An analysis of Tallahassee’s mayoral election results shows that strong support from Southside and student-area voters propelled Jeremy Matlow to a narrow victory over Loranne Ausley, overcoming significant opposition in Northeast Tallahassee.
Matlow received 37,063 votes (50.9%) compared to Ausley’s 35,698 votes (49.1%), a margin of 1,365 votes.
The geographic breakdown reveals significant differences from the 2022 mayoral election, when incumbent John Dailey defeated progressive challenger Kristin Dozier by nearly 4,000 votes.
District 1 – Southside
Matlow captured 57.8% of the vote in District 1, which includes predominantly Black neighborhoods on Tallahassee’s Southside. His 8,250 votes exceeded Ausley’s 6,028 by 2,222 votes.
This represents a significant reversal from 2022, when Dailey defeated Dozier in the district by 735 votes.
The results indicate that Matlow’s campaign successfully attracted support in an area that previously favored the more moderate mayoral candidate.
District 2 – Student Areas
Matlow’s strongest percentage came in District 2, which includes Florida State University and surrounding student neighborhoods.
Matlow received 64.6% of the vote, defeating Ausley by 2,856 votes.
In 2022, Dozier carried the district by just 662 votes. Matlow’s substantially larger margin provided a critical advantage.
District 3 – Waverly, Betton Hills area
Ausley narrowly carried District 3, receiving 51.6% compared to Matlow’s 48.4%, a margin of 485 votes.
Dailey won the district by 654 votes in 2022, indicating continued support for more moderate candidates, although by a smaller margin.
District 4 – Northeast Tallahassee
Ausley’s strongest performance came in the more conservative Northeast neighborhoods, including Killearn and Summerbrooke.
Ausley received 62.5% of the vote, defeating Matlow by 3,598 votes.
In 2022, Dailey carried the district by 3,816 votes, demonstrating the Northeast’s continued importance as a stronghold for moderate candidates.
District 5 – Eastside
Matlow narrowly carried District 5, which includes neighborhoods east of downtown along the Mahan Drive and Apalachee Parkway corridors. Matlow received 51% of the vote, winning by 370 votes. Dozier carried the district by 553 votes in 2022.
The Bottom Line
The biggest difference between 2026 and the Dailey-Dozier race in 2022 was the Southside, where a 735-vote advantage for Dailey became a 2,222-vote advantage for Matlow — a net swing of 2,957 votes toward the progressive candidate. Combined with Matlow’s expanded advantage in District 2, that shift was sufficient to overcome Ausley’s substantial Northeast margin.
The results suggest that Tallahassee’s progressive coalition expanded beyond its traditional student and eastside base, fundamentally changing the electoral geography that delivered Dailey’s victory four years earlier.
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