Neighborhood Analysis of Three City Commission Races

Neighborhood Analysis of Three City Commission Races

Provided below are three maps that provide a detailed look at the geographical source of votes for the candidates in the three city commission races.

The information provides details related to the level of support for each candidate by precinct.

Maps are provided by Matthew Isbell, follow him here.

The Matlow-Bellamy Race

Incumbent City Commissioner Jeremy Matlow beat challenger David Bellamy 55.8% to 44.2% in the August primary.

The Matlow-Bellamy map, provided below, resembles the vote distribution of a classic liberal-conservative match-up.

Bellamy secured Republican areas outside of Capital Circle like Ox Bottom, Summerbrooke, Killearn Estates and Southwood.

However, with the notable exception of the Waverly and Woodgate neighborhoods, Bellamy was unable to attract enough voters from traditionally Democrat areas, especially those on the southside.

City Commissioner Dianne Williams-Cox Wins Primary

Incumbent City Commissioner Dianne Williams-Cox was able to overcome two opponents and avoid a runoff by winning 52.2% of the primary vote.

Unlike Bellamy, Dianne Williams-Cox was able to build a coalition between Northeast and southside voters.

The map below shows support for Williams-Cox (green to dark green) in the Northeast. The Northeast coalition included Betton Hills, a neighborhood Matlow won in his race with Bellamy.

The southside areas going strong for Williams-Cox included Jake Gaither, Springsax and Bond neighborhoods. These were neighborhoods that Matlow carried easily.

The inset of the map below – “Cox vs Opposition” – shows the area where her “progressive” opponents garnered the most support. This area is north and east of downtown inside Capital Circle. The neighborhoods in this area include Indian Head Acres, Myers Park and Lafayette Park.

The Tallahassee Mayor Race

Leon County Commissioner Kristin Dozier finished ahead of incumbent Mayor John Dailey with 46.1% of the primary vote. Dailey garnered 45.7% of the vote. Two lesser known candidates – Whitfield Leland and Michael Ibrahim -combined to capture 7.2% of the vote.

Like Marcelin and Green, Dozier was able to secure votes from the “progressive” neighborhoods at a level similar to Matlow’s margins.

Like Williams-Cox, Dailey was able to build a coalition with Northeast and southside voters.

So why didn’t Dailey follow the path to victory like Williams-Cox?

The map inset below – “Votes for Other Candidates” – shows that Daily lost neighborhoods carried by Williams-Cox that were located on the southside of the Florida State University campus in the West Pensacola – Gaines Street corridor.

Dailey also lost neighborhoods – which Williams-Cox carried – north of Tharpe Street and south of I-10.

The inset map below, Votes for Other Candidates, shows that Leland and Ibrahim received a majority of their votes from the areas that Dailey lost but Williams-Cox won.

How these areas vote in the general election will be one of the many factors that will determine who wins between Dailey and Dozier in November.

12 Responses to "Neighborhood Analysis of Three City Commission Races"

  1. Pat, thank you for the excellent, honest comment-our city is in serious trouble and so is our school system! But of course the leaders (and leader hopefuls) will continue to gaslight the public (and the majority of the idiots will blindly believe them) until it’s too late and we are another Portland or New York City.

  2. I don’t care for the progressive candidates much at all. They’re too much in favor of welfare programs for the poor who likely deserve their lot. However, I care even less for conservative candidates that are too much in favor of welfare for the rich who have the means to pay for it already. That’s likely why Dailey is done come November.

  3. Ummmm… well, I agree 100% with what Pat A said… We are way past the time for some serious tough love and a heavy dose of reality. As I’ve said many times… “You will never solve a problem you refuse to recognize.”

    Well done, Pat… well done

  4. Until crime and a ton more of taxpayer dollars are wasted on the black community to no avail, Tallahassee will continue down the road of not addressing the root cause of the problems that face in our community. Every black youth arrested is guaranteed a second, third, fourth chance. You cannot educate someone that stopped learning at age 10 and a couple years later dropped out of school. If you want a look into the future, look at Washington State, California and New York. Tons of money is rolling into our community to sway the vote toward progressive candidates. The mayor race is like do you want shot in the left foot or right..they both suck. The community is hindered by all the loser attorneys that couldn’t make it in the real world that have become commissioners and judges on campaign promises not to put your child in prison.

    Homelessness. One year ago, I complained to the City about Lake Ella…as of today-no change. Oh, the Sheriff made his deputies introduce themselves to the bums that are destroying Lake Ella but that is about it. WTF! Enough are ready. Stop telling the losers in our community that their failure isn’t their fault. It is their fault. They didn’t try to succeed, and they are losers. If you cannot afford—insert whatever, just look in the mirror to find who is responsible. Stop letting criminals off 3, 4 5 times before they get prison time. Get the fire trucks out and hose down those homeless camps that stink and destroy our community.

    And the stupidity of the city with their quest to replace all their vehicles with battery powered vehicles. I saw a receipt for $28,000.00 a lady paid to have the batteries replaced on her EV. EV vehicles are a novelty and are not practical. And if Crist and his wacko running mate are elected-adios Florida living. Welcome to California style crime and taxes.

    So. stop sugar coating the issues that the taxpayer faces in Tallahassee (note I didn’t say those that don’t pay anything) and let’s get something done. If you do not work, you do not eat. There are only two sexes and the mentally ill are lobbying for a million genders. Stop trying to tell children that your perverted lifestyle is OKAY, it isn’t.

    Tell your sheriff and police chief to reduce their SOP back to 30 pages and stop Monday morning quarterbacking the cop’s decision. A cop has 1 second to decide what to do. The wacko leftest in the community review the cop’s actions for weeks amongst 2 dozen people then say, the cop f’d up. Really, If I have 2 dozen people and 2 weeks to decide what to do, I may have done it differently.

    Anyway Tallahassee, we are facing the total destruction of the life we worked so hard to achieve. Liberals are lazy, they don’t try hard and they want us to pay for everything they want. Screw um is what I say. We all came into the world equal. Some people tried and some people didn’t,

    Go ahead and censor me.

  5. If you erase the outliers, Matlow still wins by a lot. He was a good candidate at the end of the day. Probably a waste of time to try him again in 26, as Bellamy had all the resources in the world.

    He wisely opposed Dailey’s CSC property tax increase which will keep him in good stead with Northeast and conservative voters for years to come. One reason Dailey will likely lose NE and city-wide by a fair %, plus Dailey’s support for Welaunee and Doak.

  6. Bellamy and Dailey Loss Analysis

    – Picked wrong campaign manager, Reggie Cardozo who had affiliations with Scott Maddox.

    – Filed election complaints against their opponents.

    – Went negative against their opponents.

    – Accepted “bundled contributions” from developers and special interests.

    – Bellamy tried to play the Republican AND Democrat card and nobody bought it.

    – Dailey was weighted down by the $27 million dollar stadium giveaway

    – Dailey exclaiming he made “sweeping” ethics reforms when he’s taking contributions as rewards for boondoggles at taxpayers expense.

    – Low voter turnout

    Two Democrats, one weighted down with campaign mistakes/no record of accomplishments and the other against the $27 million giveaway with the wind at their back. November will be interesting.

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