Tracking Leon County COVID Cases and Recoveries

Tracking Leon County COVID Cases and Recoveries

TR has been tracking the COVID-19 pandemic by providing raw numbers for Leon County and Florida. We have also published trend charts which provided a different perspective.

None of these approaches take into account those people who tested positive for COVID-19 and then recovered.

The chart below takes the next step in tracking the COVID-19 pandemic by integrating an estimate of recoveries with the daily updates of new cases. The chart compares the cumulative cases – represented by a line – in Leon County with the cumulative cases minus the number of recoveries – represented by bars.

Most experts indicate that recoveries from COVID-19 take, on average, 21 days. Using this metric, the bars in the chart below estimates the number of current active cases in Leon County.

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This approach shows that active cases in Leon County peaked at 166 on April 25th. From April 25th to May 17th the number of current cases declined to approximately 68. Since May 17th, active cases have increased to 132 as of May 26th.

31 Responses to "Tracking Leon County COVID Cases and Recoveries"

  1. Avatar
    Allen   May 16, 2020 at 7:20 pm

    Thank you for this. Hopefully we can move quickly to Phase 3 and save what’s left.

    Reply
  2. Avatar
    Hope   May 17, 2020 at 7:15 am

    I don’t like to judge, but I witnessed an individual in a public place acting inappropriate in response to this virus. She was in a public place and actually thought someone came too close to her – which they did not – and she threw merchandise. I would consider this an assault.

    This person went out in public and was overly dramatic to the point where we was assaulting.

    In another situation I witnessed an employ being overly dramatic.

    People are acting ignorant. dramatic, — and crazy!

    Let the dramatic people stay home, otherwise let’s get back to work without acting dramatic to the point of ignorant and assaulting each other.

    Reply
  3. Avatar
    Hope   May 17, 2020 at 7:17 am

    *we should be she

    Reply
    • Avatar
      News Maven   May 17, 2020 at 10:06 am

      Hope: In a town full of miseducated, non-critical thinking illiberals, this is to be expected.
      And what’s the deal with The Great Miseducator’s building on Magnolia Drive? It’s vacant every time I drive by. No one allowed in, because they must perpetuate the Kung Flu Fear?

      Flush! Goodbye.

      Reply
      • Avatar
        Tammy   May 17, 2020 at 2:48 pm

        ????meaningless garble

        Reply
  4. Avatar
    Amy   May 17, 2020 at 8:24 am

    Is the recovery data an estimate based on prediction of disease lengthen or fact from confirmed recovery data?

    Reply
  5. Avatar
    Michael Morton   May 17, 2020 at 9:40 am

    I will not shop at any bussiness where the employees DON’T WEAR FACEMASK. I MADE MY LADT PURCHASE from my favorite seafood only retailer a week ago. No facemask no shopping at tour bussiness.

    Reply
  6. Avatar
    Michael Morton   May 17, 2020 at 9:43 am

    If your employees dont wear facemask you won’t get my business. Period.

    Reply
    • Avatar
      Hope   May 17, 2020 at 12:39 pm

      Well then, you better stay out of Home Depot where you would surely have a conniption fit.

      Reply
  7. Avatar
    Michael Morton   May 17, 2020 at 9:46 am

    I have not posted my comments on line ever. Those were not duplicate. Hiding the things you dont want to hear? Shame in you.

    Reply
  8. Avatar
    Hope   May 17, 2020 at 11:09 am

    Agreed. Next time I will take a photo of the insanity to accompany my comment.

    Reply
  9. Avatar
    slo   May 17, 2020 at 12:50 pm

    So… no one has done any reporting on recoveries because the DOH data has the date the case was entered, NOT the day the symptoms arrived for the patient. There is no connection to the date the lab submitted the case to DOH and when the person’s clock for recovery would start.
    Also, which of the ‘recoverd’ patients are actually one of the 6 mortalities?

    Reply
    • Avatar
      News Maven   May 17, 2020 at 4:08 pm

      ALL 6 deaths in Leon County related to the Tallahassee Development Center.
      The other 99.9999% of us have survived, in spite of unwarranted, overstepping government tyranny.

      I propose we hold back our property taxes next fall, since the local tyrants have held back our ability to earn the income to pay it. Wouldn’t that be something!

      Reply
  10. Avatar
    Lena   May 17, 2020 at 1:58 pm

    While figures of confirmed cases on the downward trend are encouraging, until the virus is treatable, letting your guard down could lead to rising numbers again.

    Remember, we only got here because we took action. At the start of the US pandemic, areas who did not (like nearby Albany, GA) paid a long-lasting price of mass illness and death.

    And there are people, like in my circle of family and friends, who actually tested negative, but were subsequently proven to have the virus. So, confirmed case numbers aren’t the whole story. And some survivors get through it, but with a reduced quality of life.

    The truth of it is still that we don’t know everything about transmission. There is no vaccine, no proven effective treatment and no cure.

    Tread carefully.

    Reply
    • Avatar
      Shackly   May 17, 2020 at 7:49 pm

      Wow, finally someone who’s not some lunatic in the comments!

      Reply
  11. Avatar
    Kathy   May 17, 2020 at 2:13 pm

    We are doing pretty good here in Leon County. I have not seen any drama except on this comment section. Please be tolerant and no name calling. Some people are scared they will get sick and spread it to their family. We are all just trying to get by and get this virus behind us.

    Reply
    • Avatar
      Hope   May 17, 2020 at 4:00 pm

      If they are scared and are going to act inappropriate to the point where they are assaulting others and acting irrationally then they need to stay home.

      Reply
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  13. Avatar
    Seemore   May 18, 2020 at 6:11 am

    I am thankful. Seemore not think it wise to salt others. Is it rising numbers or numbers rising? True or False: Ben Crump? The universe is made of exactly different things. Matter and don’t matter. Gravity and comedy. Reliable sources and resourceful liars. Unsung heroes and unhung zeroes. I am thankful.

    Reply
  14. Avatar
    Erin Hall   May 18, 2020 at 9:59 am

    Went to Waffle House night before last and was shocked. One person ( the cook) in the place had a mask on down below her chin, dirty tables and my brother almost freaked out and walked out. No gloves or an attempt to sanitize the seating areas. Grabbed our silverware with bare hands, food plates too. If I get Covid I’ll know exactly where I got it from. Shame on you Waffle House Capital Circle NW.

    Reply
    • Avatar
      Jon   May 18, 2020 at 2:43 pm

      More likely you’ll get ecoli or 1000 other things that are always around! Let corporate know. Only way they’ll change.

      Reply
  15. Avatar
    Jon   May 18, 2020 at 2:41 pm

    Thanks for the new chart. I realize it’s just a logical estimate and not official, but nice to see some context finally. It would be nice if the media didnt just say “take this seriously” but also “but not too seriously” since 99% recover.

    Reply
  16. Avatar
    Ryan   May 18, 2020 at 4:10 pm

    Why is a graph that claims to be cumulative not monotonically increasing? Did they decide to reduce the number if someone leaves town?

    Reply
  17. Avatar
    MD   May 18, 2020 at 4:31 pm

    This comments section is quite similar to most others I’ve read. There are a few interesting and useful comments. Then, there are many that are indiscernible and meaningless drivel. I wish there were more of the former.

    Reply
  18. Avatar
    DAS   May 21, 2020 at 9:59 am

    What happened to the graph with the 14 or 7 day new cases trend line? That was very helpful. If not available here , does anyone know where the state of florida publishes such a graph?

    Reply
  19. Avatar
    MS   May 24, 2020 at 8:19 pm

    We have been very fortunate in Leon County SO Far.
    The college students stayed home after spring break and the public schools closed. Legislative session was ending, and we are hardly a spring break destination. So timing and preemptive decisions worked for us. Not sure we will be so lucky in the fall, but at least we have some time to plan ahead. We are buying the scientists and our health care providers time, that’s the best we can do.

    Reply
  20. Avatar
    AN   May 25, 2020 at 12:10 pm

    Ryan, the graph IS monotonic but what it is not is strictly monotonic and that’s okay.

    Reply
  21. Avatar
    HK   May 25, 2020 at 8:22 pm

    Any update of the reason for the 40 new cases today?

    Reply
    • Avatar
      Staff   May 25, 2020 at 8:52 pm

      There were results from over 1,100 tests reported today. No other info provided. We will be following up this week.

      Reply
  22. Avatar
    Jim   May 25, 2020 at 9:44 pm

    let’s put Hope in charge, she seems like a good ole girl that would RULE like trump. my way or the highway – whatever happened to the America I knew growing up that came together to help each other and put ALL of our needs into the consideration. Do onto others as you would have done to you – remember that??

    Reply
  23. Avatar
    Jim   May 25, 2020 at 9:48 pm

    I really wish I could go back to the time when I was growing up and Americans came together in times of crisis to HELP each other instead of like Hope constantly being critical and tearing others down. Whatever happened to lending a helping hand instead of tearing others apart – what happened to DO ONTO OTHERS AS YOU WOULD HAVE DONE TO YOU??

    Reply

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