases. From those cases, investigators identified 7,155 contacts — people who have been exposed to a COVID-infected person — but workers were only able to reach 1,627, or about 23% of those people.”
It would seem from that the number of people getting tested because of contact tracing was never enough to move the needle and the lower testing numbers and positivity rates really seem to be because there are less people who have the virus right now. The continued drop in hospitalizations would also support that theory.
Once an epidemic is, essentially, in the process of running its course, contact tracing isn’t very effective. For each confirmed positive case there are quite a few that have not been tested. So, contact tracing of confirmed cases would find only a few of the potentially infected individuals.
Cases are trending down because there are fewer and fewer susceptible individuals. Hospitalizations and deaths are declining because most of the recent cases are young people, with usually much milder disease.
Thank you Aaron for clarifying that. Just like the stats for South Dakota. High positivity rate per John Hopkins, but they are only doing about 2K tests a day. Healthy people don’t get tested. I am a Florida resident and very happy with our diminishing numbers especially in light of the fact that we don’t have the Tri-State (CT, NY, MA, NJ) overreach travel restrictions and a growing population.
Why do the deaths vary greatly from the DOH dashboard?
https://fdoh.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/8d0de33f260d444c852a615dc7837c86
The deaths here are the “reported on” dates. So deaths matching a July death cert may be counted here in Sept. (Weekends generally have a low total.) The DOH dashboard is dynamic and changes the previous July date with additional deaths reported later.
The FAU site Dave links to below is excellent with there county by county breakdowns and FL data. They show how each days reported deaths breakdown and add them accordingly.
Thanks for explanation! Looking into FAU site now.
No problem. I apologize for all the typos. I’m guessing I meant “the” county not “there” or at least “their” and “day’s” not “days.” Garbage writing.
Hope everyone is doing well and feeling more and more optimistic in FL. We own in NYC but have moved out.
This site has been a great asset along with the FAU tracker and is very much appreciated.
I asked the same question a month or so ago and didn’t get a good answer. The daily deaths here are consistently 10-fold higher than reported on the state’s dashboard. Where does Tallahassee, Floridahasseereports get their numbers?
What dashboard are you talking about?
https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/8d0de33f260d444c852a615dc7837c86
The FAU website did a write up on Aug 3 on how/why the confusion on tracking reported deaths (as is done on this site) and tracking of deaths by date of death (as shown on the Fl DOH dashboard site). If you want more detail see the write up below.
The write-up is here https://business.fau.edu/covidtracker/data/selected-charts/covid19-florida-deaths-explainer.php
Thanks Dave, going to look at this now!
Phil, Jon
Florida Atlantic University is tracking some of the things you are looking for.
It contains tracking on state deaths by date of death and positivity tracking for the state as well as several selected countys. It appears to be taken from the same data sets as FDOH and is published daily.
https://business.fau.edu/covidtracker/data/florida-data/
Nice. Lots of good charts there.
Were you all going to add a graph on the positivity rate over time?
How about changing the death chart to the florida one which reflects date of death instead?
Who is publishing comparable charts with Flu data instead?
Florida has posted a 7 day rolling average of less than 10% for some time.
Can someone please tell me where Johns Hopkins gets their numbers from.
There are about 35 states that must quarantine when visiting Ct.
Someone is not looking at the numbers the same way.
I would love to visit my grandkids without having to quarantine,
The lovely Governor of Connecticut is in lockstep with his Tri-State cohorts. They know they all look really bad with 3 out of the top 4 States for deaths/per million rate for the Country, and it’s not even close. Besides the rolling average you mention, they also say the test rate has to be less than 10 per 100,000 residents – what???? I don’t think Connecticut would even meet their own criteria. Unfortunately I don’t think you’ll be able to visit your grandkids until after the election.
I have a friend in Winter Park who has a freshman entering a university in the midwest this fall. Student and anybody helping to move in on opening day has to quarantine for 14 days in that particular state before they will be allowed on campus for move in. The roommate is from CT and has no quarantine requirement. Florida is one of 7 states the university requires for student/parent quarantine. Connecticut? Really?
Which University in the Midwest has such a phobia of Florida? I have my suspicions but wanted to confirm so I don’t send my rising High School Senior daughter there. The fact that Connecticut is OK is laughable at best. The only logical explanation is that most accept the fact that everyone in NY, NY, and Conn had the virus back in March/April/May, to the tune of millions, it’s just that you couldn’t test all the people who weren’t showing symptoms back then.
As of last week, NYC was still a ghost town. What a shame. And Florida is the new “state to hate” by those who hate Trump. Go figure. I have younger relatives in the Northeast and they (kiddingly?) mock Florida. I tell them their bias is not based on knowledge, but that doesn’t matter to the young ‘uns; they’re having too much fun mocking. 🙂
Miami of Ohio
Florida = https://www.miamiherald.com/news/coronavirus/article247081417.html
Quest is no longer reporting (positive or negative cases) to the state since Sept 1. They are the largestest testing lab in the state (if you include all locations of quest lab)… so of the 6.5 Million tests performed by Sept 1. 1 Million of those were by Quest. As of Sept 2 or Sept 1 these are no longer being counted because they were slow to report to the state I think.
I am not sure, but maybe that could account for the difference in numbers including percent positive.
This would be the equivalent of WDW Magic Kingdom not reporting people entering the park if they got to the park via Bus or Monorail or Boat and only included those who drove their own vehicles.
Hospitalizations and deaths are a better predictor IMHO. Deaths are bad, very bad. Hospitalizations are better for September – 2438 since Sept 1. Deaths reported (most have occured in August) are 1,234. 22k new cases reported to the state excluding Quest.
You can’t look at the aggregate numbers as cumulative doesn’t make sense for trend analysis. The best thing to look at are deaths and excess mortality – extra deaths as this number is typically very stable year to year, its uncanny.
Florida has the third largest population in the US, and either the first or second largest amount of elderly, yet currently sits at 17th in terms of deaths/million in the US. Be interested to see how many people end up dying from undiagnosed cancer or high blood pressure because they were too freaked out to go get a check up. Those will be some excess deaths, along with more suicides of course.
That is not entirely accurate. The State of Florida severed ties with Quest on September 1st due to the their testing data backlog drop but that does not mean that Quest is no longer supplying their test data to the State. The majority of tests that they administer are done directly for physicians or for hospitals. All of those tests are still being added to the database. The only major difference when the state dropped Quest was the closing of a couple of state run testing sites that were contracted with Quest.
John Hopkins has been at the forefront of the mis-information campaign unfortunately. One of their most questionable moves is that all of their %positive rates are not per unique individual. So with their data if the same person tests positive 10 days in a row, they are presented as a positive test 10 times. FDOH and most reputable sources all agree that this is not the correct way to report %positivity as it does not properly distinguish whether you are having community spread or if it is just the same people who are already sick. FDOH only includes positive tests if it is the 1st time the person has tested positive.
But Johns Hopkins does it the same for all the states, and Florida shows up as one of the worst states — not only for positivity rates, but also for testing (which has dropped in Florida by over two-thirds ever since Trump whined about too much testing discovering too many cases).
Nice try troll but not true at all, please stick to facts. https://business.fau.edu/covidtracker/data/florida-data/
Scroll down to Florida Covid Case Testing Results. It is true that we are administering less tests now but it is not anywhere near 2/3 less. The reason we are doing less testing however has nothing to do with Trump. Notice the massive drop in positivity rate that accompanies the lack of testing. More people get tested when they are sick, more people were sick in July, because that was absolutely the peak of Covid in Florida. This is not a conspiracy theory and it is not about your politics.
Absolutely agree with Aaron here. There has not been any dramatic drop in testing that hasn’t corresponded to the massive drop in positive percentage.
Florida tested over 70,000 people each of the past 3 days. They haven’t done that done that since late July. The July 3 days resulted in an average of over 9,500 positives per day. Florida’s last 3 days have resulted in just under 3,400 per day.
If you don’t believe the testing, just look at the numbers that matter – hospitals and deaths. Hospital numbers don’t have the lag time issues compared to fatality numbers.
Florida DOH does not use standard measurements while other states do. Very simple. FL DOH uses each negative – ON THE SAME PERSON – as a denominator.
ONLY use JHU numbers – Florida usually does not publish them but others do.
My county in MA (I live in FL 1/2 the year) is currently .12% – or 100X lower than Florida.
If you are coming from FL – at 100X or 50X the rate where your family is, wouldn’t it make sense that you provide the biggest danger?
What is going on with fatalities these last two days?
There is a major backlog in the issuing of death certificates for Covid-19 deaths that is slowly being eased. A lot of these deaths being recorded now are from mid to late August. There has always been a known delay in the reporting and it was assumed to be 5-10 days on average but unfortunately there was a bigger backlog then known. This is why Florida a few weeks back switched so that Doctors could state Covid-19 as the cause of death and not every case had to go to the medical examiner.
I can’t find the exact article but there was an estimated backlog of about 1800 deaths that were waiting for medical examiners to give the final say on about two weeks ago when the new law went into effect (most would be suspected Covid deaths).
Here is an article that details a little bit about the switch in reporting and mentions 650 in the backlog just for Miami-Dade (https://www.orlandosentinel.com/coronavirus/os-ne-coronavirus-medical-examiners-20200826-p4hnz3h3vrafllnpf3fhbix2de-story.html)
In addition to that you also had the major delay from people taking time off over Labor day. Expect to see deaths not level out as quickly as the cases and hospitalizations as that backlog of deaths will be slowly reported over the next few weeks.
I’m aware of the backlog and thank you for the additional article updating those details, BUT…it’s my understanding that once the deaths are counted, they’re attributed to the date of death, not the date the death was verified/counted. That is why we see the numbers going up from 2+ weeks ago on many platforms. Unless I’m incorrect about that, the delay should not be reflected on the present counts.
The deaths are reflected by date of death on the Florida Covid dashboard, but on this site, as well as many others, it is by the day the death is reported.
Right if you look at the state report, its much better.
http://ww11.doh.state.fl.us/comm/_partners/covid19_report_archive/state_reports_latest.pdf
Page 6 shows deaths by date of death, and its more like 50 deaths per day on average.
If you look at the death curve above, you will notice a 7 day pattern from peak to peak. People don’t die on a weekly pattern but the bureaucrats don’t work weekends and holidays so not as many deaths are recorded then. I can tell you from personal experience that new admissions to the hospital for Covid are way down over what they were one month ago, and the patients that do come in are not as sick and are doing better than they were a few weeks ago.
A lot of states have already started changing the way they report cases and more importantly, deaths, because almost everything is being attributed to COVID-19 now. Arizona some time back, and Massachusetts is the latest. In the FDOH report today, there were 103 of these latest deaths in the 85+ category, and another 35 in the 75-84 age range. This is why the CDC will need to go back and do an age adjustment for all these deaths being coded as COVID-19 given that the average life expectancy for an American is 78 and the average age of death from COVID-19 is ironically enough, 78. It’s actually 79 in Florida. So it begs the question was COVID-19 really the culprit.
I think Covid was really the culprit in the vast majority of cases. For someone to have died and incidentally had Covid, like in a car wreck or died of a heart attack, that’s a tiny percentage of cases. Covid is getting a lot better in our area, but I don’t think we should minimize how bad it was. It was bad. Really bad.
Agreed for the most part, but it’s been very clear for many months now who was at the most risk and DeSantis got it right from Day 1, unlike Cuomo and Murphy. We also know COVID-19 is impacting the minority populations at a 4x-5x higher rate on average across all age groups, and that makes up a big portion of South Florida, particularly Miami-Dade. The same thing is being seen in other major Metro areas across the Country given the poor existing health of these groups and lack of proactive medical care. To make matters worse, Florida is very low in terms of elderly populations that live in Nursing Homes and Assisted Living Facilities. A lot of these folks are living in multi-generational households and DeSantis can’t protect them in that setting.
It’s terrible that so many had to die, but I think it’s been contained as best as possible and we’re seeing light at the end of the tunnel. I look at countries like India where they’ve had multiple, strict lockdowns, and beat people in the streets with sticks for not wearing masks. Has it really helped? Not really, they are having the most cases by day, because they are testing more, but also the most deaths per day, which is the only metric that really counts at the end of the day. The virus eventually just has to make its way through the population, you can’t hide from it and hope it just goes away.
Yeah, and in fact, it’s quite the opposite. Florida wasn’t counting comorbidities and was actively trying to suppress numbers, so if, for example, someone had both a cold and COVID 19, then it would be recorded as a death from the Common Cold. Is it really a coincidence that pneumonia deaths are up several hundred percent over last year in Florida and Texas? Plus, Florida is only counting resident deaths, so all of the snowbirds and tourists aren’t counted even though they probably make up about a third of all of the actual cases and deaths in the state.
Are you that stupid…. people are dying from Covid-19… what world ?
Are you living in I guess it’s trump world !
Still trying to figure out how we went from:
– flatten the curve (check)
– prevent hospitals from getting overwhelmed (check)
– reduce the positivity rate (check)
to:
– we can’t have one positive case for even perfectly healthy people, in any school or business
– we need a vaccine
to:
– we don’t want a vaccine before the election because obviously it won’t be safe
Thank you. I get so bogged down in the day to day stuff, I forget to reflect. Good job!
Actually it sounds like you understand perfectly.
Great synopsis!
Could it be that hospitals are increasing the threshold for admitting patients at both ends (not sick enough, and too sick to help)? For example, at some point, Sweden was limiting access to hospitalization for patients that were over a certain age and in a really bad condition.
We are not socialist yet, and we have the power to vote wisely to ensure we don’t go there! Yes, socialist states limit healthcare but here we pay hospitals more for Covid cases, so no limiting rather likely counting everyone possible for more dollars?
Be happy numbers are improving, daily cases coming down, hospitalizations coming down, deaths coming down, and one of the top five healthiest economies in the country. Thank god for good leadership
Ken,You are 100% wrong about any place in the USA being in the top 5 healthiest economies.We are number 1 in Obesity,Gun deaths and More people in prison than any other country.Also Number 1 in COVID cases and deaths of any developed country in the whole world.Facts matter.
Better “facts matter” is to focus on COVID deaths PER POPULATION and there is a whole list of developed countries with higher death rates than US.
Confirmed deaths (absolute) Daily increase (# deaths)¹ Population (in millions) Deaths per million
Peru 30,123 147 31.99 941.66
Belgium 9,917 5 11.42 868.23
Spain 29,628 34 46.72 634.11
Bolivia 7,146 49 11.35 629.43
Ecuador 10,701 74 17.08 626.36
United Kingdom² 41,594 8 66.49 625.58
Chile 11,702 20 18.73 624.8
Brazil 128,539 1,075 209.47 613.64
Italy 35,577 14 60.43 588.72
USA² 190,332 1,174 327.17 581.76
Us and Brazil the only country losing over 1000 people a DAY!! Everyone else NOW has it under control!!!
You do realize that we ration healthcare in the US too, we just do it by whether or not the person has enough money to pay for it, rather than whether or not that care will do the greatest good for society. And in fact, far more people are denied healthcare in the US than in countries with universal healthcare because there is nearly always a surplus of hospital beds, so there’s no need to worry about rationing, unless you can’t afford treatment. 29% of Americans are on Medicaid or have no insurance at all, meaning that at pretty much any private hospital, which is about 80% of hospitals in the US, they’d be turned away. And it’s not like American healthcare is any better for it. Just like in pretty much every other metric, we rank at pretty much the bottom in terms of quality of healthcare compared to other OECD countries.
That Sweden comment is just not true. They never came anywhere near exhausting their hospital and ICU capacity. They also achieved that while never shutting down for even a day.
Apparently Sweden turned away older people to keep capacity open for an expected capacity-challenging peak. When it arrived, the peak was much lower than expected and they unfortunately lost some older folks that they didn’t need to lose.
Support for that claim that they denied geriatric patients?
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-52704836
Florida ranks #45 or so in health care access.
IMHE predicts deaths in FL will stay high (100-200) pretty much as far out as we can look – 26K plus by Jan.
Deaths from LTC and Nursing now can happen with no hospitalization- many have covered to “covid” centers and they have Hospice in-house.
So you are correct that Hospitalizations do not tell us everything. But deaths do tell us a little and Florida is 13% plus positive – 10X or so that of states that care about their residents.
It could be that there are very few new hospitalizations and that almost of the reduction in the hospitalization numbers are coming from hospital patient deaths. Does anyone have any idea where to get a number for new patients being hospitalized each day. It seems to be coming to a point where all the reduction in hospitalizations is coming from deaths (rather than recoveries)
Per the FDOH dashboard there have been a total of 40083 hospitalizations for COVID-like symptoms for FL residents and a total of 11871 Florida deaths due to COVID complications since the tracking started. So for sure the majority of hospitalizations have resulted in discharge/recovery. Unlike Saint Cuomo and New York, Florida is counting people that died in the Nursing Homes as part of the COVID-19 death count, so the percentage of people getting discharged from the hospital is even higher.
Any chance you could add a positivity % graph to this daily update?
Yes! This would be great
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/testing/individual-states/florida
Why does the % positivity rate between the John Hopkins link and the frog link look so different?
FDOH not frog
FL DOH uses numbers they made up – seriously, They don’t use standardized disease positivity numbers. The reason is obvious – to fool you.
Example:
If we take 20 people (say many of them work in LTC or are athletes, etc.) and test them once a week for a month – that’s 80 tests.
If 8 of them show up positive at the end of the month Florida would call that 10% positivity.
Johns Hopkins and the entire rest of the world cold call that 8 out of 20 – or 40% positivity.
Don’t be fooled. Don’t read Fl DOH reports.
Does anyone know where to find this type of presentation for Leon County?
County Hospitalizations can be found here: https://bi.ahca.myflorida.com/t/ABICC/views/Public/COVIDHospitalizationsCounty?%3AshowAppBanner=false&%3Adisplay_count=n&%3AshowVizHome=n&%3Aorigin=viz_share_link&%3AisGuestRedirectFromVizportal=y&%3Aembed=y
Other county data can be found here: http://ww11.doh.state.fl.us/comm/_partners/covid19_report_archive/county_reports_latest.pdf
and on the Dashboard, here: https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/96dd742462124fa0b38ddedb9b25e429
Thank you, Joseph.
Hi Joseph. The http://ww11.doh.state.fl.us/comm/_partners/covid19_report_archive/county_reports_latest.pdf link isn’t working anymore. Any idea what happened?
This reporting, surprisingly from NYT, challenges the mainstream media narrative:
“The standard tests are diagnosing huge numbers of people who may be carrying relatively insignificant amounts of the virus.”
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/29/health/coronavirus-testing.html
I don’t know; it’s obvious that a majority of people don’t get very sick from Covid, still plenty do and it’s not 100% predictable who those people are going to be in advance. It looks like Florida had a bit of an uptick in cases and percentage of tests positive that started 8/31. What really matters, however, are hospitalizations which for now are in a downtrend. Look out for those numbers around Sept. 9. If they don’t bump very much we’re good. This is probably the first signal from schools opening. About 34% of Floridians should have or have had antibodies at this point. Another 34% should have specific T cell immunity to SARS CoV2.
Not really surprising at all. The original criticism was that we were not testing enough. Now that we are testing anyone who might possibly be willing to submit to a test we have to shift the argument to how it isn’t the “right” test.
Gotta love the FDOH. Miami-Dade decides to re-open indoor dining this week and then magically FDOH hoards the death numbers and report 100 alone in Miami-Dade yesterday. If you look at the line data, you will see some of these were from more than 2 months back. Miami-Dade is a mess, no doubt, due to all the multi-generation families living together in close quarters, but this is the first time I can remember such a large disparity between the counties. The next highest County was Palm Beach with 9 and after that it was 5. Maybe Miami-Dade has a more deadly strain all of a sudden.
I think you are attacking the wrong agency here. The FDOH only reports the numbers as they get them, the delay in the reporting happens at the county medical examiner level. This is not the first time that this happened either. I know at least one other example which is August 10th there were 91 total and 35 were reported from Manatee county (which is approximately 15% of the manatee county total all time). There are several reasons this can occur but I’m not sure any of them are truly nefarious. This is from the incident in Manatee:
Chief Medical Examiner Dr. Russell Vega.
“We didn’t suddenly have 35 deaths in one day but we did have a lot of deaths last weekend,” Vega said. “I was not as diligent as I could have or should have been in reporting those.”
Regardless of the numbers it is time for everything to open and life must be started to move forward. We have a very small window where we can save our economy and country (not politically) but we must get moving forward now and not delay.
Could be, timing is just very suspicious. More and more reports coming out every day about how the death and case numbers are severely skewed. Never in my life have I seen such a strong push by so many people to attribute everything to COVID-19. It will be interesting to see when the CDC goes back and does the numbers a year or two from now and does the age adjustment to get the true death rate from COVID-19. That’s assuming of course the deaths were even labeled correctly to begin with. For sure when the average life expectancy of an American is 78.4 years, and the average age of death from COVID-19 is 78 (79 in Florida currently), you have to wonder if COVID-19 was really the main culprit.
This is definitely a concern. Perhaps the best, albeit imperfect way to assess the degree of accuracy of death attributed to Covid is to examine the overall death toll in the country which follows a very predictable statistical pattern. This data can be seen at https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm#:~:text=Excess%20deaths%20are%20typically%20defined,in%20which%20the%20death%20occurred
The takeway from this data is that there have been between 189,000 and 234,000 excess (abnormal) deaths in the US since March. Of course this could be attributable to other causes then Covid. But an objective opinion would probably conclude that the current death toll of 186,000 is fairly conservative. It is extremely likely that the number is somewhat higher.
Some of these excess deaths can be attributed to people not getting regular check ups and keeping high blood pressure and pre-diabetes conditions in check. Worse yet, diagnosis of cancer is WAY down, like 40% per some studies. None of these medical conditions magically disappeared in 2020. My wife is a nurse and they had a patient the other day that needed a heart procedure but the OR wouldn’t take him until he had a negative COVID-19 test. Guess what, he ended up dying of a massive heart attack. Mark my words, his death will be counted as a COVID-related death. The media has made people scared to go to the doctor for any reason now and we know suicides and overdoses are also up.
Not to say minds can be changed, but FL is largely “open” and when the rest of the country and world comes down this winter and some get infected, that is going to make certain it takes that many more years for “the economy” to recover.
If it comes to it, other states will crack down hard on FL infected people coming back.
This will not be a good thing for Florida reputation.
As far as “the economy” – assuming you can still learn things, here is something to chew on. CT, with a .5% positivity rate, was recently measured at 86% of their pre-pandemic level. That would be OVER 60,000 per capita.
FL economy, assuming it was 90% open (might be) – would be less than 40K per person. If it was FULLY open (impossible because people from elsewhere simply aren’t going to come to the same degree), it would be 44K per person.
So which would you choose? Opening colleges and schools safely (they are in CT) and 60K per person, or the “great economy” in Florida at 40K per person? Think carefully now.
CDC weekly national summaries include deaths from Pneumonia, Influenza, and Covid (PIC) in their overall Mortality Rates. CDC states PIC mortality rate for latest week #34 is 7.9%.
Does Florida DOH also include Pneumonia and Influenza in these overall FL state death counts?
today: missing hospitalizations chart, have deaths chart twice
Got it. Thanks.
Wrong Hosptilzation Graph on 8/28 Bring back old hospital graph with trend line and yes latest post FIRST!
the department of health changed how they were reporting the numbers.
You noticed too right ? We actually have a ton of cases, if they count the positive rate the right way. I swear they will do anything to skew the numbers to appear “safer”. I trust Rebekah Jones website it’s funny her count has been accurate the whole time. I think it’s a lie about quest, to make the miscounting appear their fault.
FL state dashboard reports less cases which actually makes their fatality ratio look higher. I am not sure it really makes things appear “safer” other than a fewer less cases.
You have the easiest graphs of the virus I have found. Thank you. My only suggestion would be to put the newest replies first. Things have changed alot since April and most of the older replies aren’t that relevant now.
Oh, my, yes, turrrible turrible. 2.79% of Florida population infected, 0,048% died. 1.72% in USA confirmed infected, 0.053% have died. 9% (over 21% in NY) of those in statistical screening projects found to have antibodies. 0.307% of world population infected, 0.011% have died. Only a little over a dozen prospective vaccines in testing, over 110 pharma treatments in use. Curl up in a hidey-hole. Never mind the tornado the weather service is warning of over in Marianna this evening.
It will be interesting to see what the death rates from COVID-19 end up being after they do the age adjustment like they do for all causes of death. For sure it will be lower, potentially much lower because the average age of death from COVID-19 is 78 (79 in Florida) which just happens to be the average life expectancy of an American. Hmmm, coincidence????
You’re wrong. Life expectancy is an average that includes many young people and children who have died of accidents, illness, and drug overdoses. If you make it to your late 70s you have on average about ten years of life left.
The key is in the Excess deaths. The man you cited who died waiting for a COVID test would not have died in any other year. Of COURSE COVID is complicit in his death!! People that stayed home afraid to go to the hospital for that pain running down their arm are COVID related deaths. It is very Clear they would not have died but for COVID- otherwise Why the HUGE increase in excess deaths?
Your statistics are flawed and you know it. You can have a smart-assed attitude if you want; you’ll sing a different tune if you get the virus.
I keep hearing about “going to Phase 2” soon with all this positive news. However, not really sure what that means. In South Florida, we were excluded from opening stand-alone bars, but other than that, most of Phase 2 was already in place. We are already operating at 50% capacity for indoor dining, the bowling alleys were already open, and the movie theaters opened back up last Friday. Is this just about the bar service and maybe increasing capacity a bit more? Each County is already making their own decisions about in-class Public school instruction, with a heavy hand from the Teacher’s Union. The Governor has already said he wants choices offered – in-class, remote, hybrid. Broward County is imposing their own rules like restaurants closing at 10pm and the on-going mask mandate which has been in place since early May. Nothing to do with the Governor’s orders.
If anyone knows what’s missing as part of Phase 2, can you please clarify?
#herdimmunity
Dear Governor, Please continue to free us more and more. Keep us old people at home and let the rest go to work to feed their families. Quarantine the sick, not the well. Open the schools. There will be many more Covid’s in this life, but life must go on.
I believe that no one ever shows or states a positive spin on how people are surviving the virus. Plus, the media is purposely scaring everyone so they won’t go outside or to work or to vote and I believe that it’s political. Please report the definite trend showing that cases are trending down, as less people are sick. I’m a 71 year old woman and I’ve been following the guidelines to an extent. I have been outside with a mask on and keeping a safe distance from other individuals, since this whole thing began. I encourage other people to do the same as long as you are not immune-challenged. And, of course, stay away from anyone who shows a sign of illness. Life is too short to stay inside. Just use the precautions that have been suggested. And poor Margaret – she really ranted and raved and didn’t make much sense. Blessings to everyone.
Publishing CURRENT stats for everything is the ONLY logical method of tracking Covid-19! That is why CDC is allowing cruise lines to start up in 6 weeks!
Looking good, Florida! I see your cases are down, deaths down, and hospitalizations are down. Same across the other states along the Gulf (except Alabama. I don’t know about Alabama. Well, I better not say any more), and, well with Texas, at least eastern Texas is much better too. So what did it? What brought the epidemic down? Was it a lockdown? Nope. Was the population issued N95’s? Nope. It’s the good old human immune system, I believe. Now, is there still Covid out there? Yep. Could Covid still put your sorry self 6 foot down in a hole? You bet your patouttie it can and will if you’re not careful. So be glad, but don’t let your guard down. It ain’t over ’til the fat lady sings, but it sure as heck looks a lot better. Good job, Floridians! Here’s hoping we see y’all on the loosing side of a football field here in the next few weeks!
You’re literally too stupid to insult.
Close to 600,000 cases! Governor Disastrous heck of a job
Take your garbage and peddle it elsewhere. People come here for facts. Like the fact that the current hospitalizations today are almost exactly half what they were at the peak of ~9500 on 7/22. The hospitals did not get overwhelmed, and we managed to reach a level of herd immunity (obviously not enough to eliminate it, but enough to drastically slow it down). The governors job is not to take away my freedoms for something that really does not affect the mass majority of people. Our numbers still blow away those of NY and NJ and are right on par with states like Michigan and California. You don’t have to get a life but you no longer get to tell the rest of us we aren’t allowed ours.
Excellent response Aaron. I would bet that Mr. Powers has been getting a paycheck through this whole pandemic so opening up the economy means nothing to him. Of course, he quotes the MSM’s favorite statistic by using the meaningless cases number. That number includes many who didn’t even know they had the virus but let’s shut down the economy anyway. A better statistic to use is the deaths per million and there are 15 states worse than Florida, many by a factor of two or three.
I SO AGREE
Have you doom and gloom complainers reallllllly thought this out, Wanting to shut down our economy. People are going to die yes, and its me thats life.
Its not the government’s job to take care of you who choose not to work.
If we dont let people get back to work the government wont be able to help anyone. Without the wheels of progress continuing amd people not earning money to pay taxes, government will self annihilate.
Forgive me im sick and tired of people thinking its the governments job to help them.
In the bible we read.
Those who wont work and are able, dont deserve to eat. Not the exact words but close enough.
Im not the best writer but hopefully it made some sense.
Debbie
Pure de santis.15000 cases july 30 an 253 dead each day.so he and trump start just countiny hospital positive cases and deaths august 1! Leavingbout 3x more daily tests at sites and sent home sick wait 2 weeks results since trump de santis fired most private labs doing 2 results.
So thousands weekly die AT HOME NOT COUNTED BY TRUMP DE SANTIS SINCE AUG 1 THEY ONLY COUNT HOSPITAL VIRUS DEATHS AND CASES AS DE SANTIS USES LAME EXCUSE FOR PORTION REPORTING TRUTH DAILY. Wonder whyv1000 dropped fast to 4000 3000.cheating and fake tracking methods.since aug 1. Cases realyl over 20000 daily deaths over 300 daily both rising. Lying.killing. fla worst by far if true data and increasing fasteven hospitl only dead yesterday 153 thats 1071
A WEEK AND UNACCEPTABLE. NOTBEVEN COUNTING THOUSANDS WEEKLY SENT HOME TO DIE NOT COUNTED AS TRUMP DE SANTIS ORDERED MEDICAL EXAMINERD TO STOP PUBLIC VIRUS AT HOME REPORTS.trump de santis scam newctrack methods aug 1 on are killing ecposing milions by november all hidden.dont be fooled.understandvecsantis says on tv only track.hospitals.most die home from virus since aug 1 waitg deliberate delayed 2 wk.results dnt get dead counted per e santis trump fake new track methods as true mass murder is spiraling record highs daily. Stop being fooled.listen to new faking tracking ways.de santis and trump with new tricks to show fake declining per medl ecpertsxwi now kill on.to 30 million by.december.is mass murder for noncaring fake president to try be back kill more.becase he doesnt do anything to slow virus nor does de santis.only idiots dont listen to e santi admit since aug 1 only hosptal dsgnosis and deaths counted. Hiding 3cx both every day fooling you. Florida deadliest state record.deaths not counted total since aug 1 he admits changed trackg aug 1 to only small portion g hositals he counts says total.lies.
Positvity rate all daily virus cas is up to 26 percent so he says stopped using it ecaue hes lying saying total cases 3000 4000 as thatsonly hospitals.not sick at home dying
Not carrers banned from tests s now.not carriers banned from tests now ongoing exposing many millions across america infecting.killing.trump.wont count them dead as cantbget tests anymore if IF ECPosed only counts HOSPITAL DEPATHS HE SAYS. MASS MURDER TRUMP. DESANTIS CHANGES.SATANIC.DONTT BE FOOLED LIKE YOU ARE.LISTEN CHECK OUT EARLY AUG CHANGE TO JUST HOSITSLS. JUST A THIRD OF VIRUS CASES AND AS MANY THOUSANDS DAILY SENT HOME EVERY STATE WAIT DELAYED RESULTS AND DIE HOME TRUMP.STOPPED COUNTINGTHEM SINCE AUGB1
CHART DECLINING A SCAM Of THESE murderous changes.now even more murder changes trump getscdaily tests.trump.mask mandates wh protect him.he knows.wontprotect us.never will.because hes cutting more test funding.he doesnt care abt americans.just himself and title andbeing cheap lazy murderous liar.
SO FLORIDACWRSE DAILY.NO DECLINING.NO MASKS.MORE OPEN.E SATIS ANVRUMP
The young are going to do well. It is really only the old and obese and diseased that will die. At the end of the day, these are people (most, but not all, of course) that do not contribute much to the economy. They have enjoyed a good life and I bet that if you ask them, they would be happy to die so that their children can grow up in a land of abundant resources. Gov Desantis knows this.
“there are 15 states worse than Florida….” So you get that there are 34 states *better* than Florida, right? You’re bragging about being ranked 35th in deaths per million? Wow.
# of cases is still the most meaningless thing that the sheep focus on, I guess because CNN and MSNBC preach it 24/7. It’s completely dependent upon testing and the State population. Is it a coincidence that the three most populous states have the most cases? Does anyone realize how many people in NY, NJ, and Conn actually had this thing but they couldn’t test everyone that moved back in March/April, only the sick people. Those States would be well into the millions and there are multiple antibody tests and studies to confirm that. The US has conducted over 75M tests now, no other Country is close, but we know herd immunity has occurred in a lot of Europe now. Masks are not the answer, never have been as indicated by all these States with mask mandates since the beginning of the pandemic doing worse than States who never had a mask mandate. Immunity was always the only way out as we are seeing now. Sweden looking smarter and smarter as each day goes by compared to Belgium, UK, Italy, Spain. Dems won’t be able to milk the fear all the way to Nov. 3, that’s pretty obvious now,
Nov 4th…Per million people, Sweden has suffered 40 percent more deaths than the United States, 12 times more than Norway, seven times more than Finland and six times more than Denmark.
Nov 4th cont’d…What is only now emerging is how Sweden, despite letting its economy run unimpeded, has still suffered business-destroying, prosperity-diminishing damage, and at nearly the same magnitude of its neighbors.
Sweden? FAIL….just like the rest of the world.
Whether you get virus is almost entirely up to each individual, not the politicians. The chance of you becoming affected with this virus approaches zero if you do all the things necessary to protect yourself. Blaming Desantis for the number of positive cases and deaths is analogous to blaming him for the number for automobile deaths associated with not wearing a seat belt. Resist the desire to control everyone else and take responsibility for you own actions.
Butch, I think the current number of Covid patients currently hospitalized has more meaning than the daily number hospitalized. It lets us see if we’re in danger of running out of beds, which has always been a major concern. The number of new hospitalizations each day gives no real insight.
Hi Staff,
Comments are glitchy. Mid-May-Aug mostly missing. Used to be able to scroll down and read the newest batch. Any way to keep the newest comments on top?
We are working on a software fix. We had to upgrade our site and ran into a glitch. Thanks
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Thabk you Tallahasseereports.com for presenting this information every day. I wish you would use the same time scale for hospitalizations as cases and deaths….
Denmark, Norway, and Sweden.
Some little known facts
Sweden has public health care. The majority of older people live with their extended family. so they had higher death rates of older people since they were exposed to the entire family
Sweden population is twice that of Denmark and also twice that of Norway
Denmark and Norway have private health care and the majority of their older people life in their own homes. There are insurance policies that provide home health card for the elderly that is some time aided by the government. Their older population had a lesser death rate because they could protect themselves easier.
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In tracking the virus it is clear that the number of cases, nor the number of active cases are what we should be watching. It is the rate of growth of cases and the rate of growth of death and both of those are declining. We are on the right path.
I am concerned about the lack of information spread about using public restrooms. The research has been done and the results are horrible. The toilet plume spreads the virus up from the toilet for about three feet. It covers everything around the toilet. It continues to plume virus for up to six flushes. It spreads on the toilet, toilet seat, toilet tissue, doors door handles, etc. They found virus on the doors to the bathrooms, in the sink, on the towel dispenser. They also found that the blow dryers spread it in the air for some time as it sucks up aid to blow it out . I haven’t heard a WORD about this from the news. However the research is out there from many major universities.
I agree 100% on cases and have been positing growth rates here. Cases beget cases, right? The 7-day average growth rate actually peaked around July 1st, well before everyone started saying FL was out of control in mid-late July because “we opened too soon.” As I posted earlier, the growth rate is now down to 1.3%, which is below the growth rate at the end of our lockdown. Basically, we didn’t so much flatten the curve as delay it, but we’re over the hump now and getting through it whether we want to admit it or not. I have a great graph I wish I could display here showing how much the growth rate has improved.
On the other hand, I don’t agree on a death growth rate, because deaths don’t beget deaths. A better measure would involve correlation between cases and deaths with a time delay, but it’s not worth my time to pursue it. If people don’t understand the importance of growth rates, they’re definitely not going to understand time-delay correlation.
It IS looking like we are at the beginning of the end. I’m thinking we might have a bump up or two in death rates before it’s over, but hopefully the overall downward trend continues.
Viva la Floride!
I believe that we accomplished what we set out to do. The lockdown helped to delay the spike in cases and allowed us time to gather proper PPE and ventilators to handle the pandemic. Then holidays, cabin fever, protests and the like encouraged people to head outside of their homes ( some without proper protection). Our freedoms as a country promoted the spread of this disease. Once the cases and deaths spiked, people began taking mask wearing more seriously. I believe the value of mask and googles is to prevent us from accidentally touching our eyes and mouth and help prevent the virus from entering our bodies. In addition I believe and added precaution would be to hold your breath for about 10 seconds as you pass people walking by( especially if they are not wearing masks). I have been doing this for months. If both people passing by each other do this than the likelihood of breathing in the virus should be greatly reduced. Wear masks and googles until this pandemic is over. Help keep Florida’s numbers down.
How about “goggles”?
Thanks Robert I agree on the deaths…
Yay! Positivity Rate Trends, by State, John Hopkins: https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/testing/individual-states/florida
That’s a misleading graph. It’s reporting on all tests which could be multiple re-tests of the same positive person.
The more appropriate statistic is percent positive of new cases which is steadily trending down and is currently at about 10% in the last 7 days.
BTW, staff, I love the new CURRENT hospitalizations. Because that’s what really matters.
Thanks.
Florida’s 7-day average growth rate is now 1.6%, which is LOWER than where we were at the end of the lockdown.
My local paper, rather than write about how the number of new cases is steadily trending downwards and how current hospitalizations are also trending downwards, instead focused on how the numbers from yesterday increased over the previous two days, and are ticking upwards. What they failed to mention is that the weekends ALWAYS have lower numbers, reported on Sunday and Monday. They have to know that, yet they chose the path of most fear-mongering.
Ariana Plekary, a former MSNBC producer, quit her job on July 24. She posted a letter on her website explaining why. Basically, she could no longer work in an industry where damage was knowingly being caused in an effort to gain ratings, and in turn, money.
https://www.arianapekary.net/post/personal-news-why-i-m-now-leaving-msnbc
Tara-MSNBC, OAN, Fox, CNN are all the same from the perspective of seeking things that drive the ratings. I highly suggest people stream the series “Newsroom”. Climate change, the treatment of the Kurds, the increasing bankruptcies in farms, not much heard. I am fine with cable networks that have a bias as long as they try to seek truth and stop presenting the opposite sides as evil or using the worst examples of folks on the left or right to charicterize opposing sides. They have made Covid Red vs Blue when it is virus vs. people.
This was the only site I could find that had all the data to answer the following question:
How have things changed since the “reopening”. With your decision to post “current hospitalizations” instead of the previous offering, “Daily Hospitalizations” with data back to 4/27, we no longer have the necessary data on hospitalizations. If you do the same thing with “Daily Fatalities” we will have no means to answer any important part of the question above. You would think you could find this data in the form of full term, 4/7 – present, charts on the FL dashboard, but this has never been the case.
For the record, if we take the “reopening” as about 6/1, your previous data charts showed:
Daily Cases up 10-fold, Daily Hospitalizations up about 4-fold, Daily Fatalities up about 3-fold.
Agree
I think both hospitalization charts would be ideal.
It’s starting to make sense why Florida is seeing an uptick, and now hopefully a downturn, in deaths. In South Florida, a lot of minorities working in the Service Industry going back to work and now bringing this thing home to their elders. A lot of multi-generational households, and my wife who is a Nurse has seen first hand all of the families coming in. We already know COVID-19 is hitting minorities much harder due to underlying health issue and lack of proactive Doctor visits. This is very unfortunate and tragic for those families that it’s now catching up to them.
Per the Florida HealthCare Association (FHCA) site, Florida has one of the lowest over-65 population to nursing home population ratio in the country, meaning a lot of older people are living at home and can’t be protected by DeSantis’ orders. I haven’t heard anyone arguing, yet, that we all need to be wearing masks in our own homes.
I pray this doesn’t reach the magnitude that it did in New York and New Jersey, which currently account for around 30% of all the COVID-19 deaths,
Interesting take
I live in north Florida.. & have witnessed my 86-yr-old gma contract the disease & a 31 year old coworker (ex coworker, since my hubby lost his job of 8 yrs bc of covid) almost die, after being intubated for a week in the hospital.
So many peeps refuse to wear a mask-it’s upsetting. Now my 8 year old daughter has all the symptoms.,& we are trying to get her tested.
I wish people wouldn’t politicize the mask-issue. Just wear one! Protect yourself & others-Jesus.
Trump was completely irresponsible & so is desantis. The state is forcing children &!teachers into schools where they can contract it more ,& forcing adults into the workforce by stopping unemployment benefits-making it harder to get them. It’s bs.
& I remember reading someone’s comment on the # of deaths in Florida going down, so it’s good we’re restarting the economy! Well, Not anymore, idiots! Now the # of deaths are going up steadily-bc of the premature opening the economy in fl. & it’s just going to keep going up-it they’re forcing people into situations where they can contract it & bring it back to their families.
We are homeschooling our daughter.
The gvnmt is supposed to use our gd tax money for us! That’s why we pay taxes. They’re just not used to actually doing what they’re supposed to do with our money-they’re used to using it for themselves..& getting rich off of us! I say, No more welfare for the rich! More welfare for the poor! (For the welfare of humanity..lol)
So not the mask issue, but EVERYTHING else. Got it.
I do believe that whoever starts his handling of a global pandemic by selling stocks and calling it a democratic hoax loses thereby his right to note other people’s “politicizing” of the issue. Masks and ALL.
Especially after 160k deaths.
(Florida is 14th in the WORLD, btw, in COVID-19 deaths per 1M pop.)
You may need to learn how to add. FL is #18 in the US in deaths per 1m which makes it impossible to be 14th in the world.
“why in the hell would you ever post an opinion that is not entirely supported by evidence that would lead anyone who reads it to do anything other than that which is the most appropriate action.” No one in the internet ever does that! lol
I think we might get through this without another lockdown. I don’t have a Republican bone in my body, but I have to say I approve of the balance between public health and economy that DeSantis has pursued. He’s resisted statewide mandates for this or that, and it has been a smart move, because what Miami needs is not what the panhandle needs. I don’t like the guy’s politics, but on this issue I give him an A.
It might just about be over, people. Light a candle
The new hospital graph seems to be a clearer snapshot of how many serious cases are out there, and the decline in those hospitalized cases over the past several days has me cautiously optimistic that it’s starting to come under some semblance of control. Texas has been in a similar pattern for a couple of weeks.
Can you please continue to include the old hospitalization graph? The combination of it plus this new graph gives us insight into other data as well!
This country better get on with living or continue dying!
Good numbers today. Although that might just be because of Hurricane No One Can Spell or Pronounce.
The 7-day average new case growth rate continues to drop steadily. It now stands at 2.1% per day, the lowest level since June 17th. The peak was on July 1st at 5.0%.
Please do not pay any attention to the number of cases but rather to the percentage of positive cases.
a. 10 tested 2 are positive = 20%
b. 100 tested 20 are positive = 20%
c. 10,000 tested 2,000 are positive =20%
d. 1,000 tested 200 are positive = 20%
The number of positive cases go up and down but the percentage stays the same regardless of how many are tested. Don’t let the graphs and the politicians mislead you. Florida needs the percentage to go DOWN DOWN DOWN!!
Sorry I meant to add:
August 5th from Floridatoday.com “The state added 5,409 new cases Wednesday. In total numbers, the state has registered 502,739 cases, with 497,181 residents affected. The percentage of people testing positive increased to 13.16%”
local10.com “Positivity statewide has remained between 9% and 13% throughout the past week”
I could agree if testing were random, but more people get tested when more people have symptoms. Also we know that some testing centers weren’t reporting negative tests. Total cases isn’t perfect either as it includes retests, misses asymptomatic cases, etc. but as long as those things don’t vary significantly over time they don’t significanly impact the growth rate. The growth rate, incidentally, has continued to drop and was 1.3% as of yesterday.
Jesse, the motivation is finding your comfort. Some find it in hope that this will go away with the least amount of damage. It obviously gives comfort to some people to hold onto that hope, while others find comfort in focusing on the worst. Others find comfort in judging and scolding people for not adhering to safety measures, while others would feel extremely uncomfortable doing that. To each his own.
To someone who is trying their best to think about this rationally, that provides no comfort. But thank you for what I suppose is an accurate assessment.
I get that some need their comfort in seeing everyone act responsibly, and witnessing people’s neglect can be very alarming. I just came back from Home Depot, where everyone is required to wear a mask. Some old guy came in without one, walked right through the checkout line going the wrong way, passing by within inches of everyone on line. That absolutely would make everyone he passed uncomfortable, the least of reasons being that behavior seems kind of mentally challenged.
Me, I find my comfort in trying my best not to let fearful thoughts haunt me night and day. I find comfort in hearing about how many people get it and have mild symptoms. And lastly, I find comfort in looking at the numbers and hoping we are just beginning to see the end here in Florida.
Why would anyone think children won’t spread the virus? That never made much sense to me. In Georgia hundreds of kids at a camp got the virus:
*************************
Five days after the start of orientation and two days after the start of the camp session, a teenage staff member fell ill and left camp; the next day that person was confirmed to have Covid-19. Officials began sending campers home that day and closed the camp three days later.
The Georgia Department of Health was notified and began its investigation the day after the first teenage staffer fell ill. All in all, test results were available for 344 (58%) of the 597 attendees from Georgia; among these, 260 (76%) were positive. At least 44% — 260 of 597 — got infected, although the researchers say not everyone was tested so the rate could be even higher. The 27 out-of-state attendees were not counted in this preliminary analysis.
Asymptomatic infection was common and may have played a role in the spread, the study authors said. Among 136 cases with available information on symptoms, 36 patients — 26% — reported no symptoms. Of the 100 who reported symptoms, those most commonly reported were subjective or documented fever, headache and sore throat.
Interestingly, a higher percentage of the youngest children tested positive: 51% among those age 6-10 years, 44% among those age 11-17 years, and 33% among those aged 18-21 years tested positive.
“This investigation adds to the body of evidence demonstrating that children of all ages are susceptible to SARS-CoV-2 infection and, contrary to early reports, might play an important role in transmission,” the study authors wrote.
******************
All of those children survived it easily, which is good news.
I just hope we truly have peaked and are finally seeing the light at the end of the tunnel. I still think this virus needs to run its course—-NY was still averaging thousands and thousands of new cases a day while they were well into the lockdown. It is yet unknown what will happen after shutdown gets lifted.
I am cautiously happy that we may be seeing things OK in Florida without having had to shut down again. I am also cautiously happy that everyone I know who tested positive has survived, most with mild symptoms, and that includes an 89-year-old.
I have read through as many of these posts as I could stomach. All I have taken away is this: Regardless of your view, why in the hell would you ever post an opinion that is not entirely supported by evidence that would lead anyone who reads it to do anything other than that which is the most appropriate action. And the most responsible and safe action? Why? Are you hungry for attention? Who are you people? You are posting on a site that is posting daily statistics that fly in the face of your views. I am baffled. What is your motivation? Do you think there is a conspiracy theory? If so, what is the motivation? Honestly, I am confused.
I said here, three weeks ago:
“I think it’s a good bet though, that we’ll see national deaths hit at least 1500/day again sometime in the next month, and FL hit at least 200/day. It does appear though that FL could be starting to flatten the new case curve, after last weeks agressive actions by county and state authorities, so hopefully it won’t go higher than that.”
Since then, new cases have flattened. Testing is down a bit too, so the decline isn’t a much as it appears in the graph, but it’s nonetheless real. Cases peaked almost 3 weeks ago, hospitalizations almost 2 weeks ago, and deaths hopefully are peaking now, over 250 each of the last 2 days in FL. Nationally, cases & hospitalizations both peaked about a week later than FL, so I think we’ll still break 1500/day there (hit 1465 the last two days), but may not go too much higher than that. It should (hopefully) stay under 2000 at least.
And I think it will IF we keep vigilant and keep current preventive measures in place. We don’t need all out shutdowns. But things like wearing masks, avoiding large indoor gatherings, etc. At this point, we are going to need months of these things, not weeks.
> Since then, new cases have flattened. Testing is down a bit too, so the decline isn’t a much as it appears in the graph, but it’s nonetheless real.
We are observing a ceiling in testing capability, which I do not think we should equate to a stabilization in cases anymore than thinking the distance our headlights pierce the darkness tells us about what lies beyond the cone of light they project. If we can’t test everyone we want to, and tests take ten days to be processed, I doubt we have that great an idea of what is actually happening out there.
But, it does seem like south florida has been trying to dissuade people from going maskless. So that is good, and presumably can help slow the spread. One can hope. Ultimately our hospitalization rate will tell us if it is a plateau in testing or cases, though one wonders in some areas of South Florida if we will even be *able* to tell; i.e., Broward county hospitals are currently taking in overflow from Miami / Dade patients. Will they ship covid patients in Miami to Orlando when Broward can no longer accept them? Or will they determine who has the best chances of survival and send the rest back to their homes?
Also, problematic to the idea that deaths have reached a stopping point is the slow march northwards the virus is taking from Miami; if it becomes widespread in the villages, our median age won’t be 42 anymore, and we will long for the days of 250 deaths per day.
I have found this graph to be informative. And terrifying.
https://imgur.com/a/87suFn6
> Nationally, cases & hospitalizations both peaked about a week later than FL
I don’t think it is meaningful to apply the entire country as a whole; we have a series of epicenters, and aggregating them out does a disservice to the people inside of one as well as any conclusions we might try to draw.
> And I think it will IF we keep vigilant and keep current preventive measures in place. We don’t need all out shutdowns. But things like wearing masks, avoiding large indoor gatherings, etc
We will be performing a grand experiment on indoor gatherings in a month when children in some counties return to school. A month or two into that adventure will tell us with great clarity if children can spread the virus or not. I hope not, but am not optimistic.
> At this point, we are going to need months of these things, not weeks.
Indeed. I suppose the trick is figuring out if we have the appetite for 90 straight days of 250 Floridians dying vs shutting down again. Maybe. I do kind of wonder how our biggest draw and money maker, tourism, will flourish in that environment. How many snowbirds from New York or Canada will be travelling to Miami this summer if our rates remain constant through the autumn?
Your tone is rational, but no doubt, had someone six months ago told us that the normal for Florida would be several months of 250+ deaths/daily from corona virus, we’d have thought that was the worst case scenario. Instead, it seems like the best case scenario. This makes me sad.
Well, I may be optimistic in saying a *decline* in new cases is real. But hospitalizations and the positivity rate both seem to have plateaued as well, so I think at least that the plateau is real. But maybe more a plateau than a decline. Basically, we are doing the bare minimum right now that we need to prevent a larger disaster.
And I am concerned about the decline in testing. Taking a 7 day moving average of tests per day, it peaked on 7/17 @ 65,592 per day, and has now fallen to 50,207 over the past 7 days. I realize today’s low testing number was likely already impacted by suspending some testing due to the approaching hurricane, but even before that the 7-day average had fallen to low 50-thousands.
But bottom line, since 6/1 in FL, using 7-day averages:
1. New cases have increased over 13x, but some of that is due to testing also increasing 2.65x. Adjusting for that, actual new cases likely still increased over 5x.
2. The positivity rate increased over 5x.
3. Net new hospitalizations increased over 4x.
4. Deaths increased 5.6x.
Which is to say, deaths lag, but by now, deaths have caught up with everything else. Deaths don’t NEED to go any higher.
For them to come down below 200/day again though, I think we will still need more testing, not less, and need better efforts at contact tracing, etc.
Tallahassee Reports took down number of daily hospitalizations. Replaced with moving average of current hospitalizations.
WHY??
…with deaths at ~250 per day and admissions at 500 day the total number currently hospitalized will start to look better that daily hospitalizations as the death rate continues to skyrocket.
The state started reporting current hospitalizations on July 10th. This takes the guessing out of how many people are actually in the hospital for COVID by taking into consideration those who check-out and those who enter.. We view this as an upgrade to the data we provide.
Fine but is it just me or is there no 7-day moving average as stated in the graph’s title?
Being patience (we have none)
Having a plan (we still don’t have)
There is no silver bullet….at first even with a vaccine we will still have some community transmission). Keep people afloat…not wallstreet…minimize the deaths and the long term debilitating conditions by getting the case numbers down to a small enough number that we can ring fence the outbreaks. Other countries have done it. They still have outbreaks, but the number is small enough to deal with it….We want to come out the other side where deaths and illness were minimized and confidence in our ability to collectively respond restored.
Why did you change format for reporting hospitalization data? This has been my go-to website for consistency and accuracy.
The state started reporting current hospitalizations on July 10th. This takes the guessing out of how many people are actually in the hospital for COVID by taking into consideration those who check-out and those who enter. We view this as an upgrade to the data we provide.
Average life expectancy of an American, 78.54 years. Average age of death from COVID-19 complications, 78. This is probably why the total number of deaths in Florida, from all causes, is in pretty good alignment with previous years. Last full year this was recorded it was 203,636 deaths. So far this year, more than halfway into it, we’re at 110,421 in Florida. That certainly seems to be proportional and not a big net increase. Maybe because most of the people dying from COVID were already at risk and were not going to live much longer anyway – 78 vs 78.54. Nothing political here, just data from the CDC.
Ah, Terry. ‘Scuse me. You are dispensing logic and common sense into a political cluster. 🙂
Unbelievable. How many times has the President said he wanted to do something at the Nationwide level during this pandemic and there’s been vehement push back from the Senators/Reps and/or Governors. First it was the China travel ban that was labeled Xenophobic, and Pelosi even introduced legislation stating Trump didn’t have the power to do so. Then again when he said he had the sole power as President to restart the economy. Again, strong pushback from the Governors saying they alone have the power to choose their own State’s destiny. Now Trump is at fault for not instituting a Nationwide mask mandate? Really? The hypocrisy is so thick you can cut it with a butter knife. Look at Europe, did they get out of this mess because every Country required masks? Look it up, very few actually did, and overall there is hardly any data to differentiate the ones that did versus the ones that didn’t. Do you think New York did anything different to get better? Nope. Eventually all the most vulnerable died or were locked up like they have been in Florida. The active, healthy people all got this thing, it’s just that you will never see it on CNN’s dashboard because healthy people couldn’t get tested back in Mar/Apr. Multiple antibody studies are showing that > 25% of people in New York City got this thing and even now, the CDC director is saying 10x people have already had this thing Nationwide. The increased testing we’re doing now, for all people, is just showing what we already knew to be true. Immunity is the only sure-fire way out of this. And when the antibodies wane, as they always do over time, the T-cells remember and fight the virus vigorously if it does come back. Dr. Birx has stated as much. Science, plain and simple, not hysteria and talking points
The good news is that we appear to have peaked in Florida. The 7-day average growth rate in cases (daily new/total) peaked on July 1st (5% per day) and has now dropped so low (2.7%) that the daily new cases are even dropping in raw numbers. Hospitalizations and deaths lag a bit, so their raw numbers have just recently peaked. (I haven’t taken the time to do growth rates on those.)
The question for future breakouts that unfortunately will probably never be answered is whether the lockdowns flattened the curve or merely delayed it.
God forbid there be one place where people can calmly speak about Covid without having to hear how embarrassing this country is, and what a mess we’re in, and how we should all be afraid to go out, otherwise we deserve to die of Covid.
So much anger. You won’t find the help you need for that on an Internet forum. You can find others like you for sure; but that won’t help, it’ll just feed the beast.
Thank you!
And btw thanks for the civil discussion
I will just respond one more time. Neither of us will change their mind so it is a waste of time to try. Every time you give up individual freedoms you cede more control over your life to the government. For some people that principle is more important than any one issue, be it terrorism, economic calamity or a pandemic. You can get angry about that if you would like, but it will not change their minds. I agree with you that the President could have set a better example, but snapping his fingers and telling everyone what to do in this country would not work. The governors and the courts have shown us that many times over.
Deep State. Thanks for the info on South Korea. I lived in Asia for many years. Different laws and very, very different cultures vs the US. The people in those countries are very compliant and have a strong orientation to group benefits and rights vs individual rights. The government in those countries have much more control over a situation like this one than does the government here. You would never see someone even question government mandates in those countries, much less protest them as we have seen here. Just look at the mask debate in this thread!!
You can argue whatever you want about what should be vs what is, however in a situation like this one, it is just an apples and oranges comparison. To a lesser degree, even European countries are oriented in a similar way. You can blame the government all you want, but it is individual behaviors that are causing the cases to rise recently.
@Bob –
> The people in those countries are very compliant and have a strong orientation to group benefits and rights vs individual rights.
Indeed.
> The government in those countries have much more control over a situation like this one than does the government here.
Our government *chose* to not take control of the situation. Our President, went on TV and claimed it would all go away. Our President, openly messaged idiotic messages like ‘liberate Michigan!’ Florida and Arizona followed suit, and look where we are now. Why not invoke the defense act to produce PPE? Why wait five months to wear a damn mask? Our governor, in the face of all scientific advice and common sense, opened bars and thought he could hold a national political convention. He thought we’d beaten the virus! This was government by the dumbest, the most resolute to throw caution to the wind if it felt good in the moment. The reason that the government in other places (check out the rates in New Zealand, or Japan, or Australia) had some level of success, while we did not, is that we put people in charge who actively discarded knowledge because they thought it made them look poorly.
> Just look at the mask debate in this thread!!
This is why I am so angry. But we shouldn’t just say that this is simply individualism at play; it is being *actively wrong on the science* versus being actively correct on the science. We aren’t arguing over the correct way to pronounce tomato, and the people arguing against masks are on the wrong side of the science, the wrong side of history, and are killing people.
> You can blame the government all you want, but it is individual behaviors that are causing the cases to rise recently.
Why not blame both? What if our government set the right example instead of the wrong one? I would never argue the pandemic wouldn’t be difficult under any circumstance but we have a political party, and people who follow them, actively making it worse. Also, people going to bars, going to Disney, going to spring break. All of them are contributing.
Richard, thanks for the clarification, I think I would have figured it out, but appreciate it. I actually thought about commenting about the Vox article in my post but didn’t. But, since you brought it up, I tend not to pay attention to publications which have a narrative and publish pieces like this one, full of anecdotes, studies from China (which I don’t trust as far as I can throw them) and suppositions. Also, many complications that were found early on in this pandemic have, in many cases, already been addressed and are no longer significant issues. In this case, conclusions are also based upon what may be true about other coronaviruses. I also don’t pay attention to information from OAN, Breitbart, etc. I tend to only look at information and studies from reputable medical publications. At lease those tend to try to be more factual without cherry picking information to undergird a narrative.
In any case, people with a point of view on this subject can surely find data and stories which support their bias, it seems more so in this case than just about any disease I have seen. Again, focusing on a particular outcome desired, or set of outcomes leads to easy decisions. Looking at this situation in a holistic way makes finding real solutions much more difficult.
DeepState-whether you meant to or not, you are making my point. This is an incredibly complex situation and to focus narrowly on the problem is a straw man, regardless of where the focus lies. How to navigate these times while having the greatest possible positive outcome is the goal, and the strategy to accomplish that is anything but clear. Frankly we will not know those answers for awhile because this will be with us at least several more months.
Bob, DeepStateProvocateur seems interested only in provoking. He clearly has a secret plan to fundamentally transform the economy to one where some elites (like him and his fellow Vox’ers) decide what people really “need”, as opposed to what they only “want”. Economies like that already exist in the world. DSP is free to move to one. Sadly, people living in those economies are not free to move elsewhere.
It’s fitting that DSP would link to an article at Vox, the site for provocateurs like himself. That article might be full of helpful facts, or it might be full of fear mongering fictions. One thing which is clear about the author, Lois Parshley, is that she is entirely partisan. Nothing good about Republicans. Nothing bad about Democrats.
It is certainly true that recovery from lung diseases (e.g. pneumonia) is sometimes very slow. Parshley’s article offers no actual evidence that COVID is any worse. It is full of anecdotes and speculation, and short on actual statistics. All of the speculations are of doom.
People like you and Parshley are causing people I care about to be filled with fear and dread. That is a profoundly wicked thing to do.
@Richard –
> DeepStateProvocateur seems interested only in provoking.
Not true. I am interested in showing the intellectual bankruptcy of conservative thought in regard to COVID. I am interested in pointing out the complete embarrassment that our national, and state level response to the pandemic has been. Why? Because it is my hope, however slim, that I might convince someone to put people in charge who believe in the scientific method instead of eschew it, vote for people who can see beyond their own personal greed when policy goals are set. It is only to the people who continue to defend those actions, for whatever personal reason, that find my commentary to be provocative.
> He clearly has a secret plan to fundamentally transform the economy to one where some elites (like him and his fellow Vox’ers) decide what people really “need”, as opposed to what they only “want”.
This is probably among the dumbest ten sentences ever written on this site, and that is saying something. Yes, I have a ‘secret plan’. Yes, I want to decide what people need. You’ve uncovered my secret ruse. How very clever of you.
> It is certainly true that recovery from lung diseases (e.g. pneumonia) is sometimes very slow.
What is clear about this sentence is that, in fact, you decided not to read the article. I am shocked. I have no idea about the author of this piece, but do know it shows up quite high on google if you search for covid cardiac effects long term.
The reality on the ground is that COVID enters cells by attaching to the ACE2 protein (a reason why, by happenstance, children under ten seem to be at a lesser risk of developing symptoms, they do not express ACE2). Heart muscles, and the vascular system, all also express ACE2, which is why it is unsurprising to find that patients with COVID *also* are being found to suffer from strokes at rates far greater than expected as well as myocarditis. If you had bothered to read the article, instead of clutching your pearls over who wrote it, you may have noticed this.
Seeing how as you and Bob don’t trust VOX (Ok?), we can quite easily goto the primary literature to realize that this is not fear mongering, but rather, a dispassionate evaluation of what has been observed.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7146714/
“The 31% incidence of thrombotic complications in ICU patients with COVID-19 infections is remarkably high. ” (Dutch data)
I will not provide links to similar papers, but their titles, in order to avoid spam filters.
Venous and arterial thromboembolic complications in COVID-19 patients admitted to an academic hospital in Milan, Italy
“Thromboembolic events occurred in 28 (7.7% of closed cases; 95%CI 5.4%-11.0%), corresponding to a cumulative rate of 21% (27.6% ICU, 6.6% general ward).” (Italian data)
Large-Vessel Stroke as a Presenting Feature of Covid-19 in the Young
“We report five cases of large-vessel stroke in patients younger than 50 years of age who presented to our health system in New York City. Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection was diagnosed in all five patients.” (New York Data)
COVID-19 cardiovascular epidemiology, cellular pathogenesis, clinical manifestations and management
“COVID-19 infection has been linked to myocardial injury, leading to severe disease progression. Although incredible efforts are being done to accurately comprehend the mechanism of myocardial injury, it is prudent to expand the randomized controlled data. Cardiologists should have a high suspicion of myocardial injury secondary to COVID-19 infection so that rigorous primary and secondary prevention can be ensured to limit morbidity and mortality.” (aggregated data)
So, Richard, your assertion that what we are witnessing is simply something similar to recovering from pneumonia is at odds with hundreds of observations. These words were not written by pundits, by researchers and doctors.
> People like you and Parshley are causing people I care about to be filled with fear and dread.
People like *you* are making the pandemic ten times worse! People like you are why our response is a total embarrassment. People like you cheered when Republican leaders sued over mask mandates. People like you are going to be the reason we shut down again. You are actively increasing the timeframe when our economy will recover, whatever that will look like. When 300 Floridians are dying every single day, it is going to be because people like you decided to ignore the science and embrace flag waving ignorance because it was more important that your team look good, no matter how fleeting the illusion of victory. DeSantis doing his victory dance a few months ago, bleating about how wrong the press was is like a little boy scurrying out into the empty beach, gloating about the treasures he has found now that the ocean has receded, while the rest of the world prepared for the oncoming tsunami.
Texas and Arizona are storing bodies in refrigerated trucks, months after watching New York have to do the same thing, because of people like you. Would you like to place a bet Florida will be far behind?
You don’t want to be afraid? OK. Goto Disney World! That would do great things for the economy. Go get your haircut three times a week. Fly on an airplane. Go visit Houston, I hear they are having a bunch of bars opening up! There isn’t anything to be scared of, at least for true patriots who love their country, right?
> That is a profoundly wicked thing to do.
My irony meter is broken.
Oops. I said “you” in a reply to Bob, when I meant the DSP.
@Bob –
I do not believe I disagree with any of this.
> Frankly we will not know those answers for awhile because this will be with us at least several more months.
The thing is, it didn’t have to be this way. We could be in a much better place, *right now*, if we had anything resembling a national plan in place, but we didn’t. And we still don’t.
Have some fun and take a look at how many people have died in South Korea from Covid.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-53135626
Less than 300, in a country of 50M. What we have done, nationally, and at a state level, is a total embarrassment. We are, in a very real sense, a laughing stock of the world.
@CareAboutMiniscule –
If there is to a silver lining to this entire disaster, it may be that we come to reconsider the wisdom of an economy constructed on edifices of continuous consumption, where a full half of Americans are paycheck to paycheck and cannot afford a $400 emergency. The system we had, and have, isn’t working very well for a lot of American citizens.
The notion that because 99% of people do not die, that there are no other effects is amazingly naive. Many of those people who did not die, none the less, spent a week, or several weeks in the hospital. One wonders if the people so strenuously lamenting the cost to small businesses have factored those costs into their calculations? I kind of doubt it.
To make the notion that ‘well you didn’t die, so everything is fine’ make even less in tune with reality, we have evidence that infection can lead to medium term effects, at least, if not long term effects on the function of the lungs and hearts of the survivors.
https://www.vox.com/2020/5/8/21251899/coronavirus-long-term-effects-symptoms
Anyone telling you that the only metric that matters is if someone dies or not is woefully under informed, maybe on purpose.
If they want to have a concurrent discussion about the effects on the economy, that’s fine, but we should not let them get away with the false notion that COVID falls into the ‘whatever doesn’t kill you makes you stronger’ category. It isn’t nearly that easy and it is a gigantic strawman being propagated largely by politicians and sycophant talking heads who have led or cheered on disastrous policies, or non-policies in response to the pandemic.
Care, I sincerely hope your father stays healthy. He does not have to die at all, hopefully he will stay safe and healthy. You can certainly have the perspective of not caring about small businesses, that is your right. However, for every small business in the US, there are not only customers, as you are alluding to, but there are also owners, families of owners, suppliers, families of suppliers, and indirect recipients of proceeds that come from small businesses, including the public which benefits from taxes paid by these small business owners. To think that there is little or no impact to real people from all of these business shutdowns, not just financially, but also socially and from a public health perspective is just incredibly myopic. There are many, many implications of policies and behaviors during these times, and following one path may be a positive for a part of the population, but very possibly a significant negative for another.
And hopefully the death of professional sports. And Hollweird.
“1MM small businesses all because of a miniscule 1%. ”
So tell me, my father has to die (15-20%% mortality in his age range with preconditions) because a small business went away. What did that business provide that it wasnt needed during the shutdown? Nail salon? Restaurant? Gym?
So my father has to die so I don’t have to cut my own toenails, cook my own food, do pushups and situps on my own? I suspect that many of these businesses that are non-essential are more than that, they are superfluous and signs of a consumption-crazy me-me-me culture.
The only positive thing out of this epidemic is people realizing that their relationships with their family and friends and most important, not dining out every night or buying whatever they see.
And of course now this has started the obligatory conspiracy theories, such as the COVID vaccine will have 4 prongs—3 will be the vaccine and the 4th will install a chip. ?
Settings, Privacy, Health
Interesting…..a recent iPhone update installed a Covid tracking setting on everyone’s phone. It’s default setting is Off. Go to Settings, Health to see it. Apparently it installed on Androids as well, but I can’t verify that.
Hmm. My second post is appearing while my first is awaiting moderation. Presumably because it contains URLs. This is understandable as an effort to eliminate SPAM.
Today, the totals for Orange, Osceola, and Seminole are 104 available out of 471. So the article seems to be correct when it says hospitals have beds they can convert to ICU.
This would indicate that the number of occupied ICU beds has increased from 315 to 367 in 15 days. Unfortunately, the site does not say how many of these ICU beds are being used for COVID patients.
I forgot to mention that in order to see the full names of the hospitals, you have to download the data and view it as a spreadsheet. Annoying, but not difficult.
Here is a really helpful website for hospital regular and ICU beds in FL: https://bi.ahca.myflorida.com/t/ABICC/views/Public/ICUBedsHospital
You can click “All” to deselect all counties, and then select the counties you are interested in (e.g. Orange, Osceola, and Seminole). I found that these counties have 128 out of 443 available.
I got the site from this article:
https://www.clickorlando.com/news/local/2020/07/07/central-floridas-largest-hospitals-out-of-icu-beds-but-say-they-can-scale-up-if-covid-19-demand-increases/
The article appears to be designed to generate fear. It cites the ICUBedsHospital site, and then quotes only the frightening data on the site. I have emailed the author (nicely) and have not received a response.
I have a friend in Seattle. He said most of the small businesses have not reopened and it seems like they never will. He also finds it remarkable that a Seattle black man deliberately mowed down 2 white women protestors, killing one and seriously injuring the other, and it went largely unreported.
So, I don’t think we’ll be hearing about the horrendous economic effects of this shutdown for a while.
No one knows the answer to that question, but, last month, Mark Zandi, a well respected economist at Moody’s estimated that more than a million small businesses will close permanently from the shutdowns across the country. At some point, we will look back and know. I wonder whether it will be widely reported?
Rob, you are correct. I think there are a couple of things going on, first, I believe that the majority of the people getting the virus tend to be younger and even the hospitalized tend to be less severe than what was probably seen early on in NY. In addition, the doctors have learned a lot about how to treat patients since the early days in NY. I don’t believe that Cuomo did a great job, he made a lot of mistakes, and will not own up to them. However, he faced a really difficult situation in NY and other states have had the benefit of learning from what happened there to some degree.
BTW, a lot of publicity lately about NY and how great they are now, but don’t forget, there is a lot more than just Covid numbers to look at in judging the impact of this entire situation over the past few months. For example the Partnership for NYC, along with several global consulting firms, just released a study yesterday which estimates that one third of the almost 250,000 small businesses in NYC that closed due to Cuomo and DeBlasio policies, will never reopen. Think about how many lives have been impacted by these policies. You can debate pros and cons of the policies, but just don’t forget that shutting down to stop the virus spread has had other devastating consequences as well. It is easy to argue for one side or another, but this is a no win situation. The media tends to overplay one side, and underplay the other for whatever reason.
1/3rd of small businesses (the backbone of our economy) in NYC will stay closed! How many others across US? All for a flu virus (WuFlu) that has 10% penetration for positive cases and out that 10%, there is a 98.5% recovery rate. Yet, we continue to punish the innocent, healthy, 99% for the deaths of the tiny, miniscule minority. Don’t you dare tell me this isn’t political. It’s 100% propaganda.
After NYS started reported daily new cases of 9,000 or more, within a week the daily death rate began to hit 800 to 1,000 per day. Nothing like that seen in FL. Clearly something else is happening here.
There was very little testing in NY at the time. You can see hospitalization rates to “cases” in NY vs. FL.
So all other things being equal, you can expect a delayed effect in Florida.
(of course, it may well be that other things aren’t equal.)
Deaths were 87 back on April 26th and 90 yesterday.
Is that an alarming trend?
Florida has 21.48 million people.
The hospitalizations have also not increased proportionate to the reported cases.
Only 292 Hospitalizations yesterday? May 21 there was 265.
Again the trend is not alarming.
Those numbers out of 21.48 million residents are no more alarming than any flu season.
Open Schools Now.
Democrats are insane and harming children more than COVID.
Cherry-picking single days and comparing them against each other is not how you measure “trends”.
But there are trend lines in the charts, so I’m guessing you know that already.
You are obviously comparing peaks to troughs. The trough in hospitalizations that week of May 21 came four days later, on the 25th, with 43. A trough of 292 is more than 6 times as high. By any reasonable measure of the trend, hospitalizations have tripled in the last month alone. And as a result, many hospitals are nearing capacity, the point at which deaths rates will start to increase due to a lack of ability to treat everyone.
The good news is that new cases do appear to have peaked already, around 7/12. And hospitalizations only lag new cases by a couple of weeks at most, so there’s a good chance they will be peaking now, before we have any major problems. But that is only because of the agressive actions that were taken in FL at both the state and county levels by the end of June. Governor DeSantis shut down the bars again on 6/26, for example.
It is abundantly clear that when protective measures have been in place, we have been able to keep the reproduction rate of the virus below 1. It seems to have been only slightly below 1, and thus these measures may need to be in place for roughly the next 5 months.
But allowing the reproduction rate to go above one again, as it did after we lifted many protective measures in May, would lead to uncontained spread, and eventually tens of thousands of deaths in FL, and very posibly over 1 million nationally. There’s a good chance we will have a vacine within 6 months. Lets not get careless now.
Thank you Steve! Are these graphs adjusted for the 55 labs that were over reporting positives? Are these deaths DUE TO the virus or did the patients die of something else but HAD the virus? How many of these positives were due to repeat testing? All these questions need to be answered by DOH. They’re scaring people for no reason.
Mildly good news is that Florida has still not had one day whether there were 100 deaths based upon the actual date of death. The Florida DOH dashboard is being updated retroactively and generally the amount of daily deaths is pretty consistent, and you don’t see these huge swings up an down that are being reported on other sites. Really glad to see our Governor talk today about putting these case numbers in proper perspective. The reality is that states like New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, and Massachusetts are only showing a fraction of the total cases they actually experienced given the limited testing and restrictions that were in place in April/May. This also skews their case mortality rate higher. There have been a few antibody studies in New York, and one of them from late April showed that as many as 2.7M people were infected.
Tara,
No one should “gloat.” But there should be accountability. If government leaders make bad decisions and bad things happen as a result, shouldn’t there be some degree of recognition – or blame?
Mike, there’s a virus. We don’t really know when it got here. It kills some, hospitalizes some, makes some feel varying degrees of illness. Who here can say that someone should be blamed? That does nothing but cause divisiveness at a time when we should be trying to work together.
It’s difficult enough during these stressful times to deal with everything that’s going on without trying to figure out who we can dump blame on. To me, that is not only meaningless, but also a waste of energy that could be better used elsewhere.
Apologies, this site shows 156 for July 16, but you get my drift. So, the dashboard spread those 156 deaths across the actual dates of death.
Keith, I think the dashboard is by date of death, this site is by date reported. So, the dashboard modifies previous days’ number of deaths.
For example, this site shows 128 deaths for July 16. That is how many deaths were determined to be COVID deaths and were reported on July 16, regardless of actual date of death.
The dashboard currently shows 18 for July 16, because that’s how many, so far, have been reported as having date of death July 16. The dashboard number will change as deaths that actually occurred on July 16 are reported.
Thanks for the explanation. That makes sense. I like to reference both sites and couldn’t reconcile the difference in the data points.
Why is there a big difference between the number of deaths posted here compared to the Florida DOH dashboard?
Why are the number of COVID-19 deaths reported on this site vastly different from what is posted on the Florida DOH dashboard? https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/96dd742462124fa0b38ddedb9b25e429
Is there different data source?
The data for the charts are from the data in the table at the link below. This data comes from the DOH Dashboard.
https://tallahasseereports.com/2020/07/13/leon-county-florida-covid-19-numbers-updated-april-13th/
Wear your mask whether you agree or not. You will help reduce the anxiety of the petrified many. Masks and social distancing may be just one of a couple variables. IMHO this information should be getting a lot more attention: https://news.harvard.edu/gazette/story/2020/06/air-conditioning-may-be-factor-in-covid-19-spread-in-the-south/
Any lapse in getting data may be due to the White House directing hospitals to send their data directly to the HHS (The Department of Health and Human Services) and bypass the CDC. The HHS has a new system that is supposed to be better at collecting and analyzing data but will take some time to get up and running. No one knows what the immediate impact of this change will be but it will certainly slow down the flow of data in the near future. There are lots of articles out there on it.
@Gary –
Seems likely the impact will be we will be seeing less cases, fewer hospitalizations, and fewer deaths. The system works.
The information on this page comes from the public reports issued by the Florida Department of Health. The changes in reporting to the CDC and HHS will not affect the information provided by the FDOH.
Hey where are those who did not believe that hospitalization and death would not spike like a couple of weeks ago?
We are all still here wondering why there are so many pansy-assed people trying to act so tough — like you BigZero.
BigZ, you mean those that HOPED hospitalizations and deaths would not spike.
When you post something like that, it comes across as you hoping for hospitalizations and deaths so that you could gloat, although I am sure that was not your intention.
Why no update to this report today? I believe this is the first day this has not been updated since this report started.
Artie you have your opinion and I have mine. Let’s just leave it at that. I am responsible for my health.
Yes, I was joking with my mask comment. I forget that the written word comes off harsher than the spoken word.
The positive test numbers in Florida ARE INFLATED:
https://www.breitbart.com/health/2020/07/14/fox-35-investigation-reveals-inflated-florida-covid-19-numbers/
Some people need to be charged with Terrorism and thrown in jail immediately.
So the percent positive may be off, I will concede for the sake of argument even though your source is biased. But that does not effect the fact that cases, deaths and hospitalizations are soaring. The terrorists are the people who do not wear masks.
What I don’t understand is if you’re wearing a mask what difference does it make if I’m not? If a man is using the typical form of over the counter birth control during intercourse with a woman, she doesn’t need birth control. Right? Why not let the people who want to wear condom/masks, wear them. And those don’t, won’t bother you b/c you’re masked.
Uh, no, actually, people who really don’t want a pregnancy frequently use 2 forms of contraceptives, because of the possibility of failure. It’s a very poor metaphor for mask usage, for myriad additional reasons as well.
Because masks are more effective at preventing someone who has it from spreading it than they are at preventing someone who doesn’t have it from catching it.
Thank you. My point is if you have it and wear a mask, or if I have it and you wear a mask and I don’t., how does that harm you?
Masks are much better at preventing sick people from spreading the virus than they are at preventing healthy people from becoming sick.
If you are sick and don’t wear a mask, you spread the virus through your respiratory droplets when you breath or talk. Anyone near you then breathes in these droplets and can become infected (even if they are wearing a mask as the masks are far less effective at preventing the wearer from being infected). If you’re in a grocery store or restaurant, these virus loaded droplets you are breathing out land on surfaces and food for other people to touch and potentially become infected. In air-conditioned spaces, the very small droplets can be circulated by the A/C system.
If you are sick and do wear a mask, most of those respiratory droplets get caught in your mask, and those that do escape don’t travel nearly as far (put on a mask and try to blow out a candle), significantly reducing the probability of spreading the virus to another person.
The reason masks are so important with this virus is that many people are spreading the virus without knowing they have it (either pre-symptomatic or asymptomatic).
In the USA, there are approximately 30 people killed per day in drunk driving accidents, but there are laws against drinking and driving because it is often innocent people who are killed. Yesterday there were 963 COVID-19 deaths in the USA, many of which could have been prevented if everyone wore masks (especially in indoor public places).
Please see today’s July 16 Sun Sentinel articles “Florida”s Hidden Data Skews Tests” “Experts say the state could be underreporting positivity rates” A second article in the same issue reports on the labs posting 100%.but it seems those reports are for contact tracing and negative results are also reported. However the second article does give some credence to Pingback’s comment. However the other article makes a case for under reporting the ratio. The bottom line is 300,000 cases in Florida would put us in the top 10 countries if Florida was a country. So lets get out of the weeds and see the elephant in the room. 300,000 cases
“I think mask (and distance) mandates are working in New England and NY.”
Another possible reason for lower infection and death rates in New England and NY is that these states may have achieved some level of herd immunity and have killed off most of the most vulnerable.
I, like Bob, mask and distance because it is very likely that these actions decrease the probability of infection of myself and others. Also, like Bob, I don’t see anyone not doing the same.
I think Tara was joking.
Berating store employees over something as trivial as having to wear a mask is never acceptable.
Impatience with the messiness of ordinary human existence is the mark of the true totalitarian.
Does anyone know why the death numbers are so much higher than those reported on the Florida DOH website? https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/8d0de33f260d444c852a615dc7837c86
For example, at the Florida website, the number of Florida resident deaths reported has not been above 82 (“Deaths by Date”), while the above shows deaths by date often greater than 100.
Seems like that other site is showing the date the death occurred on, revising history as new deaths are reported. (“Death data often has significant delays in reporting, so data within the past two weeks will be updated frequently.”)
This one appears to not revise history and shows all new reported deaths on the date they are reported.
I agree Artie, this is a complicated issue and can be argued from both sides very easily. With individual rights come individual responsibility. Where you draw the line between the rights of an individual and those of others is in the eye of the beholder. Mandating masks does nothing, it cannot be enforced. As I said, I wear a mask when I leave the house, and I steer clear of those who do not.
Bob, maybe mask mandates do work, and maybe they don’t. I think mask (and distance) mandates are working in New England and NY. Most people seem to “follow the rules” even if they don’t like them. The person that I mentioned in CT was an exception. Our numbers are great, and people are out doing quite a bit in public – they’re just (mostly) doing it safely.
Look at Texas. They had runaway daily increases in hospitalizations. The Governor implemented a mask mandate, shut down bars and reduced restaurant capacity on July 2nd. A week later their hospitalizations started flattening. They were adding 300-600 net hospitalizations per day, and since July 10th they’ve completely flattened the number of people hospitalized. Cause and effect? Maybe. It’s certainly encouraging data.
Artie, you are, of course, entitled to your opinion. By now most people have formed their opinions and biases about covid 19 and are unlikely to be persuaded to change them. Snarky posts tend to harden views rather than change them. I hope your relatives stay safe and healthy.
Bob, of course you’re right that my comment was snarky and perhaps overdone. What really set me off were:1) Tara’s comment about only wearing a mask to protect herself from “Masked Marauders,” as if the people ignoring masks and risking further spread are somehow the “real” victims of this virus; coupled with, 2) my own observation of an unmasked person in a store Sunday, berating store employees who had the nerve to ask him to wear a mask inside the store because it’s a state mandate. Yelling obscenities about lost freedom at a store employee in a grocery store who is simply asking people to follow a public health mandate is the lowest behavior I’ve directly observed in a while. That stuff even happens in here in liberal Connecticut (though the unmasked person had Trump stickers all over his truck).
I do take some umbrage with your comment about individual freedom as it pertains to simple steps that can – and should – be taken by everyone to save lives. The people who catch this virus (and in some cases die) because of other peoples’ irresponsible behavior have rights too.
I get it now. The people shunning masks and disregarding reasonable physical distancing during a pandemic aren’t irresponsible, they’re freedom fighters battling for liberty. The liberty to freely risk other peoples’ health and lives. A liberty that’s as American as apple pie and baseball. I think we should all spread the word to those who have lost loved ones to COVID-19. Their loved ones weren’t victims, they were martyrs for freedom and liberty. I have several family members living in Florida, many of whom are over the age of 60. They’ll be thrilled to know that the unmasked people breathing down their necks in public places during a pandemic are fighting for their freedom.
Or, maybe there’s a reason why the Declaration of Independence lists “life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness” in a particular order. Maybe that reason is why there are laws that limit certain individual individual liberties to protect the lives of others (speed limits, limits on smoking on public, drunk driving, etc.).
Artie, see my post above. “Everybody” I see in my little nook of Florida is wearing a mask. I think it’s stupid but I wear one. Who/where are your “freedom fighters”? I was in a chain drugstore today and a construction guy came in. No mask. He was hot and dirty, sweaty from huge construction job at the hospital next door. I had my mask on. I envied him. I left to go to my car and a little old lady, maybe 85 lbs, was walking to her car wearing a mask, smoking a ciggy. But I still had my mask on so her wake of 2nd hand smoke saved my life.
Pitt, I wasn’t responding to you in my comment. While you and I have very different views on how real this pandemic is, I respect that you wear the mask even though you don’t believe it’s necessary. No debate on the smoking and second had smoke. Fortunately the smokers that I know are very conscious of not smoking in close proximity to non-smokers.
And these are also cases where people did not drop dead upon diagnosis, but before.
I wear a mask mainly because I’m afraid of getting shot by a Masked Marauder if I don’t and then I will be one more coronavirus victim.
Below is a clip from my local paper. This is why we cannot presume to understand anything about lag time.
**********
In some cases, a victim died before the COVID-19 test results could be confirmed. Here’s info about the five latest deaths:
• a 73-year-old male whose case was not travel-related, it is unknown whether he had contact with a known case. His case was confirmed June 23.
• a 60-year-old male whose case was not travel-related. He had contact with a known case, and his case was confirmed July 10.
• a 70-year-old male whose case was not travel-related, it is unknown whether he had contact with a known case. His case was confirmed July 10.
• a 90-year-old female whose case was not travel-related. She had contact with a known case. Her case was confirmed July 11.
• a 92-year-old male whose case was not travel-related. It is unknown whether he had contact with a known case. His case was confirmed July 11.
**********************
Of course they don’t identify which ones died BEFORE positives confirmations, but we could guess it’s the 2 from July 10 and 2 from July 11 cases.
At any rate, here we have 4 of the 5 cases confirmed on or after July 10, and counted as deaths on July 14.
I wear a mask when I go out. Unlike some however, I don’t believe that I am morally superior to those who choose not to wear them. I feel fortunate every day that I live in a country in which individual freedoms still mean something.
It is sad that so much commentary revolves around dems and reps and so much about this “They” that are providing false data. It is not about reps and dems, it is about “me” and “we”. The “me” are those who deny the scope of the problem, and justify not taking the simple measures to slow things down, mask and distancing.The “We” are those who wear a mask to protect others, like the people at check-out counters. The We are people who say, I might not know how bad this is or is going to be but out of love and compassion I will sacrifice a bit be a soldier against the Covid. The “me” talk about rights (though this was all tested when smoking regulations to protect your fellow workers came into place) and the “we” talk about responsibility. Of late the vast majority of both Rep and Dem senators and governors have asked us to be “we”. It is now mostly bi-partisan. So many of the comments speak to all that we do not know, but what we do know is that masks and distancing help. Be a lover not a fighter.
Who’s a fighter? I keep reading about these selfish renegades who love themselves more than the checkout gal/guy at Publix, Home Depot, etc. I must be living in an alternative universe. 99% are following orders. When I point this out someone always, “OK, but we need 100%!”. Give me a break. If this is that big of a deal to you, stay home. I think this is a plannedemic, hyped to hurt Trump and no amount of “love” can change me. I wear a mask where I’m supposed to but I have no problem telling the emperor he is naked. Virtually everyone is following orders. Does that mean I’m a “me” or a “we”? Who cares? Local news station had a story that different testing centers were only reporting positive test results. Misleading at best. Fauci says masks no good, then good. Hydrochloriblah blah blah, good, bad, good. If you want to eat it up, go for it. I’ll continue to protest.
Good post Tara, if we have learned anything it is that predicting what will happen with this virus is a fool’s game. Predictions, even those made by experts, have been wrong at least as often as they have been right.
No one thinks people die upon diagnosis. No one can say that upcoming deaths could have been prevented. I know an 85-year-old who got Covid when visiting a hospital for an outpatient procedure, which was the first and only time in 3 1/2 months that she left the house. I know another who was huge into mask-wearing, social distancing, and refusing to go to restaurants, gyms, parks, everything except work and home. Luckily, in both cases, it was mild.
Obviously, those looking at past numbers and comparing them to Florida are doing so for comfort and hope that this thing will go away soon.
No one knows so much about this virus that they are in a position to pass judgements of guilty verdicts on anyone. It will take many months of study to truly understand what happened here, how long it was here, how the virus may or may not be mutating, and how best to deal with it. We still don’t know what will happen over the next months throughout the country and world.
I’m amazed at how many people seem to think that people drop dead of Covid-19 immediately upon diagnosis. Deaths typically follow infection by 3-5 weeks. Florida has hopefully reached the apex of infections. The death toll form this surge in cases won’t be evident for several weeks. Anyone looking at NY, NJ, CT, etc. back in April, and using that as evidence that cases and deaths peak at around the same time are wrong. The fact is that there was almost no testing available in those areas in March and early April, and most cases went uncounted. I know from experience. I had symptoms, but couldn’t get tested because I wasn’t sick enough to be hospitalized. I was just told to quarantine in place, and was never counted. Actual infections peaked in late March in those areas, and deaths peaked in April. Hopefully the improved treatment protocols will keep death rates a lot lower than they were earlier in the pandemic, but even if they do you are still probably going to see multiple days with > 100 deaths per day. It’s really sad, and was preventable with common sense and responsibility.
Deaths are a lagging indicator. New cases are a leading indicator. Deaths don’t increase the spread of the disease. New cases do. For anyone interested in preventing a pandemic, new cases are the number to watch.
And as for hospitalizations, the graphs above show they have doubled in FL in just the last 3 weeks. Many counties are now starting to see ICUs getting near to capacity.
I realize wearing masks is inconvenient, but it’s a hell of a lot more convenient than shutting down businesses and schools. And about equally effective. Too many state governments have been doing heavy handed and inefficient things like complete shutdowns, because they feel they don’t have any other options. Nearly all states are required to balance budgets. They can’t afford what else they need to do.
What we should be doing more of, is testing, tracing, wearing masks, quarantines, setting up separate treatment facilities for milder cases to isolate them and prevent them from infecting others, making good data available promptly so that people can choose for themselves to avoid areas of recent outbreaks or to self-trace and self-quarantine if they believe they have been exposed, etc.
Pretty Petty-to answer your question, those protests were held before the Governor announced the phased reopening-which happened on April 29. Not only were there few actual protests and protesters, but that was over two months ago. Our cases began to rise on June 10, roughly six weeks after the protests you are referencing. If you think that had a significant impact on cases after six weeks, so be it, but I doubt it.
To be fair, I don’t believe that other protests had a significant impact on cases either. I just don’t believe that transmission outdoors is a major driver of virus spread.
Jerry Z, youre spot on correct that deaths are a better indicator than new cases.
FL is 6% of US population, BUT only 3% of US Covid19 deaths.
The recent surge in new cases has not been paralleled by the rise in new deaths,
as was the case in April with the peaks in NY and the US as a whole.
The peak for FL cases is close, and theres no reason to not anticipate the
decline in deaths to follow the NY and US declines, vs some experts
who predicted massive surges of deaths in FL, post the FL cases peak.
To put all this data into a more understandable form, let me offer the following. The only real numbers of significance are the number of people requiring hospitalization due to the Coronavirus and how many people die from the virus. All other reported data is intended as a scare tactic perhaps founded on a political agenda.
Based on current data as of 7/11/20, you have a 1 in 5,118 chance of dying from the virus if you are a Florida resident. Of course, a lot depends on the county you live in. For instance, I live in Leon County in Tallahassee. I have a 1 in 4,976 chance of catching the virus and only a one in 36,698 chance of dying as a result of the virus. With those odds, if you’re feeling lucky go out and live your life. If not, crawl back into your cave and wait for some politician to issue the all-clear notice. Best of luck with your choice.
Your numbers are misleading and we would all prefer you not cause the death of someone who makes a decision based on your post.
Comparing the death rate to the entire population of unaffected people has nothing to do with this. The point is that the death rate of infected people varies by age and underlying symptoms. An elderly or vulnerable person might have a 10% chance of dying if infected.
With your implied approach, we will have 100% infection which could result in 10% of the elderly and vulnerable dying.
The useful number is to look at the mortality rate, which is 15% of those hospitalized, and the hospitalization rate, which is 2-4% of the positive cases from a week ago. Hence the chances of dying IF YOU ARE INFECTED, are an average .3-.6% , or about 1 in 200.
For everyone arguing against simple safety precautions — you are basicly arguing for people to risk OTHER PEOPLE’s lives. I realize that this falls on deaf ears for the most part, because to argue against safety means that you either have no conscience or cognitive dissonance is working to protect your ego.
Leon County has about 293,000 residents of all ages currently living their lives in whatever manner they choose. Some staying in while others are out and about. All are susceptible to catching the virus depending on how they either practice or ignore the recommended safety precautions. Some will catch the virus and may require hospitalization if the symptoms become sever enough. My number simply, and understandably, indicates the odds of being one of those county residents that may require hospitalization.
Similarly, the number I indicated shows the odds of possibly dying as a result of contracting the virus if you are a Leon County resident. I think people identify better with knowing their odds of something as opposed to a lot of the confusing jargon and data we are flooded with each day.
As for what people decide to do with the information I presented, my initial statement says it all. “With those odds, if you’re feeling lucky go out and live your life. If not, crawl back into your cave and wait for some politician to issue the all-clear notice.”
What people choose to do with any data or information they see is up to them. That’s true of all decisions during these very unusual times. Should I send my kids to school? Should I go to that eat-in restaurant? Should I wear a mast? All very difficult decisions. People are free to use anything they read or hear to help them decide. In the end, the choice is always up to them.
Here’s another reality to give some thought to. To date Leon County has 13 deaths from COVID-19 and 15 from shootings. One out of every 22,500 residents die from COVID-19 while 1 out of every 19,500 are shot and killed.
Sorry Jerry, your numbers indicate the odds of having been one of those who has already contracted, been hospitalized, or died of Covid-19. Not your odds of catching, being hospitalized, or dying of Covid-19.
By your logic, back on March 20th, there had been 4 confirmed cases and 1 death in Leon County. Its pretty obvious that the probability of contracting Covid-19 was way higher than 1:73250 as if that were the case, there would still only be 4 total cases and 1 death in Leon County.
The probability of you catching Covid-19 changes with the number of people currently infected, the precautions you take, and the precautions those around you take. It significantly higher than the statistics you provided. If you don’t take precautions, the risk of catching Covid-19 is going to be similar to that of you catching a cold. Of those who catch it, ~1.5% (or 1 in 66.7) will die (based on current statistics). Your risk factors will increase or decrease the probability of you being one of the unfortunate statistics.
TerryF, your numbers and analysis, along with those from SaveLives are probably absolutely correct. No argument there. However, I’m not referring to the odds or probability of CATCHING the virus. I’m only referring to two very simple to understand numbers: people currently in the hospital as a result of COVID-19 and how many died.
The vast array of numbers and statistical jargon that is flooding the news media is very confusing to a lot of ordinary people. They need something simple and understandable to help them make the decisions I previously mentioned. That’s why I offered a more simplified approach to making some sense out of the data they’ve been seeing for months.
Whether we like it or not, we have to accept the reality that the virus will continue to spread. That’s what viruses do and have always done; they spread. We can do things to help minimize the spread but that will not totally stop it from spreading. Until we have a vaccine, strengthen our immune systems or this virus dies out on its own, everyone is susceptible to catching the virus one way or another. Some people will not even know they had the virus, some will get sick enough to be hospitalized and yes, sadly some will die. That’s no different than any other virus we’ve had over the years. Nothing new here.
The fear a lot of people have is, will I get so sick I may end-up in the hospital and possibly die? That’s why I suggested watching only those two simple, understandable numbers. Watching those numbers gives the average person a simple indicator of how things are going with the COVID-19.
Currently Leon County has 76 hospitalized with the virus, down from 83 reported on 7/20. Out of the 293,000 county residents, that’s about 1 out of 3,800. Simple to comprehend.
Similarly, 14 people in Leon County have died from the virus compared to 11 back on 7/20. That’s 1 out of every 21,000 residents. Again, some simple numbers the average person can easily understand.
I’ve always subscribed to the philosophy of “keep it simple.” When big numbers and massive amounts of data are presented day after day, people’s eyes begin to glass over and you lose the message you were trying to convey.
Hopefully my very simplistic method of trying to get a feel for how things are going will help some people with their decisions. They can take or leave it. Their choice. My intend was nothing more or nothing less.
Too many to read through, but I am wondering if anyone has addressed the fact that the surge started approximately two weeks after the protests?
Which protest? The FIRST protest was the “fine” folks who rushed government building with automatic weapons demanding we open hair salons and gyms and bars. Is that the protest you’re referring to? Lemme guess, they didnt cause any surge.
Barbara, I am laughing on the floor about voting Trump out to save our democracy(which is actually a constitutional republic). If Trump is NOT reelected, we will surely lose more of our constitutional rights, and be more like Seattle and Minnesota-and then Venezuela, and then China. That is not a picture I want to actually have in my life. Just look at who is running the democratic (socialist) party. Defunding the police is not a good platform. Eliminating all fossil fuels immediately is not a good issue to run on. Eliminating the 1st and 2nd amendment, are not good issues to run on. Medicare for all is not a good issue to run on. Another, at least, $45,000,000,000,000 in debt from all of these polices is not a good issue to run on. If Trump is not reelected, and republicans do not retain at least one side of Congress, that is exactly what we will get. Why you would support that makes me think that your thought process is like that of a pillick. In addition, I am not a sheeple, and will not wear a mask, unless unconstitutionally required to wear one, unless I am around a fragile person. Science has spoken on this.
Gerald many of your questions are spot on. This is a very complicated situation and focusing on case numbers and even death numbers and then proclaiming a politician bad or good is a fallacy. This is such a complicated situation and a perfect example of oversimplifying things based upon the narrative we happen to believe. Whatever policy decisions are made, they will have positive effects and negative effects, some of which are easy to measure and many of which are not. Some effects are impossible to measure, but they include not only Covid 19 but our lives beyond the virus. Yet, we continue to have people come onto this thread, point to one or two numbers, and bash politicians for their results. I will bet that in most, if not all cases, the bashing stems from thoughts people had about these politicians long before Covid 19. I just pray that therapeutics and, even better, some kind of vaccine is produced sooner rather than later.
I think you are living a perfect state for your needs.
The data is truly confusing. The discussion is scary. The polarization is really frightening. Some questions. 1. How do we measure deaths? How do other countries? I get the impression that if, in the US, Covid 19 was present when the person died then it is blamed. Do other countries use this standard? We insist on comparing ourselves with them. Are the data comparable? 2. How do the deaths from all causes this year compare with previous years. Is this too hot a potato for anyone to mention? 3. How do the deaths from other causes compare with other years? I know that cancer and heart disease are much more deadly. How are we doing with stress related issues like murder and suicide? Are these rates increasing or decreasing? Can we say anything about how our obsession with C19 affects the rest of our society? Our deaths from other causes? 4. It seems to me that the more we test the more cases we can report. If we did no public testing then our “C19” rate would be much less. What is wrong with this logic? No other country has the degree of obsession with testing that we do. yet we insist in comparing our results with theirs. 5. From what I can see the data were are fed is garbage. Methods and assumptions change daily. We are being told to make decisions based on a very slippery slope.
Regarding your #2. Not too hot a potato at all. Many have examined this. This is from JAMA Internal Medicine, July 1 2020 (https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamainternalmedicine/fullarticle/2767980)
Question: Did more all-cause deaths occur during the first months of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic in the United States compared with the same months during previous years?
Findings: In this cohort study, the number of deaths due to any cause increased by approximately 122?000 from March 1 to May 30, 2020, which is 28% higher than the reported number of COVID-19 deaths.
Meaning: Official tallies of deaths due to COVID-19 underestimate the full increase in deaths associated with the pandemic in many states.
“How do the deaths from all causes this year compare with previous years. Is this too hot a potato for anyone to mention? ”
The CDC has a good site for making this comparison:
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/COVID19/index.htm
It’s in table 1, the column “percent of expected deaths”. Note that it takes at least a month for deaths to be near to completely reported, so you can only do useful comparisons right now through about 5/30. Data for recent weeks ALWAYS shows death below expected, because they simply haven’t been recorded yet.
When I last looked at this data on 7/8, I calculated that for 3/15-5/30 (11 weeks), there were 723,347 deaths from all causes reported, vs. 595,810 estimated expected deaths, so 127,537 deaths over expected, with 103,562 listed as COVID related for those weeks. So almost 24,000 additional deaths beyond those officially attributed to COVID.
“No other country has the degree of obsession with testing that we do”
We need more testing because we have more cases, and higher infection rates. Most other countries responded earlier and more aggressively. And putting even weak mesures in place EARLY, was more effective than aggressive measures LATE. Every country which was both aggressive and early has already beat this thing.
https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2020-swift-covid-19-lockdowns-more-effective/
Well, if we’d just “slow the testing down” it’d go away. Right? Go “close to zero”. Right?
I’m SO GLAD I came back to live in MA! We have a republican gov. who is smart and cares about us and has been slowly opening us up again. I’ve a daughter who is an ICU nurse at MGH who cared for the covid-19 patients during our surge here- and had to reuse her mask over and over because the Feds. confiscated the PPE our Gov bought and had shipped. I will die early because of the stress of the horror I have felt for my daughter and all on the front line putting their very lives at risk- knowing our President was actually UNDERMINING their ability to be safe! I couldn’t sleep for weeks until we in MA were able to finally get out own. Covid-19 is REAL and it’s HORRIBLE! Dying is NOT THE WORST IT CAN DO TO YOU!
WEAR YOU MASK ANYTIME YOU ARE OUT OF YOUR HOUSE or CAR!
The researchers have learned that this is a disease that rides and hangs in the air like cigarette smoke- indoors and out!
Think about it!
Please stay safe friends, no matter who you vote for (But-PLEASE PLEASE vote “him” out to save our democracy!!!) . My humble opinion.
Massachusetts: 1,206 deaths per million
Florida: 198 deaths per million
I agree with you about masks. It’s very likely they reduce the probability that you will infect or be infected.
Steven, thanks for trying to continue the rational discussions. Unfortunately this place has once again slid into silliness, attacks and trolling to a great degree. Please continue to bring rational, objective perspectives, as a few others continue to try to do.
@DeepStateProvocateur
Regarding these comments you made to @Pete
*****
Tara may not have said that about masks per se, but her attitude is consistent with one wherein the problem is the media narrative, as opposed to the real impacts the virus is having on people. The media has plenty of problems, but it isn’t going to put my mother in law in the ICU.
I’ve been accused of being mean spirited, vitriolic, and others on this thread, but the reeality is I am downright angry at people gleefully taking steps that put the health of anyone in society at risk.
*****
No one on this thread has called you mean spirited or vitriolic. I said Pete’s post was mean-spirited, and I said Twitter is filled with vitriol.
Are you Pete replying to your own post? Oh what a tangled web we weave…
@Tara –
I didn’t say you had accused me of those things, but others have. As well as worse. That’s OK though.
Since you mentioned previously that you hadn’t seen footage of refrigerated trucks for body storage in New York, here is an article about Houston getting some, seeing how as they are running out of space. It is important to note that when NYC had these needs, *they had already been in shutdown for two weeks*.
https://www.texastribune.org/2020/07/10/texas-coronavirus-deaths-morgues-capacity/
I am not Pete.
Thank goodness we finally have some data experts willing to go through Florida dat and help us understand the narrative. See Josh Freidlander analysis at this link. Of the 200 deaths reported the past two days only 10 or so were in July. They slow reporting system is creating the panic narrative.
https://twitter.com/joshfriedlander/status/1281720000999575552?s=21
Trump’s lapdog has destroyed Florida’s public health and economy by failing to provide the leadership NY’s Governor provided.
Innumerate troll.
New York deaths 32,000; Population 19 million
Florida deaths 4100; Population 21 million
So, John, are you saying the governor with the highest deaths win? Did Cuomo “save” NY economy by seeding nursing homes with COVID positive hospital discharges? He’s “successful” because his policies killed 12,000 nursing home patients?
Don’t you care about grandma?
New Jersey: 31 deaths, 367 new cases on 7/9/2020.
https://www.njtvonline.org/news/uncategorized/tracking-the-coronavirus-in-new-jersey/
Signing off as i will be without internet for 2 weeks!
Deep State congrats on your “victory” of seeing Florida death numbers climb to a death rate of just under .07 % in July. If you pray hard enough – you just might get them really up for you to truly be “right” and vindicated!
I know silly me – the death numbers lag and we are gonna see truckloads of death in a month. Except in New Jersey where they had 100 deaths on 300 cases yesterday and havent had more than a 1000 cases in a day in a month. Not their fault im sure as they are truly winning the “cases” war and all deaths in the north east are a product of a great effort by those governors.
So long, Tony. You love hanging your head on ridiculously generated ratios as if it proves something. Hey, did you ever get back to me on how your analysis takes population density into consideration?
Did you see the news that they are getting refrigerated trucks to hold bodies in Houston? I guess they didn’t get your memo.
https://www.texastribune.org/2020/07/10/texas-coronavirus-deaths-morgues-capacity/
I hope you are right about the cases flattening, it was at least encouraging to see the positivity rate decline to under 13% in today’s report. This measure is really important-until it begins to decline, we are clearly not heading in the right direction.
The lag from new cases to deaths in FL seems to be about a month. The actual average time from diagnosis to death is more like 2 weeks, but there seems to be an additional lag just due to slower reporting of deaths than of test results. The seems to be especially bad in Florida, where the State Department of Health has forbid the state Medical Examiners commission from releasing data from medical examiners, which for 30 years has always been available. Eventually, deaths will show up somewhere, but if you have to wait for death certificate data to be recorded, that can take a few extra weeks. In any event, cases are up over 700% in FL over the last month, and deaths are beginning to surge.
On a positive note, significant treatment improvements will likely mean that death rates will be significantly lower than they would have been a few months ago. Even with national cases double what they were back in April, we could still keep daily deaths below the previous peak, if mortality is only 1/3 of what it once was, for example.
I think it’s a good bet though, that we’ll see national deaths hit at least 1500/day again sometime in the next month, and FL hit at least 200/day. It does appear though that FL could be starting to flatten the new case curve, after last weeks agressive actions by county and state authorities, so hopefully it won’t go higher than that.
I don’t know if this applies to testing, but in today’s local paper they listed the date of death of the 6 people who died in Brevard County, who were counted among yesterday’s total, and they had different dates, as far back as June 30. So it’s possible that some counties or towns take more time to report than others or report less frequently and group the daily numbers.
As a personal experience, Eastern Florida State University gives free drive-thru Covid testing. A couple of weeks ago, my husband and I thought we’d go and get tested. There were so many cars waiting, at least 200 without exaggeration, that we just left. The surge in cases may be leading to more people feeling the need to get tested. Possibly.
I’m choosing to ignore the anger and vitrol that has been flowing here the past couple of days.
I have a question about the data (yes, a real question, not a provocation or accusation). Does anybody know of any articles or studies explaining the large fluctuations in Florida’s number of daily tests? In the DOH daily report today it shows 95,000 tests. Yesterday was 51,000. 3 days previous was 48,000, which is about half of today’s number. Why are we varying so much on daily tests? Most health officials agree we need more testing. Our daily positivity rate is far too high, showing that we aren’t catching all the cases. I haven’t heard anybody offer an explanation so far as to why.
Something interesting I noticed from the data was that both today and six days ago the number of new cases was around 11,500. Today we had 95,000 tests reported and six days ago we had 85,000. That leads to one of two conclusions 1. 85,000 plus tests per day are catching most of the cases or 2. Extra testing is being done on random people just to lower the positivity rate. I am definitely hoping it is number 1, but I’d love to see some data or research on that.
@Steve –
> Does anybody know of any articles or studies explaining the large fluctuations in Florida’s number of daily tests?
This is likely a function of backlogs by private vendors and/or fluctuations in testing site availability. Simple google searches about testing sites in south florida will reveal they often send a lot of people home, untested, as they have reached daily capacity. I know two people with fevers in Leon county who have been unable to get tests on consecutive days; the site just didn’t have enough tests or staff to get through the queue. What you are seeing is imperfect data from a stressed system, you just won’t be able to get any fine grained information from it. Data collection and aggregation is difficult with just a few entities much less the mess we have now.
> Extra testing is being done on random people just to lower the positivity rate
But our positivity rate is climbing. You might find this tool useful:
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/testing/individual-states/florida
I think the reality is that this data collection effort, in near real time, is very difficult to do and impossible to do with clarity; lots of agencies, hospital systems, coding systems, vendors and tests all happening while people want data right now. My suspicion is that this kind of fluctuation in values is just a function of the messy nature of real world data combined with a hundred different entities trying to submit data to a central location.
If the data is coming from FDOH why is the data provided on FDOH Dashboard so far off when it comes to deaths due to COVID-19,
you are reporting 120 deaths on 07/08 and the dashboard shows only 15 on the same date. This is a huge disparity can you please explain why?
Data is the only way Florida’s citizens can make informed decisions about their health and the health of their love ones, but the data needs to be accurate.
As the saying goes “Garage in,Garage out”.
It is imperative this discrepancy be explained and hopefully rectified to allow your site to have any validity and be seen as the authority in providing data to the public.
Please respond ASAP to this request!!! It is Vital!!!
Have Great day !!! Be Safe and “Lets be careful out there!!” – Hill Street Blues Sgt. Esterhaus (Micheal Conrad)
Good point! Perhaps the difference is that the graph at one site histograms fatalities by “date reported” and the graph at the other site histograms by “date of death”.
I am constantly amazed by so many with a singular focus on the cases, and frankly, even deaths from Covid 19. This whole thing is so much more complicated that these numbers. I know two people who have now shut their businesses and filed for bankruptcy protection. I have a colleague whose neighbor committed suicide, and his wife claims it was because he had been out of work since March and their financial situation was dire. Lastly, my next door neighbor was delayed by four months getting a cancer screening because the practice was closed. I pray that his test does not come back positive.
It is easy to look at the case numbers, etc and blame politicians. It is not so easy to understand the other implications of draconian decisions that might save some lives from Covid 19 but have devastating impacts on others which are not so easy to measure and will sure hell not be covered by the media. I don’t envy any of these politicians who are trying to balance all of these competing issues. The options all suck, they are trying to choose the ones which suck the least. But don’t kid yourself, these numbers are not the only thing the can or should take into consideration, it is way more complicated that that.
any politician that bucks the overall media scare will be crucified and run out of office in a heartbeat. there is no way to stand up to these fear mongers.
@Tony –
The inability to respond in thread here is horrible.
> This world you live in where there was this obvious perfect solution that we didnt follow is kinda hard for me to get behind but who knows.
We didn’t follow any solution! We got asked to observe a decrease in cases for fourteen days before opening, and we failed to do even that! We were told masks work, and we fail to mandate them. We get told about the simple reality of exponential growth, and we open bars. None of those are ‘perfect’ solutions, they are the basic, rudimentary ones, and we didn’t do any of them. What’s so hard to figure out?
> The death rates in Europe are a joke – a joke. Why are they so high because they dont report cases – or they just dont take care of the people – its one or the other
Can you provide some evidence to this? I mean, their *cases* are also low. I mean, is it your argument that hospitals in England, Germany, Spain, Italy, Norway, Poland and the rest of Europe look like those in Miami county right now, but there just is no news on it?
Europe went through an actual lockdown, and they stayed with it for months. They didn’t open back up the second a bunch of hillbillies started complaining about their rights to not wear masks. If you can provide some evidence that Europe is just not reporting cases, or hospitalizations, or deaths, I’d love to see it, otherwise it is just projection and wishful thinking.
> My biggest frustration with you is that you excuse every early – northern – death as not their fault and wear out lately when in the end Florida would have to have 120 deaths for like 250 days to equal new york today (not adding the deaths they will have in those days.
There is so much wrong with this sentence it is difficult to know where to start. Population density matters, a lot. There is no equivalent to packed NYC subway cars in Florida in terms of population density. You want to badly to pin these deaths on Democratic “policies”, when they were a function of geography and the fact that places with high population density vote Democratic. I’d love to hear your analysis on the degree to which population density contributes to viral spread, and how that affects your calculations on cases and deaths in NYC.
You seem to want to ignore the fact that our knowledge of how widespread the disease was in coastal cities was lacking in February and March. Why? I mean, somehow our national response (led by Republicans) had no testing, no contact tracing, set up, anywhere; even after we sat and watched China literally weld people into their homes to implement distancing. Why do *you* excuse a complete lack of national response?
But it’s worse than missing that elephant in the room, because for some reason, you seem to think that people are unable to alter their behavior after witnessing events and incorporating them into a worldview. Our understanding of the virus is *different* now than March, when the NYC cases were incubating. Our understanding of the effectiveness of shelter in places effect on the virus’s ability to spread was learned by seeing what happened to NYC numbers.
Here is a newsflash, Tony. There are some people who realize that as you gain information about a subject, you are able to subsequently alter how you act. Florida, Texas, and Arizona all made conscious decisions to see what happened in NYC with unmitigated spread, and for some reason, decided they wanted to try the same thing, just on a model with reduced population density. The people who understood virus transmission all said the same thing: “This is how you get widespread community transmission” And that’s what happened. So here we are, I don’t want perfect, but I want ‘not guaranteed to cause an explosion of COVID’. Apparently that is too much to ask.
> We will end up with the same cases and a 1/3 of the casualties and we will not leave our grandkids with trillions in debt (but hey debt, economy – thats just some things the republicans made up because their greedy – theres no actual long term ramifications to ignoring them).
Do you really think the economy is going to be gangbusters in Miami for the next three months? Are a lot of tourists going to come down to the epicenter of COVID cases and spend their money? Would you go to Disney World tomorrow with your family? You can! Support the economy! You should go to a movie theater, eat in at big chain restaurants and leave large tips, and join some gym classes, re-hire your personal trainer.
If you aren’t willing to go to bars and spend, go to Disney and spend, go to a movie theater, or ride on packed airplanes, that means that your lamentations about the economy are more or less, ‘people that aren’t me doing things I won’t do myself because it is dangerous’. That’s a moral issue.
I happen to think that if there is a positive side to this, it may help our nation come to a place where we can discuss the pros and cons of an economy based on continuous consumption and 50% of the population working week to week.
> You get to wait for bad new and pick at them.
I didn’t have to wait though; it was simple to predict! If I know someone who runs red lights all the time, I don’t have to wait until they crash to tell them it isn’t safe!
> The governor of Michigan is one of the biggest hypocrites there is.
But what about their cases and deaths? What about those? Is Michigan in cahoots with Europe, hiding all of their cases and deaths? What’s your explanation for their caseload?
> Trump will win Michigan – not because he deserves to but because of people hating her.
Maybe. You are right in that he doesn’t deserve to though!
> I also predict Republican states will never end up with more than 60 % of Democratic States in casualties
And again, you seem completely immune to the notion of population density? Why? You know who else is going to have low cases? The moon, because nobody lives there. Yes, South Dakota will have fewer deaths than New York per-capita. If you are unable to see why that might be a function of how many people live there, and at what distance from one another, as opposed to policy, all of your precious analysis you’ve been doing on death rates has been a total waste of time.
You lied when you said you were speechless.
@Richard –
Amazing rebuttal. But I don’t think I ever said that.
BTW – What are your thoughts on the number of cases of Covid19 in Europe vs the US? I’d love to hear your take on it.
Policy regarding nursing homes caused a lot of the deaths in NY.
he order was issued March 25 and reported March 26. Google “New York tells nursing homes they’ll need to take coronavirus patients discharged from hospitals, report says”.
April 21 “Andrew Cuomo’s coronavirus nursing home policy proves tragic”
May 22 “Over 4,500 virus patients sent to NY nursing homes”
Far more nursing home deaths in NY than the overall TOTAL death count in Florida.
Cuomo is no hero. His soundbite “Your mother is not expendable” was hypocritical politicking. That he has not been held accountable for his policies is scandalous.
An average daily death of 100 was Cuomo’s GOAL where he could “breathe a sigh of relief” during the worst of it in NY. Google it. According to CDC threshold COVID-19 death rate is about to drop below epidemic status. Google it.
Media should be reporting “Despite having an older population, Florida’s death rate is a mere 1/10th of NY death rate during the NY COVID-19 peak”
Chillax people!
42% of people who died in America were nursing home residents. Google it. Their health is compromised and their life expectancy is short. I lost my Dad at age 89 June 11. He lived in an assisted living facility. For the last 5 years, each time I saw him, I thought it might be the last.
Sad? Yes.
Unexpected and tragic? No.
You don’t know me. Your post was mean-spirited and filled with assumptions about me to fit your own narrative. You live in your mind, I don’t.
My narrative is that attitudes like yours are contributing to people not adhering to prudent public health recommended behaviors. As a result, more people are getting sick, and more people are dying. My post was not intended to be mean-spirited, but I will admit to anger. I was reading your words and got angry with your attitude.
Your simplistic solutions – “If you are concerned, just quarantine yourself” – ignore the many people on the front lines trying to take care of us. Grocery store workers, health professionals. They can’t quarantine themselves. And the jerks not wearing masks in the stores put workers’ lives at risk. “Homeschool your kids” – and hold down a full time job if you are able to work remotely?
I stand by my comments that you lack empathy. I am glad you don’t live in my mind.
I stand by my assessment that you need to create a person in your mind. For whatever reason, it apparently comforts you. If you read my previous posts, you would see that I have elected to quarantine myself until this blows over, and in my private life I encourage all those my age to do the same. I shouldn’t have to explain myself to you. And stop trying to keep your idea of me in your mind by quoting me and putting your own meaning into what I say. Can’t you find someone else to bother?
@Pete –
> My narrative is that attitudes like yours are contributing to people not adhering to prudent public health recommended behaviors. As a result, more people are getting sick, and more people are dying. My post was not intended to be mean-spirited, but I will admit to anger. I was reading your words and got angry with your attitude.
Dead on. People are advocating attitudes that affect the health of everyone in the society, then get their snowflakes melted if you tell them that condoning activities that put nurses, cops, and any other frontline workers in danger based failures in rudimentary logic.
I live with a person who is 75, all of the time. And yet, I have to go to publix in order to be able to feed my children. I cannot ‘quarantine’ my mother in law; so when people cavalierly put workers at publix at risk by insisting masks don’t work, or are an infringement, or whatever, while telling me to ‘just stay home’, it makes me see red.
Tara may not have said that about masks per se, but her attitude is consistent with one wherein the problem is the media narrative, as opposed to the real impacts the virus is having on people. The media has plenty of problems, but it isn’t going to put my mother in law in the ICU.
I’ve been accused of being mean spirited, vitriolic, and others on this thread, but the reeality is I am downright angry at people gleefully taking steps that put the health of anyone in society at risk. We can have discussions about the economy, and the very real impact shelter in place orders have had on it. Those effects are real and deserve attention, and as I’ve said previously here, I think this calamity has the power to make people wonder if the way our economy was working was really that good a deal for the vast majority of American citizens.
@Tara –
>I do not personally know a single person who was hospitalized, let alone died, from Covid. I do not personally know a single person who knows someone personally who was hospitalized or died from Covid.
Allow me to introduce myself. My Aunt died of COVID-19. My sister and her family all got it in February- thankfully were not hospitalized, but they were severely ill. Her friend is still living with severe symptoms five months later.
So now you know one person. Does that give you more empathy than seeing 130,000 Americans dead? If I told you they were white, upper-middle class Christian Republicans, would that make you care more?
You go on to say, “I’m tired of the never-ending stress and fear-mongering of this virus.” So go out. Enjoy yourself. Have a great time at church, restaurants, shopping. I hope you don’t get sick.
But if you do get sick with this horrible disease (and don’t die), maybe then you will have a shred of empathy for your fellow man. Bless your heart.
Mind reading lack of empathy. Sarcasm. You should be ashamed.
@Tara –
> I want a media that reports the facts without bias.
The fact that our rolling 7 day average went to 120 deaths is simply a fact. It isn’t bias.
> I want politicians that don’t act like a bunch of high school mean kids at best, and megalomaniacs at worst.
Don’t vote Republican then.
> Maybe I and everyone I know are just lucky, I don’t know, but I do know I’m tired of the never-ending stress and fear-mongering with this godforsaken virus.
I mean, you saw the video of the refrigerator trucks used to store bodies because the morgues were overwhelmed, right?
OK, my last visit and comment here for a while because it’s getting hot in here. 🙂
@DeepStateProvocateur
Of course I am not talking about stating facts as being biased. I am talking about our current media which is very slanted in its quest to find blame and to be inflammatory.
I saw Nancy Pelosi rip up a copy of the SOTU address behind Trump’s back on national TV. You can’t get more high school mean girl than that. Is that any way for grown, elected official to act, and is that any example to be setting for our youth? I agree the Republicans are just as bad. The whole political system has gone bananas!
And, no, I did not see the video, although I heard of a funeral parlor owner who was accepting more bodies than he could handle and putting them in a U Haul. I would like to see the video.
If you’re concerned about the virus, quarantine yourself and hope for the best. Gloating and Monday morning quarterbacking is just annoying and doesn’t help. If you feel your leaders are letting you down or your neighbors are letting you down, don’t waste your energy by using it as an excuse to mock and demean. Do something constructive about it instead. I’m sure people who figured out whom to blame can figure out what to do. If you have young children and are afraid of their going back to school, homeschool them. If you are a teacher and are afraid for your life if you have to go back to a classroom, don’t go. Offer to teach online classes. I expect you won’t get much of an argument. Make it work for you. I suspect the schools’ opening date will be postponed, who knows. The point is, most people are good, honest souls. In times like this, we would all be comforted if we work together towards a common goal. We can do it, we are doing it, despite sometimes going off track with looking to blame.
Wow! Great post! Thanks!
@DeepStateProvocateur
I want a media that reports the facts without bias. I want a forum where it isn’t apparent some are hoping for the worst in order to blame politicians they hate. I want politicians that don’t act like a bunch of high school mean kids at best, and megalomaniacs at worst. Silly me.
I was born and raised in NJ. I moved to NY after I married. I worked in NYC for 30 years. I have many friends and relatives still in NJ/NY. I do not personally know a single person who was hospitalized, let alone died, from Covid. I do not personally know a single person who knows someone personally who was hospitalized or died from Covid, save for one woman who died but had stage 4 lung cancer. I know quite a few who tested positive and had mild symptoms. I know several who think they had it earlier. I know a few people who keep coming up with people they know who know someone that is related to someone who died without any underlying conditions.
Maybe I and everyone I know are just lucky, I don’t know, but I do know I’m tired of the never-ending stress and fear-mongering with this godforsaken virus.
Thanks for your thoughtful post.
to all of you people leaving comments on this page I have some questions: have you gone to get groceries since mid March? If so then why? Do you all have income independent from the economy? ie government checks etc?
We have our groceries delivered by Publix and Amazon. I was laid off effective May 1 and we are living on retirement funds and Social Security.
Today showed the highest hospitalizations and the highest deaths. Let’s hope this isn’t the beginning of something much worse.
But let’s prayer that we are not sending our children back to school without a better plan than we have had as adults.
COVID-19 Cases are Rising, So Why Are Deaths Flatlining?
1. Deaths lag cases, and that may explain almost everything.
2. Expanded testing is finding more cases, milder cases, and earlier cases.
3. The typical COVID-19 patient is getting younger.
4. Hospitalized patients are dying less frequently, even without a home-run treatment.
5. Summer might be helping – but probably only a little bit.
When President Trump and others point exclusively to lagging death figures during a surge, they are trying to tell you that America is, secretly, winning the war on COVID-19. But we’re not. The summer surge is an exceptionally American failure, born of absent leadership and terrible public-health communication.
After all the graphs, statistics, science, and interpretations, we’re left with a simple fact: Hundreds of Americans are dying every day of a disease that is infecting several hundred thousand of them every week. If that’s success, let’s pray we never see failure.
Source: https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/07/why-covid-death-rate-down/613945/
> The summer surge is an exceptionally American failure, born of absent leadership and terrible public-health communication.
It is downright embarrassing when you look at US numbers vs Canada and the EU. We were already a laughing stock of non-stop Trump platitudes before COVID, and now, the EU is actively banning travelers from the US because of how badly we’ve botched our ‘response’. Remember when the President’s son in law, inexplicably put in charge of the response went on TV in late April and proclaimed:
“We’re on the other side of the medical aspect of this,” he told Fox News on Wednesday with a smooth smile. “The federal government rose to the challenge, and this is a great success story.””
What planet are these people living on?
The real one where we have to make big boy decisions and dont live on unemployment provided by the people who have to really make decisions.
> The real one
LOL, so in the real world the federal response ‘rose to the challenge and this is a great success story’? I mean, would you call the federal response a ‘great success story?’
I mean, if you want to argue about the economics, that’s fine, but if you think the federal response has been outstanding, I am sort of at a loss for words. I guess I would start with, what federal response?
Pete, Please enlighten us with your foolproof short and long term strategy for the pandemic. Please avoid unicorn-based solutions. Please explain why – given the fact that totally effective vaccines have never been developed for Corona viruses – the human race has managed to survive so far. Specifically, please let us know exactly why viruses have died out in the past.
Perhaps you can cite other articles by leftist Trump haters to help you make your points.
Ughhh….I can hear the salivating media now….Florida tops all time high in deaths…for the first time, over 100 in a day. Now they can go back to talking about deaths, and not cases.
@Tara –
Well, hasn’t the steady drum beat from our fearless leader been: “Our deathrate is low, so my decisions haven’t been proven to be a disaster”? (yet) They could also talk about cases, seeing how as 18% of tests came back positive. They could also talk about how our hospitalization rates are shooting up also.
I mean, it was like Monday when the governor insisted aloud that our cases were ‘stabilizing’; I just don’t see how it is the media’s fault for reporting factual information. You seem to be more bothered about the fact that it violates some narrative (we’ve stabilized!) vs the reality of the situation.
What would you have the media report? Nothing? At least it wasn’t 200 dead Floridians today? Should they redefine what stabilized means? What do you want?
I agree with you – it’s not the media’s fault the cases are up. My suspicion is more that Tara is frustrated that there isn’t more emphasis when the numbers are good but only when they are bad.
Shooting up is hardly a the correct explanation of the hospitalization rate. Certainly an unwelcome upward trend.
Desantis and all other early open Governors need to be held accountable in the court of public opinion for opening up the bars to 100 %. I would also have to admit that not requiring masks is not making much sense with the data we have.
Most of the other businesses I think are able to operate with masks and social distancing.
In the end there have been giant mistakes made by literally every leader involved. We would do well as a nation to not excuse the ones that are from people with our beliefs and not the ones from those that arent.
> My suspicion is more that Tara is frustrated that there isn’t more emphasis when the numbers are good but only when they are bad.
But the numbers were never good, they were just fantasies, the equivalent of being up two touchdowns at the end of the first quarter and then declaring victory. Yes, our numbers were low initially, but it didn’t have anything to do with our lockdown-lite or some other facet of our “plan” that leadership put in place. It was a function of geography (more initial vectors from China went to NYC compared to say, Miami) and NYC looking like a total disaster, very likely as a function of a combination of extremely high population density and transmission in the subways. Once Florida started getting *hot* people started congregating indoors, which is wear COVID spreads best.
I mean, it would be one thing if the Governor had given any explanation as to which of his initiatives were responsible for our low rate, but instead, he simply declared mission accomplished, opened up the state, and conservatives penned a piece about him being due an apology. Oh the irony.
> Shooting up is hardly a the correct explanation of the hospitalization rate. Certainly an unwelcome upward trend.
OK. It’s going to get worse until we go back to lockdown though, and it won’t stop getting worse for a few weeks after we go into lockdown. Every day that DeSantis ignores this reality puts us deeper in the hole. The virus is going to keep spreading no matter how many explanations he tries to use to explain why our growing numbers aren’t a disaster in the making.
> Most of the other businesses I think are able to operate with masks and social distancing.
It would help if we had a statewide mandate for it. But even then, I don’t think lots of businesses are well suited for it; everyone wants other people making their food, but kitchens in professional restaurants, and fast food, are cramped. You can’t social distance. Sure, you can where a mask, but I was at Metro Deli three weeks ago and no one in the place was wearing one. (This was before the county mandate, no idea if they have changed habits). But the point is, there are a lot of places still open where it is not really possible to be 6 feet from someone.
> I would also have to admit that not requiring masks is not making much sense with the data we have.
We are in complete agreement. But take a look at the thread on this site about the lawsuit in Leon county regarding the masks; Republicans are suing the county commission over it, and other Republican’s are cheering it on. He cannot mandate masks because he angers a significant portion of his base, a subset of people that are seemingly immune to the benefits of masks.
> In the end there have been giant mistakes made by literally every leader involved.
Won’t disagree much. What about the governor of Michigan? They have half our population, and when a bunch of armed people came to the capital to protest mask wearing, she held fast. When our President referred to her as ‘that woman’, she held fast and did unpopular things in name of public safety. Now, they’ve been averaging We would do well as a nation to not excuse the ones that are from people with our beliefs and not the ones from those that aren’t.
I agree.
Maybe,
This world you live in where there was this obvious perfect solution that we didnt follow is kinda hard for me to get behind but who knows.
The death rates in Europe are a joke – a joke. Why are they so high because they dont report cases – or they just dont take care of the people – its one or the other
My biggest frustration with you is that you excuse every early – northern – death as not their fault and wear out lately when in the end Florida would have to have 120 deaths for like 250 days to equal new york today (not adding the deaths they will have in those days. We will end up with the same cases and a 1/3 of the casualties and we will not leave our grandkids with trillions in debt (but hey debt, economy – thats just some things the republicans made up because their greedy – theres no actual long term ramifications to ignoring them). But that wasnt new yorks fault and 100 % Floridas
Governors have to actually making decisions with tho whole of safety, economy, and society in account. You get to wait for bad new and pick at them. Your world of perfection of minimal deaths would have had some catastrophic side effects but you dont have to live with that decision – you just live with reporting all the obvious bad decision.
The governor of Michigan is one of the biggest hypocrites there is. Trump will win Michigan – not because he deserves to but because of people hating her.
BTW – I guarantee you that when northern states open up as it is inevitable (because society will demand it) – their cases will skyrocket (amazingly deaths will rise moderately but the death rate will plummet) and that wont be their fault somehow.
I also predict Republican states will never end up with more than 60 % of Democratic States in casualties
Thanks Karen, when I want the truth, Twitter is always the first place I check.
Perfect
The next few weeks will be tense for sure in Florida. It remains to be seen if the number of deaths will rise considerably. Staying off Twitter can only help when it comes to staying as calm as possible.
And just to say, my post about Florida’s afternoon storms is what happens when you quarantine yourself and sit on your lanai watching a thunderstorm with your husband and a bottle of wine. Lesson: never drink and post. Ever.
Twitter is cesspool of vitriol. With the shutdown, it got progressively worse. I have deactivated my account and my life has improved. 🙂
There will be people who need to believe that Florida is a mass of dead bodies. Nothing will dissuade them, not numbers, not testimony, nothing. They will come up with facts and innuendo and anything else that feeds into the narrative they choose to create. Accusing Florida officials of lying is no surprise.
Our death rate is only so much better than New York’s if we aren’t undercounting COVID deaths significantly. I’m not at all convinced that’s the case… see this thread
https://twitter.com/DrSeaPerle/status/1280958220891193344
The skeptic in me believes this is a stat you will believe if your a liberal and not if your a conservative. Like viewing a pass interference call from opposing teams.
There are like 20 states in US with similar Death Rate and Florida lines up with all the states in the South. So far the Death Rate has shown consistency by Region (Democratic North Carolina is similar to Republican Georgia in the south – Republican Massachusetts is similar to Democratic New York)
Its also hard to imaging with the hard to argue with the obvious left slant of the media – there would not be more traction nationally (cnn) to the Desantis is fudging the numbers theory. There would have to be alot of complicit people to pull that off.
Now, with the virus running rampant, Punkin Head wants to send all the kids back to school, without benefit of the CDCs scientific recommendations.
No question his methods suck. In my mind there is no question that its worth a conversation as to exploring every way to make it happen for the competing negative effects and the long term damage.
His methods and the predictable Never Trump response leave us with this binary he wants to kill Americans / No other way to achieve safety but closure continuum.
Frustrating to me because I truly believe if we banned trump and the media from the island we could all find compromise relatively quickly
The left never compromises.
Can we get a green arrow for when the protests started and people ignored social distancing guidelines? Seems like that is more is relevant than when the Phase 2 re-opening was.
It’s only if more relevant if more people attended the protests than started going to restaurants, bars, stores, gyms, hair salons, etc, etc, etc after the Phase 2 reopenings. You think that’s very likely?
It might be relevant if all the protestors that congregated before Phase 2 started going to restaurants, bars, stores, gyms, hair salons, etc, etc, etc. That seems pretty likely. Whether or not that actually contributed to this rapid spread is unknown But the point is they were given a free pass by the media. That is what is so annoying and that is why politics gets brought up. If they were protesting for conservative values, they would not have been given a free pass And that is very likely, don’t you think?
It is transmitted in close contact. Pretty logical that there was mass transmission in both the protests and the re – open. The protests were significant enough in my opinion to track cases after. On the media point – hard to argue that they went through great lengths to track the spread in tulsa. It just shows hypocrisy that they dont also track spread in giant cities with protests is all.
> But the point is they were given a free pass by the media.
Gov De(ath) Santice already went full in on opening up before BLM; we were among the last to close, never had any serious mandates on distancing or masks, failed to close beaches for Spring Break, and were the first to do a victory lap. The policies have aged like milk, but it’s the media’s fault for being annoying.
> If they were protesting for conservative values, they would not have been given a free pass
I love how ‘let’s have cops stop murdering people’ is not a conservative value. That could be part of the problem, you know.
I don’t like to argue with people who don’t concede obvious points.
Police brutality is an issue for sure. As a conservative – I welcome the protests and hope they bring real change. I dont want there to be 1 jerk on our fine police force and everything we can do to make that happen is welcome. Not sure I have found one conservative who thinks otherwise actually.
The point was really safety is safety and its hard to argue the difference in treatment.
I would say I love how not wanting to be jobless and lose your life savings when you know you can be safe but a governor arbitrarily deems you not essential should not – not be a liberal value.
The reality is the police brutality movement was important to who it was important to enough to protest (American Right) and the right to work was important to who it was important to enough to protest (American Right). While both were important both to the scale they were done put lives at danger and for whatever reason trump condoned one and not the other and the media condoned one and not the other – both based on their own agenda not a fair look at what was important to the people. Both of these bias cause us to question their motives on carona virus because they consistently flip to the other side when convenient.
Trump and the media are in a feud that both are politicizing tragedy and its at Americas expense.
haha
I live in Florida. For the past 5 days, we had late afternoon thunderstorms, high winds, and drenching rains, that lasted for about an hour. Just like we always do this time of year— June through August. These storms move rapidly, but are accepted in Florida as everyday occurrences around 4 pm or so. If this coronavirus can live though an hour a day of the voltage of thunderstorms, heavy rains, and winds, then the rest of the country has a shitload more to worry about.
The fear mongers are currently trying to assert that that being sick and recovering does not confer immunity. I can’t find any actual evidence for that assertion.
This article (from NPR, no less) seems to provide evidence FOR immunity:
https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2020/05/22/861061727/south-korean-study-shows-no-evidence-recovered-covid-patients-can-infect-others
Some articles claim that COVID-19 antibodies do not last more than several months. The South Korean study avoids that question by testing for reinfection rather than presence or absence of antibodies. I think that’s the correct approach.
Hi Richard –
> The fear mongers are currently trying to assert that that being sick and recovering does not confer immunity.
It is currently an open question.
https://www.the-scientist.com/news-opinion/studies-report-rapid-loss-of-covid-19-antibodies-67650
The NPR article you cite has nothing to do with wether or not you can get sick with COVID again after testing positive, but rather, if people who tested positive but recover can get *other* people sick. Also, in the age of covid science, this is a relatively old article.
> The South Korean study avoids that question by testing for reinfection rather than presence or absence of antibodies. I think that’s the correct approach.
Why do you think it is the correct approach though? You seem to conflate two different questions, though I have no idea why:
1) Can people who test positive, then recover, subsequently infect others? (This is the basis of the NPR article)
“Health officials there studied 285 patients who tested negative for the virus after recovering, but weeks later tested positive again. The question — in this and similar situations — is whether a positive test in this circumstance means that these people can still spread the virus.” – From the NPR article you cited. (OMG, you cited NPR!)
2) Can people who test positive, get sick again at a later time? (This is the basis of antibody studies).
“A pair of studies published this week is shedding light on the duration of immunity following COVID-19, showing patients lose their IgG antibodies—the virus-specific, slower-forming antibodies associated with long-term immunity—within weeks or months after recovery. With COVID-19, most people who become infected do produce antibodies, and even small amounts can still neutralize the virus in vitro, according to earlier work. These latest studies could not determine if a lack of antibodies leaves people at risk of reinfection.” — From the page I linked.
Antibodies give us insight into whether we can keep from ourselves the same disease again; they don’t tell us anything about whether or not people who recover can get *other* people sick. This isn’t fear mongering, but it seems like you are missing some basic immunology knowledge. (?)
Yep – Even though they sent thousands of patients to nursing homes and made them accept them even with all the capacity of ships and convention center.
Cuomo shouldn’t get voted out – he should be in jail
New York also outfitted the Javits Convention Center and it was largely unused. It had a 2500 bed capacity, and treated a total of about 1100 patients before they closed it in early May.
Great Point Glenn
Interesting Florida hospitalization rate (7.9%) is virtually the same as New York Death Rate (7.6%)
Florida Death Rate is 1.88 % (1/4 of New York)
Tony, even if we were expecting the same death rate as New York why would we outfit convention centers? New York outfitted two hospital ships and Central Park with tent hospitals and didn’t use them.
I hesitated to post my experience, because it doesn’t match any reports. But, here goes.
I believe my husband and I both had the coronavirus. We had what began as very runny nose, followed by weeks of extreme fatigue. During this time, our kids visited. One kid went back home and experienced high fever and shortness of breath. He said he felt awful.
I hesitate to say this, because this happened at the end of December, in Florida. I have several relatives in Florida who experienced similar symptoms in Jan-Feb. All of us have tested negative for antibodies.
As people we know are now testing positive, they all have the same symptoms we had back in December, save for one who is hospitalized, but was always having health issues for years prior.
My point is, this thing has been around for a while. Everything they say about it keeps changing. And it will continue to change for years until they can examine all the data and all the test resEverything they say about it keeps changing. And it will continue to change for years until they can examine all the data and all the test results
So for all of you getting excited about the upward trends in Florida, I would suggest we all calm down and wait to see how this whole thing plays out. Because no one has any idea what is really going on with this.
Good news for my Floridian geniuses who want to dig deep into the Johns Hopkins numbers. People are complaining about the bubble graphs and charts. Hence, if you spent some time and explored their data, perhaps you can write your own detailed analyses in what you are seeing.
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/
This isn’t some left wing or right wing issue. For goodness sake, its called a public health crisis and we are not managing it in any responsible way whatsoever.
Wear a mask, stay away from large crowds, and sanitize. It’s not rocket science and it shouldn’t be a political issue.
Well DeSantis doesn’t seem too worried. Said the median age of positives this week was in 20’s. Says he thinks there was same rate of people who had it in earlier months but we weren’t testing asymptomatic. Sounds familiar but I cant place where I’ve heard that theory before…
I would imagine if we were bracing for the same death rate as NY we’d be outfitting convention centers as hospitals but we aren’t.
Well, still no spike in death. What’s the CFR now? Feel like there should be definitely a spike in death. Of course, tomorrow, we don’t know. I hope there is no spike in death.
I keephoping for animated GIS maps, showing the increases, e.g. in each county, over time. Not number change or percentage change; those are too easy to make deceptive. Just the numbers. Maybe with each county white ot black, then filling up with color. Then you could, if one must, use different colors for the rate of change at different times.
Yah, I kerp wishing Johns Hopkins showed the percentages — what percentage of population confirmed infected, what percentage of population died from actual Wuhan/SARS-cov-2/ncov vs. how many died from traffic wreck, falling off the porch, etc., who happened to have antibodies. But the data are already contaminated, so good luck getting that.
It looks like job markets are 25%-50% back from the pandemic to pre-pandemic levels (depending on indicator). We still are about 36M-39M jobs short of full employment.
Holy crap there are a bunch of Andrew Gillum voters here today! Still wanting to prove they know a good leader when they hear their facts bahaha
That ? was meant to be a “joking” emoji.
BTW, all those 9 people at my son’s workplace are Republicans. ?
Tony, There are some political animals in these comments. You are not one of them.
Thanks for all your work!
Ok
Point 1 – Well taken – i guess i dont understand why the death amounts ramped up so quickly to 3-5 % if there is a month lag with out there being cases we didn’t know about but your right we havent had ramped up cases and flat death rate long enough for my theory to proven valid or not. Seems super logical to me that if the same absolute amount of people are dying for 3 months and then we all of sudden have triple to quadruple the testing and we “reveal” more cases that there was rampant undetected infections in the previous months.
Point 2 – I wholly disagree that we were testing the same group of people in Mid May then the end of June. In mid may you were encouraged not to test unless you had symptoms but quarantine do to lack of tests (our 7 day test avg was 10,000 then) and now virtually anyone is encouraged to test who has been exposed (7 day avg is 30,000). That is a significant change in strategy of who you are testing.
Point 3 – I didnt know that – that is helpful information for sure.
Point 4 – If you go to the Worldometer website for the US and click on footnote number 1 for New York it will take you to the state of new york website – click on fatality data. This isnt breitbart or fox news – its literally the data collected by the state of new york. You will find that 89 % of deaths had a comorbidity (some of which are the ones you mentioned – my 99.7 comment points to those any age that dont have a comorbidity) and 85 % of people were older than 60. Their data not mine. Its safe to assume that Florida breakdown is similar (maybe not but statistically its probably similar). So if only 2 % of all people who contract in florida die and we know that in general a large portion of those are older than 60 and or have a comorbidity then its safe to assume those that do not have a comorbidity and are younger are going to have an enormously high survival rate ( 99.7 might be light if you run out the math). This is why i make the point time and time again that the message of protecting those with commodities and/or older should be the one singular message all media pound.
Point 5 – Part A. The data overwhelmingly points to a decrease in the avg age of positive cases for those 30 and under. Before June the avg age of positives was in the 50’s and now has gone all the way to the 30’s. This clearly points to different groups being tested.
Part B – I never said the (or didnt mean to) death rate is flat – more the absolute value is flat. The rate has gone from 5 % in april and may to 2 % overall with june being 1.1 % and July .5 % so far. The hopitalization rate has went from 20 % in april and may to 4 % in June and 3 % in July. Meanwhile New York has went from 8 % death rate to 4.5 % death rate (so their plummeting number matches our all time high).
Point 6 – I will never understand why its simply taboo to ask the question when its clear the data is different. If the states were all divisions of your company you would not just initially excuse the data – you would dig in and make sure there isnt a systematic problem. I would never let a manger just give me a simple answer to a problem in data without proof that they thoroughly dug into it.
I didnt make this virus political – the media did and im sorry but im gonna call it like i see it. It doesn’t have to be nasty but its worth a conversation. BTW if it was reversed Id still want to know why and Id be the first in line asking those republican states what wasn’t working. In the end I think not asking the questions is equally as political as asking them.
I believe some states implemented strategies that made them more successful than others and I want to know what they are so we can save lives in all states.
FWIW, my son’s workplace was exposed to the virus about 4 weeks ago by a visitor to the office. All 50 or so employees were tested. 9 tested positive. All 9 presented symptoms within 2 weeks of exposure.
1-hospitalization (53, male, said to be “not in the greatest health to begin with“)
2-shortness of breath, high fever
6-sore throat, low fever, fatigue
All 9 are well on the road to recovery.
Tony – I’ll respond to your points in order:
1. You point to a flat death rate as being evidence that nothing has changed, but we also had a flat new cases rate until about 3 weeks ago when it started to rise. The death rate has been consistently 3%-5% of the average of cases. That doesn’t contribute to your point at all. In fact the rising hospitalization rate supports the fact that we are not just finding people who have been asymptomatic the whole time. New people are getting sick who are ending up in the hospital
2. You theorize that the positivity rate has increased because we are opening up the testing. The problem with that idea is that we opened up the testing to people without symptoms in early May. The spike in positivity rate didn’t come until mid-June. There was no change in who was being tested between early May and mid-June. The only thing that changed was the rate, which means that there are verifiably more people who are sick than there were before. If we were just observing this group of consistent asymptomatic people that you theorize, we would have seen them in May as well, not just suddenly appearing in June.
3. In regards to the multiple positive phenomena, luckily our DOH is smart enough to account for that. In their daily pdf report (which I advise everybody interested in the data to look at) they show two positivity rates. One for total tests per day to total positives per day and another for total people tested compared to number of people who test positive for the first time. This second rate is the one that everybody is relying on and reporting in the media. It is the correct way to handle the data and avoids counting people multiple times like you suggested. In the past week it has ranged from 12%-15%, which is extremely high!
4. I didn’t understand if your 99.7% comment was about your employees or in general, but there is no way that 99.7% of the general population under 65 have no comorbity. People with obesity, heart disease and diabetes are all confirmed higher risk. People with those conditions make up far more than 0.3% of the sub 65 population. If you look at the COVID numbers for Florida, those under 65 make up 47% of the hospitalizations and 19% of the deaths. This disease is not just a threat for older people.
5. While I respect your right to have this opinion about the asymptomatic people, the data just doesn’t back it up. Of course there are and will be asymptomatics, but we were testing openly before and not showing this kind of spike in cases, positivity rate and hospitalizations. Also, our death rate is not plummeting. As you said earlier it is flat. New York and New Jersey on the other had do have a plummeting death rate. It has gone down dramatically along with their numbers of new cases.
6. There is a very simple answer to your question of Democratic versus Republican states. The states that had the worst explosion early on were Democratic. I’m sure some would say that there is some conspiracy to this, but honestly, that’s just the way it happened. It’s discouraging that you are being so political about this. Republican states have seen an explosion of cases and hospitalizations recently, but you don’t focus on that. This virus doesn’t care about our politics! If we as individuals, or our political leaders allow political motivations to influence our response to this pandemic it will end badly for all of us.
Scott,
My understanding is Florida is one of the few states that by law has to balance the budget every year and thus cannot go into debt. In addition Florida has a large reserve. We are depleting that reserve (which is the point of having a reserve – no rainier day than a pandemic) and with 1 billion in budget cuts – we are tightening the belt but by no means are we even close to insolvent. This isnt my area of expertise so totally welcome facts if im wrong.
Steven – Another point on the theory that we have had tens of thousands of cases all along and are just now counting them is the relatively flat death line for 3 months. If you look at the deaths from the beginning of April till now you’ll see they are relatively flat. My inference from that is the only thing that has changed in June and July is we are counting the people who have it that are asymptomatic while we weren’t due to lack of testing before.
On the percent positive front – I have been thinking about this logically. In the beginning we had lack of tests and primarily focused on 3 subgroups of people. Those with symptoms, first responders, and those that were vulnerable. These people we were testing over and over to keep them safe. As capacity went up and we began testing asymptomatic people we began the phase of asymptomatic people who were exposed to the virus being tested. Seems again super logical to me that if we introduce a large group of people who are only testing because they have been exposed to the virus then we will have a higher percent positive.
Next there’s the multiple positive phenomena. So I have had several employees and even my son contract the virus. Luckily like 99.7 percent of people under 65 that dont have a comorbidity everyone has had no issues. It takes 4 to 5 days to get the result and you cant go back to work in alot of places until you get a negative result so what do alot of people do – go every day to test knowing that there’s a 5 day lag so they could have 4 positives before getting a negative.
Essentially the southern states are in a phase of back to work and counting likely asymptomatic people which is creating a craze of cases (that i firmly believe were there all along) while plummeting the death rate (Florida sits at 2.0 % while New York and New Jersey maintain a nearly 8.0 %)
On that subject its just odd to me that the top 10 states in terms of death rate are republican and the worst 5 are democrat. Can that be a sheer coincidence? Those top 5 states have as many deaths as the entire rest of the US.
I will always pound the drum of why is it we dont ask why this is?
> My inference from that is the only thing that has changed in June and July is we are counting the people who have it that are asymptomatic while we weren’t due to lack of testing before.
Then why are hospitalizations rising? I mean, can you detect any trend in hospitalizations between June and July?
> On that subject its just odd to me that the top 10 states in terms of death rate are republican and the worst 5 are democrat. Can that be a sheer coincidence?
I’m sitting here scratching my head, trying to think of any differences between New York City and South Dakota. They seem pretty much to be the same to me!
> I will always pound the drum of why is it we dont ask why this is?
Funny, the rest of the world looks to Trump and our numbers and says *exactly the same thing*. Ooof.
In any case, the answer is amazingly straightforward to someone trying to come to a logic based answer, instead of someone who has a preferred answer and wants to find a way to convince themselves it is true:
1. Population density matters. A lot. States (and municipalities) with Democratic leadership have higher population densities.
2. The virus was spreading, largely unknown, for a long time in urban areas, *especially* NY and NJ, which comprises the overwhelming bulk of the deaths you seem to concerned about.
3. We did not start practicing any social changes to affect the virus until a ton of growth was already baked into the population in those urban areas.
4. The mathematics of exponential growth.
If you think that Republican policies are great at preventing the virus (whatever those polices actually are?), why not turn your logical thinking mind toward what is happening in Arizona, Texas, and Florida? Why is Abott all of a sudden mandating masks and threatening a return to lock down?
The virus doesn’t care if you are a Republican or a Democrat, it really doesn’t. But it is opportunistic, and Republican policies are the ones that give it the most freedom to continue spreading. This is why places that re-opened earlier, places that refused to issue mask orders are the same places seeing numbers surge. It’s not difficult to understand.
Then why are hospitalizations rising? I mean, can you detect any trend in hospitalizations between June and July?
Cases up 1000 % Hospitalizations 20 % – not a strong correlation – actually emphasizes my point
I’m sitting here scratching my head, trying to think of any differences between New York City and South Dakota. They seem pretty much to be the same to me!
Then why do they have to have the same govt restrictions?
1. Population density matters. A lot. States (and municipalities) with Democratic leadership have higher population densities.
For the most part – i agree with you that this is a logical explanation. I would even add that the ones who rely more heavily on public transit have a much harder hill to climb. My only thing is thats it we just explain it away. It seems to me we are willing to calculate every decision desantis makes but just wash away mass deaths in the northeast – why not do both. Either explain away both staes or calculate every decision in both states. Fair?
2. The virus was spreading, largely unknown, for a long time in urban areas, *especially* NY and NJ, which comprises the overwhelming bulk of the deaths you seem to concerned about.
I think that is alot of it for sure. There are some glaring mistakes at the core of their strategy – hard to argue. Since June 1 NJ has a 20 % death rate – all other states avg less than 3 %. Why?
3. We did not start practicing any social changes to affect the virus until a ton of growth was already baked into the population in those urban areas.
I think thats true – but 10 times the death? If we had that as a Republican state would you be so willing to attribute?
4. The mathematics of exponential growth.
I’d welcome a debate solely based on math with you
If you think that Republican policies are great at preventing the virus (whatever those polices actually are?), why not turn your logical thinking mind toward what is happening in Arizona, Texas, and Florida? Why is Abott all of a sudden mandating masks and threatening a return to lock down?
The mass opening of the bars was a serious miscalculation in the Re-open states. Cant really get around that. This has caused Re-open states to see massive rise in asymptomatic cases that have spread unfortunately to the vulnerable. This is causing cases to skyrocket, hospitalizations and deaths to moderately increase. It was a miss and I can’t run from that. I dont think the total death caused by the miss equal the deaths caused by missing on the nursing homes in the northeast – but no democrat will concede that point.
I believe the republican states (Florida in particular) in general did a better job of mobilizing the national guard to protect the vulnerable and that saved a ton of lives.
Does anyone know if the virus would stay viable in a sewer system long enough to test? It would seem a good way to do community pool testing.
Yes. A few articles on it.
https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/499997-sewage-testing-gives-clues-of-coronavirus
https://www.miamiherald.com/news/coronavirus/article241908771.html
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00973-x
Always good to see a debate and to know that regardless what side your on we are all concerned and hopefully masking up. I need to bring up a couple of issues that I haven’t seen mentioned in the thread that may be interest. 1.) The virus is mutating and appears to be able to attach itself to a host much easier than the prior version making trend analysis much more difficult. 2.) Trump was having daily briefings in late April and early May with all fifty governors with the main topic of discussion to reopen their states as quickly as possible. From what you may recall there was almost a competition to see who could open up first in May 3.) Many states including Florida are for the most part financially insolvent or damn close to it as a result of the revenue losses due to the shutdowns. The governors are being forced to choose between the physical health of its residents or the financial insolvency of their states, its a no win situation that congress should have seen coming. This dilemma scares the hell out of me as there is currently no good outcome for this situation without a lot more contract tracing and testing. Be safe out there!
They are cooking the numbers on this covid B.S. and we know why. It is the globalist / communist agenda to bring total HELL.. to the U.S.A. and the world. This covid is a scam and part of there hell agenda to put fear in the people to get them to fall for there lies and be enslaved like never before. They want you to take there poison vaccines so many people will die from them and from all the other hell… they will bring, and have planed for you. The people of this web site are following like others the lies and agenda of the globalist CCP communist. Don’t fall it and don’t be enslaved by these workers of satan. God in heaven almighty hand will come down hard soon for all like this web site. That is the Truth……!!!
Thank you for numbers AND avg trend in ea gragh! Very Good.
Please consider developing a percent-positive gragh in similar fashion? It would help cut through the noise and push-back surrounding the rising numbers.
The percent of cases coming back positive is is clearly the metric we need to use to measure the progress of the epidemic. Devoid of context, the raw number of cases tells you absolutely nothing.
Steven you are absolutely correct that we need more testing if we want to slow the spread. Pool testing has been proposed recently and that may be the best way for us to multiply the testing to an adequate level with the resources available.
Tony I completely agree with you relative to the predicted spikes. And maybe there is a better study somewhere, but the best study that I have seen out there was from the Lancet in England which pegged the average time from showing symptoms to death at 17.8 days. I would guess that the standard deviation may be great, but certainly not several weeks. It is easy to google the information.
It seems logical to me that if we were about to have 3700 deaths then the hospitalizations would have already spiked.
I am becoming more and more convinced that you cant compare any state to another unless you make all the variables constant. I think florida and some other states are pounding out asymptomatic positives and others are not. This difference will cause havoc in predictability of deaths from one to the next.
To be clear – i do think we are spreading the virus at too rapid a rate. It could be civilly argued that we made mistakes to get to this point but republican or democrat we cannot change the past (I recognize the irony of that statement). We have to stay safe – mask, wash hands, social distance and most importantly do everything possible to inform and protect those that the data shows are vulnerable. As a side note it is not reported enough the unbelievable increase in chance of death by comorbidity or over 65. We have had more deaths from people over 80 than those under 65 in Florida.
I am just hopeful that the data indicates that when you add up the real number of people who have it – the death rate is going to be less than a 1/2 of percent. At this point I have to be right because the alternative is something the Nation/State cannot take at the rate this virus travels.
Cheri, You make a great point in the virus spreading undetected. I actually believe the virus was spreading rapidly undetected in April and May as well in Florida. Its statistically improbable that we went from 22,000 cases to 100,000 cases in 1 month. I think we just didn’t capture the asymptomatic spread in May and April. Thats not to say we arent spreading it more rapidly by being open – its pretty clear we are – but not 5 times the rate. I also believe we are not capturing the asymptomatic spread in the north east.
We are “capturing” 50,000 cases a day but that is not the totality of it for sure. We keep acting like we have had perfect information all along on the universe of people who contract it. We keep reporting and “increase in cases” as if we counted all of them before and after. Meanwhile we are adding more tests every day. Seems to me we are just continually reaching the upper limit of cases detected to actual cases transmitted.
So in May we could have a day of 600,000 transmissions but only caught 35,000 of them. Today we could have 500,000 transmissions of which we only caught 50,000. No one knows because testing capacity has seen a sever ramp up.
I believe this because of the phenomena of increased testing capacity and more importantly – asymptomatic infection. Its unrealistic to believe that we are seeing tens of thousands of asymptomatic cases that are turning up now, because of testing capacity, that weren’t there in May. With limited testing capacity and only essential business open – there would be no motivation for an asymptomatic person to test in May.
To me this perfectly explains why the death rate is drastically going down in almost all states (except New Jersey).
If I am right – I feel for the non-essential business in the North East as – they will see “cases” skyrocket as they open up – not deaths and this will lead to whole scale shut downs in those states as I fear they will ignore the data.
Tony, that’s why the positivity rate is so important. It’s not about tests to positives, it’s about the percentage of tests that are positive. We have been seeing that increase. Also, a high positivity rate means that not enough tests are being done. If the rate is increasing it means that the increase in testing is not keeping up with the increase in new cases. This is bad because it means more people are not getting caught early and so are spreading the virus more.
As far as asymptomatic cases, they are still a problem because they still spread the virus. We don’t have firm numbers on what percentage of cases are asymptomatic, but they are more dangerous in some ways because, unless we are regularly testing everybody in the state, the asymptomatic are spreading the virus to people who will be symptomatic, some of whom will die.
Im still perplexed at the stark difference in the numbers from NY/NJ to Florida. The amount of deaths do not seem to be going down in that area in correspondence to their cases.
In the past 3 Weeks NY/NJ combined has had 21,000 cases and 1,200 Deaths
In the past 3 Weeks Florida has had 107,000 cases and 818 deaths
The 3 weeks before that NY/NJ combined for 37,000 cases and 2,804 Deaths
The same 3 weeks so from 4-6 weeks ago Florida had 21,50 cases and 699 Deaths
Either the virus is a ton more deadly in those states or they are hiding positive cases or something but the numbers are fishy.
I think this data is playing into the conversation that we’ve been having here about the delay between being tested positive, being hospitalized and dying from the virus. You can’t compare new cases and daily deaths from the same time period. Daily deaths must be compared to new cases 4-8 weeks previous. If we look at your numbers that way: 4-6 weeks ago NY/NJ had 37,000 cases which yielded 1,200 deaths (3.2%) in the past 3 weeks. Florida had 21,500 cases 4-6 weeks ago which yielded 818 deaths (3.8%) in the past three weeks. Considering that, the death rate seems to be about the same. If those numbers hold true, we should expect about 3,700 deaths in Florida over the next 3 weeks. That could be lower if the virus stays mostly among younger, healthier people, which I hope it does.
If we discount the first months of the virus when everything was chaotic, there seems to be a steady relation between deaths a few weeks after new cases. We see this in the steady decline of NY/NJ cases and deaths.
Tony –
You aren’t ever going to try to make sense out of it because the reported new york data is a total mess. You are just gonna drive yourself crazy. Here are some things to think about:
It has been predicted through antibody testing that 20% of new yorkers were exposed; when they were testing there, it was only people who were really sick and coming to the hospital. There were no drive in testing sites like we have. Think about people riding in mass transit all through January, February and March, spreading COVID. A LOT more people had it and their cases never made it into the official count.
Take a look at cases of ‘pneumonia’ deaths in 2020:
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/investigations/2020/04/29/far-greater-u-s-covid-19-death-toll-indicated-cdc-data/3048381001/
Also, consider that vitamin d levels are known to be protective for COVID and consider the average sunlight exposure of a NYC resident compared to a Floridian. Finally, there are some therapies available for tough cases now (i.e., plasma exchange, steroidal treatments, a few pharmaceuticals) that were not available in NYC peak times. You’ll still see overloaded hospitals, but fewer deaths if these protocols are in place now, as opposed to then.
As noted previously, returning people to nursing homes was a disaster. For all of my criticism of DeSantis, I doubt he’ll do that when hospitals start running out of room.
This isn’t fishy data, it’s reality where records are poor, there are significant confounders across populations, and our treatment sets are different now versus the past.
Thanks, Steven, for that correction. I guess what I read, and as you stated here: “The news this week about reporting change is that they will start reporting the number of those who are currently hospitalized for COVID, not just the total.” was what confused me.
At any rate, cases set new high today, but deaths and hospitalizations are lower. *fingers crossed*
Personally, I have elected to quarantine myself until this blows over. My thought was always that we should never have shut down, but instead take precautions and quarantine the groups most likely to be affected the hardest. As a 65-year-old, the CDC has taught me that I am elderly and then some. I wasn’t aware of that before. 🙂
A lot of respect to you Tara for choosing to quarantine yourself! It can’t be easy!! I really believe that if all of us who the CDC doesn’t consider elderly 😉 would take this seriously, we could make it safer for the high risk people even without quarantine.
I want to see ONE chart, with two lines:
Green – number of people who died in the U.S. (for any reason) in January – June 2019
and
Red – number of people who died in the U.S. (for any reason) in January – June 2020
Until then, I consider Covid-19 l as a disrespectful and dangerous stunt in 2020 Election campaign.
I will be Very Happy to admit, I was wrong, if I ever see such a chart.
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm
Also here, where the chart you requested is available – though you should remember that the virus was not and is not spreading equally everywhere. So while there is obvious excess death over the entire USA, it is much more striking in specific states (Try MA, CT, DC, obviously NY & NJ).
Also remember that *less* people are dying this year in traffic accidents.
And note that this excess mortality is *after* severe mitigating means have been taken.
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm
DeepStateProvacatuer,
As I see it, the biggest problem with your argument is that executives like presidents and governors have to make concrete decisions that impact real people based on imperfect data.
Executives don’t get to hide behind squishy terms like “roughly doubling” and “eventually we will find a place” and “it seems likely” and “it may be closer” and “at least two weeks worth” and “for two weeks (or more)” and “for three weeks (or more)” and “over a month” and “might start dying earlier,” etc.
As you correctly state “this was all completely predictable” when you look back from the future. Was it completely predictable that thousands of the most vulnerable would die when Cuomo mandated that COVID patients be readmitted to nursing homes? Looking back now, sure it was. If I look back at your posting history to the day Cuomo made his decision, can I assume I will find where you were pointing out what a disastrous action that was and putting a number on how many would die? Can we hold it against Cuomo that he had imperfect data about the future?
Today is July 4, here’s your real opportunity to prove your point about how predictable this is (fill in the blank with the future data for Florida):
August 4
Daily Coronavirus Cases 7-Day Average: _______
Daily Hospitalizations 7-Day Average: _______
Daily Fatalities: _______
Total Fatalities: _______
Number of Available ICU beds: _______
September 4
Daily Coronavirus Cases 7-Day Average: _______
Daily Hospitalizations 7-Day Average: _______
Daily Fatalities: _______
Total Fatalities: _______
Number of Available ICU beds: _______
October 4
Daily Coronavirus Cases 7-Day Average: _______
Daily Hospitalizations 7-Day Average: _______
Daily Fatalities: _______
Total Fatalities: _______
Number of Available ICU beds: _______
These are just some of the numbers Governor DeSantis needs to make his decisions and set his policies. We can all check back on those dates and see how you did. I will certainly applaud you if you score within, say, 10% on all these numbers. And the executives making decisions could certainly use predictions that accurate.
Hi AlexWill –
> As I see it, the biggest problem with your argument is that executives like presidents and governors have to make concrete decisions that impact real people based on imperfect data.
Sure. What ‘concrete decisions’ has the President made, by the way? Can you name any?
> Executives don’t get to hide behind squishy terms like “roughly doubling” and “eventually we will find a place” and “it seems likely” and “it may be closer” and “at least two weeks worth” and “for two weeks (or more)” and “for three weeks (or more)” and “over a month” and “might start dying earlier,” etc.
What is squishy about “at least two weeks worth or decreasing cases”?
In any case, the White House had guidelines published in the times when public safety experts still had insight. Before even starting to enter the first phase of re-opening, it was recommend that the state observe a “Downward trajectory of documented cases within a 14-day period”.
Did Florida do that? Did Texas, or Arizona? No.
I guess counting to 14 too difficult for our Republican executives these days? Is detecting if 200 is less than 100 overly difficult for DeSantis or his advisors?
> As you correctly state “this was all completely predictable” when you look back from the future.
It was also *completely predicted* by infectious disease specialists! What do you think they’ve been saying this whole time? Here is a quote from Fauci on 5.12 regarding states that were trying to re-open. I would provide links, but they tend to get stuck in moderation, occasionally never to return. You can google any significant part of the quote to validate it.
“If some areas, cities, states or what-have-you, jump over those various checkpoints and prematurely open up without having the capability of being able to respond effectively and efficiently, my concern is that we will start to see little spikes that might turn into outbreaks,”
So, take a look at what is happening in Houston, or Dallas or Arizona, and tell me this wasn’t prescient? I mean, do you think it is just some *wild coincidence* that states that re-opened the fastest are also the ones experiencing the biggest outbreaks?
> Was it completely predictable that thousands of the most vulnerable would die when Cuomo mandated that COVID patients be readmitted to nursing homes?
Super dumb move, but ultimately, he did this *because the hospitals were overwhelmed*. If new cases were to be treated, people needed to be moved out of the hospital. These are the types of decisions that get made when there are no more hospital beds available, and Florida, Texas, and Arizona are heading that direction now (a prediction). When we get there, it will be because we opened too soon, and too many morons refused to wear a mask because it infringes on their ‘freedoms’.
> These are just some of the numbers Governor DeSantis needs to make his decisions and set his policies.
You want some predictions? In Houston, the place where Texan individualism had people not wearing masks, you will see stories of doctors deciding which patients get care and which don’t, death panels if you will, by 8.4.20. Texas will be *back* in a lock down by 8.4.20, because the even the ‘elderly should sacrifice for the economy’ Lt Governor knows that their re-opening was a total disaster, their ‘great state’ on the front page of every paper and first segment of any reality based news outlet as a (preventable) horror show.
As far as numbers, here’s a few stabs in the dark:
In Florida, Orlando, Tampa, and Jacksonville will begin to see significant increases in hospitalizations by 8.4.20. Hospitals in South Florida will be beyond surge capacity by 8.4.20. Let’s just say in Florida that we will be seeing 750 hospitalizations per day by 8.4.20. Deaths are harder to guess at, there are some therapeutics (i.e., steroids, plasma therapy, Remdesivir) and demographics (i.e., vitamin D levels) that seem to help extremely bad cases, so fewer might die on a per capita basis compared to NYC. Let’s say our daily deaths will be at 250 / day on 8.4.20. ICU beds are going to be a problem everywhere, but especially in larger metro areas; not that having two free ICU beds in Wakula is going to do anything to help Jacksonville who might need 50 free beds by then.
By the way, what prize do I get if my predictions are too rosy, and we actually have 500 deaths a day by 8.4.20?
Going further out, things get more difficult, seeing how as there will be more policy changes inbound once even DeSantis can see that his ‘we aren’t going back’ statement has aged like milk. I imagine gyms will be closed again, and restaurants back to 25% capacity or outdoor seating only. This will happen by 8.15.20.
The Republican National Convention in Jacksonville will be a tour-de-force of mouth breathers bravely not wearing masks or social distancing because the virus is just a big hoax that is going to just vanish eventually anyways. Considering how much Jacksonville county is already showing increases in COVID, it will be October before any effect of that party will show up, and it might be meaningless in the grand scheme of things if the entire place is on fire anyways. If you watch TV, you can expect to see video of this event peppering the broadcasts in ads supporting Democratic candidates because it exposes *how completely dumb* people were to take a simple, physical action that reduces virus spread and turn it into a political wedge.
By 9.4.20, DeSantis will be getting ROASTED for allowing Disney to re-open. Orlando will be a complete mess, Disney wants to stay open, but nobody in their right mind is flying into the airport, and hundreds or thousands of Disney employees will have been diagnosed with COVID. There will be dozens of whistleblowers who insist they were threatened with a loss of a job if they didn’t show up to get in a Mickey suit.
By 11.4.20 Trump’s approval rating with the elderly in Florida will be negative, an impressive feat considering he won them by 16 points in 2016.
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I don’t know why you would think I’m defending Trump. I can’t stand the guy. My point is that everything he does is a concrete action that impacts actual people. Everything you do is just words. He goes to Mount Rushmore and people are impacted for both good and bad — it’s the real world everything is both good and bad. He points out the good. You point out the bad. He has a convention and people are impacted for both good and bad. He points out the good. You point out the bad. Your words are just that. Words. No one is impacted for good or bad. No one has to live with the consequences of your words. You can change them whenever or tweak them whenever. There are no consequences. Presidents and Governors don’t have that luxury.
Well, of the eight phrases I pointed out, I notice you decided to defend one. It’s squishy because it doesn’t say “two weeks” it says “at least two weeks.” That’s exactly what squishy means. There are an infinite number of weeks that are “at least two weeks.” If you’re giving the executives a choice of an infinite number of choices, that’s some mighty squishy advice. Did they wait “at least” two weeks? No. But “two weeks” or “fourteen days” whatever it was, wasn’t handed down from God. That’s why you have advisors. Decisions have to be made. They made them. Good and bad. It’s the real world. Executives have to get input from the public health people, the mental health people, the economists, the policy people, the political advisors, etc., weigh the options and make the decisions. You can’t let Fauci run the pandemic response for the same reason you can’t let the generals run the war, or the Department of Transportation decide where the roads get built. They have a singular purpose and a singular viewpoint. The executives have to take all the input, make the decision and live with the consequences.
I’m going to assume that’s sarcasm. I’m pretty sure the governor can count to 14.
No need to validate it. I’ll trust you on it. See above comments on input from various sources for executives. I assume you’ll agree that Fauci, not being God, is not correct 100% of the time. If he is wrong about this? What if he was wrong about something else? And millions are bankrupted and standing in bread lines? Then what happens? Drug use? Suicide? Someone has to make that call considering his and all the other advice and live with the consequences. You, clearly, would have made the other decision. But you didn’t get elected President or Governor. Clearly we would have been better off if you had been. You have done us a great wrong by denying us your service.
Here you’re providing context for Cuomo’s decision, which you seem unable to do for anyone else. I don’t see where you provide the context that DeSantis did what he did *because he didn’t want to bankrupt thousands of businesses and millions of people*. Your “explanation” is that he is unable to count to 14. I personally think Cuomo’s decision was horrible. But I wouldn’t accuse him of being unable to count to 14 or being malicious. He looked at the situation, he listened to his advisors, he made a decision. It impacted people for both good and bad.
Some quantifiable predictions, yes.
Well, as much as the media love this kind of story, we are guaranteed to see that story. We’ll see if occurs before 8/4/20. But I suspect it will. I saw about 1000 of these stories about New York. So I’d be stunned if I don’t see them about Texas.
Well, since that has always been the advice of Fauci and part of the plan, to open up, test, move back if necessary, that wouldn’t surprise me either. We’ll see about the date.
Squishy. How is the Governor supposed to make a decision if his advisors say we’ll see “significant” increases. What does that even mean? 5%? 50%? 500%? 5000%? This is what I mean about you being about to tweak your words later. It’s not an insult, it’s how the universe and the human brain work. If it increases 5%, you’ll convince yourself you were right. That’s a significant increase! If it’s 50%, you were right again! And you didn’t even say we’d see the increase. You said we will “begin” to see the increase. That can mean almost anything.
Slightly squishy (but better). Will it be “significant” numbers of hospitals “significantly” beyond surge capacity? Will you be right if it’s two? That would be plural.
Now we’re getting somewhere. I don’t know how many there are now or if that’s a lot so I don’t know how bold that prediction is, but it’s certainly a testable hypothesis. Let us see. What if it’s 2750? Were you wrong? It would certainly be a terrible prediction to take to the Governor if you predict 750 and it turns out to be 2750! He has to make a decision today based on your guess.
You left out hydroxychloroquine. Must have been an accidental oversight. See the recent Henry Ford Health System scientific study.***A team at Henry Ford Health System in southeast Michigan said Thursday their study of 2,541 hospitalized patients found that those given hydroxychloroquine were much less likely to die. Dr. Marcus Zervos, division head of infectious disease for Henry Ford Health System, said 26% of those not given hydroxychloroquine died, compared to 13% of those who got the drug. The team looked back at everyone treated in the hospital system since the first patient in March.***
I don’t know if it helps or not. I have no direct experience. But science says ‘yes’.
Again, better. But what’s your range? Does DeSantis plan for 250? What if it’s 150? or 2500?
Now THAT’S a bold prediction. Let’s check back on 8/4/20 and see if every single county in the state, otherwise known as “everywhere”, has a problem with ICU beds.
No prizes for incorrect predictions either way. Governors and presidents have to make real decisions. You can’t plan for every eventuality. You have to make real decisions about real people and real money with the best data you have.
Agreed. This is how the universe works.
We will see. (I’ll grant you the wiggle room of 25% capacity OR outdoor seating only.)
I don’t see anything testable in there. You think Republicans are mouth breathers? Check. You think this decision is “completely dumb”? Check. We will see ads from Democrats insulting Republicans? Check.
He was roasted before it even happened, so not much of a prediction there. Also, you know he’ll be roasted whatever happens, so no points for that.
Non testable. I’m certain by the definitions of DeSantis opponents it will be a mess whatever the status.
The google machine says they have 77,000 employees so it would be statistically stunning if that were not the case.
Not sure what to say about this. If you refuse to do your job, of course your job is in danger. If you point out that you refused to do your job and got fired, does that make you a whistleblower? I’m sure there will be stories. Maybe dozens; 77,000 employees after all. Not sure if it means anything.
Okay, if this one works out I WILL get you a major award (possibly a leg lamp). Since approval ratings run from 0-100, it’s mathematically impossible for an approval rating to be negative. Unless you’re talking about a net approval rating, although you didn’t say that. I’d be surprised if it’s not already.
Don’t take it personally. I’m not even saying you’re wrong. All of your predictions could be correct. I’m just saying either hold yourself to the same standard you’re holding the decisionmakers too, or cut them the same slack you cut yourself. It’s only fair. If daily deaths don’t match your prediction of 250 and you made policy decisions based on that, you either let some people die who didn’t have to or bankrupted people you didn’t have to with all the bad that comes from that. And you’ll have to live with the consequences.
Sorry this was so long.
@ AlexWill –
Love it. No worries on the lengthy response.
> Presidents and Governors don’t have that luxury.
That’s true, but why aren’t we able to hold them accountable when their decisions not only are bad for the country, but bad for the country (or state) in very predictable ways? And yes, all I have is words, but as futile as it may seem, I do hope that my words might convince someone to vote differently, away from candidates who have gleefully eschewed a science based approach to the pandemic.
> That’s exactly what squishy means.
But we didn’t even wait 14 days! We couldn’t even manage that, so all this hand wringing about squishy or not is moot. Nobody has an exact game plan for something like this, but we couldn’t even follow this simple guideline: “Count to 14”
> Executives have to get input from the public health people, the mental health people, the economists, the policy people, the political advisors, etc., weigh the options and make the decisions.
OK. But what we can see is that the people who weighed those options, and made the decisions to open early, to stand away from mandating masks, are seeing completely predictable outbreaks of the disease. Take a look at the graph on this page comparing positive tests in the US vs Europe:
https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/30/europe/european-union-travel-us-graphic-intl/index.html
Yeah, the decisions we made had consequences.
> Here you’re providing context for Cuomo’s decision, which you seem unable to do for anyone else.
I provided plenty of context for Trump’s belief that it will ‘all just disappear’ (he’s an idiot). I mean, a week ago, Trump’s economic advisor, Kramer, went on TV and proclaimed ‘there is no second wave’. What context could we possibly come up with to absolve this kind of thing other than plain old ignorance?
> I don’t see where you provide the context that DeSantis did what he did *because he didn’t want to bankrupt thousands of businesses and millions of people*.
Well, in other areas here, I wondered aloud who is going to be spending money in a re-opened economy when the hospitals are all popping at the seams with people who cannot breathe. The economic impacts of a re-opening are going to be vanish once the upcoming wave lands with the inevitable re-closing, and this one is going to last *much longer*, because the virus has a far deeper grip in the population.
In any case, the economic arguments for re-opening have a place (if done cautiously), and it is my hope that it turns the country to a place where we can honestly discuss if having an economy based on continuous consumption wherein half the population is paycheck to paycheck is a good model or not. And the thing is, we (in Florida), did not re-open cautiously; we had no strong mandates for social distancing and/or masks, and we opened up bars.
> But I wouldn’t accuse him of being unable to count to 14 or being malicious. He looked at the situation, he listened to his advisors, he made a decision.
A decision to ignore the guidelines. Do you think any of his advisors told him: “By July 4, our cases will have increased ten fold, per day?” If they had, do you think he would have steamed ahead? In our situation, cases increased by 20 fold. I mean, I guess I wonder if you think there was a scenario they could have painted for him that would have caused him to *not* re-open? I don’t think so, because he was so intent on pleasing Trump (and Trump voters). You are really interested in the empiric of this, what value of predicted daily hospitalizations would have made DeSantis hold up on the re-open?
> Well, as much as the media love this kind of story, we are guaranteed to see that story. We’ll see if occurs before 8/4/20. But I suspect it will. I saw about 1000 of these stories about New York. So I’d be stunned if I don’t see them about Texas.
That’s what is so horrifying, it isn’t like this was a big surprise (‘what will happen if we open the bars?’), we had plenty of examples of what the virus does with un-inhibited spread. You go on to make economic arguments; do you think the boost of having bars open in Texas for two months is going to make up for the upcoming lockdown when reality sets in?
> If it increases 5%, you’ll convince yourself you were right. That’s a significant increase! If it’s 50%, you were right again! And you didn’t even say we’d see the increase. You said we will “begin” to see the increase. That can mean almost anything.
If your mandate is to protect the health of the population, I would think that you’d be shooting for significant decreases in that population going to the hospital. I can’t help but think of Shrek, wherein the small king is willing to send his nights into battle against the dragon. “Some of you may die, but it is a risk I am willing to take!”
I mean, I’d have respect for DeSantis had ever came out with any non-squishy values; “I believe in X weeks we will be at Y cases per day, and I have determined the benefits to the economy will make that trade off acceptable”. Did he do that? If he didn’t, why not hold him as accountable for being squishy as you’d like to hold me?
What amount of daily hospitalizations and deaths would make that decision seem good to you, I wonder?
> don’t know how many there are now or if that’s a lot so I don’t know how bold that prediction is, but it’s certainly a testable hypothesis. Let us see. What if it’s 2750? Were you wrong?
This isn’t a two tailed test in my opinion; if it’s 2750, then I was wrong in absolute terms, but correct in terms of the direction of our course.
> You left out hydroxychloroquine.
The study you mention, had double the steroid use in the treatment group! Understanding that end stage failure and death is largely a function of cytokine storm / the bodies immune system over reacting, and not the virus proper, over using a drug known to tamper down the immune system this is a huge confounding factor. I mean, they added steroids it because they had a good rationale toward it’s use for COVID and it would have been immoral to have a treatment group without it! Hydroxychloroquine is a dud.
> Now THAT’S a bold prediction. Let’s check back on 8/4/20 and see if every single county in the state, otherwise known as “everywhere”, has a problem with ICU beds.
OK!
> You think Republicans are mouth breathers?
Well, the ones dumb enough to get into an arena next to each other without wearing masks, yeah.
> If you point out that you refused to do your job and got fired, does that make you a whistleblower
I do not think we should conflate ‘refusing to do your job’ with ‘being forced to come into work while sick with a known pathogen in the middle of a pandemic’. Again, this will be a good opportunity to see if the country has the stomach to look at our health care system, and system of insurance, and determine if we are doing all we can to protect our citizens.
> Since approval ratings run from 0-100, it’s mathematically impossible for an approval rating to be negative.
Hah. Yeah, well, he won seniors by 16 points in 16, so yeah, net. But OK. Love the leg lamp joke.
> Don’t take it personally. I’m not even saying you’re wrong.
Sure!
> I’m just saying either hold yourself to the same standard you’re holding the decisionmakers too, or cut them the same slack you cut yourself.
No. Here is why. The same people making these decisions that are turning out so awfully have a history of doing the same thing (making awful decisions) other places. Climate change? It’s a hoax! Gay people? They don’t deserve protection from discrimination! Does anyone think that the 1T tax cut Trump passed helped anyone but the top 1%? The corporations who saw their tax rates slashed simply poured it into buybacks, and immediately came running to Big Government for bail outs the second the pandemic hit. These people are wrong, consistently wrong, on every big issue, and they keep doubling down on being dumb about it.
You don’t get slack cut for you by consistently legislating based on scientific ignorance, faux morality, and economic theory that has done nothing but increase inequality for the past four decades.
> If daily deaths don’t match your prediction of 250 and you made policy decisions based on that, you either let some people die who didn’t have to or bankrupted people you didn’t have to with all the bad that comes from that.
This reminds me of something Fauci said early on, it was along the lines of ‘if we go too far in protecting people, we may never know, but if we don’t do enough to protect people, we will never live it down’. That is what we are witnessing here.
> Sorry this was so long.
No problem!
Thanks Steven, that makes sense. Those numbers seemed low for total admissions in a state of 21 million people. And frankly, I would be much more interested in current hospitalizations than total hospitalizations.
Tara, thanks. The numbers above represent all hospital admissions in Florida each day? Will they report hospitalizations due to Covid or hospitalizations with Covid? I have heard a number of hospital heads say recently that around 20% of their admissions for non Covid reasons are testing positive.
Tony and Bob, I’m pretty sure the hospitalizations number on the dashboard includes ALL hospitalizations, not just COVID ones. But I have read that this week, Florida was supposed to start reporting which of those are Covid. It would also be nice to know the number currently hospitalized.
Tara, the numbers are COVID hospitalizations, not all hospitalizations. On the DOH’s daily report it make it clear that it is a total of all people who have been hospitalized for COVID. The news this week about reporting change is that they will start reporting the number of those who are currently hospitalized for COVID, not just the total. Those are important numbers (especially the number in ICU) for people who are carefully watching our hospital capacity.
There is a project from FIU showing numbers of current hospitalizations in South Florida. They are using hospital census data. The numbers don’t all add up completely, but it’s useful to get a rough idea. The number currently hospitalized in South Florida is shown as 2,100 as of June 30.
https://rwilli5.github.io/MiamiCovidProject/South%20Florida%20Covid-19%20Trajectory/
There’s a difference between reported cases and actual infections. I live in Southern Connecticut, and here just like NY and NJ, there was almost no testing to be found back in March and early April. People who had symptoms but did not require hospitalization were told to self quarantine, and never got tested. Thousands of infections never got counted. The same thing happened in Italy and Spain. Reported cases spiked weeks after the surge of the outbreak not because more people were newly infected during lockdowns, but because there was more available testing to capture people who were less sick. The US is now testing vastly more people than it, or Italy and Spain did in the early phases of their infections. Deaths will absolutely lag behind reported cases now. I really, really hope I’m wrong about this, but I expect that you’re going to see the ramp up in deaths continue. It’s unlikely that you’ll see anything close to Tri-State region numbers, but some bad days of 100+ would not be surprising. Stay careful folks.
I agree. That’s why I asked. All of the other numbers they had on the site lined up with the Fl DOH, so it looked legitimate, however, this number stuck out to me. I haven’t seen a current number on any other site. Thanks.
I dont. I just know cumulative. I dont have visibility as to people who check out or current.
That number seems hard for me to believe though as almost 700 hospitalizations have happened in the last 2 days
Tony, according to the Florida Hospitalizations Y Chart website, as of 6pm yesterday there were 472 Covid 19 patients currently hospitalized in the state. Have you seen any other places which list current hospitalizations?
Steven – Thats a valid logical hypothesis for sure. Ultimately we dont know. My counter argument to that logic would be advanced treatments and that primarily we are seeing younger asymptomatic transfer in Florida.
In a way this is exactly my point/frustration. It is different in Florida than it is in other states both because the timing of the outbreak and the strategies our governor has time and time again employed to protect the vulnerable. It remains to be seen what that means but the data is different.
Tara – your right on that. I keep hanging on to the hospitalization number. Yes it creeped up to a 7 day average of 200 hospitalizations which historically is going to translate into 50 deaths. The primary claim of the trolls as I understand it is we are a ticking time bomb that inevitably has to reach new york numbers (the alternative is that we actually managed the virus better than New York and that is wholly unacceptable to the trolls). If we were to get to New York numbers we would have to average like 300 deaths a day for 45 days and the corresponding 1200 hospitalizations.
As Deep State points out – we have seen cases double every week for 4 weeks but hospitalizations in the entire time have not even doubled once – going from a 130 7 day avg to a 200 single day avg in that time.
Actually, Tony, the reason there didn’t appear to be a lag between cases and deaths in places such as spain, italy and nyc is because the virus was there spreading for a good 6 weeks undetected.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/some-new-yorkers-had-coronavirus-antibodies-in-february-study-shows-11593595801
It is a lengthy illness. We were already detecting and testing so we are actually seeing the lag of time it takes between those getting sick and passing away. And the death rate in Florida, as of the last week, is increasing. The country as a whole has been decreasing but in Florida it has been increasing as of the last week.
Hopefully, due to better knowledge of the virus and therapeutics, as well as older individuals hopefully still socially distancing, the death rate in Florida will not reach anywhere near those numbers in the first hit places. They didn’t know it was coming and were not prepared. Also, hospital capacity has a lot to do with it. Once hospitals get overloaded the death rate will go up because they can’t get everyone the same standard of care. If it gets to that point in Florida I’m sure the governor will do some sort of mitigation.
I fear that just as the hospitalizations and death trend upwards, so will the arrival of Internet trolls (not you, Steve) to this forum, which has up to now managed to stay civilized. Quite a feat!
For those seeking detailed information about the daily case numbers, positivity rate, numbers of death and other information, I suggest looking at http://ww11.doh.state.fl.us/comm/_partners/covid19_report_archive/state_reports_latest.pdf. That is a link to the DOH report that is updated daily. There are many other reports available, as well as previous daily reports if you use the same url but remove everything after the last /
Tony, you bring up valid points, which are supported by the data, about the delay of deaths after new cases. My hesitation on that is that it doesn’t seem logical. How can it be that people are dying as soon as they are diagnosed? Could it be perhaps that those statistics were from the beginning of our response to the pandemic (I saw several times you were pointing to April, specifically the first week). It’s very likely that at that time, when testing was just ramping up and we were just beginning to understand what was happening, many people were being tested as they showed up at the hospital in advanced stages of the disease. At that time the only ones who were being tested were those showing marked symptoms or those who had been exposed to a confirmed case. There simply weren’t enough tests available at the time. In light of that, it makes sense that there was a much shorter gap between diagnosis and death. Today that is not the case, which means that we still might be looking at a spike in the death rate 3-4 weeks after the recent spike in cases. What do you think?
I am not saying this in hopes that there will be more deaths, but am simply trying to understand the spread of the virus and hoping that we will all take this seriously and do everything we can to slow the spread.
Thank God I don’t live in Florida. You guys are about to hit overload in the hospitals and the deaths will skyrocket by the middle of July…
New York – 228,000 cases in April and 16,000 deaths – also in April. Only 5,000 deaths in May – Why so few – I mean its “settled science” that the deaths lag the cases by a month right?
Because Im neurotic – I went and looked at the data for spain and their peak cases and their peak deaths occured simultaneously in the first 3 weeks of April. When their cases spiked – their death spiked – so you right in a sense spain and florida are apples and oranges.
This magical 1 month lag of deaths from the spike while often touted anecdotally – doesnt actually hold water when you look at almost every country and and state in the northeast. The cases and deaths spike simultaneously.
Tony – see Cheri’s comment below regarding when death occur.
Also – I specifically did not treat *deaths* as the denominator, but rather the cases up until June 1st (60-70k). I took the current number of deaths and divided it by that case total from a month ago, because people take time to die. Yes, a somewhat crude method.
And you’re right, different states and countries act differently with this virus, or rather – the virus acts differently on them. Florida certainly may not produce similar results to NY specifically – it obviously has different demographics, so you can’t assume things will be exactly the same.
But what you also cannot do, is assume widespread infection will *not* result in widespread death. Why can’t you assume that? Because it has not proved to be the case anywhere else in the world (with the possible exception of Singapore (almost a totalitarian state) and some extremely dry countries in the Middle East (Qatar, Bahrain, Oman, UAE), whose data are suspect anyway.
Fennec Im sorry but your logic is flawed. Not personal it just simply flawed.
1. The deaths are the numerator not the denominator (work it out and you will see what i mean).
2. most importantly since number one was being petty – you cant just take the florida cases and apply the same variables as in Europe or the north east. We have better treatments for people, most are reporting the strain is weaker, we understand how to protect nursing homes (great point jerome), we have testing to protect people from going into nursing homes sick.
I dont understand the desire for people in this thread to constantly just multiply our florida cases by europe or new york variables when time and again we have treated the virus different in florida.
For instance peak cases in new york was the first week of April – they had 68,000 cases in seven days. Peak deaths in new york was the very next week – they had an unbelievable 6,600 deaths the second week of April. Florida has had 56,000 cases in the last 7 days. We had 290 deaths in the last week. There is definitely no where near enough hospitalizations to get us even past 400 deaths next week – let alone 6,600. In fact they had twice as many deaths in one week as we have had all along on 170,000 cases. Out Data is MILES apart.
None of this is to diminish that we are seeing our hospitalizations and deaths go up and we dont want that and need to see what practices we can do to minimize. But simply to think that our numbers are even remotely on pace with any european country or any state in the northeast or mid atlantic is statistically improbable.
If there is one thing im certain of is different states are having way different results. It appears time and again that instead of accepting that and actually trying to find out why so that we can minimize the deaths in those areas have done poorly – I am accused of some sort of statistical wizardry or just “well your numbers will equal the worst states eventually” I say “why – what logic do you base that on” and people say ” well you just want to kill people” on the contrary i want to understand what we are clearly doing well (even with an upswing in hospitalizations and deaths we are light years ahead of alot of big states) and SAVE LIVES. My inference is we dont want to go down that road because the states that have performed poorly are overwhelmingly democratic.
Why are they not showing DAILY DEATH RATE and DAILY CASE DETECTED RATES.
DEATH RATES HAVE BEEN TRENDING DOWN.. not INCREASING. This would state the detection of cases are LESS SEVERE if NO Significant DEATHS are being recorded..
PLEASE A comparison of DEATHS VS CASES DAILY….ther is a lag of course of days.
Florida Covid Dashboard used to show this.
Detection of CASES means little if severity of illness is a nuisance, and not serious.
How are you getting your daily fatalities number and data? I can’t find up to date info on this anywhere, and it appears the state just removed its daily deaths chart from the dashboard.
I’ve been following this thread passively for quite some time. I think Tony has done a great job of analyzing the data from a statistical approach. The key to making good decisions is in good analysis. I wanted to add some commentary into some deeper drill down on the fatalities reported. Has anyone noticed that 52% of the deaths reported are long term care facility related? This seems to be a common theme across the country, and one of the key reasons why the NE states lead the nation in deaths/mil population (NY, NJ, MA making debatably bad policy decisions as it relates to long term care facilities). Not to minimize the threat of this virus (which is definitely real), but I think there is clear distinction of high risk vs low risk populations, and proper care/resources need to be allocated to the higher risk population.
Italy – 35,000 deaths – 14 % of cases
Spain – 28,000 deaths – 9 % of cases
UK – 44,000 deaths – 13 % of cases
France – 30,000 deaths – 18 % of cases
Florida – 3,600 Deaths – 2.3 % of cases
Probably would have been 3,580 deaths if the nail salons were closed.
I like my chances in Florida .
I agree we screwed up opening up the bars – that was a no brainer and definitely cost lives
Think we can responsibly social distance on beaches. Think we can be safe in gyms.
Why wouldnt you close the grocery stores? same chance there as most gyms and it can all be delivered.
Closing things with no regard to the long term effects of those closures in lieu of practical social distancing and working to minimize deaths not cases is not a strategy its a dream. The average American does not have more than $3,000 in savings and the effects would be devastating.
Most of the 170,000 Floridians who’ve contracted the coronavirus have been diagnosed within the past month. June started with just 57,000 cases. Those who fall ill take time to die. And whereas Spain, Italy and France are mostly done with the current wave, i.e. – have mostly finished counting their dead – Florida is just starting.
So you can’t compare your “chances” here and there, because it’s apples and oranges. But if you really insist on comparing, then the Florida denominator should be closer to 60-70k, which would put the actual death toll at at least 5%.
Wait a month or two and with these newer 100k diagnosed, you can expect another 5k dead *at the very least* (if hospitals aren’t overwhelmed).
But of course, the way things are going right now, by then you’d have another 300k diagnosed. So.
Steven – I should have waited for your comment – as you are generally the voice of reason.
I just cant fathom why there are those that celebrate bad numbers as vindication and I also am not clear on what this plan is that would make all of this completely unavoidable.
So can someone lay out to me what the exact “plan” that should have been implemented to avoid this?
@Tony –
“I just cant fathom why there are those that celebrate bad numbers as vindication and I also am not clear on what this plan is that would make all of this completely unavoidable.”
Is it really that hard to understand? It isn’t like we don’t have existing, valid examples of states, and countries, that are avoiding exactly what we are going through. Look to Europe, who had an actual lockdown, and did not open up the second a subgroup of the population complained.
By way of example, see this easy to read graph regarding EU cases and US cases over time:
https://tucson.com/lifestyles/health-med-fit/graph-shows-stark-difference-in-us-and-eu-responses-to-covid-19/video_b92eb19d-c2db-5247-9f83-cd24a04b4d1b.html
Can you see any difference between the two?
The ‘exact’ plan, would have looked like this:
Don’t open the beaches.
Don’t open the bars.
Don’t open the gyms.
Don’t open the restaurants.
Don’t open nail saloons.
Mandate masks.
Give people a functional social safety net.
Have functional contact tracing in place.
Have enough tests available.
Re-open slowly, based on metrics such as actually going down. If the metrics go up, re-evaluate and shut back down.
Don’t have a plan based on “hopefully it will go away soon”
It isn’t hard to imagine what it looks like, all you have to do is look to other places that have done it successfully! Our economy isn’t going to be going gangbusters in a month if we continue to experience exponential growth in infections no matter how much some people want it to be so.
What makes you think opening later would have mattered? Understandably, NY and NJ were not ready, since they were hit hardest from the beginning. No one could have predicted what would happen when Florida opened, since it was not hit hard at that point. The other states are learning from the states that opened first.
No state has the “let’s hope it goes away” plan. It’s absurd. Florida is shutting high impact areas down.
Hi Tara –
> What makes you think opening later would have mattered?
You start with a lower viral load in the population to begin growth. You allow for the creation of contact tracing programs that actually have a chance of identifying persons likely to be infected. You allow for the creation of a backlog of tests so your testing centers don’t reach capacity by noon.
> No one could have predicted what would happen when Florida opened, since it was not hit hard at that point.
This is demonstrably untrue. It was predicted quite a bit, the timelines of *when* it would happen were off, but the nature of viral spread and exponential growth weren’t somehow mysterious because we live in Florida.
> The other states are learning from the states that opened first.
Are they? Take a look at this graph of US vs EU cases of covid and tell me if you can detect any difference:
https://tucson.com/lifestyles/health-med-fit/graph-shows-stark-difference-in-us-and-eu-responses-to-covid-19/video_b92eb19d-c2db-5247-9f83-cd24a04b4d1b.html
Europe’s lockdowns were very strict compared to ours, they didn’t start re-opening until later, and they were a lot better about wearing masks. Look where they are now.
> No state has the “let’s hope it goes away” plan.
That’s Trumps plan! He said it less than three days ago:
“I think we’re going to be very good with the coronavirus. I think that at some point that’s going to sort of just disappear, I hope,” Trump said in an interview with Fox Business Network.”
If you don’t think that is roughly equivalent to DeSantis’s plans, maybe you could enlighten me. Is DeSantis going to tell Disney not to re-open? Will he mandate masks? Will he reclose bars? Or gyms?
https://www.local10.com/news/local/2020/06/29/florida-gov-ron-desantis-leaving-mask-mandates-public-closures-up-to-local-leaders-amid-latest-covid-19-spike/
No. He’s leaving everything up to local governments.
You seem like a fun guy to hang out with.
The upward trend is troubling and lets pray for those lives. Our vital statistics for a state of 20,0000,000 plus are as good as any state (Texas is a little better) and i challenge anyone to compare them to any other state.
Im sure you probably wanted the other guy who almost won the governor election but hes indisposed in a hotel room somewhere.
Desantis 2024!
July 1: 10K+
June 25: 5,004
June 18: 3,207
June 11: 1,698
We are roughly doubling every week, though eventually we will find a place where there won’t be enough tests to keep up. (The President will be pleased!) Or respiratory technicians. Or nurses. In a month our hospitals will look like those in Italy with every room, corridor, and bathroom stall filled with a person struggling to breathe.
One wonders if Pissy Pants DeSantis will admit that his brown nosed decision to re-open was poorly conceived, and how his rant about how wrong the media was about how exponential growth works stunk of ignorance and indeed, ‘hoping it will all just go away’. It seems likely that the belief that there is a 14 day window from exposure to symptoms is off, and it may be closer to a month.
The important thing for our ‘leaders’ to try to get into their think skulls is that even if we totally locked down again tomorrow, there is *at least* two full weeks of these kinds of increases *already baked in*. People that get exposed today, won’t start showing symptoms for two weeks (or more), those that are susceptible, won’t start going to the hospital for three weeks (or more), those that die, won’t start dying for over a month. Well, they might start dying earlier, because they won’t be able to take up an ICU room for a week, because there will be none available when they need one.
This was all completely predictable. The virus cares not for political ideology; it cares not for whether or not you think your freedumbs are being imposed on for the inconvenience of wearing a mask, or going without having your nails done. No one could have prevented the pandemic, but as Americans we have failed to take simple, straightforward steps that could prevent the upcoming catastrophe. But we didn’t. And lots of us, including many on this site, actively took offense at being told that application of the scientific method could help alleviate suffering, reduce illnesses and deaths, and instead chanted moronic platitudes about the Constitution. Europe is opening back up, but are closing entrance to US visitors due to our haphazard (or non-existent) ‘handling’ of the virus.
Our national, and state wide response, is a complete embarrassment and *that* can be laid plainly at the feet of Republican Presidents, Governors, and voters, who somehow came to conflate the dispassionate, known actions of a virus with conspiracies involving Bill Gates, George Soros, the lamestream media involvement in a hoax, and somehow coming to believe that vilifying infectious disease specialists would somehow ‘make it all go away’.
See you next week!
DeepState, I share some of your frustrations, but name-calling and throwing insults is disrespectful and counterproductive. Over the past few days, we’ve actually come to a place of calm discussion in these comments, even among people with differing views (feel free to scroll up and read through the comments). Inflammatory statements and harsh condemnations don’t change people’s minds and it won’t help us going forward. It also is not contributing to the ongoing conversation here. If you need to rant, please take it somewhere else. This is one of the few places I can have an sincere conversation with people about the data and I’d prefer it not to turn into a political flame war.
In regards to the new data released today: I’m praying for our state and country. It still might be possible to get this under control and bring the numbers down if we take it seriously. We’ve seen some good movement in South Florida (where I live) regarding public use of masks and slowing the spread of July 4th weekend. Hopefully, it will bring measurable results in the numbers in future weeks.
Hi Steven –
> I share some of your frustrations, but name-calling and throwing insults is disrespectful and counterproductive.
I am so sick and tired of people being able to openly disregard simple, easy to implement measures such as wearing masks, or abstaining from visiting a bar under the guise of their Constitutional freedoms being under assault; the self entitlement, victim-hood mentality is childish and the epitome of narcissism, but yet, they should be immune from criticism because they’ve wrapped themselves up in a first graders rendition of the Constitution. But the moment that someone has the audacity to call that behavior what it is, scientifically ignorant, intellectually bankrupt, and dangerous for everyone, only then there is a problem with civility. Is it respectful, or productive, to decide not to wear a mask in public, and openly object to such provisions? Was it productive to open the beaches and bars when *experts in infectious disease* told us exactly what the outcome would be? Ignorant people making dumb choices got us here, and pussyfooting around it might just enables poor decision making in the future. Why not call a spade a spade?
These behaviors, and policy decisions are affecting everyone, and they were *the wrong decisions*. It wasn’t some big open question, ‘what might happen if we open bars?’. People who pay respect to the scientific method *knew what would happen*. So, yeah, my language is inflammatory, but experts respectfully told our policy makers what would happen if we opened when we did, and they ignored that advice on the ridiculous notion that hope and tourist dollars would somehow make the physics of viral spread stop happening.
At what point do we decide that stronger language is necessary to convince people that what they are doing is dangerous for everyone? Ever?
> It also is not contributing to the ongoing conversation here.
The people who helped our wise Governor by decide that it was time to re-open by ‘making their voices heard’ comment here a lot, and they deserve to be ridiculed for that; I’m pretty sure the snowflakes can take it. This wasn’t a discussion about the right way to pronounce tomato; this was a public health and safety issue for everyone in the country and state, and despite abundant and clear evidence of what would happen, our policy makers did the exact dumbest thing at the behest of the loudest, least informed voices. Why not make sure that the other side, the side that has the backing of the scientific community, also is loud, and at times, inflammatory?
The ongoing conversation here is largely one wherein someone’s ill informed and blatantly false opinion is treated the same as predictions made from application of the scientific method and observable reality.
> I’m praying for our state and country.
That isn’t a plan. That’s pretty much been our plan from the get go and it hasn’t done very much.
> It still might be possible to get this under control and bring the numbers down if we take it seriously.
But first, our policy makers have to take it seriously, and they aren’t doing that. (yet)
> Hopefully, it will bring measurable results in the numbers in future weeks.
We can hope!
Yeah the 7 day avg on hospitalizations went from 180 to 197. Not good news for sure.
the percentages of death rate and hospitalization rate are super small compared to other states but the upward trend is tough. these 2 weeks are critical.
why did they stop showing the DEATHS chart here unless to hide the fact that deaths are flatlined? they want to scare the behigies (sp?) out of you to get you to comply.
https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/96dd742462124fa0b38ddedb9b25e429
Especially the hospitalization number, troubling.
Today’s numbers — Ouch!
I agree, Bob, and I am a little concerned about the upward trend in hospitalizations. Stands to reason, even with milder cases, that trend will eventually lead to an increase in death rate, however slight or not slight.
Amazing to see this turn into reasonable conversation and discussions. Thanks to all who are making useful comments and helping people see different perspectives.
Steven, I agree with many of your points, we should all take personal responsibility to try to stem the rise of new cases, I don’t know how anyone can disagree with that. Wearing masks in public, social distancing, etc. should not be debated. I also think local officials need to be at the forefront of regulating behavior to the extent they are legally able, because different areas of Florida are in very different places with this issue.
I share Tony’s view that comparing the US to other countries is difficult. As you said, Russia (as well as a number of other countries) cannot be believed. I have a very close friend in Milan and another in the Lake Como area, and both of them have told me repeatedly that the numbers coming from Italy from day one were not to be believed, mostly because local officials counted and estimated however they saw fit, so what you got, and are still getting is inconsistent. Also in Milan, anyone can get tested, in the Lake Como area, even today only those in the hospital are tested, so it is difficult to compare. Anecdotal, but interesting enough to make me skeptical.
As far as recoveries are concerned, most areas of Florida as I understand it don’t even count cases recovered. If I am wrong about that, please point me to the data, because I have not seen consistent data that is reliable, if it is there I am really interested in seeing it.
I am concerned about the rise in cases. I do believe that there are many reasons for it, but clearly one is increased community transmission. On the flip side, the heads of hospitals in Miami Dade, Broward, and Orange counties, as well as those in the Pensacola area have all said in recent days that those being hospitalized with Covid recently are very different patients than they saw in March, April and early May. They are younger, less severe, and much less likely to need admittance to ICUs. In addition, the use of ventilators is a fraction of what it was early on and they have learned to treat patients much more effectively than before. They have all said in addition, that many of the positive tests are from asymptomatic patients. All of that said, I am still concerned about the spike in numbers, because it threatens increase spread. I am just not as convinced that the death rate is going to automatically spike because of the cases. I hope that is true, we shall see.
In the meantime, I hope this spike is a wakeup call and people start acting more responsibly to get the new cases under control.
I went down the rabbit hole of looking at other countries but really hard to trust the data we are getting. Italy for instance has a death rate of like 14 %. Statistically that seems improbable to me. My inference (basically my opinion) is that they are only testing the people who show symptoms. Getting a handle on political structure is important if comparing countries as all are not taking the same approach to who they test or how they report the results.
I think that is also what is happening in North East and Mid Atlantic States is an emphasis on testing 1st responders and people with symptoms. I am willing to admit that I am totally guessing but if you focus your efforts on only testing symptomatic and 1st responders you will see low cases and a high death rate as you will not be capturing the vast amount of asymptomatic cases. Conversely if you have the capacity or strategy (or just by accident because work places require it) to expand the testing to asymptomatic testing – you will see rise in cases and lower death rate.
In my head that seems super logical. In time I may be exposed as just pumping sunshine up every bodies you know what.
Tony and Bob, I respect you both for being willing to apologize about previous comments. That is not something that happens often in Internet discussions! I also apologize for my sarcastic comment in response to one of Tony’s post. As Pete mentioned a few comments previous, I am also frustrated by what I see as ignoring dangerous trends, but that is no excuse for taking out my frustrations on you.
I truly do attempt to look at these things objectively. Lest you think that I only praise one side: I can happily agree that DeSantis did a very good job protecting our nursing homes from Covid (as Tara mentioned previously). It is one thing that has kept our death rate down. Cuomo did a miserable job at that.
In order to direct the conversation away from political divisions, I wonder if any of you have been comparing our data to other countries and regions around the world? For instance, in Europe (excluding Russia, because who trusts them anyway, right!) they only had 5,827 cases. That is with a population of 600 million (again excluding Russia)! The question is, how can an entire continent have fewer new cases in one day than the state of FL which only has 21 million people? The answer is that they took the virus seriously, took strong measures against it and got control of it. Our response to this virus should not be dictated by political leanings, but by what is being proven to work against it!
It’s been previously said here that the number of deaths is the most important statistic and the nearly flat (not declining, but flat) average of daily deaths show that there is nothing to worry about. One thing that hasn’t been talked about here is number of those who have recovered compared to number who have died. This means those who have finished being sick and we see how it ended for them. In FL we are at a 12.7% rate (27,423 no longer active cases with 3,505 deaths). That is an outrageously high rate! Obviously, that won’t continue, but what if we take an outrageously low number going forward and call it a 1% death rate. That means 1 out of every 100 people will die as the virus spreads through the state. For every 100 people you know (relatives, friends, coworkers) 1 of them will die. Would you like to watch the suffering of those families knowing that you could have done something to prevent it? Will you take responsibility for those lives if you are not actively doing something to prevent it?
I agree that the media is politicizing this and stirring people up into a fervor. We should stop listening to the media and instead look at the data and think for ourselves. There is a middle ground between complete lockdown and letting everything open up blindly. Irregardless of what our political leaders and the media are saying, the data is weighted heavily that we should be extremely cautious about this NOW. Rising cases will equal rising deaths. If we wait until the deaths are increasing, it will already be too late. We each have a personal responsibility to avoid gatherings, wear a mask, social distance and urge others to do the same. For me, it’s worth the temporary discomfort and inconvenience in order to save lives.
Steven, after thinking about it a little more, I am very careful not to get into silly arguments on the internet, mostly because they never solve anything, so I apologize for calling you out-you have your opinions, and as I said in a prior post, that is certainly your right. I do have an honest question for you, however. I recognize that how you do things is important, but only important if if leads to accomplishing something. I sincerely do not understand the love for Cuomo’s leadership and performance related to the pandemic. As far as DeSantis is concerned, so far, I believe his results have been very good. Time will tell for both of them because this pandemic is far from over.
Getting back to Cuomo, I realize that he was dealt a more difficult hand than most. If you look at the results, I consider them to be abysmal. For me, the only thing that really matters is deaths. I don’t know how anyone can say that Cuomo did a good job in this regard. In addition, we will never be able to calculate the financial and human toll that his nearly four month shutdown has caused. But it is staggering, many believe far in excess of any toll directly resulting from the virus. You can debate that, but anecdotally the stories about the devastation to businesses and families from the extended lockdown are heartbreaking and lasting.
At this point, the deaths and lockdown tolls in Florida are disheartening, but a small fraction of what has happened in New York. Many argue that Florida has not seen the worst yet, but so far facts do not show that deaths are going to get anywhere close to New York levels. Remember, at one point New York was losing close to 800 people per day! As I said earlier, time will tell, but as Tony’s facts and statistics consistently indicate, Florida is not headed in that direction now. If that changes in the future, I will be the first to demand other actions from DeSantis, I hope it does not come to that.
Pete, you are correct in that I hope this thing does not result in a big spike in deaths and perhaps I am putting my hopes above the inevitable outcome. I wait every day with bated breath for the Florida numbers to come out. This is an extremely stressful way to live and it’s been going on for months.
Pete – That’s a fair point.
My hope is that the difference in data trend from New York to Florida (and there is definitely a difference) is precisely because Desantis is protecting people. The difference in nursing home treatment is an actual thing that happened – not a political dream of the republicans. Time and Data will tell for sure and I hope im right for the sake of overall well being of floridians. We could use some good news – all of us.
Tony – you are right to call me out on the arrogance of my “Tick Tick Tick” comment. It was borne out the frustration of the continual rationalization of data to deny very simple actions we can take to halt the spread. It was not written out of a hope people would die. It was written to scare people into taking actions that will save their lives. Wear a mask. Wash your hands. Avoid gatherings of people indoors.
I watched in vain hope as the virus ticked up in NY, and state officials put off making tough decisions, before the data and the virus showed that ignoring common sense health guidelines leads to hospitalizations and death. I had an Aunt in PA die because of this virus. And now, with relatives in Florida, I read the Tonys and Taras split hairs and parse the data and rationalize how this thing can’t bring down our economy and its not as bad as the liberals and MSM are saying.
The virus is winning. It beat arrogant Cuomo in NYC, and it will beat arrogant DeSantis. No amount of your ratio comparisons can stop the inevitable spread and the inevitable hospitalizations and the inevitable deaths coming. Will you feel vindicated because Florida’s death rate is lower than New York’s? I won’t, because people like you and DeSantis are failing to help people protect themselves. Fewer could die with common sense measures that have become politicized. Wear a mask. Wash your hands. Avoid gatherings.
And pray. Pray for the souls taken, and for the souls that will be taken because of political posturing and an unwillingness to honestly deal with the data in front of us.
Steven I will take your word that you are not partisan because your feelings aren’t strong enough even though your words clearly support one side and criticize the other. Hope that makes you feel better-feelings seem important to you.
Steven – I forgot one other point. On the Republican / Democratic front – there is a glaring difference in the data as to how republican states are doing vs democrat. If saving lives is the goal I cant understand why all americans dont want to know why that is. why the media doesnt want to know why that is. My suspicion from watching this unfold is if it was the other way around there wouldnt be anything else we would talk about. thats wrong.
I will say this one (more?) time and move on.
It is the media inflaming us and all for profit. There has been a blatant abuse of power that includes fear mongering, race baiting, empowering people to mock and demean those whose opinions differ, a denial of civil rights by establishing a new freedom of speech culture that silences entire demographics, and last but not least, a forceful effort to influence an election.
It is very easy to go along with this when it coincides with your opinion. But what about the next time, or the time after, when it doesn’t?
Steven – Your right to call me out on the generalizing democrats as part of my comments. Its a fair critcism. The Pete comment of tick, tick, tick (hoping for deaths) and the Dave taunting that Floridians should get a death they deserve got me fired up and its not fair to lump them in with democrats instead of just evil unhappy people. I apologize to democrats but not to dave and pete (whatever party they may be).
I am confused at the notion that we have this noble choice to all stay home and destroy the economy regardless of data or push the economy and recklessly kill people. I will support being cautious when the data suggests it but in all other matters we have a responsibility to all help each other by doing our part in the economy.
This virus kills certain people very well (thank goodness not as well since we have learned in the last months) and others it is relatively harmless. I wholeheartedly reject the notion that we cant use that critical piece of information to do our best to minimize death while still focusing on the economy. I believe the answer to that is in data.
In the last 14 days our 7 day case number has gone from 2000 to 7000 while 7 day hospitalizations has went from 150 to 180. Now I hurt for anyone who has to go to the hospital and the data says that the 30 extra hospitalizations are going to = 1 more death per 7 days. It’s just not enough to stir panic. Easy to say im a killer and i dont care about that extra death per day and someone is entitled to that opinion (doesnt make either of us right just makes us each have an opinion). I just believe in a society of 330 million there are just hundreds of “greater good” decisions that have to be made daily.
The comments on New York are just my frustration with the lack of accountability to the numbers. It seems to me that the media and left judge cuomo by his intentions and desantis by his actions and the data overwhelmingly suggests desantis outperformed cuomo. Literally not one measure that suggests otherwise statistically.
The narrative that all governors are the same and the only thing anyone can do is be safe is childish. Wars are fought and won with strategy and its clear that we have 50 different strategies going on and some are doing better than others.
Steven do you know the meaning of the word partisan? It means supportive of a party, idea or person, that’s all. Your comments have suggested support for Cuomo and lack thereof for DeSantis. I’m just pointing out that you have accused a poster of something you have done. Can’t have it both ways. By the way, I don’t find anything wrong with partisan comments. Everyone has a right to their opinion
Hi Bob. Yes, I do know the meaning of the word. Partisan as a noun means a “strong”, or “firm adherent” to a party, idea or person. Partisan as an adjective (how both you and I used it) is described as Merriam-Webster as “feeling, showing, or deriving from strong and sometimes blind adherence to a particular party, faction, cause, or person”.
Saying that somebody did a good job at something is not partisan, it’s just making a statement. Repeatedly taking the Republican or Democratic side of an issue in spite of evidence is partisan. It is the major thing that is tearing our country apart and we need to get past it if we are going to move forward as a country.
Steven, I guess if a Governor isn’t doing something himself, he isn’t responsible for it? Pray tell what results you were praising him for then in an earlier post, what did he personally do to fix the problem besides make a decision to send covid positive patients into nursing homes? Also, please remember that next time there is any kind of issue in Florida. It won’t be DeSantis’ fault if he is not personally doing whatever it is. Of course, it doesn’t really matter, because according to you DeSantis is just resigned to letting whatever happen, happen, right? Thanks for being completely objective and non partisan.
Holding a governor accountable for a data reporting issue and calling him a clown is not the same as holding a governor accountable for their public actions and deeds in response to the pandemic. Presidents, governors and mayors don’t carry out the day to day details of getting things done, but they are responsible for providing leadership, and many people trust and follow what they suggest. When a leader chooses to encourage or discourage suggestions given by health officials, they are responsible for their words and actions. Cuomo encouraged taking the virus seriously, New Yorkers listened and slowed the spread. DeSantis did not encourage taking it seriously (and still isn’t), Floridians listened and now we are seeing the result in increased cases and hospitalizations.
It’s also strange that you automatically assume I’m being partisan by commending Cuomo. I have always considered myself conservative politically, but now find myself disagreeing with conservative politicians and individuals for one simple reason: they aren’t listening to health officials and they are ignoring the data. Nobody is completely objective, but I’m trying my best to put aside political considerations when looking at this issue and making decisions for myself and my family.
I wasn’t aware that Cuomo was the one out collecting data. But at least you aren’t biased in the way you present the data {sarcasm}. Most of what you talk about is Republican vs. Democrat.
A three week delay on some death data is not a big deal. The CDC states up front that their data on Covid deaths is several weeks behind other sources because they only rely on death certificates. This sounds like something similar.
Please lay off the partisan political bashing. We all have to work together if we are going to get through this.
Well said. Thank you Steven.
Please lay off the partisan political bashing. We all have to work together if we are going to get through this.
New York City Department of Health added a note to their data update- “On June 30, the count of New Yorkers who have died of COVID-19 increased by 692. Most of that increase is due to new information we received from the NYS Department of Health about city residents who died outside the city. The vast majority of these deaths occurred more than three weeks ago.” Worldometer has adjusted New York State history accordingly.
Cuomo is a clown. He cant collect data – let alone manage a pandemic
Lots of unsubstantiated claims and predictions from people clearly hoping for the worst here in the last few days. Thankfully there are a few, like Tony, who continue to bring facts to the forum.
Right on
Don’t let Data get in the way of a good “story” of doom.
If Biden wins in November can we have our country back?
New York has it under control because they just reopened. If states with areas of large population like Florida and Texas and California have numbers that skyrocketed after reopening, why would you think that won’t happen in New York and New Jersey? Because they have it all under control? Most likely, we’ll see spikes there as well, and hopefully it will be mostly mild cases.
The reason people are mentioning politics is because our power-abusing media keeps praising Cuomo, while disparaging DeSantis.
And DeSantis, by the way, aggressively targeted nursing home protection from the beginning. It was a no-brainer.
Wait that was just New York.
If you count The democratic states together (176 million population) at 6 percent death rate thats 10.5 million deaths (2.5 times the republican states) – Same logic you used
New York has had 937 deaths in June. Florida has had 1012. Solid of New York to join Humanity as previous to that the count was 30,000 to 2,000. Thats 15 times (same population)
I submit the only measure that matters is those that ultimately loose their lives. Democrats have switched to cases because the death toll is horribly not a good “story” for them
The data suggests New York will see a skyrocketing of cases in late July to August when they open up and the younger people with no symptoms get tested. Their death rate will plummet as well if they don’t take a flame thrower to the nursing homes like they did in March and April.
Some people also have lasting health issues, so they matter too, but I will submit that it doesnt matter where you live or who your governor is. Politicians can not stop viruses. They can advise people what to do, but they are going on minimal information and rely on us to do it. If youre sick, dont infect others. Beyond that, nothing we can do but develop treatments. Which politicians can do either.
People linger on ventilators for quite some time (about 3-4 weeks) before they die so the spike in deaths will come soon, assuming your governor is accurately reporting which is questionable. Dexamethasone increases your chance of survival by 30% once you are on a ventilator, raising your chances of making it from around 12% to 16% once you are intubated. Steroids work by blocking the final “cytokine storm” that happens toward the end so it will probably not help much beforehand. Remdesivir shortens your say in the hospital but does not improve your chances of survival, not to mention the supply is short and it costs around $4,000.00 per person. I’m from New York so I know the treat you guys are in for… good luck!!! Please go to the bar and kiss your grandmother for me… they deserve to reap the rewards of your arrogance.
But that’s only if everyone gets the virus. If they have it under control and the spread stops, then the deaths will stop. If the total cases stay down, then deaths will stay down, even if the percentage is higher.
Also, lower cases = lower deaths. The way to prevent deaths is to slow the spread of the virus
Including a demographics breakout would be helpful as well. Age and race are included in the patient order entry information and available
If you selectively choose which data you present you can make it say whatever you want. Go to worldometer and look at the graphs for New York. People are praising Cuomo because he was a good leader under pressure and he brought results. We used to all talk about “flattening the curve” (now nobody cares). The number of new cases in New York has not just gone flat it has taken a nosedive! Number of new deaths is the same, immensely down. Compare those graphs to the ones on this page.
New York had an explosion of cases and deaths at the beginning of the crisis when everyone was still trying to figure out the best way to deal with it. They made mistakes (especially with nursing homes) which led to a higher death rate, but they have managed to get the virus under control.
Tony, what does it matter if there is only a 3.3% death rate in Republican states? That translates into over 4 million deaths in those Republican states if the virus continues to run rampant!! I’d much rather live in a state with a higher percentage rate of deaths to infections but a vastly lower total number because the virus has been contained! Unfortunately, here in Florida we seemed resigned to just let whatever happens, happen.
To pile on to the New York discussion. New York has 31, 496 deaths – 7.5 % Death rate (population 19 million). All 24 Republican governed states combined have 33,944 deaths – 3.3 Death rate (population 145 million). According to MATH if you contract covid your twice as likely to die from it in new york than if you live in a republican governed state.
That is alarming.
If in two weeks, no spike in death occurs, this lockdown is definitely over.
I’m sure glad I don’t live in Florida! 1) it’s a COVID death zone 2) it seems to be populated with bat sh$t nuts republicans. 3) I’ve been to Miami in august, never going back to hell again.
We will have to see how the next few weeks play out. I think we are definitely looking at something of an increase in deaths, if we judge by the weekend numbers. Tuesday is usually the biggest number and this week Florida has had higher than usual weekend numbers. BUT, still not that high.
If the media in general can praise Cuomo as being THE good governor that handled it all so well, then it is all so pathetic.
The world overall has a 4.8% death rate vs. positive Covid cases. 10,388,876 cases with 507,355 deaths
The United States overall has 4.8% death rate vs. positive Covid cases. 2,675,052 cases with 128,752 deaths.
New York has 417,318 cases with 31,496 deaths. That’s a death rate of 7.5%.
And thank you, Tony, for putting these numbers in perspective and sharing them with us.
When does the magical lagging death phenomena hit the North East (and specifically New Jersey). If they trail within 2 to 3 weeks automatically – as is being widely assumed then the deaths should be averaging less than 10 a day. The automatic lag happens both ways right?
It seems to me at least, Cuomo has started a pretty nasty spat with Florida and other states. At a time when NY’s active cases per capita is 3-4 times higher than Florida’s he proclaims that Floridians are a risk to his state. Sure we might be equal to NYs cases in 3-4 weeks, but I think we’ll likely not surpass them by much, and would therefore not be a threat. Any decent leader would try to bring people together, not push them apart. DeSantis has been very good in my opinion. (I’m a registered Dem) Keep the nursing homes, etc insulated, and minimize the spread without killing jobs. If we’re going to requires masks when going into stores, also require stores to have a hand sanitizer station customers should use when going in.
On track for yet another sub 300 death tally for US today – far less than people dying from heart disease and cancer. It boggles the mind the amount of people that are actually rooting for more people to die from COVID-19. At the end of the day isn’t that the stat that matters most. Can you only imagine the conversation we would be having if CNN had a live ticker for everyone that was shot on a daily basis in our inner cities. Would really love to keep politics out of a conversation about people dying, but that’s what it’s come to I guess.
Doug – I don’t follow?
the reply is under my avatar name (FWI)
the dashboard i posted has an average death of 28-29 / day
https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/96dd742462124fa0b38ddedb9b25e429
the chart above has an average death count of 35 / day
why are they different?
Our data is based on the date the deaths are reported. The state graph shows fatalities by date of death. In other words a death could occur on June 21 and not be reported until June 27.
why the numbers are higher then this chart, even for month old data?
https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/96dd742462124fa0b38ddedb9b25e429
This is a good and fair question and is part of what causes confusion and allows people to manipulate numbers. The difference lies in tracking when the death was reported vs. when the death occurred. The chart on this page is when deaths are reported while the link you reference shows when the death occurred. For an example you will see on these charts the dips that happen on the weekends. Logically there are not less people that die on these days, but instead there are less people doing clerical/administrative work on these days. The deaths still get counted when they are reported on Monday or Tuesday (hence those mini spikes). The link you provide would instead back date those deaths to the weekend when they happened. You will notice that the DOH dashboard has a much smoother line which corresponds nicely to the rolling 7 day average line on this page.
Things that make you go Hmmmm! Fauci said yesterday in talking about his grades for states in managing the pandemic that he would single out New York for doing “really well”.
That comment alone from Fauci proves that his reasoning ability leaves much to be desired and that is not to be trusted!
Ticking up? Cases have gone up by 300 % – 22 k to 90 k and hospitalizations are net down from 4600 to 4400. Statistically that is unbelievably good news for Florida.
To be clear I’m a Republican who thinks trump is an absolute douche. His communications and handling of the pandemic make him look like maybe the stupidest president i can remember. I also think the left media are only reporting (if not rooting for) bad news because of their absolute hatred for Trump. The feud is at Americas’s expense and both sides are behaving like children.
I don’t report the hospitalization data as a spin – its the actual data and realistically the one thing that gives me hope. I can assure you if the data was rising at the same path as the cases I would be for shutting the whole thing down again. In fact im on record earlier stating i believe that shutting down earlier was the right call as we needed time to get in front of this virus (which is what the data is suggesting happened). The data suggests New York might have done better if Desantis was Governor in March. All Im saying is applying March New York Data to Florida in June without changing the variables of – Governor, testing, hospital capacity, treatment knowledge, who is vulnerable knowledge is foolish. If I’m wrong and hospitalizations and then deaths rise ill admit it and we will ALL be in trouble.
Your comments almost read like you want the hospitalizations to go up. My inference is you are almost rooting for it. Why? Will that exonerate your hatred for the president even if it means death? I cannot fathom the irony of rooting for more deaths so that you can hang those deaths over the president in “the name of those people who died”
Thank you to all posts that provide clarity and facts on this issue. It’s important to share this information. I’m a little wacky (OK. crazy) but I believe we are in a cultural, civil war. The truth needs to be spread across the state.
The only thing that gives some hope is that it doesn’t really make sense that people test positive and then go to the hospital. It seems to me that people feel very sick, go to the hospital, and are tested positive. The other positives are asymptomatics, or mild.
They have a free, no-appointment-necessary testing site set up at Florida Central University. When I went by, there were at least 200 cars waiting for testing. I can’t imagine anyone on that line was feeling sick. Very rarely are people tested positive while feeling good, then become so sick they need to be hospitalized.
Tony – Hospitalizations are ticking up. Your words can’t change the data. First people test positive, then they go into the hospital. Admittedly, treatments are getting better, so I hope and pray the deaths don’t skyrocket. But the hospitalizations are inevitable. Again, check in with me at the end of July and we can see whether your hopeful spin is right. I hope so – my relatives live in Florida – but I had the same hope in New York in March.
Tick Tick Tick . . . .
i don’t know man – the data (not news channels) say that your twice as likely to die in a democratic led state then a Republican from the virus – not sure how that relates to Trump.
Calmer than you are…
Anyone that believes a word the vile sociopath in our Whitehouse says is a fool.
Anyone that believes a word the Fox / Pravda / tRump TV channel says is a fool. They used to report the baseball scores quite accurately; but nothing else.
“Polly want a cracker?”
Phil, we try to keep things here based on data, and not an area to spew political hatred towards each other. We know we can’t stop you, but please, there are tons of places on the Internet to engage in your rhetoric. These are trying times for all of us. Be kind.
Al – Spot on analysis. The other glaring thing from the data is this virus is being handled very differently by state in by region. The data suggests to me that some states are either playing games with reporting or grossly mismanaging the virus. I believe its the former. There is no way that 30 percent of people are dying from this in June in New Jersey and all of a sudden only 1 % of people are testing positive. They are pulling a china and not reporting cases.
Pete – the positive case spike began 2 weeks ago. You could make an argument for 3 weeks ago. This lag of massive deaths are they not proceeded by hospitalizations? Do people with covid in a spike not check into a hospital but spontaneously combust in 14 to 28 days? Is it possible that the Florida Govt has someone who understands statistics on staff and that person would sound the alarm if 5 to 10 times the death was imminent? After 2 weeks the hospitals would be overwhelmed no.
Thats what your comment implies that regardless of hospitalizations and a governor who actually protects the vulnerable – we are bracing for 5 to 10 times the death (the lagging corresponding deaths you speak of)
As I have commented before – just fear mongering a lagging death surge without data is either lazy with best intentions or dishonest with worst intentions.
BTW why isn’t it good news that the hospitalization and death rate have plummeted. Why wouldn’t any AMERICAN celebrate that?
I will feel better after a few more weeks of averaging under 50 deaths a day. This huge spike started in Florida about June 12 or so. I read that on average Covid deaths take about 18 days from diagnosis. So the next few weeks will be telling.
Don – deaths are a 2 – 4 week lagging indicator. Talk to me about the massive deaths in Florida between now and July 28 and tell me how this is “VERY, VERY good news. . . “
Tony, thanks for sharing your data set via email. It’s as comprehensive as I have seen from any other source. I will be paying close attention to your comments. Here are four observations from your latest data for Florida.
1. As we’ve been seeing, positive cases up sharply in June (~4X versus May)
2. Hospitalizations for the month are flat to down (4,658 in May versus 4,421 projected for June). Combined with the data on positive tests, this means that the % positive that get hospitalized has dropped from 21% to 5%. There could be some lag in the hospitalization data, so worth watching closely. This trend would be consistent with the sharp drop in the median age of those testing positive who tend to experience mild symptoms and don’t require hospital intervention.
3. Deaths projected to be slightly down from 1,244 in May to 1,061 in June. But down sharply as a % of positive cases (5.5% vs. 1.25%). Again, there could be a lag factor in deaths, but we would be seeing an increase in hospitalizations first.
4. The percent of deaths to hospitalized down a bit (26.7% to 24%). I would have expected that number to be down further as medical treatment protocols improve, but it’s moving in the right direction
I think the CDC trend line on deaths pretty much tells the entire story. Go to https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/covidview/index.html and scroll to the very last graph. PIC deaths are currently at 6.9% and are headed straight down. When they hit 5.9% this is no longer an epidemic and I am not sure why anyone would be discussing it. The infection rate is skyrocketing so, yes, the virus is quickly moving through the population. Even so, the death rate is going down which seems VERY, VERY good news considering its rapid spread.
This is awesome Don, thanks for sharing. I know about 46% of the Country is hoping this trend will do an about face so we can continue the death and despair all the way up to 11/4
Those are national numbers. The reason that they are decreasing is because the hot spots in the northeast are recovering. That doesn’t mean that there is no problem here in Florida. Also, it’s important to read what the CDC says about their death rate reporting. They use death certificates for their data, which is delayed and usually a week or two behind. In the text with the graph you mentioned, it says: “Data for recent weeks are incomplete”. In Florida, the DOH reported death rate is not declining, cases are skyrocketing and hospitalizations are increasing. This is NOT good news for us.
Serious question – can you add the average age of infected ?
what I would be asking is,
1. How many are the anti body positive or rapid test?
2. is there any mechanism to identify duplication, or the same individual reverting multiple tests?
3. Of the positive from rapid test, how many are asymptomatic?
4. How are false positives or negatives reported?
I have all this data broken out state by state. by region, and by state political party of governor.
If you want it email me thartsgrove@odcbuilds.com
Florida /Tests /Positive Cases/ % Positive/ Hospitalizations/ % of Cases /Deaths /% of Cases /% of Hospitaliztions
March /60,623 /6,338 /10.45% /823 /12.99% /77 /1.21% /9.36%
April /321,782 /27,352 /8.50% /4,972 /18.18% /1213 /4.43% /24.40%
May /638,944 /22,473 /3.52% /4,658 /20.73% /1,244 /5.54% /26.71%
June (IP) /808,176 /76,382 /9.45% /3,979 /5.21% /955 /1.25% /24.00%
June Projected /897,973 /84,869 /9.45% /4,421 /5.21% /1,061 /1.25% /24.00%
Total 1,829,525 132,545 7.24% 14,432 10.89% 3,489 2.63% 24.18%
Clunky to paste in here but see if you can follow. We are projecting to have 4421 Hospitalizations this month – down from 4658 in May.
Pretty good since cases have gone from 22,473 to 84,869
The data screams to me an inference that there were a ton of young asymptomatic people infected but not tested in april and may that we are just now capturing.
Totally my inference so who knows
Florida Tests Positive Cases % Positive Hospitalizations % of Cases Deaths % of Cases % of Hospitalizations
March 60,623 6,338 10.45% 823 12.99% 77 1.21% 9.36%
April 321,782 27,352 8.50% 4,972 18.18% 1,213 4.43% 24.40%
May 638,944 22,473 3.52% 4,658 20.73% 1,244 5.54% 26.71%
June (IP) 808,176 76,382 9.45% 3,979 5.21% 955 1.25% 24.00%
June Projected 897,973 84,869 9.45% 4,421 5.21% 1,061 1.25% 24.00%
Richard most of the information you are asking for is on the Florida DOH website. They have a number of different cuts at the data by day, in each county. It may not be exactly what you would like to see but it has a wealth of information on age demographics, ethnic demographics, location, etc. It also lists each case in each county every day, including age. I suspect that you would get much of what you are looking for in their data. You could use this data to calculate most if not all of the trends you mention,
We need to have trendlines by Age and Population Density Demographics. The way the data is currently presented, hides disease trending by age group as well as population density. One would think it would be important to see if the current high infection rate among the youth, is migrating up the age scale. You can’t see that by lumping everything together. Another useful way to group the data would be to break out rural areas (or some population density threshold) vs City areas with high population density. The I would like to see the ages broken out by for example: Under 18, 18-24, 25-30, 30-50, 50-60, 60-70, 70-80, Above 80. I would use 18 to 24 to capture the predominate undergraduate and graduate college age group. This way we can see how the transmission is moving into the general population. As it is, by lumping everyone into the same pot, the statistics are not useful and are doing a disservice.
Tara, I suspect that Momma is alluding to a Reddit post from May by a former Obama Administration official which was debunked at the end of May. This person was comparing data inaccurately and has since taken the post down.
I found 2 credible sources that say that pneumonia claim is false but has gone viral nonetheless. Sadly, because DeSantis is an open Trump supporter, all kinds of ridiculous stories are being put out there. Half the country is hoping for massive deaths in Florida. And these same people call Trump dishonorable.
https://www.tampabay.com/news/health/2020/05/29/theres-a-new-theory-about-florida-coronavirus-and-pneumonia-deaths-read-this-first/
https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2020/jun/03/facebook-posts/claim-florida-undercounting-covid-19-deaths-uses-f/
The last 11 days the 7 day average of deaths to hospitalizations has been roughly 21 %. Some Progress
New Jersey with an 11 % death day again More total deaths than Florida on more than 30 times less cases – I’m sure CNN is all over it though
Momma, do you have a credible source you can direct us to regarding the number of pneumonia deaths in Florida in 2020?
Tony has been on top of this from the beginning. As of today, according to the latest statistics, Florida resident deaths have equaled 24% of Florida resident hospitalizations according to state numbers. Now that we are getting much higher sampling, and less severe patients entering the hospitals according to several of the hospitals in South Florida, it will be interesting to see whether that number remains constant going forward.
Lillian – is this what you think or based on any science. In New York and in Texas hospitalizations corresponded within a couple days of deaths. Im happy to hear of a specific numeric example to back up your claim but my gut says you just think that sounds logical.
I push that because we time and time again are hearing what people think not what the data actually shows.
Stephen deaths have been consistently 25 % of hospitalizations from the beginning all the way to now
Interesting thread. FL is not 2x more populous than NY. (SMH) 21MM vs 19MM. There is a strange increase in the # of pneumonia deaths in FL—way off the charts compared to any previous year, and we are only talking 6 mos. Time will tell or s whistleblower. I will continue to be safe and prudent.
Lillian, there is no empirical evidence that your hypothesis is accurate. In the past, people who needed hospitalization generally were hospitalized when they were tested. The people being tested and positive now are overwhelmingly younger, healthier and, in many cases asymptomatic or mildly symptomatic. What we are seeing now is a new set of patients. The evidence says that this group will fare better in general than the people who were confirmed cases through May. We will have to wait and see whether the hospitalizations and death rates rise. So far hospitalizations are up, but not significantly, and the death rates continue to fall. In recent press conferences, hospital heads from several hospitals have emphasized that the people coming to their hospitals today are in much less severe condition than in April and May, and the need for intubation and ventilators is a fraction of what they saw during that time. Taking just a little time to read and follow what is happening on the ground would appraise you of all of these facts.
Please include March in your charts. Leaving March off the charts is deceptive.
Michael, go to links below for March data and what steps were taken along the way. You will see that for Florida, March was pretty much flat. Spiking started after shutdown on March 20.
For a day-by-day account of the early stages in Florida:
https://www.clickorlando.com/news/local/2020/03/20/timeline-the-spread-of-coronavirus-in-florida/
For charts that include March:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/florida/
Does any graph exist plotting the hospitalization vs deaths?
Ctl-Home, Ctl-End. w/o these keyboard shortcuts I probably would not participate in this thread. As a 70+ person the right cranial hemisphere says reasonable socialist distance and avoid crowds & wash hands. The left cranial hemisphere appreciates TR data posting, comments & remembers clearly being 20, 30, 40, 50 & 60. Those versions of ‘curious’ would all be at Panama City Beach as people have for more than 2 months disregarding all the yap
You go, curious! That’s what we’re talking about!
Note also that Florida had 10X as many positive cases reported on Friday as NY did, 21X as many as NJ, and 38X as many as MA.
Yet, fewer deaths were reported in FL than in any of those three states.
Yep, and Florida has 9x less deaths than New York and 5x less than New Jersey. Overall, Florida is 28th in terms of deaths per million. These are the stats that really matter. Sooner all these 20 and 30 somethings get the immunity built up, naturally, the better it will be for all, including those at most risk. The body is a beautiful thing if you let it do its job. All of these drugs have made us weaker and more at risk.
Terry, didn’t you get the memo? ? They have given that serious investigation and have determined that the protests were the only group gatherings where no spread of the virus occurred.
Meant to post that to your comment above. 🙂
People expect hospitalizations to correspond at the same time to the number of positive tests, but that will not happen for a little while. Once they start getting really sick, then the number of people admitted to the hospital will rise. Wait a little more, and the deaths will rise.
The positive tests that are coming from sick people absolutely will correspond with hospitalizations. Those are the people that are going to the Emergency Room, and pending their breathing, either get sent home or admitted. All of the 20 and 30 somethings are getting tested because they can, or need to as a condition of employment or to visit Grandma. They will NEVER go to the hospital. That is the vast majority
It would be interesting to see Phase 2 marked on the cases graph. I wonder if it corresponds to the start of the upward spike.
Phase 2 started on 6/5.
When did the protests start? Hmmm, not hearing much about that being a contributing factor. In South Florida, especially Broward, we never entered Phase 2, and masks have been required in Public places for almost two months now. Can’t blame this on the re-opening.
My question is how many of the test that are positive are the faulty tests? I know several that had a faulty test through health departments that when they went to their PC their tests we actually negative.
Interesting in New Jersey
Historical Percent Positive – 12.88 % – June – 1.7 % – hmmm
Historical Death Rate – 8.74 % – June 32.55 % (next highest 11.8 %) – wow
one third of reported cases in June are deaths in New Jersey
We keep ranting about political things but not asking ? about stats that dont make sense to find answers.
This virus is exposing the education system of America – Very few understand statistics
It concerns me that we may be putting too much faith in masks. It’s comforting to wear one, and it’s comforting to see others wear one, and it’s even comforting to demean those who don’t. But New York saw it’s highest levels of new cases WHILE ON LOCKDOWN. Even if you take into account the 2-week incubation period, that doesn’t explain how so many new cases kept on occurring. People were home, not going out, and the spread was continuing at higher levels than we are seeing now. I am concerned that the rest of the country just needs to go through what the Northeast did. And it’s very likely that re-opening a month later would not have mattered.
Tara, very good point. The mask thing has been totally politicized like everything else in this Country since this last election. I find it so funny that these big mask proponents claim you need to wear one to be selfless and to show you care about others, even if you aren’t afraid. These are the same people that would cut you off on the highway going 80 miles an hour, or knock you down to get the cheap TV at WalMart during Black Friday.
The charts don’t lie, the US did over 637K tests yesterday with a positive rate of 6% which is pretty consistent with what it’s been for the past month plus. In Florida there were over 52K tests yesterday, which is the second most since the beginning of this Pandemic.
Pertaining to New York and that whole Tri-State area, noone will say this, but they are doing better now in terms of daily cases because basically they’ve built up immunity with the younger folks that are out and about. Unfortunately a lot of the folks in Nursing homes are no longer with us.
Cases only mean more testing, more otherwise health people getting it. Hospitalizations and deaths are flat. This is the democrats trying to bring down the economy to win an election.
I would be concerned if hospitalizations were skyrocketing, but they are clearly not.
How about we let those who do not want to wear masks or refuse to social distance to do what they want -as long as it is documented. And if they get sick and have to go to the hospital, they would then go to the end of the line, if there is a shortage of ICU bed (a lot of folks here don’t think that is even remotely possible). Also, they would have to be asked to pay a little bit more out of pocket just to make sure the hospital staff can be paid more for the increased number of patients.
As an aside to “Not a drinker” who asks why alcohol is still legal while wearing masks is required, well, I am for making the Covid virus illegal also.
When healthy people can tell overweight people they need to stop over-eating and exercise more, and smokers they need to stop smoking, and opiate abusers to stop taking drugs, and doing all of these other things that cause hospitalizations, then I’m fine “going to the back of the line” if I never need to be hospitalized for COVID-19. But since we know that will never happen, because it’s too mean, then I will just ignore this argument altogether.
Wow…still less than half as many COVID deaths as annual alcohol deaths. And yet alcohol is still legal but we have to wear masks everywhere?!!!
It is pretty funny that when the New York was tolling hundreds of deaths a day and thousands of new cases a day, for weeks on end, Cuomo was getting praise for how well he was handling it. The whole country shut down based on the numbers coming out of the Northeast. Now that we’re re-opening and seeing spikes, all of a sudden those numbers are a reflection of how badly people are handling things. We have yet to see if the Northeast spikes again after re-opening. We cannot stay shut down forever.
Just search for viral video Jersey Shore and you will see partyers all without masks and shoulder to shoulder. This is going to happen. A lot of people are willing to take their chances with the virus rather than worry about it day and night. I am not defending that, just stating a fact. This virus needs to run its course and prayerfully sooner rather than later. Protect our elderly and those with underlying conditions.
Sorry 75 out of 1000 in above comment for northeast
Texas and Florida saw the spike in cases start on roughly the same day June 15 – 10 Days ago.
Texas saw a corresponding spike in Hospitalizations Florida has not. Just Data.
So yes the virus does behave differently. Has been all along.
Like how it kills 32 out of 1000 people in the south and 75 out of 100 (double) in the north-east. Just Data – not my opinion
Seems like if the reduction of death is our top priority someone in the world would ponder why that is….
7 day average hospitalization have just gotten close to the peak during the last 100 days. Deaths are going up. While progress has been made in cutting down the number of deaths per hospitalization, there will still be a horrible spike in deaths in a week or two. Wear a mask and keep you distance so we can keep things open. Be responsible, be loving.
Can everyone please just look at what’s happening in Texas with their hospitalizations and cases?! Do you think the virus in different or the people are different in Florida? Just wait 7-14 days and unfortunately you will see the hospitalizations rate match… smh
Andrew, if you look again, there is an upward trend in hospitalization from June 5 to current.
Floridians, Follow the New Yorker’s method. It is working
I heard about how awful it is becoming in Florida but so far that dog does not hunt. There are a lot of new cases confirmed but that number is a useless fact. The real numbers to watch are the averages of hospitalizations and deaths. Those numbers remain practically unchanged even as the reported cases grow daily from hundreds to thousands. If people take care in their actions to protect themselves it is not any more dangerous to be in Florida now than it was three weeks ago. Everyone needs to remain calm and continue to use safety measures getting back to normal. Cases are not increasing, they are just now being reported in realistic numbers.
At what time of day do the charts update? It has not updated yet for today as it is the same as mid morning yesterday.
Great point Jon, we are not getting “hit hard”, the stats that matter are hospitalizations and deaths, which are both trending down. New York’s mortality rate is so much worse because Cuomo totally mishandled the Nursing homes and was sending infected people back before they were negative. In Florida, the hospitals, and Nursing homes for that matter, are requiring two consecutive negative COVID-19 tests before sending people back. I know this because my wife is a Nurse at Holy Cross hospital in Fort Lauderdale,
Are these numbers for Florida or are they for Tallahassee only?
Another odd thing here is why was NY/NJ hit so hard right out of the gate? I’ve heard the subway and transportation in NY may have caused the early spread. But that doesn’t explain why states like Florida, California and Texas are getting so hard hit now. If these latter states weren’t hard hit out the gate, why now? California and Florida are both big tourism states with areas of dense population. Are we to believe the virus was only in the Northeast in January? And it moved across the country during the lockdown, waiting for everyone to come back out? It’s baffling to me. The only thing that makes sense is that there have always been a large number of cases, we just didn’t know it.
My sister, who lives in St.Petersburg, was hospitalized in late January with breathing issues and flu-like symptoms. This was before coronavirus was a “thing”. She was admitted with dangerously low blood oxygen levels. They gave her numerous tests and couldn’t figure out what was wrong with her. They finally released her after 4 days with an asthma inhaler. (She does not have asthma and never used it. She’s fine now.) She was supposed to have a follow-up with her doctor a month later, but he cancelled due to testing positive for coronavirus. She recently tested for antibodies and it came back negative. I’ve heard numerous stories of married couples who both have corona symptoms, and one tests positive, the other negative.
I think we don’t know nearly enough about this virus.
We arent getting hit hard. New cases doesnt really matter. Hospitalizations and deaths are still flat. And we are still showing 1/4 of the daily deaths of New York even though we have twice the population.
Re: “people are dying because of lockdown so we should just “let ’em die”.
YTD morbidity for FL, non-COVID, as of 21Jun:
5yr avg: 9,264, 2019: 11,834, 2020: 8,221
:=== non-Covid illness deaths are down 30% from last year, 10% from 5 year avg
People are not dying because of lockdown.
(source: http://www.floridahealth.gov/diseases-and-conditions/disease-reporting-and-management/disease-reporting-and-surveillance/data-and-publications/weekly-morbidity-reports/index.html)
To be super clear
in new york 71 out 1000 people with covid die
in Florida 31 out 1000 people with covid die
can anyone find a clip of someone from the media asking cuomo why?
Bob – the gap stop you are looking for in the lag between cases and deaths is hospitalizations.
In a weird way hospitalizations actually beat cases. Generally when you are hospitalized you show up and say dude i really cant breathe and then you are both hospitalized and counted as a case in the same day. Very rare that you test – are asymptomatic positive and then go to the hospital 7 days later.
So if you show up asymptomatic and test you get your results 5 days later and generally thats it. If you show up with symptoms that put you in hospital – you get admitted.
If you get admitted to the hospital 25 % of the time you die – that stat has been consistent from march through June. The stat that has dramatically changed is that if you test positive before june 20 % were people sick enough to be admitted and now in june only 7 % get admitted
May – 640 k tests 22 k positive cases and 4600 Hospitalizations
June (on track for) – 850 k tests 60 k positive cases and only 4100 Hospitalizations
Net net less hospitalizations on triple the cases.
The real question is why do 1 in 10 people die in new york and only .3 in 10 die in florida? Is it possible we are managing it differently?
I would hope that people will go back to April and May and read some of the ignorant comments that they made now that we have the benefit of some time since this all started.
The facts are the facts. Increased cases since Reopenings which is expected. The only question is what is our tolerance for sickness and death.
For the head of the federal government and our country not to take the lead on this and to encourage a divide over simple Issues such as wearing a face mask is inexcusable. For him to encourage mass gatherings without masks or social distancing is akin to murder. No consideration for anything that he does not feel helps him politically.
I believe that over the next few months you will see individuals who attended his rally’s Dying.
In my opinion, had he made mask wearing a sign of civic pride and duty and a patriotic gesture and led the way on this, many of the consequences of non social distancing and Non face coveriNg could have been avoided.
He is just incapable of caring
It really is mind-numbing to see people repeating what CNN keeps reporting without anything to back it up. Please show me one chart, just one, that shows hospitalizations are spiking to anywhere near capacity in Florida – which still includes people there for elective surgeries and some elderly who are being kept there because they can’t be isolated as well at their facilities. We were nowhere close to capacity when this whole thing ramped up in March/April, and still doing very well per the heads of the Tri-County hospitals where most of the cases are being reported. We never used these field hospitals that were stood up and my wife who is a Nurse kept getting called off due to lack of patients. Bottom line, a bunch of young, healthy people are testing positive because everyone is being encouraged to get tested, especially if they are going back to work or visit Grandma. The daily death rate is plummeting, in fact it was the lowest it’s ever been (267) yesterday since this whole thing began. The Mainstream media needs to perpetuate this thing as long as possible, or at least until Sleepy Joe can get out of the bunker
The issue with re-opening is it takes 4-5 weeks to see the results in deaths. All positive test results are 8-13 days after infection (4-5 days of incubation, 1-3 days before seeking care/test, 3-5 day test results). Deaths typically take 7-14 days after hospitalization/testing. So all deaths are showing infections 3-4 weeks in the past as are new cases about 10 days in the past. They are reflections of past behaviors that spread the disease. Also, human psychology shows that only a percentage will venture out initially, that percentage grows as the testing (actually form before opening up for the first 10 days or so) continues to drop. By the time it starts to rise after about 2-3 weeks it is too late. The results in Florida for the next 10 days are cast in the past. If you draw the line up form the 7 day average, it shows the path for the next 10-12 days. After that it is what Floridians do today. If the same behaviors persist, the Ro over 1 will continue to drive exponential growth. It is when and how we interact that the disease is spread. Clearly, the changes in behavior that began 4-6 weeks ago in Florida have changed the virus spread.
Does anyone know why the daily new cases shown on this site does not match the number of daily cases on the Florida Covid-19 dashboard ? The dashboard seems to have much higher numbers. Which site is the most reliable?
Yes, jo, the media is just so sad these days (except for the great staff at tallahasseereports.com *smile*). I don’t think percent positive has a whole lot of meaning to it, as there are so many factors involved. But it’s a number they can point to as going up. They don’t say deaths and hospitalizations are stable, but the second one of them starts trending up, that’s all we will hear. And they will point to “too early reopening”. Interesting that we never hear that these sudden increases came 2 weeks after the nationwide protesting started. I’m not saying that caused any of this; I think we all just have to go through what the Northeast has already gone through. But my point is the media bias is so blatant it’s disturbing.
A leader from one of the biggest protesting groups in South Carolina is now admitting a lot of cases, 13 in his group alone, came from the Protesting in that State and contributing to the increase in cases. I give them credit because they are putting their protesting on hold and doing isolation for 2 weeks. We all know we can’t do effective contact tracing because noone will ask if people were participating in the protests and very few will volunteer this information.
It would also be very informative to add the actual number of tests per day to the daily case chart — as well as a 7 day rolling average of % of positive tests. These results are being shown and picked up by media in the most negative and fearful manner possible. Fear is terrible for the immune system and other bodily functions – let’s invest in things that actually help, while showing the whole picture please!
Seunghan, Florida started lifting lockdown on May 4. Since then, things are slowly getting back to normal. Nursing homes were top priority since we first learned of the pandemic and still are. What I find interesting is that New York and New Jersey continued showing high numbers for months, even though they were on strict lockdown. For whatever reason, those 2 states were hit hardest first, now it seems to be moving across the country. Personally, I don’t consider Florida’s reopening as being “early” just because New York wasn’t ready. New Yorkers had a whole different experience thus far. I am originally from New York and a lot of the people I know from there are scared, afraid to leave their homes and predicting doom for the reopened states. And, sadly, it does seem to be along political lines.
china is who we should be mad at,how can you ever but something made in china ever again,,xi could care less about us,we should all get reparations from china for
this virus.
As a new yorker, your chart is very interesting. Positivity/number of confirmed goes up. Hospitalization stable, death is stable. I will be checking this out more often. One suggestion is that there was a graph of age breakdown. If you could add that, this will be much more informative. Basically you guys are not locking down, swedish model with strict nursing home protection?
The number of daily confirmed (tested) cases is way up, but the number of daily deaths (not all of which are confirmed) is down. You might think that more cases today will predict more deaths in the next few weeks, but cases have not predicted deaths in the past. It is usually wise to focus on new hospitalizations (including emergency and ICU) and new deaths rather than on cases. That is because cases are sensitive to the amount of testing and to the selectivity of who is the focus of testing (e.g., nursing homes have a lot more positive tests than a random sample of people with no symptoms) https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/96dd742462124fa0b38ddedb9b25e429
Just wanted point out people need to wear the masks properly and use the right kind of masks. Covering just your mouth with the nose exposed or just using a piece of cloth is not enough.
Just wanted to say that this website is the greatest! You will NEVER find this type of info on NY cases, probably because the NY state gov would rather control the narrative. I am putting you on my quick access…. just left from palm beach to go to NYC… you don’t know how great you have it… all restaurants in NYC still closed, most businesses still closed. Many will never recover. Can’t wait to go back to FL, and some sense of normalcy!!!!
Does anyone know if test positive count is only counting new patients, or is retesting also counted in the numbers. My son had covid and still tested positive up to 5 weeks after symptoms ended.
Mick, sit back and grab a bag of popcorn? Real nice.
Yes, joe, I have been trying to find number of deaths per month in past years to compare them to this year, and I have not been successful. I see stories saying they are higher this year, but no official data to back that up. I can find 2017 data, but that’s it.
Anyone have any luck with this?
Everything can be manipulated except the hospitalization and death rate. The death rate (Covid19 caused?) is also a little iffy. What is the % increase in testing vs new cases. The new death rate. If the deaths are lower but the testing is higher, they are purposely telling you nothing and it’s good news not bad news.New cases tells you nothing without resulting numbers. Just keep the sheeple confused. The only real way to see what is happening is total deaths for all causes year over year by month. a really easy number to figure out for the “professionals” thats a number they will never show you. It will reveal the facts are against them.
If Tony is right, we should see the health care system in FL crushed by the end of July. I hope he’s wrong but I fear he is right. If that happens, I suppose Faux News will blame Obama and Trump will swear the deaths are a hoax. But, all a thoughtful person will have to do is ask a Doctor or a nurse how it’s goin or try to visit a friend in the Hospital. Looks like a need to just sit back and grab a bag of popcorn.
Hospitalizations lag 3 weeks?
So you test positive and go to Hospital 3 weeks later
Sounds logical
According to FDOH data level of testing has remained fairly constant in recent weeks while the % positivity has increased markedly. Hospitalizations and deaths will lag 3-6 weeks.
AMAZING! I Remember a day in this country when human life was the one non-negotiable quantity. Now we accept tractor trailer loads of dead bodies as an acceptable price for a strong economy. What happened?
What? No death is acceptable but death happens. And it happens with or without the Wuhan Virus. Death also happens because of closing businesses and lost jobs. A weakened country is also an invite to be attacked by the world just like the body with a weak immune system. A dead economy leads to starvation and suicide. Bored unemployed people start riots and declare autonomous zones. Death has always been negotiable.. What do you think life insurance is?
To Tallahassee Reports – Do you know if retested positive cases appear on the case chart as new cases? Example – employers ask for employees to test. Two employees test positive, wait 5 days and retest again to go back to work and are still positive…does that second positive test appear here as a new case?
Also there was a report (Lauren Seabrook WFTV Orlando) early on that people who were tested and showed positive antibody tests (Already had the virus and recovered) were showing up on this daily case data. Is that true?
Finally has there been any tracking/correlation of the effect of the George Floyd protests two- three weeks ago on these case numbers?
Wait and see. New cases ticking up, hospitalizations may follow. Good news is Leon County is still fine.
The increase in cases is not explained entirely by the increase in testing. The positive test result rate in Florida is up to 8.24% (https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/testing/testing-positivity) from around 5% a couple of weeks ago.
This is a denominator problem. all along we have know the two numerators – hospitalizations and deaths. those we counted all of since the beginning. the thing that is changing is the denominator because we are capturing the cases with triple the testing since april. Make no mistake about it roughly the same amount of people had it in may – we just never tested them.
Why can i say this with certainty? because the absolute value of the numerators (the number we have always known to be the full universe) is flat to down.
Analogy is we don’t know how many cars have a check engine light on but we do know the exact amount that have had to go to service by just having stations report the data. If we did a survey of all people with a check engine light it would tell us – but that wouldn’t mean that suddenly millions of check engine lights happened – it would mean that we knew about the check engine lights there all along.
You have to be cognizant of the fact that hospitlizations are only a partial indicator and should not be used as the sole basis of the seriousness of the virus. The other critcal number is the number of positive cases less hospitlizations. This number indicates the number of infected people who can recover without being hospitalized. Key medical individuals such as Dr. Fauci have said to wear masks and keep distances – this will help slow down the spread and control the virus. It is beyond me how people fail to realize how important it is to wear masks and keep distancing. I track the numbers daily for Florida and I can say that we are headed in the wrong direction. WEAR A MASK and MAINTAIN A SAFE DISTANCE. Show consideration for others.
Zack is exactly right. The testing is not the primary cause of the spike in new cases. So many experts have told us the relationship between the two when testing, contact tracing, isolation, etc. is done properly. It may be counter intuitive but it is not rocket science. If you need to understand this, just look at NY’s data. As proper testing increased exponentially AND the state had the right responses in place that the CDC has been recommending for several months, the new cases have bottomed out. Come back here in a week and watch the hospitalization numbers and then in 3 weeks to see the death toll. We are in serious trouble in FL and the rest of the world seems to know it as we are making headlines everywhere. The DOH needs to forget politics and speak up!
If the rising cases mostly occurred in the healthy population, it doe not matter much. In fact, it can be beneficial from the population perspective. The key here is to protect the volunarable population and prevent the spike in hospitalization rate. Precautions are needed for everyone.
i read half the comments, no mention of where to get raw case data. I want these simple metrics:
dateTime
zipcode
positiveTest
Bonus metrics:
negTest
age (seriously this is important, if theres a spike in elderly, im not going to publix at opening)
I want to monitor for spikes in MY and loved one’s neighborhood. County doesn’t help me, its just not granular enough. The closet i can find are these two sources:
https://services1.arcgis.com/CY1LXxl9zlJeBuRZ/arcgis/rest/services/Florida_COVID19_Case_Line_Data_NEW/FeatureServer
https://services1.arcgis.com/CY1LXxl9zlJeBuRZ/ArcGIS/rest/services/Florida_Cases_Zips_COVID19/FeatureServer
Anyone?
Hey, I support re-opening, but I do not believe that increased testing caused the recent sky-rocketing new cases. That can be true if and only if all the tests were done on randomly selected people. In that case, yes, the more you test, the more positives you turn up. If people were tested with reasons, like showing symptoms or having had contact with sick people, then increased testing cannot be responsible for the increased cases.
Also, DOH report here: http://ww11.doh.state.fl.us/comm/_partners/action/report_archive/state/state_reports_latest.pdf does show that both new cases AND percent positivity for new cases have tripled between 6/4 and 6/17. Spreading is speeding!
So, my point is that we need to keep open and get back to our lives, but we also need to take precautions, like social distancing, etc., to slow down the spreading.
The hospitalizations have been relatively consistent since 4/8 at about 147 per day with some peaks and valleys. Florida seems to have done a pretty good job of balancing the need for people to work and the need to protect hospital ICU capacities. Florida’s governor seems to be on the defensive with the national media. In contrast, Michigan is run by a power-loving governor who is enjoying absolute power immensely and locked the state down so tightly that a rowboat could not be used. She has conducted a hundred-plus, non-Michigan interviews, and is a media darling in the running for Biden’s VP slot. Beware of those who crave power–her star seems to be dimming, but remember if you see her name on November’s ballot that the nation is potentially only a heartbeat away from huge numbers of executive orders.
I’m a 60+ year old teacher, and you’re worried about students taking the virus home. What about the students bring the virus from home to the teachers? Make the state safe, so that I don’t go to school in fear for my life everyday.
Confirmed cases have increased as of late, could be the result of more widespread testing. “In the weeds”, however, hospitaizations and deaths are flat or,maybe,down a bit.
TR: You need to mark the Phase II Reopening of 6/5 on your charts, too.
Am I missing something, Steve? The DOH daily report shows 44 hospitalizations for Leon County, but one of your charts shows 55. Why the difference?
Outcomes for Florida residents
Hospitalizations 44
Deaths 8
The 55 includes non-residents in Leon County hospitals.
Is the 55 cumulative?
Please add a 4th chart showing number of tests, or overlay testing volume on the positive case chart. Otherwise looking at data from April to June is like comparing apples and oranges
Unfortunately, this virus continues on and probably will for awhile. The initial lockdown helped spread out the hospitalizations thus lightening the load on hospital beds. Had we known then what we know now, perhaps the best course of action would have been to lockdown only those more likely to suffer. By now, we would have been past the worst. But we didn’t know then. So the initial lockdown was a necessary learning experience, if nothing else. So it looks like now we will go through what New York and New Jersey went through. Interestingly, those two states had high numbers of deaths and hospitalizations for months, even though they were on lockdown. Hmmmm.
Statistically speaking the lock-downs were necessary
Statistically speaking continued lock-downs are not necessary
We were too far behind in knowledge and testing for how contagious the virus was. Non Lock downs in march would have produced really awful results.
This is a macro / micro issue. Micro – this is personal. when you lose a love one or know someone affected at the micro level it hurts and you cant blame someone for wanting that micro lens to be applied to everyone in the name of safety.
Macro that is not feasible as statistically only a few will feel the pain and so there is an inevitable trade of between macro well being and micro lives. It sucks and is unfair but as i have always understood fair was not a big consideration of nature.
Statistically speaking the lock-downs were necessary
Statistically speaking continued lock-downs are not necessary
We were too far behind in knowledge and testing for how contagious the virus was. Non Lock downs in march would have produced really awful results.
This is a macro / micro issue. Micro – this is personal. when you lose a love one or know someone affected at the micro level it hurts and you cant blame someone for wanting that micro lens to be applied to everyone in the name of safety.
Macro that is not feasible as statistically only a few will feel the pain and so there is an inevitable trade of between macro well being and micro lives. It sucks and is unfair but as i have always understood fair was not a big consideration of nature.
The lockdowns were a mistake, plain and simple. They should never be repeated. For those people who want to stay home, no one is stopping you. However, you are not going to get paid to stay home.
I am a retired 75 year old critical care physician. My friends and ex-partners tell me that COVID is “just awful”. Not just old folks in the ICU but those on the regular hospital floors. Even young patients (who are moving the age peaks to the left) are miserable for 10 days to 2 weeks and, obviously transmit the disease to their family members. Main complaints are unremitting fevers, body aches, shaking chills, profound lethargy and persistent cough. The lethargy can last for a month or even two months.
We haven’t visited our children or grandchildren in 3 months. I understand that you younger people want to get on with your lives but you have to realize that you could be jeopardizing your parents and grandparents. “Opening up” festivals, restaurants and bars is causing a second wave. At least 10 counties in Florida have exceeded their new case peaks in the past week. Yesterday we went out to a restaurant for the first time in 4 months. It was terrifying. No other patrons were wearing masks, some servers weren’t wearing them correctly, kitchen workers weren’t wearing them at all. We won’t be going out again.
Until there is a vaccine or a cure the only way to control this epidemic is by physical distancing, wearing masks and contact tracing. I’m afraid that this will be one of the worst periods in our countries history. Please be kind to others and stay safe.
Lou, protect yourself if you are afraid. But the rest of us want to live our lives and not destroy America.
Tallahassee Reports – Could you add a 7 day number of tests completed on avg trend line or graph
Tallahasse Reports – Florida started reopening May 4th not May 18th. May 18th was Full Phase I. Your chart makes it appear we jus started reopening on May 18th. Restaurants were open at 25% indoor and full outdoors on May 4th.
numbers as follows
Florida March April May June Total
Tests 60623 321782 638944 349064 1370413
Positive Cases 6338 27352 22473 17389 73552
% Positive 10.45% 8.50% 3.52% 4.98% 5.37%
Hospital 823 4972 4658 1702 12155
% of Cases 12.99% 18.18% 20.73% 9.79% 16.53%
Deaths 77 1213 1244 482 3016
% of Cases 1.21% 4.43% 5.54% 2.77% 4.10%
% of Hospital 9.36% 24.40% 26.71% 28.32% 24.81%
The main stat that strikes me is that consistently 25 % of hospitalizations lead to death. What we have seen in May and June is that testing has surged (up 100% from april to may and on pace to be up 50 % at least in June). The hospitalization rate has been cut in half.
Basically in June with increased testing we are getting a clearer picture of the “non-critical” people who contract the virus. We will have record number of cases (as widely reported through the media) but we are on pace for a reduction in hospitalizations and the strongly correlated death rate that has been consistent. Basically with respect to hospital capacity and death rate we are doing better than previous months.
To just present the case spike without thorough analysis of the numbers is either lazy at best or dishonest at worst in my opinion.
Tony, you are 100% right. The numbers are tools to track the virus, and their interpretation should be done with an unbiased and careful understanding of what they mean.
Unfortunately, though, this has become political in that Trump haters see only increases. I have family and friends in this category who are good, honest people. Yet politics brings about heated passions and for the life of me I can’t figure out why. But it is the human way. I have been guilty myself of that in the past. My Trump-hating relatives are all salivating at Florida’s skyrocketing increase in cases, along with Texas and Alabama, citing too early reopenings. None of them will see beyond that, no matter what facts are presented to them.
As they say, torture numbers long enough and they will confess to anything.
“The daily numbers documenting the spread of the coronavirus in Florida have begun to show flattening trends.”
The data seems to indicate a spike and not flattening trends. Did you look at the data or just continue with the same wrong conclusion?
This is not a Republican / Democrat issue or a Trump / Media issue. This is a Math and Statistics issue. Nobody wanted the pandemic but its here so now we need to find a way to best get through life by minimizing death while still having an economy.
I have analyzed data from day 1.
Roughly 25 % of all who are hospitalized die. This correlation has remained constant.
In the beginning 25 % of all cases resulted in hospitalization. so if 100 people tested positive 25 went to the hospital and 6 died.
now we are increasing testing and we know how to protect the most vulnerable so the hospitalization rate has dramatically decreased to 8 %. so now if 100 people test positive then 8 go to the hospital and 2 die.
If hospitalization % goes up we are NOT protecting the vulnerable regardless of your political party. If it goes down we are.
This is counting – Not politics
Look at the Florida Covid 19 Data and Map to see the actual number of deaths
The number of deaths per day is wrong and is about triple the actual numbers in the last several days.
The number of deaths per day is wrong and is about triple the actual numbers in the last several days. https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/96dd742462124fa0b38ddedb9b25e429?fbclid=IwAR1QjZ7Zzx8aYvNHMgd7p08KHhaXhynVkNWqx8MuncycjvBHwpkHHvJPgKM
Rik, the site you reference is showing deaths by date of death. Tallahassee is showing deaths reported each day (irrespective of when the death occurred). Because there is a lag between a death occurring and that death being reported, the former metric will always be lower over the preceding one or two weeks.
What you said makes no sense. If the lag was the problem then in a week we would see a tripling of deaths. It has not happened. Deaths keep going down. No one can fake the death number.
Bob, How many Trump supporters have died in NY, NJ, MI as a result of those horrible Governors and their assault on nursing homes knowing exactly what they were doing in pushing / keeping infected people into those places. This just in…. long-term care facilities /nursing homes are not Hospitals! Go away Bob. cozy up the latest addition of Trump-Russia collusion and the breathless reports you soaked up for 2 years. Lol buddy
Bob’s a real gem, eh? Losers on CNN/MSNBC and elsewhere said early on that “Trump supporters” would be die at a much higher rate because he was hyping Hydroxychloriquine (sp?) or just because deplorable or something. Those people and Bob are literally rooting for deaths in Florida because DeSantis looks good in his decision making that was roundly criticized from day 1. How many Trump supporters have dies in NY, NJ, MI as a result of those horrible Governors and their assualt on nursing homes knowing exactly what they were doing in pushing / keeping infected people into those places. This just in…. long-term care facilities /nursing homes are not Hospitals! Go away Bob. cozy up the latest addition of Trump-Russia collusion and the breathless reports you soaked up for 2 years. Lol buddy
The most important chart is missing. Current total / active hospitalizations due to COVID reflecting new admissions less dismissals (either through death or recovery). Daily admissions only tell one side of the story. A reference point for estimated hospital capacity would be nice also. Are hospitals filling up? How much space is left? When will triage kick in?
This site may help though the data are estimations:
https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america/florida
This is an extremely useful chart (7 day moving average of hospitalizations)
Bob, shame on you!
Um,I just read 172 responses,And all i can say is a lot of you Trump supporters are going to die from Covid 19.So sad.
This such BS. propaganda and fear mongering
To Tallahassee Reports – Orlando station WFTV now reporting that the Florida daily case numbers now include “positive antibody tests”. These are individuals who previously had Covid not new cases. No idea why they are not separating the data but your daily case chart above is terribly misleading. New cases are not increasing- only overall cumulative cases are from testing after the fact (antibody).
The hospitalization data is always higher on Monday and low on Saturday-Sunday. Guessing people just don’t go the hospital on weekends. It’s the same every week in the data above.
I suspect it’s just a lag in reporting from some hospitals on weekends. Weekend dip followed by a Monday catch up.
The chart is slightly misleading: it’s showing hospitalizations REPORTED every day. The hospitalizations could actually have been a week or two before they’re reported.
I suppose the hospitalization chart is for COVID-19 cases but neither the text nor the label makes that clear.
I think both hospitalization and death charts are on covid-19, which is the only thing this whole page addresses.
Hospitalization and death rocketed today.
From where do you get the data for the daily hospitalizations? Is that available online to mere mortals? Graphs show we are flattening the curve and not out of any woods, yet. Thanks.
So…there’s a real disconnect between the headline and the confirmed cases graph which clearly shows new cases climbing.
And they have been at about 1,000 almost every day this week.
It’s not over.
We all wish it was.
It’s just not, though.
Hospitalizations have always been the key Lena. Flatten the curve. We have done that and it is a good thing that people appear to continue to get the virus at a low rate and without the need for hospital care. It helps us build some immunity in our communities before another outbreak hits us. The increase in cases is partially because of 5x the number of tests the last few weeks. Again…hospitalizations show the severity of the outbreak. They continue to decrease and these are daily hospitalizations for “suspected” Covid. Not all of these hospitalizations will be Covid positive. For reference we have 233 hospitals in Florida and 120 people a day needing hospitalization right now.
Covid is more contagious and deadly than
Flu.
However, you are 20 times less likely to
Contract Covid outdoors.
Social distancing and wearing masks will
Further reduce risk
There will be more cases, hospitalizations and deaths as the country opens up.
However, there should be better and earlier identification of those afflicted and better contact tracing.
The downside of further shutdown is enormous.
The government and the fed have pumped 7-8 TRILLION dollars to keep people and businesses afloat.
That is unsustainable.
The human costs:
Huge increases in suicide, marital abuse
Alcohol and drug overdose deaths and
80-100,000 cases of cancer estimated to
Have missed detection.
Hundreds of thousands of symptomatic orthopedic and cardiac cases not getting done.
Millions of jobs lost forever
And millions of children going to bed hungry.
So to the Americans who are concerned about the fairly rapid pace of reopening in spite of more Covid cases and deaths… you should be … but we really have no choice
Unless we are prepared to have a worse depression than the Great Depression
Followed by inflation never seen before in the US.
Catastrophic consequences could be just around the corner if we stay closed or close again in the fall when the virus hits us again.
Thank China!
I thought the original idea of sheltering was to “flatten the curve” so that the number of sick individuals would not overwhelm the medical system. It was never to avoid all deaths (which is not a reasonable goal). The curve has been flattened pretty well (at least in most locations in the US). Opening up will be associated with increased deaths, but hopefully the number of sick will not overwhelm medical services. The most susceptible appear to be the elderly. Would be great if everyone practiced social distancing out of concern for our most vulnerable (even if it is an inconvenience).
It should be discussed that sheltering too long will cost lives as well. If the goal is 100% no loss of life, you have created an unrealistic situation and you can’t blame the other side for the loss if and when a tough decision will be made. Forcing healthy people to live inside and not be out bolstering their immune systems will also lead to many health problems and possible deaths. Please weigh that whether you hide in fear, or choose to find the place when we can all get our lives going again there will be losses of life on either side of this equation. I lost a dear friend recently that was delayed in getting the open room in the hospital for a heart attack because of the chaos and fear in processing at the hospital. Let’s think about this for a second. Putting aside normal procedures that can save people in fear of COVID…
Is the State of Florida now requiring user login information to sign on to the Department of Health COVID-19 Dashboard? I tried to go to the site this morning and it asked me to verify my credentials.
With all of the myriad of numbers reported on Covid deaths and articles spinning the results of the cases and deaths and hospitalizations, I would really appreciate just seeing a number published of the total deaths for all causes in April 2020. I can’t find the number anywhere on the internet and we are at the end of May!!!
Dear Tallahassee Reports staff:
Thank you for this daily update on Covid hospitalizations! It is really the only piece of data that I believe shows the true trend of Covid and it is has shown not only the flattening of the curve by Floridians but no negative effect from re-opening over one month ago (not sure why the news media doesn’t celebrate this at all).
One request – would it be possible to follow-up with the hospitals for maybe a week or two and see how many of these initial Covid-assumed hospitalizations actually turned out tested positive for Covid and how many were flu/pneumonia or other? I have a feeling these hospitalization numbers are even better than shown based on Covid positive test results to date never being over 10%.
Love this thread! A microcosm of our Humanity. It clearly demonstrates, that we are all nothing more than evolved hairless Apes, pretending that we are ‘Intelligent’. there is no intelligence without full knowledge, and there is no full knowledge as we are each driven by our experiences ergo opinions, resulting in a fact being mutable. Me included….
The only valid point made here is that we are all going to die – deal with it. I am capable of deciding my own risk tolerance – who hasn’t run through a yellow->red light? For me I just don’t want to be the reason my Parents/Siblings/Spouse/Children/Grandchildren die.
I wonder how Peoples behavior would be affected if they could see Coronavirus spores through special glasses that made them look like angry bees. Would you avoid them or walk through them or touch them? Afraid of a sting? But not, a metaphorical game of Russian Roulette?
I wonder if Apes run away from Bees?
This is the thing that should differentiate us from Apes – we understand that there are things that are real – even though we can not see/touch it – Air, Sound, Radio Waves, UV rays, Emotion, viruses, germs, the roundness of the Planet.
Why are the totals different between this site and the florida site:
https://fdoh.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/8d0de33f260d444c852a615dc7837c86
So, the curves have flattened. The hospitals are not overwhelmed (though the power-mad illiberal leftist/ Red/ Dem/ collectivist pols in 4 states ordered the most vulnerable people to be exposed, FCOL!).
The test-kits have improved & proliferated. There are over dozen pharmaceutical treatments in various stages of testing (including 4, nearly ready for wide release) and some that have been out for off-label prescription use seem to be effective for many. At least 6 (that I recall offtge cuff) vaccines are in various stages (including 4), and some are expected to be available in 100M dose quantities in October. Masks are more available, instructions for do-it-yourself masks are posted on-line (as are “raven-beaked plague doctor” 14th-17th century hazmat costumes ?).
A series of semi-random testing projects have shown 8%-25% infection rates (higher in over-crowded, leftist-subjugated areas), 0.01%-2.8% mortality, though more extensive testing of this sort (tied to massive privacy violation schemes) is being planned.
Let’s get back to work. On with the Trump visa/immigration/border-security reforms (though he & the squishy congress-critters have been wimping out more & more to the execs & lobbyists for cheap, pliant, low-skilled labor with flexible ethics recently) & economic recovery. No more porkulus. More real jobs (as opposed to gigs/bodyshopping), better job search sites.
It is always a bit amusing to read back through the predictions and see just how many of the predictions, declarations, and conclusions withstood the test of time. During a crisis (in general) or anytime panic manifests this is predictable: Half of what you hear is not true, and the other half will later be proven false.
A practical example: Incoming missile (SCUD) that could contain deadly gas (Sarin). Everybody scrambles and puts on their suits and masks. Missile lands. Everybody waits. Soon, unprotected people come out of shelter and and are have symptoms of pepper stray or crowd control chemical agents. Your choice – stay in the awful charcoal MOP suit and be unable to eat, drink, or use the bathroom or take off the suit and suffer the irritation.
My point being, if you put the mask on out of respect for the predictions, then you should take it off now out of respect for the data. If you keep wearing it at this point, it would be intellectually dishonest to ever take it off again.
I was thinking the same thing Tango. It is interesting how many have gone virtually silent in this string because they stopped following the science and data long ago. Their predictions of doom and gloom if places like GA and FL open up have not come true. It is almost like some are disappointed there hasn’t been the predicted death and illness (or they don’t believe the data anymore?). Instead many only listen to anecdotal negative scary stories of outliers that happen with virtually any virus. The curve was flattened and the hospital system is virtually starving for patients. But data and science all of a sudden don’t matter because it doesn’t fit a narrative. The hate for Trump is blinding people. Intelligent and objective people can look past the stupid things politicians do and say (and both parties have no shortage of stupid). I choose to use my own brain and don’t fall for bias narratives on the left or the right. I follow the science, data, and facts. This is a virus that kills a relatively small percentage of mainly vulnerable precious people on this Earth of 7.5 billion souls and it is scary contagious. This virus is likely not going to go away for years, even with a vaccine. The question shouldn’t be as much about how we want to die, since frankly we are all going to die at some point anyway. The question and discussion should be how we all want to live. Continuing to wait in our houses isn’t going to help since we all have to come out some day. And when we do, there will likely be a resurgence of cases no matter which date we choose. But since the hospitals are not currently overrun, and the curve has more than flattened…its time to start living again. Protect the vulnerable, if they want to be protected, and watch the hospitalization curve to protect our healthcare system and workers, but go on with life as we know it…which carries all kinds of risks, not just COVID-19.
Thanks for publishing TR. Do you have data on the total number of COVID hospitalizations each day? Looking for something that would help understand utilization/capacity. Thanks!
Action News Jax:
“Gov. Ron DeSantis’ administration said Tuesday evening that a Department of Health employee who helped create Florida’s COVID-19 information “dashboard” was fired for insubordination, disputing allegations that she was terminated for refusing to manipulate data”.
Welp, guess we will never really know whats going on now…….not even worth looking at a FL case chart anymore because DeSantis is fudging the numbers.
I find it interesting that some people who think this virus is a farce and want to go back to work will say “if you want to stay home from work that is fine but, let the others go back” at first but then they start referring to those people who want to stay home as cowards. It seems like some are just mad at those who can afford to be cautious and have the choice weather or not they want to go back.
FL Covid Reporting data seems to be categorized based on when it was reported to them, not the actual date of the death. Also, for every new daily update some of the older counts for things like # of tests, hospitalizations, deaths, # of positive deaths, etc. going back as far as 2 weeks also change slightly (almost always in a downward direction). I download the raw data daily and do my own analysis and trending of the data, but it would be nice if they added more detail to the site on the data collection methodology.
Like this website does, I trend most of my data with a 7 day rolling avg. metric since any one individual day typically isn’t really representative of much and eliminates the variability of the weekends.
Why do reported deaths go WAY down on the weekends?
Can’t believe nobody noticed this in the bar graph above.
Do you really think the Coronavirus is taking weekend off?
Just a reminder TMH said by now, best scenario, in our region, 50 new hospitalizations per day. We are currently at near 0.
Thank you for the daily hospitalizations and daily deaths Charts (with 7-day average trend line based on cases reported by the Florida Department of Health DOH) ! These will give a better trend image than positive cases charts do.
Is it possible to provide a comparison chart? For instance, the same period last year, or compilation of the same period over previous years . . . or even January or February of this year?
As the two week frame moves farther away from March, it becomes difficult to see a piece of ‘normal’ . . . Thanks Again!
so, its been a month since I’ve posted anything. Leon County population is 293,582. The County has suffered 6 deaths attributed to the virus thru today. I noticed my barber back at work yesterday. I wonder how many folks actually read this long a string of comments? Must have a new important opinion or something!
Interesting to see the ignorance & stupidity spewed out in these comments back in April. Sadly fox is still foaming at the mouth.
Overblown? Seriously? 4.17 MILLION cases worldwide and the US with the highest death rate at over 80,000? I’d hate to hear what you think “really serious” is. The way to get ahead of COVID-19 has been demonstrated by many other Countries… and we are not following their lead. If science, and the examples proven to work are going to be ignored, then at least mandate gloves and masks for everyone out publicly…. Regardless of whether you are being cautious or not- ASK yourself “What if I’m wrong?” If wearing protective precautionary masks etc is in fact over zealous, unnecessary who is going to be at risk or hurt because you are “wrong”.. If on the other hand you are not practicing precautionary measures?? Who could possibly be negatively impacted by your choice?
Yeah overblown. 99.5% of people who get it, recover. The flu kills 30-50k every year, and infects 50 million in the US every year. Viruses are a fact of nature. We should take reasonable measures to avoid infecting others, treat it where possible and continue to let the health care industry create wealth and jobs by fighting them. But we have almost no cases in Leon County. We have event hit 1% confirmed cases in the US. We dont need to be in total lockdown.
We need to open up and be smart about our behavior. The lockdown slowed us down and showed us how to be safe. Now its up to us to know the risks of our behaviors and to get on with life.
We are Floridians. We know how ridiculous the notion is of trying to repair your home while in the midst of a tropical storm or hurricane. The pandemic is no different. If you truly want businesses to open up, we need to do a true lock-down plus a substantial increase in testing and contact tracing. The pandemic dies down from the lock-down while the testing and tracing ensures that we catch any new flare ups or importations. These things are necessary to create public confidence and allow things to reopen. What we are doing now is fixing our house while in eye of the hurricane. Beyond foolish.
Why does the DOH dashboard show much lower numbers? Less than 20 deaths per day.
This is a big RUSE. Social control and compliance test for next event.
When you restrict the freedoms of the sick, it’s called quarantining.
When you restrict the freedoms of the well, it’s called TYRANNY.
I didn’t know that “tyranny” is a synonym of “logical.”
Good point, News Maven! If anything, quarantining sick people is also Tyranny! I don’t see anything in the Constitution that says someone may have their freedoms restricted if they are sick. If I have corona virus, AIDS, Ebola, and Cat Scratch Fever, there is nothing, NOTHING, in the CONSTITUTION, that says the Government can restrict my rights to go shopping, play basketball, or goto a swing dance. It’s like these people haven’t even read the Constitution, or more likely, are in bed with Soros and other Dem-Socialists because they hate America.
What’s more, I should be free to run red lights. They are restricting *my freedom* to get to where I need to go at the timeframe I need to get there. It’s *my* decision if I am going to endanger myself, and if someone else doesn’t want to get hit by my car, they can stay home like sheeple.
MAGA!
Im confused how you get a 72 average new deaths today, when there has been less than 40 deaths per day according to the DOH.
Nm, the black line is the average. Charts are supposed to have a legend.
ALL of the numbers are artificially low. If only people who have symptoms get tested then it is not a random sample so it does not accurately express what the infection rate is. If we knew the true numbers of deaths and infections, no one would leave their home. Also masks are a bad idea as it only makes the likely hood of touching your face higher.
Had to point out. Based on a report of 650+ positive cases in the big bend on another media outlet. Okay. Feel free to correct my math or confirm my numbers. Based on the total population (most stats from 2018, so probably now higher), the population in the same Big Bend areas listed Is 618,520. Or a covid infection rate of .001%. A death rate of .00004%. Again if my numbers or percentages are off I’d like to hear but probably not by much. All deaths and illnesses are sad and tragic, however in my opinion the current statistics do not justify a mandatory shutdown and closures that we are currently experiencing. When a person sees just the headlines the media puts out there to get attention without including all the facts, that panders the fear mongering.
Nice information. I would also like to see county data and include the number of test conducted each day like Gov DeSantis described a few days ago in his TV briefing. As I recall he referred to that graph as “Positivity” and stated it is the most important tool to look at all this data.
Facts first, the KKK has mutated into what everybody knows are Southern republicans, except what changes besides hating everyone that’s not white, they include all poor whites. So expect more voter repression, less benefits that ya can’t even get what’s out there now, and health care that already the worst in the country. So all you poor folk get out there and get sick, fill the pockets of Republicans pockets with more money.
This is TERRIFIC data, thank you. What jumps out at me, though on April 30 is that if we look at the WHITE HOUSE CRITERIA wanting 14 days of falling Hospitalizations, and falling new cases, we have NOT achieved both. The trend line for hospitalizations is barely changing.
So if we follow the directions that TRUMP released a few weeks ago for the phased reopening, looking to see 14 DAYS OF DECLINE, FL SHOULD NOT YET BE REOPENING.
Those were the criteria they set out!
We have one hospitalization per day in Leon County.
Regarding the New Cases graph, shouldn’t there be a graph of some kind indicating the very low number of test kits available in Tallahassee daily?
Hey, Allison, why don’t you go watch a little more CNN & MSNBC? You’ll feel better. Or, better yet – get a job.
Wow Allison… bitter much?
The rich will continue to stay safe at home even if the state re-opens. It is always those who HAVE to work who force themselves to go to work even when they feel lousy. You think Barron Trump will be going back to school anytime soon? No. But all other kids will have to if they open schools. If you didn’t need to work because of financial security, and you and your spouse had health issues, would you go out like it’s any other day? If you had kids would you feel comfortable letting them go back to school now…if it means possibly bringing Covid-19 home and Gramma lives with you? And for those who keep saying how great the economy was before Covid-19 came along (ala Trump’s bragging the same)…how come so many people in our country are broke and standing in food bank lines after no income for a couple of weeks? Millions of people living paycheck to paycheck and/or working two jobs just to make ends meet is NOT the definition of a great economy. Those who invest in the stock market might agree with Trump, but most Americans don’t make enough money to save anything from their checks. That ain’t “great”. I’m sure Bubba, donning his MAGA hat and guzzlin’ suds in his trailer, while watching FOX, just believes what he hears. Go on back to work…risk your health and the health of others, even though the economy was and won’t be great still. Hurry! That hamster wheel is cold from inactivity!
Allison, thats why people work, save, spend wisely. You should ask why everyone isnt emulating the rich.
Allison, you can overcome your fear of death and that of your loved ones by believing and sharing the good news of God, which is briefly summarized below:
God made the world and everything in it. Therefore, He is the owner and rightful ruler of the entire universe, and we are all accountable to Him.
However, the Bible tells us, and our consciences remind us, that we have all sinned against God. We have all rebelled against God and sought to live by our own rules and desires. We disobey His law by lying, lust, sinful anger, selfishness, and many other ways. God is a just and righteous judge. He will judge all who have disobeyed Him, sentencing them to Hell for eternity.
But God, in His love and mercy, made a way by which He could uphold His justice and forgive the guilty. He sent His Son, Jesus, into the world. Jesus is fully God and now fully man. By becoming a man, He was able to live the perfect life God required of us and to die and take the penalty we deserve for our sin. He was raised from the dead so that our sins could be fully paid for, and we could have His perfect life counted for us.
This is the good news of God. The Bible says that if you will turn from your sin and trust in Jesus as your Savior, relying on His death and resurrection as your only hope of satisfying God’s demands, you will be forgiven by God and given new and eternal life. How will you respond? Will you trust in your own goodness on judgment day, or will you trust Jesus now?
Are new cases really going down OR is there just a shortages of test kits? Bond Clinic only had five test kits?
Whooo this is new:
Look closely at the new graph.
It’s clearly telling us we must cower in fear, binge watch Net Flix, and get fat untill right after Joe Biden is elected.
Look closely now….there you see it too!!!
FYI with about 17 degrees of freedom (df = n – 1; 4/8 through 4/26 -> n=18; df = 18 – 1 = 17), TR could probably extend that declining trendline at least two weeks (i.e., 14 days, or until around 5/10), maybe three, if you wanted to push it.
How is the black trend line calculated? It looks strangely low for the first half of the data.
The black line is a seven day average. Therefore, at 3/27 the black line represents an average of the cases reported from 3/21-3/27. The reported cases on four of those days were below 300.
I am a physician and work in a risk-associated environment. I wash my hands 20x per day, encourage social distancing . I wear a mask whenever I am out of my home. I wear it to go to the grocer, the pharmacist, and certainly when in my office seeing patients. I have not seen my grandson in 6 weeks as there is fear I could bring an infection into his home or their household could pass it on to me- the old guy in the group.
The mask says two things: 1. We live in very uncertain times. 2. It is, however, very certain that I will do all the things we currently accept that will reduce the risk of my hurting anyone else (family, friend, stranger) or myself.
No , you are not stupid. Find a more enlightened group of souls.
Young, healthy, need to work? No senior citizens in your household? Okay, fine, go back to work, but is it asking too much to wear a god damned mask? In pictures from China EvERYONE is wearing masks including Xi. Here, by contrast, no one is, including Trump. Now we have maybe 20 tomes the Covid cases as China. Coincidence? I was at a gathering yesterday among 50 other souls and I was the only one wearing a mask. So am I the stupid one?
Yes.
Any other questions, sheeple?
Not stupid, but neither was anyone else. Theres a 99.99% chance no one at your gathering had the virus, Why not wear a helmet too in case you fell down, which is far more likely.
Point being you dont NEED a mask, but it doesnt hurt.
I support the thought that groceries and stores like Walgreens, even doctors offices could continue to close early, disinfect and have the vulnerable to come in early. That is obviously working where I live in the hot spot of south Florida because the same people are working in Publix, Sams, and other stores that I shop at and they have been there for the 6 weeks we have all be quarantined. I would love for anyone who feels it is a problem for them personally to feel free to stay home and get delivery. I deliver to my disable sister in law. But I go out 3 to 4 times a week to pick up groceries, a meal I ordered, drop off a package at the post office. But one thing we need to remember – people cannot get elective surgery – that includes any elective surgery like a colonoscopy, a biopsy, a baby getting tubes in their ears to relieve serious pain, an ACL for someone who tore it before the stay at home. And this does not address families in unhealthy situations, people in depression, or suicidal. There has to be some balance, and opening a few things here and there is needed.
I would support more business openings if we could ALL have n95 masks. Those are the only thing that prevent the virus from entering your body, and that’s not 100%. But of course our federal government can’t figure out how to produce those masks OR tests either. Until then, it has to be lockdown for everybody.
I neither know anyone who has Kung-flu nor do I know anyone who knows anyone who HAS or HAD it. With that knowledge, and after reading “how to lie with statistics” in the 10th grade I doubt a lot of the accuracy of the data, the source of the data, and the relevance of certain bits of data.
It seems that we hear a lot of suggestions/mandates/conclusions that are based on questionable data at best…..anecdotes at the least.
NOBODY has the answer right now and we are NEVER going to not be susceptible to this or any other current or future virus so then this then becomes, or in my humble opinion SHOULD become, a personal decision. Stay inside if you feel safest that way or go out with PPE or just go out and get on with your life and try not to jeopardize anyone’s else’s health. But for the love of GOD please don’t continue to trample on my freedoms, my rights, or my livelihood.
This, my friends, is why the second amendment is the second amendment!
I think LB + Lena should take their own advise and NEVER LEAVE THEIR HOUSES AGAIN!!
Party at my place!
This situation is serious.
There are some days when the virus is the leading cause of death in the US.
There is no vaccine and no cure.
The only thing you can do is try to stop it from spreading.
Or you can end up like Albany, GA where one infected person reportedly made 1,400 sick and killed 100 people. As Albany is only less than two hours away, I’m not sure why this hasn’t been the top story here.
Worst case scenario seems to be Ecuador where corpses are not picked up and have been left rotting in homes and in the street.
Yeah, it’s a serious problem and King of Stupid saying you could drink bleach or fry yourself with UV light is further insanity.
Not the only thing you can do. 99% of people can fight it naturally with antibodies, recover in a couple weeks at most and get on with their lives instead of hiding and obsessing about Trump.
Not a single person asked for this to happen and people are dying every day. If it affected any of the people spreading hate and blame it would change their tune. Stay safe and avoid those who choose to be ignorant. People can go back to work when it’s safe.
Great, lets go back to work then, because its safe. Almost no one in Leon County has it. Almost everyone who does have it has minor symptoms.
At this point we need to shelter Grandmom, Grandpop, and all our disabled citizens. Some others also with underlying health issues.
The remainder of you healthy able bodied folks are gonna report for work ASAP.
That’s right you!
No more binge watching no more pajamas in the daytime no more masturbation alcohol and drug enhanced marathons all day for you lazy pukes. Yes its time to un-ass from the comfy couch and report for work for all of you!!!
Open our beloved economey back up.
No disrespect intended but you all need to get to work, wear masks, use hand sanitizer, and whatever. But it over already.
If you follow the basic protection you still might get sick but you will survive what will be no more than maybe a bad cold for you healthy folks. Stop being whiney diaper babies and take your ass back to work.
I wonder why hospitalizations spike on the weekends? Are people working all week, then when they have a little time off going to get seen? Maybe they only have time to take loved ones on the weekend? Seems like an interesting dynamic…
Since not testing would be a great way to keep numbers down….I’d like to see a chart with testing figures as well.
This graph is only reflective of testing and hospitalization. Duval county testing sites were down last week due to rain. It neither accounts for deaths only hospitalizations. Many, like nursing homes do not go to hospitals. These charts are misleading. Considered they are not from an independent source I have to wonder if they are politically driven. Good luck Lenny Curry on your meet with POUS.
I know a few of my relatives were sick different times.. called doctor was directed where to go. Fever shortness of breath etc. None were given the test.. sent home with inhalers and antibiotics they were sick at least two weeks antibiotics didnt make it better but about the 14th day they just got better. They dont want to even test you unless gasping for breath. I think that’s why so many die at home or dont get to the hospital in time.. causing them to need a ventilator. Not a good chance of making it at that point. Just saying for sure cases are not getting reported because they are not testing you unless you need oxygen or worse. Not a single one of relatives were tested…we cant be the only ones this has happened to.
And yet we have 90% negative tests? How does that square?
I certainly am hopeful that with the beaches opening for “athletic’s, swimming, dog walking…but no sunbathing!!!!!. I found it interesting to see pictures of people lying on the beach. And forget the 6′ distance. Those of you who want your freedom….go for it, but leave me and mine ALONE, AND God forbid you get ill, remember….it was you who wanted freedom. To hell with the rest of the world. The attitude of many Americans is everyone for themselves, and God for no one. Let me tell you. I am a semi-retired RN, with a BSN, and am board certified. I have dealt with HTLV3, AIDS, ARC. I have worked on every floor there is. For heavens sake people, follow the rules. Wear a mask, stay 6′ away from each other. We nurses work hard enough without some non-compliant people who wonder….gee what happened” please please show care for yourselves, family, friends, the guy down the street.
Is it possible, the reason that they aren’t testing as many people in Leon county, because they aren’t being directed to do so. I thought that you had to have signs/symptoms to be tested, pretty much directed by your doctor to a testing center.
Not seeing a down trend yet, so still wait and see. However, does 200 hospitalized per day really require everyone losing their job and businesses? Or 1 hospitalization per week in Leon?
This is what happens when you let agenda-driven, taxpayer-funded, grant-dependent “scientists” play with a altered and modified SIMs game…
No one should believe or react to any of this nonsense. No Informed American should accept any of this until we’re shown empirical data and a side-by-side comparative chart that depicts and compares the “real” year-to-date number of deaths “caused by” Covid-19 here in America… to the year-to-date number of deaths from the common flu, car wrecks, diabetes, cancer, abortion, trip and falls, et al…
But this will never happen, lest we expose the ruse and manufactured hysteria that is designed to destroy our economy and Republic. Wake up America!
May God continue to bless and protect America, Her President, Her Constitution, Her Laws, Her Sovereignty, and Her Citizens.
While The Trump virus is recognized by all thinking people on Earth to be the left’s last desperate hope to fling dooky on Trump before the Great Conservative 2020 presidential landslide, thats just a bunch of fluff like Russia Russia and Impeach Impeach Impeach, everybody knows we need to get back to work.
Will people die from The Left’s Trump virus after we open up and get back to work? Hell yes some will die. Are we gonna get back to work? Hell yes we are gonna get back to work!!!
Will Virus Virus Virus prevent Trump from being elected? Hell no Virus Virus Virus will NOT prevent Trump from being re elected.
The left is so lame!!!!
HELL YES!! No re-election of the egomaniacal, ignorant, moron!?
Why bring SpINO Pelosi into this?
The virus is now the LEADING CAUSE OF DEATH in the US.
“COVID-19, the illness caused by the novel coronavirus, is now the deadliest disease in the United States, killing more people per day than cancer or heart disease. According to a graph published Tuesday by Dr. Maria Danilychev, who practices in San Diego…”
OK. We should NOT be returning to business as usual because we would just be infecting thousands of more people.
ONE INFECTED PERSON was all it took to make thousands of others sick and kill about 80 people in Albany, Georgia when they weren’t taking this situation seriously enough.
Why does anyone want thousands more infected and dead people, after which, the economy will be ruined again anyway?
This week sure. This year not even close.
Forgive this idiot’s questions and rant-filled diatribe, but:
Why is the pandhandle of Florida not being tested to the same degree that south Florida is? Our neighbors to the north in Georgia have a huge number of positives along the FL/GA border, we have a huge number of positives in LA, Alabama, the rest of Florida, yet the panhandle is not being tested? I have done a daily check on the FL dept of health Covid website for the last few weeks, everyday they tested, we had the state average of 10% positive returns on tests. Leon county alone was adding roughly 10 to 20 new cases every day. Then the testing stopped. The tests in Leon county stalled for about 4 days at roughly 1950 tests done. No new tests (or so minimal it didn’t move the counter), no new positives. Did they do this to keep the numbers artificially low? All of sudden, they began testing again. Testing numbers went over 2k, and what do you know, positives went up another 10% with it. The population of Leon county is close to 300k, yet the county has only performed 2k tests – that is less than 1% of the popluation. The local hospital even stated that they are showing more hospitalized and positive patients than are being reported by the department of health, to which the DoH said, we are looking into the discrepancies. . .
Is Leon county hiding their numbers? Why are they not testing? There is no sickness in the capital, nothing to see here? Political Gain?
Just a frustrated resident that wants to know the truth and what is going on…
Just try to find tests!! We’re not getting many according to medical staff. Probably punishment for being a blue county??
I just read an article this morning that a federal Leon County prison WORKER tested positive for coronavirus. I’m thinking, he caught it and brought it into the Prison. With that said, why doesn’t Prisons and Jails have someone standing at the Entrance checking the Temperatures of all those coming in? Same thing for all State, City & County Buildings. With all the Stay Home and Work From Home orders, there are very few people in those Buildings. Make all those Buildings “One Way In / One Way Out” so it can be controlled.
@Tony –
One of the reasons that COVID spreads so much more rapidly than the standard flu is that you can be spreading it for days without showing any symptoms yourself. Sure, if you have a fever, you might have it. But not having a fever is no indication you are COVID free. Just staying home once you are sick doesn’t do anything about the time frame before you got sick where you can still spread the virus.
Deep, that’s how the flu spreads too. We just dont track it obssessivly and millions of people vaccinate. 50 million people got the flu last year in the us.
This is different. Everyone gets sick quickly not over the span of a year. Then the hospitals get overrun. Are you not seeing what is happening in New York and THE WHOLE WORLD!
Yeah, thats life. We have one million beds just in hospitals in the US. 99% of people are unaffected, have no worse than flu symptoms. Florida’s hospital capacity is only 38% full. Leon county has one hospitalization a week. Was it worth panicking?
The cure is worse than the disease. Get us reopened asap. We can always close again if we turn into NY. It’s not about lives vs. health, its about lives vs. lives. Put on a mask and get to work. I feel like we are all “Marvin the Martian” waiting for the big boom. There has never been a big boom here. I’m starting to question the models that said 2.2 million people would die even with Social distancing. This was completely false and we are still using these models. I’m throwing a b’s flag on some of this. Let’s proceed with caution and get reopened now!!!
The cure is worse than the disease? Seriously? You could DIE from the Disease or put up with a few weeks of being alone and filling bad………… I will take a few weeks of being alone and filling bad ANY day. You are not THAT important to risk any ones LIFE because YOU think you are special.
We are well past “a few weeks” knucklehead.
IWake up Tony. t’s lives vs lives. Watch the drug and alcohol rates rise. Suicide rates rise. Crime rates rise as we keep everything closed. Staying away from work will cost lives also.
This is one of the dumbest things I’ve ever heard
Actually deaths from the lockdowns themselves are inevitable, Its just an actuarial certainty.
Yes. The risk is very low. The likelihood of recovery is high.
And then I can run (well, walk) out and do something far more risky: crossing Tennessee Street near the U to get to the library, confronting power-mad privacy violators, spraying chrysanthemum, geranium, &/or eucalyptus juice on the fierce mosquitoes the city breeds (capable of carrying dengue, yellow fever, malaria, or more commonly locally, encephalitis).
Do a StartPage or DuckDuckGo search and weigh your risks. CDCP says:
647,457 die from heart disease in a year
599,108 from malignant neoplasms
121,494 from Alzheimer’s complications
83,564 from diabetes
73,990 from illicit drugs
55,672 from influenza & pneumonia
50,633 from nephritis & related problems
47,173 from suicide
41,743 from liver dysfunction
40,231 from vehicular accidents (down from over 50K back in 1950s, up from about 37K some years ago)
35,823-80K from ethanol consumption
35,316 from hypertension
31,963 from Parkinson’s
30,488 from prostate cancer
15K murdered (aggregate all means)
There are far too many Reds for it to be a blue county.
6 months in, covid beats everything on your list except heart disease and malignant neoplasms.
There is still not enough testing being done to be certain it is not going to go up! I live in the Villages where testing is nearly impossible to get! Many do not even know of opportunity to request testing at the county health department, if they qualify that is. I found out, made an appointment, was there earlier than my appointed time and there was no body there! ? The people here already have a false sense of security with low numbers and death toll, have gotten a very late start on mitigation efforts, so numbers are going to spike before they go down in this area.?
@Lia –
“I live in the Villages where testing is nearly impossible to get!”
Clearly false. Trump has said repeatedly that there are plenty of tests. A tremendous number. Anyone who wants to be tested, can be tested.
President Trump is NOT the one handing them out. You need to Call or Email your Elected Officials and ask them WHY your area is not getting the need Tests.
Go to your local Health Department.. but if you are not sick stay home!
Are you kidding you must not have kids and if you do I feel very sorry for them. This is not a joke ppl are dying it’s very sad actually of what is going on as a mother I wouldn’t allow my kids near a school or go back to work you need a reality check…
Oh because Trump said it, it must be true. I am a nurse and I ASSURE YOU that until yesterday you could not get a test unless you had symptoms, even then you had to be referred by your doctor or in the hospital.
This post is so true. Trump says we have lots of tests. Wrong. He has assured us we would be safe from the virus at least 34 times [Washington Post]. We have lost countless lives because of Trump’s stupidity. We need anyone besides someone with the brain power of a squirrel to run this country.
I like that the brain of a squirrel!I refer to him as the”PIG”< PLAN? WHAT PLAN!So tired of his INCOMPETENCE! HE HAS TO GO!!!
Why would you get a test if your not sick?you do not need one if your not sick thats like getting a test for strep but your throat feels fine.
to get clearance to go back to work after an exposure.
I just heard that the Democrat has a Leon County Zip Code Chart now. 32304 has the highest COVID-19 Cases.
https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/96dd742462124fa0b38ddedb9b25e429
cases by zip code
Is it true the Corona Virus testing is more likely to be a false negative than a false positive?
Also folks being tested are being tested because they are suspect of having the virus?So, if they test negative now they could still potentially get it later?
Wonder how many folks might have virus but don’t realize it because they previously had test and the outcome was negative because the test was innacurate or given prior to them actually getting the virus?
John, yes there are more false negatives than false positives. And, yes a person can test negative if he is so newly infected that the virus’s DNA doesn’t show up yet in the test, and yes it means that person can still get the virus at any time in the future.
Time to go back to work, school and play. This is way overblown.
Seriously? You’re willing to gamble when the risk is life or death? Do us all a favor and make sure you are clearly marked so we can avoid you.
Happy to, so long as our family and our employees can earn a living, keep our business afloat, and pay our bills. I’ll wear a shiny gold star, like the Jews did in Nazi Germany.
every time I hear such simplistic arguments aided by emotionally inflammatory rhetoric, I feel that every American should be required to take a Logic course during K-12 so you’d know how weak and bogus your conclusions are. I know they seem logical to you because you do not know how to differentiate. But to me I always feel I’m at a bar at 2 AM listening to all the drunks solving the world’s problems or back in High School where the nerds were shunned and disregarded as the rest grew up to be the ones that shun elites and disregard science cause it makes them feel better about themselves and their cognitive abilities.
Perhaps instead of the gold star you could wear your IQ score or level of schooling.
Does that logic course include liberals or only liberal logic? LiberalismIsAMentalDisorder
As a liberal dem I respectfully want to say that your attack on this person doesn’t represent me . There are people who are figuratively and literally being killed by this lockdown.
If you have the means to stay home and want to then we respect that. But please don’t attack others who can’t. They are not the enemy
Your attack and OBVIOUS bias against those that do not carry your “fear” of not being led by the nose through the trials and tribulations of adulthood make your entire opinion worthless. Your IQ level is most likely in the 85-95 point range, so attacking others for something they are not in control of shows you an uncouth and reprehensible human being. The thought process behind such uncalled for attacks are the same mindless attacks we witnessed from the ANTIFA crowd. If you want to cower behing mommy’s skirt, feel free to do so. Others are well aware that life itself consists of many risks – some more overt than others – but are willing to live life without the hand-holding of the government nannies that you and your ilk seem to find so necessary…
Gene, it appears that you like throwing around big words to aid your inflammatory tirade to try make yourself feel better about your self professed superior opinion while offering nothing substantial or constructive to the conversation.
You’re stroking your own ego and simultaneously using name calling to try and make you and your argument sound more important than they actually are.
The entirety of your response was a diatribe and everyone is dumber for having listened to it.
Rather condescending. The lock downs are killing people too and ruining others. Skip the condescending reply. I made my living as a health insurance actuary/forecasting/strategic planning guy for decades (translation a job for really smart people who, among other things, do projections and analysis of health care data every day). Deaths are up for every thing from cancer (delayed treatment) to suicides. Look it up.
Check out the “Dunning-kruger” effect. Basically the theory is that the less intellectually endowed one is, the less capable one is of knowing that they lack the intellect to judge their own intellectual capabilities.
In other words, they are too dumb to know how dumb they are!!?
I did check out the “Dunning-Kruger” effect. I had never heard of it before. Their theory was first published twenty-one years ago, and it inspired a bunch of follow-on study. But as of 2020, their conclusions have all been shown to be totally fictitious. It was nothing more than bad math. It’s really strange that it took twenty years for competent mathematicians to reexamine the statistical biases that were propagated through two decades of work by many psychologists.
No matter how much we might agree that something is true, we’ve got to believe the math. There’s a lesson here. (BTW. I intend no criticism of opinions here. But I can’t pass a chance to identify flaws in logic.)
EXACTLY!!! ??
It’s people like you for which Darwinism reigns.
Easy on the illogical, ignorant and racist analogies.
what are you talking about
Donna, easy on the ignorant, illogical and racist analogies.
Donna, some of the Jews had gold badges, some had different colors. Everywhere they conquered they forced identification.
Once isolated they were obvious targets.
Then the Jews were tattooed with bar codes and led to slaughter. So were the gypsies, homosexuals, and anyone else they had questions about.
Meanwhile, the Soviets murdered tens of millions of people, we “lost” a lot of POW’s, and stole all of the Japanese assets and tossed them into concentration camps. And firebombed population centers. Japan is of course famous for the rape of Nanking. Italy used flamethrower tanks against African soldiers armed with spears.
I could go on. Bottom line, it was horrific, and I think you should know and say a little more specifically.
I don’t mean to flame or bash etc. It’s just that when we distort the past, we forget the lessons that could have been learned.
And the 40+ million people’s story gets further and further back in time.
Facts are important. Please try in the future to be a little cleaner.
You are disgusting! Shame on you!!
Go hide in your closet. This is a fraud and will be proven so whether you want to believe it or not.
Mortality rate will end up being the same as the swine flu one tenth of one percent.
Grow up
How do you account for 58,906 people dying in two months WITH most of the country shut down? That would be 352,000 deaths if nothing changes. So what would happen without this shutdown? When have they had to build overflow hospitals in the US? When has Italy just let people die because they do not have enough beds, nurses and doctors, vents…that did not happen with the swine flu. Running out of PPE? This did not happen with swine flu in 2009, not even close. No one was told to wear a bandana as a mask all day in my 30 years of nursing.
I agree it does not have an average 3% mortality as now is apparent both because we have not overwhelmed health care so we have enough to take care of folks unlike Spain and Italy. Not sure what it will end up being but this is MUCH more serious that swine flu and certainly more serious than the regular flu.
Just to make a small correction about Italy. The reports that they were letting people die because they didn’t have enough beds was related to a situation in one small hospital in a small town in the primary outbreak area. They have had this happen with bad influenza years as well. Additionally, if you look at Italy, the vast majority of the country experienced roughly the same number of hospitalizations as they normally do. Interestingly, the area that had the longest lasting outbreak was the first area to lockdown 10 days before the rest of the country did, and that is raising many questions. All of this information is directly available on the Italian Ministry of Health’s website, where you can see a daily breakdown by each province in Italy of new cases, new hospitalizations, ICU admissions, deaths, secondary tests total, positive and negative, as well as the number of people that were marked as “recovered” after 2 negative tests in a 48 hour timespan. The amount of data they have released is significantly more than we are seeing in the U.S. Furthermore, Italy came out of lockdown six weeks ago, they are not wearing face masks, and are only doing limited social distancing, yet their hospitalizations and critical cases have been plummeting to the extent that there are very few active cases remaining.
No one actually knows how many people would die but for the lockdowns. The models don’t have enough meaningful data (to new) to be accurate (even when lock downs and social distancing were factored in). They have been overstated from square one. I have sympathy for the forecasters however. I have been tasked at various points in the past to do projections of new healthcare programs and health insurance products. It is not for the faint of heart.
We do know that continued lockdowns are causing deaths as well as the actual Covid deaths. The lock downs prevented the health care system from bing overwhelmed. Continuing them will kill people too.
Go ask Cuomo why he made a conscious decision to send infected people back into nursing homes? There is no other reasonable explanation other than to drive up the death rate. In New Hampshire, Bernie’s home state and in Minnesota, 80% of the covid deaths were in nursing homes. This mass murder was inflicted on the elderly to create mass hysteria for one purpose only; for political gain. This shows how far the liberals are willing to go in an election year. It is time to wake up, open your eyes and take responsibility for your own decisions and life. No one is forcing you to go to work, to the gym or for a haircut. I worked hard to earn a great education and paid for it all myself while raising a family as a single mother. I was not privileged and Had no government handouts. Because of that, I was able to continue going to work through the entire pandemic. Wearing a mask, washing my hands and social
Distancing has kept me covid free. It is time for our liberal political leaders to stop the fear mongering and lock downs that are Destroying low income families. If you have a family member who is at risk, you can social distance. Don’t try to shame me if I am not cowering in my basement like some people we know when I am behaving very responsibly, not putting anyone at risk.
Hmmmm 12,500 deaths in the US in a year from swine flu compared to over 80,000 deaths since March. Yeah that’s a really good comparison there.
One half of one percent of the two hundred million infected required to achieve “Herd Immunity” equals one million deaths plus millions of survivors with permanently scarred lungs. You may be among the fortunate 75% who display no symptoms, but you may spread death and disability anyway.
No one actually knows how many people would die but for the lockdowns. The models don’t have enough meaningful data (to new) to be accurate (even when lock downs and social distancing were factored in). They have been overstated from square one. I have sympathy for the forecasters however. I have been tasked at various points in the past to do projections of new healthcare programs and health insurance products. It is not for the faint of heart.
We do know that continued lockdowns are causing deaths as well as the actual Covid deaths. The lock downs prevented the health care system from bing overwhelmed. Continuing them will kill people too.
the one needing to grow up is you, over 100,00 dead Americans is not a fraud, those who ignore this virus are only making it worse for those who are responsible!
So you think that the hospitals murdered people as part of a conspiracy? That they used all their ventilators on people that didn’t need them and that they put innocent people in comas? That the trailers full of corpses with nowhere else to put them is part of a hoax? That my neighbors who are gone are not really dead? I never met anyone who was hospitalized from the flu much less intubated, but now I know many who were and some who died.
This didn’t age well.
Ditto that ^. The death count per day is currently trending upward. Per day. Terrible irony. Sad to see the early posts here.
still think it’s fraud?
4 months later and you’re right! ? this entire shamdemic is just that! Political Sham!
The risk is always life or death everyday. You can die walking across the street.
Less than 2% of the global population has been infected with Covid19.
Of the 2% over 80% have a mild case with favorable outcomes.
Of the 2% only 20% have severe cases needing hospital care.
The death rate is still being calculated but it is less than 10% of the global 2%.
2019 Flu killed over 80,000 people the economy did not shut down.
This is more political than a risk to the general population.
At this point people who don’t known what to do to protect themselves are a perfect example of Darwin’s survival of the fittest.
You data is not accurate. The flu deaths are globally and for 1 year. Compare that to Corona deaths of more than 200,000 in a 7-week period. This is a serious virus that doesn’t just kill old people.
Not correct. According to who, the global death rate for the flu is much higher than 80K. “The World Health Organization estimates that worldwide, annual influenza epidemics result in about 3-5 million cases of severe illness and about 250,000 to 500,000 deaths. [21] In the United States, individual cases of seasonal flu and flu-related deaths in adults are not reportable illnesses; consequently, mortality is estimated by using statistical models. [1]” Also, in 98% of the deaths from corona virus, the deceased had an underlying condition.
Spot on!!!! Jessica
Agree. This wasn’t worth shutting down whole economy and ruining many businesses. Some will never come back.
Flu deaths are only estimated not tracked,manses on a model that is where the number comes from. Er dr, in Boston said he doesn’t remember anyone on his watch of 22 years dying from the flu as well as his team. So it is not a large number like you said. I m 65 never knew anyone who die from the flu.
Jessica, actually there were approximately 34,000 deaths due to the 2018-2019 flu season.
this virus has only begum and you talk like its over!
When its over far too many would have died needlessly because of stupid decisions by those in power who chose money over life!
Over 100,000 died so far and the economy DID shut down (imagine the number dead if it didn’t)
Your point?
You do know that over 40% of these deaths were in nursing homes, right? Imagine if the stupid governors and mayors hadn’t forced facilities to keep infected people they had no ability to properly treat what the difference would be.
Stay home and you won’t have to worry about catching Coronavirus. Let the people that want to work go about their business.
Lynn, you must have a nice amount of money to think this way! Some of us, have to work or we cannot survive! So, you stay home and cower!
Well, that’s where the government should have stepped in to help the waiters and the hairdressers, etc. And it should be paid for with higher taxes on the top 1%, who have absurd amounts of money. Why should anyone really have over a billion dollars? Are they that much more important than the others? No, our system is just broken. The government did try to step in to increase unemployment compensation and the PPP small business loans, but the implementation was poor. They increased unemployment compensation but administered through the state unemployment offices. If you work in a state unemployment office (a) you are used to having less than 1/10 of the cases that are coming in now, and (b) the mindset in which you have been trained is that people are lazy and you should deny benefits whenever possible. The government guaranteed loans were funneled through banks, who tend to take care of their largest customers first. We needed a strong federal response to the twin crises, economic and health; as strong as the New Deal was as a response the the 1929 market crash and great depression; and as strong as the response of the U.S. was in WWII, when just a stunning volume of aircraft carriers, planes, tanks and weapons were produced in a short time that required strong leadership and some sacrifice from everyone. We needed Franklin Delano Roosevelt. What did we get? a so-so real estate investor turned reality TV star. We should pass a new constitutional amendment that nobody associated with reality TV can again ever be elected President of this once great country. TV is all about entertaining drama that doesn’t produce any benefit to society. We need substance, not show. Trump said he’d make America great again. Instead he made us the laughing stock of the world. And let a lot of people become impoverished, unemployed or dead just because of his focus on his image and wealth rather than the awesome responsibility of the President of the United States.
like Stephen, a real communist/socialist. You got it, I want it, give it to me because he has declared you have too much. Just remember, the major liberals running this land through Google, Apple, etc. are Billionaires many times over and hate on Trump, who CNN would fat check on whether he had $4Billion or $9Billion. just priceless. Move to China and submit Stephen.
Staying home, if you can is the most logical thing to do. Those that can’t need to go back to work if they are not part of the most vulnerable populations (who may need some financial help if they are not already retired). The lockdowns did prevent the system from being overloaded but they should have ended by Memorial day.
How about you just wear your mask and cower in the corner and the rest of us can get back to work and pay our bills and support our families. This whole situation wasn’t so you wouldn’t catch it, it was so we wouldn’t serve in the hospital. We’re past that now. This is a virus and we have to learn to live with it, it’s not just going to go away because you wear a mask and wash your hands. If you’re afraid of dying stay home.
I was wondering where the hell are all the idiots I’m hearing about who have their heads in the sand. Found them!!! As if you’re brave to go out and risk exposing your friends and family instead of a selfish coward who cares more about their pocketbook than their mothers life. People aren’t staying home to protect themselves, they’re staying home to protect you, even though you obviously don’t deserve it. So trump gave us just enough time to reduce the optics if dead bodies flung on trucks. Now that we have enough ventilates and coffins, who gives a hoot if 200,000 more die. Which family member are you sacrificing to the cause? Dad? Youngest son?
Staying home, if you can is the most logical thing to do. Those that can’t need to go back to work if they are not part of the most vulnerable populations (who may need some financial help if they are not already retired). The lockdowns did prevent the system from being overloaded but they should have ended by Memorial day.
Absolutely, clearly mark yourself as a dumbass sheep
Life always was and IS a gamble and those of us who aren’t sniveling cowards are fine with you avoiding us.
Do you go in the water at the beach? Do you drive a car? Do you fly in jet airliners? All three carry a substantially higher risk of death than coronavirus.
The charts actually show an increasing trend line over the last 5 weeks.
And to Alex, show me where car accidents, deaths at the beach, airline crashes produce over 100,000 deaths in less than 3 months.
In the US alone 1,300 people die each day from smoking, 102 die each day in car accidents. Why do will still allow people to smoke and drive? It is called freedom. Freedom to make choices and hopefully make smart ones.
Smoking and car accidents do not spread and increase exponentially. The freedom you have to throw a punch ends at my nose.
You are already avoiding everyone LOL and don’t worry, once you start the self righteous screeching, those of us with lives to live will avoid you!
The great thing is your welcome to stay home, lock your kids in their room, and shut your business.
Pleased don’t be surprised those of us looking at the data choose a different course.
I believe your family will be much worse off medically from locking down – and may already be based on the fear.
Godspeed and please make the best decision for your family and leave ours alone. Clearly you can put yourself in a situation where you never even get a cold virus. Most if us are willing to take that risk to live the life we choose to live.
Correct.
And it set a very dangerous precedent.
23x more Opoid OD deaths in LA than deaths from the Kung Flu. Where is the media outrage over that?
The Fake News & their sheeple destroyed in one month three years worth of economic progress. SAD!
They have a choice with the opioids but not the flu.
Not really Chris. For some people one pain pill is all it takes to change a life. If you have not lived it….please refrain from uneducated comments. If it was as easy as a choice do you think it would be a crisis?
agreed
reopenamericanbusiness dot com
People did not destroy three years of economic progress Covid19 did. Neither the fake news nor the sheeple made a decision to shut the US down, Governors and the President did. Do you think for half a second Trump would do that if he could safely stay open?
I guess the “fake news” staged the photos of overrun healthcare systems. Maybe the nurses are lying about working 16 hour days back to back (um nope I am an RN and a friend went to NYC, they are working that much, they have had shortages of PPE, and the hospitals are bursting at the seams in couple of areas in the city). The “fake news” baits him with blame and confrontational decisions ans statements he has made, rather than asking legit questions. But this is very real, and very serious.
I agree…when people say it’s political, think about it, yes it’s political suicide ..and wiping out all of our economic progress…but we will persevere and come out other side
Which LA do you mean?
louisiana, Opioid overdose deaths in 2018: 1140
louisiana, covid deaths so far in 2020: 4,851
Los Angeles County, opioid overdose deaths in 2017: 488
Los Angeles County, covid deaths so far in 2020: 5,663
Are you talking about a different LA?
Oh honey it is definitely not overblown. I would love to have our beaches and parks open more than anything however there are to many untrustworthy folks who think it is overblown to make it happen sooner than later. The ones who had to be made to stay home that wouldn’t, ruined it. It is what it is. I have lost 3 people who were working to help the rest if us. Them RIP the overblowers hope you find peace in rest. Get to know yourself again or for the 1st time. You may or may not like yourself! But please be smart and stay safe.
That is 50% of the picture. The initial lockdowns were a good idea. Masks and distancing still are. The other half of the picture is the deaths and financial ruin that flow from the lock downs
Where is the chart for pcr testing (not antibody testing.). The % positive of the total number tested. That is an important indicator that everyone is leaving out.
That is showing prevalence and community spread. If the %positive with increased testing is trending downward, the spike in number of cases is overblown and manipulative. If the % positive is rising with the total number than we need to intervene.
bob bear, you are correct. As far as the other response, 400 people are going to die in Florida from the new cases in the past week alone, that assumes a death rate less than 4% which is lower than previously. Was it worth opening so soon to have 400 more people die each week?
The death rate is nowhere near 4%
look at new covid hospitalizations (seven day moving average averages are best) The other numbers other than deaths are meaningless at this point.
Worth watching, but Florida is most likely just entering the uprise of the “Confirmed Cases” and “Deaths” curves over this weekend. According to the U of Washington predictive graphs Florida will be escalating over the next 2 weeks until peaking around April 23. Of course, all is subject to change, influenced by the Passover and Easter Weekend events, and any nonessential return to work over the rest of the month. My thoughts.
Dude, the U of Wash has been totally wrong since day 1!
I would like to see someone be honest and tell us that there is no possible way to predict with a model because models are built on previous factual data and we have no data on social distancing effects, increased washing hands, mask wearing even at 50%, hand sanitizer use, working from home, etc. etc. It has never been done before….
It’s refreshing to see comments from informed people like you Tom. Where is the science? Decisions should be made based on facts not guesses. Shutting down an entire country was a very bad decision.
Closing to late was mistake #1, and reopening to early is mistake #2, so expect infections and deaths to continue to climb!
I hate to burst your bubble but there has been a significant increase in the number of people being tested which will always show more people testing positive. Disproportionately, the number of Covid hospitalizations and deaths remain low.
Mistake #1 getting your quips from the marxist anti-trump main stream media.
TOO
Economic disaster and social isolation also kills people for a variety of reasons from untreated conditions to drug and alcohol abuse. I don’t here much of that from the press but it is a fact. If I still had my actuarial team I would likely already have done a projection of that (tentative projections as we don’t have enough data just like the people who over projected the results of the virus. Not a knock on them as they are in a pickle with not much data to go on.)
Agreed.
The lock-down will take its toll in lives , not just dollars.
1. Surgery postponed because hospitals have become Co-Vid centers
2. Cancer screenings post-poned because of fear of catching Co-Vid
3. Suicides related to isolation, fear of the uncertainty.
4. Suicides due to unemployment
Cell phone tracking does provide reliable information on social distancing.
the positive tests include antigen, so the positive tests could be from November. the 10 days after memorial are the highest number of tests we did per day. really have to go by deaths for “more” accurate data. I don’t know if hospitalizations include overnight admittance for a elective surgery of patients who happen to test positive for an antigen test, I wouldn’t put it passed them..
Great insight…. That explains a lot.
How do you know that the positive tests include antigen testing?
Interested to find out your source on that fact.
https://www.livescience.com/cdc-combined-covid-19-diagnostic-and-antibody-tests.html
The best data to look at to track the progress of the pandemic is the seven day moving average of new Covid hospital admissions. Number of cases will always be a gross overstatement as long as we are testing more and more people (these count not only actual new cases but also cases that are merely newly discovered cases that we did not previously know about. Not a political opinion…. I did this stuff for a living.
David,
I agree with you….I expect the number of cases by this time next year to top 60 million here in the states. Ten years ago, the swine flu hit and in one year 1 out of 6 Americans tested positive.
I would expect the same rate of cases for Covid.
Is it correct to see the new cases spike, while the hospitalization and mortality rates as compared to overall cases trend lower? Will the mortality rate trend down to 3-4 times that of a bad influenza breakout? Inquiring minds!
Being that the death rate remained somewhat relative even through lock down. This makes sense. Free antigen test are being given when donating blood. We are going next week. Feel like we might have had this in January.
I love how people continue to look at predictions rather than look at actual numbers and statistics. Here’s an update: ALL THE PRRDICTIONS HAVE BEEN WRONG!!
I agree Lee and more to the point everyone is forgetting this pesky little point and that is for every positive test hospitals and or doctors get $3300 in their pockets. Any time money is involved there is fraud and lies. My doctor friend told me not to bother with getting tested because he said there were a lot of false positives. So I say no more stages open up the country. Stay home if you want . Wear a mask if you want but, stop the bullshit. Nothing they have done (and buy the way we pay all these peoples salaries that have NOT missed a pay check while the rest of us sit at home) makes sense. Ask yourself what is the difference between shopping at say Walmart or a small boutique? Absolutely nothing in fact you would be safer in my opinion shopping at a smaller store. While big companies stay open smaller ones are now ruined. Open up the freaking country you bunch of losers. This should have never happened. I personally am tired of the lies and if you are watching CNN or any other company affiliated with them you are getting NOTHING but lies. For goodness sakes people fact check. The man that owns CNN owns 70% of the news outlets. Not good. Anyways I wish health and happiness to all and let’s make America Great Once Again…
CNN is owned by Time Warner, not a person. You must be thinking of Fox who is mostly owned by Robert Murdock and his family. The Murdocks are the media moguls.
“PRRDICTIONS ” (sic) are based on computer models. Models are designed NOT to predict the future and give you “exact” numbers, but to give you a feel for the sensitivities to the INPUT variables. For example, if you let the virus rage what will be the death toll, versus what the death toll will be if you have the population use face mask and social distancing. Does the death rate drop? Is it STATICALLY significant?
As the old saying goes… “You can’t fix stupid.” and per John Wayne, “IF you are going to be stupid you had better be tough.”
nice. A color-coded map of the cases by county would be good too!
Color coded mapping is where the mass hypnosis all started. John Hopkins University started with these ridiculous bubble maps that make everything look like it is exploding. A proper statistician would never use a device like this that causes the observer to have a false sense of what is happening. The idea of a map or graph is to allow the observer to enhance an understanding of the statistics. Well what do you expect from the JOHN HOPKINS BLOOMBERG SCHOOL OF PUBLIC HEALTH. Must get a pretty penny for coming up with this disinformation. They have used the media and the global health agencies to create the confusion and fear that is needed for mass hysteria and hypnosis. Propaganda is and always has been more powerful than truth. Today’s propaganda is far superior than any ever seen In the history of Earth. It is very dangerous and the sociopaths that are controlling it are even more dangerous. I suspect that the average person on earth can be spun with lies very very easily. I don’t see any way out. Sad world we now live in.
Hmmm, interested in what you say, John. Agree that there is too much doomsday stuff going around! Is there a more accurate and honest graph or diagram that conveys what’s happening in a more truthful light, better than the John Hopkins depictions? THANKS.
The disturbing part of these trends is that the models all predicted deaths would rise quickly until about April 20, then steadily drop off until they hot ZERO this week. Don’t focus on the cases – it’s the hospitalizations and deaths that were supposed to be at zero by now – NOONE thought they’d be rising again. This is very bad news. Many deniers asked is to follow sweden’s approach when their deaths numbers were low, now they have had 10 times as many per capital covid deaths as their bordering countries. The hysteria on this issue is from anti-mask people who believe this pandemic will somehow be different from the other pandemics throughout history.
Yes Denmark and Norway may now have much lower death rates, but that only means they have postponed – not eliminated – the inevitable. Sweden’s death rate is on par with France, UK, Belgium, Italy, Spain and other European countries that did lock down. The model predictions were all nonsense as local circumstances vastly impact the ultimate death rate. Sweden has been through the worst while actually saving the most vulnerable from an even higher death rate and not destroying their economy. They did have a quick risk and fall of Covid. Both their death rate and new cases are now way down. Yes, wearing a mask helps in the right circumstances and should be encouraged. But its fantasy to think it will eliminate the virus.
Jim, even if it were true that you couldn’t get cases down to zero, postponing the outbreak of the virus is still a good thing, because it gives us more time for improved treatments to be discovered, tested and rolled out.
Jim, just because you say it doesn’t make it true.
USA, UK and Sweden currently have 1.2-1.9 daily fatalities per 1m of population, while the stricter countries (Belgium, France, Germany etc.) are all below 0.3 daily fatalities per 1m (source: ourworldindata.com).
The case of rising deaths with rising cases would be expected with any virus. The question is the % of cases to death, which is in decline. It’s not a case of denial when it comes to just reading the data. Are people dying, yes… but when you factor the numbers for Florida it is still 1 in 25,000 will die. it then becomes a question that driving to the grocery store is more dangerous than catching Corona while shopping at the store. So, base point argument to the overall reaction is that we should ban driving because it’s more dangerous but yet we don’t… why??
Mike states that it is more dangerous to drive to the grocery store. Let’s look at the numbers, as they are not political. In 2018, approximately 3,000 Floridians died in car crashes. That is less than 10 fatalities per day. Yesterday 136 people died from Covid. That is 13 times more than traffic fatalities. Put another way, the Boeing 737 carries about 200 people. So we are experiencing the equivalent of a major airline crash every two days. Now let’s get political. If Florida had planes dropping out of the sky every two days, would our leaders be saying, “Don’t worry, keep flying, everything is under control?” Why is this different?
That is not the point. The argument that this is not a big problem because there are other causes of death (accidents, viruses, cancer, etc.) that kill more people than Covid is irrelevant to the decision-making process of how to deal with it. Why? Because all those other causes of death area already factored into our society system: number of hospital beds, medicines available, insurance costs, among many others. A new factor of disability/hospitalization/death for such a considerable number of people like Covid-19 is doing, causes terrible effects at many levels of the society. There is, therefore, wisdom in doing everything we can as a people to slow it down as much as possible, even if that means doing things that are not normal, like social distancing and wearing masks.
I am not sure where some of the stat are coming from but John Hopkins has the US currently at 3.6 deaths per 100k. This is better than most EU countries and is actually on the low side for the industrialized nations.
I never heard anyone say deaths and hospitalizations would drive to 0 in April.
I think the Sweden people would have been better off if the virus antibodies were effective long term. Unfortunately, it is now believed that they last 2 to 3 months.
It doesn’t matter if you use graphs or bubble graphs, or color coded maps. The numbers, the daily numbers and the cumulative numbers is all you need to know. This isn’t complicated. There is no “mass hypnosis” happening. And regarding masks, what you learn in middle school about how “germs” get passed between people is pretty easy to understand: doctors and nurses use masks around contagious people so as not to spread the disease to others. Doctors and nurses have ALWAYS used masks in surgery and dentistry for the very same reason. If masks didn’t work, doctors wouldn’t be wearing them. Ive heard ridiculous stories of people now saying wearing mask can cause COVID or it creates breathing problems. This absurd stuff about how wearing masks show that you’re controlled by the state. It’s as if people like that just woke up in this world. I never heard this kind of hysteria around seatbelt, helmet wearing and drunk driving laws. If people can’t grasp simply biology and understand that face masks in public help a virulent, airborne disease from spreading, it shows their ignorance. And I feel sorry for them and their families. And it’s a disgrace to our education system, quite frankly. The rest of the world stopped laughing. They’re now just pitying us our ignorance.
how does it work burying your head in the sand? All is just dandy there? Well, tell that to all the people who have lost loved ones and still losing. Just wear a mask, and keep your distance, so we all can get back to normal living and perhaps recover our economy sooner. I know the President likes spread the idea that those things are political ideas, and they are…his political divisive ideas. Just do the right thing for the economy…wear a mask…keep your distance…wash your hands well and frequently…and keep your hands away from your face inbetween.
I cannot imagine having to hear that my parent died from COVID and I couldn’t be with them. Its a horrible thing. But my one question, regardless of who the president or governor is, how many people die everyday in FL in these age groups at any other time? I’ve been sitting in my house for months being respectful of others, but I need food, supplies, my son needs to go to school. And yet if my 90 year old uncle dies – and he did, and he has COPD and cancer and has COVID but not the symptoms, then he is a COVID death. I had 3 elderly family members pass during this time, all over 90. We are heartbroken because we can’t have a funeral, but the question is do you now expect that everyone stays inside forever because 3 people who enjoyed long lives died and had COVID. Only one did, but my question is, if 3 people normally die during June who are over 90, and one dies WITH COVID, do we now keep a single working mom at home because her job is non essential. How does she provide for her family? When does unemployment end and people begin to have real problems? So in the end, I’m on the fence. I don’t agree with who cares that people die. All of my daughters college friends went back to schools to live in their apartments and party because they were tired of hanging out with their parents who said you can’t go out. It’s not an easy problem to fix because some people don’t care, but its not the working class of America. We would like to see the virus contained, treated, vaccines and don’t care who gets credit for it.
Lyn, let me help you with that, based on death certificate data, you can actually find out the exact number of deaths for various causes by week each year. In 2019, Florida had exactly 0 weeks of more than 4,000 deaths due to natural causes. ZERO. Every week in 2019, deaths averaged 3,650/week throughout the entire year. In 2020, Florida is on track to have at least 10 weeks with more than 4,000 deaths since April already. In April/May 2019 roughly 29,950 people died, in 2020, for the same 8 week period, ~32,550 died. People die too consistently for this to be an anomaly. This is all before the massive breakout recently where reported deaths are increasing, the death certificate data is still being tallied for June and July.
More people are dying, it is undeniable when you look at the numbers. The sad reality is, more people are dying, and the choice is literally economy or lives. This is a period in time in which the government is supposed to be able to protect lives and keep the economy afloat by helping the people. That is one of the biggest points to a governemtn, to help the people during a crisis.
Absent a cure or vaccine, the virus will eat until it starves…. We can flatten and extend the curve or peak and shorten the curve…. Take vitamin D, statins, and whatever and be smart about wearing a mask and stay out of crowded places.
Worldometers is a great source.
THERE IS NO HONEST GRAPH! THIS FAKE SHIT HASD GONE LONG ENOUGH! I HAVE NOT MET ONE PERSON WITH COVID, NOR AS I WENT AND FILMED MANY HOSPITALS, SEEN ANY OVER WHELMING OF HOSPITALS! WHAT A COMPLETE JOKE! CANCER, HEART DISEASE, AND MANY OTHER TAKE THE FRONT LINE IN DEATHS BEFORE THIN BS! GET A GRIP DUMB-*SS! LEARN WHAT THE REAL TRUTH IS! THEY ARE COMING FOR SMALL BUSINESSES, THEY ARE GOING TO SPIKE ALL TAXES, PUT YOU IN A SHOE BOX, AND TRACK YOUR EVERY MOVE!@ PAY FOR ILLEGALS ON YOUR DIME!!
What the hell are you talking about? 120k deaths already and over 2 million cases, exactly 4 months after Trump said we had 15 cases that would be going to to 0 within a few days and how great of a job he was doing. THAT is the source of disinformation.
Get Trump out of your pea brain. If Biden had been in, it would have been MUCH worse. What, exactly should Trump have done that he didn’t do?
Stop the flights from Europe.
He should have shown some leadership. Listen to his science team – they’ve actually been preparing for this for years. He should have encouraged wearing masks and other physical distancing. He should have acted sooner instead of minimizing the disease in Feb…
“the heat, generally speaking, kills this kind of virus. So that would be a good thing.”
“But we’re in great shape in our country,” he added. “We have 11, and the 11 are getting better.”
I wish we could get Trump out. His desperate desire to force an economic restart, just because he’s banking his reelection on a strong economy, is backfiring. It is quite clear, despite his innumeracy, that his desire to “restart” the economy too soon (with his disciple, deSantis, in tow) is costing real lives. The number of hospitalizations across Florida are going up because deSantis because of the reopening. Anyone who says we are having more cases because of more testing is the real “pea brain” here. And don’t start throwing puerile comparisons with what Biden would have done. That is an exercise in mere hypotheticals – Biden is not yet in office. Trump should play less golf, stop pandering to Putin, stop blaming everyone else for his stupidity and start spend more time attending to his responsibilities in this country and showing some leadership. His handling of the pandemic will go down in history as a catastrophe.
Based on what you said it makes sense your name is GONZO !!! Trump to this day, despite the science, (but i am guessing you dont care about science…its too real) still will not tell people they should wear masks !!!The man (Donny Bone Spur) is a draft dodging coward who hides behind his Tweets !!
Turned the process over to the professionals. That is what happened in Europe and they are doing a much better job holding the line.
Do you have a Biden Crystal ball? Or just a stable genius?
To all those hammering ‘Trump’, you clearly need to go back to elementary school and learn how our republic works. Trump did take advice of his experts and scientists. They even had said as much. The Feds gave out guidance and guidelines. STATES, individually, then took action, each charting their own course AS THEY SHOULD in a 50-state nation. Short of declaring martial law and usurping local powers, ‘The President’, Trump or Obama, could not just send out edicts — much as some would clear want (but clearly only when it’s “their” President). STATES are deciding when to relax their guidelines (some) or mandates (others, where Governors declared emergency, issue exec orders — again, as they are empowered to do). Get the Trump-hate out of your heat and mind and THINK. NY isn’t ‘Trump’s fault’, any more or less than Florida or Massachusetts. Reading some of the discourse, an obvious question should be what, pray tell, type of government do you wish for? Centralized power of Feds? Why even both have governors, mayors, etc. if Uncle Sugar is going to make all your decisions for you. And State officials blaming Trump for what THEY did or didn’t do?? — Just step down from power, now. Clearly you can’t handle the responsibility and the results from your OWN decisions. The guidance has been there to follow — or NOT — what each State has done or not done, that’s on the STATE and LOCAL authorities to own. These were THEIR decisions to make. Meanwhile, keep stoking the centralized big government fires. Blame the President for local authorities actions/inactions. Clearly we don’t educate people on how our own government is meant to work. Is THIS President issued exec orders, declared martial law, etc., these same blamers would be coming out of the woodwork to scream about it. Do you need to be reminded what happened the INSTANT Trump announced curtailing flights from China? Labels galore… motivated by racism/xenophobia, not safety. Give it a break. Meanwhile Pelosi was parading herself on San Fran TV encouraging people to get out and enjoy the city – because the narrative was “Trump shutting down China flights = racism = Chinatown business are suffering from stigma”. A month later, mayor of NY is encouraging people to get out and see a how, ride the subways. What a JOKE. What a bigger joke that people parrot this crap and get suckered into it.
1.Upon receiving the intelligence briefing that China was lying about the severity of the outbreak Trump should have dispatched CDC teams to the international gateway airports to start screening passengers.
2. Trump should have immediately accepted the WHO COVID-19 diagnostic tests when the CDC screwed up.
3. If foreign travelers entering the airports were testing positive he should have shut down travel from those countries. Europe sent us the strain that killed most Americans not China.
4. Trump should have immediately halted exports of PPE. He should have immediately invoked the National Defense Act to produce PPE and ventilators rather than dithering for months.
5. Trump should have turned messaging over to the NIH and followed their guidance.
6. Most importantly Trump should not have reached the conclusion that America would forgive him a body count but not a lower Dow Jones Industrial Average. Everything that has befallen us began when Trump put his re-election ahead of the country. Trump’s conclusions were wrong. The American electorate would have rewarded him for handling the health crisis professionally and forgiven him the economic price as America does when we fight a war. The country is more mature than Trump imagined. Urging the swift reopening of the American economy has set the US back many months in returning to normal. Trump’s private business record of reckless gambling formerly with other people’s money is now happening again this time gambling with other people’s lives.
As far as Joe Biden. He’s served in government for 40 years. HIV, SARS, Ebola, MERS he has seen it all. This virus is not as novel for him. Biden would have had the good sense and humility to take a back seat to the medical professionals just like Obama and he did during their administration.
There were never daily White House propaganda briefings during SARS. The medical professionals were allowed to do their job unfettered by the politicians.
Stop flights from Europe. Mandated domestic manufacture of PPE. Mandated PPE use by all essential workers (factories, transportation staff, food supply and service staff, healthcare and health service staff). Enforce CDC and public health recommendations with force of federal law. Eliminate political interference at CDC and other public health agencies. Federally mandate State opening schedules in accordance with CDC guidelines. Allow reopening ONLY when CDC guidelines for doing so have been met. Lead by example… not pontificate on twitter…
Easy to say “whatabout” Biden? But who is the president? Let’s see, we were warned by Navarro early in 2020. Trump called it a HOAX. Then he ignored the science saying it would go away in no time. A toothless travel ban as people still entered. Never mentioned (probably didn’t read it) the Executive Order for a National Response to a Pandemic outlining strategies-signed in 2012. On the weekend of March 7 he was so concerned that he played golf after partying at Mar A Lago! Then he touted hydroxychloroquine and ordered the US to buy 63 mm doses-monummental waste of taxpayer money. Of course the injection of disinfectant and putting a UV light in your lungs was another brainstorm… in between boasting of his success and blaming everyone else! Tweeting “Liberate” states to charge up his base; no unified modeling on maskwearing. Bloviating fool. No leadership, no plan, no strategy, no empathy. How’s that working out with 40 mm unemployed; 27tn national debt; $832 bn trade deficit; 23 mm w/o health insurance? When the king wears the crown, then the king takes the blame–Louis XVI got beheaded for his folly.
Love how gonzo didn’t come back here to comment on this
Where do I start Gonzo? Firstly he should have been brave and decisive in shutting down the country back in March/April. Second, made it clear in his daily ‘shows’ at the Whitehouse that testing and contact tracing are paramount and made sure each State had the supplies they needed back in April. Thirdly he needed to take advice from science, not wasted time and money on his dead beat theories about hychloroquine, now stockpiled and useless. Fourth, he could have worn a mask to show what a true leader does when there’s a highly contagious virus running rampant. Fifthly, he needed to take charge of this situation, be a leader, not a blamer in chief. I could go on and on, but bottom line is he ran away when we needed him most, he’s now left each state to clear up this mess. Left the country to fend for itself. He’s a disgrace and needs to go now.
What he should have done, and still can do to save lives is: take a long walk off of a short pier. OR, visit Dr. Kavorkian’s clinic. We would all be better off: even the tRump cultists and zombies that parrot his vile sociopathic lies.
So how do you explain how all those socialist countries in the EU, 440,000,000 people, have new cases of about 4k a day and we are at 60,000? I frequently hear from trumpers that Biden or Clinton wouldn’t do any better. Really? Only those who wallow in trumps constant lies could come up with that theory. President Bush developed a pandemic response listed on the CDC website. It tells the government how to deal with a pandemic. Did trump use it? Nope. Obama had gone through Ebola and SARS and revised the playbook, also on the CDC website with even greater detail. Did trump use that? Nope. Like most things trump he just wings it. Now you’ll probably say he stopped the flights from China and he did which was helpful. But instead of using that time to build supplies and prepare the nation trump played golf. HE PLAYED GOLF! I bet earlier you were one of the people who said what a shitty job Obama did with SARS and his 12,000 deaths. But once our deaths crossed that line all the trumper dropped that argument. I’m sorry to break it to you but trump is an idiot, a dope, a moron and his FAILURE to lead has lead us to this. It’s only going to get much worse.
Wow, talk about fake news, this below:
USA, UK and Sweden currently have 1.2-1.9 daily fatalities per 1m of population, while the stricter countries (Belgium, France, Germany etc.) are all below 0.3 daily fatalities per 1m (source: ourworldindata.com).
Is this just a recent snapshot in time to help fit the narrative? The facts are these, and only Germany has less total deaths per million out of this grouping:
US – 414/million
Belgium – 844/million
France – 460/million
Germany – 109/million
Sweden – 547/million
Trump should:
1. Listen to his medical and scientific advisors
2. Have led a coordinated, prioritized nationwide response
3. Supported and led every state Governor to prioritize ALL of the protective
measures, immediately and all this time
4. Led our nation’s people—ALL of us, not just the minority who believe he
is terrific—by immediately in February, and every day since then,
encouraging ALL Americans to understand the immensely dangerous,
highly contagious, easily fatal reality of this virus and adopt ALL the
recommended protective measures
5. Worn and still be wearing a face mask himself, and practicing social dis-
stancing in ALL his appearances, press conferences and political rallies
6. Not assigned the temporary recalibration of urgently needed industries to
HELP AMERICA, and ESPECIALLY ALL of our first responders, medical
providers (who are risking their lived EVERY day to save the lives and
families of selfish, ignorant morons who refuse to protect themselves,
everyone they know, our medical workers, and America itself from this
deadly virus) to his corrupt, mediocre NOT elected son-in-law (who
immediately failed in the task
7. STOPPED making division and enmity his total political and leadership
strategy: ALL OTHER disaster time Presidents help EVERYONE in
America, and collaborate with their political counter-parts in Congress
during national catastrophes. Not Trump: he prefers self-serving hate.
AMONG NUMEROUS OTHER SANE, CARING, COMPETENT THINGS TRUMP SHOULD HAVE DONE AND STILL BE DOING in his role as our President in response to the unimaginable disaster that IS Covid-19.
Max, you say the President is simply respecting States’ rights. This from the President who has sent Federal Marshals into Portland to arrest peaceful protesters – against the express wishes of the Mayor and Governor; re-allocated military funding for bases in Kentucky and other states to build his wall against the wishes of Governors and both the House and Senate (illegally as it turns out); who texted Liberate Michigan and spurred armed protests when that state’s governor took actions against the virus that he didn’t like. Yet this President could even get organized to buy medical equipment, leaving states to bid against each other driving prices through the roof, and allowing companies to ship supplies to China.
There is no state’s rights principles here, just a completely random response to a problem that the President doesn’t have the mental will or ability to handle.
When it comes to COVID19 and leadership? Almost every world leader has been more accountable and transparent that the US executive. And? The numbers show that these other countries are doing better than the US. For example? Had he been in charge in January 2020? Joe Biden might have relied on the same experts that stopped Ebola from spreading in the US when he and Pres. Obama were in charge. There was no community spread in the US of Ebola back then. Why? Because the executive branch acted on the science – not their “instincts” or “very big brains”.
Lloyd, 75 million people died last year…that’s 205K a day…that means all the covid deaths in all the countries combined for the past 6 months amounts to 2.5 days worth of deaths. Ask yourself why most media never puts this new source of deaths in it’s proper perspective? {fyi: Fear brings viewers back} Thank you to this website for FINALLY showing a timeline graph of deaths in FL showing the consistent daily decline in deaths since we allowed people to earn a living.
75 million people died last year??? Thats 25% of our population. In 4 years we’ll all be dead
Proper perspective?
In 2018 the deaths for both Influenza and Pneumonia together added up to 55,000 for the nation. We are at over 120,000 Covid19 deaths and we still have half a year to go. How is that for “proper perspective”?
The timeline graph shows infections and hospitalizations and deaths are up since Florida began reopening. Are we looking at different graphs on this page?
Thanks Joe you nailed
Trump, blah blah blah. Trump is the one who actually acted quicker than anyone else would have while liberal tools were calling him a xenophobe. Let’s review everything Pelosi, Schumer and the libs said that was wrong like ‘head on down to China town etc.’ Your selective hearing is evident. I look at action and you don’t have anything on your side but mask shaming and a dichotomy over coverage. Orange Man bad always. Protests/Riots good. Rally bad.
Nice stats, if they were consistent, and the same as other diseases – they are not. It is bad, and will continue to be so, but the number of positive tested should be using metrics like “has symptoms” that other countries use, plus two tests. Asymptomatic ( no symptoms) is ½+ of all reported positives. In other counties not a “case” like in USA. Deaths with multiple issues here are just COVID deaths, not in other countries.
Lloyd, stop smoking whatever it is you are smoking. The libtards predicted 1 to 2 MILLION DEAD! All to spin up minions like you. And you prove it worked!
I lived through Hong Kong flu in 1968/69. More people were killed per capita from that. We had 200 million people then with 100,000 American deaths so compared to today’s 320 million people that is more deaths per capita than with Covid. Children also died from Hong Kong yet in Fl not a single child under 18 has died from this one. However from Oct 2019 to March 2020 10 children HAVE died from influenza in Fl right off the state health dept numbers. Also 2 high school seniors have died from lightening strikes. So in Fl children have a 200% larger chance of being killed by lightening than Covid! So now we shut down outside school playgrounds?? Also in Fl teens have a 30,000% higher Hanse if dying in a car accident based upon the numbers of those killed directly off the state website so we ban cars?? btw this virus started exactly where this virus started in China. Same city! FACT: The more people a day get this the closer to herd immunity which is the only fix outside effective immunization!
The biggest problem with counting on “herd immunity” is that no one knows if having COVID-19 guarantees anyone immunity for life. In some tests, the “immunity” (i.e., antibodies) disappears in just a few months, meaning the person can be reinfected. I’m not sure herd immunity is a solution we can count on.
Chill Lloyd, The President is going to do what needs to be done to HELP ALL Americans. Do you honestly think that a democrat currently available would do better? Yeah Right. sad.
So sad that facts in your face are not enough to alter your ignorant views. I picture you facing a corner with a tin foil dunce cap firmly seated on your head.
Isn’t it interesting that this very detailed story doesn’t mention the age of the victims, nor does it mention co-morbidities. I wonder why?
Every case and death is listed individually on the website below. The vast majority of the new cases are young less than 35. The vast majority of deaths are in the older population. This is probably why we haven’t seen a spike in new hospitalizations so far.
http://ww11.doh.state.fl.us/comm/_partners/action/report_archive/state/state_reports_latest.pdf
Patrice tried to go to that site and it is a bad link now. Do you have any other link for that data? I was bummed that the link did not work now. 🙁
Name calling and no facts on your end. Nice job, Ann. Go away.
Also, as it has been pointed out antigen test are now included in the positive results we are getting now. So this might only seem like a spike as the death average has remained within a 10 point average even through lock down. They are giving antigen test for free with blood donations. We are getting our antigen test done this week just to know. We had a bug in January so…that being said many are getting antigen tests now and it is going to create a spike in the positive results.I think significantly unfortunately, people won’t understand what it means.
Landy,
the blood donation test only valid if you had it within 60 days.
but yes the antibody test they add you today as if you are infected today because they don’t know when you had it. ALSO ppl are not taken off as cured so they make it like there are 50X times that have it but the numbers are really much lower in real time.
deaths are overreported.
increase in cases are because we are actively testing now more then before.
WHAT THEY SHOULD HAVE DONE is health dept told everyone to keep their vitamin D levels up to normal. BEST advice given.
According to FLDOH, antibody results are reported separately and are reported once a week.. They are not part of the nearly 10k cases reported today.
Antibody serology tests are intended for use by epidemiologists doing statistical studies of how the virus travels through large populations. They are fundamentally useless as a measure of actual infection of individuals. They are highly inaccurate with both positive and negative errors. If you’re paying for an antigen test, save your money. If you’re worried about being infected. Get a standard test.
I assume you mean “mass hysteria”? Actually the zip code map is pretty useful for seeing where the cases are. Glades had a huge outbreak; not exactly party central.
They add the positive tests for antigens…. and they add multiple confirmation tests where as many as three are required. The stats are manufactured. That said it was stupid to open bars…..
wow
that comment is truly amazing.
in an attempt to be civil, i erased my original post.
i’ll now try again
1: the virus didn’t start in the US
2: the response to the virus didn’t start in the US
3:quarantines, lockdowns and mask wearing was , and is undeniably the best way to contain the virus
all this is fact before you even had an opinion on this matter
obviously ,the global response to covid 19 is not a left wing, liberal american
plot to control the narrative. the only hand the US had in this pandemic was to greatly increase the spread of the virus.
My point is
how can any ressonable person believe that all of the hospital, universities, health officials and media, in the world be wrong, and biased,in favor of the left wing in the united states??
think about that please don’t confuse facts and documentation with political bias
We have had Flu vaccines for many years. How many die from the flu every year?
New York and Florida have comparable population numbers. NY locked down right away, and still hasn’t opened up. Let’s compare the numbers:
NY:
Population: 19.5 mil
Confirmed
398K
Deaths
31,776
Deaths per million: 165
Florida:
Population: 21.5 mil
Confirmed
152K
Deaths
3,504
Deaths per million: 16
They may have comparable populations but you can’t equally compare the environments. Have you ever been to NYC? The density and the high subway usage is incomparable to any other city in the U.S. Also, most European flights went through NYC airports so the virus was spreading long before lockdown. So, you are missing a wealth of information if you simply compare population numbers. Community spread is going to take longer in Florida than in NYC.
I agree. Good on you for being civil. It is really hard to read some of these comments.
Thank God there are still some people with common sense, including you. Quarantines and lockdowns at the beginning saved countless lives. This bought the medical and scientific community time to get some effective treatments figured out, acquire proper PPE, and do the other things that needed to be done to increase capacity at medical facilities. It also gave manufacturers time to produce masks for the general populace. Countless more lives could have been saved if a greater percentage of the population observed proper social distancing, indoors and outdoors AND wore masks. This is not political, just reading and understanding the science behind how the Covid-19 spreads.
Hi John,
Showing data by county gives us a more accurate account of where the virus is most active.
The bar graphs referenced in this article do not show that information.
Certainly, we could show data by county bar graphs.
Dan H.
Bethesda, MD
That was an admirably restrained and intelligent response Dan. Pretty sure such a response is lost on John.
The majority of these posts proves on thing. The United States are no longer the United States. Making a new virus that’s killed 500,000 people a political messaging tool is incomprehensible. There are the Obama haters & never trumpers. The hate from both directions on top of ignorance is what’s going to kill us, not COVID 19. The US has 4% of World Population & 25% of deaths. The US spends 5 times any nation of health care. What’s wrong in the picture? Too many with hate in their hearts & sand in their ears.
revelations says “for by thy sorceries were all nations deceived”…. in greek and hebrew sorceries is pharmakia the root word for pharmacy… I fear a spell has been cast on the earth and we have fallen for it, because we know not the truth. It is sad, but there is hope in Jesus, if you have belief in your heart that he is who he says he is and you confess with your mouth that he is Lord. peace
You nailed it John
John,
You are sadly misinformed probably to comport with your radical trumpain views. Johns Hopkins is a bastion of science and research. Don’t blame the messenger because you don’t like it’s well-informed statistics.
Well said Patsy. Some people, for obvious political reasons, just don’t trust legitimate, factual statistics.
You know who doesn’t care about Trump or Biden?
– A? virus.
Completely agree!
Very intelligent!
Hahahaha. I like your sarcasm Maggie.
Agreed!
Can you explain how color coding amounts to “propaganda” or “disinformation” without sounding like a raving lunatic? No? Didn’t think so.
you could selectively display a very small section of data to misrepresent it. but here we don’t have that problem, if you can’t see that hospitalizations are going up directly with our amount of cases then you’d only be in denial if you disagreed this was a bad situation
Why jump on the bandwagon of politicizing a stupid disease? Stop paying taxes if you really mean it, you obsiously think this country is a big joke and no one deserve to be here except a few nutjobs who want everyone to bow to them. If this country is nothing but a joke to you, and health care professionals and all our institutions are a waste of your time, all the Trumpers time, why are you still here in America? Where are your contributions to our country other than your racist, ignorant bullst? People are dying, getting sick, we can deal with it, but not like this. If you think it’s all a joke and you just don’t care… what do you really get out of it, anyways? All you Trumpers? He hates all of us, you give him nothing but a means to rake this country over the coals and divide it up to his buddies – which include some bad dictators. This country used to be great. Thanks to Trump Nation, it’s a fkn joke with a bunch of racists and bigots thinking they are going to be the next Nazi superpowers. Good luck with Covid, you may not believe in science/ Darwin, but Darwinism believes in you. Bye in Nov 2020
Well said, Bryan.
Off your meds again?
Good one, Gregory. 🙂
I truly believ e what you are saying John! This BULLSHIT has to stop! I. don’t understand how just 8 days ago the death rate had Gone down Significantly with the spiking of positive test! & now NO One can give me. Answer when I asked why the death rate still. Stay down! No one!
Being able to analyze data from a chart is a skill that few people have.
MD’s can read these charts and learn a lot from them.
Apparently John can’t understand them and he assumes everyone else is the same.
…………….NOT !!
You need to crawl back under your rock and pit tour tin foil hat back on. You are putting your neighbors in danger. Stop the dissemination of conspiracie and propaganda.
You are on point sir. I am putting together a group for a class action against the perpetrators of this treasonous act.
There is nothing wrong with color coded maps IF, they show the right info. Anything to do with total number of cases or even total number of new cases for a county is almost useless. Everything should be in cases, hospitalizations, deaths per capita. It’s the only way you can compare anything with any remote sense of reality.
Well Said!
John, if you were trying to communicate information to people with a high school education, do you have a better way of displaying it? Would you err on the side of caution, or minimizing the fact that we’ve over 140,000 Americans have died from Covid-19? How is Fox News displaying it? How is Sean Hannity helping his viewers see the Johns Hopkin’s propaganda? There is certainly a “very dangerous sociopath” spreading “propaganda is far superior than any ever seen In the history of Earth”, but he isn’t a Democrat… Have you been to the gym and then a bar without a mask lately?
John: If you had the vaguest idea of what you’re talking about, you would know there is no such place as “John Hopkins University”.
That must be the reason that you include no facts whatsoever in your post, just adjectives.
That’s what’s called propaganda.
I’m not sure what you mean by ” Well what do you expect from the JOHN HOPKINS BLOOMBERG SCHOOL OF PUBLIC HEALTH.” Is that thinly-veiled anti-semitism? Johns Hopkins actually has a stellar reputation. Data is not propaganda.
Do you cause problems often? Or do you just want to excite fear in people?
If you go to the Weather Underground website and go to the map. there’s a button on the left just above the + & – that looks like the coronavirus clock on the and you will see the map changes and shows county by county..
David can you give me a link to that map? I don’t see it on https://www.wunderground.com/. thanks.
The Covid Jury is still out and it does not appear there will be a coviction. Interesting that I was notified via Scott Adams retweet of Justin Hart’s twitter post yesterday
“Here. I made this REALLY simple. The increase in cases you see across the country is NOT something to freak out about. In Florida, the average age of confirmed cases has dropped by nearly 20 years! This means #COVID19 has to work 5x harder to kill the folks currently infected.”
I agree with John’s criticism of my post 2 1/2 months ago and with Ellen’s. I don’t agree with Lloyd or Ann
I agree with landy & Doug Moore.
I have no opinion on James Rapp or David but 2 & 1/2 months after my initial post I would say ‘Experts [medical] are useless in a crisis’
NY politicians are right for NY, FL are right for me. I live in a reasonable state but in an unreasonable community – but that’s been my choice.
These charts don’t follow the numbers in the FL Covid dashboard which shows a significant drop in fatalities. Where are these numbers coming from?
How are we supposed to believe the numbers when motorcycle accident and gun shot wounds to the head show up as a covid death?