Florida, New York COVID-19 Deaths Take a Different Path. But Why?

Florida, New York COVID-19 Deaths Take a Different Path. But Why?

Comparing the deaths over the last two weeks in New York and Florida from the coronavirus show very different trends (See graph below). The data shows that ten days into the crisis for both states, New York reported 385 deaths while Florida reported 71 deaths.

This trend has mostly been overlooked in media reports that have hypothesized that Florida might be the next epicenter for the coronavirus.

Why does this difference exist?

The Data

The graph below compares the total number of deaths for each state beginning at Day 1. Day 1 is the day when the 12th death was reported for each state. For New York the 12th death was reported on March 17th and for Florida this day was March 21st.

Therefore, there is a four day lag in the comparison. Days 11, 12, 13, & 14 are in the future for Florida and are “in the books” for New York.

The graph shows that after Day 6, the number of deaths in New York began to increase at a much higher rate than in Florida. This trend has continued up to Day 10.

At Day 10, highlighted on the graph below, New York reported more than 5 times the deaths than were reported in Florida after the same number of “Days” since the 12th death for each state. New York reported 385 deaths while Florida reported 71 deaths.

Why is this happening in two states that have roughly the same population?

The Analysis

An article written by Brian Rosenthal and published on March 23rd in the New York Times, provided a rationale for the difference in these death trends.

The article, titled “Density is New York City’s ‘Enemy’ in the Coronavirus Fight”, provided evidence that indicates that population density and temperature could be the driving factors in the spread of the coronavirus.

Dr. Steven Goodman, an epidemiologist at Stanford University, told Rosenthal that “Density is really an enemy in a situation like this. With large population centers, where people are interacting with more people all of the time, that’s where it’s going to spread the fastest.”

Consider this.

New York City, the current epicenter of the coronavirus, has an a population of approximately 9 million and a population density of 28,000 people per square mile.

The current hot spot in Florida is Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach counties. These three counties have a combined population density of 1,155 people per square mile, approximately 4% of the population density of New York City.

But here is the stat that indicates that population density may be a factor in explaining the difference between New York and Florida.

The deaths per million of people in Palm Beach, Broward and Miami-Dade at Day 10 was 4.3. In New York City the deaths per million at Day 10 was 42.3 or 10 times higher than the three Florida counties.

In addition, the article indicates that another factoring impacting how the coronavirus spreads is weather. The report states that researchers from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology found that “regions with average temperatures above 64.4 degrees Fahrenheit account for fewer than 6 percent of global cases so far.”

The average temperature in Florida is 71.8 and in New York the average temperature is 48.2.

The Future

At this point in the coronavirus crisis, a comparison of deaths between New York and Florida show two very different trends. It appears that population density and climate may play a role in these differences.

What does the future hold for Florida? As has been written many times before, no one will really know until more information becomes available.

So we all wait for answers to these questions:

Will population density and climate factors impact the total number of deaths between New York and Florida? Will these factors continue to give Florida more time to “flatten the curve?” Or, will the impact of these factors just delay the inevitable appearance of the New York trend in Florida?

50 Responses to "Florida, New York COVID-19 Deaths Take a Different Path. But Why?"

  1. The sad thing about this is that FL will now go past NY in just 3 more days. The difference is having a governor that is Trump’s sheep who cares only to please him then save the people of his state. I did not think this would happen and now COVID is making him eat his own words. Sad

  2. Yeah how about an updated article and chart. You can call it “Leader with a brain in NY vs delusional brainless morons in FL”

  3. New York has subways and is insanely congested. This explains why we should ban public transportation, remove CAFE standards to allow the lower cost of cars so everyone can drive them self and avoid COVID and any future viruses.

  4. I am as confused about covid-19 as I was in Feb and March. There does not seem to be any cogent explanation by political diehards whether Repubs or Democrats. This is indeed a unique position for a virus which makes me wonder about the shutdown the election and so many factors.

  5. This data is no longer accurate. FL is following the same trajectory per data published today for days 11-15. See the Article titled: “Coronavirus Florida Update: Florida has 7,773 confirmed COVID-19 cases on Wednesday” Florida jumped from 71 deaths to 100+ almost overnight.

  6. The Democrats need to thank Nancy Pelosi, Chuck Schumer, Nadler, and Adam Pencil Neck Schiff for turning the country upside down and focusing on nonsense and partisan politics instead of concentrating on humanity and the needs of their constituents and the needs for the American people.

    We crown these buffoons as the poster crackpots for this demise that in spite of their orchestrated shenanigans that ultimately failed big time the Republicans and the nonpartisan American people will restore America even better than before.

    Thank you President Trump and Governor Ron DeSantis and everyone who is working for Humanity.

  7. Do your own homework. This from Dr. Jack Kruse:

    Why are so many people getting C19?

    They live a life that creates a low redox state.

    Oh so you still think sunglasses, clothing, and sunscreen are good modern human ideas that don’t affect the SCN or peripheral clocks in your cells? Consider nature’s lessons carefully. What does full spectrum sunlight destroy naturally? UVA and B light naturally lowers adrenalin (the stress hormone of the sympathetic nervous system) while its photons re-zip collagen that cortisol release causes at 4AM that wakes us up by allowing water flows to occur between glial cells and neurons via the aquaporin 4 gates in the brain. AM sunrise light has no UVA or UVB present initially. It has blue, green, and red present. It has more blue than any other part of the spectrum and this is stimulatory to waking us up. Naturally, UVA light shows up later in the AM, depending upon your location in latitude, and this frequency of UVA light acts to begin to re-zip the collagen in our skin and eyes. That initial blue light stimulus from the sun’s rhttps://mail.kitcs.com/owa/auth/logon.aspx?replaceCurrent=1&url=https%3a%2f%2fmail.kitcs.com%2fowahttps://mail.kitcs.com/owa/auth/logon.aspx?replaceCurrent=1&url=https%3a%2f%2fmail.kitcs.com%2fowaise is used to unwind our collagen to increase water flows to stretch the interspaces in neurons to wake our body and mind up at dawn from sleep. The aquaporin 4 gates are what are destroyed in Multiple sclerosis, which is another autoimmune condition.
    When we are missing UV and/or IR light for any reason, these photoelectric and photochemical are not made. When full spectrum sunlight is absent in someone who is chronically stressed for any reason, sleep cannot be induced by the adenosine chemical signal from the hypocretin neurons because the incident light signal of blue blocks it. What else blocks cellular regeneration by circadian de-coupling? Lack of full spectrum solar exposure is the most common reason and most overlooked issue in all of medicine these days. Proper ocular melatonin cycle requires that these two frequencies (UV/IR) of light be present to stimulate the regeneration processes in the eye during daytime. It also requires ABSENCE of blue 400-465nm at sunset!!!! When these things are off the result always = INFLAMMATION = too many protons and/or not enough electrons at the mitochondrial cellular level. If you think about your childhood, when you spent the day at the park of the beach, you might remember how easy it was to fall asleep and get a sunburn. The reason is simple, sunlight induces sleep because the regeneration pathways that use melanopsin need daylight to regenerate. When you did fall asleep, the redness of your skin did not come from the thermal burn, but it was from the increased blood flow due to the release of nitric oxide that acted to bring the arterioles of the dermis layers to the surface. This is a natural photochemical change induced by sunlight to allow the skin to absorb the UVA and UVB light at the surface. UVA and UVB light does not penetrate deep. To absorb the UV light we need the circulatory system to come from the dermis because UV light does not penetrate skin more than a millimeter. The NO engorges and vasodilates the arterioles containing the RBC’s. The RBC’s are filled with hemoglobin and porphyrins that absorb both UV and IR frequencies. Form meets function photoelectrically. The sunburn is really an absorption of too much thermal IR energy. It is a time phenomena not a sun phenomena based upon your sun callus and skin type. Deep sunburns can result from several factors: excessive sun, or thin skin, thick skin, or a poor adaptation to seasonal light due to chronic use of UV blocking makeup, clothing, or sunblock use in strong light cycles. Today we bury the sun and get diseases caused by inflammation. The sun is not the cause of our problems……….no matter the paradigm’s belief.
    Circadian rhythms regulate changes in physiology, allowing organisms to respond to predictable environmental demands varying over a 24 h period. A growing body of evidence supports a key role for the circadian clock in the regulation of immune functions and inflammatory responses, which influence mitochondrial biology and control of your life.

  8. Mia, you are misinformed. COVID 19 has not been around for years; it was first identified in December 2019!

    1. published Oct 2007:


      “The findings that horseshoe bats are the natural reservoir for SARS-CoV-like virus and that civets are the amplification host highlight the importance of wildlife and biosecurity in farms and wet markets, which can serve as the source and amplification centers for emerging infections.”



    2. Tess, Covid viruses have been around for years. Look on the back of your Lysol can. Covid 19 is a form that started in 2019. Please be smart before you post. These type of posts are the ones that keep the sheep scared. We need to get reide of the fear that the media is dumping on people that do not understand.

  9. 1. Miami City’s population density is 12645 people per square mile
    2. Temperature has been shown to be not a factor for contracting COVID 19

    I wish all of you best of luck protecting yourself and loved ones

  10. I went through the polio epidemic. Nobody shut down anything but the pools.

    A virus is a fragment of a dead cell. It is not alive so you can not kill it. Your cells and those of every life form continuously shed dead cels -viruses. A virus is a microscopic ball of protein, saturated by starch, and sprinkled with minerals. Each contains a tiny scrap of dna. The particular dna scrap is how a virus is classified. You are always surrounded by viruses. Normally you are immune to them. There are only two ways to get a viral infection. 1) Be deficient in vitamin C, B, or D. Every living cell must have daily doses of these vitamins or they die. In desperation, when out of them, they will go foraging in viruses to get them. What they salvage from dead cells does not work well so your sinuses leak, your intestines do not absorb iron or digest milk, and your nerves do not transmit as efficiently as normal so you feel depressed, but your cells survive. 2) You subject yourself for hours at a time to a filthy environment. 8 year olds roll around in mud and crud. Adults go to bar, lean over dirty counters munching starchy stuff with no vitamins, breathing air along with others that is being run through a clogged filter. Or they spend three hours in a crowded airplane/ bus. Or they spend hours sleeping in a filthy house. Or they rarely if ever wash their hands and, when they do, they use a watered down soap solution or artificial soap or hand sanitizer, none of which dissolve the sticky glue like viral material that is everywhere that has not been recently cleaned with soap and water. Yes, sexual relations of all kinds do make this worse, but are NOT the main culprits because they do not last long enough. All viral infections have a two week incubation period. All have the same treatment –rest, vitamins, and intensive nursing care. Quarantine other than if people with symptoms DOES NOT AND CAN NOT WORK! Prevention requires drinking orange juice, eating whole wheat bread, getting sunshine, exercising, and CLEANING — your hands, hair, clothes, bedding, and household. You should also lobby to have those laws mandating that bars, restaurants, and theatres be shut down every so many hours to replace air filters and scrub surfaces with soap and water. NOTHING else will work. We have vaccines for polio and mmr. The polio one is long lasting. The mmr one is not. We may find an AIDs vaccine. But your dead cells can fragment any old way, continuously creating new ones and it is not possible to use millions of vaccines for millions of virusesm A “mutated” virus is not like a “mutated” bacteria. When a living cell either fetches a virus or has one forced through its cell wall, that scrap of dna can get incorporated into the cell’s dna and cause the cell to malfunction. This bad DNA gets replicates when the cell replicates. Normally, cells with bad DNA are due to old age — cells can not replicate correctly any more. But THIS kind of cancer can happen at any age if viral infections get so persistent and common that large numbers of cells are damaged. This is all you need to know about viruses unless you are a biologist or med tech specializing in them. From this, you can deduce that prolonged wearing of a mask will make you vulnerable to infection by your own viruses. So masks or sci fi stuff is not how to run a quarantine. Wearing an apron and discarding it to be laundered after contact with infected people does work. A good lpn would be taught this. She is NOT a surgical nurse protecting open body parts from bacteria for a few hours. She is a nurse protecting herself from a buildup of viral material. And blaming people, no matter how much fun and no matter how much they may deserve blame, DOES NOT HELP PEOPLE COOPERATE, which they must do to deal with the sanitation problems at the heart of virus control.

    1. Hey JW, I really liked your explanation, it made sense to me – hope you don’t mind, I copied/pasted and fwd it to friends and family – thank you 🙂

      1. I’m not going to make a long post, but your interpretation of a virus as being “dead”, coming from a dead cell is flawed. The fact that a virus cell cannot reproduce by itself did factor into the debate of whether it is actually “alive” back in the 80s or 90s. It does use another cell to reproduce, but IS very much alive and therefore can be killed. Most useful – reduce/destroy it’s ability to “get into” the other cell. Some of your comment is very interesting and I do thank you for it.

  11. It has to do with the temperature. There are no cases in Africa, Jamaica etc. even Arizona. Mostly where there are huge populations of people and/or in colder weather. Covid 19 has been around for years. This is a known fact.

  12. So lets ad a few things here that ive said from day1 why fla will fare better than NYC/NJ.

    1) HEAT, most objects outside that we normally touch are made of a heat retaining material and they heat up higher than ambient temps, take a car or metal door pulls, 9am last week i shot my car it was at 158°

    2) UV Light, Viruses dont like UV thats why we install them in HVAC systems . NY/NJ Current UV Index is 2.2, S.FLA UV Index is aprox 10.2 and above.

    3) Population Density, Fla is less dense

    4) Humidity, Fla is higher and Viruses dont like that.

    So why do we have 5,000 plus cases.. INDOOR! in one word, i believe thats where the bulk of transfers are happening because the temps are kept below 80° our A/C systems are basically a dehumidifier and this virus thrives on lower temps and lower Humidity…

  13. If you test negative today, you might test positive in a few days. Why test everyone if they show negative today and positive later. Staying away and being vigilant is the answer. None of the news media is going to give us the correct numbers. Just let this run it’s course. It will pass but we all have to do our part. The comment above us right on about how many would gave to contract the virus by August to have that many deaths. People need to put on their common sense hats.

  14. My quick google research comes up with 8.5 million people in NYC and 19 million in the state as a whole. How does the author come up with the statistic that 90% of the state’s population is in the city?

  15. I look forward to adding a new number to our tracking of the virus. I’d like to follow the number of tests being performed by County/ State …
    We need to have more people tested nationwide to better understand what is really happening!!

  16. Because the state of Florida is not testing people as it should. Our own local hospital and health department will only test you if you are over 65. You have traveled to a hotspot. You have been on a cruise or you traveled internationally. You can have all the symptoms but they will not test you. That way, they dont have to report it and DeSantis can keep up his narrative to appease POTUS. –and I am a registered Republican who also happens to be a critical thinker that does not blindly follow along with partisan politics.

  17. Hey, people, you have to understand one thing about the Tallahassee Democrat and WCTV. It is all about selling advertising and clicks, so if they publish these wild-eyed headlines to make things sound worse than they really are, that’s what they want. They are aware of the same stats that James wrote, but do you think they will print them? Not a chance. They want us to stay in a state of fear and panic. That’s what keeps people clicking on the news stories, or at least those who can’t really think for themselves.

    1. Seniors doing what they were told to do. Stay home don’t get around people’s only as necessary helps keep safe

    2. It’s because our piece of shit governor is a Trump stooge and running the deny/deflect/decry playbook. He’s complicit in these deaths

  18. The Tallahassee Democrat as a story stating by August 4th there will be 6,766 deaths in Florida. What a load of crap. To have that happen there would have to be a total of 563,833 cases of CV by August 4th. Think about this there would have to be 140,958 new cases per month for the next 4 months. The current death rate in Florida as of yesterday was 1.2 percent. No way will this happen. Just more hype from the liberals. Think rationally.

    1. Stick with me on this. The prediction game strikes me as similar to a March Madness bracket. You track your other pool participants’ progress and in the end you can see who won (and gets the money) who had very inaccurate predictions (and is both embarrassed and exposed as knowing little about predicting). So it would be great for Tallahassee Reports to track various prognosticators including Tallahassse Dumbocrat weighing in at 6700 Florida deaths, etc. Track CDC and other sources including a mix of scare mongers and real experts. I think some outlets like Dumocrat are merely parroting some model they have picked as scariest. But still this would indicate what they chose to tell their readers as “news”. How about this idea Mr. Stewart? A “Corona Virus Prediction Report Card”?

      1. bummer. I forgot the old version of March Madness. Usually the only basketball I would watch. Anyway, hooray for Tallahassee Reports existing & reporting!

      2. I’m independent.
        After dombocrat fought Trump for 3 years on everything he wanted to do.
        When he agreed to what they wanted, they disagreed and wanted more.
        Did the same with the virus.
        Wanted things that had nothing to do with the virus package, and Trump said no.
        Only for the virus.
        The dumbocrats made a circus out of our government.
        3 years?????
        NY is a can of sardines.
        They had half the deaths in the whole US.
        We learned in FL.
        We’re not close to sardines.
        More spread out.
        Another thing…
        Trump was overwhelmed.
        He delegated it to each state government, state government delegated it to county, delegated it to city and town govt.
        Watching my governor live.
        The only reason, in MY opinion, that we ran out of the week long tests was to receive the 15 minute test.
        We are a hot state.
        I refuse to use a mask or gloves because of the shortage.
        I keep sanitizing my hands as necessary.

        1. Sorry, folks, but no matter how superior it may make you feel to think so, condoms WILL NOT protect against the coronavirus in any meaningful way. Unless, of course, you are able to stretch them over your head and down to your neck, which definitely is not within the recommended use for such devices and presents a very different sort of hazard (unless, of course, you have a very tiny head, I suppose).

    2. As of 21-JULY-20 there have been 5,184 deaths in FL from COVID.
      People are dying at between 90-100 per day.
      There are 15 days before 4-AUG-20 so…. the estimate may turn out to be pretty damm close.
      And your claim of just more hype looks as deluded as you are.

  19. In New York anyone that dies no matter what from is tested. If they are positive they are considered as dying from CV,

  20. But why indeed:
    You already know.
    But you cant say it, and try not to even think about it, because truth is seldom politically correct these days.
    New York and the South Eastern part of Florida down to Key West have one thing in common that nobody wants to discuss.
    That is a promiscuous multi partner un-protected lifestyle we all are aware of being the prime suspect as the potential cause for the wide spread of many and any illness known.
    But SHhhhhhh…we dont want to talk about it.

      1. I’m guessing Snidely read it just fine … he is talking about people excessively being ON TOP OF EACH OTHER – so to speak.

        1. Breaking it down for The Citizen:
          Way Way Way too many in the above mentioned areas of our Great Nation are having scrumpy time with multiple partners on a regular basis without the protection of condoms.
          We saw this back in the 1980’s in the bath houses out in California with the massive killer outbreak of what was known at the time as “The Gay Sickness” later to be named “Aids”
          Look up Rock Hudson on Wikipedia – he was a movie/TV closet gay that got taken out back in the 1980’s by the same promiscuous behaviour thats spreading Covit19 like wildfire up in NYC.
          Same thing with the wildfire Covit19 areas today.
          But again SHhhhhh…its not PC to tell the truth.

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