New FL Gubernatorial Poll: Donalds Up by 6 vs. Jolly, 7 Over Demings

By Mitch Perry, The Florida Phoenix

A new survey of the Florida gubernatorial and U.S. Senate races slated for this fall shows Republicans Byron Donalds and Ashley Moody with single-digit leads over their top potential Democratic opponents.

The University of North Florida Public Opinion Research Lab (PORL) of 786 likely Florida midterm voters shows Donalds, a U.S. representative from Naples who has been endorsed for governor by Donald Trump, leading former Republican U.S. Rep. David Jolly (turned Democrat) by six points, 42%-36%, in a prospective two-man race. Donalds leads Orange County Mayor Jerry Demings in a proposed matchup by seven points, 43%-36%.

The survey shows Republican incumbent GOP U.S. Sen. Ashley Moody with similar leads over two prospective Democratic opponents in her bid for election this November. Moody leads former National Security Council aide Alexander Vindman by 7 points, 45%-38%. She leads Jacksonville state Rep. Angie Nixon by 8 points, 46%-38%.

“At least at this stage in these races, voter choice is much more about partisanship than candidate identity,” said Dr. Sean Freeder, PORL director and professor of political science. “Republicans still enjoy a clear advantage with Florida voters, but it doesn’t yet appear as strong as in previous years, perhaps unsurprising given that the party of the president usually struggles more in midterm elections.”

The poll shows that President Trump is slightly underwater in his adopted home state, with 45% viewing him favorably and 48% unfavorably. Among independent voters, Trump is extremely unpopular: 57% view him unfavorably, with 31% favorable.

Regarding immigration, the Florida electorate is split: 49% of respondents disapproved of the way Trump is handling the issue, while 48% approved.

On the question of building additional immigration detention facilities (which reportedly is being considered in Orlando) 57% expressed opposition and 39% support such facilities.

Ron DeSantis is supported by 52% of the public, with 42% opposing him.

The poll consisted of 786 like Florida midterm voters and was conducted between Feb. 21 and March 2. It has a margin of error of  +/- 4.4 percentage points.