A comparison of Tallahassee public safety statistics before and after the COVID pandemic reveal that violent crime has increased while arrests are down.
In addition, data shows that traffic violations decreased during the COVID pandemic but has returned to pre-COVID levels.
Is there a connection between decreased traffic enforcement and the increase in violent crime and the decline in arrests?
First the numbers.
Violent Crime
The chart below shows that before the onset of the COVID pandemic the number of violent crimes as reported by the City of Tallahassee had leveled off at approximately 1,300 incidents per year from 2017 to 2019.
However, the number of violent crime incidents increased in 2020 and again in 2021 for a cumulative increase of approximately 21%.
Arrests
The chart below shows that before the onset of the COVID pandemic the number of annual arrests was 5,500 and 6,500 in 2017, 2018 & 2019.
During 2020 the number of arrests fell approximately 50% to 3,145. In 2021 the number of arrests increased slightly to 3,459, but are still significantly down from the pre-COVID numbers.
Traffic Violations
The chart below shows that before the onset of the COVID pandemic the number of traffic violations issued was between 9,500 and 11,500 in 2017, 2018 & 2019.
During 2020 the number of traffic violations fell approximately 50% to 5,663. In 2021 the number of traffic violations fell again to 5,352.
Analysis
A study by the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration in July 2013 details a number of studies that link traffic enforcement `to reducing vehicle collisions and preventing non-traffic-related crime.
For example, one of the studies about traffic enforcement and crime was funded by the National Institute of Justice in Kansas City, Missouri (Sherman, Shaw, & Rogan, (1995).
The Kansas City Gun Experiment was designed to evaluate a law enforcement strategy to reduce gun violence, drive by shootings, and homicides in a patrol beat where the homicide rate was 20 times higher than the national average. For 29 weeks, from July 7, 1992, to January 27, 1993, the Kansas City Police Department officers assigned to the project
focused on gun detection through aggressive patrol, primarily vehicle stops.
The results of the study indicted that gun seizures by police in the target area increased by more than 65 percent, while gun crimes declined in the target area by 49 percent. Also, drive-by shootings dropped from 7 to 1 in the target area, doubled from 6 to 12 in the
comparison area.
More recently a report by the Manhattan Institute in 2021 related to law enforcement policy in New York City concluded that “experience during the pandemic has revealed that removing police from traffic enforcement leads to more dangerous streets, more disorder, and more crime.”
These findings raise several questions related to Tallahassee.
Why is traffic enforcement down in Tallahassee? Is it a manpower issue or a strategy change?
Also, is the reduction in traffic enforcement related to the increase in violent crime?
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OMG Traffic Violations are down because TPD does not enforce the the traffic laws! Every time I get on the roads here in Tallahassee ( Apch ParkWay, N & S Monroe st and Tenn st. I see at least 10/15 traffic violations. Not a cop in sight!
Tallahassee needs a traffic division ASAP !
traffic violations….are they still policing this…seems like anything goes.
Have I offended the TR gods in some way? Beginning a couple of weeks ago all of my posts have been moderated and less than half have made their way into the discussion.
If there have been rules violations somewhere how about letting me know what they are?
Traffic violations will increase now that the college kids are back in town. Accidents and violations due to texting while driving, general recklessness, and bang-n-bolts will begin to rise.
As for violent crimes… that will continue to rise so long as the Democrats are in charge.
As always, “You can never solve a problem you refuse to recognize”
I’ve noted a sharp uptick in the number of vehicles running red light. A few are egregious, but most are just crowding the light. It used to aggravate me when I’d see someone do that, but I’ve mellowed and almost agree with them. As long as the traffic lights are timed to be a nuisance, people will continue to crowd the lights more and more until somebody gets killed. Unfortunately, I don’t expect even that to have an impact on light timing.
And I do wonder what it takes for a traffic citation if neither an accident nor radar gun are involved. Just yesterday I watched a vehicle in the right-hand lane of Bradford road make a left turn onto Thomasville road, squeezing the guy that was making the legal left turn. A TPD patrol car was approaching the intersection from behind these two vehicles and witnessed it, but just carried on without approaching the offender.
The drivers are better than they used to be… maybe because the cars are better with more safety features and alerts.
I believe the violent crime being up is on the mayor as I have not seen this issue on his radar screen. That is a fair assessment in my opinion.
Anecdotally I see a LOT more reckless driving, less police cars, and less traffic stops. Coincidence?
Violent Crime up, way up. Yet we still get a horrible slate of candidates.
Do you want the Liberal Democrats or the Progressive Socialists?
(I wonder if the police have been instructed by city staff to tone down their policing, fewer traffic stops, etc.)