FSU Preview: Florida State versus North Carolina

Saturday at Doak the Seminoles will face off with the North Carolina Tar Heels at 3:30 on the ACC Network.

North Carolina is 4-4 on the season with wins against Minnesota, Charlotte, North Carolina Central and Virginia and losses to James Madison, Duke, Pittsburgh and Georgia Tech.

FSU is 17-3-1 versus the Tar Heels all time. UNC coach Mack Brown is 0-11 against his alma mater. The last time these schools played was in 2021, the ‘Noles won 35-25.

Observations from the last game

The offense made some progress in the run game stats mostly due to Luke Kromenhoek’s broken QB sneak play. Left tackle Robert Scott Jr played great while replacing Darius Washington. The defense played better and even held Cam Ward to a season low 206 yards passing but made mistakes in some big moments. Miami converted on 3^rd and 20+ twice. Linebacker Omar Graham has improved tremendously since week 1 and was making plays all game, picking up a sack and a pass break up.

Florida State offense versus North Carolina defense

It’s looking like Brock Glenn is going to start with Kromenhoek coming off the bench. The Carolina defense ranks 90^th in the FBS in yards per play given up on the season (5.8) but had a dominant performance against Virginia.

UNC racked up 10 sacks, forced 3 turnovers and had a fumble recovery for a touchdown. FSU needs to protect the ball and get some positive plays on first down to stay out long third down situations. The defense has been very inconsistent so the outcome of the game might depend on which Tar Heel defensive unit shows up.

Players to watch are defensive tackle Jahvaree Ritzie (6 sacks) and linebackers Antavious Lane (54 tackles) and Amare Campbell (50 tackles and 4 sacks).

Florida State defense versus North Carolina offense

The Seminole defense showed a good amount of improvement against one of the best offenses in the country. Especially given the struggles against mobile QBs. They need to keep it going against UNC quarterback Jacolby Criswell (1,660 yards passing, 154 yards rushing and 12 total touchdowns).

Having to deal with Criswell will be half the battle as the Carolina offense features one of the best running backs in the nation, Omarion Hampton. Hampton has rushed for 1,006 yards and 9 touchdowns. He’s a receiving threat as well with 172 yards. Other receiving options are the tight ends Bryson Nesbitt and John Copenhaver (3 TDS each).

Slowing down Hampton is the biggest priority for the FSU defense, so d-lineman Josh Farmer and Darrell Jackson need to have big games.

Special Teams

Advantage: Heavy Florida State

Prediction

UNC will have a couple of breakdowns on defense helping the Seminole put some points on the board. Special teams should also be a big factor in the game. I expect a blocked kick or long return to tilt the game in Florida State’s favor.

Florida State 21 North Carolina 19.