Coronavirus Model Lowers Florida Death Projections

Coronavirus Model Lowers Florida Death Projections

The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) model, which has become the go-to model for coronavirus projections, has once again lowered the projections for Florida.

The model now projects that 1,363 Floridians will die from the coronavirus, down from the 4,748 deaths projected less than five days ago. Previous to the 4,748 deaths, the model projected 6,766 deaths in Florida.

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The IHME Friday release indicates that Florida’s peak in daily deaths occurred April 2 when 77 deaths were reported.

The April 17th report from the Florida Department of Health shows that a total of 726 people have died from the coronavirus.

The latest model, as in previous reports, projects no hospital beds or ICU beds shortage in Florida.

Get the latest Florida coronavirus trends related to daily cases and daily hospitalizations here.

31 Responses to "Coronavirus Model Lowers Florida Death Projections"

  1. Date of this comment is June 28, 2020. Deaths in FL:3419 Total Cases: 141,075 and increasing exponentially. The original projections were accurate. This is a deadly virus, not a left-wing or right-wing creation. Scientists are very good at projecting these things. Many more Floridians will die in the next few weeks.

    Rich, maybe Miami won’t be underwater totally in 50 years, but it will be uninhabitable due to sea level rise, and all the agricultural land surrounding it will be rendered unusable because of salt water intrusion.

    The models are correct there too.

  2. Lena,

    your statement: “And if anyone REALLY thinks that only 2,000 people will die in a state of over 21,000,000, you have an outstanding lack of math skills and common sense. Maybe 2,000 will be the final total in The Villages.”

    With the latest MODEL projections of 1363 Florida deaths, it looks like YOU, Lena, YOU are the one who lacks basic math skills and most of all common sense. And you should produce the evidence that staying home has been scientifically proven to be the reason the curve was flattened. Go ahead… i’ll wait.

    Meanwhile, I will get on with my life without cowering in fear just because people like you try to shame me into doing so. So YOU stay home behind locked doors away from me, unless you don’t really believe what you have espoused here and are just a plain old hypocrite.

  3. The preventive measures will and have “flattened the curve” thus prevent a panic. These measures will not remove the virus nor save many lives long term.
    We are just kicking the can down the road. Our salvation will be finding an effective Flu Shot. Perhaps some medication to safe some life’s in ICU.
    We can not afford lock down forever. Sweden and other countries recognize that.
    Isolation of the most vulnerable people is an unpleasant alternative.

  4. Rich,

    You are simply wrong.

    The original estimate was in the millions because the assumption was that only 50% of the population would cooperate with containment. That it’s been this good is because of widespread compliance.

    You want to consider the damage just ONE infected person can do, look no farther than Albany, GA where reportedly one person has resulted in 1,300 sick and almost 80 people dead.

    Based on recent insane “protests” stoked by the idiot-in-chief, about 100% of the Trumpies will become infected. By all means, go attend your rallies, infect each other–and then stay away from us.

    And if anyone REALLY thinks that only 2,000 people will die in a state of over 21,000,000, you have an outstanding lack of math skills and common sense. Maybe 2,000 will be the final total in The Villages.

  5. All of you Conservative conspiracy theorist nutjobs: please, please, please, do us all a favor, have a great big party, bump chests and pass around a communal bottle of Coors. And then be sure to lock yourselves away for a few weeks. Maybe you can all hang out at Floyd’s compound… shoot off your assault rifles a little bit. Meanwhile, the rest of us will quietly mourn the 40,000 Americans who have already died from COVID-19.

  6. Just a little off topic:
    I often wonder which of the leftist triad of arrows to get rid of Trump will end up of being their most effective.
    Will it be:
    And further more I predict no one on the left will get the chance to vote for Biden. He’s defective in so many ways. Trump will chew Biden up and spit him out at every debate the DNC allows Biden to participate in.
    The DNC’s gonna have to reach way way up their dirt hole and pull a “New and Improved” stinky candidate out. Don’t know who it’s gonna be but at this time neither does the DNC. Some last minute back benched has been is gonna have to come in and try for a DNC Hail Mary long shot. John Kerry Oprah Michelle AOC … who knows? Hey maybe a deep reach up the DNC dirt hole and bring in Climate Guru the always wrong Al Gore?

  7. Models assumed distancing which Florida was slow and late to implement. These projections include infections that spread before your state locked down (there’s a two week delay from infection to symptoms) The simple fact is that these projections were always guesses. And they WAY overestimated the toll. The IFR is quickly heading to the flu range. The policies implemented aren’t really impacting the spread much, Chicago still has a 20% positive test rate. Ultimately florida will suffer in its LTC and elder communities and not amongst the rest of society. The FL dept of public health data clearly show that this far. As do the data from every other state. 2100 would have to die to equal the death rate for the flu. No politics here. Just data.

  8. The illiberals tried to use their PRESSTITUTES to get the presidential vote they wanted.
    They failed.
    Then they shifted to the legal system. But Donaldus Magnus has replaced a record number of left-wing robes.
    So they failed again.
    Now the illiberals are turning to the education sector, their last autocracy, and putting out all sorts of scare-tactic charts.

  9. This is what happens when you let agenda-driven, taxpayer-funded, grant-dependent “scientists” play with a altered and modified SIMs game…

    No one should believe or react to any of this nonsense. No Informed American should accept any of this until we’re shown empirical data and a side-by-side comparative chart that depicts and compares the “real” year-to-date number of deaths “caused by” Covid-19 here in America… to the year-to-date number of deaths from the common flu, car wrecks, diabetes, cancer, abortion, trip and falls, et al…

    But this will never happen, lest we expose the ruse and manufactured hysteria that is designed to destroy our economy and Republic. Wake up America!

    May God continue to bless and protect America, Her President, Her Constitution, Her Laws, Her Sovereignty, and Her Citizens.

  10. what’s wrong with you people? the numbers went way down because of the social distancing, closures and all that was put in place! the original estimates were at the start if we didn’t do anything about it. but we all did do something about it. so we got the numbers down. open all back up too soon, watch the numbers climb again. this is science, not politics!

    1. The “models” accounted for social distancing. Similar to global warming models, THE MODELS WERE WRONG, point blank. Miami will not be under water in 50 years and 2.2 million people were NEVER going to die from Covid-19.
      Trump’s plan to reopen states in Phases is genius. It accounts for safely reopening our communities. This has been blown way out of proportion and it is costing us our personal freedoms and creating a new crisis by putting thousands/millions out of work. Many others (including myself) have decreased income. If we can slowly ease away from the confinement that has been forced upon us, our normal way of life will start to return. Anyone who can’t see that much of this confinement is less about keeping people safe and more about removing Trump out of office is not looking at all the facts. They are only following the “fake” models that say disaster awaits us if we step outside the house. Can you imagine a world with Joe Biden as POTUS? The man is incoherent in many interviews with friendly press. Would be a complete disaster. Not to mention his years of couruption and accusations of sexual misconduct. This has always been more about politics than safety. So sad.

  11. Um.. folks here’s the thing… FL hasn’t reached the inflection point yet… in layman’s terms… that’s the point when population density, rate of infection and population age have a horrible trifecta and the percentage of increase is exponential… at that point sorry to say, Florida deaths will probably equal or possibly surpass NE numbers currently… so stay home and stay safe cause it’s coming… it’s not so simple math, but it’s the math of an unstoppable disease…

    I am not a troll or leftist.. politics are not my thing… I’m a realist and if you’re paying attn you can see it coming

  12. Unbelievable. it’s the mitigation that’s working and only that that’s been bringing the model numbers down. All of the people that think it’s not that contagious, Please update your posts on here once you go back into the free world and ignore Social distancing and catch a bad case of the virus. Oh, that’s if you’re all still alive to do so. Duh!

  13. The models still say over 4,000 will die. That’s considering that Florida is thought to be 3 full weeks away from its peak. And that’s with everyone cooperating and social distancing. Further, the testing that exists takes days of delays to publish and may very well be understating reality.

    So, add in a Trumpie bonehead like DeSantis who wants to ease successful containment efforts and we will see skyrocketing infections and death rates. You gotta wonder about someone who thinks professional wrestling is an “essential business.” Hilarious.

    It is thought that areas like The Villages, with a population ripe for Coronvirus fatalities, are still going to be a bloodbath.

    And, contrary to what DeSantis states, young people DO get the disease and die of it, too.

    Protect your lives over the economy or no one will be alive to have one.

    1. Stay in your closet and let the rest of us live our lives. The mortality rate is trending to the same rate as the common flu which is one tenth of one percent. Did we ever close down for the common flu. You have to think rational instead of fear.

  14. The numbers have fone down because of mitigation measures (stay at home) and shutdowns… social distancing. The numbers projected were based on doing nothing. We did something, numbers are lower, and the ignorant cry wolf on media saying “there was never a problem”… I wonder how some people manage to make it through a single day and still be alive by sun set.

    1. AGREED. People took it seriously .. we did the necessary things, and prevented a bad outcome successfully… Thanks be to God! Some (maybe many) people have WAY too many political axes to grind.

  15. I hope this does not turn out to be “The little CNN/CBS/NBC/DEM etc, that cried ‘Wolf'”. That would make it the co$tliest April Fools prank of several centuries.

  16. Originally projected to be 6,766 deaths, but now that projection is only 1,363. That’s almost an 80% reduction!!!!! How could the so-called experts be so wrong? What changed? What changed is that some conservative media sources like Tallahassee Reports started calling BS on the original projections, and demanded to know how these projections were being calculated. Once the pressure started, and the liberal experts couldn’t justify their extravagant findings, all of a sudden the numbers started coming down. It was never going to be as bad as originally touted by the liberal media. Now, even that idiot CEO at TMRMC, O’Bryant, is starting to have to walk back his original projections. Typical liberal.

    Long story short, folks, from the very beginning the liberal media were going to do their best to make it sound as dire as they could in the hopes that people would come to blame President Trump, and the government could implement more and more control measures over the population. And then when hard working Americans started to demand proof that things were really as bad as being projected, the libs had no choice but to start walking back their panic and fear tactics.

    Many thanks to Mr. Stewart, Tallahassee Reports, and other conservative media outlets who had the guts to tell the Emperor (the liberal media) he’s not wearing any clothes. Are you listening Tallahassee Democrat and WCTV? You did your best to instill panic and fear, but the smart people aren’t listening to you any longer.

    1. Excellent post, Jason.
      Could not have said it better myself. I’m giving you The Maven’s Gold Star of Approval. ?

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