The US Center for Disease Control (CDC) has released an update to their research on the fatality rate associated with COVID-19. The CDC first posted this data on May 20, 2020, with the understanding that the parameter values would be updated and augmented over time. This update, dated September 10th, is based on data received by CDC through August 8, 2020.
A quick summary of COVID-19 survival rates is shown below. The summary is based on the CDC table provided at the end of this report.
CDC COVID-19 Survival Rates
- Age 0-19 — 99.997%
- Age 20-49 — 99.98%
- Age 50-69 — 99.5%
- Age 70+ — 94.6%
Leon County
How do these rates compare to what has transpired in Leon County during the pandemic? The age groupings do not match directly, but this is what we know.
- In Leon County, there have been 6,811 COVID-19 cases reported for people under the age of 34 and and no reported deaths.
- For ages of 35-64, there have been 2,618 cases and 17 deaths. This is a 99.35% survival rate.
- For ages 65 and over, there have been 675 cases and 51 deaths. This is a 92.4% survival rate.
- For all ages below 65, the survival rate is 99.8% with 9,454 cases and 17 deaths.
- Overall, Leon County has a survival rate of 99.3% with 10,129 cases and 68 deaths.
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CDC Table on COVID-19 Scenarios
Source
Infection Fatality Ratio (IFR): The number of individuals who die of the disease among all infected individuals (symptomatic and asymptomatic). This parameter is not necessarily equivalent to the number of reported deaths per reported case because many cases and deaths are never confirmed to be COVID-19, and there is a lag in time between when people are infected and when they die. This parameter also reflects the existing standard of care, which may vary by location and may be affected by the introduction of new therapeutics.
CDC Releases Updated COVID-19 Fatality Rate Data added by Steve Stewart on
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The vast majority of us have immune systems that fight off the Covid 19 virus or any other disease for that matter (better known as killer cells). The (controlling) Democratic socialist pre-pro Communist one world Government politicians (who are in bed with the mainstream media) are the ones who are creating this ongoing atmosphere of despair, anxiety and fear that is unprecedented in the United States and around the world! We have become a sheepal society of propagandize people who have become afraid of their own shadow!
99.97% survival rate! What are you afraid of?? Is it Covid 19 or is it the controlling “ political hacks”!!! WAKE UP!!
Here’s one for all you Einsteins: How many of you are actually epidemiologists, infectious disease experts or even medical doctors at all? I’m guessing none.
Some of you are good with statistics and quantitative data analysis. Yeah, well, so am I, it was my job for 20 years, but it doesn’t mean I know a damn thing factually, or have hands on experience working with this virus, and neither do any of you. You just have pages of numbers and percentiles put together by someone else from multiple source points and you’re graspng at straws to try and prove you’re right and the other guy is not.
Here’s a suggestion. Turn off the TV. Turn off the internet, stop dragging yourselves down over this. Have a cocktail. Go outside and enjoy nature. Read a book. Play a musical instrument. Do anything BUT trying to “right” this statistics crap spewed out to you by a government entity that you can’t trust to begin with.
Do the best you can to protect yourself and others you love and care about, and carry on with life. The less you know the better. Ignorance IS bliss.
the biggest problem with this article is it confuses Infection Fatality Rate (IFR) with Case Fatality Rate (CFR). CFR is the percentage of people with confirmed positive tests who die; IFR attempts to estimate the percentage of all people who are infected who succumb. These rates are often very different, because many people who contract the virus never get tested. Especially so with COVID since many, perhaps even most people who are infected, never really show any symptoms. One study in JAMA estimated that there have been 6 to 24 times more infections than confirmed cases in the US. The CDC table you posted contains estimated INFECTION fatality rates, the county data cited are CASE fatality rates. Apples and oranges.
This is a link to the CDC which has quite different numbers:
https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#demographics
People are not getting it from going to the store, as one person suggested. They are getting it from large groups. IF I were a person with a weak immune system, I would avoid those activities and participate in things with a trusted friend or two who understands my situation and who is willing to either wear a MASK or social distance. I attend a home based church. Yesterday, I was shocked to see a dear older member with quite a few health issues sans mask. (i AM Sure she is doing it at other times though) WE all social distanced for her sake. We didn’t hug each other. We washed our hands. But otherwise we preceded per the normal. My point being, if she isn’t scared w all her issues, then why shouold I be? There is something to be said for community despite these crazy times. We should not allow the authorities or this virus to break us off from this world. Mental health is just as important as physical health. One feeds the other.
I read the Scientific American article. Though it showed how data is collected, it showed no quality check – random sample audits – to confirm data integrity. My experience is you shouldn’t rely on data without this. Regardless, data we have is clear that the chance of dying from covid is very low unless other serious health problems are also present.
Since Covid started, who is keeping track of the deaths from ALL other causes? I, like so many others WORLDWIDE, are tired of the fear mongering. Every week is a new effort to increase the fear. It’s ludicrous! I have a 99% chance of surviving IF I get it. What are my chances of survival with colon cancer, being hit by a full tractor trailer going 45MPH, walking through a riot of BLM and Antifa people while wearing a Trump hat (yes I see this as life threatening)? Seriously.
Those statistics are wrong.
According to this CDC page…
https://data.cdc.gov/NCHS/Provisional-COVID-19-Death-Counts-by-Sex-Age-and-S/9bhg-hcku
…between Feb 1 and Oct. 14, we lost 910 young adults, ages 18-29, to Covid-19 (and only 102 to flu). Among 30-49 year-olds, we’ve lost 9,365 to Covid (and only 568 to flu).
They also list 379 deaths of 18-29 year-olds, and 4,214 30-49 year-olds, due to “Pneumonia and Covid-19,” but I don’t know whether those deaths are already included in the Covid-19 deaths, so I won’t count them. (I sent the CDC a question, asking them to clarify that.)
The CDC page doesn’t break out the numbers of deaths from each cause for ages 18 and 19, but the Covid-19 death rate is low among teenagers, so it is safe to say that at least 800 of the 910 deaths among 18-29 year-olds were in their 20s. That means there were at least 9,365+800 = 10,165 deaths of 20-49 year-olds.
The stats cited in this article claim that the survival rate among 20-49 years old is 99.98%. That is impossible. Here’s how you can tell that it is impossible:
There were at least 10,165 deaths in that age group. If the survival rate were 99.98% that would mean 9,998 recoveries for every 2 deaths, which is 50,814,835 recoveries, just among 30-49 year-olds.
it is not possible that there could have been 50 million recoveries among 30-49 year-olds. There are only about 84 million Americans in that age range, in total, so that would be over 60% of them.
There have been only 5,457,912 identified recoveries, so far, of all ages, in the entire country. Many people have had the disease without being diagnosed, but not THAT many. Serology tests suggest that about 5% of U.S. citizens (15-20 million) have been exposed to Covid-19, so far, not 60%.
Even though Covid-19 has probably infected fewer than 20 million Americans, so far, it has already killed one quarter of a million of them, and it continues to kill about 700 more, each day.
For comparison, a typical seasonal flu infects about 29 million Americans, and kills about 37,000 of them. Here’s a spreadsheet:
https://sealevel.info/CDC_Influenza_stats_Table1_2010-11_thru_2018-19_as_of_2020-04-04.html
Not only is Covid-19 far more deadly than typical seasonal flu, until a vaccine becomes available, Covid-19 has the potential to infect many more people than the flu does. One of the main reasons that seasonal flu usually infects fewer than 40 million Americans is that about half of all Americans get the flu jab, each year, including a disproportionately high percentage of those most vulnerable to the disease.
The good news is that an army of scientists are furiously working on vaccine development. At last count, no fewer than 180 different vaccines were under development! Here’s a very, very informative “tweetorial,” by an expert, which could be entitled, “Everything You Ever Wanted to Know About Coronavirus Vaccines* (*but were afraid to ask)”
Tweet #1:
https://twitter.com/florian_krammer/status/1310372301314101250
Tweet #138 (the last tweet):
https://twitter.com/florian_krammer/status/1310435247243304962
Whole thread, unrolled by ThreadReaderApp:
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1310372301314101250.html
(Best format, if you block the ads, e.g., with uBlock Origin.)
Whole thread, unrolled by Rattibha:
https://rattibha.com/thread/1310372301314101250
Whole thread, unrolled by Threader:
https://threader.app/thread/1310372301314101250
The CDC published the data based on their studies and they listed their sources. It is possible that the numbers vary from different regions but they factor that into their numbers. It appears that they are also considering how many asymptomatic cases under reported.
You are welcome to disagree, but it does not appear as though the information was quoted incorrectly.
The information was “not quoted incorrectly,” because it was not quoted at all. The CDC page simply does not say that.
Mr. Stewart’s article says, “CDC COVID-19 Survival Rates [for] Age 20-49 [are] 99.98%…”
In the first place, the CDC does not say that, and in the second place those numbers are provably wrong.
Here are the actual Covid-19 fatality statistics, from the CDC:
https://data.cdc.gov/NCHS/Provisional-COVID-19-Death-Counts-by-Sex-Age-and-S/9bhg-hcku
According to that CDC page, between Feb 1 and Oct. 14, we lost 910 young adults, ages 18-29, to Covid-19 (and only 102 to flu). Among 30-49 year-olds, we’ve lost 9,365 to Covid (and only 568 to flu).
They also list 379 deaths of 18-29 year-olds, and 4,214 30-49 year-olds, due to “Pneumonia and Covid-19,” but I don’t know whether those deaths are already included in the Covid-19 deaths, so I won’t count them. (I sent the CDC a question, asking them to clarify that.)
The CDC page doesn’t break out the numbers of deaths from each cause for ages 18 and 19, but the Covid-19 death rate is low among teenagers, so it is safe to say that at least 800 of the 910 deaths among 18-29 year-olds were in their 20s. That means there were at least 9,365+800 = 10,165 deaths of 20-49 year-olds.
Mr. Stewart’s article claims that the survival rate among 20-49 years old is 99.98%. But that is impossible. Here’s how you can tell that it is impossible:
There were at least 10,165 deaths in that age group. If the survival rate were 99.98% that would mean 9,998 recoveries for every 2 deaths, which is 50,814,835 recoveries, just among 30-49 year-olds.
It is not possible that there could have been 50 million recoveries among 30-49 year-olds. There are only about 84 million Americans in that age range, in total, so that would be over 60% of them.
There have been only 5,457,912 identified recoveries, so far, of all ages, in the entire USA. Many people have had the disease without being diagnosed, but not that many. Serology tests suggest that about 5% of U.S. citizens (15-20 million) have been exposed to Covid-19, so far, not 60%.
Mr. Stewart apparently misunderstood the CDC web page which he credited as the source of the information. He claimed that the CDC page shows “their research on the fatality rate associated with COVID-19.” But the actual CDC page that he linked to says nothing like that. In fact, it contradicts that.
The CDC page describes five different hypothetical “planning scenarios,” used in mathematical modeling, and it explicitly says, “The parameters in the scenarios… Are not predictions of the expected effects of COVID-19.”
If you’re using Google Chrome, then this “text fragment link” should take you to that statement, on the CDC page:
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scenarios.html#:~:text=Are%20not,predictions%20of%20the%20expected%20effects%20of%20COVID-19.
The five wildly varying hypothetical “scenarios” on that page contain estimates of many different parameters, one of which is the case fatality rate, for which they use three different possible estimates, which they credited to a paper by a Swiss academic named Anthony Hauser. However, that appears to be an error, because the Hauser paper contains quite different (higher!) infection fatality ratio (IFR) estimates, as you can see:
https://journals.plos.org/plosmedicine/article?id=10.1371/journal.pmed.1003189#:~:text=Estimates%20of%20IFR%20ranged%20from%200.5%%20(95%%20CrI%200.4%%E2%80%930.6%)%20in%20Switzerland%20to%201.4%%20(1.1%%E2%80%931.6%)%20in%20Lombardy,%20Italy.
Based on data from China and Europe during early stages of the epidemic, they reported Infection Fatality Ratios varying from 0.5% (Switzerland as of 23 April) to 2.9% (Hubei as of 11 February). Here’s their “Table 1” (look in the right-hand column):
https://sealevel.info/hauser2020_ifr_table1.png
The Hauser paper concluded, “estimates of the IFR [infection fatality ratio were] around 3% in Hubei Province, China, and rang[ed] between 0.5% and 1.4% in six included European locations.”
https://journals.plos.org/plosmedicine/article?id=10.1371/journal.pmed.1003189#:~:text=similar%20estimates%20of%20the%20IFR,six%20included%20European%20locations.
At any rate, regardless of whether the authors of the CDC page about planning scenarios misunderstood the Hauser paper, they were very clear about the fact that their planning scenarios, “Are not predictions of the expected effects of COVID-19.” That means Mr. Stewart’s article is wrong.
I don’t know, it looks like the the CDC’s explanation says this: “This scenario represents a current best estimate about viral transmission and disease severity in the United States, with the same caveat: that the parameter values will change as more data become available.”
Sure, this is not the same thing as a “prediction”, I guess. Because they aren’t predicting. It’s science in progress. They are just saying that this is what the research (sited) shows so far. I think you are trying to say that you are reading the empirical data and concluding it can’t be true. I’d say that we would probably have to be careful with concluding what can and can’t be true. None of us has enough information. You say that it is “impossible” that 60% of the population has already recovered from this. Why? Just because official figures of recoveries show one number surely doesn’t make it impossible. It is not a stretch or not difficult at all to imagine that LOTS of people have had the disease and it was never reported, especially since it appears to be accepted that 80% or so of cases are mild (ie don’t result in hospitalization). There would be no real reason to imagine that the health care system would have data on those cases. Just as no one knew (or much cared) in the past when you got a virus, stayed home for two days and then went back to work. It’s just normal life – no one keeps statistics on it. Does this mean there have been the 50 million recoveries you calculate? I don’t know. Not necessarily. Another problem, as someone else pointed out is that lots of deaths appear to have been recorded as COVID despite scant evidence that the death was actually caused by COVID (little more than a positive test and in some cases less than that). So, what are the odds that the official 10,000 deaths that you site are accurate. Again, I don’t know but again, it’s not hard to imagine that they are wrong.
So what – in your estimation – are the mortality rates? I got lost in all the things it wasn’t …
Anyway, here’s the link to the page on the CDC where these numbers are pulled directly from. See table 1. The Tallahassee Reports seem to be entirely correct in their reporting – but of course, if anyone wants to challenge official CDC statistics that’s their prerogative.
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scenarios.html
As always – multiply ratios with 100 to get the percentages.
Could have been in serious agreement with Linda until she made those unfortunate and stupid comments towards the end of her post. No wonder the Country is a mess!
Uh, I think you misread the data. The article states an IFR of 0.054 for people over 70. This means the chance of death is 5.4%, as 0.054*100 is 5.4. The writer of the original article shows such a lack of understanding of basic middle school maths, it’s absolutely pathetic.
Nevermind, I’m an idiot.
You are confusing CFR (case fatality ratio), which tells us nothing and which changes with the number of tested persons, with the true IFR which is currently calculated as:
# of all deaths in a specified population related to Covid-19 (from and with) / total # of persons infected by SARS-CoV-2 virus in that entire population (reported ans “cases” and unreported.
IFR tels us the probabiloty of death outcome once infected.
The current estimates are that 10% ti 25% of the entire population is infected, which is much more than recorded, in other words, way more people do not get confirmed infection due to non existence or mildness of the symptoms that never prompts them to get tested.
The same goes for any other respiratory infection. Take the data for seasonal flu from CDC, as an example: more than 10 times more people don’t visit the doctor than those that do. CFR for flu is app 58 times higher than IFR. (7,5% vs true 0,13%).
OK, I see now what your main argument is. I didn’t realize that immediately. I took a close look to the CDC table you are referring to. In each row, the number of covid deaths can be obtained by subtracting from total pneumonia, flu and covid deaths, the number of flu deaths, the number of pneumonia deaths and then ADDING the number of pneumonia and covid deaths column.
Now, the newer estimates of IFRs given in the CDC article that was cited in the above article, are from many credible external data sources. USA is notorious for counting ALL deaths with just the PCR positive test occurring during 30 days (and more) after the positive PCR test, be it traffic accidents, strokes, etc. It is also notorious for counting the deaths with only suspected covid but with negative PCR test as covid deaths. New York state, after the criticism about this started to report these deaths separately (about 50% of all covid deaths) but hey are nevertheless included in the official count. Likewise, the deaths from influenza almost vanished in the 2020/2021 season, and the column flu deaths reflects only January to March 2020. This can be best explained by counting all the covid suspect deaths (flu deaths) as covid deaths and by counting flu deaths with false-positive PCR as covid deaths.
All prominent molecular biologists agree that after May 2020, given the high sensitivity and low incidence, the PCR tests give at least 80% of false positive results (out of all positive results) . Nevertheless, in May 2020 or earlier, the guidelines for testing changed, so that when the test is negative it is repeated, and if hen positive, it is reported as a case. This is contrary to good laboratory practice and to how PCR results have been interpreted prior to this year. PCR is so sensitive that when two consecutive results are not the same, it used to be considered negative. So, the good laboratory practice would mean to repeat the test for every positive result only and if then negative, to consider t negative. Just the opposite was done. In addition, another violation of good lab practice is treating positive amplifications at Ct higher than 30 (even 40) as positve result. This would be an obvious false-positive.
Given all this, and also given the fact that in the age group lower than 50y people with covid don’t die of the pneumonia caused by SARS-2, but from sepsis or ARDS, or diabetes complications, or heart failure (in fact, the incidence of pneumonia in that age group correlates with recovery), it is reasonable to assume that virtually all the pneumonia deaths in the USA in the age group 30-50y are what they are: pneumonia deaths, not covid deaths. So the column “pneumonia and covid” should not be added (and it represents over 46% of reported covid deaths in thid age group). In addition, the obvious misclassification of influenza as covid in the Fall season 2020, means that a large portion of reported covid deathswere actually flu deaths.
In many other countries, these considerations were taken into account when estimating the true IFR form (not with) covid-19.
If you correct the column “covid deaths” by subtracting “pneumonia and covid deaths” column, i.e. just subtract from the “pneumonia, flu and covid deaths” the columns “flu deaths” and “pneumonia deaths”, and then correct for the miss-classified influenza, using the last year data for flu (that was a mild flu season, btw) then you ll get the more correct number of true covid deaths (but still inflated for heart disease, strokes, traffic accidents etc). Then your calculation will give 10% -20% of infected in this age group, which what te epidemiologists say anyway.
https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#demographics
Another link to CDC website with quite different numbers than quoted in this article
Here are the facts on how Illinois calculates COVID-19 deaths, straight from the IL Dept of Public Health Director. Want to bet Illinois isn’t the only state fudging the numbers? https://week.com/2020/04/20/idph-director-explains-how-covid-deaths-are-classified/
Bingo, Kathleen. Only a willfully ignorant, gullible moron can’t see that this is a manufactured crisis whose real agenda has nothing to do with public health.
Gov’t funds is behind the inflation of deaths to the ChiCom virus. And it’s not just two states that are inflating numbers. Gov’t payments for covid deaths is nation wide … And the CDC is complicit in that deception when they use these bogus state stats in their covid death reports.
Florida department of health exposed for massively inflating COVID-19 positivity rate
https://www.theblaze.com/news/florida-department-of-health-exposed-for-massively-over-reporting-positive-covid-cases?xrs=RebelMouse_fb&ts=1594906465
Just looking at these figures in the context of the US population.
There are about 70 million people in the US aged 50-70. This report says that 0.5% of those people will die if they get Covid-19.
That’s 350,000 people between 50-70 die if the US took no precautions.
There are a further 30 million older than 70. Their death rate is 5.4% according to this report.
That would be 1,620,000 dead people over 70 if the US took no precautions.
In total that would be over 2,000,000 dead people over 50 if the US didn’t take any precautions.
Lelly, how can you possibly extrapolate to the entire US population. You are Assuming everyone’s going to get it which is hardly the case. A big percentage of the population will be immune already. People that never catch the common cold which is also a type of Coronavirus likely will have high immunity to covid-19
I’m not sure you realise how immunity works Don. You build immunity by getting sick and recovering, not by never getting sick
You might have missed some of the research that shows that previous exposure to other coronaviruses can lead to immunity to this particular coronavirus (or at least partial immunity).
But I think the underlying point that Don makes is quite strong – there is no reasonable expectation that everyone will get COVID-19, either with or without masks, etc. So using such an expectation to project possible death tolls is unfounded. One can easily confirm this by taking the IFR of any particular communicable disease one wants to select, multiplying it by the number of people in the US population and seeing that we do not experience such death rates for any of them, even with more reasonable precautions like washing hands, coughing into your elbow, etc.
People DO die from communicable disease and they always have and they always will. Generally, we have not decided that this was a fact that required us to throw ourselves in prison. COVID-19 does not appear to be wildly different from any other communicable disease in terms of transmissability or death rate, so why society has decided this is a good time to turn itself upside is clearly a result of something other than the qualities of this disease. What is that other thing? Or things?
Thank you for the only scientific answer here. Everyone else is just spouting political garbage.
Can someone explain how you get these percentages…
Age 0-19 — 99.997%
(3 decimal places, when in the table it’s 5? 0.00003)
Age 20-49 — 99.98%
(2 decimal places, in the table it’s 4. 0.0002)?
Etc etc..
Age 50-69 — 99.5%
Age 70+ — 94.6%
Why? How?
Because the table shows the number as a ratio. To make that a percentage you would multiply the ratio by 100. Or move the decimal point two places.
The difference is one is using percentages the other ones using ratios the ratio can be translated into a percent by multiplying by 100
This is because it was recorded as a infection fatality rate *Ratio* on cdc supposed to a percentage. So when you make 0.00003 a fraction it is 0.00003 over 1, but when it is a made a percentage it adds two zeros to the denominator which subtracts two zeros from the numerator. This will give you 0.003 over 100 or 0.003% fatality rate.
First of all, as clearly stated, the table represents parameters for pandemic planning scenarios based on external source data, not actual counts, predictions, nor estimates of the expected COVID-19 impact.
Secondly, the Infection Fatality Ratio represents a comparison of the age group’s infection fatalities to the fatalities of ALL infected. IFRs reflect proportion of incidence, NOT fatality RATE.
Although multiplying the IFR of any group by 100 results in a number that can be stated as a %, it represents only the group’s fatalities as a % of overall fatalities. It does NOT indicate the group’s fatality rate.
Not true. The specified IFR in the table is calculated as follows: IFR = # of deaths related to Covid -19 in a specified age group / total # of people infected with SARS-CoV-2 virus in that age group.
Folks, the newly released CDC data percentages are FROM THE BEGINNING of Covid-19 through August 8, 2020. It is not a snap shot of “a good last 2 weeks” as some suggest on here. Its a calculation of the fatality rate over the entire pandemic or plandemic. CDC’s own data demonstrates that the destruction of our society and freedoms were unnecessary. The powers that be should let each person decide if they want to leave their home with a mask or without, going forward.
Perhaps some of the measures are too severe. The initial lockdowns should have been regional and maybe not national. But we live in a world of “choiceless choices.” Lots of people can’t’ decide if they feel like going to work or not. Not everyone has the option to work from home.
It is our nation’s responsibility to protect its citizens, and we must make sure that Americans are not in excess danger at work or others places. We also can’t endanger others (healthcare workers, in particular, who work with vulnerable populations). You can’t target nurses, doctors and those who work with the elderly, and for all intents and purposes say “stay home so the rest of us can get back to normal.” I actually had to have many procedures done this summer and was in close contact with many nurses. It was nice to know that the virus wasn’t spreading out of control in my area so that the risk of me getting sick was very low and I could take care of my health needs and not postpone. There wasn’t a 100% guarantee but at 2% transmission, it was worth the risk for me. In general, we HAVE to keep community transmission at a safe enough level that we can test and contact trace. If we do, then things CAN reopen. It won’t be 100% safe, but the economy will suffer more if the virus goes unchecked.
You also can’t really tell random groups of people that if they don’t like it, they can stay home. That isn’t freedom either. And that is also entirely impractical. Vulnerable people probably shouldn’t hang out at restaurants, but they might need to go to stores, hospitals, pharmacies, school, and their jobs. I know more than one person who has suffered from this virus and they were not obese, sick, or elderly people wasting away at a home. They were productive members of society. One made it, one didn’t, and one has permanent kidney damage.
We could, as a nation, support people financially during a lockdown. We are the richest nation on the planet. But we can’t bring people back from the dead nor fix their broken bodies as easily. And healthcare is expensive and costs us all, too.
And masks protect others more than they protect you. I recognize that it is unclear how well they work, but I do feel like it is the kind thing to do. It signals that you care enough about your community to inconvenience yourself for others’ safety. I wear a mask for an hour at a time at work. I suck it up. So can you! And no, you don’t have the right to get me sick in the name of “freedom.” Good health is a type of freedom, too. I expect you to drive at acceptable speeds, sober, and stop at red lights so that I can drive with less chance of a collision. Road rules are not a violation of your freedom. They are actually protecting it. Masks are similar in my mind, as are other measures based in science (I do understand that not all of the measures have been appropriate, that doesn’t mean you throw the baby out with the bath water).
We obviously won’t save everyone. But we should decide how many deaths are acceptable and go from there. Zero is probably not the answer. But what is? I want leaders with enough courage to throw out a number of what is acceptable and what isn’t, and put their feet on the breaks as necessary.
Average age of a Covid19 fatality is 78.
In the UK we’re now seeing estimates of premature deaths caused by “lockdown” far outnumbering those from Covid19 and we have free health care.
The model used by most governments to guide their response the Covid19 was a complete mess and has been proven to be worse than useless.
The IFR for Covid19 is still not known but if it falls much further it will as some predicted be in the same ballpark as a bad influenza.
In the UK we are still looking at less excess deaths this year than we’ve seen in recent years.
Very well said! I am not good at getting my thoughts out or my point across but this is pretty much spot on.
What if I told you… there is no virus and there never was a virus? Wake up sheep!
I would tell you you are a moron
Morpheus is right, Lana.
This was planned. Look up World economic forum and klaus Schwab and their plan for a “great reset” other people linked to this billionaire Bloomberg, bill gates, George Soros (this guy is even linked to BLM and antifa) Look at the connections they have to the world health organization, china and why a trump pulled out of the WHO. Gates donates 9.8 percent to the WHO’s funds. And in America john Hopkins university is supposedly the go to for coronavirus stats which has received millions from Bill Gates and the Lancet that produces a lot of info and studies of the coronavirus is also connected to Bill Gates the Lancet has articles saying Bill Gates is the “modern day Robin hood”. And from 2000 on he has given speeches at the world economic forum. This pandemic is key to the WEF movement to bringing “the great reset” they want to drive the economy down so low that people will be begging them for “the great rest” in Hope’s to make the world “a better place” it’s all bullshit. Capitalism yet flawed is a better economic plan than these cronies and the “great reset” and if all the countries buy into this bs the World economic forum and people that go to it will own you and civilization. Great reset and these globalist are trying to buy you on communism/socialism on a large scale and look how well that worked out for Soviet union and fascist italy back in the day. We all need to stand together as one people to thwart their efforts or we and our children are screwed. In America Democrats are pushing for this 1619 project that is like saying slavery was a capitalist ideal and Abraham Lincoln was a white supremacist they are trying to in a way hide (the demcraps) involvement with slavery desegregation. They are trying to teach our kids this bullshit so young people will be on the socialist/communist train and ultimately buy into this great reset plan. I understand some of socialism ideals could work but as a whole it is entirely flawed. I’m all for making the world a better place but this reset is not the way. We all need to stand against them and people in our government passing on these highly corrupt stats. Truth matters free speech matters and making sure we get both sides of the story matters which journalism now a days has fallen completely short of.
i would say you are closer to being correct than the people telling you it is a pandemic.
I would tell you that they have never isolated and purified the so called “Sars-Cov-2” virus, meaning that there is no scientific proof it exists.
My question to you now is “what if i told you viruses do NOT cause diseases?”
Read the book “The Contagion Myth: Why Viruses (including “Coronavirus”) Are Not the Cause of Disease”
80,000 died with flu/pneumia comorbidity. 6k with intentional/unintentional injury! Why is this listed? The margin of error is approx 3% (MD just threw away their Korean tests because of false positives) and we have had a flat/downward trending positivity rate for months and at least a month within margin of error of the test! Will always have “cases” due to false positives. OUr hospitals have been empty for months and never used the emergency locations. We have approx 350 hospitalized in our 72 hospitals (avg 5/unit)! Yet no movies, school, etc. Joke
This whole conversation seems to be missing one very important angle. When CoVID-19 first hit our shore the medical community did not know how to treat it, so more people died. Now we have cheap and widely available drugs like dexamethasone and remdesivir that are very effective so arguably the overall death rate today is lower than 5 months ago. the threat of death is still there but you can’t do the easy 200,000/7,000,000 math to get a current picture. The formula has to consider change over time so dust of your calculus books. Do your own math, do your own research, don’t be a lemming. Consider all data not just the points that fit your favorite narrative. If more of us did this you’d be surprised how much we’d all agree.
It’s lower than driving a car. Are we banning all cars indefinitely?
Yawn…more covid stats…don’t you all think its time to give it a rest?
Comorbidities
Table 3 shows the types of health conditions and contributing causes mentioned in conjunction with deaths involving coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). For 6% of the deaths, COVID-19 was the only cause mentioned. For deaths with conditions or causes in addition to COVID-19, on average, there were 2.6 additional conditions or causes per death. The number of deaths with each condition or cause is shown for all deaths and by age groups.
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/index.htm?fbclid=IwAR3-wrg3tTKK5-9tOHPGAHWFVO3DfslkJ0KsDEPQpWmPbKtp6EsoVV2Qs1Q#Comorbidities
Unfortunately the powers at be want this to be what it is… I’ve screamed till I was blue in the face since April and nobody cares.. we are all slaves on this earth … very sad
It’s really a simple matter of 1+1=2 folks… It’s all about the destruction of America, Her President, and Our Republic. Ask yourself;
~ What impedes China’s goal of world economic and military dominance, power, and control?… America’s economy and President Trump’s “America First” policies.
~ What impedes the Demunists’ goal of returning to dominance, power, and control of America?… America’s economy and President Trump’s “America First” policies.
~ What do the two aforementioned entities have in common, in order to achieve their respective goals?… the destruction of America’s economy and President Trump’s “America First” policies.
If you think that China, Demunists, Media and Social media PACs, and even Establishment RINOs are above colluding to achieve their mutual goal – no matter the cost to life and liberty – then you’re dangerously naïve. Wake up America. It’s happening right in front of our eyes.
Demunists, lol. Way to make your point by denigrating a group that is comprised of people with a vast array of beliefs and values. By the way, I am a total leftist, so take your shots.
“… a group that is comprised of people with a vast array of beliefs and values.“
So that’s the definition of the Democrat/Socialist/Progressive/Communist Party… aka: the New Demunist Party… well, I guess you could say it’s diverse.
I don’t take shots, I just call them as I see ‘em… unless we’re talking about JD, then I’m in for one or three. 🙂
Call em as you see em. Well, I guess you really should get out more.
Never knew there were so many epidemiologists and data scientists in Tallahassee.
Trump’s “America First” means the USA is saying, “Buzz off”, to the rest of the world. Meanwhile, China is saying, “Nice to see you. How can we work together?” Trump is rapidly accelerating Chinese domination and harming the US position in the world for generations to come.
Right Like in Taiwan? If getting robbed blind is friendship, you need to reevaluate your friends.
wait! you mean like when Obama allowed China to begin building up their own land islands in the middle of the China sea? Or Obama cancelled US naval operations in Red Sea so as not to antagonize the CCP? Give me a break China is getting ready for world domination.
A country known for killing it’s own people are not saying “hi nice to see u how can we work together” if they are then they are doing it so when u turn around they can stab you in the back. I was always taught “if you don’t have anything nice to say don’t say anything at all” well you can imagine what I’m saying to your ridiculous comment
I completely agree.
When you put a financial incentive on the table for a positive diagnosis, you destroy any hope of impartiality. Especially an incentive that will never, ever be cross checked and has no oversight.
Yet another example of why giving the government money is never the best way to get anything done.
Florida just continues to show how many glorified Trumplicans and gun loving idiots there are. Wait five years down the road to really see how devastating this virus was.
I think you mean how devastating the lockdown was…..
I’m with Bob.
If you want me to wear a mask because it protects you. I want you to wear a gun because it protects me. fair? I think so, the government is forcing me to wear a mask to protect you, i think its fair for the government to force you to wear a gun as well.
It’s all about power and money.
What I think is really funny here is that we are hung up on Mortality rates and infection rates for a virus that causes NO Symptoms in 80% of the people it infects – so if that’s the case and we can assume that up to 80% of those infected in this country have never become symptomatic enough to trigger testing, treatment, or hospitalization, but have been infected with and recovered from the virus, how can any of these mortality rates or infection rates be legitimate?! And this fact alone should actually show that Covid IS Much Less deadly than the flu across the board. The Flu actually kills across the age spectrum and without comorbitities every year even with a vaccine – COVID alone has only killed 10,000 people with no underlying conditions. The Average Age of Mortality in the US from Covid is 80 Years Old.. and over 70% of those who have died were living in Nursing Homes and Convalescent Centers not in the workforce.
We have a terrorist organization in the US and they are more powerful and more deadly than Al Queda or the Taliban.. They are the Democratic Party and they will destroy this country and punish you into submission until you surrender.
Time to Wake Up..
I believe that you really don’t understand how the cause of a death is determined. Ask yourself this question, how many of the 200,000+ people who are listed as COVID deaths would be alive now? Using the 10,000 number is totally dishonest. Talk to coroners and medical examiners about how they determine the cause of death of a patient.
FREETHINKER. FWIW.
My boss , age 74, healthy, had to stay home in March.
He broke his hip…Had surgery, went home, caught an infection went in the hospital and died….
He did NOT have COVID nor the FLU, YERT they PUT died from covid on his death certificate..
You do understand that the government was PAYING $15,000 to each hospital for a death and $45,000 gif they died with a ventilator attached…..
So yes the numbers are and have been a lie from the getgo…..sorry to burst your bubble…
Lest we not forget as the covid-19 was making its way to our shores Nancy Pelosi and Chuck Schumer were only concerned and zeroed in on what they thought to be the most important issue on the universe… Impeachment.
Imagine if those two would only do their jobs and focus on issues that help Americans. They suck all that is good out of America and leave neglect and devastation in their path.
When we figure out who’s behind the bio-weapon covid-19 please add Nancy Pelosi and Chuck Schumer to the list of perpetrators.
Turn off Fox News.
Turn off Fake News CNN and MSNBC.
Look up Dr. Stanley Milgram and the 2015 Biopic movie on him entitled Experimenter. It’s the story of his famous 1963 social psychology experiments leading to his book “Obedience to Authority.” Basically, his studies found that roughly 65% of participants were willing to administer graduating doses of electric shocks to another person to the point of killing them every time they failed to answer a question correctly so long as someone in a “lab” coat was giving them authoritative directions. The “electric shocks” were fake but the test subject did not know this. The person hired to be shocked was also fake. Dr. Milgram who was Jewish, wanted to assess why a civilized country like Germany could fall down the path of darkness and mass slaughter.
Now, flash forward to today and these results published by the CDC, for us 35% folks nothing new here. In the face of invincible ignorance as illustrated by some TR posters I think it’s clear as day this whole “pandemic” has been nothing short of a “plandemic.” But because of the 65% of the populace’s strict obedience to authority also illustrated by our Capital District Kommissars the plandemic must continue at all costs. Simply go back and watch the Event 201 YouTube videos on their wargaming exercise last October for a plandemic. It’s being followed to the letter still. Simply look at the “white” coats who first told us not to mask up, before telling us to “mask” up as well as being anti-socially distant. Simply look at how Covid-1984 deaths are calculated by the CDC here in the states. Roughly 6% of deaths are Covid-1984 only, the remainder of deaths had approximately 2 or more co-morbidities. Yes, Covid-1984 helped them die sooner than they would have but they were already on that path, sad to say. Also according to the CDC the median age of deaths is 78 and the average life expectancy of an American is 78. And now we have definitive evidence from the CDC itself that the survivability of Covid-1984 is sky high. The kind of odds you’d go to Vegas with every day.
The college kids have already figured this out and no, they will not be killing “Mema” and “Papa” by their non-masking, anti-socially distant behavior as this virus is primarily spread via fecal/oral transmission as evidenced by the wild spread of this in nursing homes among incontinent seniors. Furthermore, there is no definitive proof that any asymptomatic carrier of any corona virus spreads it to others. Evidence of which has also been suppressed as not fitting the plandemic narrative.
The CDC, WHO and that criminal Fauci will always publicly contradict their agencies’ own publications that show clear evidence that this “plandemic” is slightly worse than the flu. Sweden is possibly the only first world country to not go along like lemmings on the Covid-1984 insanity and has come out on the other end like rock stars with no mask mandates, no lock downs, and no second wave.
I think Governor Desantis is finally realizing what a “plandemic” this is and is trying to open things up by forcing these clown local jurisdictions, like ours, to stop the stupidity and strict obedience to authority.
Fecal/oral? Seriously? https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0048969720324360
https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/8/20-0681_article
Sounds like the movie “Human Centipede”.
Possibly, but a long way from a proven objective fact. Where did you get your info from? Was it from a peer-reviewed white paper?
The fact is it’s airborne, and once it gets inside the host its spikes target the receptors of the endothelium in blood vessels. That’s why complications aren’t just respiratory (pulmonary circulation), but also cardiac, other organ systems, brain, etc.
I understand if you’re not around this directly or had anyone you know affected by it to have your opinion, but that doesn’t mean it’s not real. Hope you and your family/friends don’t come down with this; I know several that have succumbed. All of these (as far as I know) had other co-morbidities and Covid drove them off the edge of the cliff.
They are all connected to world economic forum, bill gates, and the great reset. Bill Gates has funded/donated money to world health organization, cnn, PBS, NYT, CBS, nbc, usatoday and politicafact a fact checker platform amongst several other media outlets. You can not stand there and think this isn’t a biased misinformation movement not to mention john hopkins university where a lot of people get their coronavirus information was a Bill Gates melinda gates reproductive department. WAKE UP EVERYONE PLEASE!!!
You are 100% correct!
I haven’t really dug into the data, but let me just throw this out. Currently there are more than 200,000 reported COVID related deaths and just over 7,000,000 known cases. Just using those numbers I calculate 2.86% deaths/cases. Both of those numbers are, of course, incomplete.
Here’s the 2018-19 US flu casualty rate: https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2018-2019.html#:~:text=CDC%20estimates%20that%20influenza%20was,the%202018%E2%80%932019%20influenza%20season.
That would be a 0.096% death rate. And that’s why this Covid shit is so serious.
Common Sense. So yes, all citizens should indeed be cautious of the disease, however if you are young fear of the disease is simply irrational. If you are elderly you should absolutely be cautious of covid and take the proper precautions as about 1 in 20 will die if the disease is contracted. However, let’s not forget that this is ‘if the disease is contracted. If we assume that the fatality rate of 0.096% is accurate then we recognize the percent of the population that has contracted the disease in order to put these numbers in proportion. 320 million divided by 7.5 million is about 43. If we then take the number 43 and divide it into 0.096 we get 0.002%. This means that as a unit and individual in america, from a very rough standpoint, there is a 99.998% chance that you will not die of covid-19. To put this number in perspective: right now, the probability that any citizen in America has to die of covid is the same chance as one has to win a 1.5 million dollar lottery. 1 in 50,000 chance that is. We should be cautious of the spread of disease, but we must also be cautious of when precaution degenerates into phobia.
Free Thinker. So it’s not the numbers that are incomplete, it is actually your calculations that are incomplete. The percentage of 2.86% fatality rate is proportionate. This is because as the fatality rate increases exponentially with respect to age of infected; the distribution of total share of deaths simultaneously increases. This means that those over 70 account for the majority of fatalities from Covid-19. In this case those over 70 account for 160 thousand of total deaths or 80% of deaths. This means that 80% of those who have died from the disease have had a chance of death well over 1% (on average 5.4%). Therefore your calculation of the average fatality rate as 2.86% is proportionate.
Now is the time for someone to get into query mode and cross reference the testing results data. The systems are not networked, and you will find massive duplication in patient data. People are getting tested multiple times, in some cases as required before returning to work. However, these results are not being counted and reported as one person/case with multiple positive tests, but rather as separate and individual positive tests, thus leading to false and/or inflated totals.
The China Bio-Weapon has done its intended job, with help from hate-filled partisan politicians who lust for control and power, and a media addicted to panic porn ratings. China’s goal was to damage and shake the worldwide economic structure, and more specifically, America’s. The malleable walked right into it.
You are 100% correct!
You cannot factor in active cases into the survival rate.
What is the justification for shutting down businesses and quarantining people?
200,000+ people have died. Many suffered weeks in a hospital, even if they lived. Others are dealing with long term health consequences.
Scientists and doctors need time to figure how this virus transmits, how it affects the body, and how best to treat people who have it. If you don’t control it, the economy suffers, either way. People have a right to relative safety. That right was being violated by the virus and our unpreparedness for it (that is not a jab at Trump by the way, a lot of the problems were bigger than him). Quarantines were the only option we had at the time and are still unfortunately our best defense until we have a vaccine (which may or may not work well).
Correctomundo
Percents and ratios are different you idiot. .1% = .001. .054 is 54 times deadlier than the flu.
This story is false, and you should retract it.
“The scenarios are intended to advance public health preparedness and planning. They are not predictions or estimates of the expected impact of COVID-19.”
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scenarios.html#table-1
CDC – “The scenarios are intended to advance public health preparedness and planning.” This is news worthy.
My greatest concern is the numerous reports, including from the CDC, that patients who die WITH the virus are counted as having died FROM the virus. This means if a 22 year old comes in with massive trauma from a motorcycle accident and dies in the ER from his injuries, and tests positive for COVID, he will be shown as having died from COVID.
With this reporting protocol, how can we ever know the true number of patients who die FROM the virus?
Bingo!
And on what facts do you base your opinion?
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/how-covid-19-deaths-are-counted1/
https://www.heartland.org/news-opinion/news/is-the-official-covid-19-death-toll-accurate
I can do that too common sense. Smh.