December Revenue Misses Forecast

By The News Service of Florida

State general revenue collections fell just short of expectations in December primarily because of corporate income tax refunds.

The Legislature’s Office of Economic & Demographic Research reported last week that Florida collected about $4.393 billion in net general revenue in December, $6.5 million or 0.1 percent under an amount forecast in August.

While most sectors showed gains for the month, the report attributed the loss “almost exclusively” to corporate income tax refunds.

“For the month, refunds were $97.8 million above the estimate,” the report stated. “This was a result of the Department of Revenue’s efforts to clear up a backlog of corporate income tax refunds.”

Other factors playing into the latest monthly report continue to be “subpar” personal savings and inflation, under the consumer price index, standing at 2.7 percent for the 12 months ending in December.

Still, the state collected $3.057 billion in sales taxes, or $6.7 million more than expected in December. Earnings on state investments came in at $136.1 million, or $17.1 million more than forecast. Documentary stamp taxes on real estate transactions brought in $125.6 million in December, $800,000 more than forecast, and Indian gaming accounted for $89.6 million for the month, $14.1 million over the prediction.

The state forecast intended to help lawmakers make budget decisions was updated on Jan. 23, when state economists sitting as the Revenue Estimating Conference added $502.5 million to the 2025-2026 fiscal year projection and increased the 2026-2027 projection by $70 million.

General revenue is closely watched because it plays a major role in funding education, health and prison programs.