One measures party strength by evaluating party voter registration, party identification, party turnout, and party performance. This can be done at the local, state, and national level.
This column will address voter registration and party performance.
From the last day of 2020 through June 2nd of this year in Leon County Republican registration went up a total of twenty-nine voters (0.1%). Democratic Party registration dropped by 16,195 for a negative 14.2% (one in seven of those registered in 2020 left). Meanwhile minority party registration went up by 2,621 for an 88.1% increase while non-partisan registration went up 2,140 for an increase of 5.4%. Overall voter registration dropped 11,405 for a negative 5.3% mainly because of the massive loss among Democratic voters.
While the Leon County Democratic Party has held public workshops this year which one might think would increase party identification, Democratic voter registration from January 1st of this year dropped by 1,029 voters. The do-nothing local Republican party gained six voters this year for an average of one a month which is in marginally better than its monthly rate of increase over the last five years.
A few months ago an apologist for the Leon County Democratic Party stated Leon County is a bright spot when compared to Florida’s over all Democratic performance. Not emphasized at all by this spin master was that his own numbers showed that in the last seven Presidential elections the gap in Leon County between Democratic and Republican performance was the worst ever in 2024.
Athletes, corporations and cities prefer to compare their performance against similar or higher talented competitors rather than against underperforming and weaker competitors.
So I compared the capital county of Florida’s Democratic performance in the last nine presidential elections to the capital counties of all the other southern states. Compared to their overall state averages, all the capital counties have a higher proportion of professional class workers, universities, in most instance a more diverse demographical profile, and a higher Democratic voting performance when compared to their statewide numbers.
The 2024 Democratic percentage performance margin over Republican performance in Leon County was 21.6%.
This is worse than the 2024 Democratic margins over Republican in the capital counties of Alabama (30.6%), Arkansas (22.1%), Georgia (44.5%), Mississippi (45.9%), North Carolina (25.4%), South Carolina (34.6%), Tennessee (27.4%), Texas (39.3%), and Virginia (65.9%).
The only state capital that did worse than Leon County in 2024 was Louisiana (11.1%).
The Ryan Ray 2024 record compared to other state capitals is one win and nine losses. In 2020 the record under the previous chair was 3-7.
In 1996, the last Presidential election while I was chair the record among the state capitals was seven wins and three losses. In 1992 the record was also 7-3.
Jon M. Ausman is the longest serving Chair of the Leon County Democratic Party in Leon County’s history (April 1980 to January 2000). He can be reached at 850-321-7799 or at ausman@embarqmail.com.
In the Arena: Where Leon County Democrats Rank added by Staff on
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“Overall voter registration dropped 11,405 for a negative 5.3% mainly because of the massive loss among Democratic voters.”
My questions are:
In 2022, How many Kids turned 18 in time to Vote and how many of them Registered to Vote?
In 2023, How many Kids turned 18 in time to Vote and how many of them Registered to Vote?
In 2024, How many Kids turned 18 in time to Vote and how many of them Registered to Vote?
In 2025, How many Kids WILL turn 18 in time to Vote and how many of them will Register to Vote?
Could there be fewer Kids turning 18 and that’s why your numbers are dropping?
71 years old man still posting prom picture. Reminisce bout good old days.
I find this fascinating. Tell us more.
Maybe what it feel like to be super-delegate who give vote for Joe Biden.
We get Kamala, but don’t get to vote.
Same thing happen in 2008.
How this work? Perhaps you can make graph?
Micah 6 : 8
“He hath shewed thee, O man, what is good; and what doth the LORD require of thee, but to do justly, to love mercy, and to walk humbly with thy God?”
Friends: Left, Right, and Undecided- this is the standard, not the latest poll.
Do justly. Protect the unborn and the poor with equal fervor. Justice is not a party prize- it’s God’s command.
Love mercy. Help the hurting, evn silently. Don’t turn their pain into talking points.
Walk humbly. Let the light of Scripture, not ego, shine on every decision, political and personal.
If we start here, real reform will surely follow. We pray God’s mercy til judgment comes.