Leon County voters, especially Tallahassee residents, have received a number of political texts and pieces of mail promoting a negative message about their opponents.
There are two questions to ask regarding the “smear” messages being sent out: one, does negative campaigning influence the likelihood of voting in an election; and two, does it gain votes for the candidate going negative.
Negative campaigning took an upswing when Jeremy Matlow entered the political arena in 2018. That year 51.4% of the Democratic voters cast a ballot in the August primary. The following primary in 2020 saw the Democratic percent turnout dropped to 43.0%. When Matlow went hard against David Bellamy in his re-election effort in 2022, the Democratic turnout fell to 39.3%.
Another result from this negativity is that Democratic voter registration shrunk by 8,288 votes between 2020 and 2022 and by 2024 there was a total of 19,809 fewer Democrats than there were in 2020.
With such a contraction in number of Democratic voters one would think the turnout percentage would go up because there would be fewer Democrats and the remaining diehard Democrats would vote anyway. But that is not what is happening. My estimate for turnout in Leon County for the August 20th primary is 37.7%. It could be marginally higher or lower based on factors not yet known.
The bottom line is running negative campaigns during the election seasons, making frequent corruption charges, filing complaints with law enforcement against fellow elected officials, stating there a secret cabal running the city, and going negative year round depresses voter interest and turnout. If that was Matlow’s goal, then he has succeeded in achieving it.
The second question regards whether negative campaigning influence voters in your direction or against. It depends how you go negative. Can you do it in a way that makes people smile, in which case you may have a winning approach. Or do you make people frown, in which case expect either a voter backlash or a lower voter turnout.
Studies show this inter-party negativity depresses turnout by independent voters, younger voters, uninterested voters, and general election only voters. In short, it appears the negativity actually loses votes for the Democratic candidates more so than for Republican candidates.
Outside groups are much more prone to go negative. Candidates now use these independent outside groups to smear their opponents. We have seen a rise in this these dark-money committees since Matlow’s election in 2018.
Negative advertisements create more cynicism among residents about the electoral process and about their local government. On average it appears to decrease the intent to vote by five percentage points.
During the twenty years I served as Chair of the Leon County Democratic you would be unable to find a negative nasty piece in any of the advertisements the Party mailed, put up on radio, distributed door-to-door, or included in our phone scripts. That approach resulted in much higher turnouts among Democratic voters because our messages were educational, motivational, and positive.
Jon M. Ausman is the longest serving Chair of the Leon County Democratic Party in Leon County’s history (April 1980 to January 2000). He can be reached at 850-321-7799 or at ausman@embarqmail.com
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Sadly, negative and attack campaigns appear to be effective… if they weren’t, they would stop. We hear the cry to cut out the negative campaigns and attack ads every cycle, and even the call to dial down/back the violent rhetoric, et al… but that only lasts about 3-4 hours at best.
The trouble is, we all need to hear about the candidate’s platform and ideas to address the real challenges we all face on a day-to-day basis… but we also need to know a candidate’s weaknesses and downsides so that we can make the best decision. It’s a tough balance but it can be done, and in a more respectable and substantive manner.
The most unfortunate part about it all is that professional politicians, campaign managers, and political consultants have figured out that they can also win by virtue of electorate apathy, ignorance, and by exploiting manufactured hatred… to wit: If I can win by simply convincing you to hate my opponent, then I don’t have to bother with trying to convince you that I’m the better choice based on my positions.
You see, in today’s hyper-divided politics (by design mind you), it’s easier to convince you that my opponent sucks than it is to convince you that I don’t.
Back in 2016 When I first ran for County Commissioner At Large Group 1, I ran against Mary Ann Lindley and we had the cleanest Campaign of everyone. No Mud Slinging. I just focused on what I wanted to do. I am running again and I refuse to Sling Mud, I’d rather take the time to tell what I want to get done.
You are spot on, Jon! Thank you for bringing this to light. Your data is sad, but not surprising. There is enough negativity in this city/county – I wish these politicians would focus on their own campaign and policies instead of bashing those of others. Tell the voters what YOU plan to do to make Tallahassee better. Just yesterday, Matlow was “name calling” a current school board member and he’s not even running for school board!! Go wave sign in support of your favorite candidate instead of taking another cheap shot while sitting behind your keyboard.
To make matters worse – I received a text message from a current city commissioner that started with “I can’t believe I have to vote for a Democrat?” She went on to state why she is the better Democrat while taking a dig or 2 at her opponent!! Does she think this makes her more appealing to voters? Who else received that message? Sadly, this sort of “campaigning” has hit an all time low!
Jon Ausman? Somone call up old Dan Winchester
Sometimes negativity is true and Matlow/Porter had more than their fair share against them. Erwin Jackson had criticisms and he made them plain!
What happens when the negative press is actually true, not just negative spin.
The Cox campaign is getting flack from Democrats for supposedly being the source of a Jeff Burlew piece on her opponent, Jeremy Rogers. But nothing in the article is untrue. The article didn’t go far enough.
It is true that Rogers suffers from four mental illnesses, one of which allegedly rendered him unable to complete his work in a timely manner (four weeks for reports by him versus two weeks by his coworkers). This was due to PTSD that supposedly developed as a result of his mother’s horrible death. But even before that, he suffered from bipolar disorder, major depressive disorder and anxiety.
He received a General Discharge from the Navy due to his involvement in a hazing incident – it is not known if he was the victim or the perpetrator. His service was cut short to 17 months.
It is a fact that he defaulted on a credit card, repeatedly refinances his home while failing to pay down the principal, has had liens on his property due to his failure to pay his HOA assessments. All of these are in the public record. He also had a paternity suit against him.
There is a big difference between campaigns that create unsubstantiated rumors and spread lies. In this particular case, every negative thing said about the candidate is true.
I have a hard time calling the spreading of TRUTH, negative campaigning. But now that it is hitting the Democratic Party, their response is more negativity, unsubstantiated statements, or just calling the opposition “weird”.