With Election Day approaching, early voting data from Leon County show Democrats holding a substantial advantage (approximately 5,000 votes) over Republicans in ballots cast before Election Day, while voters with no party affiliation (NPA) have increased their participation significantly compared with 2022.
Early voting Republicans are on the same pace as 2022, however Democrats are surpassing their 2022 early vote numbers. Is this advantage the result of 2022 election day Democrat voters casting ballots early or is this the sign of a more engaged Democrat electorate?
The Latest Numbers
According to the latest figures, 44,353 Democrats have voted by mail or in person during early voting, compared with 20,767 Republicans and 11,944 NPA voters.
Democrats account for 56.4% of the 78,680 ballots cast before Election Day, compared with 26.4% for Republicans and 15.2% for NPA voters.
The Democratic advantage over Republicans currently stands at 23,586 ballots, compared with 18,481 at the same stage of the 2022 election data.
The most significant change involves in-person early voting. Democrats have cast 28,333 early ballots, an 83.6% increase over 2022. Republicans have cast 14,197 early ballots, a 19.4% increase, while NPA voters have cast 8,255, more than double their 2022 total of 3,939.
Vote-by-mail participation has declined substantially across all three groups. Democratic mail ballots declined 35%, Republican mail ballots declined 32.5%, and NPA mail ballots declined 29.1%.
Despite these declines, Democrats have increased their combined pre-Election Day ballot total by 10.6% compared with 2022. Republican participation has declined 3.9%, while NPA participation has increased 30.7%.
The changing composition of early voters comes as Tallahassee residents prepare to decide several closely watched local contests, including races for mayor and City Commission.
However, the figures represent countywide participation rather than voters residing specifically within Tallahassee city limits. They also reflect party registration, not candidate preference. Registered Republicans, Democrats and NPA voters may support candidates regardless of party affiliation in nonpartisan municipal elections.
EARLY VOTING DATA, 2022 & 2026
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