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Posted on September 7, 2015
We have had a number of readers ask about the cyclical nature of the Leon county job market.
More specifically, we have had readers ask if the decline in employment in 2015 is consistent with the yearly cyclical trends evident over the last few years.
TR decided to take a look.
The chart below shows a the graph of Leon county employment for the last three years ( 2012-light blue, 2013-yellow, & 2014-pink) and the first seven months of 2015 (dark blue). The cyclical trends are quite obvious from 2012-2014.
The cyclical trend can be described as adding jobs in first part of the year, February through April, losing jobs from May through July and adding jobs again from August through October.
However, while the February to April time shows job growth in 2012, 2013, & 2014, no such trend is evident in 2015.
The bar graph below shows how “out of cycle” the significant loss of jobs in Leon county was during the first of this year, from February to April.
The previous three years added over 1,800 jobs during this period, while during 2015, Leon county lost almost 2,000 jobs.
The graph above shows that 2015 has been consistent with the downward trend from May through July evident in prior years.
However, the bar graph below shows that during 2015, Leon county has lost significantly more jobs than any of the previous three years during the “down” period from May through July.
So what about the next five months of 2015?
Based on the cyclical trends, Leon county has added a significant amount of jobs from the August through October time period.
Also, based on the previous three years, Leon county has ended the year with approximately 3,500 more jobs that it started with over the last three years.
Will this happen again this year?
To finish up 2015 with 3,500 more jobs than was reported in January of 2015, Leon county would have to add approximately 7,000 jobs during the “up-cycle” period from August to October.
The bar graph above shows that adding 7,000 jobs during this “up-cycle” period is significantly more than has been added during this period over the last three years.
Tallahassee Reports will publish the next employment report near the end of this month.