January Revenue Falls Short of Forecast

By The News Service of Florida

State general revenue collections for January fell just short of expectations, according to a report from state economists released Tuesday.

The report from the Office of Economic and Demographic Research showed the state collected $4.26 billion in net general revenue in January, $18.9 million or 0.4 percent under the amount forecast, a difference considered “well within the range the (General Revenue Estimating) Conference typically attributes to noise.”

The monthly figures were the first to incorporate updates made to general-revenue tax collections by the conference on January 23.

At the time, state economists increased the revenue projection for fiscal year 2025-2026, which ends June 30, by $502.5 million and the 2026-2027 projection by $70 million. The economists at the time noted the “forecasting environment is generally stable,” but there was an “elevated” uncertainty on the economic outlook “from this point forward.”

The state forecast is intended to help lawmakers make budget decisions. General revenue is closely watched because it plays a major role in funding education, health and prison programs.

In the January figures, sales tax collections came in at $3.56 billion, or $5.2 million under the forecast.

The $179.4 million in corporate income taxes was $3.2 million under the forecast. And earnings on state investments totaled $105.8 million for the month, $14 million below the forecast.

Meanwhile, documentary stamp taxes on real estate transactions came in at $140.4 million for the month, $33.6 million over the forecast.