Gas Prices Could Dip in 2025

By Jim Turner, The News Service of Florida

TALLAHASSEE — Florida motorists could see a slight decrease in gasoline costs in the coming year despite fuel markets facing continued geopolitical tensions, potential tariffs and changes in U.S. energy policies, according to a report issued Monday.

In an annual outlook, Boston-based GasBuddy forecast that the price of a gallon of gas nationally will average $3.22 in 2025. Meanwhile, the average is expected to be from $3.12 a gallon to $3.51 in Florida. That is slightly lower than the forecast for 2024 of $3.19 a gallon to $3.51 a gallon.

GasBuddy said the average price nationally in 2024 was $3.33 a gallon, a nickel lower than what it had projected a year ago.

The AAA auto club offers a slightly different national average this year of $3.35 a gallon, 4 cents higher than the average in Florida. The average price of a gallon of regular unleaded in Florida was $3.04 on Tuesday, according to AAA.

“While declining fuel prices in 2025 will provide welcome relief to American drivers and businesses, emerging risks could lead to increased volatility,” Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, said in a prepared statement. “Geopolitical uncertainties, potential disruptions from extreme weather, and policy shifts under the new (federal) administration could create challenges for fuel markets. Despite this, expanding global refining capacity and moderating demand are expected to support lower prices for most of the year.”

Pump prices are expected to gradually increase in the late spring and early summer, as refineries start to return to a more-expensive summer blend of fuel. They are expected to dip later in the year.

GasBuddy looks at issues such as supply and demand changes, changes in the federal government, fiscal policy that can affect inflation and timing of interest-rate cuts.

But the report pointed to factors that could affect the forecast, including supply-chain disruptions caused by tensions in the Middle East, sanctions on Russian energy exports, increased energy demands in Asia and policies related to President-elect Donald Trump returning to the White House.

“(Trump’s) campaign promises to scale back environmental regulations and promote domestic fossil fuel production could accelerate drilling and oil output,” the report said. “At the same time, potential shifts in foreign policy — such as his expressed skepticism of NATO and confrontational rhetoric toward allies and trade partners — introduce risks of destabilizing global markets.”

The report also said that Trump’s Cabinet, “likely to prioritize fossil fuels over renewable energy, marks a stark departure from the Biden administration’s focus on energy transition policies. Federal incentives for renewable energy, EVs (electric vehicles), and clean technologies could see significant rollbacks, slowing the pace of decarbonization efforts.”

The forecast reflects how prices vary across the country.

The West Coast typically sees higher prices, at least in part because gasoline is produced at a small number of dominant refineries. Meanwhile, areas of the Northeast compete with Europe in the international market.

People in Florida and other parts of the Southeast receive gas supplied by major pipelines connecting to Gulf of Mexico-based refineries.

Among states, California has the highest projected average price in 2025 from $4.50 to $5.07 a gallon, according to the report. Mississippi has the lowest projected average price, from $2.69 to $3.03 a gallon. Texas is at $2.76 to $3.10, New York is at $3.22 to $3.63, and Illinois is at $3.42 to $3.84.