Partisan Trends in Florida Early Voting Resemble 2016

With one day left in early voting, the Republican and Democrat make-up of those that have voted appears remarkably similar to the partisan make-up in 2016.

After early voting in 2016, Democrats had a 1.5% edge over Republicans, 39.8% – 38.3%. This translated into a 96,450 vote advantage, 2,629,812 to 2,533,362.

In 2020, Democrats built an early lead in voting by mail. On October 21st, Democrats had a 486,797 vote advantage. However, as the table below shows, Republicans have cut into the advantage.

With one day left in early voting, the Democrats have a 1.1% edge over Republicans, 39.2%-38.1%. This translates to a 94,905 vote advantage, 3,410,789 to 3,315,884.

Tomorrow morning we will know the official results from Sunday’s voting and the impact of the “Souls to the Polls” vote mobilization efforts organized by the African-American community. Will Democrats meet or surpass their early voting advantage in 2016?