The global population is set to peak at 10.3 billion and begin declining by 2084, roughly two decades earlier than estimates from two years ago, according to the United Nations biennial population report.
Analysts attribute the earlier peak to a broad decline in fertility rates, the number of children a woman will birth on average. Worldwide, that figure has dropped from 3.5 to 2.5 in three decades and was closer to seven prior to the Industrial Revolution. Experts say women’s empowerment, increased rate of successful births, and rising child rearing costs have contributed to dropping fertility rates (see charts).
Demographers theorize developed countries require a fertility rate of 2.1 children per woman to keep the population constant. More than half of all countries have a rate below 2.1, including much of Europe, the US, Japan, China, and Russia (see map).
Demographic shifts have significant effects on resources, public revenues, and income security—learn more here.
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@ Osbert… are you ok? Just checking.
As for your comments/predictions… they are interesting. We often waiver on the line of possibility versus probability. Given the worldwide division and chaos, it’s not inconceivable that your numbers and the cause of said are at the very least, possible.
As for my comment – more of a ponderance really – on the impact of abortion on the world population and growth potential in numbers… to dismiss the reality – or at the very least refuse the consideration – is foolish and demonstrates a closed mind to all the potential scientific impacts on the root topic.
Healthy discussion = BAD
but abortion comments are = OKAY
As with MOST “predictions”, this report will also be wrong. The coming nuclear war and subsequent famine will reduce the worldwide human population back to early 1970’s numbers of 2B or worse. Even if those events never occur, you also have to take into account the reduction of population or what is known as population collapse. If humans do not replace themself, at the least, we could also cease to exist. 1:1.1 is a good number with slow steady growth. Where 1 in 10 couples have 3 kids instead of 2. BUT – given a proper pandemic, the entirety of the human race could be wiped out in a matter of 2 weeks. SO many ways this could all go. But, as I said, this report will also be wrong.
Edward: You may be right, but there is also over 3.5 million births. Reading news articles, it would seem that the numbers would be reversed.
Not trying to start anything. But I do wonder how unfettered abortion impacts these numbers here in the US. How many babies were aborted in the US last year alone, like 1-million+?
Oh, I’m thinking with all the crap going on in the World, I am betting it will peek sooner and then start declining.