A country comparison of death rates per million citizens attributed to COVID-19 shows why elected leaders across the globe find themselves in very different situations.
The graph below shows the death rate per million citizens for five countries starting at Day 1. Day 1 is when the number of cases reported for each country was in the range of 1,500-2,000.
Day 1 was March 1st for Italy, March 10th for France and Germany, March 12th for the US and March 16th for the United Kingdom.
The graph shows three different trends for the five countries.
The first trend includes the United Kingdom and Italy. United Kingdom is 15 days behind Italy and is tracking Italy’s death rate per capita very closely. For example, at Day 8, Italy was at 6 deaths per million and the United Kingdom was at 5 deaths per million.
The latest information for Italy, Day 23, shows a death rate of 100 deaths per million. With the United Kingdom tracking this trend, this might explain the recent call to shelter in place in the United Kingdom.
The second trend is related to France. At Day 8 the death rate in France was 2.6 deaths per million citizens. Approximately half of the Italy death rate at Day 8.
The last trend is related to the US and Germany. At Day 8, both the US and Germany have death rates below 1.0.
From Day 8 to Day 12, the death rates have increased for all countries, but as the graph shows, US and Germany are on a different trend line.
At Day 12 the US death rate is 1.75 deaths per million citizens. In Italy at Day 12, the death rate was 16.77 deaths per million residents.
These numbers highlight the different circumstance facing leaders around the world as they grapple with what to do next.
Now just imagine the different circumstance that must be present in the fifty different states across the US. And also within the states. For example, both New York and Florida are large states that are not impacted by the virus uniformly.
While the current focus is on preparing hospitals to deal with the inevitable rise in cases, it makes sense that the death rate numbers will play a role in the future decisions by elected leaders. Leaders who will soon have to balance fighting COVID-19 and restoring the national economy.
*Note- for comparison purposes, the H1N1 pandemic killed an estimated 12,469 people in the US from April 2009 to April 2010. This translates to 40 deaths per million US citizens. Also, 60 million US citizens were infected by the H1N1 flu.
STFH. Thanks for the detailed analysis. I used to rebuke a colleagues no big deal argument just now. One mistake. Your percentage number for H1N1 is off by two decimal points as you forgot that when covering a decimal to a percentage you have to multiply by 100 (think batting averages.) 12,500/59,000,000 is 0.0002 which is .02%. (Like 1/1 =1 i= 100%). Your point is still valid but given the amount of propaganda we need to be careful with our numbers
H1N1 infected 59,000,000 Americans and killed 12,500. That’s .0002% death rate.
Let’s take that same 59M number (which is low — most developed countries, CA and NY are expecting 60% of their population to get it).
COVID-19 and say only 1% of the people will die (most estimates are in the 2-7%). That’s 590,000 dead.
50% of the US population, at a 1% death rate, is 1,750,000 deaths. 1% is low, especially when hospitals get run over (which I’d happening around the country already).
Swine Flu had a replication rate along with the seasonal flu around 1.3. That means for every infected person, ten generations later, or 1.3!, about 14 people will be infected from that chain.
SARS-CoV-2 has an accepted replication rate of about 2.6 (which is probably low). 2.6! equals 14,000 infected every time it doubles. NYC is doubling every 2 days. The rest of the country, about 5-6 days.
It also is airborne (Ebola and other viruses are droplet), asymptomatic up to 3 weeks and infectious during that time (typically Flu and other viruses are only infections a day before you are sick thru a few days after). And lives on surfaces for days.
By the way Snidely, Iran has a runaway infection that may kill millions alone there. And at least 10,000,000 cell phones were taken offline in China since Jan. The government forces you to have a phone, this isn’t people who just didn’t pay a bill. That’s how they track you.
The 5th of 8 whistleblower doctors in China just died a few days ago. Young, healthy people, too. Entire families including kids were wiped out.
This ain’t nothing to play with. And the cavalier attitude in FL will kill thousands, tens of thousands more.
Total hype with a load of BS
That is a very well thought out reply, James. Do tell, what are your thoughts regarding exponential vs linear transmission? Any difference?
Look, here is Trump like two weeks ago talking about how we had 250 cases.
Now we have over 50K!
You sound like you have a nuanced view of infectious disease and epidemiology, do you think you would be able to into more detail about the ‘total hype’ and ‘load of BS’? The people of Tallahassee need to hear the truth!
I’ve noticed that, not just in this article, but in all media there is little to nothing reported on COVID-19 being even a thing in the Arab, Islam, Muslim nations of the world…what’s up with that?
Any opinions why the country was not shut down during the H1N1 pandemic? I dont recall a single discussion from politicians or the media about the need for a lockdown to save lives.
H1N1 was linearly transmissible, but COVID is exponentially transmissible. God, this has been discussed like a zillion times in reliable news. Basically you get a doubling of infections every four or five days.
Remember when Trump told us we ‘had’ 240 cases? It was like 2 weeks ago.
Now we have 52K! Does that sound like how H1N1 went around the country?
It wasn’t shut down because they were very different diseases, both being flu, but differing widely in the ability to infect large numbers of people rapidly.
Were you able to google videos of hallways filled with people in ventilators during H1N1? Do you think that during H1N1 Italy was having 500+ people die a day at any time? Did New York recall 1000 doctors and nurses from retirement to have to deal with H1N1?
Also, people who suffer severe complications from COVID19 often needs ten days (or more) in ICU. Does that sound like H1N1 to you?
I know the narrative that this is all a big scam seems very seductive, or a plot by the media or the new world order, but open your eyes and brain for one second.