Note: The original percentage revision (105%) published was changed using a more conservative calculation method.
Late last year the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released data that showed that Tallahassee had one of the fastest growing Growth Domestic Product’s (GDP) in the state of Florida in 2016 with a growth rate of 4.3%. This growth was ranked 5th in the state when compared to the 22 Florida MSA’s.
When the numbers were released, TR wrote about the controversy surrounding the numbers and how local government officials could not explain what was driving the sudden growth. The growth in 2015 was a meager 0.5%.
Now it is clear why these officials could not explain the magnitude of the growth – it never happened.
This week the BEA released the revised numbers for 2016 and these numbers show that GDP growth for the Tallahassee MSA was revised down from 4.3% to 2.1%, a 52% drop. This revision changes the 2016 GDP growth ranking in the state of Florida from 5th to 12th.
Growth rates for other MSA’s in Florida were also revised, but the fall of the Tallahassee MSA in the state ranking shows few, if any, were revised as much the Tallahassee MSA.
When the 2016 numbers were released last year, the BEA indicated that the numbers were preliminary. However, this did not stop local officials from bragging about a number they could not explain.
Here are some tweets:
From the Mayor’s Office twitter account: “The numbers don’t lie, folks! #Tallahassee has the fastest growing #economy per capita in #Florida! ”
From the OEV’s twitter account: “Tallahassee metro area has the fastest growing economy per capita in the state.”
From the City of Tallahassee retreat agenda: “the Tallahassee metropolitan statistical area (MSA) is the fastest growing economy (per capita) in the State of Florida.”
Also, the Andrew Gillum campaign for governor of Florida is using the “fastest growing economy” statement in their messaging. The tweet below is from the Gillum campaign’s communications director, Geoff Burgan.
In addition to the revisions released this week, the BEA issued preliminary GDP growth numbers for 2017. The numbers show that the Tallahassee MSA growth in GDP was 3.1% which was tied for 5th when compared to the other 22 MSA’s. See chart below.
Revisions for 2017 will be released next year.