This Monday night at 7:30 p.m. on ESPN the Seminoles will host the #19 SMU Mustangs. The Mustangs finished the 2025 with a 9-4 record. The only time these two programs played was in ’24, SMU won 42-16.
Observations from the last game
The defense gave up ten (10/17) 3rd down conversions to NM St. The defense was unable to get a pass rush on most of these plays and when they put pressure on the quarterback the opposing receivers found holes in the zone defense. Once FSU went to man coverage the defense was able to get more stops. The NM State quarterback Trey Hedden played a lot better than most analysts predicted.
The offensive line did a good job in the run game but had trouble pass blocking especially in in obvious passing situations. Ousmane Kromah had 115 yards rushing. Singleton, Wisner and Daniels combined for 106 yards as well.
Florida State offense versus SMU defense
SMU has had a tough time defending the pass the past few years and I think that trend will continue this season. The Mustangs were 134th in the FBS in passing yards given up per game in ’25. If the offensive line can give Ashton Daniels time, he should be able to lead the offense down the field. Duce Robinson, Micahi Danzy and the rest of the receivers should have a very productive game. Hopefully success in the passing game will give Kromah, Singleton and Wisner some room on the ground. He didn’t show it against New Mexico State, but I expect Norvell to have more two back formations against SMU.
Florida State defense versus SMU offense
Three year starting quarterback, Kevin Jennings, leads the Mustang offense. Jennings has thrown for 7,709 yards, 55 touchdowns and 26 interceptions in his career. He also is a force in the ground game with 558 yards rushing and 10 TDs.
The offensive line returns a good bit of experience and should be a strength of the team once again. SMU has a talented back field with Kendrick Raphael leading the charge, but they are looking for a breakout player from the receiver group or their transfer tight ends including former Seminole, Randy Pittman.
The Florida State defense needs stop the run on early downs and get a pass rush on 3rd down. The Desir brothers and Ryland Kennedy are the key pass rushers, and they must improve upon the opener. The ‘Noles got a great contribution off the bench from Jalen Anderson, so I expect him to get more snaps this week.
Special Teams
Advantage: Florida State
Prediction
I think SMU’s experienced offense is going to be too much for the FSU defense and put a lot of pressure on Daniels and the offense to keep up. Jennings and Daniels have been known to turn the ball over in their careers so if FSU can win the turnover battle they could get the upset.
Florida State 27 SMU 34
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